A Reuters column by energy columnist Ron Bousso (published November 12, 2026) argues that the push for faster global electrification at COP31 is colliding with Europe’s economic and political constraints.
COP31, hosted by Turkiye in Antalya (with Australia leading negotiations), is promoting a flagship voluntary pledge to raise electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035 from around 20% today.
The rationale is that shifting cars, heating, industry and other uses from direct fossil fuels to electricity is essential for cutting emissions, especially with rising demand from AI and other sources. Electrification is only as clean as the underlying power mix, however.
The EU aims to lead as the world’s first “electro- continent.”
In September it outlined plans to nearly double electricity’s share of its final energy use to about 46% by 2040, mainly via heat pumps, EVs, solar and wind.
Officials estimate this could slash the bloc’s fossil- fuel import bill by €260 billion a year by 2040.
Bousso highlights two major headwinds:
- China dependence: China dominates supply chains for solar panels, batteries, EVs, magnets and rare earths (roughly 75% of global EVs and more than 80% of battery cells). It also supplies most of the EU’s imported solar modules and a large share of wind turbines. The EU’s trade deficit with China reached €359.9 billion in 2025 (up more than 20%), driven in part by Chinese EVs that threaten Europe’s auto industry. Brussels has imposed tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese EVs. Faster electrification therefore risks swapping fossil- fuel import dependence for reliance on a major industrial rival. Domestic manufacturing and critical- minerals efforts will take years.
- US- Iran war and energy prices: Now in its ninth month, the conflict has disrupted Gulf oil and gas flows via the Strait of Hormuz, driving European diesel above $200 a barrel and $200 a barrel to multi- year highs. This has reinforced the energy- security case for electrification but also prompted short- term fossil- fuel prioritization. Some countries (Britain, Greece, Romania) have moved to boost domestic fossil production or ease phase- down policies. The EU delayed methane- reporting rules for importers by a year. Since March, governments including Germany, France, Spain and Britain have enacted more than €40 billion in tax cuts and subsidies to cushion energy costs (per Bruegel). Right- wing parties in several countries are campaigning against costly net- zero measures and in favor of fossil fuels.
Bousso concludes that extreme weather has made the climate case urgent, yet the economic and political room to deliver rapid clean electrification is shrinking.
Europe is squeezed between climate risks, trade and industrial competition with China, and immediate energy- security pressures.
The full column appears on Reuters Open Interest (paywalled for many readers) and is mirrored on sites such as BOE Report.
Related coverage notes debates at COP31 over whether the electrification goal should explicitly require clean (low- carbon) electricity versus any electricity, with some EU countries pushing for stronger clean- power language.
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