Tag: Phoenix

10 examples to counter weather weaponization

How do the people pushing the doom and gloom explain this track record?

From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

I refer you to this May 23 post, which forecasted the hysteria you see now in the media.

https://www.cfact.org/2024/05/23/the-summer-offensive-on-climate-ramping-up

But how many people being bombarded by this actually read this blog or hear anything that runs counter to the mass attack of one-sided ideas you are seeing?

How do the people pushing the doom and gloom explain this track record?

So, in no particular order, let’s outline some counters.

1) The Pacific hurricane season.

The Pacific Basin is much larger than the Atlantic and has almost 4 times the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Index of the Atlantic. ( 432). The Atlantic Basin averages 122. So, if you want to use tropical cyclones as a barometer of how bad it is getting, how come the last 4 years have found the Pacific so far below normal ( last year did reach an average ACE in the west Pac, but a near record low number of storms).

After all, the water is so warm,

So why is the western Pacific  25% of the average, the eastern Pacific 0%, and perhaps on the way to breaking the record for the latest development? ( The West Pac was a top 5 late development this year). And why aren’t we hearing about this? Globally, we are at 75% of average, and even tho I expect the hyper-Atlantic season, I don’t think it will be enough to take the global Ace above average. There has been no increase in this, and the lowering overall is to be expected. Tropical cyclones are nature’s way of taking heat off to the tropics and redistributing it to the temperate regions. I have been arguing for 2 decades that a warming world is not the harbinger of an orgy of attacks, as only one basin is liable to be active. What is the need for hyperactivity if the heat is already distributed? The warmer north waters change the global wind oscillation, sea level pressure, and vertical velocity patterns, arguing for less, not more, activity. The Atlantic, a much smaller basin, can take up some of the slack. The configuration of the cold La Nina, the very warm Main Development region, and the colder water off the US southeast coast will cause the focus to create the storms (and, of course, the hysteria)in our part of the world.) Meanwhile, the largest source of tropical activity is likely to be well below normal and offset it. But what will you hear about? Why is no one bringing up that the warming is working AGAINST storms in the largest basin?

2) Oh Canada

See what is going on here

Environment Canada put out a red paint bomb for their summer GUIDANCE. This is not a forecast; it is a probability of an occurrence, and there is a big difference as if it meets their criteria for above normal, whatever that may be,  it verifies. However, probabilities are not a measurable metric in real time. If an occurrence is taking place or has taken place, it is either 0 or 100. So, a forecast is ACTUAL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO AVERAGE, not just showing probabilities. In any case, for June, the US models had this temperature forecast from June 21, when entries are due, for instance, in our weatherbell.com forecast contest.

These are increments of .5C,1C,2C 3C.  So, it is a forecast.

That forecast is not even close. The month so far:

And the rest of the month.

That is going to be a big hole to dig out from for the entire summer.

If you think that’s bad, look where the climate model is ranked in our contest.

The climate models are the last 2 for the US as the human touch is beating it like Scarlett Ohara beat her mule ( The Forecast is Gone with the Wind).

3)Look at the difference in how Canadian weather presenters are presenting temperatures. The top in 2018 had similar temperatures as a more recent example, but look at what the recent example looks like below.

In fact, the flaming red colors are lower than the example above.

4) While we are up north, let’s look at arctic temperatures.

Yet another year of arctic temps near normal in the height of the melt season (normal temperature north of 80 north being about 34). While all the warming is in the colder months, pointing the finger at Water vapor, not CO2, due to the correlations of WV to temp ( NO SUCH THING EXISTS FOR CO2, YOU KNOW WHY?  BECAUSE THERE IS NONE).

So, how is the ice cap going to disappear if it is barely above freezing? Try melting a block of ice at 33 degrees and see how long it takes. But, of course, that does not discourage these people. They simply lie or are ignorant, and why not? No one calls them on it.

5). Arctic Sea ice right now; dark blue is above the 2011-2020 mean (light blue) and above 2006 when Al Gore was making predictions about it being gone and getting a Nobel prize for his climate propaganda movie. Can someone in the media stop with the Hunter Biden laptop strategy of hiding this stuff on climate and call him on it?

https://www.cfact.org/2023/05/20/the-hunter-biden-laptop-comparison-to-climate

6)The Canary in the Coal Mine, according to this ilk, is the Greenland Ice Cap. If there is record melting, it is because there is record snow. Yet another year looking like it wants to get above average, given the forecast for the next 45 days.

Shockingly, it snows so much in Greenland in summer (sarc). But you would think the way the melting is pushed, it does not. The average person knows little about Greenland’s climate, so when they hear all this stuff, guess what they think?

7) Very cool India through SE Asia

We have heard enough about the early season heat in SE ASIA and in May and early June in India. But the monsoon is developing.

And it will be a strong one this year, similar to 2005,2017,2020.

(Which is linked to the active Atlantic hurricane season we have forecasted.)

And so look what happens to temperatures, a very cool 45-day period.

You’ll hear about any flooding or, of course, the hurricanes, but not the cool turnaround. (BTW, the warmest 45-day period of the year in New Delhi is May 1 -to June 15 when it’s dry, and the average high is around 107 at the highest.) It is like Phoenix being 108 in mid-summer (its average), so if it gets 2 above normal, you hear about it hitting 110 as if it never happened before.

8) How hot was last summer in Phoenix?

June was quite cool.

July was torrid.

August backed off.

Summer was brutal overall from New Mexico to Louisiana.

But for much of the nation, it was a wash.

How about precip? Well, in a big country, you expect wet and dry areas.

And we got it. In fact, one can argue the extreme event was it was about as balanced a summer as you can have. Places very wet ( New England and parts of the Rockies) and very dry (N plains and Texas). But you want to see extreme? How about the summers of 1934 and 1936?

Temps

precip

9)And what about this June that you are made to believe is a sign of extremes?

June 34,36

I am adding perspective. As I mentioned in the last blog, my company has warned clients and subscribers and shown as much as I can that we expect a top 5 hot JAS, but the point is that perspective needs to be added, so one can see precedent to years when co2 was not the monster its made out to be.

https://www.cfact.org/2024/06/19/if-you-are-dry-you-fry-in-the-summer-naturally

And finally, my last stop on this tour. My favorite hammer I like to use when asking people about how the method of CO2 warming, the back radiation that penetrates only the top mm or 2 of the ocean, causes the ocean to warm. In this case — a shocking warming in 2 months around Australia.

In November, the forecast for around Australia was fine for a cold winter with the warm water to the west and a cooler look to the east.

This would support the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is crucial for winter in the colder phases ( 8,1,2). The warmer phases are 4/5/6. SSTs are crucial to its intensity and phases. All the warm water around Africa and into the India ocean encourages the colder phases.

And then the geothermal input hit (it can’t be anything but that; it wasn’t the sun, and it certainly wasn’t CO2).

That is an amazing regional bust, right in line with what Dr. Wyss Yim talks about in his underwater heatwave ideas.

You can see, like almost all of us, the acknowledgment that humans may have something to do with it, but it pales compared to solar and geothermal.

But that warm water around Australia encourages lower pressure and more upward motion further east, and yanking the MJO phases into the dreaded (if you like snow and cold) phases 4/5/6. The models had no idea because our buoy saturation only goes down to 6k, and we have it on every 112k square miles. So where did it come from? It did not come from atmospheric interaction because the models would have seen it. It is not magic. It had to be input from below.

The MJO wound up in the warm phases. Remember major cold came in January early, but like Lucy pulling the football from Charley Brown, the sudden warming killed it.

The other models missed it, too. Here are the Japanese Meteorological Agency temperatures in November.

So it had a monster winter forecasted ( which I agreed with)

But look what happened.

All this against an El Nino analog that said it should be cool there, and supported the cooler phases of the MJO.

It Destroyed my winter forecast, but on the other hand re-enforces what has to be going on with geothermal. It can’t be from anything else.

Now, these 10 examples serve a purpose: to give perspective to all this and to try to show all that is going on, not just selective agenda-driven ideas. People in the meteorological media won’t even touch this stuff. (Is lack of information misinformation, which they certainly are guilty of by not showing all the facts?) Yet it’s all there, and if you want the why behind the what, you need all the information. The Green New Deal continues to cause global chaos and they know they are likely one administration away from closing the door on reversing this. Such things are hidden because the rational, open-minded person might frame the narrative in a way that leads to questioning, and that’s the last thing people, who are engaged in weather weaponization, want to see.

No, BBC, It Was Not An Extreme Heatwave In Phoenix

As usual the BBC rely on Weather Attribution models which are clearly fraudulent, and designed for propaganda purposes only. Given that this heatwave was not even extreme, the rest of the claim is plainly a con-trick.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolk

More heatwave fake news from the BBC:

Human-induced climate change made recent extreme heat in the US south-west, Mexico and Central America around 35 times more likely, scientists say.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group studied excess heat between May and early June, when the US heatwave was concentrated in south-west states including California, Nevada and Arizona.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czvvqdg8zxno

Temperatures in Phoenix reached a high of 113F during early June:

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

The BBC know they can fool some people who don’t realise temperatures like these are normal in places like Phoenix.

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

The record June temperature was 122F in 1990, and thirty years since 1933 have had higher temperatures than 113F in June:

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

As for the length of the heatwave, Phoenix has had four days over 110F so far in June. In June 1974 they had eighteen!

As usual the BBC rely on Weather Attribution models which are clearly fraudulent, and designed for propaganda purposes only. Given that this heatwave was not even extreme, the rest of the claim is plainly a con-trick.

Summer in the City, 2023: Record Phoenix Warmth Not Reflected in Surrounding Weather Station Data

From  Roy Spencer, PhD.

September 29th, 2023 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Ah, the 1960s. Even in 1966, before global warming was a thing, The Lovin’ Spoonful was singing about (among other things) the unusual heat of the inner city.

In fact, the heat caused by urban environments was discussed way back in 1833 (190 years ago!) by Luke Howard (The Climate of London) who was the first to document the urban heat island (UHI) effect.

Today, virtually anyone who routinely travels between cities and rural areas has observed the localized warmth that cities produce.

It is important to emphasize that the UHI effect, along with “record warm” temperatures, would exist even if there was no “global warming”. This is because cities have grown substantially in the last 100+ years, replacing the native landscape with high heat capacity surfaces like buildings, pavement, and sources of waste heat. This leads to UHI warmth of up to 10 deg. F or more, mostly at night.

Yet, we are routinely told through media reports that the latest record warmth recorded in some of our cities shows how serious the global warming problem has become. For example, as shown in this graphic from the Miami Herald, the summer of 2023 experienced some record warmth in cities across the South.

Of course, conflating the urban heat island with global warming is a necessary component of such reporting, as the news report dutifully adds,

“Prominent scientific institutions around the globe including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agree that the warming is caused mainly by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, NASA said.”

See how that works? A city has record warmth, so it must be due to global warming caused by burning fossil fuels. To be fair, not all the blame is always placed at the feet of Climate Change. For example, this 2014 article specifically discussed the role of the urban heat island in Phoenix weather.

Now, it is true that the southern U.S. had an unusually hot summer. Even our (UAH) satellite-based temperature product for the lower atmosphere showed this warmth in August:

In my last blog post, I showed our urbanization-adjusted average summer temperatures (based upon NOAA homogenized GHCN surface air temperatures) across all available stations in the Lower 48 states, and the result was that summer of 2023 was the 13th warmest (see Fig. 3 here) since records began (but with very few stations) in 1895.

But what role does climate change have in these records at selected cities? Most of what we hear through the media comes from urban reporting stations, or at least airports serving major urban areas.

The Summer of 2023: Phoenix versus Surrounding Stations

If the record hot summer in Phoenix is due to global warming, then it should show up at weather stations surrounding Phoenix, right? As part of our research project where we are quantifying the average urban heat island effect and its growth over time as a function of population density, I looked at the official NOAA GHCN monthly surface temperature data at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport (red curve in the following graph) versus at all rural stations (0 to 100 persons per sq. km) within 10 to 100 km of Phoenix (blue curve). I also applied a small urbanization adjustment correction at the rural (or nearly-rural) stations based upon their individual histories of population growth.

The result? The summer of 2023 was only the 11th warmest summer on record.

So, we see that the urban heat island effect was the dominant cause of the summer of 2023 being a record warm year in Phoenix. The “vote” from surrounding rural and nearly-rural stations was that it was only the 11th warmest year. As a side note, the difference between the red and blue curves indicate a jump in Phoenix Sky Harbor temperatures of about 0.7 deg. F around 1988. This could be due to a weather station move, but I have not investigated it.

“But”, you might protest, “even the rural stations still show a strong warming trend”. Well, that is partly because I have used only “homogenized” temperature data, which NOAA has already adjusted to some extent leading to all nearby station temperature trends being more or less equal to one another. I’m still trying to determine if I can use the “raw” data to make such comparisons, since there are other data adjustments made in NOAA’s homogenization of the data that I’m not privy to.

Another thing to notice is that media reports will repeat NOAA’s claim that these new high temperature records are based upon data extending back to 1895. In general, this is not true. Most of these station records don’t go back nearly that far. For the Phoenix Sky Harbor location, the data started in 1933. A few of the other “record hot cities” start dates I’ve looked at so far are Miami, FL (started in 1948), Houston, TX (1931), and Mobile, AL (1948).

The bottom line is that there are unsupportable conclusions being drawn about the supposed role of climate change in record high temperatures being reported at some cities. Cities are hotter than their rural surroundings, and increasingly so, with or without climate change.

Shock News–Pavements Get Hot In Summer!

Of course, if Guardian journalists understood why roads and pavements get hot in summer, they would also appreciate why urban areas get much hotter than rural ones, and that the temperatures they regularly trumpet for cities like Phoenix are not representative.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

On a sunny day in mid-May, Bobby Hunt fell asleep by the side of a gas station in Phoenix. Hunt says he was waiting for a friend to pick him up.

“Next thing I know, I wake up in the hospital.”

Hunt was in a burn unit. He doesn’t remember much, just the bright lights.

“What am I doing here?” he recalled asking.

Almost three months later, Hunt stands in the empty chapel of Circle the City, the central Phoenix medical shelter for unhoused people where he’s been recuperating. He lifts his white T-shirt to reveal a lopsided, round scar the size of a medium pizza.

The burn appears to be about an inch deep, and mars the swath of intricate, black-inked tattoos of skulls and faces that once covered his back.

Below the big scar, a bandage covers another wound on his lower back. Hunt pulls the leg of his khaki shorts up to reveal a large, red rectangle where skin from his thigh was removed and grafted on to his back. He’s still in terrible pain.

Temperatures in the city of Phoenix reached at least 110F (43.3C) for 31 days in a row this summer. But even on a 98F (37C) day, like the one when Hunt was injured, sustained contact with the sidewalk can result in third degree burns – and potentially kill a person.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/28/phoenix-arizona-heatwave-burns-sidewalks-climate-crisis

The Guardian seems surprised that roads can get so hot in summer. Even here you would be advised not to walk barefoot on roads when it is hot. And the fact that this injury occurred in May when temperatures reached 98F says all you need to know about this latest pathetic little story. Phoenix temperatures tend to be at that level and a lot higher pretty much all summer:

The highest temperature there this year has been 119F, well below the record of 122 set in 1990.

The daily data profile is also noteworthy, as it shows that temperatures so far this summer have only been exceptionally high for about a two-week period in July, and a handful of days this month:

Dieses Bild hat ein leeres alt-Attribut; sein Dateiname ist image-1093.png

Of course, if Guardian journalists understood why roads and pavements get hot in summer, they would also appreciate why urban areas get much hotter than rural ones, and that the temperatures they regularly trumpet for cities like Phoenix are not representative.

CFACT Collegians at Grand Canyon University hike Camelback Mountain

CFACT Collegians is the only national group solely dedicated to educating college students about the facts behind climate change, energy, and more.

From CFACT

By Adam Houser

Attendees of CFACT’s hike make their way up one of the Camelback Mountain trails.

The CFACT Collegians group at Grand Canyon University in Phoenix, AZ organized a hike of Camelback Mountain to encourage an appreciation of stewardship of nature among club members. While it is important to spread the facts about issues like climate change, energy, and property rights, it is equally as important to help students appreciate the environment they are working to protect through free market principles.

“We hiked camelback mountain, a tough hike about 20 minutes from campus,” event organizer Farrell Sessler said. “One of the quotes from the girls was, ‘Being in nature and on this hike is like a breath of fresh air. There is nothing better than getting away from campus and being in God’s creation.’”

According to the park website, the area is “part of the Phoenix Mountains Preserve, Camelback gets its name from its two rock formations that resemble the head and back of a kneeling camel. It became a city park in 1968, and sits right next to Phoenix’s Arcadia neighborhood — a great dining spot — and the town of Paradise Valley.”

CFACT coalition members pose for a photo mid-hike on the trail.

Among the things students can experience on the hike are various flora and fauna, including “native species such as the desert tortoise, Chuckwalla lizard, cottontail rabbits, and rattlesnakes (hike with caution). Plant species include the saguaro, cholla and prickly pear cacti, as well as native trees such as mesquite and palo verde,” according to the park website again.

Look for the CFACT coalition at Grand Canyon University to organize even more impactful events regarding stewardship, climate change, and more in the weeks to come.

CFACT Collegians is the only national group solely dedicated to educating college students about the facts behind climate change, energy, and more.

This article originally appeared on the CFACT Collegians website.

Author

  • Adam HouserAdam Houser
  • Adam Houser coordinates student leaders as National Director of CFACT’s collegians program and writes on issues of climate and energy.