Andrew Dessler: The future will be hotter, unless it’s colder.

From Tallbloke’s Talkshop

June 23, 2023 by tallbloke

Andrew Dessler @AndrewDessler Prof of Atmospheric Sciences & climate scientist @ Texas A&M; AGU and AAAS Fellow has been prognosticating on Twitter, talking up a model that predicts another 2C of warming by 2100 (0.25C/decade, twice the rate 2013-2023).

When challenged about this alarming rate of warming, he clarified for us.

Of course, if the central estimate is warming of 0.25C/decade, but cooling is instead a possibility, this means that the upper bound for warming is at least 0.5C/decade. I think this tells us all we need to know about the usefulness of climate models (and the sanity of the modellers).

I asked a question, no reply yet.

En-ROADS climate simulator has just produced a huge update. They now include climate damages in estimates of economic activity that drives emissions.

Baseline temperature increase is now 3.3°C. pic.twitter.com/XE47BKEZ3g

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) June 22, 2023

Why is the possible range not shown on the graph Andrew?

— Rog Tallbloke (Righto/Chief) 🇬🇧 (@RogTallbloke) June 23, 2023