Tag: Aviation

£1bn Green Hit: UK Sustainable Fuel Mandate to Cost RAF Over £1 Billion

The UK’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Mandate, which took effect on 1 January 2025, applies to all jet fuel supplied for flights departing the UK—including Royal Air Force (RAF) operations—with no military exemption. Ministry of Defence figures indicate this will cost the RAF more than £1 billion over the next 15 years.

The £1bn figure is well-substantiated by official MoD/RAF estimates and recent parliamentary disclosures. It stems from the UK’s SAF Mandate (effective 1 Jan 2025), which applies universally to all jet fuel supplied for UK departures — with no exemption for military use.

The estimates use 250 million litres of annual baseline fuel consumption (training, routine ops from UK bases; excludes variable high-tempo operational flying). Costs reflect the premium via tradable SAF certificates (market averages ~£3.30/litre for conventional SAF, ~£4.00 for PtL).

Key annual figures:

  • 2025: £16.5m (2% obligation)
  • 2030: £83.4m (10%)
  • 2040: £187.6m (22%, with 3.5% PtL sub-target)

Cumulative over ~15 years: Exceeds £1 billion, with annual costs surpassing £100m by around 2040. Buy-out (penalty) ceilings are higher, but market compliance is assumed cheaper.

The policy is a deliberate demand-pull to scale a nascent industry.

Whether the emissions benefits and future cost curves justify the near-term hit on defence budgets is a legitimate debate — especially given uncertain scalability, feedstock limits, and geopolitical priorities.

The £1bn is not hype; it’s grounded in MoD modelling.

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RAF to spend £1bn switching to sustainable jet fuel

Government’s net-zero aviation mandate predicted to cost British military £100m each year by 2040

The RAF will spend more than £1bn over the next 15 years on switching to sustainable jet fuel.

Ministry of Defence (MoD) figures show the move to sustainable fuel for RAF flights will cost more than £100m each year by 2040. The Telegraph has the story.

The Government’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate on all flights departing the UK will apply to journeys by RAF aircraft on military exercises and deployments.

Sustainable fuel can be produced from used cooking oil and household rubbish, and reduces lifetime emissions by up to 80 per cent compared to conventional jet fuel.

However, it is typically three times the price of regular fuel, so the mandate will add significantly to the British military’s fuel bills over the next 15 years.

By 2040, ministers say 22 per cent of aviation fuel must come from sustainable sources, even though official projections show it will still be almost twice as expensive as conventional fuel by that date.

Figures released by the MoD in response to parliamentary questions from the Conservatives show that the total additional cost of using sustainable fuel will be more than £1bn.

The same sum could buy 12 F-35 Lightning stealth fighters or a Type 45 warship, or pay the salaries of 2,500 regular soldiers for 15 years.

Sir Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure to release his defence investment plan, a 10-year strategy to fund military investment to meet threats posed by Russia and China.

The strategy was intended to be published last year, but has been delayed repeatedly amid conflict between the MoD and the Treasury about the size of the investment.

Read the full story here.

Airlines warn that net zero targets are slipping beyond reach

Two of Britain’s biggest airlines have warned that the Government’s net zero targets are at risk of becoming unachievable.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

The Telegraph reports:

Headline from The Telegraph discussing airlines' concerns over net zero targets.
An illustrated green airplane taking off with the text 'Going green has never been so fun!' in a bright blue sky with clouds.

Two of Britain’s biggest airlines have warned that the Government’s net zero targets are at risk of becoming unachievable.

Virgin Atlantic and International Airlines Group (IAG), the parent company of British Airways, have raised concerns over a mandate for carriers to use at least 10pc of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.

They said this is becoming increasingly challenging amid a shortage of production across the UK, where there is yet to be a single SAF plant built.

Holly Boyd-Boland, an executive at Virgin, said the point is fast approaching when it will no longer be possible to convincingly claim that net zero goals can be met.

She told a conference in London: “We’re at risk of a growing credibility gap for us as a sector in terms of where we set our ambition and what we actually deliver.

“From a consumer perspective and wider stakeholders, we’re getting close to an inflection point where we cannot demonstrate supply in the system and a reduction in emissions.”

Jonathon Counsell, of IAG, said global SAF production totalled 1m tonnes last year – which was “a drop in the ocean” compared to the 400m-500m tonnes required to deliver net zero emissions by 2050.

Full story here.

It was clear from the outset that SAF targets were little more than green virtue signalling. There was never any sort of justification, economic or environmental, while the rest of the world is carrying on as normal

It is a pity Virgin and the rest did not tell the truth in the first place.

Meanwhile Shell have cancelled plans to build a giant biofuel factory in the Netherlands because “SAF and biodiesel were too expensive and insufficiently competitive”:

Again, from the Telegraph:

Headline discussing the skepticism surrounding the UK's net zero aviation targets.

We would be a global force in “jet zero”, promised Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, five years ago. Britain would lead the way in creating “sustainable aviation”, with world-leading research on planes that could fly across the Atlantic without doing any harm to the environment.

Right across the Western world, leaders were making similar pledges, investing billions in new types of fuels and engines, while slapping punitive taxes on the old, dirty jets to make sure we switched to cleaner ones as quickly as possible.

The jet zero project is now in full-scale retreat, with companies pulling out of a market that doesn’t exist, and countries scaling back on aviation taxes. It isn’t going to happen – and we would be far better off cutting carbon emissions elsewhere while allowing the aviation industry to flourish.

It has been another bad week for the cheerleaders for sustainable flying. Shell decided that a huge new plant in the Netherlands that was designed to be one of Europe’s major converters of waste into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biodiesel was too expensive and insufficiently competitive.

The decision was, according to Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberium, “another nail in the ideological coffin for SAF and biofuels”. Airlines still face mandatory targets to use set quotas of green fuels, but it is hard to know where they will get them, given that even a company as large as Shell, with lots of world-class expertise at its disposal, does not seem to be able to work out how to make the stuff at a reasonable cost.

Meanwhile, a few countries are even giving up on aviation taxes. From July, anyone getting a plane out of Sweden will no longer have to pay a green levy on their ticket, after its government decided that the “flight-shaming” movement had done too much damage to the industry. India and Germany have also reduced the taxes on air travel. With grim inevitability, Britain’s tax-obsessed Labour Government is still putting them up, with yet more rises in air passenger duty in the last Budget, but at least some countries are recognising they do more harm than good.

Full story here.

Dale Vince’s net zero airline in disarray after sacking almost entire workforce

Ecojet has sought to slash costs after delaying its planned launch until next year

A cartoonish green airplane with smoke trails taking off against a blue sky with fluffy clouds, featuring the text 'Going green has never been so fun!'

Ecojet has sought to slash costs after delaying its planned launch until next year

A leading Labour donor’s plans to establish the world’s first all-electric airline have been thrown into doubt after it sacked almost its entire workforce.

Ecojet, which is owned by Dale Vince, the founder of renewable energy firm Ecotricity, made 11 employees redundant earlier this year – having previously had a team of 13. TheTelegraph has the story.

The airline, which had claimed it was on course to become the “flag carrier for green Britain”, has sought to slash costs after delaying its planned launch until next year. Ecojet had previously hoped to start operations this summer.

It comes as Mr Vince is struggling to raise £20m to kickstart the airline and secure a crucial air operator’s certificate from the UK Civil Aviation Authority.

Ecojet, which is majority-owned by Ecotricity, said it had delayed its launch as it navigates a “tough investment market.”

The airline aims to offer flights from Edinburgh to locations such as Southampton, using turboprop aircraft refitted with hydrogen-electric engines built in Scotland by ZeroAvia, which would emit only water as a by-product.

It plans to establish a fleet of 20-seat Twin Otter planes, to be followed by larger 70-seat ATR 72s from Airbus and Italian partner Leonardo.

Ecojet said last year that it had begun hiring pilots and crew, while also signing a deal for up to 50 nine-seater flying taxis from ARC Aerosystems.

An Ecojet spokesman said that adviser Wyvern Partners had done “a fantastic job” helping to raise funds, adding that an “airline for a Green Britain is still coming”.

Read the full story here.

Two hydrogen electric aircraft at an airport with a sign overhead reading 'Hydrogen Electric.' Ground crew in orange vests and hard hats are preparing for operations.

Why green aviation fuel failed to take off

For those flying south this summer, the prospect of “green fuel” one day powering their planes down to the south of France or the Med may mean a little less guilt over their climate-destroying air travel.

A commercial airplane taking off over a field of corn, with green leaves extending from its wings, symbolizing sustainable aviation fuel.

The quest to make flying greener has descended into a reliance on imports and spiralling costs

For those flying south this summer, the prospect of “green fuel” one day powering their planes down to the south of France or the Med may mean a little less guilt over their climate-destroying air travel. The Telegraph has the story.

British factories pumping out climate-friendly aviation fuel have long been a pipe-dream for the aviation industry and some holidaymakers, and it seemed one step closer six years ago when British Airways announced plans for the UK’s first factory to convert waste into jet fuel.

The futuristic plant, to be built by fuels firm Velocys on a field near the Humber estuary, in north Lincolnshire, would see household rubbish destined for landfills turned into thousands of tonnes of green plane fuel, powering the airline into a sustainable future.

Alex Cruz, then-chief executive of BA, said the fuel – known as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) – would be a “game-changer for aviation”.

But six years after British Airways’ Velocys announcement – and a year after the SAF plant should have gone into production – that dream seems as far away as ever.

Velocys’ Humber estuary site remains as an empty field – a recent image shows that the only structure on it is a portaloo.

The failure of the plan highlights the difficulty green aviation has faced getting off the ground, made worse by a government push to force airlines to use more green fuels.

Read the full story here.

Seventh Carbon Budget–Final Thoughts

Just a few final observations on the Carbon Budget:

Planet Earth sunrise over cloudy ocean from outer space (3d artwork)

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Just a few final observations on the Carbon Budget:

Transport

The targets for EVs are not a surprise, given that they are in line with the ZEV mandate and the 2030 ban on ICE vehicles.

However, they effectively have ruled out hydrogen powered HGVs and have set a target of 63% electric HGVs on the road by 2040, despite the fact that the technology does not exist to make it workable.

There is also the usual nonsense about switching to public transport and walking, with a 7% switch by 2035.

Heat Pumps

The CCC want annual installations to hit 450,000 in 2030, and 1.5m in 2035. This will inevitably mean a ban on gas boilers by 2035 but also raises the question of how people will be forced to buy them in the interim.

Agriculture

CB7 demands a massive reduction in emissions of 39% relative to 2022 in the agricultural sector, and this will mean large reductions in the number of cattle and sheep, along with planting woodlands on good agricultural land.

However, reducing meat and dairy production in the UK will inevitably lead to replacement by imports, with a much higher carbon footprint. The CCC therefore demand import controls and tariffs to price them out of the market.

The end result will be much higher food prices.

In terms of numbers, they want us to eat 25% less meat by 2040, with a similar reduction in livestock herds. The effect on British farming will be catastrophic, and once again we have to ask how all of this will be enforced.

Aviation

The CCC veered away from earlier attacks on flying, quite deliberately in my view. Otherwise, Miliband’s position in the cabinet would have been untenable, given the plans for new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick. This really does prove that the CCC is not the independent body it is made out to be.

In place of demands to reduce flights and frequent flyer taxes, they call for emissions cuts of only 17% by 2040, with the emphasis on sustainable aviation fuel. The cost of this, estimated at seven times the price of kerosene, will be passed onto passengers, which they hope will reduce demand.

Passengers will also have to pay the full cost of “engineered removals” – basically direct air capture, the mammoth expensive and unproven process of taking carbon dioxide out of the air and storing it – to cover residual emissions.

Hope for alternative fuels and direct air capture rely of course on technology developing, but the CCC have this ominous warning of what is to come if it does not:

Translation – limits on flights.

Holidays abroad in a few years’ time, along with much of our lives, will be controlled by the government.