Britain at risk of electricity rationing before general election

Britain risks electricity rationing by the next general election unless its fleet of ageing gas-fired power stations is urgently upgraded, a new report has warned.

A cartoon-style illustration of a man in a red and gold armored suit, resembling a superhero, standing confidently in a cityscape with a dramatic cloudy background.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

A man in a suit making a surprised expression while holding a lit candle in a dark setting.

The Net Zero lunacy gathers pace:

From the Telegraph:

Headline from The Telegraph: 'Britain at risk of electricity rationing before general election' by Jonathan Leake

Britain risks electricity rationing by the next general election unless its fleet of ageing gas-fired power stations is urgently upgraded, a new report has warned.

More than a dozen of Britain’s gas-fired power stations are so old that they may not last until the end of the decade and key parts required to upgrade them take years to arrive on order, energy consultancy Watt-Logic said.

It called on Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, to face up to the threat amid growing concern over UK power supplies, which still rely largely on gas despite the expansion of renewables.

“Without urgent action to secure dispatchable generation and stabilise the gas network, the UK faces escalating risks of supply shortfalls and widespread system failures well before 2030,” the report warns.

“It will be difficult to meet existing demand without rationing, let alone any additional demand from electrification.”

About a third of the UK’s electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants – but on windless days, this proportion can double.

Kathryn Porter, from Watt-Logic, warned that in five years time – just after the next general election – many of those gas plants could be offline and there are currently no plans to replace them.

She said a third of the fleet had been built in the 1990s and “while most received upgrades in the 2000s, in most cases this did not involve replacing rotors [a key component prone to wear]”.

“This means the anticipated retirement dates are becoming imminent and there is no replacement and minimal upgrade plans in place,” she added.

It means the risk of electricity rationing during the winter months will increase over the next five years – peaking between 2028 and 2031 – because of the loss in energy production.

The loss will be made worse by the planned shutdown of the UK’s ageing nuclear stations. Eight of the 10 remaining reactors face closure before or in 2030.

Full story here. 

We have been warning this would happen for years.

But still NESO and DESNZ continue to bury their heads in the sand and gaslight us:

Responding to the report, a Neso spokesman said: “Great Britain has one of the most secure energy systems in the world… our engineers are confident Britain’s grid will continue to operate safely and securely as more renewables connect to the network in the years ahead.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “The National Energy System Operator,  has been clear the faster we decarbonise, the more secure we are.

“Gas will continue to play a key role in our energy system as we transition to clean, more secure, homegrown energy.

“That’s why we are also delivering the biggest upgrade to Great Britain’s electricity network in decades to deliver clean power by 2030 and beyond.”

Yes, we used to have “one of the most secure energy systems”, but we certainly have not now. As for more renewables making us more secure, NESO know this is untrue.

It was them who warned in their Clean Power 2030 report in 2024 that we would still need our full fleet of gas power stations for many years to come. They know full well that wind and solar power cannot supply all of the power we need day in, day out, even with contributions from nuclear, biomass and imports.

You can triple wind and solar power capacity, but three times nothing is still nothing.

Miliband knows that the real problems will start to kick in after the next election, so he will do his utmost to destroy the country before then, knowing he won’t have to face the consequences.

Miliband’s Bunch of Wallies

I see Mad Miliband has excelled himself this time!

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

I see the idiot Miliband has excelled himself this time!

Merlyn Hyman just happens to have been for three years Non-Executive Director at the failed Bristol Energy company which went tits up during his tenure, as the BBC reported in 2020:

A city leader has apologised for the “Bristol Energy disaster” which cost residents tens of millions of pounds.

The troubled council-run supplier’s residential customer base was sold for £14m – far less than the £36.5m Bristol City Council had invested since 2015.

Labour Deputy Mayor Craig Cheney said it “didn’t achieve the ambitions” the founders had envisaged it making.

But the Conservatives said “no amount of political spin… can hide the true scale of this financial failure”.

Conservative group leader Mark Weston said local taxpayers would “be glad to see the curtain finally fall on this misadventure”.  

“It is just a pity this action was not done much sooner as we had advised the mayor [Marvin Rees] before Bristol Energy was allowed to rack up such huge losses.

“However, I urge people not to be taken in or fooled by these sale figures”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-54092638

The job of a non-exec is primarily oversight, which is the one thing plainly that Hyman failed to carry out. Can’t think of a better man to advise DESNZ on ways to throw away billions more of taxpayer money! After all, he is an expert in it.

Meanwhile Juliet Davenport founded the renewable energy company, Good Energy. She currently sits on the board of the Renewable Energy Association, so we can hardly expect any original thinking from her.

Alastair Phillips-Davies is CEO of SSE and Craig Bennett is the woke CEO of the Wildlife Trusts, which have deserted their original purpose in life and have morphed into yet another shill for climate change. Robert Gross works at the widely discredited Imperial College.

All in all, this bunch of charlatans and clowns will supply Ed Miliband with just the sort of advice he needs to continue his destruction of the country on the altar of stupid Net Zero!

Wholesale Electricity Price Trends

About £16 billion is being added this year to your electricity bills to pay for subsidies to renewable energy. To that we can add another £3 billion to pay for grid balancing needed because of the intermittency of wind and solar.

Graphic showing a plug with a British flag, flames, and a bill depicting high UK electricity prices.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

We looked at long term gas price trends the other day – if you missed it, it is here. Now let’s do the same with electricity:

OFGEM show the raw data, that is frequently used to pretend that wholesale electricity prices, usually based on gas, have risen substantially since pre-Ukraine crisis days:

But as we know, general inflation has also been running high in the last decade:

Line chart illustrating the RPI All Items percentage change over 12 months from January 1987 to July 2025, with notable peaks and fluctuations.
Line graph depicting the RPI All Items Index from January 2015 to July 2025, showing a gradual increase in the index with a base year of 1987 set to 100.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/chaw/mm23

When we strip out the effects of inflation, we get a very similar story to gas price trends- something that would be expected given the close relationship between the two.

Prices in the last year so are running at similar levels to 2017 and 2018. Prices obviously fell sharply during lockdowns before spiking in 2021/22.

A bar graph depicting monthly wholesale electricity prices in pounds per megawatt-hour from January 2015 to June 2025, showing fluctuations and peaks particularly in 2021 and 2022.

In short, wholesale prices are not exceptionally high by historical standards.

In actual monetary terms, retail electricity prices have roughly doubled since 2017 – note the prices in 2022 and 2023 were suppressed by government subsidies:

Bar graph displaying retail electricity prices from 2017 to 2024, with prices indicated in p/kWh and featuring orange bars for each year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/annual-domestic-energy-price-statistics

DESNZ have helpfully though presented the same prices at real 2010 levels, using the GDP (market prices) deflator. Even after stripping out inflation, prices have risen from 12.89 to 21.69p/kWh, a rise of 68% since 2017.

A bar graph displaying retail electricity prices in p/kWh from 2017 to 2024, with prices notably increasing from 2017 and influenced by the Energy Price Guarantee from October 2022.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/annual-domestic-energy-price-statistics

Clearly this increase has not been caused by any changes in wholesale prices. The prices are for domestic users, but presumably follow similar trends for other users.

In overall terms, the increase from 12.89p to 21.69p equates to around £24.6 billion – nearly £1000 for every household.

So, why have retail prices gone up when wholesale prices have not? We don’t have far to look:

A table showing forecast and outturn figures for environmental levies in billion pounds from 2023-24 to 2029-30, including categories like Renewables obligation, Contracts for difference, and Capacity market.

About £16 billion is being added this year to your electricity bills to pay for subsidies to renewable energy. To that we can add another £3 billion to pay for grid balancing needed because of the intermittency of wind and solar.

Ten years ago, renewable subsidies ran at £3 billion a year.

It’s hardly rocket science, is it?

Another £2 Billion Hand Out to Drax

Ed Miliband has extended subsidies for Drax’s tree burners for another four years, to 2031.

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From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Ed Miliband has extended subsidies for Drax’s tree burners for another four years, to 2031.

The report in the Telegraph is little more than a puff piece for Drax and DESNZ. In particular, they refer to an analysis by Baringa, which claims the agreement will result in savings of up to £3.1bn over the four years. What Drax called “independent analysis” was actually commissioned by them, for the purpose of lobbying the government. And you certainly can’t expect your bills to come down by that amount.

The Telegraph failed to give its readers the actual details of the new agreement, which is readily available on the government website here. The existing ROC subsidies, covering 1.9 GW of capacity expire in 2027, hence the need for a new deal. The current CfD contract for Unit 1, another 0.6 GW, does not run out until 2031, but will be rolled up into the new CfD agreement, along with the other units.

The new strike price will be £113/MWh at 2012 prices, equivalent to £158/MWh at current prices:

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2025-02-10/hcws424

In comparison, the existing CfD is priced at £138.16/MWh, so clearly the new deal will increase subsidies.

Furthermore, the ROC units receive a subsidy of £65/MWh. In other words, the new price of £158/MWh will leave Drax better off, as long as market wholesale prices don’t go above £93/MWh, well above its price for most of last year.

So clearly Drax will receive higher subsidies per unit of generation. DESNZ do point out that only 27% of Drax’s output will be eligible for the new strike price, but it is questionable whether Drax would have got much above 27% anyway, given the increase in wind and solar power planned.

Moreover that output from Drax, approximately 6 TWh a year, could be supplied much more cheaply by gas power. The subsidy heading Drax’s way will probably top £2 billion over the period.

The whole affair, of course, shows how desperate Miliband is. He knows we are already close to blackouts and that his crazy policies will soon make things worse. As a consequence, he is now prepared to chuck away £2 billion of our money to subsidise the burning of yet more virgin forest in North America.

This Telegraph reader summed it up nicely:

AEP’s Latest Renewable Fantasy

If green energy is the future, as he claims, then obviously there is no need for renewable subsidies, mandates, bans or all of the other laws and regulations being applied to enforce Net Zero

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is off on one of his rants against fossil fuels yet again.

In his latest Telegraph article, “Right-wing wokeism can’t stop green tech winning the global energy war”, he reprises exactly the same arguments he has been using for years:

  • CAPEX is pouring into renewables, because they are profitable
  • Renewable energy is cheaper
  • Solar power is going to take over the world
  • Battery storage is coming down in price
  • The world is being weaned off fossil fuels
  • China is leading the way on renewables

If green energy is the future, as he claims, then obviously there is no need for renewable subsidies, mandates, bans or all of the other laws and regulations being applied to enforce Net Zero

And simply comparing unit costs of solar power with fossil fuels is not something any competent economist would do. As we know, that does not address the indirect costs associated with wind and solar power.

That is why even DESNZ admit that the UK will need to maintain a full working fleet of gas power stations at immense cost, for use when the wind does not blow.

AEP also still does not seem to understand that solar power in the UK and other northern latitude countries is virtually worthless in winter. It would cost trillions to provide battery storage to store enough electricity to cover for this. That leaves us with wind power, which is also highly intermittent and costs more than gas power.

The world is not galloping towards a green future, as AEP imagines, wind and solar still only accounted for a paltry 6% of the world’s energy in 2023:

BP Energy Review

He uses the example of Pakistan, which he pretends is moving fast to solar power. It is not – solar energy only made up 0.3% of the mix in 2023, while fossil fuels contributed 81.9%:

BP Energy Review

As for China leading the world on renewables, suffice it to say wind and solar only accounted for 8.0% of their energy in 2023, well below the UK figure of 12.9%.

He still does not get the fact that the world cannot run on intermittent renewable alone, no matter how cheap they might appear on future. The rest of the world worked this out a long time ago. It is only dinosaurs like AEP and Miliband who are still living in the world of twenty years ago, when Big Government thought it could dictate how the world ran.

I have great difficulty understanding why the Telegraph keep paying for AEP to write this drivel week after week.

Pylons to be forced on public to hit net zero goal

Hundreds of miles of overhead cables and pylons are expected to be fast-tracked through the planning system despite local opposition, so Britain can meet its net zero targets.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

Increasingly the public are simply being left out of the loop of decision making as far as Net Zero is concerned:

Hundreds of miles of overhead cables and pylons are expected to be fast-tracked through the planning system despite local opposition, so Britain can meet its net zero targets.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) is devising sweeping planning reforms that industry leaders say are needed for the UK to hit milestones such as eliminating fossil fuel generation by 2035.

Ministers are increasingly concerned the growing demand for energy could outpace the capacity of the national grid, as households switch to electric cars and heat pumps while there is also a massive national expansion in wind power.

John Pettigrew, the chief executive of National Grid, told TheTelegraph it would be “incredibly challenging” to expand the existing network to meet the Government’s targets without major planning reforms.

Currently, the UK generates up to 14GW of energy from offshore wind farms. The Government’s net zero plan includes raising that capacity to 50GW by 2030.

Mr Pettigrew said: “Without planning reform, if you’re trying to get to 50GW by 2030, that’s going to be difficult … You have to see a shortening of the planning process.”

He added that by 2035, when the sale of petrol and diesel cars will be outlawed in favour of electric alternatives, the grid “is going to need to meet a demand that is 50 per cent higher than it is today”.

DESNZ, run by Grant Shapps, the Energy Security Secretary, is said to be supportive of detailed plans submitted by National Grid for radical planning reform. It would be designed to allow construction of additional overhead cables and pylons in as little as half of the current seven-year period that usually elapses before such projects receive formal consent.

However, the proposals advocated by DESNZ are facing resistance in the housing and environment departments, where officials fear a public backlash to a significant loosening of planning restrictions for energy projects.

Under the plans, ministers would issue formal guidelines – known as a National Policy Statement – later this year, effectively mandating planning inspectors to approve projects needed to help the UK to meet its targets.

This would be followed by a separate document setting out specific schemes, including electricity transmission cables, pylons and wind farms, that form part of the Government’s net zero plans – in order to put the “full weight of planning law” behind each of the specific proposals.

Ministers would also slash the seven-year planning process to build new transmission cables and pylons.

The final 18 months of that period is the Development Consent Order process, when the Planning Inspectorate decides whether to approve the project.

“Three to six months could be shaved off that,” said Mr Pettigrew.

John Armitt, the chairman of the National Infrastructure Commission, which advises the Government, suggested plans would always draw some local opposition.

But he added: “You can’t really accept that those local concerns are going to prevent the major transitions that this country has got to make over the next 20 years in dealing with net zero, dealing with climate change, and fundamentally in terms of the transmission lines, electrifying our country in a way that it’s not relied on electricity to such a large degree in the past.”

Mr Pettigrew added: “The more clarity you have in the policy and the easier it is for the inspector to then make a decision.”

He added that currently, “if there are local communities that feel that the balance hasn’t been structured correctly between where it’s landing and how it impacts their community, then they can take a secretary of state to judicial review”.

But he said: “That in itself can be a two-year process. More clarity around the need case, more clarity around the urgency and that it supports [government] policy, and you are minimising the likelihood of that legal challenge.”

National Grid has told the Government that an initial draft National Policy Statement failed to adequately set out the “pace and urgency” required. It submitted a formal response to a consultation on the document, which closed a week ago.

Mr Pettigrew said: “What that statement needs to do is be absolutely clear about the need and the pace and urgency of the energy-related infrastructure that is needed, to recognise the critical urgency of extending the networks to support net zero.

“By doing that, then, if the Planning Inspectorate follows that policy, then there’s less ambiguity and therefore less likelihood that it will be legally challenged, which quite often happens in these processes.”

National Grid has proposed that the Government wins support from local communities with incentives such as lower energy bills for those living near new energy infrastructure.

Barney Wharton, director of Future Electricity Systems at Renewable UK, the renewables industry body, said: “I think there needs to be a kind of a national debate about what infrastructure we need and where and how we build it. Because it is a fundamental change in the way we design our power system.

“And there are going to be areas of the country, as we’re seeing in East Anglia, where you haven’t had electrical infrastructure before and now you’re going have a lot more – and that’s a change.”

Maps drawn up by National Grid show hundreds of miles of new pylons and overhead cables which it says need to be completed by 2030, including a 112-mile power line between Norwich and Tilbury to connect two wind farms off the Suffolk coast.

The project, which runs through Therese Coffey’s Suffolk Coastal constituency, already has significant opposition in East Anglia.

Last week, National Grid published plans for 55 miles of new power lines between North Humber and High Marnham, in Nottinghamshire.

Bottlenecks in transmitting power from Scotland to England are expected to increase to as much as £2.5 billion by the mid-2020s, as National Grid is forced to pay wind farms to switch off and buy more gas-generated power.

The net zero department is expected to publish a “connections action plan” in the summer and a review is currently examining ways to halve “delivery times” for grid infrastructure, such as overhead cables and pylons.

A spokesman for the department said: “Since 2010, we have increased the amount of renewable energy capacity connected to the grid by 500 per cent – the second highest amount connected in Europe.   

“We want to go further as part of our plans to power up Britain with cleaner, cheaper and more secure homegrown energy.

“That is why we’re working to cut the time it takes to connect projects, building upon work already under way by network operators and Ofgem.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/01/pylons-forced-on-public-net-zero-goal-environment/

And then of course is the cost of all this!