Tag: Paris Agreement’s Article 4

What’s going to happen at COP30?

Less than a year ago I posted a short article asking the above question, but about COP29. Although it may seem a little early to post this, there’s so much going on in the world regarding climate issues today, not least the implications of Trump’s arrival in the White House, posting this now would seem to be appropriate. Indeed, there are already some COP30 related items appearing on the COP29 thread.

From Climate Scepticism

By Robin Guenier

The West (– the US) vs. The Rest (+ the US)

Less than a year ago I posted a short article asking the above question, but about COP29. Although it may seem a little early to post this, there’s so much going on in the world regarding climate issues today, not least the implications of Trump’s arrival in the White House, posting this now would seem to be appropriate. Indeed, there are already some COP30 related items appearing on the COP29 thread.

As I said last year, having studied climate issues going back to the 1950s, I’ve followed UN climate negotiations in detail since 2007. My conclusion is simple: if global greenhouse gas emissions are to be cut substantially – as we are told is necessary if humanity is to avoid potential catastrophe – the overriding issue, far more important than any domestic concern, is whether or not the governments of major non-Western economies are willing to act accordingly. Yet they’ve shown, and continue to show, scant in interest in so doing. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is hardly going to help.

I set out the evidence and reasons for this failure in an essay published in 2020. Nothing that’s happened since 2020 changes my conclusion. The ‘Dubai Stocktake’ agreed at COP28 in 2023 for example if anything reinforced it: the opening paragraph of its item 28 stating that Parties’ ‘global efforts’ should take ‘into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances’ and item 38 repeated the Paris Agreement’s Article 4, unambiguously confirming developing countries’ exemption from any emission reduction obligation. That’s a perfect example of what always happens at these conferences: words are inserted in the concluding communiques or agreements letting developing countries off the hook. And COP29 turned out to be a total failure with nothing of substance or even of much interest being agreed.

So what’s going to happen at COP30?

Well, it’s supposed to be an especially important Conference as it will be held ten years since the adoption of the ‘landmark’ Paris Agreement. Moreover, 2025 is the year when Parties are required to submit their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – setting out targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and showing how they will reach them. These new NDCs have been described by Simon Stiell, executive director of UN Climate Change, as ‘among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century’.

The deadline for submission was 10 February. However only ten countries (all of which, apart from the USA, Brazil and the UK, are relatively insignificant) will achieve that. And, as the USA is no longer relevant and Brazil is the COP30 host, the whole thing would seem to be getting off to a particularly poor start. The plan now is to defer the deadline until September. But that will leave very little time for the UN to produce its planned assessment of expected emission reductions, which is supposed be the key document informing the Conference.

Will the Parties – especially big emitters such as China, India and Russia – meet the new deadline? And, if they do, will they produce NDCs that include credible emission-cutting targets? We’ll see – but, in view of past experience, it’s hard to be especially optimistic.

Robin Guenier – February 2025

COP 29 Day 3: Brazil submits Climate Action Plan, Argentina packs up, go’s home

Day three at the COP meeting in Azerbaijan saw a pair of Latin American nations take center stage.

People walk by a sign for COP29, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Baku, Azerbaijan, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

From CFACT

By Craig Rucker

Day three at the COP meeting in Azerbaijan saw a pair of Latin American nations take center stage.

First it was Brazil, which put forward a climate action plan that outlines how it intends to cut its carbon emissions by 2035. Under the Paris Agreement, each nation is supposed to update their climate commitments, dubbed Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years. Call it a homework assignment by the UN school masters. Up to this point, however, few have done so and have only submitted plans to 2030. Technically speaking, they have until next year to turn them in, but it is not entirely sure what will be the consequences if they don’t. Our guess … detention?

CFACT staff took a brief look at the plan from Brazil’s leftist government, and let’s just say we were “underwhelmed”. In its first two guiding principles, the document only offers vague generalities, such as:

1. promoting sustainable development in its many dimensions, considering strategic sectors and themes for the country, with a view to reducing inequalities and to a just transition;

2. promoting climate justice based on the dimensions of gender, race, ethnicity, age, social class and other factors that influence vulnerability;

Guided by principles like these, Brazil claims it is setting up for itself new targets to slash emissions 67% by 2035 (As a sidenote, Brazil had previously set a target of a 53% reduction by 2030). More specifically, the country’s leaders claim Brazil will reach these lofty goals by pimping more biofuel use, pledging to provide more government funding for rainforest protection, “reducing dependence on individual transportation”, and working harder to fight racism and sexism.

Ummm, Right. All this seems unlikely to us as there’s not much in it about reining in Brazil’s lucrative offshore drilling activity. Indeed, the country owns the largest recoverable ultra-deep oil reserves in the world, with 97.6% of Brazil’s oil production produced offshore. Bottom line: without hacking and killing their energy sector like Britain’s Starmer pledged to do to his country yesterday, this document is all gobbly-gook.

Apparently, we’re alone in our assessment.

“COP 30 host Brazil has delivered an NDC that falls short of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4 on mitigation, which states that ‘each successive NDC will represent a progression beyond the previous one and reflect the highest possible ambition’, and instead reflects a more moderate pace. More is needed from a country that must show leadership as the COP30 President in 2025”, said Jess Beagley, Policy Lead at the Global Climate and Health Alliance.

Regarding the other big news here at COP 29, Argentina has reportedly withdrawn its delegation from COP 29. The Spanish media Climatica was first to grab hold of the story. It reported that the withdrawal was ordered by Argentinian President Javier Milei, who took charge of the country in November last year. It is also likely tied to Milei’s discussion with Trump he had just the day before he made this unprecedented decision, as well as his intention to draw closer to the incoming Administration.

Another media outlet, The Indian Express, mentioned this added thing as well:

“The Argentinians pulling out, just three days after the two-week conference began, coupled with Milei’s known admiration for Trump, triggered rumours that the country was considering withdrawing itself from the Paris Agreement. However, there was no immediate indication of any such move.”

Is this cause for celebration? Time will tell. But between the statement by the Azerbaijani President calling fossil fuels a “Gift from God” yesterday, and the Argentinian President ordering the withdrawal his delegation today, it seems that time may be coming to put a few bottles of bubbly on ice.