Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
I am planning to go scuba diving this weekend across the bay from Yeppoon, to see how the corals are faring at Great Keppel Island – after the very significant coral bleaching this last summer. I shall be wearing a thicker wetsuit than I was in April, because daily mean temperatures have dropped by about 5C since April and about 10C since January.
I am planning to go scuba diving this weekend across the bay from Yeppoon, to see how the corals are faring at Great Keppel Island – after the very significant coral bleaching this last summer. I shall be wearing a thicker wetsuit than I was in April, because daily mean temperatures have dropped by about 5C since April and about 10C since January. (Remember my series of posts from back then, CLICK HERE.)
This chart was created at, and downloaded from, the AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Science) website, and is copied here with thanks.
Winter days tends to be sunny here, yet still they are relatively cold. (In Yeppoon, most of the rain falls in summer, and the days tend to be cloudier, yet warmer.)
I write this with a smile because of late many sceptics have been promoting the idea that ‘clouds control the climate’ – as explained in the new movie ‘Climate, the Movie’ produced by Martin Durkin starring John Clauser. That clouds ‘control’ the climate is as much nonsense as carbon dioxide controls the climate – or that Greta Thunberg is responsible for the IPCC, that was actually the brainchild of Margaret Thatcher. (For so many of my colleagues to continue to promote this silly movie that begins with Greta Thunberg repeating what she was taught at school, is just plain lazy.)
Clouds are important negative feedback, but they do not create the seasons or even past Ice Ages. Clouds do not control the climate. (And just because a Nobel Laureate says otherwise does not make it true. I could cry, but I am choosing to smile.)
It is getting significantly colder here in Yeppoon, where I am across the bay from Great Keppel Island, that is just about on the Tropic of Capricorn. It is getting cold because the Southern Hemisphere is facing away from the Sun at this time of year, and this inclination way from the Sun has almost reached a maximum – well it will at the end of the week here in Yeppoon, on winter solstice.
A schematic representation of the Earth’s axial tilt, that creates the seasons. Copied from https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14366/ , with thanks.
To be sure, the seasons result from the inclination of the Earth’s axis to the plane of its orbit and the corresponding variation in the amount of solar radiation received will depend on latitude and varies over the year.
The Earth’s atmosphere causes this effect of the seasons to lag somewhat, so it is going to get colder here even as we move back towards the Sun next week, after winter solstice.
The great re-distributor of the ever-changing amount of solar radiation received at particular locations on the surface of the Earth is not the clouds, but rather the wind. The winds transport heat and moisture and drive the ocean currents and are at once the operating mechanism and the working substance of climate.
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I am planning to write more about the wind, and so I have included atmospheric pressure in the chart (top of this blog post) that shows how the air and water temperatures vary with the seasons and also the wind; the bigger the difference between the pressures at particular locations, the faster the air will move from the high to the low pressure and the stronger the wind. This chart was created at, and downloaded from, the AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Science) website, and is copied here with much thanks.
The feature image shows me in the water at Secret Cove, Great Keppel Island in April.
Notice that the global temperature tracks with the seasons of the NH. The reason for this is simple. The NH has twice as much land as the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Oceans have greater heat capacity and thus do not change temperatures as much as land does.
With Winter Solstice due this week (December 21) the shortest NH day of the year demonstrates the sun’s role in seasonal climate change. I am reposting an analysis looking into global warming in relation to our empirical knowledge of solar orbital patterns.
From Previous Post When Is It Warming?
On June 21, 2015 E.M. Smith made an intriguing comment on the occasion of Summer Solstice (NH) and Winter Solstice (SH):
“This is the time when the sun stops the apparent drift in the sky toward one pole, reverses, and heads toward the other. For about 2 more months, temperatures lag this change of trend. That is the total heat storage capacity of the planet. Heat is not stored beyond that point and there can not be any persistent warming as long as winter brings a return to cold.
I’d actually assert that there are only two measurements needed to show the existence or absence of global warming. Highs in the hottest month must get hotter and lows in the coldest month must get warmer. BOTH must happen, and no other months matter as they are just transitional.
I’m also pretty sure that the comparison of dates of peaks between locations could also be interesting. If one hemisphere is having a drift to, say, longer springs while the other is having longer falls, that’s more orbital mechanics than CO2 driven and ought to be reflected in different temperature trends / rates of drift.” Source: Summer Solstice is here at chiefio
Notice that the global temperature tracks with the seasons of the NH. The reason for this is simple. The NH has twice as much land as the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Oceans have greater heat capacity and thus do not change temperatures as much as land does. So every year when there is almost a 4 °C swing in the temperature of the Earth, it follows the seasons of the NH. This is especially interesting because the Earth gets the most energy from the sun in January presently. That is because of the orbit of the Earth. The perihelion is when the Earth is closest to the sun and that currently takes place in January.
Observations and Analysis:
At the time my curiosity was piqued by Chiefio’s comment, so I went looking for data to analyze to test his proposition. As it happens, Berkeley Earth provides data tables for monthly Tmax and Tmin by hemisphere (NH and SH), from land station records. Setting aside any concerns about adjustments or infilling I did the analysis taking the BEST data tables at face value. Since land surface temperatures are more variable than sea surface temps, it seems like a reasonable dataset to analyze for the mentioned patterns. In the analysis below, all years refers to data for the years 1877 through 2013. Tmax Records
NH and SH long-term trends are the same 0.07C/decade, and in both there was cooling before 1979 and above average warming since. However, since 1950 NH warmed more strongly, and mostly prior to 1998, while SH has warmed strongly since 1998. (Trends below are in C/yr.)
Tmax Trends
NH Tmax
SH Tmax
All years
0.007
0.007
1998-2013
0.018
0.030
1979-1998
0.029
0.017
1950-1979
-0.003
-0.003
1950-2013
0.020
0.014
Summer Comparisons:
NH summer months are June, July, August, (6-8) and SH summer is December, January, February (12-2). The trends for each of those months were computed and the annual trends subtracted to show if summer months were warming more than the rest of the year (Trends below are in C/yr.).
Month less Annual
NH Tmax
NH Tmax
NH Tmax
SH Tmax
SH Tmax
SH Tmax
Summer Trends
6
7
8
12
1
2
All years
-0.002
-0.004
-0.004
0.000
0.003
0.002
1998-2013
0.026
0.002
0.006
0.022
0.004
-0.029
1979-1998
0.003
-0.004
-0.003
-0.014
-0.029
0.001
1950-1979
-0.002
-0.002
-0.005
0.004
0.005
-0.005
1950-2013
-0.002
-0.003
-0.002
-0.002
-0.002
-0.002
NH summer months are cooler than average overall and since 1950. Warming does appear since 1998 with a large anomaly in June and also warming in August. SH shows no strong pattern of Tmax warming in summer months. A hot December trend since 1998 is offset by a cold February. Overall SH summers are just above average, and since 1950 have been slightly cooler.
Tmin Records
Both NH and SH show Tmin rising 0.12C/decade, much more strongly warming than Tmax. SH shows average warming persisting throughout the record, slightly higher prior to 1979. NH Tmin is more variable, showing a large jump 1979-1998, a rate of 0.25 C/decade (Trends below are in C/yr.).
Trends
NH Tmin
SH Tmin
All years
0.012
0.012
1998-2013
0.010
0.010
1979-1998
0.025
0.011
1950-1979
0.006
0.014
1950-2013
0.022
0.014
Winter Comparisons:
SH winter months are June, July, August, (6-8) and NH winter is December, January, February (12-2). The trends for each of those months were computed and the annual trends subtracted to show if winter months were warming more than the rest of the year (Trends below are in C/yr.).
Month less Annual
NH Tmin
NH Tmin
NH Tmin
SH Tmin
SH Tmin
SH Tmin
Winter Trends
12
1
2
6
7
8
All years
0.007
0.008
0.007
0.005
0.003
0.004
1998-2013
-0.045
-0.035
-0.076
-0.043
-0.024
-0.019
1979-1998
-0.018
-0.005
0.024
0.034
0.008
-0.008
1950-1979
0.008
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.012
0.013
1950-2013
0.001
0.007
0.008
-0.001
-0.002
0.002
NH winter Tmin warming is stronger than SH Tmin trends, but shows quite strong cooling since 1998. An anomalously warm February is the exception in the period 1979-1998. Both NH and SH show higher Tmin warming in winter months, with some irregularities. Most of the SH Tmin warming was before 1979, with strong cooling since 1998. June was anomalously warming in the period 1979 to 1998.
Summary
Tmin did trend higher in winter months but not consistently. Mostly winter Tmin warmed 1950 to 1979, and was much cooler than other months since 1998.
Tmax has not warmed in summer more than in other months, with the exception of two anomalous months since 1998: NH June and SH December.
Conclusion:
I find no convincing pattern of summer Tmax warming carrying over into winter Tmin warming. In other words, summers are not adding warming more than other seasons. There is no support for concerns over summer heat waves increasing as a pattern.
It is interesting to note that the plateau in temperatures since the 1998 El Nino is matched by winter months cooler than average during that period, leading to my discovering the real reason for lack of warming recently.
The Real Reason for the Pause in Global Warming?
These data suggest warming trends are coming from less cold overnight temperatures as measured at land weather stations. Since stations exposed to urban heat sources typically show higher minimums overnight and in winter months, this pattern is likely an artifact of human settlement activity rather than CO2 from fossil fuels.
Thus the Pause (more correctly the Plateau) in global warming is caused by end of the century completion of urbanization around most surface stations. With no additional warming from additional urban heat sources, temperatures have remained flat for more than 15 years.
Note on Data:
I thought about updating this analysis, but discovered that the BEST tables have not been updated since 2018. The sources have also moved, now located here:
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