Tag: gasoline

California is Running Out of Refineries – And Running Out of Time

With the recent closures of the Valero and Phillips refineries that processed crude oil and the 2023 conversions of Marathon in Martinez and Phillips 66 in Rodeo that are no longer running crude oil, just renewable diesel, California’s remaining six refineries that process crude oil do not have the capacity to produce all that California demands of 58 million gallons of transportation fuel DAILY

From CO2- Coalition- Substack

By Ronald Stein* and Mike Ariza

With no pipelines crossing the Sierra Nevada, California is an energy island, separated from the crude oil supplies and refinery infrastructure of the other continental states. As a result, the state’s transportation fuel needs—for airports, cars, trucks, and ships serving three of America’s busiest ports—must be met by in-state refineries.

With the recent closures of the Valero and Phillips refineries that processed crude oil and the 2023 conversions of Marathon in Martinez and Phillips 66 in Rodeo that are no longer running crude oil, just renewable diesel, California’s remaining six refineries that process crude oil do not have the capacity to produce all that California demands of 58 million gallons of transportation fuel DAILY:

In addition, approximately 5.2 million metric tons of bunker fuel are an annual demand for the ships in three of the busiest Ports in America, located in California.

  • Port of Los Angeles had more than 1,800 vessel arrivals in 2024, which includes cruise and merchant ships.
  • Port of Long Beach handled over 9.6 million container units in 2024, indicating a very high volume of ship activity, plus cruise ships.
  • Port of Oakland, which also handles significant cargo volumes, contributes to the total number of cruise and merchant ships needing fuel.

California policies have reduced the state to six operational crude-oil refineries, forcing it to import 14 to 15 million of the 37 million gallons of gasoline it consumes each day, primarily from Asian countries.

Because of the reduction in transportation fuels being imported to California from Asian refineries, President Trump made the call to waive the Jones Act. This allowed foreign flagged tankers to take fuel receipts from states in the Gulf of America along with the East coast and deliver them via the Panama Canal, to California ports. Normal rules require domestic shipping vessels to be American built, owned, and crewed.

  • A Jones Act waiver is a temporary legal exemption that allows foreign-flagged ships to carry cargo between U.S. ports, i.e., from the Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal, to the West Coast ports in California. Under the Jones Act waiver in the last 3 ½ months foreign flagged tankers have transported more gasoline to California than what has been shipped to the state in the last 15 years combined.
  • The Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts PADD 5 (West Coast) jet fuel inventories normally track between 9 – 11 million barrels on hand. By April 2026 inventories were at 2.6 million and dropping. This was the lowest inventory for that time in more than 23 Years. Then on April 2, 2026, South Korea, California’s largest supplier of jet fuel, announced that they were suspending jet fuel exports. With this announcement and the fact that PADD 5 inventories were getting near historic lows, Southwest Airlines took unprecedented historic action. Southwest chartered a tanker flagged under the Marshall Islands to transport 306,389 barrels of jet fuel from the Valero Pasadena dock in Houston to berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach. In addition to Southwest Airlines’ unprecedented action, in the last 3 ½ months foreign flagged tankers have transported more jet fuel from PADD 1 and PADD 3 to California than the state has received in the last 36 YEARS COMBINED.
  • On August 10, 2026, President Donald Trump approved a 90-day extension of the Jones Act waiver that will allow foreign-flagged vessels to transport critical transportation fuels demanded in California and agricultural commodities between U.S. ports in the Gulf Coast and West Coast from August 17 through mid-November 2026.

California is the 4th largest economy because it has always had sufficient refinery capacity to manufacture the humongous in-state demands for transportation fuels. It is important to note that long term federal waivers will not solve the supply chain of transportation fuels demanded by the 4th largest economy in the world.

The root cause of refineries hemorrhaging out of the state is California state policies. National policy “band aids” cannot provide the long-term solution to a California sponsored hemorrhaging of the in-state refineries needed to manufacture the transportation fuel demands within the state.

With those recent refinery closures of the Phillips in Wilmington and Valero in Benicia and previous conversions of Marathon in Martinez and Phillips 66 in Rodeo that are no longer processing crude oil, just renewable diesel, California must now rely on the importation of transportation fuels that cannot be made in the State, 40% for gasoline demand and 35% for jet fuel and diesel demand.

  1. With the onset of the Iranian war, crude oil supplies being shipped through the strait of Hormuz were cut off to the Asian countries that were supplying California with transportation fuel. This forced the Asian Refineries to reduce their crude oil charge rates. As the crude oil charge rates declined their production rates of the vital fuels for California also declined to the point where they were forced to suspend their shipments to our state. By the first week of April 2026 nearly all outbound fuel shipments were cut off. With transit times across the Pacific Ocean running between 35 – 45 days this set California on a course for a supply shock starting in the last week of May 2026 with subsequent transportation fuel shortages at the terminal and fuel station levels starting in mid to late June 2026.
  2. To help California, Gulf refineries bumped up their production rates from a normal of 95-96% to near 98% of capacity. Some refineries also deferred their scheduled 1st and 2nd quarter maintenance shutdowns known as turnarounds to keep production online. Despite the slight increase in refinery rates most of the fuel that has been supplied to California has come from Petroleum Administration Defense District 1 (PADD 1) from the Gulf Coast and PADD 3 from the East Coast. In essence, California policies have caused the state to tap into other national military reserves. Refineries deferring their scheduled turnarounds is hazardous. Turnarounds are scheduled for a reason. Every day of delay further increases the possibility of extended downtimes due to equipment fouling or uncontrolled shutdowns due to equipment failure.

California State policies and economics have caused most of the in-state refineries to close over the last few decades and cease doing any manufacturing in the State which directly relates to transportation fuel shortages. The remaining seven refineries do not have the capacity to manufacture the supply chain demands for 58 million gallons a day of transportation fuels, and the bunker fuel demands of ships at 3 of the busiest ports in America located in California.

California is continuously increasing its reliance on costly foreign fuel imports from major polluting foreign refineries that ship those fuels long distances for 30 to 45 days across the Pacific Ocean by polluting tankers before reaching California ports. Because California’s unique environmental regulations require highly specialized fuel blends, and the domestic tanker fleet is too thin to fulfill its immense volume requirements, the state will be forced to look abroad. Refiners and marketers like those in the California Fuels & Convenience Alliance will likely pivot to importing replacement components from international markets, leaving California more exposed to global supply shocks and high replacement costs. However, given the current global supply strains, it is unlikely that they will find replacement transportation fuel sources. This will most likely lead to supply shocks within the state and the strong possibility of shortages of the daily transportation fuels that are demanded within the State.

Governor Newsom has received three letters from Chevron, Marathon, and PBF, owners of six of the remaining seven refineries in the state. All three letters state that if California refuses to negotiate with them on the newly proposed Cap and Invest amendments that were drafted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), then they will seriously consider shuttering their operations and leaving the state like Valero did.

California’s Governor, Legislatures, Senators and Representatives must immediately implement plans to support the retention of the 7 remaining refineries. If these refiners shut down, then no amount of waiver tankers will be able to prevent current shortages from becoming humongous catastrophic shortages. These shortages will be of historical proportions. They will affect Nevada, Arizona, and if the ports are shut down, they will reach well into the center of the nation.

California is not proactively supporting the reanimating of the closed Valero Refinery in Benicia or the closed Phillips Refinery in Wilmington. In addition, California government is not making the necessary policy changes to avert the hemorrhaging loss of one or more of the remaining California Refineries.

We strongly encourage the President to immediately invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) of 1950 which is a United States federal law that gives the President emergency powers to control domestic industries and private businesses. It ensures the nation has enough industrial resources and supplies for national defense, energy infrastructure, and major emergencies.Please share this information with teachers, students, and friends to encourage Energy Literacy conversations at the family dinner table.

Click this Link to Sign up for Energy Literacy from Ronald Stein

Originally published at America Out Loud, August 24, 2026.

Ronald Stein, P.E., is a CO2 Coalition member, engineer, columnist on energy literacy at America Out Loud NEWS, and advisor on energy literacy for the Heartland Institute and CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.” He is also the recipient of an unsolicited Tribute to Ronald Stein from Stephen Heins.

The California Refinery Crisis is a National Security Risk for America

California’s refinery situation represents a significant vulnerability that extends beyond state-level economics to broader U.S. energy security and military readiness.
Energy security is national security, and California’s situation highlights the risks of rapid unilateral shifts without reliable backups

From The CO2 Coalition

By Ronald Stein

California is the 4th largest economy in the world and an “ENERGY ISLAND that is isolated from the other 49 States by the Sierra Mountains. There are no pipelines over those majestic mountains to connect the State to the rest of the country. Thus, California’s in-State refineries have been producing ALL the transportation fuels demanded on the California “Energy Island.”

  • Bunker fuel, about 1 million barrels ANNUALLY for the ships servicing three of the busiest Ports in America, located in California.
    • Port of Los Angeles had more than 1,800 vessel arrivals in 2024, which includes cruise and merchant ships.
    • Port of Long Beach handled over 9.6 million container units in 2024, indicating a very high volume of ship activity, plus cruise ships.
    • Port of Oakland, which also handles significant cargo volumes, contributes to the total number of cruise and merchant ships needing fuel.
  • Jet fuel: California has over 2,400 airports and aviation facilities, including 9 international airports and 30 major military airports. The demand is 13 million gallons of aviation fuel DAILY. Several of those airports have direct pipelines to local refineries. In 2019, California consumed 16.7% of the national total of jet fuel, making it the largest consumer of jet fuel in America.
  • Gasoline: For its 30 million vehicles, California is the second-largest consumer of motor gasoline among the 50 states, consuming 42 million gallons DAILY of gasoline, just behind Texas.
  • Diesel: Diesel fuel is the second largest transportation fuel used in California, consuming 10 million gallons DAILY of diesel to support the state’s trucking of products from 3 of the busiest shipping ports in America.

California’s regulatory environment has created a refining capacity vacuum that global markets are rushing to fill, as regional policy decisions are creating international market opportunities and reshaping geopolitical energy dynamics.

Liquid transportation fuels remain essential for sectors that are difficult to electrify. Aviation still depends on jet fuel, global shipping requires bunker fuel, heavy transport, construction, and the petrochemical industry continues to rely on refined petroleum products. Diesel and jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks, will remain crucial for decades, even with reduced demand for gasoline from electric vehicles. If local refining capacity decreases in California while demand persists, markets will respond by seeking transportation fuels elsewhere.

It must be remembered that crude oil, by itself, is useless black tar unless you build a multi-billion-dollar refinery to break it down to produce various types of transportation fuels and oil derivatives that are the basis of virtually all the products in our materialistic world.

California’s environmental regulations and aging infrastructure are inadvertently triggering a worldwide refinery construction boom. There will be economic consequences for California consumers as domestic refining capacity shrinks and import dependence grows. The paradox of California’s environmental policies and California’s emissions reductions may be increasing the global carbon footprint through longer supply chains.

In the future, 181 new refinery units that are planned or announced in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East will be providing transportation fuels to California’s 9 international airports, 30 major military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports.

These modern refineries in other countries are designed to operate on a massive scale, process multiple types of crude oil, and export transportation fuels worldwide. Tanker transport allows refined transportation fuels to reach major consumption centers, including ports such as the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Long Beach, and the Port of Oakland.

As California’s refining capacity continues to decline, the California transportation fuel demands for its shipping ports, airports, cars, and trucks are among the highest in the nation and will be increasingly imported from refineries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

California, the 4th-largest economy in the world, with growing dependence on transportation fuels produced at foreign refineries from refined crude oil, will pose a national security risk to the entire country.

California has closed 2 refineries, and more closures are on the way as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is tightening up the regulations on emissions that may drive the remaining 6 refineries in the State to EXIT to more business-friendly States.

The 4th largest economy in the world NEEDS new refineries to process crude oil, to be built IN CALIFORNIA.

Energy “REALITY” tells us that we need refineries to convert that useless black tar into usable transportation fuels and products:

  • Planes, ships, trucks, and cars do not run on raw crude oil; they run on transportation fuels manufactured FROM crude oil by multi-billion-dollar refineries.
  • With no pipelines over the Sierra Mountain, the new refinery in Brownsville, Texas, will be useless to the California Energy Island that demands in-state refineries to provide transportation fuels for 30 major military locations, 9 international airports, 3 of the busiest ports in America, and fuels for the trucks that transport imported products to the rest of America.
  • Wind turbines and solar panels ONLY generate electricity, but CANNOT make any of the more than 6,000 products that are based on the oil derivatives manufactured out of raw crude oil, nor can wind and solar make any transportation fuels for the military, airports, merchant ships, automobiles, and trucks.
  • The world is not dependent on raw natural fossil fuels, but has become dependent on the products and transportation fuels MADE FROM oil, the same products and transportation fuels that Wind and Solar CANNOT make!
  • The world needs MORE REFINERIES to process that useless black tar into usable transportation fuels and products for life as we know it.

Collectively, the closure of the Phillips refinery in Southern California and the Valero refinery in Northern California provided about 17% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity to provide transportation fuels demanded in California. Thus, transportation fuel shortages are imminent for California, and it will be importing those transportation fuels from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

The supply chain of fuels and products refined from raw crude oil will face severe imbalances, most likely leading to higher costs and shortages for future generations.

With 99.5% of the 8 billion people on this planet Earth living outside the borders of California, CARB is solidifying California’s 4th largest economy in the world as a national security risk for America, as the State will be importing transportation fuels from foreign-based refineries to run its 30 military airports and 9 international airports.

Be sure to watch and listen to the Epoch Times interview from April 4, 2026:

The California Refinery Crisis: This author, Ronald Stein, addresses questions from the Chief Editor of The Epoch Times and TV Host of California Insider, Siyamak Khorrami.

Originally published on America Out loud News on May 11, 2026.

Ronald Stein, P.E. is a CO2 Coalition  member, engineer, energy consultant, speaker, author of books and articles on energy literacy, environmental policy, and human rights, and Founder of PTS Advance, a California based company.

The California Refinery Crisis is a national security risk for America

California transportation fuel demands are among the highest in the nation and are now beginning to be imported from refineries in foreign countries. The State will be importing transportation fuels from foreign based refineries to run its 30 military airports and 9 international airports – a National Security risk for America.

From Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Ronald Stein, P.E. Originally Published in the Epoch Times as a video interview, April 4, 2026

California transportation fuel demands are among the highest in the nation and are now beginning to be imported from refineries in foreign countries.  The State will be importing transportation fuels from foreign based refineries to run its 30 military airports and 9 international airports – a National Security risk for America.
 
California is the 4th largest economy in the world and an “ENERGY ISLAND” that is isolated from the other 49 States by the Sierra Nevada mountain range. There are no pipelines over those majestic mountains to connect the State to the rest of the country. Thus, California’s in-State refineries have been producing ALL the transportation fuels demanded on the California “Energy Island”.
 
Bunker fuel for the ships servicing three of the busiest Ports in America, located in California. The Port of Los Angeles had more than 1,800 vessel arrivals in 2024, which includes cruise and merchant ships. The Port of Long Beach handled over 9.6 million container units in 2024, indicating a very high volume of ship activity, plus cruise ships. The Port of Oakland, which also handles significant cargo volumes, contributes to the total number of cruise and merchant ships needing fuel.

Jet fuel: California has over 2,400 airports and aviation facilities, including 9 international airports and 30 major military airports. The demand is 13 million gallons of aviation fuel daily.  Several of those airports have direct pipelines to local refineries.  In 2019, California consumed 16.7% of the national total of jet fuel, making it the largest consumer of jet fuel in America.

Gasoline: For its 30 million vehicles, California is the second-largest consumer of motor gasoline among the 50 states, consuming 42 million gallons a day of gasoline, just behind Texas.
Diesel: Diesel fuel is the second largest transportation fuel used in California, consuming 10 million gallons a day of diesel to support the state’s trucking of products from 3 of the busiest shipping ports in America 
 
California’s regulatory environment has created a refining capacity vacuum that global markets are rushing to fill, as regional policy decisions are creating international market opportunities and reshaping geopolitical energy dynamics.
 
Liquid transportation fuels remain essential for sectors that are difficult to electrify. Aviation still depends on jet fuel, global shipping requires bunker fuel, heavy transport, construction, and the petrochemical industry continues to rely on refined petroleum products. Diesel and jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks, will remain crucial for decades, even with reduced demand for gasoline from electric vehicles. If local refining capacity decreases in California while demand persists, markets will respond by seeking transportation fuels elsewhere.

It must be remembered that crude oil, by itself, is useless black tar unless you build a multi-billion-dollar refinery to break it down to produce various types of transportation fuels, and oil derivatives that are the basis of virtually all the products in our materialistic world.
 
California’s environmental regulations and aging infrastructure are inadvertently triggering a worldwide refinery construction boom. There will be economic consequences for California consumers as domestic refining capacity shrinks and import dependence grows. The paradox of California’s environmental policies and California’s emissions reductions may be increasing the global carbon footprints through longer supply chains.
 
In the future, 181 new refinery units that are planned or announced in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East will be providing transportation fuels to California’s 9 international airports, 30 major military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports.
 
These modern refineries in other countries are designed to operate on a massive scale, process multiple types of crude oil, and export transportation fuels worldwide. Tanker transport allows refined transportation fuels to reach major consumption centers, including ports such as the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Long Beach, and the Port of Oakland.
 
As California’s refining capacity continues to decline, the California transportation fuel demands for its shipping ports, airports, cars and trucks are among the highest in the nation and will be increasingly imported from refineries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
 
California, the 4th largest economy in the world, with growing dependence on transportation fuels made from refined crude oil at foreign refineries will be a national security risk for the entire country.
 
California has closed 2 refineries, and more closures are on the way as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is tightening up the regulations on emissions that may drive the remaining 6 refineries in the State to EXIT to more business-friendly States.
 
The 4th largest economy in the world NEEDS new refineries to process crude oil, to be built IN CALIFORNIA. 
 
Energy “REALITY” tells us that we need refineries to convert that useless black tar into usable transportation fuels and products:
 
Planes, ships, trucks, and cars do not run on raw crude oil, they run on transportation fuels manufactured FROM crude oil by multi-billion-dollar refineries.

With no pipelines over the Sierra Mountain, the new refinery in Brownsville in Texas will be useless to the California Energy Island that demands in-state refineries to provide transportation fuels for 30 major military locations, 9 international airports, 3 of the busiest ports in America, and fuels for the trucks that transport imported products to the rest of America.

Wind turbines and solar panels ONLY generate electricity but CANNOT make any of the more than 6,000 products that are based on the oil derivatives manufactured out of raw crude oil, nor can wind and solar make anu transportation fuels for the military, airports, merchant ships, automobiles and trucks. The world is not dependent on raw natural fossil fuels BUT has become dependent on the products and transportation fuels MADE FROM oil, the same products and transportation fuels that Wind and Solar CANNOT make!

The world needs MORE REFINERIES to process that useless black tar into usable transportation fuels and products for life as we know it.
 
Collectively, closure of the Phillips refinery in Southern California and the Valero refinery in Northern California provided about 17% of the state’s crude oil processing capacity to provide transportation fuels demanded in California. Thus, transportation fuel shortages are imminent for California, and will be importing those transportation fuels from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
 
The supply chain of fuels and products refined from raw crude oil will face severe imbalances, most likely leading to higher costs and shortages for future generations. With 99.5% of the 8 billion people on this planet Earth living outside the borders of California, CARB is solidifying California’s 4th largest economy in the world as a national security risk for the entire USA!
 
Be sure to watch and listen to the Epoch Times interview:
 
California’s Oil Problem Is Bigger Than California

Ronald Stein, P.E., is an engineer, columnist on energy literacy at America Out Loud NEWS, and advisor on energy literacy for the Heartland Institute and CFACT, and co-author of the Pulitzer Prize-nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations.” He is also the recipient of an unsolicited Tribute to Ronald Stein from Stephen Hines.
 
Click this Link to Sign up for Energy Literacy from Ronald Stein

California Keeps Driving Up Gas Prices With ‘Layers And Layers’ Of Green Rules And Regs

California’s latest law cracking down on fuel refiners in the state is likely to drive already-high prices at the pump even higher, according to several energy experts.

From Watts Up With That?

The Daily Caller

Nick Pope
Contributor

California’s latest law cracking down on fuel refiners in the state is likely to drive already-high prices at the pump even higher, according to several energy experts.

Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed ABX2-1 into law on Oct. 14, empowering state bureaucrats to require refiners to maintain certain inventory levels in an effort to prevent alleged price gouging by energy companies and adding to the list of anti-fossil fuel industry policies and regulations in the state. Along with rules already on the books, the new policy will further squeeze refiners and fuel producers, undermine supply and send prices even higher with the help of other costly rules on the books regulating the fossil fuel industry, according to several energy sector experts.

At about $4.64, California already has the highest per-gallon gas prices of any state in the U.S., according to AAA gas price data. In the week since the bill became law, Phillips 66 announced that it plans to close one of its refineries in the Los Angeles area in 2025, meaning that one of California’s nine refineries and 8% of the state’s available refining capacity will be closing down, according to the Los Angeles Times. (RELATED: What Has California’s War On Fossil Fuels Actually Accomplished?)

“Price spikes have cost Californians billions of dollars over the years, and we’re not waiting around for the industry to do the right thing — we’re taking action to prevent these price spikes and save consumers money at the pump,” Newsom said upon signing the bill. “Now, the state has the tools to make sure they backfill supplies and plan ahead for maintenance so there aren’t shortages that drive up prices. I’m grateful to our partners in the Senate and Assembly for acting quickly to push this forward and help deliver relief for Californians.”

However, Patrick De Haan, a prominent gas market analyst who writes for GasBuddy, rejects Newsom’s contention that energy companies are ripping off Californians. He instead places most of the blame for the state’s high energy costs at the feet of overzealous regulators and politicians.

“It can’t be understated — it’s not the oil industry ‘screwing you’ in California, it’s hell-bent politicians with layers and layers of costly legislation,” De Haan wrote in an Oct. 15 post to X, formerly Twitter. “It’s more Newsom’s government than anything.”

De Haan also expects other refiners to follow in Phillips 66’s footsteps and close down California refineries in the wake of ABX2-1’s passage, he wrote in a separate post. About 90% of the gasoline consumed in the state is refined at in-state facilities, according to the California Energy Commission, so prices would likely increase in the event of more refinery closures as supply decreases and if all else is held equal. (RELATED: Energy, Business Groups Ask Supreme Court To Stop California From Forcing EVs On The Rest Of America)

“They keep running around talking about how companies are price gouging. In reality, it’s the politicians. You just wonder when people are going to wake up,” Dan Kish, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Energy Research, told the DCNF. “What they’re clearly doing is they want all electric vehicles, and so they’re driving up the cost of gasoline every way they can to do it. They’re making gas more scarce and more expensive, and they hope that this will help ‘nudge,’ as they like to say, people into doing what they want them to do, rather than listen to the citizens.”

Newsom’s office disputes that state policy is primarily responsible for driving up gas prices in the state.

“Gas prices overwhelmingly consist of crude oil costs and industry profits,” a spokesperson for Newsom said in an email to the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Analyses have shown that the legislation last week will save Californians upwards of billions of dollars every year,” the spokesperson continued, further referring the DCNF to Newsom’s remarks at a press conference announcing the new refinery law.

“Also, gas prices are significantly lower this year than in past years — after the Governor signed into law new accountability and transparency tools,” the spokesperson added.

Andy Walz, president of downstream, midstream and chemicals for Chevron, slammed ABX2-1 in an Oct. 8 letter to California lawmakers describing how the bill is likely to increase costs at the pump for consumers in a misguided attempt to prevent supposed price gouging. In the letter, Walz wrote that the new law is evidently political rather than practical, and that it will make gas even more expensive for Californians in the long-run.

“California’s policy choices have led to a gasoline shortage by driving suppliers away,” Walz wrote. “We have a shortage of incentivizing policy for additional refiners and supply. California, stop making consumer conditions worse.”

The new law for refineries is not the only policy in California that is expected to increase gas prices in the near future.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will decide after Election Day whether to tighten the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), a program that aims to decrease the carbon intensity of transportation fuels in the state, according to Politico. CARB initially estimated that doing so could raise prices at the pump by 47 cents per-gallon, though CARB subsequently walked back that projection.

However, Danny Cullenward, a climate economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, recently published his own analysis projecting that CARB’s forthcoming LCFS decision could actually jack up prices by 65 cents per-gallon in the near future and by 85 cents per-gallon come 2030.  

Additionally, California has a statewide cap-and-trade program that sets a declining limit on major sources of emissions across the state to incentivize corporations to adopt low-emitting green technologies. Walz named California’s cap-and-trade program as one of the most aggressive regulatory schemes in the state that contributed to his company’s August decision to relocate its headquarters to Texas and out of California in an August interview with the DCNF.

“There are two reasons that gas is more expensive in California, and neither of them have to do with price gouging. The first reason, which we’re all very familiar with, is the extra taxes that are added on,” Edward Ring, the director of water and energy policy for the California Policy Center, told the DCNF. “When you take all of the state taxes, fees and programs, you’re going to add another $1.23 to the price of a gallon of gas, and that’s not including the 18 cents a gallon of federal excise tax.”

“Now, the other part, which is worth mentioning, to be fair, is California does have a different formulation that they require for gasoline that does make it a little bit more expensive to refine, but again, that’s not that big a factor,” Ring continued. “If California wants to spare its citizens the high cost of gas, they should maybe figure out how to run the state for a little bit less money, because they’re doing a terrible job anyway, and they could lower these taxes.”

CARB did not respond to a request for comment.

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Papa Pete demands we quit clinging to our cars

Remember the American love for the open road? That paean to American freedom built on the automobile but made possible by highways that also enabled trucks to deliver goods to just about any location quickly and safely?

From CFACT

By Duggan Flanakin

Remember the American love for the open road? That paean to American freedom built on the automobile but made possible by highways that also enabled trucks to deliver goods to just about any location quickly and safely?

Hot cars are still popular today, as evidenced by the fact that the “Fast and Furious” movies have generated about $2 billion in ticket sales in the U.S. and another $5 billion worldwide. Formula 1 reported revenues of more than $3.2 billion in 2023, with profits up by 64%.

In 2021, the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA), which governs world motorsports, including touring, sportscar, drag racing, and rally car events, commissioned the first-ever report on the global market impact from motorsports. In the first year after the COVID pandemic, the industry generated over $200 billion in business impact on the world’s economy, directly and indirectly supporting over a million jobs.

Electric vehicles arrived concurrently with the internal combustion engine – and were quickly rejected as impractical. During their brief heyday, electric vehicles were marketed as “the ideal woman’s car,” but gasoline engines provided more energy per unit mass and could travel greater distances.

Gasoline could also be easily transported to filling stations in rural areas, many of which lacked electric power lines. Not until the 1930s did affordable electricity become available nationwide. After World War II, the gasoline-powered automobile became as popular as apple pie.

“See the USA in your Chevrolet!” and similar slogans echo the days of muscle cars and hot rods – along with convertibles and even sedans with good radios. Working people had pickup trucks, and the driver’s license was the first badge of adulthood.

Then came the minivan, now largely replaced by the sport utility vehicle. Cheap American gasoline or diesel (even with ethanol added) made even transcontinental trips possible for millions of Americans.

And then came the Progressives to spoil all the fun.

First, they hopped on the “climate emergency” bandwagon to justify massive subsidies for “clean” vehicles to “save the planet,” emphasizing no tailpipe emissions while ignoring the darker realities of cobalt and lithium mining, Chinese labor camps, or the cost of an entirely new infrastructure the private sector was not about to underwrite.

Backed by climate hype, politicians authorized massive subsidies that, to date, have gone mostly to the trendy urban rich, often purchased to show support for “green” technology and thus gain brown-nose points, but sometimes just because of the “zoom” factor.

As long as EVs were a novelty luxury item, no one really cared that the rich got a discount on their new toys. [Remember when the “toy of the month” was the Hummer?]  It may come as a surprise that Tesla did not even enter the marketplace until 2008. The EV fad also engulfed the European subsidy market in very short order.

Not satisfied with the speed of the “transition” to electric vehicles, governments began imposing mandates on manufacturers to force them to shutter long-successful product lines and switch to electric vehicles only within a very brief timeframe.

In August 2021, President Biden signed an executive order setting a national goal that, by 2030, half of all new sales must be zero-tailpipe-emissions vehicles – regardless of cost and without evidence that the buying public would, or even could, choose an EV.

The order also called on the Environmental Protection Agency to put the squeeze on manufacturers to virtually eliminate gasoline engines. And just last month, the EPA unveiled its grand scheme to force the majority of American auto buyers into EVs within the next eight years – though the final rules have a slightly slower timetable than the version proposed a year ago.

Initial reaction to the bureaucrat-written rules was mixed, as Politico reported. While President Biden gushed that he was pleasing the climate police, auto manufacturers said that “this wildly unpopular policy is going to feel and function like a ban,” noting that it comes as “Americans are struggling with high costs and inflation.”

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, announcing the new rules, boasted that, “We estimate that today’s rule will prevent 5.5 trillion pounds of carbon dioxide from going into our atmosphere between now and 2050.” Citing the tougher mileage standards, Papa Pete also claimed that the new rules will “save a typical American household hundreds of dollars.”

“That’s a lot of lipstick smeared on this pig,” one can imagine someone saying. In the real world, EV sales are declining across Europe such that the European Union has backed away from its lofty goals – and may have to retreat further, based on recent election results.

In the U.S., auto rental giant Hertz is selling its entire 20,000-EV fleet, citing high repair costs and weak demand. Ford lost $4.7 billion in its EV division last year and has slowed or stopped production of its EV Lightning pickup.

The Biden-Buttigieg EV mandates are already taking away factory jobs and threatening to devastate motorsports (even though there is a burgeoning Formula E racing circuit).

Yet Buttigieg could not wait to insult the vast majority of Americans who have expressed little or no desire to trade in reliable gasoline-powered vehicles for an electric vehicle – for many of the same reasons Americans rejected them a century ago.

Many of the scarce EV charging stations rely on diesel or natural gas generators or even coal-fired power plants, only adding to the perceived absurdity of forcibly imposing an unwanted technology on an already financially stressed populace.

But Papa Pete, fresh from admitting the collapse of a bridge he once deemed “racist” was “unimaginable” (proving his incompetence),  had no problem mocking Americans who willingly abandoned landlines yet “cling” to their “old-fashioned” [our words] “gas guzzlers.”This unthinking knee-jerk spirit, which permeates Western officialdom, is sparking citizen revolts against a bloated ruling class that evokes memories of a French monarch whose response to the cries of those her policies made poor was “Let ‘em eat cake” – when they had no bread.

And, while landline phones may seem old-fashioned, they still offer a level of reliability and voice quality unmatched by cell phones. There just are not enough cell phone towers (sound familiar?) to ensure 24/7/365 reliable service in every community.

One more thing. Papa Pete should know that cell phones first appeared in 1973 and only became popular two decades later, but not until the arrival of the iPhone in 2007 did people begin to ditch their landlines rather than pay for both technologies at the same time. That voluntary timetable is a lot longer than the one Buttigieg and his masters are forcing upon Americans.

This article originally appeared at Real Clear Energy

Exploding Energy Prices in California

Energy prices are skyrocketing in California. The state’s electricity, gasoline, and natural gas prices are amongst the nation’s highest and rising. Green energy policies are the primary cause for high and escalating California energy prices.

From Master Resource

By Steve Goreham 

“California leaders know that rising prices are a huge problem. The state is now considering a plan to tie utility rates to personal income so that the rich pay more and low-income residents pay less. Costly California looms as an example of poor energy policy.”

Energy prices are skyrocketing in California. The state’s electricity, gasoline, and natural gas prices are amongst the nation’s highest and rising. Green energy policies are the primary cause for high and escalating California energy prices.

Electricity

California electricity prices increased by 98.2 percent over the last 15 years, the highest rise in the nation. No other state comes close in terms of price increases. US average electricity prices rose 30.6 percent over the same period. California power prices rose to a level that is the second highest in the nation, only lower than Hawaii. In contrast, prices in Texas have actually declined since 2008 due to a focus on retail competition and a sharp decrease in natural gas prices, more than offsetting wind and solar additions. [1]

California is the epicenter of green energy in the United States. The state established the first renewable portfolio standard in 2002, mandating that 20 percent of electricity be from renewable sources by 2017. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger instituted a 33 percent renewable requirement by 2020. In 2018, Governor Jerry Brown signed an executive order mandating 100 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2045.

The transition from traditional power plants to renewables has been a top priority for California for the last 20 years. By the start of 2023, California’s grid contained more than 6 gigawatts(GW) of wind, 17.5 GW of utility-scale solar, and 14 GW of residential rooftop solar.

Over the last two decades, the state retired 11 coal-fired power plants and converted three other coal plants to burn biomass fuel. The San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station closed in 2013, and the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the state’s last nuclear plant, has been scheduled for closure.

In 2022, natural gas provided 42 percent of California’s in-state electricity generation, with other sources providing: solar (27%), nuclear (8%), hydroelectric (8%), wind (7%), geothermal (6%), and biomass (2%). The state imports about one-fifth of its electricity from surrounding states.

Solar and wind generators are more expensive than traditional coal, gas, and nuclear generators. Wind and solar occupy huge amounts of land, perform poorly during winter months, and suffer from intermittent output.

Vaclav Smil’s book Power Density points out that wind and solar systems use about 100 times the land area of traditional generators to produce the same electricity output. Renewable facilities also tend to be far from population centers, requiring expensive buildouts of transmission systems. Land and transmission costs boost the price of electricity from these generators.

The intermittency of wind and solar generation has the largest cost impact. Cloudy days and nights eliminate solar output and windless days idle wind turbines. Winter solar output drops to about half the available summer output. About 90 percent of traditional coal or natural gas generators must be maintained as backup for intermittent wind and solar systems, boosting power prices.

Batteries

California leads the US in deployment of grid-scale batteries. The plan is to use batteries to store electricity when wind and solar generation is high and then release the stored power back to the grid when wind and solar output is low. Wind and solar plus battery systems are being deployed as a low-carbon alternative to coal and gas power plants.

But the use of grid-scale batteries to backup renewable generators multiplies the cost of electricity. Utility-scale solar systems cost about $1 million per megawatt (MW) of rated capacity. Grid-scale batteries with four hours of discharge duration cost about $1.5 million per megawatt of capacity. These batteries can back up solar for only about four hours.

To replace a gas-fired power plant, a battery system would need to back up a solar installation for one or more days. A battery that can back up a $1 million one-megawatt solar facility for a single day would cost about $9 million. Grid-scale batteries only have a 12-year lifetime, about one-half of the solar lifetime. Adding batteries to backup solar for a single day boosts the total capital cost by more than a factor of ten.

Gasoline

February 29 found California regular gasoline prices at $4.74 per gallon, the highest in the nation. California drivers pay 40 percent more than the national average. The state has its own blend of gasoline, and claims that the blend will emit fewer greenhouse gases when burned. Higher gasoline taxes and a shortage of local refineries also factor into the high prices.

Natural Gas

California also consistently ranks in the top 10 in natural gas prices. Prices are high because the state has long discouraged local production, importing more than 90 percent of its gas from other states. There is a also a shortage of gas storage facilities.

Green energy policies affect not only electricity and fuel prices, but also housing utility and construction costs. Many regulations aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from buildings. The California Air Resources Board passed a regulation outlawing new residential gas heaters by 2030. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and other cities have voted to ban gas appliances in new construction. Only electric heat pumps, water heaters, and stoves may be used. These measures further boost the cost of energy for homeowners.

Housing Costs

Housing prices are rising because of green energy mandates. The 2020 California Solar Mandate requires newly constructed homes to have solar panels and wiring for electric appliances. The California Building Standards Commission enacted standards that require electrical conduit for level two EV charging in single-family homes and parking facilities with EV chargers for multi-family homes and hotels. These additional requirements make the cost of housing less affordable for low-income residents.

Conclusion

Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric, the big California utilities, have all asked for 2024 rate increases, in part needed to bury hundreds of miles of transmission lines to reduce the threat of forest fires. Residents already pay $300-500 per month for energy. There seems to be no end in sight to rising California energy prices.

California leaders know that rising prices are a huge problem. The state is now considering a plan to tie utility rates to personal income so that the rich pay more and low-income residents pay less.

But affordable energy is clearly not as important as efforts to try to stop global warming. Costly California looms as an example of poor energy policy.

—————–

[1] Storm Uri (February 2021) rate spikes of $10 billion or more have been paid by floating bonds and/or are in legal limbo, which would make Texas’s electricity rates higher than recorded.

Steve Goreham is a speaker on energy, the environment, and public policy and the author of the new bestselling book Green Breakdown: The Coming Renewable Energy Failure. His previous posts at MasterResource can be found here.

Biden Admin Reportedly Set To Greenlight Rule Change That Could Spike Gas Prices — But Not Until After The Election

The rule change stems from a 2022 request from the governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin to allow the sale of gasoline with 15% ethanol year-round, known as E15 gasoline, lifting current seasonal restrictions that aim to reduce smog in the summer months, according to Reuters.

From The Daily Caller

WILL KESSLER

CONTRIBUTOR

The Biden administration is expected to ease seasonal restrictions on ethanol-gasoline blends but has delayed the change until after the 2024 election to avoid a price spike, according to Reuters.

The rule change stems from a 2022 request from the governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin to allow the sale of gasoline with 15% ethanol year-round, known as E15 gasoline, lifting current seasonal restrictions that aim to reduce smog in the summer months, according to Reuters. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had originally set an effective date of April 28, 2024, for the changes when the agency sent the proposal to the White House in December, but that is now expected to be pushed back to 2025. (RELATED: Biden Admin To Ease Electric Vehicle Goals In Bid For Union Support: REPORT)

Top oil refiners, including HF Sinclair Corp. and Philips 66, have warned against the change, saying that it would complicate fuel supply logistics and increase the risk of area shortages, possibly raising prices, according to Reuters. The ethanol industry has lobbied for the changes, saying that the environmental concerns are exaggerated.

Gas prices spiked nationally to an average of over $5 per gallon in June 2022 amid supply constraints from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Prices receded to nearly $3.10 per gallon in December 2022 before climbing up to just under $3.90 per gallon in August 2023.

The national average for a gallon of gas was $3.276 as of February 20, according to the AAA.

The new rule change would only affect midwestern states, with the ethanol industry calling for a country-wide expansion in addition to the regional change, according to Reuters. A country-wide fix would ease the risks of area shortages that refiners are concerned about.

Former President Donald Trump flipped typical midwestern blue states Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2016 election and came very close to winning Minnesota. The new rule change could raise gas prices in the battleground states of Wisconsin and Minnesota due to their large corn industries, putting the president’s reelection bid at risk, according to Reuters.

The EPA granted an emergency waiver in April 2023 and in 2024 permitting E15 gasoline to be sold during the summer in an effort to keep gas prices down amid oil supply volatility from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The move was praised by the midwestern corn industry, which provides the products to produce the ethanol used in E15 gasoline.

The White House and the EPA did not immediately respond to a request to comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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Think megawatt hours of gasoline

Given the Biden rush to electrify all fuel use, this way of measuring helps make clear the fantasy of that policy. The amount of electricity required to replace ordinary fuel uses is enormous.

From CFACT

By David Wojick

clean energy concept. solar panel with wind turbine and blue sky

The energy content of gasoline and other fuels is usually measured in Btu, or kilojoules if you are metric. But it can also be done in kilowatt or megawatt hours. Fuel energy and electric energy are both energy, after all.

Given the Biden rush to electrify all fuel use, this way of measuring helps make clear the fantasy of that policy. The amount of electricity required to replace ordinary fuel uses is enormous.

In fact, this conversion issue is staring us in the face. A recent CFACT article points out that EPA proposes to regulate at cross purposes. They want to force us to switch to electric cars while at the same time shutting down fossil-fueled power production.

See https://www.cfact.org/2023/07/30/epas-power-grid-assumptions-are-disconnected-from-reality/.

As my regular readers know, I am focused on Virginia, so let’s take it as our example. The reality is complex, but we will keep it simple enough to see the stark general picture.

According to EIA, Virginia’s estimated 2021 gasoline consumption is around 440 trillion Btu. The conversion is 3,412,000 btu = 1 MWh. So that is about 130 million MWh in gasoline energy. Also, in 2021 Virginia’s electric power generation is 93.5 million MWh.

So the gasoline energy is 1.4 times the total power generation. That’s a lot, right? If it takes this much energy to power our cars and light trucks, then we need to build generation capacity that is almost one and a half times our present generation to make the transition. We also need to build the costly transmission, distribution, and charging capacity to deliver all that juice to the EVs.

I have yet to see the cost estimate for all of this, but clearly, it is huge. And if we are also supposed to shut down most of our existing generating capacity because it is fossil-fueled, that is surely impossible. I have seen no plan that even begins to seriously address this issue, just a lot of empty arm-waving.

Mind you, a real analysis would get pretty technical pretty fast. For example, car engines are only around 40% efficient. So one might argue that only 40% of that 130 million MWh, or 52 million, is needed to run the electric version. That is still well over half of the present generation.

But the electric power and electric car system is also far from 100% efficient. There are line losses, storage losses, motor losses, etc. So if 52 million MWh has to be used, then a lot more has to be generated. Plus EVs are a lot heavier, so take more energy.

Then too, there is the unanswered question of where all this new juice is going to come from if fossil-fueled generation is not allowed, or only allowed with energy-intensive carbon capture bolted on. This absurd target is a separate issue that megawatt hours of gasoline clearly raises.

And this is just gasoline. The Biden goal is to electrify as much fossil fuel use as possible, including that used to generate electricity.

Natural gas is a real whopper. EIA says Virginia’s 2021 consumption was about 700 trillion Btu, or getting toward twice as much as gasoline. And many gas uses are efficient. Distillate oil, including diesel and heating oil, is another 200 trillion Btu or so. Even coal is around 70 trillion Btu.

One can do this megawatt-hour analysis for every State (or Country). The consumption data for each State is here: https://www.eia.gov/state/. The power generation data is here: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/.

These are enormous numbers. As the Beatles sang: We’d all like to see the Plan.

Author


David Wojick

David Wojick, Ph.D. is an independent analyst working at the intersection of science, technology and policy.

For origins see http://www.stemed.info/engineer_tackles_confusion.html For over 100 prior articles for CFACT see http://www.cfact.org/author/david-wojick-ph-d/ Available for confidential research and consulting.