Tag: Coffee

Quit Lying, The New Republic, Climate Change Isn’t Threatening ‘Favorite Holiday Foods’

A recent story published by The New Republic claims that various foods, popular especially during the Christmas holiday season, are declining due to climate change, perhaps soon to disappear from store shelves entirely. This is false. Despite the anecdotal tales told by The New Republic about specific farmers’ respective plights, U.N. data clearly demonstrate a substantial growth in the production of each of the crops discussed over the past 35 years of global warming.

A selection of spices, including cinnamon sticks, star anise, cloves, and dried orange slices, arranged on a dark surface.

From ClimateRealism

By H. Sterling Burnett

A recent story published by The New Republic claims that various foods, popular especially during the Christmas holiday season, are declining due to climate change, perhaps soon to disappear from store shelves entirely. This is false. Despite the anecdotal tales told by The New Republic about specific farmers’ respective plights, U.N. data clearly demonstrate a substantial growth in the production of each of the crops discussed over the past 35 years of global warming.

In the story, “Climate Change Is Coming for Your Favorite Holiday Foods,” New Republic intern Rachel Kahn writes, “Chocolate, vanilla, coffee, cinnamon: The ingredients for your favorite holiday foods are becoming increasingly harder to grow because of climate change.” If true, that would be news to the world market for these foods, each of which have seen substantial production growth since 2000 and before.

Climate Realism has repeatedly refuted past media claims that climate change was causing a decline in coffee and cocoa production, here, here, here, and here, for a few examples, and so we won’t spend further time on these thoroughly debunked claims, other than to point out, FAO data show that since 1990:

  • Cocoa production has grown by more than 157 percent.
  • In the Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) cocoa bean production increased by more than a 194 percent (nearly doubling, and setting a new record in 2023);
  • In Ghana cocoa bean production expanded by just over 122 percent;
  • And in Nigeria cocoa bean production grew by almost 17 percent.

As far as coffee goes, FAO data show that since 1990, global coffee production has increased by 82 percent, setting the new record for highest production in 2023, including substantial growth in major coffee producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam.

The New Republic piece throws the spices vanilla and cinnamon into the mix for the holiday tastes supposedly threatened by climate change. Yet, just like with coffee and cocoa, the asserted decline does not bear up under scrutiny. Vanilla production has more than doubled since 1990, according to FAO data – with production increasing by about 135 percent. Cinnamon production expanded even more dramatically, with a production increase exceeding 289 percent. (See the graph, below)

Line graph illustrating the global production increase of vanilla and cinnamon from 1990 to 2022, showing vanilla production in blue and cinnamon production in red.

With the tinniest bit of effort, Kahn or The New Republic’s fact-checkers and editors could have discovered these facts themselves. They evidently couldn’t let facts get in the way of a scary holiday story.

It is true that the loss of coffee, chocolate (made from cocoa), cinnamon or vanilla, would make the holidays less festive and tasty. Yet thankfully, and directly refuting The New Republic’s assertion, it is impossible to tease out or discern a tangible threat to the continued availability of those treats in the readily available data or production trends. It is sad when, rather than an exploration of the facts, a false narrative drives the news cycle, but that’s just what seemingly happened in this New Republic story, a fairy-tale only the pre-conversion Grinch could love.

Coffee Ban Fears as EU Calls Caffeinated Drink “Harmful”

Coffee is “harmful” to humans, the European Union has said in a regulation banning the use of caffeine as a pesticide, prompting fears of a coffee ban.

From The Daily Sceptic

By Will Jones

Coffee is “harmful” to humans, the European Union has said in a regulation banning the use of caffeine as a pesticide, prompting fears of a coffee ban. The Telegraph has the story.

Brussels bureaucrats said there was scientific evidence to back up claims that “caffeine is harmful to humans if swallowed”.

Their report said the substance, a central component of coffee, could cause adverse effects on the heart, hydration and body temperature, as well as triggering anxiety and sleep problems.

There was not sufficient research to judge whether caffeine is a risk for people who work with it or live near where it is processed, it added.

The report was produced to reinforce a decision to ban caffeine from being used to kill snails and slugs around cabbage and potato patches.

But it has prompted fears that Brussels regulations could one day target coffee, a staple of the European way of life.

Anders Vistisen, a Danish MEP and chief whip of Patriots for Europe said: “More unwelcome and needless inference from meddling bureaucrats in Brussels!

“What is this all leading to? Are they seriously going to eventually force us to drink decaffeinated coffee? It’s becoming ridiculous.

“Nobody thinks smoking and whiskey are good for you, but they add pleasure to many people’s lives,” he added.

Worth reading in full.

Yet Another Coffee Scare

In Britain, we drink about 98 million cups per day, with an estimated two billion consumed worldwide. The coffee industry sustains 210,000 jobs here, and around 100 million farmers depend on it globally.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Magness

More drivel from the Telegraph:

Every morning, before doing anything else, I make coffee. It’s a ritual as much as a caffeine fix, with little thought given to its provenance. Yet this morning, I’ve got my hands on something a little different. Lighter in colour than my usual jet-black brew, it is more nuanced in flavour, with hints of grapefruit and less bitterness. It is delicious. It may also secure the future of one of the world’s most popular drinks.

In Britain, we drink about 98 million cups per day, with an estimated two billion consumed worldwide. The coffee industry sustains 210,000 jobs here, and around 100 million farmers depend on it globally. From instant coffee at a greasy spoon to a fancy oat-milk latte, coffee is big business. Yet its future is at risk.

A recent report by Christian Aid warned that climate change could reduce the land available for growing coffee by 54 per cent by 2100, even if global temperatures are kept to internationally agreed targets. On May 17, the World Meteorological Organisation said that temperatures could breach the 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2027. It’s not good news for coffee growers and lovers.

According to Dr Aaron Davis, a global expert in coffee and climate change, and head of coffee research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, coffee is one of the most researched plants when it comes to climate change, with almost 150 studies published, and the outlook seems dire. Even if commitments to reduce carbon emissions are met, a 2022 study in Nature suggests coffee production will still see a rapid decline in countries accounting for 75 per cent of the world’s arabica coffee supply. 

“It’s not something that’s going to happen in the future, it’s already happening,” says Dr Davis. “It’s very real.” 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/drinks/why-your-morning-coffee-is-facing-extinction/

Notice the comment, it’s already happening. So this is not just the usual scare about something happening in the distant future; it’s a very specific claim that climate change is already affecting coffee production.

And is it?

Plainly not. The UN figures go up to 2021, and although there was sharp decline that year, such drops frequently occur. Even then 2021 coffee output was the 4th highest on record.

https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

The Telegraph goes on to specifically mention three countries:

The world’s largest producer, Brazil, and Vietnam, the second, have both experienced concerning weather patterns just this year: extreme heat and drought in Vietnam, heavy rains in Brazil. “Last year, coffee harvests were influenced by drought in many countries, and long-term climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular,” Dr Davis explains. In Uganda, exports fell by about 20 per cent in 2022. 

But the UN data shows nothing of concern in the long term trends in any of these. Note also the weasel words, climate change may cause those drought periods to become longer, more severe and more regular. On the other hand, maybe it won’t!

Interestingly the drop in Brazilian coffee output in 2021 was due to severe frosts, the opposite of what global warming is supposed to bring:

The journalist who wrote this piffle is the Telegraph’s Assistant Food Editor. I suggest that in future he sticks to restaurants and recipes, and leaves serious stuff like this to economic experts.

Rest Easy, New York Times, Popular Coffee Cultivars are Safe

By contrast, worldwide coffee trends are very positive amid modest global climate change.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

The New York Times (NYT) recently posted an article claiming that climate change threatens popular coffee cultivars, while describing the rising popularity in Uganda of a different coffee variety that is supposedly more resistant to drought and high temperatures than the top two varieties. Data indicates the coffee variety that Uganda is promoting is unnecessary; it certainly hasn’t improved Uganda’s coffee yields. By contrast, worldwide coffee trends are very positive amid modest global climate change.

The NYT article, “What Climate Change Could Mean for the Coffee You Drink,” focuses on a rising coffee strain that is not new but is becoming more popular, called Liberica excelsa, in Uganda. While this coffee is grown in many parts of the world, it is native to Central African tropical rainforest regions.

The NYT asserts that the two most popular kinds of coffee, Arabica and the less-expensive robusta, “are at grave risk in the era of climate change.” Liberica excelsa is said to be better at withstanding “the heat, drought and disease supersized by global warming.” Ugandan farmers are expanding production of this strain on their coffee plantations.

According to the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) data, Ugandan coffee yields have indeed suffered in recent years, dropping precipitously from the peaks experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s, even as production overall climbed. (See Figure below)

By contrast, although the FAO does not break coffee data by type, in general coffee worldwide has seen a gradual climb in both production and yield. World production of coffee has broken records at least 12 times in the last 21 years, and world yield has likewise broken records 12 times.

Indeed, between 1990 and 2021, the last year for which data is currently available coffee yields increased by nearly 56 percent and coffee production increased approximately 64 percent. The world records for coffee production and yield were set as recently as 2020.

Clearly, despite modest warming, coffee production and yields around the world are doing well. As shown in a Climate Realism post, here, Eastern African nations’ combined coffee production has been increasing. Coffee is a tropical plant to begin with, with Arabica originating in the humid, hot rainforests of Ethiopia. Drought logically will impact these plants, especially if they are being cultivated outside of a rainforest biome.

Despite NYT’s attempted fearmongering and struggling coffee production in Uganda, worldwide, coffee production is steadily rising. The mainstream media’s false claims about climate change harming coffee production is not new; Climate Realism has debunked similar claims across the mainstream media, including here, here, and here, among other instances.

Also, one coffee specialist quoted by The NYT says that Liberica excelsa is a more aromatic and “higher quality” coffee than the currently popular robusta, so perhaps besides drought hardiness, there is another good reason to see more Liberica in stores. Time will tell if that variety ends brings more success to the farmers attempt which grow it. In the meantime, it doesn’t appear that coffee at large is going anywhere, any time soon.

Linnea Lueken

Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy.

While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”

Linnea Lueken