extreme rainfall – Climate- Science.press

Dust Storms: Hidden Drivers of Extreme Rainfall and Global Precipitation Shifts

Dust storm activity exhibits pronounced global variability characterized by strong regional contrasts and interdecadal oscillations rather than a uniform worldwide trend. Analyses spanning 1979–2023 using reanalysis datasets and ground observations reveal cycles of approximately 10–14 years in global dusty weather frequency, with a general decline from the late 1970s to the late 1990s, followed by fluctuating patterns. Atlantic climate mode, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole, play significant roles in modulating surface winds, energy convergence, and dust emission over major source regions.

Regional trends further underscore this heterogeneity. Declining dust activity has been observed in recent decades over the Taklimakan Desert, southwestern Sahara, and much of northern China, often linked to reduced strong wind days, increased vegetation cover, and improved soil moisture conditions. In contrast, increasing trends have been reported in the northern Sahara, Arabian Desert, Gobi, and Thar Desert. Visibility-based records from 1984–2023 indicate overall declines in dust storm frequency across both the Sahara and Sahel, with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) identified as a key driver through its influence on regional rainfall, vegetation dynamics, and the Saharan Heat Low.

Beyond their direct socioeconomic and health impacts, dust storms exert substantial broader atmospheric effects. Mineral dust aerosols influence the Earth’s radiative balance through scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation and can modify atmospheric circulation patterns. A particularly important recent advance highlights their active role in the global water cycle. Liu et al. (2026) demonstrate that dust storms act as hidden drivers of extreme rainfall and global precipitation shifts. Using global observations, they found that 7-day accumulated precipitation following dust storms can exceed that under dust-free conditions by up to 9.6 mm. This enhancement is primarily attributed to dust aerosols serving as effective ice nuclei, promoting cloud glaciation, the formation of larger ice crystals, and more efficient precipitation processes.

These dust–precipitation interactions have significant implications for regional water resources, agricultural productivity, and the frequency of extreme weather events in both source regions and distant receptor areas. As climate change continues to alter wind regimes, vegetation cover, and moisture availability, understanding the complex feedback between global dust storm variability and atmospheric processes will be critical for improving predictions of transboundary dust impacts and associated hydrological risks.

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Dust storms: Hidden drivers of extreme rainfall and global precipitation shifts

Dust storms: Hidden drivers of extreme rainfall and global precipitation shifts is the name of a new 2026 study in Science Advances.

The study directly addresses aspects of global dust storm variability and its broader atmospheric impacts, making it highly relevant.

Science Advances

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adw686

Authors: Yuzhi Liu , Weiqi Tang, Tianbin Shao, Run Luo, Ziyuan Tan, Dan Li, and Jianping Huang

Abstract

Dust storms, while often seen as harmful, can play an unexpected role in enhancing rainfall. Global observations show that 7-day accumulated precipitation after dust storms exceeds dust-free conditions by up to 9.6 millimeters. Numerical simulations further confirm that dust particles act as ice nuclei, thereby promoting cloud formation and increasing rainfall through the ice crystal effect. Moreover, in regions with rising anthropogenic aerosols, dusts determine precipitation patterns. While elevated levels of anthropogenic aerosols alone tend to boost weak rainfall, the presence of dust aerosols reduces light precipitation and enhances heavier precipitation. Collectively, these findings reveal a dual role of dust storms in shaping global precipitation patterns while adversely affecting the human living environment. This research establishes a mechanistic framework for understanding how dust affects extreme precipitation at the global scale, advancing predictive capabilities for heavy precipitation.

Met Office Fail To Respond To Criticisms

The Met Office were given a right of reply to this GB News story. Instead of actually responding to the specific points raised, they merely regurgitated their Press Release:

By Paul Homewood

https://www.gbnews.com/news/climate-alarm-challenged-as-expert-warns-dont-wreck-the-economy-for-half-a-degree

The Met Office were given a right of reply to this GB News story. Instead of actually responding to the specific points raised, they merely regurgitated their Press Release:

However, according to the Met Office, the UK has warmed by 0.25C per decade since the 1980s, with the past three years among the five warmest on record.

Last year saw the warmest spring, the warmest May, and the wettest winter half-year in over 250 years, the report says.

It also states that days with temperatures 10°C above average have quadrupled since the 1960s, and months of double-average rainfall have risen by 50 per cent.

They could, of course, added that the wettest year was in 1872!

Their waffle about higher temperatures is meaningless without the corresponding data on extreme cold days.

Worst of all is the fact that they still make claims of extreme rainfall against a baseline of 1961-90. This is what the Press Release stated:

“the number of months where counties are recording monthly rainfall totals of at least twice the 1991-2020 monthly average has increased by over 50% compared to the number in 1961-1990”

They know full well that 1961-90 was a much drier interlude compared with both what preceded it and also what followed it.

They have all the data back into the 19thC, so why don’t they show the long term trends? Is it because it would not tell the story they want to tell?

The long-term monthly data for the England & Wales Precipitation Series, for example, shows absolutely no evidence to support the Met Office’s claims:

The KNMI chart only runs to 2021, but since then the wettest month was 177.5mm in October 2023. Nothing, in other words, that alters the trends shown.

York Minster Sell Its Soul For Solar Panels

So what is all this extreme rainfall “officials” are rambling on about?

The longest series of rainfall data in NE England is at Durham, and daily rainfall patently is not getting worse there.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Martin Brumby

We are used to the BBC lying, but I would imagine it would be a serious offence for a churchman:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8np3dj7jdo

So what is all this extreme rainfall “officials” are rambling on about?

The longest series of rainfall data in NE England is at Durham, and daily rainfall patently is not getting worse there.

And the same applies to monthly rainfall. In fact the last time Durham had more than 150mm of rain in a month was in 2010:

https://climexp.knmi.nl/gdcnprcp.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=UKE00156852&STATION=DURHAM&extraargs=

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/durhamdata.txt

So, what about all of this “decay and movement” the BBC is rattling on about.

According to York Minster, they have a 100-year rolling programme of conservation work, needing £2.5m a year:

https://yorkminster.org/discover/conservation/

Current priorities include the St Cuthbert window, irreplaceable glass and refurbishment of the Grand Organ.

There is also ongoing work in the South Quire Aisle:

This work is addressing six centuries of exposure to the elements, not a couple of decades of global warming, as the BBC would like you to think.

These sort of problems are not new.

As reader Martin Brumby recalls, there was a major refurbishment project in 1965. He tells me he visited the works and still has the booklet about the work, which he has sent me.

£2 million was a lot of money in those days, and was obviously a real threat.

The BBC article goes on to glowingly report the installation of solar panels on the Minster roof.

I suspect that this silly scare story has been propagated as a puff piece for renewables, and not a serious technical assessment.

No doubt it will rake in some more funding!

Wrong, Bloomberg, Real World Evidence Proves Extreme Rainfall Hasn’t Become More Frequent or Deadly

A November 4th Bloomberg article, titled “Extreme Rainfall Is Becoming More Frequent and Deadly,” covering the recent floods in Valencia suggests that climate change is producing greater numbers extreme rainfall events that are also more deadly now than before. This is false. Data proves that Bloomberg’s claims fail the truth test since floods aren’t becoming more frequent or severe.

From ClimateRealism

By Anthony Watts

First, it’s important to distinguish between weather and climate. While extreme weather events, like heavy rainfall, are a natural part of weather patterns, they are often wrongly attributed to climate change without actual evidence. As Climate Realism has repeatedly pointed out, many claims that link extreme weather events to climate change data and evidence to show causation. For example, in the case of recent European floods, experts admit that it’s difficult to conclusively link individual events to long-term climate trends without comprehensive studies, yet headlines like Bloomberg’s frequently jump to conclusions about climate change being the cause.

Furthermore, extreme weather events like floods have occurred throughout history, well before the industrial era and the recent rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions. Spain, in particular, has experienced severe floods throughout the centuries due to its unique geographic and meteorological conditions, known as “gota fría” weather pattern, also known as a “cold drop.” Spain’s geographical location makes it susceptible to these well-known local Mediterranean storm patterns. The heavy rainfall followed by floods in Valencia, have tragically been all too common throughout the region’s history driven by well-established natural weather patterns. There is no data supporting the claim that they are a sign of climate change causing worsening weather.

Even reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledge that there is no clear trend in increasing floods, despite claims otherwise. See Figure 1 below:

*Figure 1. Table 12.12 from the IPCC AR6 Report. Note the yellow highlighted topics, and the lack of climate attribution in the present and forecast for the future as indicated by the white spaces.*

The IPCC findings indicate that, globally, the data does not support a significant increase in the frequency or intensity of rainfall events. Therefore, media outlets attributing every extreme weather event to climate change are engaging in what could be termed as alarmism, rather than reporting based on sound scientific data.

In addition, much of the increased damage from heavy rains resulting in floods in recent years can be attributed to urban expansion and poor land-use planning, particularly in flood-prone areas. As cities like Valencia grow, impermeable surfaces expand, leading to more runoff and higher flood risks when heavy rains occur. The costs of flood damage are often more reflective of increased development and human activity in vulnerable areas rather than a direct consequence of climate-driven increases in rainfall.

In summary, while extreme weather events like the Valencia floods are tragic and warrant strong responses in terms of preparedness and resilience, there is no solid evidence tying this specific event—or the purported increase in such events—to global climate change.

Instead of leaping to conclusions, Bloomberg and other media outlets should focus on reporting about realistic strategies like improved infrastructure, better flood management, and adaptation to natural weather variability—solutions that address flooding problems without resorting to unfounded climate scare tactics.

Flash Floods In Spain

Yes, the flash floods in Spain have been devastating. And, yes they have happened before.

But the BBC weatherman also claims that extreme rainfall events like these are becoming more common

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckmgmdxg254t

Yes, the flash floods in Spain have been devastating. And, yes they have happened before.

But the BBC weatherman also claims that extreme rainfall events like these are becoming more common:

As usual the BBC do not provide any evidence for such irresponsible claims.

And the rainfall data for Valencia, which was worst hit, provides no such evidence either:

https://climexp.knmi.nl/ecaprcp.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=237&STATION=VALENCIA&extraargs=

KNMI daily rainfall data shows categorically that extreme rainfall is neither more common or extreme.

According to the Spanish weather agency, rainfall peaked at about 200mm in the area, certainly not unprecedented:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/spain-valencia-flash-floods-chiva-video-rain-bodies-found-weather-b1190929.html

The BBC say more fell up in the hills at Chiva, but that does not have a long term record, and inevitably rainfall will be much higher as the moist air rises rapidly over the hills. In other words, chalk and cheese.

Not for the first time, the BBC are using human tragedy to push their increasingly hysterical climate agenda.

Is UK Rainfall Becoming More Extreme? Not at Oxford.

It’s worth taking a closer look at daily rainfall in Oxford, as it has such a long database, back to 1827. It tells us a lot about the weather in recent years, things that the Met Office want to hide from us.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Although we keep being told by the Met Office that our weather has been so wet in recent years because a “a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture”, the principal factor is, and always has been, the number of days when it rains. In other words a meteorological phenomenon, not a climatic one.

The general definition of a rainday is when rainfall exceeds 1mm. The chart below plots these at Oxford. Data is from KNMI:

https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/pgdcnUK000056225.dat

Last year was 5th wettest and also featured high in the number of raindays. The years 2000, 2012 and 2014 also feature highly, as well as earlier ones such as 1872, 1916, 1927, 1951, 1958 and 1960.

Some periods have plenty of raindays, others much less. But there is no apparent trend in either direction.

But we can also analyse the average rainfall intensity, that is rainfall per rainday:

Last year had one of the highest intensities, in large part because spring and early summer was so dry. These are the times of year when daily rainfall is low, with mainly showery weather, so the overall average is bound to be exaggerated. But 2023 was by no means unusual, as there have been other years with similar rainfall intensity, such as 1915, 1949 and 1960.

More notable though is the occurrence of those years in the 1830s, when rainfall was clearly much more intense. Hardly evidence for the Met Office’s theory!

All of this is, of course, weather. I defy anybody to find a pattern or trend towards rainfall becoming more intense in Oxford in the above chart.

Again the overall trend suggests that rainfall intensity has been declining over the period of record.

Maybe the Met Office would like to explain.

Claim: San Diego Should be a “Sponge City” to Soak up Climate Crisis Floodwater

Professor Franco Montalto of Drexel University wants to slow runoff and allow parts of the city to flood, to mitigate damage from extreme rainfall and reduce runoff pollution.

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Professor Franco Montalto of Drexel University wants to slow runoff and allow parts of the city to flood, to mitigate damage from extreme rainfall and reduce runoff pollution.

As climate change amplifies urban flooding, here’s how communities can become ‘sponge cities’

Published: May 8, 2024 4.03am AEST

Franco Montalto
Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University

“When it rains, it pours” once was a metaphor for bad things happening in clusters. Now it’s becoming a statement of fact about rainfall in a changing climate.

Across the continental U.S., intense single-day precipitation events are growing more frequent, fueled by warming air that can hold increasing levels of moisture. Most recently, areas north of Houston received 12 to 20 inches (30 to 50 centimeters) of rain in several days in early May 2024, leading to swamped roads and evacuations.

Earlier in the year, San Diego received 2.72 inches (7 centimeters) of rain on Jan. 22 that damaged nearly 600 homes and displaced about 1,200 people. Two weeks later, an atmospheric river dumped 5 to 10 inches (12 to 25 centimeters) of rain on Los Angeles, causing widespread mudslides and leaving more than a million people without power.

Events like these have sparked interest in so-called sponge cities – a comprehensive approach to urban flood mitigation that uses innovative landscape and drainage designs to reduce and slow down runoff, while allowing certain parts of the city to flood safely during extreme weather. Sponge city techniques differ from other stormwater management approaches because they are scaled to much larger storms and need to be applied across nearly all urban surfaces.

…Read more: https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-amplifies-urban-flooding-heres-how-communities-can-become-sponge-cities-217075

Model based claims that flooding is getting worse on a global scale are not backed by observational evidence.

As for the “sponge city” plan, this all sounds fancy and modern, but what about putting peoples homes first, and just building bigger drains?

In my subtropical town on the East Coast of Australia, we have street drains you can comfortably walk along. The kinds of rain which causes major flooding in San Diego, we call that “Wet Season”.

It takes weeks of heavy tropical deluge to even begin to flood those suspiciously flat areas in my town which nobody should ever have built on. Where I live on a slightly elevated location, it would take a direct hit from a tropical cyclone to do real damage. My home is very rarely threatened by floods, even when my street turns into a river – all the runoff water gushes harmlessly into our oversize drainage system, and within 20 minutes of the rain stopping all the surface water is gone.

I’m not denying runoff management plays a role, slowing water entry into river systems can reduce peak flood. But sometimes you just have to move the water very quickly to somewhere else.

In the article above Professor Franco Montalo emphasised the benefits of greener water management systems, such as reduced pollution wherever you are dumping the runoff. But if homes are threatened, who cares about a little pollution? Keeping people’s homes safe from floods should be the highest priority.

The New York Times Conflates Weather with Climate Change (Again)

A recent article in the New York Times (NYT) claims that coastal cities are “bracing” for climate change, which they claim is making events like heavy rainfall and atmospheric rivers more common and severe. This is false.

By Linnea Lueken

A recent article in the New York Times (NYT) claims that coastal cities are “bracing” for climate change, which they claim is making events like heavy rainfall and atmospheric rivers more common and severe. This is false. It is wise for coastal cities to improve their resilience in response to flooding and storms which have occurred throughout history. However, real-world data show climate change has not made atmospheric river events and other instances of extreme rainfall worse.

The article, titled “Coastal Cities Brace for Climate Change,” comes with the ominous subtitle “[t]his week’s atmospheric rivers may only be the beginning.” Writer Manuela Andreoni writes that flooding from recent storms has “battered cities in the South and East Coast,” and “Overlapping atmospheric rivers over the West Coast have brought heavy rains that are likely to come back in the next few days.”

Andreoni goes on to assert that climate change makes these kinds of events more likely, because warmer air “holds more moisture, which means storms in many parts of the world are getting wetter and more intense[.]”

Warm air does holds more moisture than cooler air does, and the modest warming of the past century has occurred alongside a similarly modest increase in overall precipitation in the northern hemisphere, but the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found is no direct correlation to flooding. The As pointed out in Climate at a Glance: Floods, the IPCC admits that there is low confidence in even the sign of any changes in the frequency or severity of flood events. Additionally, the cost of floods in the United States in relation to to GDP has dropped over time, despite the fact that infrastructure has increased in value.

*U.S. flood damage as a proportion of U.S. gross domestic product. Data plotted by Bjorn Lomborg.*

The factors that influence extreme precipitation events are more complex than the NYT leads one to believe.

In regards to atmospheric rivers in particular, again, these events are not new nor are they becoming worse due to climate change. As meteorologist Anthony Watts explains in the Climate Realism post “Wrong, Washington Post – History and Data Contradict Claims of Worsening ‘Atmospheric Rivers’;”

[…]a peer-reviewed paper published in 2020 used satellite and sounding data and found there has been no trend influencing tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, in the region these west coast atmospheric rivers originate.

Even more powerful than that, a data analysis of global relative humidity data over the land and oceans (where atmospheric rivers originate) and publicly available from the UK Met Office, shows relative humidity actually declining.

Atmospheric rivers and major flooding are historically common on the west coast. The worst known flood in California history occurred in 1862, in which an atmospheric river event dumped an equivalent of ten feet of water between rain and snow on California, resulting in massive flooding in the Sacramento Valley. Core drilling revealed similar and worse floods occurred in the same region in AD 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605.

The NYT also claims that coastal regions are “especially vulnerable to climate change, not just because of storms and floods, but from rising seas and erosion.” These claims have been thoroughly refuted in previous Climate Realism posts, here, here, and here, for example. Coastal areas are obviously vulnerable to sea level rise, but it’s not dangerously accelerating, and other factors such as overdevelopment, land compaction and subsidence, natural geography, and poor water infrastructure are larger factors in determining whether a coastal city is especially flood prone in the United States.

The rest of the article is relatively reasonable, detailing ways that cities are improving their infrastructure to improve storm resilience, such as restoring estuaries and other coastal ecosystems that buffer coastlines from storm surge. Hardening infrastructure is a good idea regardless of climate change. We made this point at Climate Realism, in response to similar previous articles published by the NYT.

The NYT and its writers should examine actual data available regarding flooding, atmospheric rivers, and heavy rainfall, before hyping climate change as a cause of problems with coastal cities. Had they done so, they would find that there is no reason to blame naturally occurring, extreme weather events on climate change, and they would avoid misleading their readership.

The post The New York Times Conflates Weather with Climate Change (Again) appeared first on ClimateRealism.

No Significant Precipitation Trend Change In Germany Since Recordings Began In 1881

More drought and more extreme rainfall are occurring : that’s what Germans are often told by the climate hysterical media and activists. Yet, a look at precipitation data for Germany over the past 140 years shows no significant change at all.

From NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 18. August 2023

Hat-tip: Tim Reality at Twitter

*The above chart shows the mean amount of precipitation for Germany from 1881 – 2019. Source: Tim Reality here.*

A look at extreme precipitation events as defined as 30 mm of precipitation or more also show no trend increase in extreme events:

*Based on the weather data from 78 measurement stations of the German DWD national weather service. Chart: Spiegel*

Finally we look at the number of days in a year that saw 10 mm or more rain, since 1950:

Tag: extreme rainfall

Met Office Fail To Respond To Criticisms

Like this:

York Minster Sell Its Soul For Solar Panels

Like this:

Wrong, Bloomberg, Real World Evidence Proves Extreme Rainfall Hasn’t Become More Frequent or Deadly

Like this:

Flash Floods In Spain

Like this:

Is UK Rainfall Becoming More Extreme? Not at Oxford.

Like this:

Claim: San Diego Should be a “Sponge City” to Soak up Climate Crisis Floodwater

Like this:

The New York Times Conflates Weather with Climate Change (Again)

Like this:

No Significant Precipitation Trend Change In Germany Since Recordings Began In 1881

Like this: