BBC AMOC Myth Exploded

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Myth v Fact

The Gulf Stream system of warm ocean currents could collapse as early as 2025, a scientific study has warned.

The end of the system, which drives the Atlantic’s currents and determines western Europe’s weather, would likely lead to lower temperatures and catastrophic climate impacts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-662.9494

Abstract

The potential weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing, suggested by climate models, is at the forefront of scientific debate. A key AMOC component, the Florida Current (FC), has been measured using submarine cables between Florida and the Bahamas at 27°N nearly continuously since 1982. A decrease in the FC strength could be indicative of the AMOC weakening. Here, we reassess motion-induced voltages measured on a submarine cable and reevaluate the overall trend in the inferred FC transport. We find that the cable record beginning in 2000 requires a correction for the secular change in the geomagnetic field. This correction removes a spurious trend in the record, revealing that the FC has remained remarkably stable. The recomputed AMOC estimates at ~26.5°N result in a significantly weaker negative trend than that which is apparent in the AMOC time series obtained with the uncorrected FC transports.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51879-5