Germany Faces Up to 35 GW Secure Power Capacity Gap by 2035 as Low Gas Stocks and €6.4 Trillion Transition Costs Mount

Germany faces a projected need for significant additional dispatchable (“secured” or controllable) power plant capacity by 2035, alongside currently low gas storage levels heading into winter and large investment requirements for the energy transition.

These points align with official assessments and recent reporting.

Controllable capacity shortfall

The Bundesnetzagentur’s security- of- supply monitoring (published around September 2025, with ongoing discussion into 2026) projects that Germany will need up to 22.4 GW of additional controllable capacity by 2035 in a target scenario in which renewables expansion, grid build- out, and demand flexibility proceed on track. In a delayed- transition scenario (slower renewables growth, limited demand flexibility), the figure rises to up to 35.5 GW.

These are gross additional amounts of dispatchable capacity (e.g., gas- fired plants, storage, or other flexible sources) needed to cover periods of low wind and solar output (“Dunkelflaute”), after accounting for plant retirements (including coal phase- out). Net needs are lower in some presentations (roughly 12.5- 25.6 GW in certain net calculations).

The agency has stated that supply can remain secure if this capacity is built, and it supports the federal government’s planned power-plant strategy and capacity mechanism. The government has targeted new gas (hydrogen- ready) capacity on the order of around 10- 20 GW in the nearer term, with auctions planned.⁠

Current installed capacity includes substantial renewables (roughly 186 GW of the ~274 GW total net rated capacity in recent data), but intermittent sources have low-capacity credit during prolonged low- output periods, so firm backup remains essential as coal exits.

Gas storage and winter outlook

German gas storage levels have been notably low, around 60- 61% full in mid-to- late October 2026, well below year- earlier levels (e.g., ~75%). Official targets (such as high fill rates by 1 November) have been viewed as difficult or unattainable in some assessments.

The Bundesnetzagentur has described the situation as serious but has not seen an acute supply risk so far, attributing low injections partly to market and trading strategies; LNG terminals have spare capacity, and additional winter supply contracts have been secured (costing hundreds of millions of euros).⁠

New or evolving EU rules (including methane emission requirements for imports) have added complexity and potential costs or delays for some suppliers; the European Commission has discussed timelines.

Plans are advancing for a strategic national gas reserve (around 24 TWh) that would replace or supplement mandatory storage fill targets after March 2027, intended as crisis backup rather than routine seasonal storage.

Investment needs for the energy transition

A KfW study (based on Prognos calculations, released around mid- October 2026) estimates that reaching climate neutrality by 2045 requires total investments of roughly 5.7- 6.4 trillion euros (commonly rounded to ~6 trillion), or about 290 billion euros per year on average from 2025- 2045. Transport accounts for the largest share (~45%), followed by energy (~25%), buildings (~22%), and industry (~8%).⁠

Much of this replaces investments that would have been needed anyway in a fossil- based path; the additional and net climate- related investment is substantially lower (estimates in the range of ~65 billion euros per year or higher depending on accounting).

Private actors (businesses and households) would bear the large majority; the public sector share is around 12%. The energy sector alone involves major spending on renewables, grids, and related infrastructure.

In short, the capacity gap figures come directly from the network regulator’s scenario analysis and highlight the need for firm backup alongside renewables growth.

Low storage is a current seasonal concern that authorities are monitoring and mitigating without declaring an emergency, while the multi- trillion- euro investment path reflects the scale of the long- term transformation. Outcomes will depend heavily on the pace of new plant construction, flexibility measures, renewables and grid expansion, and external factors such as weather and import conditions.

Germany’s Gas Storage Lags Far Behind Europe, Entering Winter at Just 61% Full