Tag: Recession

Green New Deal Accelerates Germany’s Economic Decline…Growth Forecast Revised Downward

Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.

From NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin 

Germany’s economy expected to dip into recession as Green policies backfire. 

Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.

Degrowth

Today Blackout News reports that the German socialist/green/liberal government has revised its economic outlook downward once again.

Recall that in 2021 the economy recovered strongly, with GDP growth reaching 2.7%. But at the end of the year, the socialists, greens and liberals took over, pledging to implement a green revolution. Almost immediately the economy slowed to a growth of 1.9% in 2022 and an anemic 0.1% in 2023.

But nothing to worry about, Germany’s economic minister Robert Habeck (Greens) insisted. The malaise was all Russia’s fault, and Germany only needed to stay his green course. The troubles, after all, have little to do with Germany’s skyrocketing energy costs and his green policies. Things will surely improve.

Economic minister Robert Habeck (Greens)

Back to recession

Well, they haven’t. And today, things are getting worse by the minute. According to Blackout News:

Germany’s economic situation has deteriorated drastically this year. Instead of the expected growth, Economics Minister Robert Habeck is now forecasting a decline in economic output. Originally a plus of 0.3 percent was forecast, now a minus of 0.2 percent is being calculated. These new figures reflect the serious situation of the German economy.”

Habeck promises growth – starting next year!

Now, Habeck, who has no financial or economic education at all – see below, wants us to forget 2024 and is promising 1.1% growth for 2025 and a ruddy 1.6% for 2026. Habeck said in a recent interview. “The growth initiative of this federal government is a necessary first step.”

Minister is confident that the German economy will be able to grow more strongly in the coming years if his measures are fully implemented.

Grim future for the Greens

Habeck’s promises haven’t panned out in three years. yet he expects us to believe they will beginning next year. The air is getting very thin for Habeck, his fellow Greens and Socialists. Next year federal elections are taking place and the polls look as grim as the economy.

The liberal arts economist

Economics Minister Robert Habeck studied German language and philosophy and received a Masters Degree in literature and philosophy in 1996. He was awarded doctorate in 2000 and joined the ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS in 2002. Today he is Germany’s Federal Minister for Economics. 

The green economic miracle is a bloodbath for Germany’s economy

The recession in Germany is here. And the mix of negative factors does not promise a rosy outlook.

The recession in Germany is here. And the mix of negative factors does not promise a rosy outlook.

Blackout News reports: Germany is currently in recession and the economic outlook is far from positive. The economic upswing through the green transformation, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had promised, is likely to fail to materialise in 2024 either. The Blackout News has the story.

The Chancellor’s promise falls more into the category of “wishing for success”, because according to the ruling of the Constitutional Court, the state has no money to strengthen the economy in the long term. The government blames the CDU, which had filed a lawsuit against the unconstitutional budget. But with or without subsidies, the ongoing economic downturn continues to pick up speed and there are many reasons for this (financial market world: 09.01.24).

The green transformation is triggering an economic miracle, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last year. Did he really believe that? Now the Greens around Robert Habeck in particular can point out that they want to, but that the evil CDU has torpedoed the green transformation with their lawsuit in Karlsruhe. But regardless of whether or not climate investments are made by government funds, the recession in Germany is rolling in.

Germany in recession: industrial production and new orders in free fall

The data speak for themselves: new orders and industrial production are declining. In November last year, industrial production recorded a frightening 4.8% year-on-year decline. The last time this level was reached was in July 2020, when the corona crisis was at its peak. This is a worrying sign for the German economy.

One of the factors exacerbating this recession is high energy prices. They cause companies to move their business abroad or even temporarily shut down their production facilities. This process is referred to by some as deindustrialization, as it indicates the decline in industrial activity in Germany.

However, the current economic situation in Germany is not due to just one factor. There are a variety of problems that have a negative impact. These include rising inflation, which is weighing on the retail sector, as well as uncertainty and protests due to austerity measures due to the debt brake.

Germany in recession: rail strikes and structural problems weigh on the economy

Another problem driving the recession is the planned rail strikes. These could have a significant impact on rail transport and exacerbate supply chain problems. The costs for German companies could be significant, especially if production is affected due to a shortage of raw materials.

The forecasts for the German economy are not very encouraging. Although the Bundesbank expects growth of 0.4% in 2024, many economists are sceptical. Some are predicting a recession with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 0.3% in 2023. This would set Germany back to 2019 levels and mean a lost half a decade.

There are also structural problems that weigh on the German economy. These include high bureaucracy, high taxes and rising energy costs. These factors lead companies to look for alternatives abroad, where they can find less regulation and more favorable conditions.

Germany’s industry continues to decline: in November, production fell for the third time in a row. Unlike in Switzerland, for example, it is still well below the pre-Corona level.

RECESSION: After two increases in a row, the Ifo business climate fell again in December (86.4 after 87.2). Like the purchasing managers’ indices, it remains in recession territory. Expect a further GDP decline in the winter half of the year and -0.3% in 2024.

Germany is Heading into a Recession Caused by Its Green Energy Policies, as the Country is Labelled the ‘Sick Man of Europe’

Germany’s economy is teetering on the edge of recession, with opposition leaders pointing fingers to the Government’s green energy policies as the culprit.

From The Daily Sceptic

BY RICHARD ELDRED

Germany’s economy is teetering on the edge of recession, with opposition leaders pointing fingers to the Government’s green energy policies as the culprit. The Mail has the story.

Once one of the world’s strongest economies, Germany is now expected to have the worst performing economy of any leading nation in the world, according to stats from the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 

Friedrich Merz, the 67 year-old leader of the Christian Democrats opposition party, claims that this slump is a direct result of the Government’s overly bureaucratised green energy policies, which are being led by the Greens in coalition with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats. 

“Unfortunately, 2023 will be a year of recession,” Mr. Merz told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. 

“If the insane amount of bureaucracy isn’t stopped soon, if energy prices don’t fall quickly, then 2024 won’t be a good year either.”

The populist leader pledged to “lower the tax and levy burden on energy”, “immediately reconnect decommissioned nuclear power plants to the grid”, and “adopt a moratorium on bureaucracy”.

He elaborated, saying: “Not a single new law should trigger additional bureaucracy. That means, for example: We would stop the heating law. In this form, it is not only technologically flawed, but also sets in motion a huge new bureaucracy.”

The pledge came shortly before France’s President Emmanuel Macron openly disagreed with Germany’s current stance on nuclear power, claiming that neglecting the role of nuclear energy in the EU would be a “historic mistake”.

Mr. Merz is currently leading in the polls after his party adopted several anti-immigrant policies. 

Meanwhile, the Government’s ratings have slumped in recent months. Nearly three quarters of Germans, 73%, are unhappy with the current coalition Government, according to an opinion poll published over the weekend. 

The ratings downturn came as new figures revealed that Germany has remained the ‘sick man of Europe’ as its economy stagnated in the second quarter while the country battles an industrial slowdown and stubborn inflation. 

The outlook for the nation long lauded as Europe’s industrial powerhouse is deteriorating, with its economy registering zero growth from April to June compared with the previous quarter, according to data from the federal statics agency Destatis. 

The figures come as a major blow to Germany’s Government, which had boldly doubled its growth forecast for this year after a feared winter energy crunch failed to materialise.

Germany’s stagnating economy – which had fallen into recession earlier this year – is in stark contrast to Brexit Britain’s economy, which continues to see growth. The U.K.’s economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, with June’s sunny weather encouraging Britons to eat out and spend more. …

Marcel Fratzscher, head of the Berlin-based DIW institute, says Germany’s problems are structural.

The country needs a “long-term transformation programme, with an investment drive, a broad (reduction of its bureaucracy) and strengthening of social systems”, he said in an analysis published over the summer.

Several concerns on the economic front are widely shared – uncertainty about energy costs in the medium term, cumbersome regulations, a lack of skilled labour and a slow shift to a digital economy.

And to make matters worse for Germany’s stagnating economy, business chiefs in June warned that the Government’s decision to shut down the last remaining power plants in favour of renewable energy would see critical industries ditch the country amid electricity shortages. 

The head of energy firm RWE said he fears that Germany will face a shortage of electricity that will see prices in the already struggling country soar. …

German energy chiefs have blamed the country’s poor economic outlook on the Government’s green energy ‘disaster’ that has seen the last remaining nuclear power plants shut down. Instead, the focus is now on renewable energy supplies from solar and wind sites.

But the intermittent nature of these green energy sources, which leaves them susceptible to sudden drops during cloudy or windless periods, means Germany’s electricity system remains vulnerable to electricity shortages and price volatility.

Krebber warned that this could have a devastating impact on Germany’s industries that are trying in vain to prop up the country’s flailing economy. …

This is all playing into the hands of Germany’s far-right parties, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD)’s popularity surging in the polls over its criticism of what it calls a costly green agenda.

Worth reading in full.