A peer- reviewed paper published in Nature on 19 August 2026 (led by researchers including Yunhe Wang from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, with international collaborators) reports that the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained approximately 695 billion tonnes (Gt) of mass over a roughly 22-month period spanning 2021- 2023. This was the largest mass gain of comparable length in the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry record, which began in 2002/2003.

The gain was concentrated in East Antarctica, especially Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land (roughly 470 Gt, or ~68% of the total). It resulted from exceptionally heavy snowfall, driven by anomalous moisture transport (including atmospheric rivers) from the mid- latitude Indian Ocean.

Sustained warming of about 0.5°C in the tropical warm pool (western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans) altered atmospheric circulation via Rossby wave trains. This created pressure patterns that funneled more moisture southward. The event was largely natural variability (anthropogenic climate change explained only ~9% of the snowfall anomaly).

Between 2003 and 2024, Antarctica lost ice at an average rate of ~140.5 Gt per year.

West Antarctica continued losing mass during the gain period (due to ocean- driven melting of ice shelves and accelerated glacier flow). The 2021- 2023 episode temporarily offset losses and even produced a near-zero or slightly positive overall balance for parts of 2021- 2024 in some analyses, but it does not reverse the multi- decade decline.

Earlier related work had already noted strong mass gains in 2021- 2022 (on the order of ~130 Gt/year) from anomalous precipitation; the 2026 study extended and attributed the larger multi- year signal.

Subsequent data (into 2024- 2025) indicate the anomalous accumulation period has largely ended, with mass balance turning negative again in more recent years.

In short, the headline figure is correct and reflects a real, well- documented temporary anomaly driven by tropical– polar teleconnections and heavy snowfall, not a reversal of Antarctica’s overall ice- loss trend under ongoing climate warming.

GRACE and GRACE- FO are a pair of NASA/German satellite missions that measure changes in Earth’s gravity field to track how mass (especially water and ice) moves around the planet.

Quick Overview

Mission	Full Name	Operational Period	Key Feature
GRACE	Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment	March 2002- October 2017	First mission of its kind
GRACE- FO	GRACE Follow- On	May 2018- present	Continues the record and laser instrument

Two identical satellites fly in the same polar orbit, about 220 km (137 miles) apart, one behind the other, at roughly 490 km altitude.

• Areas of higher mass (more ice, water, rock, etc.) pull the lead satellite slightly ahead.
• The trailing satellite is pulled forward a few moments later.
• Extremely precise ranging instruments measure these tiny changes in distance (down to a few micrometers with microwaves, and even nanometers with the laser on GRACE- FO).

By combining these distance measurements with GPS positioning and accelerometer data (to remove non-gravitational forces), scientists produce monthly maps of Earth’s gravity field. Changes in gravity are then converted into mass changes.

These are the primary tools used to measure ice- sheet mass balance.

In the 2026 Nature study we’ve been discussing, GRACE/GRACE- FO data showed:

• Long- term Antarctic mass loss of ~140.5 Gt per year (2003- 2024)
• The record 695 Gt gain between July 2021 and April 2023

They “weigh” the entire ice sheet from space without needing to land on it, capturing both snowfall gains and dynamic ice losses.

Bottom line: GRACE and GRACE- FO act like a planetary scale that continuously tracks where mass is being gained or lost on Earth, especially critical for understanding ice sheets and sea- level rise.

Multiyear tropical warm pool warming drives slowdown in Antarctic mass loss

Between 2021 and 2023 the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained ~695 billion tons of mass, the largest such gain recorded by the GRACE satellites.

The long- term trend (2003- 2024) remains a loss of ~140.5 billion tons per year.

The temporary gain was concentrated in East Antarctica (especially Queen Mary Land- Wilkes Land) and was caused by unusually heavy snowfall.

The driver was sustained warming in the tropical warm pool (western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean). This triggered a Rossby- wave train that created a north- south pressure dipole (low south of Australia, high over East Antarctica), which steered extra moisture from the mid- latitude Indian Ocean onto the continent via atmospheric rivers.

Anthropogenic global- warming effects accounted for only ~9 % of the extra snowfall; the event was mainly natural variability.

Similar multiyear tropical- warm- pool warmings occur roughly once per decade.

The gain did not reverse the overall long- term ice loss, and West Antarctica continued to lose mass.

The authors demonstrate that the gain was driven by a recurrent atmospheric teleconnection from unusually persistent warming in the tropical warm pool (western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean) during 2021- 2023.

This warming excited a poleward-propagating Rossby- wave train that produced a high-pressure anomaly over East Antarctica. The resulting circulation enhanced moisture transport (primarily from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean) and atmospheric- river activity onto Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land, producing the extreme snowfall.

Model experiments and observations show that anthropogenic global- warming effects (poleward storm-track shift and Clausius- Clapeyron moistening) accounted for only ~9 % of the observed precipitation anomaly. Similar multiyear tropical- warm- pool warming events recur roughly once per decade and are distinct from the forced response to greenhouse- gas warming.

Conclusion of the paper: The 2021- 2023 mass gain is therefore probably temporary and does not yet represent a sustained, global- warming- driven moistening of Antarctica. West Antarctic losses continued throughout the period.

The article is a clear, faithful distillation of the scientific paper’s main conclusions and includes a direct quote from first author Yunhe Wang. It does not over- claim that the ice gain signals a reversal of climate-driven ice loss. It was a real, record- breaking but temporary snowfall- driven mass gain linked to tropical ocean conditions.

Title: “Antarctica Gained a Record 695 Billion Tons of Ice in Just Two Years”

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10912-x

Published: Nature volume 656, pages 897- 904, on 19 August 2026 (open access).

Provided: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Authors: Yunhe Wang,
Qinghua Ding,
Xiaofeng Li,
Thomas J. Ballinger,
Yoshihiro Nakayama,
Dániel Topál &
Eric J. Steig 

Abstract

Antarctic mass loss has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise for most of the last few decades, mainly driven by West Antarctica¹. During 2021–2023, however, a sharp increase in surface mass balance over Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica offset West Antarctic loss and slowed the rate of total ice mass loss^2,3. Although this slowdown is consistent with the expected long-term precipitation response to global warming through poleward-shifted storm tracks and Antarctic moistening⁴, our results point to a different mechanism. Here we show that the recent ice mass gain was linked to a recurrent atmospheric teleconnection driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical warm pool, which experienced unusually persistent warming from 2021 to 2023 relative to the previous two decades. On the basis of observations and model experiments, we find that tropical warm pool warming excites a poleward-propagating Rossby-wave train that induces a high-pressure anomaly over East Antarctica, enhancing Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land precipitation and driving the observed mass gain, with moisture primarily sourced from the mid-latitude Indian Ocean. Similar multiyear warming in the tropical warm pool recurs about once per decade in observations and historical simulations, and its influence on precipitation is distinct from the effects of global warming. Therefore, the recent Antarctic Ice Sheet mass gain is probably temporary and does not yet reflect a sustained, global-warming-driven moistening of Antarctica.