2026 March Arctic Ice Recovery Slowed by Vortex

The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of March 2026, the month whose average is taken as the annual maximum. As noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.

From Science Matters

By Ron Clutz

The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of March 2026, the month whose average is taken as the annual maximum. As noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle. This may be changing according to the most recent image from AER PV blog.

Figure 12. Observed 10 mb geopotential heights (dam; contours) and temperature anomalies (°C; shading) across the Northern Hemisphere averaged from 17 Mar. (b) Same as (a) except forecasted averaged from 28 Mar to 1 Apr 2026. The forecasts are from the 00Z 17 Mar 2026 GFS ensemble.

Remarkably, the 2025 annual daily extent maximum of 14.48M km2 was on day 73 of that year.  Arctic ice reached 14.55 on day 63 in 2026, and continued near that level until day 74, before starting the usual decline.

The chart below shows the 20-year averages for Arctic ice extents for March along with 2026, 2025 and 2006 as well as SII v.4.

The 20-year average maximum daily ice extent appears at 14.93M km2 on day 71 before starting to decline. MASIE 2006 and 2026 started this period the same and tracked each other until 2026 ended higher by ~200k km2, and slightly above 2025.

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 90 across regions of the Arctic ocean.

Region2026090Day 90 Average2026-Ave.20060902026-2006
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere1414910114587351-43825013913402235699
 (1) Beaufort_Sea1071070107027979110686832387
 (2) Chukchi_Sea96600696432516819590916915
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea1087137108630982810846272510
 (4) Laptev_Sea89784589713570989777371
 (5) Kara_Sea930404918948114569221648240
 (6) Barents_Sea582189653649-71460623912-41723
 (7) Greenland_Sea569080667067-97988604935-35856
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence14037371384371193661026934376804
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago85493185334915828516913240
 (10) Hudson_Bay126088712555545333124038920498
 (11) Central_Arctic32230203234756-117363241074-18054
 (12) Bering_Sea819147705446113701662863156284
 (13) Baltic_Sea3685560091-23235129348-92492
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk433109826350-393242588167-155058

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average.  The majority of the 3% overall deficit is from Sea of Okhotsk, down ~400k km2,  Smaller deficits are in Barents and Greenland seas, partly offset by a surplus in Bering sea. All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.

As for the March Monthly Averages, here is the history:

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.

Guardian: “… Urgent Theatre … the key to tackling climate change”

The climate movement once again delivering us from the hope that the world has reached peak insanity.

Amal at the The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland.The Walk Productions

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

The climate movement once again delivering us from the hope that the world has reached peak insanity.

Could a new wave of urgent theatre hold the key to tackling climate change?

Kate Wyver Thu 8 May 2025 17.00 AEST

From a New Forest giant inspiring an asthmatic teen to a herd of animal puppets walking to the Arctic Circle, theatre far and wide is taking action – but with energy and optimism, rather than doom-laden tales

Climate stories are typically defined by despair. The future we are told of is such a tragic, barren dystopia, it’s hard to look at head-on. But a flood of theatre-makers are writing their way past fear into something more useful, inspiring action through love, music, puppetry and folklore. “The ones who profit most from the idea that we’re doomed are the oil companies and the people massively polluting our planet,” reasons playwright Flora Wilson Brown. “If we allow ourselves to think there’s nothing we can do, we won’t do anything. There’s still time to act.”

…

These plays seek to take what often feels invisible and lay it out for an audience to see more clearly. Abroad, a stampede of animals are confronting this challenge on even larger stages. In 2021, a 12ft-tall puppet of a 10-year-old Syrian girl, called Little Amal, walked 8,000km (5,000 miles) from Turkey to the UK to raise awareness of the urgent plight of refugees. This summer, the same team began a 20,000km (12,400 mile) journey, shepherding The Herds, a group of lifesize animal puppets, from the Congo basin to the Arctic Circle. “The people who depend on the forest are feeling the climate crisis now,” says David Lan, one of the core team and former artistic director of the Young Vic. “Animals are already moving from their ancient habitat because the Earth is too hot. We wanted to dramatise this to express the way life is already being strongly affected by what’s happening to the climate.”

The project leapfrogs people’s resistance to admit that the climate emergency is already making our home uninhabitable by placing it in front of them, in public spaces. …

…Read more: 

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2025/may/08/the-beautiful-future-is-coming-hot-mess-bringing-the-outside-in-the-herds

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m thinking a society which can afford to support a group of committed artists walking a giant herd of puppets on a 5000 mile journey probably isn’t down to its last rice cracker.

Real crisis involve food riots and people dropping dead in the streets. Fake crisis apparently require herds of puppets.