This claim holds based on the latest IEA figures and the Oilprice.com article (Charles Kennedy, August 19, 2026).

According to the IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (which the article draws on), coal-fired generation is forecast at 10,974 TWh in 2026—nearly one-third of global electricity production (total around 33,313 TWh).

That makes coal the single largest source by a wide margin:

• Natural gas: ~6,976 TWh
• Hydropower: ~4,536 TWh
• Solar: ~3,289 TWh
• Wind: ~2,898 TWh
• Nuclear: ~2,871 TWh

Coal is expected to generate nearly as much as gas and hydro combined and about 77% more than wind and solar combined.

All renewables collectively (hydro, solar, wind, bioenergy, geothermal and other) are set to overtake coal for the first time in 2026 (renewables ~11,627 TWh).

No individual renewable source comes close to coal, however.

The IEA still projects coal to remain the largest single source through at least 2030, even as its share gradually declines and total renewable output grows faster (roughly 8% plus in 2026).

The IEA had earlier expected a modest decline in coal generation for 2026.

Higher natural-gas prices, linked to disruptions in LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, have made coal more competitive for fuel-switching in parts of Asia and Europe.

The loss of LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz drove up gas prices in Europe and Asia massively.

As a result, coal generation is now expected to rise slightly (~1.4%) in 2026 rather than fall, while gas-fired output stays roughly flat.

China (still generating more than half of the world’s coal power) and India remain the dominant drivers.

Rapid renewable build-out is meeting a large share of new demand growth, but absolute coal output stays very high because overall electricity demand is rising strongly (IEA forecasts ~3.6% global demand growth in 2026).

In short: wind and solar continue their record expansion, and the broader renewable category is overtaking coal this year.

Yet coal’s absolute scale and dispatchable role keep it the clear leader among individual sources for the foreseeable near term.

China is the world’s largest coal consumer, accounting for more than half of global demand (roughly 4.9–5.0 billion tonnes in recent years).

Its coal use shapes global markets. Demand has been roughly flat in 2025 and is expected to be stable-to-slightly higher in 2026, with a likely peak and slow decline later in the decade.

Power Generation (Dominant Driver: ~60–70% of Total Coal Use)

This is by far the largest and most dynamic segment.

• Strong electricity demand growth remains the core structural driver. China’s power demand is growing ~5–5.5% in 2026 (after ~5% in 2025), driven by:
  • Industrial activity and manufacturing (still the biggest slice of demand).
  • Residential and commercial cooling (air conditioning surges during heatwaves; El Niño is amplifying this in 2026).
  • Electrification trends: electric vehicles, data centers/AI, and some process heat.
• Renewables are growing extremely fast (record solar and wind additions), and coal’s share of generation has fallen (below 50% in H1 2026 for the first time). However, absolute coal-fired generation can still rise when demand outpaces clean supply, wind resources are weak, curtailment is high, or hydro underperforms.
• In 2025, coal power generation declined modestly (~1–1.5%) for the first time in a decade because renewables, hydro and nuclear covered nearly all demand growth. In 2026 it is rebounding (estimates of +1.5–3%), partly due to weaker wind conditions, higher curtailment of renewables, and reduced gas-fired generation amid elevated LNG prices linked to Middle East disruptions.
• Coal plants increasingly serve as flexible capacity for peak demand and grid stability rather than pure baseload, supported by new capacity additions (tens of GW still coming online) and long-term power contracts that reserve significant generation for coal.

Industrial Demand (Non-Power: ~30–40%)

Trends here are mixed and partially offsetting:

• Steel (metallurgical/coking coal) — Soft-to-declining. Real estate weakness and slower infrastructure growth have reduced pig iron and crude steel output. Gradual shifts toward electric arc furnaces (scrap-based) also reduce coking coal needs over time.
• Cement and building materials — Clear structural decline. Cement production has been falling for years due to the property market correction and maturing urbanization.
• Coal-to-chemicals — Strong growth and a key offsetting factor. China is expanding coal-to-olefins, coal-to-methanol, fertilizers, and other chemicals. This supports energy security by substituting domestic coal for imported oil and gas feedstocks. It has helped keep overall industrial coal demand relatively stable even as steel and cement weaken.

Other Drivers

• Energy security and policy — Coal is viewed as the most reliable domestic fuel. The ongoing Middle East conflict and LNG supply risks have reinforced this preference. Official policy aims for a coal consumption peak before 2030 under the “dual carbon” goals but prioritizes security and allows new flexible coal capacity. The latest five-year plan for coal emphasizes controlled development rather than rapid phase-down.
• Weather and seasonal factors — Extreme heat or cold, drought (affecting hydro), or poor wind conditions quickly increase coal burn for power and heating.
• Domestic supply dynamics — China produces the vast majority of the coal it consumes. Safety inspections (e.g., in Shanxi) can temporarily tighten supply and affect prices/imports, but overall production capacity remains ample.

Summary Outlook

Driver	Direction (2025–2026)	Relative Importance	Notes
Electricity demand	Strong growth	Very High	Industry + cooling + electrification
Renewables expansion	Very strong	High (offsets coal)	Share falling, but absolute coal can still rise
Coal-to-chemicals	Growing	Medium-High	Key industrial offset
Steel & cement	Declining	Medium	Structural (property market)
Energy security / policy	Supportive of coal	High	Reinforced by geopolitics
Weather	Variable (heat/wind/hydro)	Medium (short-term)	Can swing annual numbers

Rising electricity demand is the primary force keeping Chinese coal demand high.

Rapid renewable growth is reducing coal’s share and limiting absolute growth, but has not yet produced sustained large declines in volume because of the sheer scale of new power needs, intermittency challenges, and the strategic role of coal for reliability and chemicals.

Most analysts expect Chinese coal demand to plateau near current levels and begin a gradual decline later this decade, though the exact timing depends on electricity demand growth, renewable integration success, and industrial restructuring.