Tag: hail storms

Claim: Climate Change Could Make Hailstorms Worse

Although the full study is paywalled, it seems likely the study plays fast and loose with thermodynamics.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

So what is the point of solar panels?

MAY 28, 2026 REPORT

Hailstorms could grow more dangerous and damaging with climate change

by Paul Arnold, Phys.org
edited by Gaby Clark, reviewed by Robert Egan

Hailstorms can be incredibly dangerous, posing risks to life and property. Then there’s the economic damage to cars, crops, and infrastructure caused by large balls of ice falling at high speed from the sky. And the problems could worsen as our planet heats up.

A new study published in Nature predicts that climate change could produce larger, more damaging hailstones in some regions. The editors of Nature have also published a Research Briefing in the same issue summarizing the work.

…

They found that hailstorm-induced damage worldwide is projected to increase by 36.5% to 42.1% by the late 21st century, depending on the scenario. Explaining this shift, they wrote, “Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8%.”

At the same time, the frequency of small hailstones (less than 30 millimeters) is set to decrease by 4.2% to 12.3%.

The parts of the planet most likely to suffer the greatest damage are North America, Europe, and Asia. But it’s not all bad news, as the tropics and subtropics will see a decrease in overall hail frequency because the smaller stones will melt completely before hitting the ground.

…Read more: https://phys.org/news/2026-05-hailstorms-dangerous-climate.html

The abstract of the study;

  • Article
  • Published: 27 May 2026

Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world

Nature volume 653, pages 1069–1077 (2026) Cite this article

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1,2,3,4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale changes2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, whereas global-scale assessments of hailstone size remain scarce. Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by the late twenty-first century, with the magnitude determined by the emission scenario. Our results arise from hailstone trajectory simulations conducted under historical and future scenarios, driven by EC-Earth3 ensemble outputs10 that are cross-validated through multimodel comparisons. Globally, increased low-level temperature and specific humidity drive a shift towards larger hailstones, with the frequency of ≥30-mm-diameter hailstones rising by 37.9–51.8% and <30-mm-diameter hailstones declining by 4.2–12.3%. Regionally, the mid-high latitudes predominantly exhibit increased hail damage potential owing to strong warming and weak moistening, amplifying instability sufficiently to counteract enhanced drag and melting effects. Conversely, tropical and monsoonal regions experience reduced hail damage potential owing to weak warming, strong moistening and limited hail growth depth. Our findings highlight the non-uniform impacts of ACC on global hailstorm damage, providing critical insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10543-2

Although the full study is paywalled, it seems likely the study plays fast and loose with thermodynamics. Simplistic models which suggest warmer average surface temperatures would drive more severe weather without limit are just wrong. The total energy available to drive the climate system is set by the amount of sunlight being absorbed by the Earth – and big hailstorms require a lot of energy.

Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climate

F. LALIBERTÉ, J. ZIKA, L. MUDRYK, P. J. KUSHNER, J. KJELLSSON, AND K. DÖÖS

SCIENCE
30 Jan 2015
Vol 347, Issue 6221
pp. 540-543

DOI: 10.1126/science.12571031,23160

Because the rain falls and the wind blows

Global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but it might also make the atmosphere less energetic. Laliberté et al. modeled the atmosphere as a classical heat engine in order to evaluate how much energy it contains and how much work it can do (see the Perspective by Pauluis). They then used a global climate model to project how that might change as climate warms. Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms.

Science, this issue p. 540; see also p. 475

Abstract

Incoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.

Read more: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1257103

Even if they got the thermodynamics right, in a world where energy policy is driven by evidence and reason, any risk of more violent weather in the future should have long since ruled out fragile weather vulnerable systems like solar.

WRONG, Chicago Tribune, Climate Change Isn’t Making Hailstorms Worse

The Chicago Tribune recently ran a story claiming that climate change is making storms in Illinois “more severe,” particularly with regard to hail and tornadoes. This is false. There is no evidence that hail is becoming larger or tornadoes more powerful, or that either has become more common.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

The Chicago Tribune recently ran a story claiming that climate change is making storms in Illinois “more severe,” particularly with regard to hail and tornadoes. This is false. There is no evidence that hail is becoming larger or tornadoes more powerful, or that either has become more common. The article relies entirely on computer model projections that it presents as fact, without reference to real world data. The article suggests that higher insurance claims are evidence that storms are more destructive, but this isn’t actually evidence of anything other than increased property values.

The article, titled “Gargantuan hail, destructive tornadoes: Climate change making Illinois storms more severe,” claims that as warming continues to raise average global temperatures, “hailstones larger than ping-pong or golf balls will become more frequent […] according to a study led by Gensini and published a couple of years ago in the scientific journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.”

The study is a few years old, but it comes up almost every time the media wants to tie a notable hail event to climate change. It is not based on real world observations, but on projections from computer modelling that assumes that global warming will result in more storms with stronger updrafts, which would allow for larger hailstorm formation before they drop to earth. This same assumption was behind an NBC News report from July 2025, which was refuted in Climate Realism by meteorologist Anthony Watts.

In that post, Watts points out:

Hail formation requires a very specific cocktail of atmospheric conditions, including strong updrafts and a freezing layer deep enough to support hail growth. Warmer temperatures tend to reduce the vertical depth of this freezing level, making it more difficult—not easier—for large hailstones to form and survive to ground level.

He also points to studies that actually did look at measured severe hail occurrence, which found a decrease in significant hail events in the United States in recent decades.

Looking at National Weather Service data for Illinois alone, from 1995 to 2025, there is no trend towards more hail.

Figure 1: Illinois hail reports, from 1995 to 2025, data from NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Computer model outputs are only as good as the assumptions and formulas built into them. In this case, the models are seriously flawed, as the long-term data demonstrate. There is no trend towards worse or more frequent hail.

While the article title also implies that tornadoes are also worsening due to climate change, tornadoes are hardly mentioned in the body of the article. That’s good for the Chicago Tribune, because the reality is that tornadoes are not becoming more extreme or common in Illinois. It is shameful to imply that correlation. Even though the story itself doesn’t get into it, it’s still worth presenting the data that debunk what is implied in the article’s title.

Looking at the overall tornado counts, there appears to be a slight upward trend, however this is an artifact of the introduction of better radar systems that had wider coverage introduced throughout the mid-1990s, capturing smaller, briefer tornados in locations the earlier system missed. The number of weak and short-lived tornados observed has increased greatly because they are now more easily spotted. Severe tornadoes, however, have not increased.

Most tornados occur in central and southeast Illinois, and most studies looking at Illinois storms focus there. But since this article talks about the Chicagoland area as well, Climate Realism presents data for all of Illinois.

Since 1995, here are the data from the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, grounded mostly in the modern detection technology. (See figures 2 and 3 below)

Figure 2: Tornado count from 1995 to 2025 in Illinois, data from NWS Storm Prediction Center.
Figure 3: Strong (EF2+) tornadoes in Illinois from 1995-2025.

Data show no consistent trend towards an increase in the number of tornadoes, powerful or otherwise, despite 2023-2025 being high count years.

What should be among the most embarrassing parts of the article for the Chicago Tribune, aside from than their lack of fact-checking data on hail and tornadoes, is when paper tries to tie rising insurance claims from hail damage as proof that climate change is making hail worse. What the Chicago Tribune fails to note, as covered by multiple Climate Realism posts on the subject of insurance (here, here, here, for example), is that this is a terrible metric for measuring weather severity. That’s because while weather has not become more extreme, property values have become higher and inflation, affecting both labor and materials, has resulted in dramatically more expensive replacement costs. That means the cost of insurance claims rises too. This is basic economic logic, reinforced by the weather data shared above.

The Chicago Tribune failed in its journalistic duty of producing a story grounded in facts. Instead of merely reporting on the danger and human interest aspects of the recent severe storms, they attempted to fearmonger people into believing extreme weather is getting worse due to climate change. It’s not, as historical observational weather data show that there is no sustained trend of worsening storms. The computer model projections the Chicago Tribune cited as showing climate change-worsened weather are not much better than the simulations produced by fantasy computer games.

Hail No! NBC, Climate Change Isn’t Making Hail More Damaging

In the NBC News video report titled “How climate change could make hail storms even more destructive,” viewers are warned that stronger storm updrafts caused by climate change might supercharge hailstones, making them up to 75 percent larger. This claim is false and misleading, lacking any evidentiary support. Scientific data—including that from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report—shows no observable increase in hail intensity due to climate change.

From ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

In the NBC News video report titled “How climate change could make hail storms even more destructive,” viewers are warned that stronger storm updrafts caused by climate change might supercharge hailstones, making them up to 75 percent larger. This claim is false and misleading, lacking any evidentiary support. Scientific data—including that from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report—shows no observable increase in hail intensity due to climate change. In fact, IPCC AR6 Chapter 12 concludes that there are no significant trends or projections of increased hail frequency or severity due to a warming climate.

Real-world data and atmospheric physics don’t align with NBC’s hype. Hail formation requires a very specific cocktail of atmospheric conditions, including strong updrafts and a freezing layer deep enough to support hail growth. Warmer temperatures tend to reduce the vertical depth of this freezing level, making it more difficult—not easier—for large hailstones to form and survive to ground level.

The most telling and absurd quote in the entire segment is this one: “Their latest research shows that climate change will make updrafts even stronger, which could make the biggest most destructive hail up to 75 percent larger…”. That statistic, plucked from speculative modeling and not grounded in observed trends, is presented as if it is established fact. Worse, it’s paired with ominous warnings about damage to crops and rising insurance claims, all without context or acknowledgment that hailstorms have long been a fact of life in agricultural regions.

Attributing hail damage trends to climate change is scientifically dubious and intellectually dishonest. Hail damage costs have increased over time primarily due to increased development and property values in hail-prone areas—not because hailstorms are getting worse. This mirrors the same pattern seen with hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods: more assets in harm’s way, not more severe weather, results in greater damage and higher costs.

A thorough analysis by Climate Realism debunks the claim that hailstorms are intensifying. In fact, the data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows a slight decrease in reported significant hail events over recent decades. According to a 2019 peer reviewed study “The characteristics of United States hail reports: 1955-2014” says:

Hail days, in contrast to hail reports, show no national trend over the last 25 y. Regional and local influences on hail reporting are identified stemming from verification procedures and contributions from local officials. The change in the definition of severe hail size from 0.75 in (1.9 cm) to 1.00 in (2.5 cm) in 2010 has a particularly clear signature in the report statistics. The contribution of storm chasers and source of report factors beyond population to the hail dataset is also explored, and the difficulty in removing these changes discussed. The overall findings highlight the limitations and non-meteorological features present in hail observations.

Even the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in its journals has noted the difficulty of linking hail trends to climate change due to the limited reliability of long-term hail observations noting, “Estimating local‑scale hail frequency … or assessing long‑term trends in light of climate change are challenging tasks, particularly because direct, homogeneous, long‑term hail observations are mostly missing.”

Hail is notoriously hard to measure consistently over time. Its occurrence is often underreported in sparsely populated areas, and radar-based detection has only become reliable in recent decades. Thus, claims of increasing trends require more scrutiny than NBC or ICECHIP provides.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report clearly addresses hail concerns in Chapter 12, stating: “There is low confidence in observed trends in hail and low confidence in the attribution of these trends to human influence.” It continues: “Future changes in hail are uncertain, and there is low confidence in model projections.”

Table 12.12 | on Page 90 – Chapter 12 of the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) in time periods, as assessed in this section. The color corresponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white colors indicate where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal. See the key at the bottom for the meaning of all colors. Note the section on Hail highlighted in yellow.

Massive hailstorms have occurred throughout history, long before anyone blamed climate change. The 1888 Moradabad hailstorm in India killed 246 people. The U.S. has recorded hailstones the size of volleyballs since the 1960s; no CO₂ fingerprint required. Looking at a deeper historical perspective quickly dismantles the “climate is causing it all” narrative pushed by NBC.

The real motivation behind NBC’s video seems to be continuing funding for a particular group of scientists, those participating in ICECHIP (Investigation of Convective Hail in the Plains), a project “made possible through the support of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF),” not an accurate assessment of hail threats. Nowhere on the site’s mission statement does ICECHIP mention climate change as a research objective. Their stated goal is to better understand the internal dynamics of hailstorms—not to link those storms to global warming aka climate change.

So, when NBC laments potential cuts to NSF funding, and suggests that the Trump administration threatens America’s ability to forecast weather hazards, it is not hard to see what’s really going on: special interests using climate change as a fear-inducing narrative to protect their federal funding.

Further, if we’re going to talk about research integrity, let’s ask why a group like ICECHIP would publicly tie its work to climate change only after securing federal funding. Their project materials don’t reference it, their mission statement doesn’t highlight it, and their methods are entirely focused on hail microphysics and not long-term climate attribution.

This is not to say that understanding hail formation isn’t important. It is. Improved hail forecasting can reduce economic losses and improve public safety. But turning every scientific endeavor into a climate crusade only erodes public trust in science. When every research grant proposal must include a climate angle, it encourages groupthink, skewing scientific priorities away from discovery and toward narrative compliance.

The United States has always experienced hail. It is an inherent feature of mid-latitude convective storms, particularly in spring and early summer. Suggesting with little or no evidence that recent hailstorms are somehow novel or worsening because of rising CO₂ is just propaganda.

NBC’s segment fails to question any of the claims made by the ICECHIP. NBC doesn’t reference the IPCC, it doesn’t compare historical hail trends, it fails examine the extent to which urban expansion in hail prone areas result in rising insurance payouts and rates, and it doesn’t even even distinguish between modeled projections and observed data.

Indeed, NBC’s hailstorm climate segment is a masterclass in misleading science communication, conflating speculation with certainty, omitting key data and historical context, and promoting a self-serving narrative designed to secure federal funding for a particular group of researchers. In this story, NBC acts like an advocacy organization rather than an objective news outlet.