A new study in Frontiers in Marine Science (published 7 October 2026) estimates that fully restored and protected oyster reefs in the top 10 hotspot countries could deliver a Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP, or “ecopotential”) of about $12 trillion per year in ecosystem services.

Researchers Matteo Convertino and Yuhan Wu (Tsinghua University and Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School) calculated this figure by combining habitat suitability modeling with valuations of services such as oyster production and trade, water filtration, nutrient (e.g., nitrogen) removal, shoreline stabilization and protection, and shell-related carbon sequestration.

Key findings

• Habitat suitability and current status: Using presence- only data (from GBIF and iNaturalist) and a MaxEnt machine- learning model with environmental variables (water temperature, salinity, light, nutrients, oxygenation, etc.), they mapped potential oyster reef habitat at ~9.2 km resolution. Sites scoring ≥65% suitability were classed as suitable. In the 10 hotspot countries (USA, Australia, Chile, China, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, France, Germany, and Italy), roughly 295,000 km² (~6% of their coastal zones; ~114,000 square miles in some reports) are suitable. Reefs currently occupy only ~10% of this area, and only ~23% of suitable habitat overlaps marine protected areas. Globally, an estimated 85% of oyster reefs have been lost over the past century due to overexploitation, pollution, habitat modification, and climate pressures.

Hotspots and morphology: Highest ecopotential is concentrated in the 10 countries above. About 72% of reefs occur in estuaries, 21% in lagoons and inlets, and 7% in river deltas. Dominant global drivers of suitability and GEP are seabed light availability and minimum primary productivity (linked to phytoplankton biomass).

Potential services if fully restored:

• Water filtration on a massive scale (e.g., ~77.58 quadrillion liters/year in the US, ~69.92 in Australia, ~46.58 in Chile).
• Up to ~12.3 million metric tons of carbon sequestered per year.
• In the US alone, nitrogen removal, carbon sequestration and water purification valued at ~$25.1 billion/year (other reports cite >$25 billion GEP for the US).

Restoration needs: ~90% of suitable sites would require restoration; ~80% need protection and conservation. Current conditions are described as “very suboptimal”, but the opportunity is large.

Caveats and climate context

These are scenario- based estimates derived from global averages and models; actual outcomes depend on local conditions, population dynamics, and climate change.

Global warming is generally expected to reduce habitat quality and thus overall GEP from the $12 trillion potential, though some regions (e.g., Australia, parts of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, France) could see expansion under more favorable conditions.

Adjacent blue- carbon benefits (support for seagrass, mangroves, salt marshes via clearer water, sediment retention, etc.) are discussed conceptually but not fully quantified in the carbon valuation.

The work introduces “ecopotential” GEP as a systematic index linking ecological fitness (habitat suitability) to socio- economic value, aiming to guide prioritization of conservation, restoration, and nature- positive design under frameworks like UN SDG 14 (“Life below water”). Digital layers identifying high- GEP habitats are provided to support decision- making.

In short, the study frames well- managed oyster reefs as a high- return natural infrastructure asset for water quality, coastal resilience, biodiversity, fisheries support, and climate- related services- provided large- scale restoration and protection occur.

The 10 hotspot nations (US, Australia, Chile, China, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, France, Germany, and Italy) account for the bulk of the study’s estimated ~$12 trillion annual gross ecosystem product (GEP, or “ecopotential”) from fully restored oyster reefs.

These countries hold the highest combined habitat suitability (HS ≥ 0.65) and restoration opportunity. Across them, high- suitability area totals about 295,000- 295,691 km² (roughly 6% of their delineated coastal zones). Current known reefs occupy only ~10% of suitable habitat overall, and only ~23% of high-HS area overlaps marine protected areas. About 90% of suitable sites would need restoration and ~80% active protection.

The GEP combines potential oyster trade and export value with standardized monetary scenarios for shell-carbon, water filtration and purification, and nutrient (nitrogen) removal. It is a theoretical maximum under full restoration and does not subtract restoration costs.

Global warming is projected to reduce overall GEP, though some of these countries (notably Australia, South Korea, Japan, and France) could see local expansion under changing conditions.

Key quantitative comparisons (standardized scenarios)

Data are most complete for the top three by physical capacity (US, Australia, Chile). Other countries rank lower on area-scaled physical metrics but vary sharply on trade-value assumptions.

Water filtration capacity (daily, area- scaled under common individual filtration rate of ~189 L/day; not measured real- world clearance):

• United States: 77.58 quadrillion liters
• Australia: 69.92 quadrillion liters
• Chile: 46.58 quadrillion liters

Shell- carbon component (standing stock under common density/weight assumptions; not annual net sequestration, verified credits, or atmospheric CO₂ removal):

• United States: 4.92 million metric tonnes C
• Australia: 4.43 million metric tonnes C
• Chile: 2.95 million metric tonnes C
  Overall across hotspots, reefs could sequester up to ~12.3 million metric tonnes of carbon per year in related scenarios.

Illustrative ecosystem service monetary values (US example; nitrogen removal, shell- carbon scenario and water purification):

• United States: ~$25.1 billion/year combined (approx. $13.8 billion nitrogen removal, $8.8 billion water purification, $2.5 billion shell-carbon scenario). The US and Australia show the largest area-scaled values for these service components.

Potential oyster export and trade value (illustrative gross figures based on country- specific $/kg and assumed production from high- HS area; highly sensitive to price assumptions and not automatically additive to the ecosystem- service scenarios):

Country	$$/kg export	Illustrative export value ($$)
Chile	227.50	~6.35 trillion
Argentina	115.67	~2.74 trillion
USA	59.00	~1.31 trillion
Germany	14.45	~602 billion
Australia	14.37	~282 billion
China	11.30	~228 billion
Japan	10.90	~103 billion
France	8.76	~93 billion
South Korea	8.23	~62 billion
Italy	6.08	~10 billion

Chile and Argentina dominate this trade-value ranking due to high assumed unit prices; the US ranks third. Italy is lowest.

Broader ranking and context

• Highest overall physical and area- scaled potential: United States and Australia (largest filtration and carbon components), followed by Chile.
• Highest trade- value potential: Chile, then Argentina, then the US.
• Remaining countries (China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, Italy): Significant high- HS area and restoration opportunity, but lower area- scaled filtration and carbon figures and lower unit export prices in the scenarios. They still contribute meaningfully to the aggregate $12 trillion GEP.
• Dominant drivers of habitat suitability and GEP globally: seabed light availability and minimum primary productivity (phytoplankton biomass). Reefs are mostly associated with estuaries (~72%), lagoons/inlets (~21%), and river deltas (~7%).

Caveats: These are model- based screening estimates using MaxEnt habitat suitability, global averages, and standardized parameters. Realized benefits depend on local biology, water quality, successful restoration, protection from human pressures, and climate trends. The figures represent potential under ideal management, not current realized value. The study emphasizes interconnected conservation, restoration, pollution management, and education to unlock this potential.

In short, the US and Australia lead on filtration and carbon- related services, Chile (and Argentina) lead on high-value trade scenarios, and the full set of 10 countries drives the headline $12 trillion figure when services and trade potential are combined under full restoration.

The gross ecosystem product of oyster reefs

This is the full open- access research article:

“The gross ecosystem product of oyster reefs” by Yuhan Wu and Matteo Convertino (Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School), published 7 October 2026 in Frontiers in Marine Science. 

Core contribution

The authors introduce gross ecopotential (also called Gross Ecosystem Product, or GEP) as a systemic index that combines:

• Ecological habitat suitability (HS) for oyster reefs, and
• Socio- economic valuation of ecosystem services.

They treat oyster reefs as critical interfacial (ecotone) habitats that support biodiversity, water filtration, shoreline stabilization, and (conceptually) adjacent blue- carbon systems such as seagrass, mangroves, and salt marshes.

Methods (high level)

• Occurrence data: ~10,442 presence- only records of the family Ostreidae from GBIF and iNaturalist (not verified reef footprints or species- specific).
• Habitat suitability modeling: MaxEnt (AUC ≈ 0.90) using nine benthic Bio- ORACLE v2 predictors at ~9.2 km resolution, clipped to a 45 km coastal buffer.
• High- suitability threshold: HS ≥ 0.65 (rounded lower boundary of the highest Jenks natural- breaks class).
• Service quantification (standardized global scenario parameters):
  • Assumed density ≈ 12 oysters m⁻².
  • Shell carbon component (not a full net carbon budget).
  • Water filtration capacity.
  • Nutrient (nitrogen) removal.
  • Potential oyster trade value (using country-specific export prices, with a conservative adjustment).
• Adjacent blue- carbon benefits are discussed conceptually but excluded from the numerical carbon valuation.

Dominant global predictors of suitability were seabed light availability (>40% contribution) and minimum primary productivity.

Key results

• Hotspot countries (highest HS and restoration opportunity): USA, Australia, Chile, China, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, France, Germany, and Italy.
• High- HS area in these 10 countries: 295,691 km² (~6% of their coastal zones).
• Only ~10% of this high- HS area currently coincides with occurrence records; ~23% overlaps evaluated marine and coastal protected areas (leaving the large majority unprotected).
• Geomorphic distribution: ~72% estuaries, ~21% lagoons, inlets and bays, ~7% river deltas.
• Scaled physical indicators (under the common scenario):
  • Shell- carbon component largest in USA (~4.92 Mt C), Australia (~4.43 Mt C), Chile (~2.95 Mt C).
  • Daily filtration capacity: USA 77.58 quadrillion L, Australia 69.92, Chile 46.58.
• Illustrative trade- value scenarios (static standing-biomass price, not annual revenue) reach into the trillions for some countries (e.g., Chile ~US$6.35 trillion, Argentina ~US$2.74 trillion, USA ~US$1.31 trillion in the published table).
• Combined ecosystem- service scenarios (nitrogen removal, shell-carbon, water purification) are reported separately by country; the USA shows the largest area- scaled values among the service components (e.g., nitrogen removal ~US$13.8 billion in the scenario framework).

The widely reported ~$12 trillion annual GEP figure for fully restored reefs in the top- 10 hotspots originate from the accompanying press materials summarizing the overall potential under the authors’ multicriteria valuation framework.

Limitations emphasized by the authors

• Presence- only, family- level data with uneven sampling; high- HS cells without records are candidates for survey, not confirmed absences or guaranteed restoration sites.
• Standardized global parameters (density, filtration rate, carbon fraction, prices) enable cross- country comparison but are not local biological constants.
• Stock- based (trade and shell carbon) and flow- based (nitrogen removal) values have different temporal boundaries and should not be naively summed.
• Realized benefits depend on local substrate, hydrodynamics, larval supply, disease, governance, costs, and climate change (which is expected to reduce overall habitat quality in many places, though some regions may expand).
• The model is a screening and prioritization tool, not a mechanistic or site- specific restoration prescription.

Bottom line

The paper argues that oyster reefs represent a large, under- realized socio- ecological asset.

Connecting conservation, restoration, and regeneration at scale, guided by habitat- suitability and GEP layers, could deliver substantial benefits for water quality, coastal resilience, biodiversity, and (to a more limited, scenario- dependent extent) carbon- related services.

The authors supply digital eco- information layers to support prioritization and note that the framework is extensible to other biogenic habitats.

Journal information: Frontiers in Marine Science

DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2026.1900813

Provided: Frontiers

 Published: 7 October 2026

Authors: Yuhan Wu, Ecosystem Intelligence and Design Center (TREES), Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School (SIGS), Shenzhen, China

Matteo Convertino, Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School (SIGS), Shenzhen, China

Abstract

Oyster reefs are critical interfacial habitats that underpin coastal and marine bio-diversity, and enhance multiple ecosystem services of blue carbon habitats, including water filtration and shoreline stabilization. However, despite this ecological value, oyster reefs have suffered dramatic global declines. The absence of a systemic economic valuation of oyster reef ecosystem services introduces deep uncertainty in the prioritization of restoration areas, thereby constraining coordinated large-scale transboundary conservation, restoration, eco-engineering efforts, and policy. Here, we novelly introduce and estimate the gross ecopotential, or Gross Ecosystem Product (GEP), as a systemic index of reef ecosystem services grounded in ecological fitness. Fitness is assessed by habitat suitability (HS) at a ∼9.2 km resolution globally. The ecopotential is calculated as a multicriteria socio-ecological value function combining potential oyster trade value with monetary scenarios for the quantified shell-carbon component, water filtration and nutrient removal. Potential effects on adjacent vegetated blue-carbon habitats are discussed as conceptual pathways but are not included in the numerical carbon valuation. We highlight ten hotspot countries – the USA, Australia, Chile, China, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, France, Germany, and Italy – where HS and restoration opportunities are the highest. Seabed light availability and minimum primary productivity, reflecting phytoplankton biomass, emerged as the dominant global drivers of oyster reef HS and GEP. At the reference threshold (HS ≥ 0.65), approximately 23% of predicted high-HS habitat overlaps the evaluated marine and coastal protected-area network, and approximately 10% of high-HS cells in the hotspot analysis coincide with occurrence records. Because the presence-only archive is incomplete and unevenly sampled, high-HS cells without an occurrence record are interpreted as candidates for further survey rather than confirmed oyster absences. Hydrogeomorphic analyses indicate that ecosystem morphology drives GEP through distinct routing of ecological flows: ∼72% of reefs occur in estuaries, 21% in lagoons or inlets, and 7% in river deltas. Our findings highlight the considerable GEP of oyster reefs when conservation, restoration, and regeneration are interconnected actions with systemic and global impact. The proposed GEP approach integrates publicly available socio-ecological and economic data to generate decision-relevant priority insights for restoration planning. Digital Eco-Information layers, identifying existing and potential reef habitats with high GEP, are provided, including their hydrogeomorphic flows and cascading ecosystem services. The model is readily tunable to higher-quality data and broadly extensible to other biogenic species and habitats, providing a scalable baseline for blue-carbon ecosystem management and future scenario development.