Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
I have gotten a lot of inquiries about the weather on April 8, the day of the total solar eclipse of the sun over the eastern half of the U.S.
Our operational forecast models reach that far in time and have for a few days. But considering the uncertainty at such a long projection, I have refrained from commenting until now.
The model solutions are starting to settle down and I have increasing confidence that I can provide useful information. So let me do the first of several updates on the weather associated with the event.
The area of totality will extend from Texas to Ohio to northern Maine (see below).
Totality will occur at roughly 1800 UTC (11 AM PDT) for most of the path (earlier to the southwest, later to the northeast). Here in Seattle, only about 20% of the sun will be covered (see below). You would hardly notice this, even if the skies were clear.
The Forecast Situation
Below is the forecast 700-300 hPa (10,000-30,000 ft) relative humidity, a good measure of cloud cover, at 1800 UTC 8 April based on the U.S. GFS model.
Portions of southwest Texas might have a good view, but I worry about viewing conditions over much of the Midwest. Some openings in Ohio and northern Maine.
But at this projection (270 hours), there is still substantial uncertainty. Only when we get within roughly 5 days (120 hr) will confidence be relatively high in the forecast.
To illustrate the uncertainty, let me show you are series of forecasts for the above humidity field for four different forecast projections, but verifying at the same time (1800 UTC 8 April). Specifically, you are viewing an animation of 288, 282, 276, and 270-hour forecasts of sea level pressure (solid lines) and the moisture field.
All have some kind of low-pressure system and a plume of clouds in the middle part of the country and it appears the solutions are converging. But there are significant changes between the forecasts.
For Seattle, the variations are quite large.
An animation of the precipitation forecasts valid for the same eclipse time is shown below. Enough precipitation to get a Midwest eclipse watcher nervous. And not promising for western Washington.
Another approach for such a long-term forecast is to look at the forecasts of ensembles of many forecasts.
Below is the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) prediction of clouds over Dallas/Fort Worth Texas over time. I put a red arrow at the time of the eclipse. Remember: an ensemble forecast shows the results of many different forecasts all valid at a certain time.
10 indicates total cloud cover. The horizontal line shows the median cloud cover for that location and the yellow box around the medium shows the range of 50% of the ensemble forecast members. (remember that the median is in the middle of a distribution of many forecasts, as many above as below).
Lots of clouds and lots of uncertainty at that location.
Anyway, if you are planning to go to the eclipse, don’t expect perfect conditions and be prepared to move, depending on the closer-in forecasts.
In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers.
This map shows the 20-year (2000-2020) “median cloud fraction” in the month of April at approximately 1:30 pm local time as measured from NASA’s Aqua satellite. The path of totality on April 8, 2024, is shown with red lines marking the northern and southern limits and a blue line up the center. Based on this climatological cloud cover map, Mexico and southern Texas offer the best prospects for a clear view of totality. Data courtesy: NASA.
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Overview
In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses. If you missed the 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your particular area then there will be another opportunity in just thirty days from this Friday on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This time the Moon’s dark shadow, about 115 miles wide, will cross Mexico, sweep northeast from Texas to Maine, and then darken the Canadian Maritimes.
Cities inside the totality path for the April 8th, 2024 total solar eclipse (Courtesy GreatAmericanEclipse.com)
Details
The next total solar eclipse visible on US soil will come on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This one will feature a duration of totality up to 4 minutes and 27 seconds which is almost double that of “The Great American Eclipse” of August 21, 2017. It is estimated that the 2017 total solar eclipse was witnessed by around 20 million people from Oregon to South Carolina and the next one is very likely to be viewed by many millions more. The prediction of “many millions more viewers” is quite safe considering the fact that there are 31 million people already living in the totality path which will extend in a southwest-to-northeast fashion from Texas to Maine.
The solar eclipse of April 8, 2024, will be total in a narrow path from Mexico to the Canadian Maritimes and partial to the northwest and southeast. Yellow curves indicate how much of the Sun is covered by the Moon outside the path of totality. The difference between a total solar eclipse and a partial one is literally the difference between night and day, so get yourself into the path of totality if you can. Courtesy GreatAmericanEclipse.com
In the US, totality will begin on April 8th, 2024 at 1:27 (CDT) in Texas and will end in Maine at 3:35 pm (EDT). The narrow path of totality—where the Moon covers the Sun completely, causing a total eclipse – runs through Mexico (from SinaloatoCoahuila), the US (from Texasto Maine), and Canada (from OntariotoNewfoundland). And if you happen to live in southern Illinois or southeastern Missouri then you will be lucky enough to be in the “totality zone” for the second time when including the 2017 celestial event. A partial eclipse will be visible across nearly all of North America, and a sliver of western Europe.
This animated GIF shows the Moon’s shadow arcing across the Pacific, then traversing North America, and ending at sunset not far from Spain. The longest duration will be near Torreon, Mexico at 4 minutes and 27 seconds. The inner black circle, the umbra, is where the shadow is complete — a total eclipse of the Sun. The outer shadow circle, the penumbra, shows the extent of the partial eclipse. The partial eclipse will be slight near the outer circle and deep near the path of totality.
During a total solar eclipse, the Moon blocks the Sun’s bright face — the photosphere — briefly revealing our star’s outer atmosphere: the shimmering corona, or “crown.” The corona is always there, but we usually can’t see it because the photosphere is about a million times brighter and drowns it out. When the Moon covers the Sun’s bright face, the corona is definitely the main attraction, and depending on location, the corona will be visible for up to 4 minutes 28 seconds.
These are the times and durations of the eclipse at several points inside the path of the total solar eclipse.
Made of rarefied gas heated to millions of degrees, with its atoms highly ionized (stripped of electrons), the corona gets sculpted into streamers and loops by the Sun’s powerful magnetic field and shines with a light seen nowhere else. Those who have witnessed it say it is hauntingly beautiful and one of the most awesome sights in all of nature. During those moments of totality, it is safe to look directly at the Sun, even through binoculars or a telescope. But whenever any part of the photosphere is uncovered, it is essential to view the Sun through a safe solar filter, that is, one that meets the transmission requirements of the ISO Spec 12312-2, sometimes labeled as: 12312-2:2015 which is an international safety standard. Such filters are widely available and are not too costly. Looking at the uneclipsed or partially eclipsed Sun through dark sunglasses or any other unapproved filter is a recipe for serious and potentially permanent eye injury (i.e., do not use regular sunglasses).
The moon covers the sun during a total solar eclipse in Piedra del Aguila, Argentina, Monday, Dec. 14, 2020. Credit for photo: AP (Natacha Pisarenko)
At the beginning and end of totality, the thin middle layer of the Sun’s atmosphere, the chromosphere, blazes in an arc of ruby red. The sky darkens to a deep twilight blue, with yellow, orange, and pink sunrise/sunset colors on the horizon in all directions. Bright stars and planets may become visible in the darkened sky and the air temperature will often drop noticeably. The dark sky even tricks nocturnal animals into thinking it’s nighttime and you may hear crickets chirping or see birds returning to their nests.
This map of the U.S. shows the totality path of the 2017 solar eclipse combined with the upcoming event in April 2024. Notice there is a small section of the nation that is lucky enough to experience this kind of celestial event in both cases.
Remember…when it comes to solar eclipses…99% is definitely not the same as 100%…getting inside the path of totality is critical as this is the only place the corona can be seen.
One final note… after 2024, the next total solar eclipse to be visible from the United States will be in 2044.
Anthony and Charles had a spectacular time in 2017 on an expedition to photograph the 2017 eclipse. The feature image at the top of this article was taken by Anthony.
This map shows the 20-year (2000-2020) “median cloud fraction” in the month of April at approximately 1:30 pm local time as measured from NASA’s Aqua satellite. The path of totality on April 8, 2024, is shown with red lines marking the northern and southern limits and a blue line up the center. Based on this climatological cloud cover map, Mexico and southern Texas offer the best prospects for a clear view of totality. Data courtesy: NASA.
Overview
In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers. What was referred to as “The Great American Solar Eclipse” took place on August 21st, 2017 when the moon passed between the sun and earth. Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses. If you missed the 2017 total solar eclipse or it turned out to be cloudy in your particular area then there will be another opportunity in just under a year from now on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This time the Moon’s dark shadow, about 115 miles wide, will cross Mexico, sweep northeast from Texas to Maine, and then darken the Canadian Maritimes.
Cities inside the totality path for the April 8th, 2024 total solar eclipse (Courtesy GreatAmericanEclipse.com)
Details
The next total solar eclipse visible on US soil will come in just a little more than one year from now on Monday, April 8th, 2024. This one will feature a duration of totality up to 4 minutes and 27 seconds which is almost double that of “The Great American Eclipse” of August 21, 2017. It is estimated that the 2017 total solar eclipse was witnessed by around 20 million people from Oregon to South Carolina and the next one is very likely to be viewed by many millions more. The prediction of “many millions more viewers” is quite safe considering the fact that there are 31 million people already living in the totality path which will extend in a southwest-to-northeast fashion from Texas to Maine.
The solar eclipse of April 8, 2024, will be total in a narrow path from Mexico to the Canadian Maritimes and partial to the northwest and southeast. Yellow curves indicate how much of the Sun is covered by the Moon outside the path of totality. The difference between a total solar eclipse and a partial one is literally the difference between night and day, so get yourself into the path of totality if you can. Courtesy GreatAmericanEclipse.com
In the US, totality will begin on April 8th, 2024 at 1:27 (CDT) in Texas and will end in Maine at 3:35 pm (EDT). The narrow path of totality—where the Moon covers the Sun completely, causing a total eclipse – runs through Mexico (from SinaloatoCoahuila), the US (from Texasto Maine), and Canada (from OntariotoNewfoundland). And if you happen to live in southern Illinois or southeastern Missouri then you will be lucky enough to be in the “totality zone” for the second time when including the 2017 celestial event. A partial eclipse will be visible across nearly all of North America, and a sliver of western Europe.
In the US, totality will begin on April 8th, 2024 at 1:27 (CDT) in Texas and will end in Maine at 3:35 pm (EDT). The narrow path of totality—where the Moon covers the Sun completely, causing a total eclipse – runs through Mexico (from SinaloatoCoahuila), the US (from Texasto Maine), and Canada (from OntariotoNewfoundland). And if you happen to live in southern Illinois or southeastern Missouri then you will be lucky enough to be in the “totality zone” for the second time when including the 2017 celestial event. A partial eclipse will be visible across nearly all of North America, and a sliver of western Europe.
This animated GIF shows the Moon’s shadow arcing across the Pacific, then traversing North America, and ending at sunset not far from Spain. The longest duration will be near Torreon, Mexico at 4 minutes and 27 seconds. The inner black circle, the umbra, is where the shadow is complete — a total eclipse of the Sun. The outer shadow circle, the penumbra, shows the extent of the partial eclipse. The partial eclipse will be slight near the outer circle and deep near the path of totality.
During a total solar eclipse, the Moon blocks the Sun’s bright face — the photosphere — briefly revealing our star’s outer atmosphere: the shimmering corona, or “crown.” The corona is always there, but we usually can’t see it because the photosphere is about a million times brighter and drowns it out. When the Moon covers the Sun’s bright face, the corona is definitely the main attraction, and depending on location, the corona will be visible for up to 4 minutes 28 seconds.
These are the times and durations of the eclipse at several points inside the path of the total solar eclipse.
Made of rarefied gas heated to millions of degrees, with its atoms highly ionized (stripped of electrons), the corona gets sculpted into streamers and loops by the Sun’s powerful magnetic field and shines with a light seen nowhere else. Those who have witnessed it say it is hauntingly beautiful and one of the most awesome sights in all of nature. During those moments of totality, it is safe to look directly at the Sun, even through binoculars or a telescope. But whenever any part of the photosphere is uncovered, it is essential to view the Sun through a safe solar filter, that is, one that meets the transmission requirements of the ISO 12312-2 international standard. Such filters are widely available and are not too costly. Looking at the uneclipsed or partially eclipsed Sun through dark sunglasses or any other unapproved filter is a recipe for serious and potentially permanent eye injury.
The moon covers the sun during a total solar eclipse in Piedra del Aguila, Argentina, Monday, Dec. 14, 2020. Credit for photo: AP (Natacha Pisarenko)
At the beginning and end of totality, the thin middle layer of the Sun’s atmosphere, the chromosphere, blazes in an arc of ruby red. The sky darkens to a deep twilight blue, with yellow, orange, and pink sunrise/sunset colors on the horizon in all directions. Bright stars and planets may become visible in the darkened sky and the air temperature will often drop noticeably. The dark sky even tricks nocturnal animals into thinking it’s nighttime and you may hear crickets chirping or see birds returning to their nests.
Remember…when it comes to solar eclipses…99% is definitely not the same as 100%…getting inside the path of totality is critical as this is the only place the corona can be seen.
One final note… after 2024, the next total solar eclipse to be visible from the United States will be in 2044.
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