Harsh Winters and Floods Plagued 17th-Century Transylvania During the Maunder Minimum

A recent Phys.org article by Paul Arnold (November 2, 2026) covers a study reconstructing the climate of 17th- century Transylvania from historical records, showing it was marked by severe cold and wet extremes during the Little Ice Age.

The Maunder Minimum (roughly 1645– 1715) was a prolonged period of extremely low solar activity, during which sunspots were rare (fewer than 50 observed in some multi- decade stretches, versus tens of thousands in comparable modern intervals). It is classified as a “grand minimum” of the solar cycle.

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A recent Phys.org article by Paul Arnold (November 2, 2026) covers a study reconstructing the climate of 17th- century Transylvania from historical records, showing it was marked by severe cold and wet extremes during the Little Ice Age.

The study, published in PLOS Climate (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000961) and led by Ovidiu Răzvan Gaceu (University of Oradea, Romania) with co-authors including Tudor Caciora, analyzed 937 written accounts from 68 localities.

Sources included chronicles, diaries, town and church records, travelogues, administrative and monastic documents. Researchers categorized explicit weather mentions, indirect indicators (e.g., delayed crop ripening, frozen rivers), and societal impacts (ruined crops, food price spikes). They cross-checked accounts for confirmation by multiple sources and compared them with natural proxies such as cave ice and tree rings to improve reliability.

Key findings

  • Harsh winters: 55 exceptionally severe winters in the century; 36 of them between 1645 and 1700 (during the Maunder Minimum of very low solar activity). From roughly 1645– 1668, most winters were especially cold. Cold weather dominated seasonal reports (about 73%), though there were occasional mild winters and hot summers.
  • Precipitation: Excessively wet conditions (heavy rain, floods, snow, hail) far outnumbered droughts, though droughts still occurred (e.g., in the 1630s).
  • Societal impacts: Climate extremes contributed to poor harvests (many years of failures), high food prices, famines (notably periods like 1601– 1606 and 1648– 1652), and conditions favoring epidemics such as plague (reported in 31 years). These compounded existing stresses from wars and political instability. Specific examples include rivers and lakes freezing solid (e.g., 1645), military campaigns halted by cold and snow, and major floods.

Possible drivers of the regional cooling and wetter conditions include low solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and shifts in atmospheric circulation and wind patterns. The authors note these climatic stresses intensified (but did not solely cause) social crises.

This fits the broader Little Ice Age (roughly 1300– 1850s in Europe), with the late 17th century among its coldest phases, especially winters.

It builds on related work by the same group on 16th- century Transylvanian climate (which showed more heat and drought early on). The reconstruction highlights how historical documents (“society’s archive”) complement natural proxies and illustrate both climate variability and human responses.

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The Maunder Minimum (roughly 1645– 1715) was a prolonged period of extremely low solar activity, during which sunspots were rare (fewer than 50 observed in some multi- decade stretches, versus tens of thousands in comparable modern intervals). It is classified as a “grand minimum” of the solar cycle.

Its cause is internal to the Sun and is not fully understood in detail, but the leading scientific explanation centers on the solar dynamo, the process in the Sun’s convective zone that generates and sustains its large- scale magnetic field.

Key points from solar physics

  • Solar activity (sunspots, flares, etc.) is driven by the dynamo, which normally produces the ~11- year Schwabe cycle (and the underlying ~22- year magnetic Hale cycle).
  • Grand minima like the Maunder Minimum occur when the dynamo enters a special, suppressed mode. Stochastic (random) fluctuations in key processes—especially the generation of the poloidal magnetic field and variations in meridional circulation (large-scale plasma flows), can push the dynamo below a critical threshold. This leads to intermittent, greatly reduced magnetic activity.⁠
  • Observational clues supporting a distinct dynamo state include strong north-south hemispheric asymmetry in the few sunspots that did appear, unusual differential rotation, reduced auroral activity, and evidence from cosmogenic isotopes (such as carbon- 14 in tree rings and beryllium-10). The magnetic cycle appears to have continued at a low level rather than stopping completely.
  • Dynamo models successfully reproduce grand minima when realistic levels of randomness are included, and historical records show the Sun has spent roughly one- sixth of the Holocene in such states.

No external trigger (e.g., a specific planetary alignment or interstellar influence) is required or supported by evidence; the phenomenon arises from the nonlinear, turbulent nature of the solar magnetic engine.

Relation to climate (for context)

The Maunder Minimum roughly overlapped part of the Little Ice Age, and reduced solar irradiance likely contributed modestly to cooler conditions in some regions (especially winters in the Northern Hemisphere).

However, the primary drivers of the broader Little Ice Age cooling are now considered to be volcanic eruptions, with solar changes playing a secondary role. The Little Ice Age began well before the Maunder Minimum.⁠

In short, the Maunder Minimum was caused by a temporary, self- organized suppression of the Sun’s magnetic dynamo due to internal fluctuations. The precise threshold- crossing mechanism remains an active research topic in solar physics.

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Climatic extremes and their social implications in 17th century Transylvania: An historical climate reconstruction

Abstract summary

The study reconstructs climate variability in the Principality of Transylvania during the 17th century (part of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum of very low solar activity) using written historical sources. It focuses on temperature and precipitation anomalies plus related calamities and their societal effects.

Key results:

  • 55 particularly harsh winters in the century; 36 of them occurred during the Maunder Minimum (1645– 1700).
  • Numerous episodes of excessive precipitation (especially in winter), with wet conditions far outweighing droughts.
  • These extremes contributed to poor harvests, famine, high food prices, and the spread of severe epidemics (especially plague), worsening existing social and political stresses.
  • Findings align with natural proxy data (e.g., cave ice, tree rings). Natural drivers such as reduced solar activity and changes in atmospheric circulation are indicated as likely contributors to the colder, wetter conditions, particularly in Maunder Minimum winters.

Study details

  • Data: 937 distinct climate- related testimonies from 68 localities, drawn from chronicles, diaries, official and monastic regists, travellers’ accounts, etc.
  • Methods: Sources coded into categories (direct weather mentions, phenologicaland environmental indicators such as frozen rivers or delayed crops, and socio- economic impacts). Independent dual coding with third- party resolution of discrepancies; cross- validation against natural archives.
  • Context: Builds on the authors’ earlier work on 16th- century Transylvania (which showed more heat and drought early in that century). The 17th century shows a clear shift toward colder and wetter conditions.

The full open- access paper includes maps of source locations, figures on seasonal anomalies, indices of wet and dry conditions, and discussion of how climate extremes interacted with wars, political instability, and disease in the region.

Journal: PLOS Climate

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000961

Published: October 28, 2026

Authors: Ovidiu Răzvan Gaceu, Tudor Caciora (corresponding), Mihai Dudaș, Ștefan Baias, Marius Stupariu, Maria Maxim, Cătălina Mărculeț (primarily University of Oradea, Romania).

Poster Child for Green Energy Becomes Buyer of Emergency Power

The road out of my hometown in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu runs between rows of wind turbines. For most of my life I treated them as scenery, admiring them as a technical marvel.

Danish engineers helped install the state’s first 110 turbines between 1985 and 1992, and the Muppandal cluster in Kanyakumari district grew into India’s largest onshore wind farm at 1.5 gigawatts.

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From The CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

The road out of my hometown in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu runs between rows of wind turbines. For most of my life I treated them as scenery, admiring them as a technical marvel.

Danish engineers helped install the state’s first 110 turbines between 1985 and 1992, and the Muppandal cluster in Kanyakumari district grew into India’s largest onshore wind farm at 1.5 gigawatts. By 2012, wind was delivering up to 35% of the state’s electricity for days at a stretch, a share that industry observers said only Denmark had matched.

In 2017, a friend who ran a factory told me how erratic swings in electricity supply had caused damage and lost orders, wiping out months of profits. He linked the problem to the surging and fading of wind power on the grid. That was a warning. Nine years later, the entire state is experiencing the same grid failures at a far higher cost.

Poster child no more

Few Indian states received as much international praise for its renewable energy as Tamil Nadu. In 2018, the World Economic Forum recognized the state for generating more wind power than Sweden or Denmark, the Scandinavian countries that climate activists hold up as models.

Wind accounted for more than 28% of Tamil Nadu’s installed generating capacity, well ahead of Gujarat’s 19%. Today, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka lead India in wind installations, with Gujarat and Tamil Nadu alone holding nearly half the national total.

Now look at what that reputation buys in October 2026.

Tamil Nadu has signed the costliest power purchase deals in the country to keep the lights on during evening hours. The state confirmed it will buy 1,500 megawatts for six peak hours every day from October 15 to 31, mostly from natural gas plants at a cost of about $527,000 a day. Those emergency rates run six to seven times higher than an existing contract for thermal power and nearly double the rate being paid by a neighboring state.

Where the electricity went

Officials blame a heatwave for the need to buy additional power. Peak demand jumped nearly 30%, driven by El Niño conditions that kept air conditioners and fans running long after the usual summer peak. Central generating stations also cut back on generation to accommodate scheduled maintenance.

But the real culprit is a drop in wind production to about 14% of what contracts had promised. Nobody should be surprised. The wind season in Tamil Nadu ends every year around this time. Solar output drops to zero after sunset, which explains why the shortage is between 6 p.m. and midnight. Hydropower, a weather-bound source that depends on reservoir levels and monsoon inflows, offered no meaningful rescue.

Consider who filled the gap. Every bidder in the emergency tender was a gas-fired generator, some of them in Assam 1,400 miles away. Gas won because it starts and stops on command. The state that spent three decades celebrating wind turbines now pays a premium for the one quality they cannot offer – on-demand dispatchability.

Tamil Nadu is India’s second-largest state economy, with a quarter of its output coming from manufacturing, which requires an affordable, continuous supply of electricity.

This month, in Tiruppur, Tamil Nadu’s fourth-largest city, knitwear factories reported production losses as computerized machines failed under sudden outages and low voltage. They suffered the same damage my friend had described nine years ago. Spinning mills near Madurai were told to switch to diesel generators, whose electricity costs significantly more than the grid’s.

Tamil Nadu’s planners must stop relating to installed wind capacity as if it were a reliable source. A turbine that produces at 14% of its contracted level during peak demand cannot support a power grid for many millions of people. India’s second-largest economy needs an energy supply based on coal, natural gas, and nuclear.

Originally published at The Washignton Times, October 28th, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

New Snow Model Sharpens Forecasts of Northeast Winter Thaws and Flood Risks

A University of Vermont- led team improved a physics- based snow model to better capture Northeast U.S. winter conditions, including midwinter thaws and runoff, which differ from those in the western U.S.

Northeast mountain snowpacks, especially at intermediate elevations, are shaped by a milder, more humid climate.

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A University of Vermont- led team improved a physics- based snow model to better capture Northeast U.S. winter conditions, including midwinter thaws and runoff, which differ from those in the western U.S.

The October 28, 2026, article by Hannah Fischer (UVM Water Resources Institute) covers a study published in Water Resources Research.

Northeast mountain snowpacks, especially at intermediate elevations, are shaped by a milder, more humid climate. They feature frequent melt- freeze cycles, denser snow, and midwinter thaws, often leading to rain- on- snow events and flooding. Standard snow models, largely developed and tested for western conditions, often fail to represent these dynamics accurately near freezing temperatures.

Researchers from UVM, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the University of British Columbia applied and refined a physics- based model (drawing on approaches like SnowModel) focused on Mount Mansfield (Vermont’s highest peak) and the adjacent Ranch Brook watershed (a long- term hydrological monitoring site draining to the Winooski River and Lake Champlain).

Elevations ranged from about 200- 1,300 meters.

Key findings include:

  • The snowpack is highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes, especially at middle elevations (700- 900 m). This band often aligns with the rain- snow line and near- freezing conditions; a shift of roughly +1.1°C can flip precipitation from snow to rain and accelerate melt.
  • The improved model more accurately simulated observed snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, snowpack density, and snowmelt- derived runoff compared with prior approaches.
  • This enables better analysis of how warmer, wetter winters may affect snowpack and hydrology, supporting improved flood forecasting and understanding of vulnerable systems.

Lead author Anna Grunes (UVM M.S. graduate in Civil and Environmental Engineering) noted the work advances understanding of highly vulnerable snowpacks amid rapid winter changes, with Vermont’s Green Mountains serving as a useful natural laboratory.

USGS research hydrologist (emeritus) Jamie Shanley highlighted its value for the region’s tourism- dependent snow season and broader hydrologic insights.

Additional co- authors included UVM faculty (Arne Bomblies, Donna Rizzo, Patrick Clemins, Beverley Wemple) and collaborators from USGS and elsewhere.

The project received support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH).

A smiling person in winter clothing is sitting in a snow pit, working with equipment, including a solar panel and a sensor setup.
Anna Grunes working on a monitoring station atop Mount Mansfield. Credit: Hannah Fischer.

Application of a Physics-Based Snow Model to Assess Impacts of a Changing Climate on Snowpack and Snowmelt in the Northeastern United States

It is the study referenced in the University of Vermont press release (“UVM Researchers Explore the Northeast’s Vulnerable Snowpack” by Hannah Fischer, October 28, 2026).

Lead author is Anna Grunes (M.S. graduate, UVM Civil and Environmental Engineering), with co-authors from UVM, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the University of British Columbia.

The team adapted and evaluated a distributed physics- based snow model (SnowModel) for the Northeast U.S., specifically a domain centered on Mount Mansfield (Vermont’s highest peak) and the Ranch Brook watershed (long-term hydrological monitoring site on the eastern slope that drains to the Winooski River and Lake Champlain). Elevations span roughly 200- 1,300 m.⁠

Northeast snowpacks differ markedly from those in the western U.S.: milder, more humid conditions produce frequent melt– freeze cycles, denser snow, midwinter thaws, and rain- on- snow events.

Standard models often underperform near 0 °C. The improved configuration better reproduces observed snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, density, and melt- derived runoff.

Key technical improvements (drawn from the associated thesis and press summary)

  • Precipitation- phase partitioning: Humidity- aware methods (e.g., wet- bulb temperature) outperformed simple air- temperature thresholds.
  • Liquid- water percolation and retention: Gravity- dominated percolation schemes reduced model error most effectively.
  • Calibration and validation used historical snow surveys plus a newer network of monitoring stations.

Snowpack response is highly elevation- dependent. Middle elevations (≈700- 900 m), near the typical rain– snow transition and freezing level, are especially sensitive.

A modest warming of about +1.1 °C can shift precipitation fully from snow to rain and accelerate melt.

Simulated warmer and wetter conditions increase midwinter melt and runoff pulses while producing an earlier, less pronounced spring freshet. In one example midwinter event, +3.3 °C produced a substantial surface- water- input spike (tens of mm) at mid- elevations where baseline melt was minimal.

The work improves representation of midwinter runoff and supports better flood analysis and forecasting under changing winters. It highlights the vulnerability of intermediate- elevation Northeast snowpacks that are critical for water resources, ecosystems, and winter recreation and tourism.

Funding included the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH).⁠

Full- text access may require institutional login, AGU membership, or purchase through the Wiley Online Library page.

Related open material includes Anna Grunes’s thesis (“Development and Evaluation of a Physics- Based Snow Model to Assess Spatiotemporal Snowpack Variability in Vermont”), which provides additional methodological detail and results that underpin the journal paper.

Journal: Water Resources Research

DOI: 10.1029/2026wr044222

First published: 28 October 2026

Provided: University of Vermont

Authors: Anna Grunes, Graham Sexstone, Arne Bomblies, John Hammond, Kate Hale, Donna M. Rizzo, Patrick J. Clemins, Beverley Wemple

Abstract

In the temperate, humid mountains of the northeastern United States (U.S.), seasonal snowmelt plays an important role in the annual water balance, and midwinter rain-on-snow events and spring snowmelt are common drivers of flooding. Frequent near-freezing winter temperatures make the region particularly susceptible to midwinter rain and ongoing climate warming. However, models used to evaluate seasonal snowpack evolution and inform snowmelt-derived streamflow forecasting remain limited in their ability to represent these conditions. Here, we evaluate northeastern U.S. snowpack under a changing climate using a distributed, physics-based snowpack model. SnowModel was applied to a domain in the state of Vermont, surrounding Mount Mansfield (1,340 m). Testing various model configurations showed that incorporating a wet-bulb temperature threshold (0.5°C) for precipitation phase partitioning and a gravity-driven liquid water percolation scheme most effectively reduced model error. These modifications reduced mean percent bias by 33 and 75 percentage points for snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE), respectively. Using the improved model, we assessed the effects of climate-driven changes through a range of perturbations in temperature and precipitation. Middle elevations (700–900 m) were the most sensitive to these changes, exhibiting up to a 60% decrease in peak SWE with modest warming (+1.1°C). Incremental warming caused increased midwinter melt, including an event in which a +3.3°C temperature increase produced 40 mm of additional snowmelt (+700%) in 1 day at mid-elevations. These findings demonstrate the sensitivity of the northeastern U.S. snowpack to climate warming, and


New Study Debunks Claim That Mid-Latitude Eruptions Cause Extreme Cooling

Explosive volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere. These form sulfate aerosols (tiny droplets) that scatter and reflect incoming sunlight back to space, cooling Earth’s surface for months to years. A classic example is the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption in Indonesia, which contributed to the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816.

Extratropical eruptions (roughly mid- latitudes, 30°- 70°) differ from tropical ones mainly in aerosol distribution, lifetime, cooling efficacy per unit sulfur, frequency, and overall climatic influence.

A graphic illustrating two volcanic eruptions, one on the left and one on the right, with the Earth positioned in the background and text overlaying that reads 'New Study Debunks Claim That Mid-Latitude Eruptions Cause Extreme Cooling'.
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Explosive volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere. These form sulfate aerosols (tiny droplets) that scatter and reflect incoming sunlight back to space, cooling Earth’s surface for months to years. A classic example is the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption in Indonesia, which contributed to the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816.

Dr. Zachary McGraw (Columbia University) and colleagues used a NASA climate model to compare tropical eruptions with extratropical ones (roughly 30°- 70° latitude).

Earlier work had suggested extratropical eruptions produce much stronger Northern Hemisphere cooling, up to about 7.5 times greater for similar sulfur output. The new simulations found only a modest difference at most (up to roughly twice the cooling), with no clear, strong location- based enhancement.

Reasons include:

  • Tropical aerosols are transported into both hemispheres by atmospheric circulation, spreading the reflective cooling more evenly.
  • Extratropical aerosols can stay concentrated in one hemisphere (often the Northern), potentially intensifying local effects, but their overall impact is limited by other factors.
  • Aerosols from extratropical eruptions typically have shorter lifetimes (often up to ~9 months) versus tropical ones (up to ~3 years). This is linked to lower injection heights, removal by precipitation in wetter and cooler mid- latitude conditions, and poleward transport.

When the team compared model results with historical and proxy records (including numerous tropical eruptions after 750 CE), Northern Hemisphere cooling aligned more frequently with tropical eruptions. Extratropical events are rarer and therefore exert less overall influence on Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

In short, the work supports the idea that tropical eruptions play a larger cumulative role in regulating (cooling) Earth’s climate via the “volcanic thermostat” than previously emphasized relative to mid- latitude events. The findings refine understanding of how eruption latitude, season, sulfur amount, and aerosol lifetime shape climatic impacts.

Bar graph comparing the number of tropical eruptions across different datasets: N-TREND, Schneider, LMR Seasonal, and N-scan.
Historical events of cooler-than-normal summers following eruptions in the tropics (top row) and Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes (bottom row). Credit: McGraw et al., 2026.

Extratropical eruptions (roughly mid- latitudes, 30°- 70°) differ from tropical ones mainly in aerosol distribution, lifetime, cooling efficacy per unit sulfur, frequency, and overall climatic influence.

These differences come from the 2026 study by Zachary McGraw and colleagues (summarized in the Phys.org article and detailed in their Geophysical Research Letters paper).

Aerosol distribution and hemispheric effects

  • Sulfate aerosols from extratropical eruptions tend to stay largely confined to the hemisphere of the eruption (often the Northern Hemisphere).
  • Tropical aerosols are transported by stratospheric winds into both hemispheres, spreading the reflective cooling more evenly worldwide.⁠

This confinement can produce some enhanced regional (e.g., Northern Hemisphere extratropical) cooling for extratropical events, but the effect is limited.

Cooling strength

Earlier analyses (including some paleoclimate comparisons) suggested extratropical eruptions could cool the Northern Hemisphere several times more strongly, up to ~7.5 times, than similar- magnitude tropical ones.

Large- ensemble NASA climate model simulations (spanning 5– 40 Tg of stratospheric sulfur, across seasons) found the ratio is consistently only about 1.4- 2 times (typically within a factor of two).

This is explained primarily by the single- hemisphere confinement of aerosols rather than any strongly disproportionate forcing. Paleoclimate evidence (tree rings and historical records) supports similarly modest differences.

Aerosol lifetime

Extratropical aerosols generally have shorter atmospheric lifetimes, often up to ~9 months, versus up to ~3 years for tropical ones.

Contributing factors include:

  • Typically, lower injection heights into the stratosphere.
  • Greater removal by precipitation (rain and snow) in the wetter, cooler mid-latitude climates.
  • Poleward transport of aerosols from mid- latitudes.⁠

Shorter lifetimes limit the duration and cumulative impact of the cooling.

Frequency and cumulative influence

Extratropical eruptions capable of significant stratospheric sulfur injection are comparatively rarer.

As a result, Northern Hemisphere cooling episodes in the historical and proxy record coincide more often with tropical eruptions.

Overall, extratropical events have exerted a smaller cumulative influence on Northern Hemisphere (especially extratropical) temperatures than tropical ones.⁠

In summary, while extratropical eruptions can produce moderately stronger regional cooling due to aerosol confinement, they do not produce the dramatically enhanced effects once claimed, and their shorter lifetimes plus lower frequency mean tropical eruptions play the larger role in Earth’s longer-term volcanic “thermostat.” Effects also depend on exact latitude, season, sulfur mass, and injection height.

No Evidence for Strongly Enhanced Northern Hemisphere Cooling From Extratropical Versus Tropical Eruptions

This open- access research letter directly addresses claims that Northern Hemisphere extratropical (NHET) volcanic eruptions produce several times stronger cooling in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics than tropical eruptions of similar sulfur magnitude.

Key Points

  • Models and tree- ring records show no evidence of greatly enhanced regional cooling from extratropical eruptions versus comparable tropical ones.
  • Extratropical eruptions cool the extratropics no more than is expected from aerosols being confined to one hemisphere.
  • Because large extratropical eruptions are rarer, they have historically caused less overall cooling of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics than tropical eruptions.

Abstract and Main Findings

Prior studies (Toohey et al., 2019; Burke et al., 2023) reported enhancement factors of ~3.2 times or even ~7.5 times for NHET cooling from extratropical versus tropical eruptions.

Using a large ensemble of GISS ModelE2.2 simulations (160 members total) spanning 5- 40 Tg of stratospheric sulfur (VSSI), two seasons (June and December), and locations on the equator versus 64°N, the authors find the extratropical- to- tropical NHET cooling ratio is consistently only 1.4- 1.9 times (within a factor of two).

This matches the physical expectation from aerosol confinement: extratropical aerosols largely remain in one hemisphere, while tropical aerosols spread into both. No additional amplification mechanism is required or supported.

Paleoclimate (tree- ring) evidence yields similarly modest ratios (overall estimates across reconstructions and simulations fall in the 1.4- 2.4 range).

The much larger prior factors are attributed to methodological issues, including reliance on sparse pre- 750 CE data, linear- regression approaches that prove unreliable in synthetic tests, and uncertainties in sulfur and temperature reconstructions for key events (e.g., Laki 1783, 536 CE, Okmok 43 BCE).

Owing to their relative rarity, extratropical eruptions exert a smaller cumulative influence on NHET temperatures than tropical ones. The findings challenge the idea that extratropical eruptions are of outsized importance for Northern Hemisphere climate.

Methods Highlights

  • Prescribed aerosol forcing via a modified Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) framework (adjusted for more realistic shorter lifetimes of summer extratropical aerosols).
  • Interactive ocean and sea ice; NHET temperatures defined as land areas north of 30°N (to match tree-ring coverage).
  • Ensemble approach isolates the forced response from internal variability.
  • The EVA extratropical forcings are shown to be a high estimate of potential cooling relative to interactive aerosol models.

Plain- Language Summary

Volcanic eruptions cool Earth by injecting reflective sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Recent claims that mid- to high-latitude eruptions cool the Northern Hemisphere several times more than tropical ones of similar size are not supported.

Climate- model ensembles and temperature reconstructions show at most roughly twice the cooling, exactly what is expected when aerosols stay mostly in one hemisphere.

Large extratropical eruptions are also rarer, so tropical eruptions have had the greater overall impact even on Northern Hemisphere temperatures.⁠

The paper includes supporting information with eruption lists, additional figures on temperature anomalies, regression reliability tests, and tree- ring comparisons.

Full text and SI are available via the DOI or the Columbia-hosted PDF.

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2026GL122071

First published: 15 October 2026

Authors: Zachary McGraw, Benjamin O. Goldman, Lorenzo M. Polvani

Mount Tambora’s 1815 eruption and the year without a summer
Mount Tambora’s 1815 eruption and the year without a summer – Climate- Science.press

These Ancient Eruptions Were Thousands of Times More Powerful Than Anything Humans Have Ever Witnessed
The Most Powerful Volcanic Eruptions in Earth’s History

On with the show at UN COP31

So here are a few interesting negotiations to look out for. The beginning of the end of COPs might even be on the table. This is not about the formal agenda because tricky issues have a way of springing up. Surprise is a big part of the spectacle.

First, there is the annual issue of MORE MONEY. Mind you, funding commitments are never mentioned, just more ways to get it. This year there are at least two “funding mechanisms” under discussion.

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From CFACT

By David Wojick

COP31 is upon us, and while you may think it is pointless, it is still a spectacle worth watching.

These folks are professional negotiators who could just as easily spend eleven luxury days debating the seating priorities on the first passenger trip to Mars. There is also the enormous global trade show that comes with it.

So here are a few interesting negotiations to look out for. The beginning of the end of COPs might even be on the table. This is not about the formal agenda because tricky issues have a way of springing up. Surprise is a big part of the spectacle.

First, there is the annual issue of MORE MONEY. Mind you, funding commitments are never mentioned, just more ways to get it. This year there are at least two “funding mechanisms” under discussion.

One is called the “Just Transition Mechanism” where the transition is question is the imaginary end of fossil fuel use. The idea is to fund regions, communities, businesses, and people who are hurt by the transition. Unemployed oilfield workers for example, when we stop using oil.

This critter already exists at the EU level having been created around 2021.

The Just Transition Mechanism – European Commission

The issue at COP31 is whether to create a global version of the Just Transition Mechanism.

The second proposed new mechanism is the “Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF),” which is not actually a UN Climate activity. Australia, which just signed a PRF Treaty with Fiji, explains it this way:

“The PRF is the first Pacific-led, owned and managed community resilience financing facility. It will provide grants for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, and projects that respond to loss and damage. It will seize the economic opportunities of clean energy through resilient, community led projects.”

Australia and Fiji ratify Pacific Resilience Facility Treaty | Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs

What the PRF is doing at COP31 is unclear and there is a lot of that going around.

There are a growing number of non-UN climate activities springing up. Each is driven by the correct observation that the COP extravaganzas are going nowhere.

The leading example is the effort to develop fossil fuel transition “roadmaps” for every country. This is explained in my article “The ‘Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels’ project has become a global program.”

The “Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels” project has become a global program

Another rogue activity is designing a new Fossil Fuel Treaty (FFT) mandating the phase out that countries can adopt (possibly using a roadmap). As a treaty, the FFT would be a legally binding instrument enforceable by the courts. The FFT has its own promoting organization here.

Fossil Fuel Treaty

What is most interesting is that such a treaty has the potential to destabilize the UN Climate Change Program. The UN Program is based on an existing treaty, the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The FFT could compete with the FCCC such as for financial resources and even for jurisdiction. The FFT might even make the FCCC obsolete.

Ironically, the Roadmap rogue started with a suggestion by the COP30 president. The COP31 president has made a new suggestion called the “electrification goal.” The core electrification goal for COP31 is the “35 by 35” pledge, which aims to raise electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from roughly 20–23% today to 35% by 2035. This too may become a non-UN activity.

How COP31 will handle these rogue initiatives is the really big show.

How Farming Triggered Two Medieval Tsunamis in an Italian Lake — And Why the Danger Is Back

Farming and land use helped precondition two medieval lake tsunamis at Lake Iseo (northern Italy), and the hazard has returned because the delta has rebuilt.

Human-induced erosion increases sediment delivery to lake deltas, raising their risk of collapse. At Lake Iseo, roughly two millennia of intensified land use (deforestation, agriculture, pastoralism) tripled sediment flux to the lake. This over steepened the Oglio River delta and preconditioned it for failure.

A dramatic landscape featuring a mountainous region with terraced farming, facing an immense tidal wave crashing towards the shores, under a cloudy sky with rays of sunlight piercing through.
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Farming and land use helped precondition two medieval lake tsunamis at Lake Iseo (northern Italy), and the hazard has returned because the delta has rebuilt.

This is based on a 2026 Nature Communications paper (“Human- enhanced tsunami hazard in large lakes”) led by Muhammad Naveed Zafar, with co-authors including Denys Dutykh (who wrote the Phys.org piece summarizing the work). The team combined sediment cores, seismic profiles, historical and archaeological evidence, and numerical modeling of landslides and waves.

Lake Iseo sits at the foot of Val Camonica in the southern Alps. The Oglio River builds a large delta at its northern end. Since Roman times, forest clearing, farming, and grazing in the catchment have tripled sediment delivery to the lake relative to earlier Holocene levels.

This rapidly built up and over steepened the underwater delta front, making it unstable. A prior collapse had already occurred in the 6th century; centuries of accelerated erosion then reloaded it.

The two events

  • 3 January 1117: A magnitude ~6.5 earthquake (near Verona) triggered collapse of ~62 million m³ of sediment. Simulations show waves reaching northern shores in under a minute, with run- ups of ~50 m near the delta and flooding up to ~2.7 km inland along the Oglio plain. Farther south (e.g., at Iseo town), run-up was ~5.5 m after 6- 7 minutes. Monte Isola partly sheltered southern shores. A contemporary Vatican Library manuscript notes lakes rising so high that few nearby villagers escaped.⁠
  • Christmas Day 1222: A magnitude ~6.0 earthquake triggered a smaller collapse (~10 million m³) after the river had partially rebuilt the front. Modeled run- ups reached ~13 m.⁠

The thickest mass- wasting deposits in the deep basin (up to ~250 m depth) match these volumes and locations. Modeling treated the slides as viscoplastic mud and the long waves with shallow-water equations (waves traveled ~50 m/s or ~180 km/h in deep water). Results align with historical accounts, church rebuilds, archaeological damage, and the absence of deposits in sheltered southern areas.

After 1222, land- use pressure eased temporarily (e.g., during the Black Death) but intensified again from the 17th century and peaked in the industrial era. Eight centuries of continued human- driven erosion has rebuilt the delta front. Lake Iseo’s shores are now densely populated. A similar collapse today would reach northern towns (e.g., Pisogne, Lovere) in seconds to under a minute, too fast for effective warning in many places, with more time (minutes) farther south.⁠

Similar human- amplified risks exist elsewhere (e.g., evidence of medieval collapses in Lakes Garda and Como; analogous cases from Lake Geneva to Alaska and New Zealand). Global sediment delivery to lake deltas has risen sharply with modern land use, increasing the potential for future failures.⁠

In short, people did not cause the earthquakes, but centuries of farming and deforestation overloaded the delta, turning seismic shaking into catastrophic underwater landslides and tsunamis. The same process has reset the hazard.

Map of Lake Iseo at the foot of Val Camonica, highlighting its delta, deep basin, and historical seismic events in 1117 and 1222.
Lake Iseo lies at the foot of Val Camonica, in the southern Alps of northern Italy, where the Oglio River enters it from the north and has built a delta. The two stars mark the earthquakes of 1117, of magnitude 6.5, and of 1222, of magnitude about 6. On the map of the lake (right), the darker the water, the deeper the lake, down to 250 meters in the long northern basin; the dark red line outlines the front of the delta that collapsed in 1117, and the orange dashed line the part that collapsed in 1222. Credit: Denys Dutykh; data: Zafar et al. 2026 (Figshare, CC BY 4.0), Terrain Tiles (AWS Open Data), Natural Earth, CPTI15 catalog (INGV)

Lake Iseo tsunami modeling methods (from Zafar et al., Nature Communications 2026) used a one- way coupled two- stage approach: first simulate the subaqueous landslide dynamics, then feed the resulting time- dependent bathymetric changes into a tsunami propagation, inundation model. Feedback from the waves onto the landslide is neglected, but hydrodynamic forces (viscous drag, added mass) are included in the landslide stage.

1. Reconstruction of pre- failure geometry and volumes

  • High-resolution LiDAR topography and multibeam bathymetry (2002 surveys by Regione Lombardia and OGS, CARG program).
  • Present- day bathymetry served as a morphological analogue for the pre-failure delta (assuming post- event sedimentation largely infilled the scars along a similar pathway).
  • In GIS, post- failure morphology was reconstructed by removing accumulated sediment and restoring a plausible failure- scar shape guided by bathymetric trends and erosional features.
  • Source volumes were calculated as the difference between the reconstructed post- failure surface and modern bathymetry, then iteratively adjusted until they matched the volumes of the mapped mass-wasting deposits (from seismic profiles + sediment cores) in the deep basin:
    • 1117 CE: 6.2×1076.2×107 m³
    • 1222 CE: 1.0×1071.0×107 m³
  • Assumption of single- event failure supported by the sedimentology of the deposits (erosive sandy base → single upward-fining unit → homogeneous suspension- settling layer from seiches).

2. Landslide modeling (BingClaw)

  • Two- layer, depth- averaged (2HD) viscoplastic debris- flow model BingClaw.
  • Rheology: Herschel- Bulkley (suitable for cohesive subaqueous landslides).
  • Layers:
    • Upper plug layer (moves en bloc, no internal shear).
    • Lower shear layer (deforms once shear stress exceeds yield strength).
  • Mass balance solved over the full depth; momentum equations solved separately per layer with a Godunov- type finite- volume scheme.
  • Key rheological parameters chosen to best match observed runout distance, deposit thickness, and spatial distribution (runout is most sensitive to yield strength):
    • 1117 CE: yield strength 25 Pa, bulk density 1600 kg m⁻³
    • 1222 CE: yield strength 7 Pa, bulk density 1650 kg m⁻³ (lower yield strength reflects higher water content and coarser sediment fraction)
    • Other fixed parameters (from literature and validation studies): fluidity index n=0.5n=0.5, added mass 0.1, frictional drag 0.01, pressure force 1.0, reference strain rate 100 s⁻¹.
  • Output: time- evolving landslide thickness and runout until final deposition in the deep basin (validated against seismic profiles and cores). The 1222 CE slide traveled farther and faster due to lower strength and more accommodation space.

3. Tsunami modeling (GeoClaw)

  • Time-dependent bathymetric changes from BingClaw drive wave generation.
  • Model: GeoClaw: 2- D depth -averaged nonlinear shallow- water equations (NSWE).
  • Features: shock- capturing Godunov- type finite- volume scheme, adaptive mesh refinement, effective wet or dry interface handling for inundation.
  • Grid resolution: ~10 m rectangular cells.
  • Manning roughness coefficient: 0.03.
  • Lake level: modern reference (185.44 m a.s.l.); no significant level change inferred over the last ~2 kyr.
  • Waves are long (~5.5 km wavelength for 1117 CE, ~22× maximum lake depth of 250 m), so NSWE is appropriate; water moves nearly as a coherent sheet.
  • Long- wave speed ≈gh≈50≈gh​≈50 m s⁻¹ (~180 km h⁻¹) in deep water.

4. Additional analyses and sensitivity

  • Froude number (Fr=U/gh​, where U is landslide velocity magnitude): calculated to assess generation efficiency (most efficient near Fr≈1Fr≈1). Tracked temporally for the 1117 CE event.
  • Dispersion sensitivity: comparison of nondispersive NSWE vs. a more complete (Boussinesq- type) model; results were nearly identical at the same times, supporting the NSWE approximation for these long waves.
  • Initiation- depth sensitivity: alternative scenarios with the 1117 CE failure starting deeper (45 m or 75 m below surface) produced lower maximum run-ups (~22 m or ~11 m instead of >50 m).
  • Validation: modeled deposit geometries match observations; tsunami results consistent with historical accounts (Vatican manuscript), archaeological damage (e.g., church of Sant’Andrea), and absence of deposits in sheltered southern areas.

Simulations used the Clawpack framework (BingClaw and GeoClaw).

Simulation data (outputs, Makefiles, plotting scripts for both events, including optional Boussinesq runs for 1117 CE) are available on Figshare. The approach has been validated on other events (e.g., Storegga, Alpine lake slides).

These methods combine geological constraints with physics- based numerical modeling to reconstruct the two medieval events and assess modern hazard.

A schematic cross-section illustrating the delta of the Oglio river to Lake Iseo, showing different phases: before Roman times with a forested delta, an overloaded delta due to land use, consequences of an earthquake lifting water and causing waves, and the delta regrowth over eight centuries.
How human land use caused the collapses, in a cross-section of the delta from the mouth of the river to the deep basin (a schematic, not to scale). Before Roman times, forested slopes fed the delta at a lower rate. Over 2,000 years, forest clearing, farming and grazing tripled the sediment reaching the lake, and the front of the delta grew steep and overloaded. An earthquake shook the front loose: the mass slid into the deep basin, the water dropped above the scar and rose ahead of the slide, and waves ran out across the lake and back onto the nearby shores. Today the two collapses lie buried as thick layers in the deep basin, where cores find them, and the front has grown back. Credit: Denys Dutykh

Human-enhanced tsunami hazard in large lakes

Human-induced erosion increases sediment delivery to lake deltas, raising their risk of collapse. At Lake Iseo (northern Italy), roughly two millennia of intensified land use (deforestation, agriculture, pastoralism) tripled sediment flux to the lake. This over steepened the Oglio River delta and preconditioned it for failure.

Geological records and numerical simulations show that earthquakes in 1117 CE (Mw 6.5) and 1222 CE (Mw 6.0) triggered major subaqueous delta collapses.

These generated tsunamis with maximum run- ups of approximately 50 m and 13 m, respectively. Historical accounts (Vatican Library manuscript) and archaeological evidence support the reconstructions.

Since the last collapse, eight centuries of continued human- driven erosion has rebuilt the delta. Shoreline populations are now highly vulnerable to future earthquake- triggered failures.

A global lake synthesis indicates that human- driven erosion has reached its highest levels since the Industrial Era, progressively overloading delta’s worldwide and potentially increasing the likelihood of similar events.

Main Results from Lake Iseo

  • Sediment loading: Since Roman times, human activities tripled sediment flux relative to earlier Holocene background levels. The delta front became steep and overloaded. A prior collapse occurred in the 6th century; further accumulation reloaded it.
  • Collapse volumes:
    • 1117 CE: ~62 × 10⁶ m³ (thickest deposit ~7 m in the deep basin).
    • 1222 CE: ~10 × 10⁶ m³ (deposit ~2 m thick), after rapid rebuilding in the intervening century.
  • Tsunami modeling:
    • 1117 CE: Waves >50 m near the northern shores; reached shores within ~1 minute; inundation up to ~2.7 km inland along the Oglio plain. At the town of Iseo (~7 min later), ~5.5 m run- up. Monte Isola partially sheltered southern areas.
    • 1222 CE: Peak waves ~13 m; inundation up to ~1 km inland.
  • Validation used sediment cores, seismic profiles, viscoplastic landslide modeling, and nonlinear hydrodynamic (shallow- water) tsunami simulations. Results match deposit geometries and historical and archaeological evidence (e.g., damage and rebuilding of the church of Sant’Andrea in Iseo; minimal impact and no deposits in the sheltered southern Torbiere del Sebino area).

The work demonstrates a persistent, human- amplified mechanism for generating large lacustrine tsunamis. Similar overloaded deltas and thick mass- wasting deposits exist in other lakes (e.g., Garda, Como).

Modern high sediment delivery rates mean comparable failures may become more likely under seismic loading. Hazard assessments for densely populated lake shores in tectonically active regions should incorporate long- term anthropogenic sediment dynamics, not only seismic sources.⁠

The paper integrates geophysics, sedimentology, history, archaeology, and numerical modeling (landslide rheology and tsunami propagation and inundation). Supplementary materials include cores, seismic profiles, and additional figures.

Corresponding author: Muhammad Naveed Zafar.

Infographic illustrating the collapse of 1117 in a landslide model, showing five stages: initial state, after 1 minute, after 3 minutes, after 10 minutes, and after 50 minutes, with annotations for delta front volume and thickness of the sliding mass.
The collapse of 1117 in the landslide model, from its start to 50 minutes later. At the start, a crescent of sediment holding 62 million cubic meters sits on the front of the delta. The mud stays rigid until it is pushed beyond its yield strength, then flows: after 1 and 3 minutes it pours down the slope, after 10 minutes it runs along the deep basin, and after 50 minutes it rests there as a layer about 5 meters thick, more than 10 kilometers from where it started. Credit: Denys Dutykh; data: Zafar et al. 2026 (Figshare, CC BY 4.0), Terrain Tiles (AWS Open Data)

Journal: Nature Communications, volume 17, Article number: 10531 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78272-8

Published: 15 October 2026

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Zafar,
Pierre Sabatier,
Denys Dutykh,
William Rapuc,
Raphaël Paris,
Andrea Piccin,
Pascal Vuillemin &
Flavio S. Anselmetti

Abstract

Worldwide, human-induced erosion enhances sediment delivery to lake deltas, increasing their susceptibility to collapse. In Lake Iseo, northern Italy, two millennia of intensified land use tripled sediment flux, oversteepening the delta and preconditioning it for failure. Here we show from geological records and numerical simulations that earthquakes in 1117 CE (Mw 6.5) and 1222 CE (Mw 6.0) triggered major subaqueous delta collapses, generating massive tsunamis with maximum run-ups of ~50 m and ~13 m, respectively. Historical accounts from the Vatican Library and archeological evidence support these reconstructions. Since the last collapse, eight centuries of human-induced erosion have rebuilt the delta, leaving shoreline populations highly vulnerable to future earthquake-triggered failures. A global lake synthesis showed that human-driven erosion has reached its highest levels since the Industrial Era, progressively overloading deltas worldwide; thus, similar catastrophic failures may become more likely in the future. These findings reveal a persistent, human-amplified mechanism of lacustrine tsunami generation and intensity with major implications for hazard assessment.

An ominous “Sandyversary”

With the anniversary of Sandy, I wanted to show the evolution of our forecasts. I had Grok look at all our issuances from Oct 22, and I had it issued a summary of what was out in public the 25th. Our first warning went out the 21st. And references to past events explaining how a storm like this should happen and is natural were also shown.
Bastardi published this on Thursday, October 25, 2012, while the system that became Hurricane Sandy was still developing in the Caribbean/Atlantic (around the time it was named or shortly after). He and WeatherBELL had already been issuing client warnings since the previous weekend. The piece is both a forecast update and a longer-term argument about why this kind of event was expected.

A dramatic depiction of Hurricane Sandy over a coastal area, with dark storm clouds and lightning, and the text 'Sandyversary' prominently displayed.
AI generated by Meta

From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

Satellite image showing a large storm system impacting the southeastern United States, with cloud formations and weather patterns visible.

With the anniversary of Sandy, I wanted to show the evolution of our forecasts. I had Grok look at all our issuances from  Oct 22, and I had it issued a summary of what was out in public the 25th. Our first warning went out the 21st.  And references to past events explaining how a storm like this should happen and is natural were also shown.

AI summary of a public post on the 25th:

Context and timing

Bastardi published this on Thursday, October 25, 2012, while the system that became Hurricane Sandy was still developing in the Caribbean/Atlantic (around the time it was named or shortly after). He and WeatherBELL had already been issuing client warnings since the previous weekend. The piece is both a forecast update and a longer-term argument about why this kind of event was expected.

Core forecast and warnings
Bastardi states he had been “loudly warning” WeatherBELL clients of a historic storm in the making.
On the Sunday before the column, they put out a chart showing the system (still unnamed at that point) hitting near New York City from the south-southeast as a 75-knot hurricane early the following week.
By October 25, he had adjusted his forecast slightly south: landfall into New Jersey, with a major snowstorm on the western side from western Pennsylvania into West Virginia.
He described it to clients as a multibillion-dollar storm where it hit, and potentially the worst historically in some Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. He noted the window for it to miss was closing.
The “Philadelphia Story” scenario
Bastardi had long wondered why a hurricane from the southeast had never struck the mid- or northern Atlantic coast ( my dads idea). He routinely illustrated this in talks as the “Philadelphia Story”:

A hurricane approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the southeast, near or south of the mouth of Delaware Bay.
It drives a storm surge up the funnel-shaped Delaware Bay (analogous to what the 1938 hurricane did in Providence).
That surge meets river flooding coming downstream on the Delaware River (worsened by modern dam releases from upstream lakes).
Such a storm would also devastate the Jersey Shore worse than the 1944 hurricane.
He framed the developing event as the combination of individual past events coming together in one place. Rather than asking “why is this happening?”, he said he had always wondered “why hasn’t this happened yet?”

Seasonal and pattern context
WeatherBELL had said from the start of the 2012 hurricane season that the end of the season would feature a tropical cyclone coming out of the Caribbean and threatening the East Coast.
They expected an end-of-season pattern similar to the in-close storms that opened the season.
Three weeks earlier, they had again told clients the pattern was setting up for this.
Natural causes, not global warming
Bastardi repeatedly stressed that the storm would result from natural atmospheric processes and pattern recognition, not man-made global warming or CO2:

A tropical cyclone interacting with a massive early-season cold air mass, forcing a northwest turn into the Mid-Atlantic.
Historical precedents: his father (a degreed meteorologist) used to show him hurricane tracks and note that shifting a track by only a couple of hundred miles would produce exactly this kind of outcome. Meteorologists had recognized the setup as possible for years.
“It will not be global warming but the combination of natural events that will cause it… If it does occur, it will be because of nature, not man.”
Closing
He invited readers to WeatherBELL.com for detailed tracking (including a trial option and access to prior archives showing how long they had been setting the event up). He ended by describing the weather as “a majestic display of creation” that humans cannot control but can observe and try to understand.

Later references
Bastardi later cited this exact October 25 column (and the earlier client warnings starting around October 21) in subsequent Patriot Post pieces as evidence that Sandy was a forecastable, pattern-driven event rather than an unprecedented CO2-linked disaster. He contrasted the early WeatherBELL guidance with more delayed or different official outlooks at the time.?

This is a concise but complete rendering of the article’s content and argument.

So here are those updates (just the maps of our tracks):

October 22nd WeatherBELL Analytics Tropical Update

October 22,2012

Right off the bat, here is the latest idea: very close to yesterday and it is the “capturing” (ECMWF) rather than escape scenario, as per the GFS.

Satellite image showing weather patterns over the eastern United States and Caribbean, with annotated wind speeds in knots for various days of the week.

I  think the capture is most likely . The “Wilma” idea of a storm is out, but new strong, non-tropical is second, and the total escape is last.

October 23rd WeatherBELL Analytics Tropical Update:

October 23, 2012

Weather radar image showing tropical system predictions with wind speeds in knots for each day of the week, highlighting a 'damaging snow threat' in the northeastern United States.

A damaging snowstorm is possible to the west of the track of this early next week in the mountains.

October 24, 2012

I have no changes in the reasoning on Sandy. The forecast if a blend of the ECMWF operational and yesterday’s idea. I will cut right to the point.

Satellite image showing weather forecasts including a damaging snow threat in the northeastern US, with wind speed estimates for several days labeled in red, and the path of Hurricane Tony indicated.

The idea remains the same: the escape is the least likely, the Wilma (storm out to sea but nor’easter develops) is second, and the most likely for the reasons I have been laying out since Sunday, being the track we have now.

October 25th WeatherBELL Analytics Tropical Update

October 25, 2012

I am well aware of all the different model ideas, but my ideas on this remain the same with the forecast representing the capture option as it has from Sunday. I still list the total escape idea, but it is now 1 in 10 chance. The Wilma option remains a 3 in 10 chance, which means my idea is now 3 in 5, if we are looking at this from the idea of all 3. One has to make a forecast though, so the forecast remains the same.

Satellite image showing a weather map with a focus on a winter storm threat in the northeastern United States, along with wind speed predictions for various days of the week.

Keep in mind when this was put out the NHC track was this:

Weather map showing the projected path of a hurricane with time markers and locations, including Bermuda and parts of the southeastern United States.

And there were other forecasts still having a complete miss.

The implication here is for a 10–20-billion-dollar storm, and the threat of a major disaster for the ports of PHL and ILG should the center go ashore and shove the storm surge up the Delaware Bay and flooding coming down the river. This has been something I have written on over the years, asking myself why it has not happened. Also devastated to the maximum degree would be Atlantic City as their beach faces south-southeast and is cup shaped. All the coast from Hatteras north would have hurricane winds and unlike Irene, which weakened, this would spread out true, but the baroclinic support would simply make her as powerful over a larger area rather than focused fury at the center. This will use non tropical energy sources to max out over the water, which is very much above normal.

To be blunt, it is the focusing of low level heat from the warm ocean in the very area that the coldest deviations from normal aloft are going to occur. Until nature can do her job and balance it out, the storm will deepen, then release. Crushing snows measured in feet will fall from western Pennsylvania into West Virginia, and snow may even reach secondary cities from Roanoke to Harrisburg, perhaps even into DC by the end.

Landfall Monday was at 935 mb before the weakening started.

October 26th WeatherBELL Analytics Tropical Update

October 26, 2012

I have merely adjusted the previous track a bit and the forecast is a blend of the old track, ECMWF and GFDL. The storm will re-intensify tomorrow and Sunday as it gets away from the upper feature that has captured it now. The question, of course, is where will the turn back be? I believe the ECMWF is the closest model and the landfall is half way between my idea yesterday and its 00z run, which the GFDL looks a lot like.

The “pick your poison” option is focused most heavily on the Delmarva, NJ and the threat of the major surge up Delaware Bay compounded by the river water rushing down, which could put the ports of PHL and ILG in a very bad position. A 10-15 foot storm surge is possible with this, which would inundate the coast in a way not seen since 1944 (it would probably be worse). The old GFS, if correct with the hit further north and the driving of water down the Long Island Sound while the storm surge tries to advance west, would mean NYC would have record high water. Such an event could put tunnels and subways under water. Again, pick your poison, since it seems the escape route east of the storm is out.

Given foliage still on trees, power outages equal or greater to Irene and a damage total similar or greater seems to be likely. The heavy snow area may be paralyzed for a few days, and is shown in purple.

Satellite image depicting weather patterns with storm tracks, wind speeds, and potential landfall locations, including storm surge estimates.

Special Sandy Update – October 27, 2012

October 27, 2012

Sandy at 967 mb rates about 3.75 out of 10 on my scale, still a hurricane. The recon has 63 kt surface winds and how a storm is downgraded with that pressure and the plane finding that surface wind without flying over every single square inch of the storm is a classroom exercise, not a realistic approach. The power scale showed its mettle in Isaac and with Sandy as the storms “tighten” coming to land. Sandy will always have less wind, given her pressure, than a hurricane in the tropics. But with a favorable outflow and jet entrance region developing the rest of the way in, and water as high as 28c, this is going to re-deepen, in my opinion, to at least 950, probably close to 940.

The latest track takes her inland on the central Jersey coast, north of the major disaster path for PHL but very close to the path that could lead to a devastation of Atlantic City (landfall just south). This path is also very close to the path that would lead to the unthinkable in NYC, such as has been shown at hurricane conferences, enough of a surge to put a large part of NYC underwater as sound side flooding and Atlantic storm surge combine. I have gone over all these options; the path is in the middle of what is now a 7-day spread of paths that started Sunday.

Satellite image showing a weather system over the southeastern United States with wind speed measurements and forecasted landfall details.

October 28, 2012

This storm will be everything said about it, and more. On my scale with pressure in mid Category 3 and wind 90% of flight level, this is a 4.85 out of 10. Its pressure is around Ike’s already and in fact, one could say this is the Northeast equal to the Ike situation, a storm that will do far more damage than what its category implies.

Naturally, I think NHC not issuing hurricane warnings and playing classification games is folly. Those things should be left for hurricane conferences, not here. But that is all I wish to say on that matter.

The track is in the mid ground of what is now an 8 day forecast period that has been given to you.

Look for the pressure to bounce up and down until the convection can get wrapped around again, but the overall idea of the intensification trend that I am expecting to see today into tomorrow appears to be starting.

Satellite image showing a weather map of the eastern United States with a tropical storm highlighted, including wind speeds and pressure readings for specific days.

October 29, 2012

Notice back in 2012 how much size mattered.

Sandy is now rated 5.1 out of 10 on my power scale, which gives barometric pressure equal weight in assessing the storms overall capability. This idea is because the lower the pressure, even though the wind may not be in one spot, the more overall power the storm has and it also helps determine whether the storm could tighten up and wind increase as we are seeing now with Sandy. For reference, Katrina was 8.3, Ike 5.5. Last year, Irene (when it reached the Northeast) was a 4, as was Isaac this year. This is about as severe a situation as we can imagine for the Northeast areas from Delmarva to Long Island with a landfalling storm as described in the map below near Atlantic City this evening, or very close to the cumulative midpoint of WeatherBell ideas since last Sunday.

Satellite image showing weather patterns with markers indicating wind speeds and pressure at different times during a storm's approach and landfall.

Note The pressure  was 945.5 at Somers Point NJ when the eye passed. Strongest winds came from the south after the eye passage. The witness was a degreed meteorologist ( my dad) who has been in 7 hurricanes, 3 of them that passed right over him in Rhode Island ( 38,44,54. He said those had nothing on Sandy

15-30 inch snows will blanket from northern North Carolina to the West Virginia mountains, though most low areas will have much less. Backlash wet flakes may make it in to DC and BWI. The snow is pretty much as outlined last week.

I expect NHC to have to up this as it comes to land and the storm surge map will have to add another layer (13-15 feet). Keep in mind the power rating from Friday was the reason I said this would have a 10-15 foot surge.

A map showing the northeastern United States, highlighting New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and surrounding areas.

There isn’t much more to say here that hasn’t been said before, except that the hurricane season ended the way it started and we opined about, in close and with warmer water, the threat of a bigger hit. The MJO rolled right into where one wanted to see it for this and strong amplitude of 1 to 2 was a hint this could happen well in advance. One of the benefits of being the son of a hurricane studying meteorologist (my dad) was that I saw so many maps of storms that could have done what this did, but were further west, that when the set up came, I recognized at least the threat.

In any case, I think we can agree this was not a hype storm, but will live up to its billing.

This should shut down the hurricane season, but again you must balance out what I have forecasted as far as the sensible weather with the power outage implication vs the cold. This will cause more damage than Irene.

October 30, 2012

Sandy will wind down over the northeast the next few days and with the MJO moving away from its favored phases for development in the late season, the end game storm out of the western Caribbean is most likely to be just that.

The tropics should be quiet the next several days (weeks, months probably).

Obviously, I will keep my eyes open.

And ominous Sandyversary.  A storm 30-50 miles further south; it is the Philadelphia story. And sometimes that track should happen also.  And it will have nothing to do with climate man made climate change, and everything to do what nature was made to do.

Germany Enters Winter with Record-Low Gas Storage, Raising Price and Supply Risks

German gas storage is currently low for the start of the heating season.
EU- wide storage is higher at around 74- 75%
The low German gas storage levels (around 61% at the start of the heating season, missing the ~70% target) primarily create risks of higher energy prices and reduced buffers rather than an immediate supply crisis.
If German (or broader European) gas storage levels drop below 50% during winter, the system becomes significantly more vulnerable, though it does not automatically mean an immediate physical shortage or blackouts.

Infographic showing Germany's natural gas storage levels in January 2024, highlighting critical low storage at 18.7%, with indicators of supply risks and rising gas prices.
AI generated by Grok

German gas storage is currently low for the start of the heating season.

As of late October, and 1 November 2026, levels stand at roughly 61- 61.6% full (around 151- 152 TWh of working gas out of ~247 TWh capacity), according to AGSI+ data reported by sources including the Bundesnetzagentur, gasspeicherkarte.de, and multiple news outlets.

This missed the national target of about 70% by 1 November (most sites aim for 80%, with some exceptions at 45%, averaging ~70%). It is well below the five-year seasonal average (historically closer to 85- 90% and more at this time of year) and the lowest on record for late October and early November in available data going back to 2011.

EU- wide storage is higher at around 74- 75%.

Official view vs. industry warnings

  • The Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency) and Economy Ministry state that supply remains secure and the risk of a strained situation is low. They emphasize that storage is only one factor; ongoing pipeline imports (especially from Norway), LNG terminals, European interconnectors, and demand management matter more. They note that traders handle much of the winter hedging and that missing the exact target is not automatically critical. State-owned SEFE has been directed to add more gas.⁠
  • The storage industry association INES calls the shortfall a “serious warning”. Germany is entering winter with smaller safety buffers and could be more vulnerable to prolonged extreme cold or import disruptions. They have urged stronger measures for future winters.

Prices have been elevated (TTF around €100 and more /MWh recently in some reports), influenced by global factors including the Iran- related disruptions, which complicated summer refilling.

Weather context

Temperatures are dropping seasonally, with frost already occurring in places and forecasts pointing to cooler conditions and possible colder air (including polar and continental influences) around mid- November.

This will increase heating demand and accelerate storage withdrawals, which have already begun in net terms. Long- range signals remain uncertain, but early cold spells would test the lower starting stocks.

Bottom line: Levels are uncomfortably low by historical and target standards heading into winter, reducing the cushion against a hard winter. Authorities are not sounding alarms about shortages under normal- to- moderate conditions thanks to diversified imports, but the margin for error is thinner than in recent high- storage years. Monitoring daily AGSI+ and Bundesnetzagentur updates and weather will be key over the coming weeks.

Graphic displaying the gas storage tank levels in Germany and Europe as of October 31, 2026, highlighting percentage levels and comparisons with previous days.
Gas storage filling level currently: 61.0 % in Germany

The low German gas storage levels (around 61% at the start of the heating season, missing the ~70% target) primarily create risks of higher energy prices and reduced buffers rather than an immediate supply crisis.

Authorities (Bundesnetzagentur and the Economy Ministry) assess the risk of strained supply as low under normal conditions, thanks to diversified imports (Norway pipelines, LNG terminals, European neighbors).

However, the thinner cushion amplifies vulnerabilities, especially for energy-intensive industry and households.

Key economic impacts

  • Higher and more volatile gas and electricity prices: European TTF prices have already roughly tripled this year (hitting levels above €100/MWh at times, the highest since late 2022), driven mainly by the Iran- related disruptions to global LNG, shipping but worsened by lower European (especially German) stocks. This forces greater reliance on spot-market purchases. Wholesale costs feed into household heating bills and industrial energy expenses. New household gas tariffs have risen (e.g., reports of averages around 11- 14 ct/kWh range recently), and network fees have also increased. A cold snap or further supply tightness could push prices higher, adding to cost- of- living pressures.⁠
  • Pressure on industry and competitiveness: Germany’s energy- intensive sectors (chemicals, steel, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering) are particularly exposed. High or spiking gas power prices raise production costs, squeeze margins, and can force output cuts if prices exceed affordability thresholds during cold peaks. Industry groups have warned of potential significant economic damage in a very cold winter with low stocks. This compounds existing competitiveness challenges from elevated energy costs post- Russia gas phase- out. Some analysts note that low stocks increase exposure to global LNG markets, where Europe competes with Asia.⁠
  • Inflation and broader growth effects: Elevated gas prices tend to pass through to broader inflation (energy is a key component of HICP/CPI). One modeling estimate suggested a sustained high TTF level could add modestly to peak inflation. Higher costs reduce real household incomes and industrial investment, weighing on GDP growth in an already challenged German economy. Extreme scenarios (prolonged cold and import disruptions) could lead to demand rationing or voluntary cutbacks with larger output losses; milder winters keep effects mostly price- driven.
  • Household burden: Higher heating costs hit consumers directly. Regulators have explicitly warned that gas has become “considerably more expensive” and customers should prepare for this. Lower- income households face greater relative impact, potentially increasing social and political pressure.
  • Spillover to the rest of the EU: As Europe’s largest gas consumer and storage holder, Germany’s extra winter buying can tighten the continental market and lift prices elsewhere (Italy has publicly criticized Berlin on this point).

Mitigating factors and outlook

Diversified supply routes, LNG capacity, and ongoing imports reduce the chance of physical shortages in an average winter. The government has ordered extra purchases via SEFE and is discussing stronger storage obligations for future seasons. Storage deliverability (withdrawal rates drop as levels fall) becomes more relevant late in a hard winter (e.g., February- March).

Overall: The main near- term economic hit is through sustained higher energy prices rather than blackouts or widespread rationing. This adds headwinds to inflation control, industrial competitiveness, and household purchasing power. A mild winter limits the damage; a cold one with continued global tightness would amplify costs and risks for Germany’s manufacturing- heavy economy. Monitoring weather, LNG flows, and daily storage draws will determine how severe the effects become.

Line graph displaying natural gas prices in EUR/MWh from January 2022 to September 2023, showing fluctuating trends with highlighted price peaks and lows for the Day Ahead and Future market indicators.
Federal Network Agency – Current situation Gas supply – Gas prices wholesale in EUR/MWh

If German (or broader European) gas storIf German (or broader European) gas storage levels drop below 50% during winter, the system becomes significantly more vulnerable, though it does not automatically mean an immediate physical shortage or blackouts.age levels drop below 50% during winter, the system becomes significantly more vulnerable, though it does not automatically mean an immediate physical shortage or blackouts.

Effects depend heavily on the timing (early vs. late winter), weather severity, ongoing import rates (pipelines and LNG), and demand.

Technical and operational effects

  • Reduced deliverability (withdrawal rates): As fill levels fall, reservoir pressure drops. Storage sites cannot withdraw gas as quickly. On peak cold days, storage can normally cover a large share of demand (sometimes >50% in extreme conditions). Below ~50% (and especially lower), the maximum daily output declines, making it harder to meet sudden spikes even if gas remains in the ground.⁠
  • Smaller seasonal buffer: Storage typically supplies a substantial portion of winter demand. Crossing below 50% earlier than usual leaves less reserve for the rest of the season, especially late winter (February- March), when the legal German target is only 30% (40% for some Bavarian sites).
  • Higher risk of shortfalls in extreme scenarios: Industry modeling (e.g., by INES) shows that even starting the winter at ~77% can lead to daily shortfalls of >25% under extreme cold. Starting lower or dropping below 50% mid- winter amplifies this. In very cold conditions with constrained imports, temporary supply gaps become more likely.

Market and price effects

  • Sharper price spikes: Markets react quickly to tighter inventories. Wholesale gas prices (TTF) would likely rise further as traders bid more aggressively for remaining LNG cargoes and pipeline volumes. This feeds into electricity prices (gas often sets the marginal power price). Household and industrial bills would rise with a lag.
  • Greater reliance on spot markets and imports: Germany would need to import more on a day- to- day basis, competing with Asia and other European buyers. Any LNG disruptions (e.g., weather, geopolitics) hit harder.

Economic and supply- security consequences

  • Industry first in line for restrictions: Protected consumers (households, hospitals, critical infrastructure, some combined heat- and -power plants) have priority. In a genuine shortage (“Gasmangellage”), the Bundesnetzagentur can order industrial demand reduction or curtailment to protect households. Energy- intensive sectors (chemicals, steel, manufacturing) would face higher costs or forced output cuts first.
  • Broader economic pressure: Higher energy costs raise inflation, squeeze industrial competitiveness and margins, and reduce household purchasing power. Extreme cases could lead to measurable GDP impacts via production losses.
  • Knock- on to the power system: More expensive or constrained gas raises electricity prices and can stress the grid if gas- fired plants are needed for balancing (especially during low wind and solar periods).

Context and thresholds

Germany’s current starting level (~61%) already provides a thinner cushion than in recent high- storage years. Officials currently rate the risk of a strained situation as low for an average winter because of diversified imports.

However, dropping below 50% (particularly if it happens relatively early or coincides with a cold snap) would increase the probability of tighter conditions and higher prices.

Historical winters have seen levels fall well below 50% (even toward 20%) by late winter without collapse when imports held up, but those started from much fuller autumn positions.

In short: Below 50% does not equal empty tanks or widespread rationing under normal conditions, but it shrinks the safety margin, slows peak withdrawal capability, raises the chance of price spikes or temporary industrial restrictions in cold weather, and leaves less buffer for the following season.

Continuous imports and demand management remain the key mitigants. Real-time monitoring of weather, LNG arrivals, and daily storage draws would determine the exact outcome.

Infographic showing gas storage levels in Germany at 61.03%, labeled as "Critical" due to being the lowest level in the past ten years on this date. It includes comparisons to previous day, last year, and historical data from 2016 to 2025.
Germany gas storage levels today: 61.0% (Critical)

Gas storage levels in various European countries, showing percentages and status (Comfortable, Normal, Below average, Tight, Critical).
Germany gas storage levels today: 61.0% (Critical)

Northern Pines Thrive Far from Home: Grow 4× Faster and Resist Drought Better in the Southern Hemisphere

Northern Hemisphere conifers (such as pines, spruces, firs, and cedars) planted in the Southern Hemisphere can grow up to four times faster and show greater drought resistance and resilience than the same species in their native ranges.

The paradoxical combination of rapid growth and drought resilience challenges standard ecological theory (which predicts a growth– stress tolerance trade-off). It highlights the importance of eco- evolutionary history and has implications for the role of afforestation as a global carbon sink.

A scenic view of a dense pine forest with tall trees and a backdrop of rolling hills under a clear blue sky.
AI generated by Grok

Northern Hemisphere conifers (such as pines, spruces, firs, and cedars) planted in the Southern Hemisphere can grow up to four times faster and show greater drought resistance and resilience than the same species in their native ranges.

This finding comes from a large international study led by researchers including Alex Fajardo (University of Talca / Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity) and involving University of Mississippi biologist Stephen Brewer, among more than two dozen co- authors from multiple continents.

The team examined growth via standardized dendrochronological (tree- ring) surveys at 192 sites across four continents and published the results in Nature in 2026 (“Pines grow faster and are more drought resilient in the Southern Hemisphere”).

Key findings

  • Non- native Southern Hemisphere populations grew substantially faster while also being less affected by drought and recovering better afterward. This challenges the common ecological expectation of a trade- off between rapid growth and stress tolerance.
  • These trees showed higher concentrations of non- structural carbohydrates (sugars and starches), which help store energy for stressful periods, and lower δ¹³C values, consistent with fewer stomatal limitations on photosynthesis and higher net carbon assimilation.⁠
  • Native Southern Hemisphere trees in the genus Nothofagus (southern beeches) also performed reasonably well in both growth and drought tolerance.

Possible contributing factors include release from co- evolved pests, pathogens, and herbivores (“enemy release”), along with other environmental or physiological differences in the new ranges. Exact mechanisms require further study.

Implications for carbon sinks

Faster growth plus drought resilience makes these non- native conifers attractive candidates for afforestation projects aimed at storing carbon and mitigating climate change. Effective carbon sinks need trees that grow quickly and survive dry periods.⁠

However, the researchers strongly caution against simply promoting large-scale non- native conifer plantations:

  • These trees (e.g., pines and Douglas fir) have long been planted for timber in places such as Chile, Brazil, and South Africa, but they often escape plantations and invade native habitats.
  • In Brazil’s Cerrado savanna, for example, they can outcompete and eliminate native vegetation. Similar invasion and fire- related issues occur elsewhere, including in Mississippi with certain pine species.
  • Non- native plantations can carry high biodiversity and social costs.

Native species such as Nothofagus may offer more sustainable alternatives for carbon sequestration and ecosystem health in the Southern Hemisphere.

In short, the study highlights both a surprising performance advantage for certain trees far from their evolutionary homes and the complex trade- offs involved when using them for climate mitigation.

Map showing global vegetation distribution with highlighted regions.
Geographical and biome distribution of conifer species in their native and non-native ranges. Credit: Nature (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10969-8

Pines grow faster and are more drought resilient in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract (key points)

Drought- induced conifer mortality is a global concern, yet Northern Hemisphere conifers planted at massive scales in the Southern Hemisphere do not show the same magnitude of growth decline or mortality as in their native ranges.

Using a standardized dendrochronological (tree- ring) survey at 192 sites across four continents, the authors found that:

  • Northern Hemisphere conifers grow up to four times faster in the Southern Hemisphere.
  • They are also more resistant and resilient to drought than conspecifics in their native ranges.

Non-native populations had:

  • Higher concentrations of non- structural carbohydrates (sugars and starches), which are linked to drought tolerance.
  • Lower δ¹³C values, consistent with fewer stomatal limitations on photosynthesis.

These traits, combined with higher stem growth rates, point to higher net carbon assimilation in non-native ranges.

The paradoxical combination of rapid growth and drought resilience challenges standard ecological theory (which predicts a growth– stress tolerance trade-off). It highlights the importance of eco- evolutionary history and has implications for the role of afforestation as a global carbon sink.

Study overview

  • Lead authors: Alex Fajardo and colleagues (including Frida I. Piper, Antonio Gazol, J. Julio Camarero, J. Stephen Brewer, Martín A. Núñez, Ragan M. Callaway, and many others from ~10 countries).
  • Species: Primarily Pinaceae (pines such as Pinus radiata, P. contorta, P. ponderosa, P. elliottii, P. sylvestris, plus larch, Douglas fir, etc.).
  • Comparisons: Native ranges (Northern Hemisphere natural stands and some plantations) vs. non- native ranges (Southern Hemisphere plantations and some invasions), plus some adjacent native Southern Hemisphere angiosperms (Nothofagus spp.).
  • Methods: Tree- ring analysis of basal area increment, drought response metrics (resistance, recovery, resilience using SPEI indices), non- structural carbohydrate measurements, and wood carbon isotope analysis (δ¹³C). Data and code are available on Figshare.

Broader context and implications

The superior performance is likely linked in part to enemy release (escape from co- evolved herbivores, pathogens, and competitors abundant in native ranges).

While this makes non- native conifers attractive for rapid carbon sequestration, the authors caution strongly against large -scale planting of exotic species. Many (e.g., Pinus contorta) are invasive in the Southern Hemisphere and can reduce native biodiversity.

Native Nothofagus forests showed intermediate growth but comparable drought tolerance and higher wood density, offering a more sustainable alternative for carbon storage in some regions.⁠

The full article is behind a Nature paywall (institutional access, Nature+, or purchase required). Supplementary materials, data, and code are openly available via the links on the article page and Figshare.

Journal: Nature, volume 657, pages 697–702 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10969-8

Published: 2 September 2026

Provided: University of Mississippi

Authors: Alex Fajardo,
Antonio Gazol,
J. Julio Camarero,
Michael J. Gundale,
Frida I. Piper,
J. Stephen Brewer,
Rowan Buxton,
Ellen Cieraad,
Alejandro Dezzotti,
Angel Fernández-Cortés,
Florian Goedecke,
Ester González de Andrés,
Suzaan Kritzinger-Klopper,
Annamari Laurén,
Juan C. Llancabure,
Anne C. S. McIntosh,
Tomás Milani,
Jaime Moyano,
Martín A. Núñez,
Marjo Palviainen,
Duane Peltzer,
Claudia Reyes-Bahamonde,
Lina Rinne,
Anna Sala,
Robert P. Skelton,
Cristina Valeriano &
Ragan M. Callaway

Abstract

Drought-induced conifer mortality is a global concern1, yet conifers native to the Northern Hemisphere that have been planted at massive scales in the Southern Hemisphere do not appear to show the same magnitude of growth decline or mortality as in their native ranges. Using a standardized dendrochronological survey at 192 sites across four continents, we find that Northern Hemisphere conifers grow up to four times faster in the Southern Hemisphere and are also more resistant and resilient to drought than conspecifics in native ranges, suggesting that non-native populations respond fundamentally different to abiotic stress. Conifers in non-native ranges had higher concentrations of non-structural carbohydrates, commonly associated with drought tolerance2,3, and lower δ13C values, consistent with lower stomatal limitations on photosynthesis. In sum, higher concentrations of non-structural carbohydrate, lower δ13C values and higher stem growth rates all point towards higher net carbon assimilation by conifers in non-native ranges. This paradoxical combination of high growth rates yet resilience to drought emphasizes the importance of integrating eco-evolutionary history into ecological theory and is relevant for assessing the ultimate role of afforestation as global carbon sinks.

German Startup Buries Wood in Namibia for Climate Credits as Offshore Wind Industry Warns of Up to 23,000 Jobs at Risk

A German start- up called Carbonsate is burying chipped woody biomass (mainly encroaching bushwood) in sealed pits in Namibia as a form of long-term carbon sequestration, then selling the resulting CO₂- removal certificates.

The German offshore wind industry (not oil and gas) is warning of a jobs crisis, with the industry association BWO estimating that up to about 23,000 of roughly 49,000 existing jobs could be at risk if expansion stalls.

A split image showing two landscapes: on the left, workers in safety gear observe an excavator loading wood chips in a dry, mountainous area; on the right, wind turbines stand in the ocean with a boat and oil rigs in the background under a cloudy sky.
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A German start- up called Carbonsate is burying chipped woody biomass (mainly encroaching bushwood) in sealed pits in Namibia as a form of long-term carbon sequestration, then selling the resulting CO₂- removal certificates.

Key details

  • Founders and location: The company was founded by two people from Saxony (Johanna Bröll and Fabian Sperling). Operations are in Namibia (northern Otjozondjupa Region, near Otjiwarongo). The approach uses residual or surplus bush biomass that is chipped and placed in large, sealed earthen pits designed to limit oxygen exposure and slow or prevent decomposition for at least 100 years, keeping the carbon locked away rather than released as CO₂.⁠
  • Scale and commercial side: In October 2026 the company opened its third storage facility. It has an agreement with the carbon- credit marketplace Senken to deliver a total of 50,000 tonnes of CO₂ removal by 2028. Certificate prices are reported in the range of roughly €120- 150 per tonne. Buyers have included companies seeking voluntary offsets.⁠
  • Context in Namibia: The biomass comes from bush- clearing efforts related to the problem of woody plant encroachment on savanna grasslands (a longstanding land- management issue in parts of Namibia). Similar smaller projects exist (e.g., by a Swiss firm in the same area).

Coverage and debate

MDR reported on the project in early September 2026 (and followed up later), framing it as an attempt to turn otherwise unused residual wood into a climate resource while generating revenue through certificates.

Opinion pieces (e.g., around late October and early November 2026) contrast the Namibian burial approach with Germany’s simultaneous promotion of wood- fired energy, noting for example a planned plant in Chemnitz expected to burn ~100,000 tonnes of wood per year.

Critics (including some environmental analysts) question the durability of the sequestration, potential methane or CO₂ leakage risks if seals fail, local ecological or land-use impacts of large-scale bush removal and pit construction, and broader issues of European firms generating carbon credits from African biomass resources. Proponents present it as a practical, measurable form of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) using available material.

In short, the headline is accurate: a Saxony- based start- up is actively burying wood biomass in Namibia specifically to claim long- term carbon storage and sell related certificates on the voluntary market.

The method remains relatively novel and is part of the wider (and still evolving) discussion around biomass- based CDR techniques.

A dramatic seascape featuring wind turbines partially submerged in turbulent water, with cloudy skies suggesting a stormy atmosphere.

The German offshore wind industry (not oil and gas) is warning of a jobs crisis, with the industry association BWO estimating that up to about 23,000 of roughly 49,000 existing jobs could be at risk if expansion stalls.

This matches recent reporting from NDR (23 October 2026), taz (21 October 2026), and BWO statements and analyses from mid- October 2026.

Key points from the coverage and BWO- commissioned analysis (by wind:research):

  • Current employment is around 49,000 jobs (roughly 31,500 full- time equivalents). In a “value creation crisis” scenario with continued project and order gaps, the sector risks losing a large share of these, figures of up to ~23,000 jobs threatened in the nearer term (e.g., next few years if the pipeline does not recover) appear in reporting, while longer- term projections to 2045 put full- time job losses at around 21,000 (with headcount impacts sometimes cited higher, e.g., ~34,000) and tens of thousands of potential additional jobs unrealized if the 70 GW target by 2045 is missed.⁠
  • Suppliers, especially foundation and component makers in coastal states such as Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg- Western Pomerania, face order gaps from around 2028. Example: Steelwind Nordenham (foundations) has work mainly from UK projects into 2027 but anticipates a sharp drop afterward; some firms have already announced cuts.⁠
  • Causes include failed or bid- less tenders (none successfully concluded since around June 2025), rising construction and financing costs and interest rates, delayed grid connections, and awarded projects that are economically strained or in limbo. Earlier high bids (e.g., by oil majors in 2023) have become harder to realize under current conditions.
  • Longer- term study scenarios also project major revenue shortfalls (tens of billions cumulatively, potentially hundreds of billions by 2045 in a deep-stagnation case) and capacity well below the 70 GW goal (e.g., only around half in a crisis case).

BWO and industry voices are pushing for changes to the Offshore Wind Energy Act (WindSeeG) amendments under debate, including more reliable two- sided Contracts for Difference (CfDs) with indexation and options for developers to hand back uneconomic sites so they can be re- tendered quickly.

Several state premiers (coastal and some inland) have also pressed the federal Economics Ministry on the risks of job losses and lost industrial value creation.

Some early job cuts are already occurring or announced at individual suppliers, but the large “up to 23,000” figure is a forward- looking risk estimate tied to continued stagnation in the project pipeline rather than immediate confirmed mass layoffs. The situation remains fluid as policy talks continue.

Rusty wind turbines standing on weathered pillars in turbulent waters under a dark, cloudy sky.