UN ‘biodiversity’ summit advances global control over land, money, & resources

Private property rights, free markets, access to resources, and national sovereignty suffered another series of blows at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity’s 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17).

The Yerevan Pathway retains the push to eliminate, phase out, or reform incentives deemed “harmful to biodiversity,” despite opposition that softened some language. Under the broader UN framework, governments are supposed to reduce such incentives by at least $500 billion annually by 2030.

Satirical cartoon of a UN biodiversity summit promoting global control of land, resources, and funding, with officials surrounded by maps, money, and paperwork.
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From CFACT

By Alex Newman

Panel discussion at the UN Biodiversity Conference COP17 in Yerevan, Armenia, with five speakers seated on stage.

YEREVAN, ARMENIA — Private property rights, free markets, access to resources, and national sovereignty suffered another series of blows at the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity’s 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17). In Armenia’s capital, bureaucrats and tax-funded activists advanced an agenda extending far beyond protecting endangered species: expanding international influence over land, financial resources, and economic activity.

The headline outcome was the so-called “Yerevan Pathway,” a response to the first Global Review of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Expressing “deep concern” that the UN’s 2030 targets are at risk, the agreement calls for accelerating implementation, reforming subsidies deemed harmful to nature, mobilizing additional funding, and aligning national economic decisions with biodiversity objectives.

In practice, the measures represent another step toward subordinating private property, free markets, and national sovereignty to UN-approved priorities.

Americans Join UN Push—Without US Ratification

COP17 President Hambardzum Matevosyan, Armenia’s environment minister, acknowledged the agenda’s sweeping implications. “Our work here in Yerevan can influence how natural resources are used, how goods are produced and consumed, and where public and private financial resources are directed,” he said. Biodiversity policy, he added, “should extend beyond the purview of environment ministries” into finance, agriculture, and economic development.

In an interview with CFACT, Matevosyan celebrated the participation of American officials, NGOs, and financial institutions, despite the United States never ratifying the underlying treaty. “We are pleased to see so many delegates from the United States,” he said.

Indeed, the UN’s controversial “30 by 30” agenda has already made significant inroads in America. In 2021, then-President Joe Biden signed Executive Order 14008, directing federal agencies to develop a strategy to conserve 30 percent of U.S. lands and waters by 2030. California adopted the same target under Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom, later enshrining it in state law.

While UN biodiversity agreements do not bind America, their objectives can be advanced through domestic legislation, executive actions, and land-use restrictions. President Donald Trump revoked Biden’s order in 2025, but California’s program and other schemes across America continue to advance.

CBD Executive Secretary Astrid Schomaker told CFACT that a small federal delegation attended alongside roughly 70 participants from California. Expressing hope that Washington would eventually join the treaty, she said the UN was engaging with Americans “as much as we can.”

Money, Subsidies, and Central Planning

The Yerevan Pathway retains the push to eliminate, phase out, or reform incentives deemed “harmful to biodiversity,” despite opposition that softened some language. Under the broader UN framework, governments are supposed to reduce such incentives by at least $500 billion annually by 2030.

Critics warn that the definitions could encompass subsidies or incentives affecting conventional agriculture, fertilizer, fossil fuels, and other productive activities. The result would be greater government influence over where capital flows and which industries prosper.

Nearly $2 billion in funding pledges were announced at COP17, largely from governments and publicly funded institutions. But that represents only a fraction of the hundreds of billions the UN says will be required.

Another mechanism is the Cali Fund for Digital Sequence Information, established at COP16. The arrangement seeks financial contributions from companies commercially benefiting from genetic information derived from plants, animals, and other organisms, including applications involving synthetic biology. Those funds would then be distributed through a global slush fund.

Despite the marketing slogans, these arrangements represent an expanding system of global economic planning, with international bureaucracies exercising growing influence over private enterprise, capital allocation, and national budgets.

Indigenous Groups Gain Influence

The summit also advanced the formal role of indigenous organizations within the UN biodiversity apparatus. Under the Sevan Guidelines, a permanent committee will provide indigenous representatives an ongoing role in the process, including a co-chair nominated through an indigenous selection mechanism rather than by a national government.

The UN is also promoting greater reliance on “traditional knowledge”—much of it overtly pagan in nature—in conservation and management of genetic resources.

Religious elements were prominent at the summit. Prayers invoking river deities and forest gods could be heard, while one indigenous participant interviewed by CFACT described his tradition teaching that people originated from the sea.

The institutional implications extend beyond religious practices. Nongovernmental organizations representing indigenous interests are acquiring a more formal role in shaping international biodiversity policy, raising questions about representation, accountability, and national sovereignty.

Expanding Global Oversight

COP17 also strengthened mechanisms for monitoring governments’ progress toward UN biodiversity targets. A new expert group was established to support reporting and review, with the Global Environment Facility asked to finance related work.

The decisions further encourage governments to integrate biodiversity objectives into economic planning at every level, including state, provincial, municipal, and private-sector activities.

Negotiators also advanced work involving synthetic biology, invasive species, wildlife management, and the integration of biodiversity with climate policy through so-called “nature-based solutions.”

Together, these measures expand the international framework for influencing decisions traditionally made by national governments, local communities, and private property owners.

The Bigger Picture

The agenda has been advancing for decades. The UN’s 1976 Vancouver Declaration criticized private landownership as a contributor to wealth concentration and called for stronger public control over land use. Today’s biodiversity initiatives continue raising fundamental questions about who should control land and natural resources.

The immediate target remains conserving 30 percent of the planet’s land and waters by 2030. But the broader ambitions extend into agriculture, industry, finance, and virtually every sector of economic activity.

Not everything went according to plan in Yerevan. Negotiators softened some proposals, while the Cali Fund remains far short of its financial ambitions. Nevertheless, COP17 advanced additional mechanisms for international oversight, financial mobilization, and influence over domestic economic policy.

For Americans, the stakes are especially high. The United States never ratified the Convention on Biological Diversity, yet policies promoted under its auspices continue finding their way into American government programs.

Whether decisions about land, resources, and economic activity remain with free people, property owners, and their elected representatives—or increasingly fall under the influence of unelected international bureaucracies—is a question that cannot be ignored. Defending self-government begins with understanding the threat.

Featured image UN publicity photo

Giant Ancient Canyons, Carved by Sea-Level Swings, Preserved Earth’s Earliest Complex Life

Geologists from the University of Adelaide (led by Dr. Karol Faehnrich), with colleagues from the South Australian Museum, University of California, and Pomona College, found evidence that dramatic sea- level changes carved large submarine canyons in South Australia’s Flinders Ranges during the late Ediacaran Period (~635- 538.8 million years ago).

Illustration of the Ediacaran Canyon System, showing an ancient submarine canyon with rocky walls, microbial seafloor mats, and Ediacaran fossils.
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Geologists from the University of Adelaide (led by Dr. Karol Faehnrich), with colleagues from the South Australian Museum, University of California, and Pomona College, found evidence that dramatic sea- level changes carved large submarine canyons in South Australia’s Flinders Ranges during the late Ediacaran Period (~635- 538.8 million years ago).

These changes helped create the conditions that preserved some of the earliest complex (soft- bodied) life on Earth, the Ediacaran biota.

The study, published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters (DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120285), mapped rock formations across the Flinders Ranges, including Nilpena Ediacara National Park. Researchers identified vast, southeast- oriented canyons up to 280 meters (919 feet) deep and more than 6 kilometers (3.7 miles) wide.

These were largely formed by underwater erosion during a significant sea- level fall (with some possible initial subaerial erosion before submergence). As sea levels later rose, the landscape flooded and sediments filled the canyons, depositing the fossil- rich Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite.

This process created a “window of exceptional preservation” for delicate impressions of soft- bodied organisms that lived before the Cambrian explosion of animal diversity.

The canyons’ shapes, sediment fills, and comparison to modern submarine canyons support underwater erosion (via powerful flows) over purely river-driven processes, which would have required extreme sea- level drops or land uplift. The canyons generally widen and deepen southeastward.

Faehnrich noted that more than half a billion years ago the South Australian landscape looked very different, with these canyons cutting the continental shelf before rapid flooding enabled the rich fossil deposits.

Co- author Associate Professor Diego Garcia- Bellido emphasized that sea-level rise was key to the right environmental conditions for preserving these soft- bodied fossils.

This builds on the Flinders Ranges’ fame for Ediacaran fossils and clarifies the landscape and depositional history beneath them. The findings were released around November 9, 2026, by the University of Adelaide.

Annotated outcrop showing canyon edge and canyon infill in Bonney Sandstone, Nilpena
Field photographs of the Ediacara Member at Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP). Credit: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2027). DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120285

No precise absolute (eustatic) sea- level value, such as meters relative to modern sea level, is reported for the late Ediacaran interval in the Faehnrich et al. study or related public summaries.

Absolute global sea- level reconstructions from ~550- 560 million years ago are inherently uncertain because of limited proxies, tectonic overprints, and basin- specific effects.

What the research does establish is a clear relative sea- level history tied to the formation of the canyons and the Ediacara Member in South Australia’s Flinders Ranges:

  • A significant relative sea- level fall occurred first. This lowered base level enough for large, southeast-oriented canyons (up to ~280 m deep and >6 km wide) to be carved primarily by underwater (submarine) erosion across the continental shelf. Some limited initial subaerial erosion is possible in places before the features were fully submerged. A purely river- driven (fluvial) origin would have required an even larger relative fall or substantial tectonic uplift, which the authors consider less likely based on canyon morphology, sediment fills, and comparisons to modern submarine canyons.
  • This was followed by a relative sea- level rise (transgression and flooding). Seawater inundated the landscape, the canyons were filled with sediment, and the fossil- rich Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite was deposited. This created the window of exceptional soft-bodied fossil preservation.

The ~280 m figure refers to the maximum observed depth and relief of the ancient canyons themselves, not the exact magnitude of the eustatic (global) sea-level change. Older studies of the same region have noted comparable scales of incision (hundreds of meters of relief) at the base of or within the Ediacara Member / Rawnsley Quartzite succession.

In short, sea level was fluctuating dramatically on a regional- to- basinal, scale, falling enough to drive major canyon incision, then rising to flood and fill those canyons, during the late Ediacaran (~635- 538.8 Ma, with the key fossil-bearing interval often placed around ~555 Ma by correlation). Global eustatic estimates for this time remain model- dependent and are not quantified in the new paper’s available summaries.

Geological map showing rock units, unconformities, faults, measured sections, fossil localities, and locations including Mount Michael and Mickey Ridge.
Geological map of the fossiliferous area of the Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP) with marked excavation sites and fossil localities. Credit: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2027). DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120285

Submarine canyons and sea- level fluctuations in the late Ediacaran: evidence from the Ediacara Member, South Australia

Geologists mapped rock formations in South Australia’s Flinders Ranges (including Nilpena Ediacara National Park). They documented vast, southeast-oriented submarine canyons cut into the continental shelf during the late Ediacaran Period (~635- 538.8 million years ago). These reach depths of up to ~280 m and widths >6 km.

Formation is attributed mainly to underwater (submarine) erosion during a significant sea- level fall, with possible limited initial subaerial erosion in places. Subsequent sea- level rise flooded the canyons; sediments then filled them and deposited the fossil- rich Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite. This created favorable conditions for the exceptional preservation of soft- bodied Ediacaran biota (delicate impressions of some of Earth’s earliest complex life).

Canyon morphology, sediment fills (including evidence of powerful underwater flows, rip- up clasts, loading structures, etc.), and comparisons to modern submarine canyons support this interpretation over purely fluvial, river-incised models (which would require extreme relative sea- level falls or major tectonic uplift). Canyon size generally increases southeastward.

The work clarifies the paleo- landscape and depositional setting beneath one of the world’s richest Ediacaran fossil deposits and highlights the role of sea- level fluctuations in creating a “window of exceptional preservation.”⁠

The full text on ScienceDirect is typically behind a paywall/institutional access. Public summaries and the University of Adelaide / phys.org coverage provide the main results and context. Related figures in the press materials show field photos of canyon edges, facies (e.g., CSSB, FLS, ORS), rip- up clasts, and geological maps of Nilpena sites.

If you have access to the full PDF or specific sections (methods, figures, data), I can help analyze or discuss them in more detail.

Title: Submarine canyons and sea- level fluctuations in the late Ediacaran: evidence from the Ediacara Member, South Australia

Annotated outcrop showing wave-rippled sandstone and canyon infill in the Brachina area
Field photographs of the Ediacara Member in the central Flinders Ranges. Credit: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (2027). DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120285

Journal: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, (2027)

Date: January 2027

Provided: University of Adelaide

Authors: Karol Faehnrich a, Diego C. García-Bellido ab, Mary L. Droser c, James G. Gehling b, Robert R. Gaines d

aCollege of Sciences, Adelaide University, North Terrace, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

bEarth & Biological Sciences, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

cDepartment of Earth & Planetary Sciences, University of California at Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA

dGeology Department, Pomona College, Claremont, CA, USA

Abstract

The rise and diversification of metazoans in the late Ediacaran have been linked to global sea-level changes. However, the regional record of these changes remains ambiguous. Here, we investigate the origin of an unconformity at the base of the Ediacara Member in South Australia that hosts one of the most diverse assemblages of the Ediacara Biota. The unconformity is traceable throughout the Flinders Ranges, creating deep southeast-oriented valleys reaching 280 m in depth and more than 6 km in width. The base of their infill is marked by rip-up clast breccias overlain by gravity-flow deposits interbedded with deep-water siltstone. The succession shallows upward and is capped by wave-reworked sediments that are correlative throughout the basin. We propose that this basal unconformity formed through the propagation of shelf-incising submarine canyons, potentially during a global low stand. A significant transgression led to their infill and deposition of the Ediacara Member, allowing preservation of the diverse assemblage of the Ediacara Biota.

Empty Quarter vs. Sahara vs. Sahel: How the World’s Greatest Drylands Compare

Rub’ al Khali (Arabic: ٱلرُّبْع ٱلْخَالِي, meaning “Empty Quarter”) is the world’s largest continuous sand desert (erg or sand sea). It forms the southern third of the Arabian Peninsula and is the largest portion of the broader Arabian Desert.

Comparison graphic showing the Empty Quarter's sand dunes, the Sahara's rocky desert and mountains, and the Sahel's dry savanna trees, titled "Empty Quarter vs. Sahara vs. Sahel."
AI generated by Grok

Rub’ al Khali (Arabic: ٱلرُّبْع ٱلْخَالِي, meaning “Empty Quarter”) is the world’s largest continuous sand desert (erg or sand sea). It forms the southern third of the Arabian Peninsula and is the largest portion of the broader Arabian Desert.

Key Facts

  • Area: Approximately 650,000 km² (250,000 sq mi), roughly the size of France or larger than Texas. Estimates range from about 560,000– 660,000 km² depending on boundary definitions.⁠
  • Dimensions: About 1,000 km (620 mi) long and up to 500 km (310 mi) wide.
  • Location: Primarily in southeastern Saudi Arabia (the bulk of it), with smaller portions in Yemen, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Approximate coordinates: 16.5°– 23.0°N, 44.5°– 56.5°E.⁠
  • Elevation: Ranges from around 800 m (2,600 ft) in the southwest to near sea level in the northeast.

The landscape consists mainly of vast ergs with sand dunes reaching up to 250 m (820 ft) high (some sources note higher peaks in places), interspersed with gravel plains, gypsum flats, and sabkhas (salt flats). The sand is typically reddish-orange due to feldspar.⁠

It is one of the driest (hyper- arid) regions on Earth, with annual rainfall generally under 35 mm (often near zero in parts). Daytime summer temperatures can exceed 50°C (122°F), while winter nights can drop near or below freezing.

The region was wetter during Pleistocene and Holocene “Green Arabia” phases, with temporary lakes and grasslands (evidence of lakes dating roughly 122,000– 67,000 years ago and more recent ones around 6,000– 5,000 and 3,000–2,000 years ago).

Recent research (including a 2023 survey published in Nature in 2026) found abundant ancient lake deposits but virtually no stone tools or other clear signs of sustained early human occupation in the interior, likely because suitable knappable stone for tools was scarce there, even when water was available. Occupation evidence is concentrated at the desert margins.⁠

It remained largely unexplored by outsiders until the 20th century. Notable crossings include those by Bertram Thomas and St John Philby (early 1930s) and Wilfred Thesiger (late 1940s, detailed in Arabian Sands). Modern expeditions continue, including scientific surveys and unsupported foot crossings. A road linking Oman and Saudi Arabia through the desert was completed in 2021.

Despite its emptiness, the desert holds major petroleum reserves. The giant Ghawar oil field (discovered 1948, the world’s largest conventional oil field) extends into its northern edges, and the Shaybah field (discovered 1968) lies in the southeast.⁠

It is virtually uninhabited year- round, though Bedouin tribes (such as the Al Murrah) have traditionally used its fringes. Biodiversity is limited but includes specialized desert species; protected areas like ‘Uruq Bani Ma’arid support oryx, gazelles, and other wildlife.

In short, Rub’ al Khali is a vast, extreme sand sea that has shaped human movement, trade (e.g., ancient frankincense routes), and modern energy resources on the Arabian Peninsula.

Map of the Arabian Peninsula showing a highlighted orange region across central and southern Saudi Arabia.
By Rub-al-Ĥalo.png: ThomasPuschCoasts & border: Natural Earth (EPSG: 4326)derivative work: rowanwindwhistler (talk) – Rub-al-Ĥalo.png, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=66419590

Green Arabia refers to recurrent humid (wet) climatic phases in the Arabian Peninsula’s past, when the now hyper- arid deserts, including the Rub’ al Khali (Empty Quarter), transformed into much greener, more hospitable landscapes with grasslands, savannahs, rivers, lakes, and wetlands.⁠

These episodes were driven primarily by intensified African and Indian Ocean monsoons, linked to orbital variations (e.g., peaks in northern hemisphere summer insolation) that shifted rainfall northward into the region. They occurred repeatedly over millions of years, interrupting long arid periods.

Timescale and Evidence

  • Long- term record: Speleothem (stalagmite/stalactite) studies from caves in central Saudi Arabia document multiple humid phases spanning the past ~8 million years (from the Late Miocene onward). These ranged from tens of thousands to over a million years in duration, with precipitation generally decreasing and becoming more variable over time.⁠
  • Pleistocene examples: Notable wetter intervals occurred around 480,000–10,000 years ago (with roughly 10 distinct phases in the last 500,000 years), including major ones near ~125,000 years ago (last interglacial), ~80,000, and others. Lake deposits in the Rub’ al Khali, for instance, date to approximately 122,000– 67,000 years ago.⁠
  • Holocene (more recent) phase: A well- documented wet period lasted roughly 11,000– 5,500 years ago (peaking around 9,000 years ago). This supported large lakes (one estimated at ~1,100 km² and up to 42 m deep in the Empty Quarter) and river systems; flooding from one lake carved a ~150 km- long valley. Aridity intensified after ~6,000– 5,500 years ago.⁠

Evidence includes paleolake sediments, river deposits, fossil remains (e.g., hippos, crocodiles, elephants, and other water-dependent fauna), pollen/vegetation traces, and archaeological sites with stone tools often associated with these wetter windows.

These phases turned Arabia into a “green corridor” or crossroads facilitating animal migrations and hominin (early human) dispersals out of Africa into Eurasia.

Hominin occupation pulses often align with wetter periods, though recent research notes that factors like the availability of suitable stone for tools also constrained settlement, even when water was present. Population models suggest substantially higher hominin densities during green phases compared to arid ones.⁠

In short, “Green Arabia” describes the episodic transformation of the Arabian deserts into productive savannah- like environments, fundamentally reshaping the region’s role in biogeography and human prehistory. The concept is supported by ongoing multidisciplinary work (geology, archaeology, paleoclimatology), including the Green Arabia Project.

Lone tree amid rippled orange desert dunes with rugged mountains in the background
Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain
Study reveals 8 million years of ‘Green Arabia’

Here’s a clear comparison of the Rub’ al Khali (Empty Quarter), the Sahara, and the Sahel.

Quick Overview Table

FeatureRub’ al KhaliSaharaSahel
TypeHyper- arid sand desert (erg and sand sea)Largest hot desert overallSemi- arid transitional zone (savanna, steppe)
Area~650,000 km²~9.2 million km²~3.05 million km²
LocationSouthern Arabian Peninsula (mainly Saudi Arabia and UAE, Oman, Yemen)North Africa (11 countries from Atlantic to Red Sea)Belt south of the Sahara (Atlantic to Red Sea)
TerrainAlmost continuous sand dunes (up to 250– 330 m high), gravel plains, salt flats (sabkhas)Only 15– 25% sand dunes; mostly rocky plateaus (hamada), gravel plains (reg), mountains, depressionsGrasslands, thorn shrublands, savanna; relatively flat
Climate and RainfallHyper- arid; usually <35 mm/year (often near zero)Hyper- arid to arid; often <25–100 mm/yearSemi- arid; 100–600 and more mm/year (short rainy season)
TemperaturesExtremely hot summers (often >50°C); cold nights possibleExtremely hot summers (can exceed 50°C); large day-night swingsHot year- round; less extreme than pure deserts
Human PresenceVirtually uninhabitedSparse (~2.5 million people, mostly in oases and nomadic)Relatively dense (tens of millions); pastoralism and farming
Vegetation and LifeVery sparse (specialized desert plants, rodents, scorpions, etc.)Sparse but more varied than Rub’ al Khali in placesGrass, acacias, baobabs; supports livestock and wildlife
Key ResourcesMajor oil & gas fields (e.g., Ghawar, Shaybah)Oil, minerals, some groundwater and oasesAgriculture, livestock; vulnerable to desertification
PaleoclimateExperienced “Green Arabia” wet phasesExperienced “Green Sahara” wet phasesExpanded and contracted with Sahara humidity changes

Key Differences

1. Scale and Continuity of Sand

  • The Sahara is by far the largest overall (roughly 14 times the size of Rub’ al Khali).
  • However, Rub’ al Khali is the world’s largest continuous sand sea (erg). The Sahara’s sand dunes are fragmented and cover only a minority of its surface. Most of the Sahara is rocky or gravelly.

2. Aridity and Harshness

  • Rub’ al Khali and the central Sahara are both hyper- arid extremes. The Empty Quarter is often described as one of the most uniformly empty and inhospitable places on Earth.
  • The Sahel is significantly wetter and more productive, it is the transitional “shore” (the Arabic meaning of Sahel) between true desert and the greener Sudanian savannas farther south.

3. Human Habitation and Use

  • Rub’ al Khali: Essentially empty of permanent settlement.
  • Sahara: Sparse populations concentrated around oases, trade routes, and mineral- and oil areas; traditional nomadic groups (e.g., Tuareg, Bedouin).
  • Sahel: Home to large populations who practice mixed farming and pastoralism. It is one of the regions most affected by drought, desertification, and climate variability.

4. Landscape Character

  • Rub’ al Khali feels like an endless ocean of dunes.
  • Sahara is far more diverse (dunes, mountains, vast rocky plains and the Nile corridor).
  • Sahel looks more like dry grassland or open wooded savanna rather than classic “desert.”

5. Paleoclimate Parallel

Both the Sahara and Rub’ al Khali experienced dramatic “green” phases (Green Sahara and Green Arabia) during wetter periods in the past, when lakes, rivers, and grasslands supported more life and human movement. The Sahel expanded and contracted in response to those same climatic shifts.


Summary

  • Sahara is the giant, varied hot desert of Africa.
  • Rub’ al Khali is the purest, largest continuous sea of sand on Earth (smaller but more uniformly sandy and empty).
  • Sahel is the semi- arid buffer zone south of the Sahara that supports far more human activity and vegetation.

In short: the Sahara wins on sheer size and diversity, the Rub’ al Khali on continuous sand emptiness, and the Sahel on relative habitability.

Climate Home Briefs COP31. Almost Certain Overshoot, a Climate Midterm and Turkey’s Electric Fog

COP31 opens Monday in Antalya, Turkey, and runs through November 20. Climate Home News has published its pre-summit briefing. The first two paragraphs set the frame.

Editorial cartoon about COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey, featuring a global temperature overshoot monitor, climate midterm exam, and electric fog warning.
AI generated by Mata

From Watts Up With That?

By Charles Rotter

COP31 opens Monday in Antalya, Turkey, and runs through November 20. Climate Home News has published its pre-summit briefing. The first two paragraphs set the frame.

This is the first COP to be staring an almost certain overshoot of the 1.5C warming limit in the face, even as countries squabble over when the next UN science reports should be delivered.

The geopolitical mood ahead of the annual talks, from November 9-20, has been sweetened somewhat by Lula’s surprise re-election in Brazil and American voters delivering a thumbs down to climate change-sceptic Donald Trump in the US midterms this week.

COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?

On the temperature claim, the Paris Agreement talks about a long-term global average, not a single warm year. Copernicus Climate Change Service puts the current global surface warming level at about 1.4°C above 1850–1900 by the end of 2025, and notes that one or two years above 1.5°C do not mean the Paris level has been breached. 2024 was the warmest year in their record, at about 1.55°C; 2025 came in at 1.47°C. The United Nations itself says the same thing: monthly and annual breaches are not a failure of the Paris temperature goal. What UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 actually says is that, on current policies and pledges, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C is “very likely within the next decade.” That is a scenario projection about national climate plans. Climate Home’s “almost certain” and “staring… in the face” treat that scenario projection as if it were already settled fact.

The midterms are thinner still. Democrats took the House and the Senate on Tuesday, a repudiation of President Trump with him still in the White House. The Associated Press named the drivers as high prices, the Iran war and concerns over government corruption. Climate Home upgrades that into “a thumbs down to climate change-sceptic Donald Trump.” Divided government may slow some of Trump’s energy rollbacks, but it is just not a climate referendum.

Close-up of intertwined fabric ribbons printed with the COP 27 climate conference logo and text
COP31 lanyards at the Antalya venue. Photo: UNFCCC / Kiara Worth, via Climate Home News.

The host’s flagship is electrification. Turkey wants governments to sign a voluntary pledge to raise electricity’s share of final energy consumption to 35% globally by 2035. Climate Home reports, correctly, that the text talks about “diverse and sustainable energy sources” and stops short of requiring that the new load be clean power. President Murat Kurum says wider electrification will “automatically” cut fossil use; campaigners disagree. Let’s take a close look at the country writing the pledge. Turkey’s own energy ministry says 2025 generation was 33.3% coal, 22.3% natural gas, 15.7% hydropower, 10.8% wind and 11.9% solar, with geothermal and other sources making up the rest. Ember puts fossil generation near 57% of the mix. The pledge is about more electricity without naming the fuel, from a host that still runs a third of its power on coal.

The rest of the briefing is the usual COP inventory: a voluntary fossil-fuel “roadmap” from Belém that Brazil says need not be negotiated; a mitigation work programme that barely functions because Saudi Arabia, Russia and others prefer it that way; an IPCC fight over when AR7 arrives for the 2028 Global Stocktake; adaptation finance that still has no agreed baseline for last year’s “triple by 2035” promise; China wanting to talk trade measures that get in the way of its cleantech exports. The EU, Climate Home notes, is “coming empty-handed” on new money. Leaders’ speaking slots look thin, with India and China not sending their top men. In Climate Home’s telling, Antalya is where 1.5°C is finally admitted lost, and an American cost-of-living election counts as a verdict on climate policy.

COP31 starts Monday. The pledges will be announced and the cover decision will be argued over, and the long-term temperature series will be updated the same way it always is, after the fact.

===== Source: Climate Home News, “COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?”, 5 Nov 2026, https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/11/05/cop31-briefing-what-to-expect-from-the-antalya-climate-summit/

Featured image: COP31 Antalya lanyards. Photo: UNFCCC / Kiara Worth, via Climate Home News; headline text added.

Tiny Crystals Reveal When Magma Is Ready to Erupt

University of Queensland researchers have identified a chemical signature in tiny plagioclase crystals that signals when magma is ready to erupt.

Magma crystallization is the process by which molten rock (magma) cools and solidifies into solid minerals (crystals), eventually forming igneous rock.

Researchers analysed thin sections of 28 representative rocks from seven volcanoes plus two ancient super- eruptions using microscopy and laser-based chemical mapping. Similar microcryst signatures appear more widely around the Ring of Fire, pointing to a common triggering process.

Infographic showing plagioclase crystals over an erupting volcano, with text explaining how tiny crystals reveal magma pressure, temperature, and melt composition before eruption.
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University of Queensland researchers have identified a chemical signature in tiny plagioclase crystals that signals when magma is ready to erupt.

PhD candidate Daniela Parra- Encalada (School of the Environment) and senior author Associate Professor Teresa Ubide led the work, published in Nature Communications.

They studied plagioclase, a common white mineral that grows in magma a few kilometres below the surface and responds to changes in temperature, water content, and composition, from Andean volcanoes in Chile and Argentina (across a ~230 km stretch) spanning different ages, eruptive styles, and activity levels.

⁠Key findings

  • The smallest, newest crystals (microcrysts, roughly the width of a human hair) that form in the final stages before eruption share a consistent chemical signature across the studied volcanoes and other Pacific Ring of Fire datasets.
  • Modelling links this signature to hot, deeper magma injecting into a shallower reservoir. This destabilises the volcanic plumbing system and can trigger eruption.
  • The team named the geochemical pattern the “plagioclase eruptibility field”.
  • Earlier-formed plagioclase with lower calcium content often records non-eruptible magma that is cooling and accumulating in the crust (relevant for metal enrichment, such as copper and gold, and only rarely involved in super-eruptions).⁠

Researchers analysed thin sections of 28 representative rocks from seven volcanoes plus two ancient super- eruptions using microscopy and laser-based chemical mapping. Similar microcryst signatures appear more widely around the Ring of Fire, pointing to a common triggering process.⁠

This crystal “fingerprint” could help identify volcanoes (including seemingly quiet ones) that merit closer monitoring because their magma systems show signs of eruptibility. Future work will test whether the pattern holds in oceanic volcanoes and explore links to critical-mineral accumulation.⁠

Plagioclase acts like a recorder of a volcano’s recent history because its composition and zoning (growth layers) change with magmatic conditions.

Focusing on the tiniest crystals isolates the final pre- eruption stage more clearly than bulk- rock chemistry.

Black terrazzo surface with colorful recycled glass and stone fragments
A thin section of volcanic rock under the microscope, showing the white plagioclase crystals of varying sizes. This rock is from Cerro Tuzgle, a dormant volcano in northwestern Argentina. Credit: The University of Queensland

Magma crystallization is the process by which molten rock (magma) cools and solidifies into solid minerals (crystals), eventually forming igneous rock.

1. What is magma?

Magma is a hot, mobile mixture of:

  • Liquid silicate melt (the dominant component)
  • Suspended crystals
  • Dissolved gases (mainly water vapor, CO₂, sulfur gases)
  • Sometimes solid rock fragments

Temperatures typically range from ~700 °C (rhyolitic, silicic magma) to >1200 °C (basaltic and mafic magma).

2. How crystallization begins

Crystallization starts when the temperature drops below the liquidus (the temperature at which the first crystals begin to form). As cooling continues, the magma moves toward the solidus (the temperature at which it becomes completely solid).

The process involves two main stages:

  • Nucleation: Tiny clusters of atoms arrange into stable crystal “seeds.”
  • Crystal growth: Atoms attach to these seeds, causing crystals to enlarge.

3. Sequence of crystallization (Bowen’s Reaction Series)

Minerals do not all form at once. They crystallize in a predictable order based on temperature and composition:

Discontinuous series (mafic minerals):
Olivine → Pyroxene → Amphibole → Biotite mica

Continuous series (plagioclase feldspar):
Calcium- rich plagioclase (high anorthite, An-rich) → progressively more sodium -rich plagioclase (lower An)

Later- forming minerals (lower temperature):
Potassium feldspar, muscovite mica, and quartz.

This is why volcanic rocks often contain a mix of early- formed (larger, sometimes resorbed) crystals and late- formed microcrysts.

4. Key factors that control crystallization

  • Cooling rate: Slow cooling (deep underground) produces large crystals (phaneritic texture, e.g., granite). Fast cooling (eruption at the surface) produces small crystals or glass (aphanitic or glassy texture, e.g., basalt or obsidian).
  • Composition: Higher silica content raises viscosity and lowers crystallization temperature.
  • Pressure: Higher pressure generally raises melting points; decompression can trigger crystallization.
  • Water and volatiles: Dissolved water lowers the melting temperature and can suppress or promote certain minerals (e.g., plagioclase stability expands as magma degasses near the surface).
  • Magma mixing and recharge: Injection of hotter, more mafic magma can dissolve existing crystals or cause new ones to grow with different compositions (producing zoning).

5. Crystal zoning and records of history

Crystals often grow in layers (like tree rings). Changes in temperature, pressure, water content, or melt composition produce compositional zoning.
In plagioclase, for example, the anorthite (Ca) content decreases as the melt evolves or increases when hotter mafic magma recharges the system. These zones preserve a detailed timeline of magma conditions, exactly the “crystal records” used in the recent research on eruptibility.

6. Final outcomes

  • If magma fully crystallizes underground → intrusive (plutonic) rock.
  • If it erupts before full crystallization → volcanic (extrusive) rock containing a mixture of phenocrysts (early crystals), microcrysts (late crystals formed during ascent), and groundmass (fine crystals or glass).

In short, magma crystallization is a progressive, temperature- and composition- driven process that turns liquid melt into a solid crystalline rock, while recording the physical and chemical history of the magma system in the crystals themselves.

Crystal records of erupted vs. trapped magma in volcanic arcs

Arc andesites form by mixing of mafic and silicic magmas. The silicic end-member is hard to constrain because it is underrepresented in erupted products.

Using textural, elemental, and isotopic records in plagioclase, the authors distinguish trapped crystal mush from erupted magma. They define the plagioclase eruptibility field, a narrow, recurrent anorthite range (An ≈ 61), that marks the melt that actually erupts across Central Andes volcanoes after mafic recharge.

Recycled plagioclase cargo is dominated by lower- An compositions (An ≈ 43), recording prolonged crystallisation and assimilation in silicic mushes.

The same pattern appears in continental and composite arcs globally, indicating strong eruptive filtering: most felsic and mafic mushes remain dormant and contribute to crustal growth, though felsic mushes can occasionally remobilise to produce super- eruptions.

Key findings

  • Samples: 28 fresh lava and tephra samples from a ~230 km transect in the Central Andes (main-arc and back-arc settings). Includes polygenetic stratovolcanoes (Lascar, Socompa, Tuzgle), monogenetic centres (El Negrillar, Cerro Overo, Back-Arc Monogenetic Volcanism fields), and older flare-up ignimbrites.
  • Plagioclase populations:
    • Microcrysts (small crystals formed from the final erupted melt during ascent/degassing) and phenocryst rims cluster tightly around An 61 ± 7 (labradorite). This is the “plagioclase eruptibility field.”
    • These crystals also show elevated Mg and Fe, consistent with rapid growth from relatively mafic, recharged melt.
    • The broader crystal cargo (cores, mantles, mush fragments, lithics) is dominated by lower-An plagioclase (average ~An 43- 45), recording silicic (rhyolitic) mushes that largely remain trapped.
  • Interpretation: Mafic recharge into shallow reservoirs homogenises and mobilises intermediate (andesitic) melt that can erupt. The eruptibility field is remarkably consistent across volcano ages, styles (effusive/explosive), and tectonic settings in the study area and appears in other arc datasets.
  • Trapped vs. erupted: Most of the crystal cargo records non-eruptible (or rarely eruptible) felsic mush that contributes to crustal growth and can host metal enrichment. Only under special conditions (e.g., flare-ups) do these mushes remobilise for large eruptions.
  • Supporting data include EPMA, LA -Q- ICP- MS elemental mapping, Sr- isotope analyses, and thermodynamic modelling of equilibrium melts.

Broader implications

The plagioclase eruptibility field offers a petrographic and geochemical indicator of magma that is primed for eruption. It helps explain the prevalence of andesites in arcs (selective filtering of intermediate compositions) and highlights the large volume of unerupted mush.

Future work may test the pattern in oceanic arcs and explore links to critical-metal accumulation in trapped mushes.

The full paper (open access) includes detailed figures of crystal textures, compositional distributions, elemental maps, and global comparisons. A PDF download is available on the Nature page.

Journal: Nature Communications, volume 17, Article number: 11203 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-78932-9

Provided: University of Queensland

Published: 09 November 2026

Authors: Daniela Parra-Encalada,
Teresa Ubide,
Gideon Rosenbaum,
Yujin Jegal,
Patricia Larrea,
Emilce Bustos &
Catharine Wang

Abstract

Arc andesites are hybrids generated by mixing of mafic and silicic magmas. The silicic endmember can contribute to crustal growth or trigger explosive eruptions, yet remains difficult to constrain due to limited representation in the erupted record. Here, we show that textural, elemental and isotopic records preserved in plagioclase can distinguish between trapped and erupted crystal mush, thus constraining conditions of magma storage vs. eruption in arc systems. We define the plagioclase eruptibility field, a narrow and recurrent anorthite range (An~61) that represents erupted melt across Central Andes volcanoes upon mafic recharge. The recycled plagioclase cargo is dominantly An~43, recording prolonged crystallisation and assimilation within silicic mushes. This pattern repeats in continental and composite arcs globally, indicating strong eruptive filtering of arc magmas and widespread occurrence of dormant felsic and mafic mushes that, in most cases, contribute to crustal growth; yet exceptionally, felsic mushes can rapidly remobilise to generate super-eruptions.

The Green new caucus goes to Washington

Since 2016 and the first Trump election, many on the left wore “resistance” like a merit badge. It was on yard signs, coffee mugs and cable news graphics.

Yet, after the results of the midterms, that brand has a problem. The “resistance” is headed to Washington.

Illuminated U.S. Capitol dome at sunset beneath dramatic purple clouds
Capitol building at sunset, Capitol Hill, Washington DC. American Congress.

From CFACT

By Larry Behrens

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.”

— H.L. Mencken

Since 2016 and the first Trump election, many on the left wore “resistance” like a merit badge. It was on yard signs, coffee mugs and cable news graphics.

Yet, after the results of the midterms, that brand has a problem. The “resistance” is headed to Washington.

Line up the energy records of the new class and a pattern jumps off the page. Net-zero deadlines imposed by executive order. Pipelines voted down. Oil and gas dismissed as a relic. Hundreds of billions in taxpayer money steered toward the climate movement.

These are the people that will now write the bills and set the hearing schedule. And they’re all in on the Green Agenda…depending on when you asked.

Check the Résumé vs. Their Recent Rhetoric

That’s not a list of politicians auditioning for the moderate wing. They’re angling for a keynote at the next Sunrise Movement rally.

From Green New Deal to “All of the Above”

Then the campaigns started, and the positions changed. Correction: the stated position changed.

El-Sayed not only deleted his 2019 post “I believe in a Green New Deal,” he flip-flopped and said, “Look, I’m not going to defend the Green New Deal.”

In 2022, Talarico said, “Fossil fuels are destroying the planet.” By September, his campaign was assuring Texans he “knows how essential oil and gas is to Texas’s economy” and backs an “all-of-the-above” strategy. Talarico now says, “too many people in our party talk about eliminating oil and gas.”

South Carolina’s Annie Andrews ran with the League of Conservation Voters’ endorsement calling her “committed to bold climate action.” A week before the election, she said, “I’m an all-of-the-above approach.”

And Hamilton, the pastor who preached repentance over beef, campaigned on “all of the above energy production.”

A campaign slogan costs nothing. A Senate vote goes on the permanent record, and the American public pays the bill

Starting in January, these senators will vote on permits, pipelines, power plant rules and tax credits. Every roll call will show which version showed up for work: the candidate who sounded like a wildcatter in October, or the activist who was there all along.

Nobody Voted for The Green New Deal

The exit polls back that up. In NBC’s exit poll, the economy was the top issue at 39%, followed by the state of democracy and immigration. Climate didn’t make the top three.

The election isn’t a permission slip for green mandates that taxpayers will be paying off long after this Congress is gone. After all, North Carolina knows how that goes.

Under Governor Roy Cooper, state and local governments pledged more than $1.2 billion in incentives for an electric vehicle plant. The 7,500 promised jobs shrank to about 1,400 while the opening slid to 2028. Earlier this year, the state sued to take back the land. Lawmakers in both parties signed off, but taxpayers are the ones left holding an empty lot.

The Shoe Is on the Other Foot

For years, Democrats described standing up to the people in charge was the highest form of patriotism.

Every time this caucus pushes a rule that raises a power bill, they should hear about it. Every time a pipeline permit stalls, the Kansas rancher and the Texas trucker deserve to know whose desk it’s sitting on.

China isn’t waiting on Senate hearings. It’s building coal plants faster than any nation on earth, and every kilowatt America refuses to make is one Beijing is glad to supply.

Voters gave the keys to the Senate, not a blank check for the Green New Deal.

For years, these former outsiders spent all their time “resisting.” Now, they will get to see how they like being resisted.

This article originally appeared at Real Clear Energy

Radiocarbon Dating Reveals Hidden Earthquake Layers in Japan’s Seafloor Sediments

Researchers at the University of Tokyo used high- resolution radiocarbon analysis of a marine sediment core from the Kumano Sea (off the southeast coast of central Japan) to detect previously invisible “hidden” traces of submarine landslides, likely triggered by earthquakes in the Nankai Trough.

The authors applied continuous, high- resolution radiocarbon dating of total organic carbon (¹⁴C TOC) at 0.5- 1.0 cm intervals to a 40 cm hemipelagic sediment core (KT- 12- 34- MC01) from the western Kumano Trough (2080 m water depth, off the Kii Peninsula, Nankai Trough region).

Infographic showing a deep-sea sediment core study in Japan’s Kumano Sea, radiocarbon age-depth dating, laboratory analysis, and the tectonic setting of the Kii Peninsula and Nankai Trough.
AI generated by Grok

Researchers at the University of Tokyo used high- resolution radiocarbon analysis of a marine sediment core from the Kumano Sea (off the southeast coast of central Japan) to detect previously invisible “hidden” traces of submarine landslides, likely triggered by earthquakes in the Nankai Trough.

The Nankai Trough is a major subduction zone where Japan’s next megaquake is anticipated (possibly within the next few decades). Conventional methods, visual inspection, X- ray, and CT imaging, showed the ~40 cm core as largely homogeneous fine- grained hemipelagic mud (clayey silt), with no clear event layers.⁠

Using an ultrasensitive radiocarbon (carbon- 14) method on total organic carbon at high resolution (0.5- 1.0 cm intervals), the team identified abrupt shifts: older organic carbon mixed into younger sediment layers.

These were interpreted as redeposited material from seafloor disturbance (submarine landslides or related events possibly linked to earthquakes, floods, or storms). The layers were chemically and structurally indistinguishable from surrounding sediment, which is why they were invisible to prior techniques.⁠

The oldest part of the core dates to approximately 1440 CE (at ~37- 38 cm depth). By converting radiocarbon ages to calendar years (calibrated with foraminifera ages), researchers correlated some events with historical records of submarine earthquakes from the 13th to 20th centuries.⁠

The work is published in Radiocarbon (Omura, Yokoyama, Hirabayashi et al., 2026; DOI: 10.1017/RDC.2026.10255). Lead researcher Professor Yusuke Yokoyama (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute) noted that the approach can help reconstruct a fuller history of geophysical disasters, improving hazard assessment not only for Japan but for other seismically active regions. Further sampling across the Kumano Sea and beyond is planned.⁠

This provides a new tool for paleoseismology by revealing “invisible” event deposits that traditional methods miss.

Map of Japan’s Nankai Trough showing historical earthquake locations, seismic zones, and a sediment core extraction site.
This simplified map shows where the sediment core was extracted, in 2012, from the Kumano Sea off the coast of Japan. Also marked are several historically documented submarine earthquakes known to have occurred in the wider area. Credit: Nicola Burghall 2026

Sequential high- density radiocarbon dating to detect invisible event layers in marine sediments

The authors applied continuous, high- resolution radiocarbon dating of total organic carbon (¹⁴C TOC) at 0.5- 1.0 cm intervals to a 40 cm hemipelagic sediment core (KT- 12- 34- MC01) from the western Kumano Trough (2080 m water depth, off the Kii Peninsula, Nankai Trough region).

The core appears homogeneous (clayey silt) by visual inspection, soft X- ray, and CT imaging, with only subtle brightness variations.⁠

Age reversals, horizons where ¹⁴C TOC ages are older than those of underlying sediment, reveal seven “invisible” event layers caused by remobilization of older seafloor material (submarine slope failures, landslides, likely triggered by earthquakes). These were not detectable by conventional methods.⁠

δ¹³C values (−20 to −22‰) and C/N ratios (~8) indicate a predominantly marine particulate organic carbon source for both normal and event layers, ruling out significant terrestrial (flood- derived) input.

Age model and correlations

  • Planktonic foraminifera ¹⁴C ages (small- scale measurements) provided the true depositional chronology.
  • TOC ages are systematically older (Δage offset of ~700– 1100 years); these offsets were calibrated using coeval foraminifera- TOC pairs.
  • The core spans roughly the last 600 years (oldest material ~1440 CE).
  • Calibrated event layers correlate with historical Nankai Trough earthquakes after the 15th century:
    • Layers 1– 2: possible links to 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai or 1854 Ansei Tokai events.
    • Layer 3: 1707 Hoei earthquake.
    • Layers 4– 5: 1707 Hoei or minor events.
    • Layer 6: 1605 Keicho earthquake.

Continuous high- density ¹⁴C TOC dating can detect event deposits within otherwise featureless hemipelagic mud, expanding the paleoseismic record beyond classic turbidites.

The method is particularly useful in regions with sparse foraminifera and supports improved hazard assessment for the Nankai Trough megaquake.⁠

The paper was presented as a selected contribution from the 25th International Radiocarbon Conference (Kraków, 2025).

Journal: Radiocarbon (First View), published online 9 November 2026

DOI: 10.1017/RDC.2026.10255

Provided: University of Tokyo

Authors: Akiko Omura,

Yusuke Yokoyama,

Shoko Hirabayashi,

Yosuke Miyairi and

Juichiro Ashi

Abstract

We present a unique application of radiocarbon measurements on hemipelagic sediments that uses continuous radiocarbon dating of total organic carbon (14CTOC age) to recognize event deposits. The 14CTOC age of sediments is not commonly used for age determination because total organic carbon includes various origins, such as marine, terrestrial, and reworked old fragments. In this study, the 14CTOC ages of some horizons were found to be older than those of the deeper ones through continuous 14CTOC measurements at 0.5- to 1.0-cm intervals. The reversal 14CTOC ages resulted not from the settlement of organic particles from the terrestrial environments, such as floodings, but from the submarine slope failures. Therefore, we can regard the reversal 14CTOC layers as event layers due to geohazards. After reconstruction of the age model using foraminiferal tests obtained from the sediment core used in this study, depositional ages of event layers were identified. Well correlation with historical natural disasters after the 15th century suggest validity of the method proposed by the current study.

Scientific figure showing soft X-ray and CT images of a marine sediment core alongside calibrated radiocarbon dates, total organic carbon profiles, and highlighted foram samples.
The sediment core was previously described as being made up of “homogeneous hemipelagic mud” (fine-grained mud with sediment from the land and ocean). To the naked eye and on X-ray and CT images (a), there do not appear to be any major differences between layers. However, by using radiocarbon dating (b), the team found multiple layers of deposition from geophysical events, revealing a more complex history. Credit: A. Omura, Y. Yokoyama, S. Hirabayashi et al. 2026/ Radiocarbon

CO₂: The Tiny Gas That Ruled Climate Across Earth’s Supercontinents

The supercontinent cycle itself strongly influenced CO2​ levels through the global carbon cycle: volcanic outgassing and rifting (sources) versus silicate rock weathering and carbon burial (sinks).

Supercontinent assembly often enhanced weathering (especially of mountain belts) and could promote cooler and icehouse conditions if continents were positioned favorably.

When a CO₂ molecule absorbs an infrared photon, it is excited into a higher vibrational state. It quickly collides with neighboring air molecules (mostly N₂ and O₂) and transfers that energy as kinetic energy (heat).

Illustration of Earth from space showing Europe and Asia with glowing blue symbols and red network lines across the continent.
AI generated by Grok

On multi- million- year timescales during the eras of supercontinents, atmospheric CO2​ was a primary long- term driver (the main “control knob”) of Earth’s climate, just as it has been for most of geologic history.

The supercontinent cycle itself strongly influenced CO2​ levels through the global carbon cycle: volcanic outgassing and rifting (sources) versus silicate rock weathering and carbon burial (sinks).

Supercontinent assembly often enhanced weathering (especially of mountain belts) and could promote cooler and icehouse conditions if continents were positioned favorably.

Breakup increased continental rifting and degassing, tending to raise CO2​ and favor warmer greenhouse climates. Continental geography, aridity, solar luminosity (weaker in the deep past), and other factors (e.g., methane in the early Earth) also played roles, so the relationship was never purely one- to- one.

Approximate CO2​ levels

Concentrations are given in parts per million (ppm).

For reference, pre- industrial levels were ~280 ppm;

todays are roughly 420- 430 ppm (about 0.042– 0.043 %).

1 ppm = 1,000 ppb, so 400 ppm = 400,000 ppb.

Pangaea (most recent supercontinent, roughly 335–175 million years ago)

  • Peak of the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (late Carboniferous- early Permian, during assembly): prolonged low levels, typically ~180- 400 ppm (sometimes minima near ~200 ppm). These unusually low values (rare in Earth’s history) helped sustain extensive glaciation.⁠
  • Around 294 Ma: rapid ~4- fold rise that helped end the ice age and shift to warmer conditions.
  • Late Permian: roughly 400- 900 ppm.
  • Early Triassic (still under Pangaea, after the end- Permian extinction): peaked much higher, with estimates of ~2,000- 2,600 ppm (or more in some reconstructions).
  • As Pangaea broke up into the Mesozoic: generally, hundreds to ~1,000- 2,000 ppm during warmer greenhouse intervals.

Older supercontinents (e.g., Rodinia, ~1.1 billion to ~750 million years ago)
Levels were generally higher and far more uncertain because proxies are scarcer. Model estimates during Rodinia– related phases often fall in the range of several hundred to ~1,000- 2,000 and more ppm; breakup is linked to enhanced weathering that drew CO2​ down and contributed to severe “Snowball Earth” glaciations.⁠

Even earlier (Archean- Paleoproterozoic, times of still- older landmass assemblies)
Estimates from paleosols and other proxies commonly range from tens to hundreds of times present atmospheric levels (often thousands to >10,000 ppm, and in some cases much higher). Elevated greenhouse gases (including CO2​) were needed to keep the planet from freezing under a fainter young Sun.⁠

In short, CO2​ concentrations during supercontinent intervals ranged from near modern (or lower) lows during certain icehouse phases of Pangaea up to many times higher (thousands of ppm) in warmer intervals or deeper in the Precambrian.

The long- term balance of the carbon cycle, modulated by the supercontinent cycle, kept CO2​ as a central climate driver across these vast stretches of Earth history. Proxy and model uncertainties grow larger the further back in time one goes.

_______________________________________________

Carbon dioxide drives warming primarily through its molecular structure, which lets it absorb and re- radiate infrared (heat) radiation that Earth emits, even at ~0.04% (roughly 420 ppm) of the atmosphere.

Earth’s surface is warmed by visible sunlight.

It then radiates energy back toward space mainly as infrared (long- wave) radiation. Certain molecules in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases, interact with that infrared.

CO₂ is a linear molecule (O=C=O).

Its vibrational modes (symmetric stretch, asymmetric stretch, and bending) match frequencies in the infrared bands where Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere emit strongly.

When a CO₂ molecule absorbs an infrared photon, it is excited into a higher vibrational state. It quickly collides with neighboring air molecules (mostly N₂ and O₂) and transfers that energy as kinetic energy (heat).

It can also re- emit an infrared photon in a random direction. Some of those photons head back toward the surface and lower atmosphere, slowing the net loss of heat to space.

This is not a permanent “trap” that holds heat forever; it is a continuous absorption and re- emission process that raises the altitude from which infrared radiation finally escapes to space. Because temperature decreases with height in the troposphere, emitting from a colder layer means less energy leaves the planet for a given surface temperature. The surface and lower atmosphere must therefore warm until the outgoing radiation again balances the incoming solar energy.

Why a small concentration still matters

  • Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas by total effect, but its amount is largely controlled by temperature (it is a feedback). CO₂ is a long- lived, well-mixed gas whose concentration is directly raised by human emissions.
  • CO₂ absorbs strongly in the 15 µm band (and has weaker bands elsewhere). Even at low concentration it saturates the core of that band, but the wings of the absorption lines and the upper atmosphere continue to respond, so additional CO₂ still increases radiative forcing.
  • The climate system is sensitive: a few watts per square meter of extra downward infrared flux, sustained over decades, produces measurable global temperature rise.

In short, the “unique atomic structure” description is essentially correct: the geometry and bonding of the CO₂ molecule give it the vibrational frequencies needed to interact with terrestrial infrared radiation. That interaction is what allows a gas present at only 0.04% to exert a measurable influence on Earth’s energy balance.

_______________________________________________

The CO₂ molecule does not “trap” heat like a physical cage or sponge. Instead, it absorbs specific wavelengths of infrared (IR) radiation emitted by Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere, then either transfers that energy to surrounding air molecules or re- emits it in random directions. The net result is that some of the outgoing heat energy is redirected downward, slowing the planet’s cooling to space.

Molecular structure and why it interacts with heat radiation

A CO₂ molecule is linear: an oxygen atom double- bonded to a central carbon atom, which is double- bonded to another oxygen (O=C=O).

This geometry gives it three main vibrational modes:

  • Symmetric stretch (the two oxygens move in and out together), this does not change the molecule’s dipole moment and is infrared- inactive.
  • Asymmetric stretch (one oxygen moves closer while the other moves farther), infrared- active.
  • Bending modes (the molecule flexes at the carbon atom, like a hinge; there are two equivalent planes), strongly infrared- active.

The bending modes are especially important. They absorb strongly near 15 micrometers (≈667 cm⁻¹), a wavelength band where Earth’s surface and troposphere emit a large fraction of their thermal infrared radiation.

Step- by- step process

  1. Absorption
    An infrared photon whose energy matches one of the active vibrational frequencies is absorbed. The molecule jumps to a higher vibrational energy state.
  2. Energy transfer (the main pathway in the dense lower atmosphere)
    Within a tiny fraction of a second, the excited CO₂ molecule collides with a neighboring N₂ or O₂ molecule. The vibrational energy is converted into kinetic energy (faster molecular motion), which is heat. The CO₂ returns to a lower vibrational state, and the surrounding air is slightly warmer.
  3. Re- emission
    The molecule can also spontaneously emit an infrared photon of similar energy. Because emission is isotropic (random direction), roughly half the photons head back toward the surface and lower atmosphere rather than out to space.
  4. Net radiative effect
    By repeatedly absorbing upward- going IR and either thermalizing it or sending some of it back downward, CO₂ raises the average altitude from which IR finally escapes to space. Higher altitudes are colder, so the planet must warm at the surface until the outgoing radiation again balances the incoming solar energy.

Key caveats

  • The process is continuous and dynamic; individual molecules do not hold onto heat indefinitely.
  • At current concentrations (~0.04 % or ~420 ppm), the center of the 15 µm band is already strongly absorbing, but the wings of the absorption lines and the upper atmosphere continue to respond to additional CO₂, so the forcing still increases.
  • Water vapor, methane, and other greenhouse gases work by analogous absorption–re-emission mechanisms, each in their own spectral bands.

In short, the CO₂ molecule’s geometry creates vibrational frequencies that match Earth’s thermal infrared output. Absorption followed by collisional energy transfer or random re- emission is the microscopic mechanism that produces the macroscopic greenhouse effect.

_______________________________________________

Sources:

Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect – NASA Science

Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, but it is not a major driver of global warming – Science Feedback

If CO2 Is Only 0.04% of the Atmosphere, How Does it Drive Global Warming? Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Climate myths: Carbon dioxide isn’t the most important greenhouse gas | New Scientist

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Taking the Measure of the Greenhouse Effect

Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works

Greenhouse gases – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Explaining how the water vapor greenhouse effect works

Relative importance of greenhouse gases in relation to temperature and humidity – Astrophysics Data System

CO2 has regulated Earth’s climate for millions of years

Carbon Dioxide Isn’t What You Think It Is | Scientific American

Continental arc volcanism as the principal driver of icehouse-greenhouse variability | Science

The Supercontinent Cycle – ScienceDirect

News, Politics, Sports, Mail & Latest Headlines – AOL.com

Supercontinent breakup made Earth ready for complex life

The way Earth’s ‘thermostat’ works may have changed during Pangea era, UChicago scientists suggest | University of Chicago News

BINGO — Another billion-dollar industry arrives to feed off “The Climate Crisis”

One thousand million dollars a year, soon to be more, is being sucked out of the Australian economy to pointlessly track carbon emissions. And companies will pay even more than that to hire consultants to calculate the emissions in the first place so the accountants (the ones earning a billion dollars) can check them.

These a billion dollars that isn’t making better widgets, growing food, or curing cancer. Customers will have to pay more for the exact same product.

Satirical cartoon depicting a climate-crisis consulting industry as bingo, with businessmen collecting money labeled profit and a card listing carbon accounting, ESG audits, offsets, and net zero.
AI generated by Meta

From CFACT

By Joanne Nova

Australian companies will pay $1+ billion in climate accounting fees, including reporting CO2 produced in other countries

One thousand million dollars a year, soon to be more, is being sucked out of the Australian economy to pointlessly track carbon emissions. And companies will pay even more than that to hire consultants to calculate the emissions in the first place so the accountants (the ones earning a billion dollars) can check them.

It creates a new vested interest who will lobby for more of this red tape.

ASIC chair Joe Longo said  it would be ‘the biggest change to company reporting in a generation’.

All over the country fully functional people with 15 years of education (at least) are busy researching and calculating numbers that serve no useful purpose. Even if we pretend carbon dioxide was worth limiting (bear with me), what point is there is tracking emissions produced in China, say, from burning our coal? So, we can flagellate ourselves at UN cocktail parties? So, we can tell off President Xi?

Australian companies are being required to account for emissions they don’t produce, from facilities they don’t own, in countries where Australian law has no jurisdiction. Penalties are in the order of $18 million or 10% of annual turnover. What are we thinking?

These a billion dollars that isn’t making better widgets, growing food, or curing cancer. Customers will have to pay more for the exact same product. Shareholders get nothing but a smaller dividend. Australia becomes just a bit less competitive. But some bureaucrat will have some great stats to share on a slideshow at the next UN convention.

The Labor Party has brought in laws saying all Australian companies with more than 100 employees* have to calculate their carbon emissions in detail, including not just the emissions they control (Scope 1) but the emissions produced by their suppliers of electricity, heating and cooling (Scope 2) and even by their customers (Scope 3).

ClimateZero has helpfully laid out the full bureaucratic nightmare that poor CEOs must employ lawyers and accountants to wade through. This onerous task is being phased in, starting with largest companies last year, and bringing in the smaller $50 million operations* mid next year. “Scope 3” emissions get added to the burden a year after the Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

The awful truth is that big companies are doing all this work and then paying around $85,000 just for accounting firms to check and approve their numbers.  Mid-sized companies are slugged for about $61,000 for the same process. This is really going to hurt smaller businesses.

The Australian Financial Review ran an article discussing “the billion-dollar bonanza” these onerous rules give to the Big Four accounting firms. They noted that the Labor Government is promising to reduce the burden by $210 million or so and was tinkering around the edges considering whether to allow some smaller companies to escape.

Two years ago, two Coalition Senators estimated that climate reporting will cost business $2.3 billion. They estimated 1,800 entities would be captured. It’s just a paper pushing farce, tracking a gas that feeds plants and trees. The Labor Party is creating jobs burying bottles of cash and paying people to dig them up again.

Surely this is soul destroying for the national psyche? Half the population already doesn’t think Net Zero is worth spending a cent on. How long before the people doing the accounting and auditing realize their career is a pointless inanity?

This is The Blob feeding The Blob

Big four’s climate fee bonanza

Edmund Tadros, The Australian Financial Review

Australia’s climate disclosure regime is being examined by a Treasury consultation seeking to pare back some rules and cut the costs of compliance.

The consultation follows a proposal in this year’s federal budget to raise the thresholds for large proprietary companies. This is a move that could free many small companies of the obligation, and the big accounting costs that come with it.

In related developments, the Coalition also announced last Wednesday that it would significantly curtail climate reporting for business, by carving out emissions from Australian gas and coal burned overseas and reducing the number of companies captured by the scheme.

“The European Union and New Zealand have scaled their climate reporting rules back significantly, while the US has stopped pursuing it at the federal level.”

But reducing this accounting burden will cut the income of the Big accounting firms, cry me a river….

Climate fee bonanza for big four

Separate research has projected Australia’s climate reporting market to be worth more than $1 billion a year in fees for consultancies and auditors, with companies paying a median $85,000 (!) for assurance – 70 per cent more than Treasury’s initial $50,000 estimate.

The big four accounting firms captured 90 per cent of climate assurance engagements – 504 out of 561 reports – according to research by data consultancy Purpose Bureau, supported by Monash Business School and advisory firm Foresight.

The research found that the median disclosed fee of the big four is $88,000, compared with a median figure of $61,000 for mid-tier firms.

Thankfully, two weeks ago the Coalition announced they will dump the Scope 3 requirement and also drop the smaller companies out of it.

Coalition to scrap climate reporting red tape

Labor’s own Treasury estimated Scope 3 emissions modelling alone could cost around $245,000 per entity in the first year, and more than $160,000 annually thereafter.

Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor it is absurd to force Australian businesses to report on emissions they cannot control, using data they often cannot access, at a cost running into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Even better, One Nation promises to get rid of the Net Zero Legislation, the Paris Agreement, abolish the Safeguard Mechanism and close the Federal Department of Climate Change.

_______________

*It applies to companies with 100 employees or $50 million in revenue, or $25 million in assets. It may change to a $100m cut off soon, with the Labor revamp.

This article originally appeared at JoNova

Heavy Rain Can More Than Double Glacier Speeds in Alaska, GPS Study Reveals

Heavy rain can more than double the speed of the Sít’ Kusá (Turner) Glacier in Alaska, especially during its slower “quiescent” phase, according to GPS measurements linked to rainfall.

The study examined a temperate surge- type glacier in southeast Alaska’s St. Elias Mountains using ten on- ice GPS stations (plus off-ice references) recording surface speeds roughly every 15 seconds, combined with modeled rainfall (e.g., from ERA5).

Particularly intense or prolonged rain could temporarily slow the glacier during the surge phase (possibly by forcing temporary drainage adjustments), but speeds typically recovered to pre- event levels within about two weeks.

Rainy Alaskan glacier valley surrounded by snow-capped mountains, with text about heavy rain accelerating glacier speeds
AI generated by Grok

Heavy rain can more than double the speed of the Sít’ Kusá (Turner) Glacier in Alaska, especially during its slower “quiescent” phase, according to GPS measurements linked to rainfall.

This comes from a 2026 EGUsphere preprint (under review for The Cryosphere) by Parker Wilkerson, Ellyn Enderlin, and colleagues at Boise State University and the University of Idaho. The popular- science framing matches reports like those on Phys.org.

The study examined a temperate surge- type glacier in southeast Alaska’s St. Elias Mountains using ten on- ice GPS stations (plus off-ice references) recording surface speeds roughly every 15 seconds, combined with modeled rainfall (e.g., from ERA5).

Key findings on rain-induced speed- ups:

  • Researchers identified large rain events and checked for following speed anomalies (via short- term vs. long- term speed ratios), then measured each anomaly’s timing, peak magnitude, duration, and percent change.
  • During the end of a surge (2020- 2021): 9 of 16 large rain events (56%) triggered speed-ups. These averaged a peak of about 7.5 m/day (116% increase over pre- event speeds) and lasted ~66.5 hours. Accelerations often began ~12 hours after rain onset.
  • During quiescence (2022- 2024): Speed-ups were somewhat less frequent (17 of 37 events, or 46%), smaller in absolute terms (~1.5 m/day), and shorter (~33 hours), but they showed a much larger relative increase, averaging 251% (more than double, and sometimes higher). Response lagged longer (~32 hours on average).

The differences point to a more efficient subglacial drainage system (better-connected channels that can handle extra water without as much pressure buildup) during quiescence. Even so, rain still caused clear accelerations in both phases, indicating a persistently inefficient component of the drainage system (isolated cavities or similar features) that lets water pressure rise and reduce basal friction, boosting sliding.

Particularly intense or prolonged rain could temporarily slow the glacier during the surge phase (possibly by forcing temporary drainage adjustments), but speeds typically recovered to pre- event levels within about two weeks.

Overall, the work supports the idea that surge- related drainage changes are not a simple on and off switch and shows that rainfall can noticeably modulate speeds on both fast- and slow- flowing temperate glaciers.

This builds on prior observations that sudden water inputs (heavy rain, extreme melt, or lake drainage) can overwhelm subglacial systems and cause short-lived speed- ups lasting hours to days. The high- resolution GPS records here provide detailed quantification across a full surge cycle at one well- studied Alaskan glacier.

A vast crevassed glacier surrounded by snow-covered mountains beneath a cloudy sky
Sít’ Kusá (Turner Glacier), Alaska. Credit: Kate Bollen/Boise State University

The methods section (Section 2 of the preprint) is detailed and carefully designed to isolate short- term rain- driven speed changes from longer- term surge- related variability.

Here’s a structured breakdown:

2.1 Study Site

Sít’ Kusá (Turner Glacier) is a temperate surge- type glacier in the St. Elias Mountains of southeast Alaska.

The authors divide it into four main zones for context:

  • Upper- northern tributary
  • Icefall (surface elevation drops ~500 m between 20.5- 22.5 km from the terminus)
  • Reservoir zone (from the base of the icefall to the dynamic balance line at ~7- 8 km from the terminus)
  • Receiving zone (from the dynamic balance line to the terminus)

All GPS stations used for the main analysis were located in the reservoir zone.

2.2 GPS Processing

They used 12 GPS records:

  • 10 on- ice stations in the reservoir zone
  • 2 off- ice (“Rock”) stations for reference and noise characterization

Instrument details:

  • NetR9 GPS receivers from the EarthScope Consortium
  • Recorded positions every 15 seconds
  • Deployed 2020- 2024, but usable records are mostly limited to late summer through early fall (July- mid- November) due to power issues and deep snow burial in winter

Processing pipeline (applied uniformly):

  1. Post-processing: Canadian Precise Point Positioning (CPPP) referenced to the Yukon GPS Epoch (2002.0). Positions converted to UTM and time shifted to Alaska Standard Time.
  2. Smoothing and Velocity calculation: Rolling centered moving- window linear (polynomial) fit on Northing and Easting positions.
    • Window size = 1 day
    • Required ≥90% of expected samples (5760 positions) in each window to accept the velocity estimate.
  3. Time- domain filtering: Low-pass 4th- order Butterworth filter applied separately to Northing and Easting components.
    • Corner frequency selected as 0.9 cycles/day after testing (0.1- 4 cycles/day).
    • This frequency best removed atmospheric, ionospheric noise (peaks at 1, 2, 3, 4 cycles, day observed on the stationary Rock10 station) while preserving sub-daily to multi- day signals of interest.
    • Note: This also attenuated natural diurnal melt- driven oscillations, which the authors accepted because their focus was rain events.
  4. Along-flow speed calculation: Magnitude of the filtered velocity vector.
  5. Detrending: Critical step to isolate short- term anomalies from longer- term surge- related trends.
    • During the surge: Smoothing spline fit to the 6- day minima of the speed record (background “floor”).
    • During quiescence: Simple average of the entire record.
    • The background trend was subtracted from the speed time series.
    • Window size of 6 days was chosen after testing shorter and longer windows to avoid over- or under- fitting individual events.

2.3 Modeled Rain Data

  • Primary source: ERA5 reanalysis (0.25° × 0.25° grid cell covering the terminus).
  • Downscaled to the glacier surface using ArcticDEM elevations and the precipitation component of the Energy Balance Firn Model (EBFM; van Pelt et al., 2012).
  • Elevation correction formula: P(z)=PERA​(1+γ100z​)
    where γ=0.1γ=0.1 (10% increase in precipitation per 100 m elevation gain) and zz is the elevation difference.
  • Validation: Visual comparison with daily precipitation at Yakutat Airport (~55 km south). Magnitudes were broadly similar; Yakutat records typically led the modeled data (as expected for coastal- to- inland weather progression). No quantitative statistical validation was possible due to the remote location and lack of on-glacier rain gauges distinguishing rain vs. snow.

Analysis of rain impacts was restricted to 1 July- 15 November each year (GPS data availability and cessation of modeled meltwater equivalent output, after which precipitation is assumed to fall as snow or refreeze).

2.4 Analysis (Speed Anomaly & Rain Event Identification)

Speed anomaly detection:

  • Applied a short- term and long- term average (STA and LTA) ratio to the detrended speeds (a method commonly used in seismology and GPS studies).
    • STA window = 0.75 days
    • LTA window = 90 days
  • Peaks in the STA and LTA ratio were identified with MATLAB’s findpeaks (threshold ratio > 1.9; minimum 2- day separation).
  • Additional filters and manual quality control:
    • Minimum absolute speed increase of 0.65 m/day (to avoid noise during quiescence).
    • Manual inspection removed 4 false positives and added 1 missed event → final total of 37 speed anomalies.

Large rain event identification:

  • MATLAB findpeaks on the rain rate time series.
  • Threshold: peak rate > 2 mm/h (average peak of selected events was 3.5 mm/h, ~95th percentile).
  • Minimum separation of 1 day between events.
  • Compound events (two closely spaced rains producing one continuous speed anomaly) were merged.

Linking rain and speed:

  • A speed anomaly was classified as rain- induced (high sensitivity) if it occurred within a 6- day window after the start of a large rain event.
  • Periods without a corresponding speed anomaly were labeled low sensitivity.
  • For quantitative characterization, speed and rain series were averaged into 4-hour blocks.
  • Characteristic speed profiles were created for high- vs. low- sensitivity periods in both surge and quiescence phases. Additional ice displacement attributable to speed- ups was calculated by subtracting the low- sensitivity displacement from the high- sensitivity displacement.

This careful combination of high-frequency GPS processing, noise removal, detrending, and dual thresholding (speed and rain) allowed the authors to robustly quantify differences in the glacier’s response to rainfall under contrasting drainage- system conditions.

Two-panel box plot comparing cumulative rain over 72 hours after a rain event during surge and quiescent conditions.
Time lags from the start of a rainfall event leading to increased glacier speeds (gray shaded box) during surge and quiescence periods. Credit: Wilkerson et al., 2026.

Rain- induced speed- up events of a temperate surging glacier, AK, inferred from GPS measurements

This study examines how heavy rainfall affects the surface speed of Sít’ Kusá (also known as Turner Glacier), a temperate surge- type glacier in the St. Elias Mountains of southeast Alaska.

The researchers used high- resolution GPS records from the glacier surface, paired with modeled rainfall, to compare the glacier’s kinematic response during the end of a surge (2020– 2021) versus the subsequent quiescent (slow-flow) phase (2022– 2024).

Surge- type glaciers alternate between short periods of rapid flow (surges) and longer periods of slow flow (quiescence).

These changes are strongly linked to the efficiency of the subglacial drainage system (isolated cavities = inefficient; connected channels = efficient). The study tests how short- term pulses of rainwater interact with these systems.

Methods (summary)

  • 10 on- ice GPS stations in the reservoir zone and 2 off -ice reference stations.
  • GPS units recorded positions every 15 seconds (NetR9 systems).
  • Data processing: precise point positioning, smoothing (1- day moving window), low- pass Butterworth filtering to remove atmospheric noise, and detrending.
  • Records mainly cover late summer to early fall due to power and snowpack limitations.
  • Rainfall was modeled (primarily ERA5 data).
  • Speed anomalies were identified by comparing short- term vs. long- term average speeds. Only anomalies following large rain events were analyzed for duration, magnitude, percent increase, and lag time.

Key Results

During the surge (2020– 2021):

  • 9 of 16 large rain events (56%) triggered speed- ups.
  • Average peak speed increase: 7.5 m/day (116% above pre- event speeds).
  • Average duration: ~66.5 hours.
  • Acceleration typically began ~12 hours after rain onset.

During quiescence (2022– 2024):

  • 17 of 37 large rain events (46%) triggered speed-ups.
  • Absolute increases were smaller (~1.5 m/day).
  • Average duration: ~33 hours.
  • Relative increases were much larger: average 251% (more than double the pre-event speed).
  • Response lag was longer (~32 hours on average).

Particularly large, prolonged rain events sometimes caused temporary slow downs during the surge phase, but speeds generally returned to pre- event levels within less than two weeks.

Interpretation

  • The larger absolute, longer- lasting, and more frequent speed- ups during the surge are consistent with a less efficient subglacial drainage system (higher basal water pressures and greater sliding sensitivity).
  • The higher percentage increases during quiescence occur because the background speeds are much lower.
  • Speed- ups in both phases indicate that some inefficient drainage components persist throughout the surge cycle (i.e., there is not a complete binary switch between inefficient and efficient systems).
  • Rain can therefore modulate the speeds of both fast- flowing (surging) and slow- flowing (quiescent) temperate glaciers.

Broader Significance

The work supports recent views that glacier surge dynamics involve more gradual or incomplete changes in drainage system configuration rather than abrupt on and off switches.

It also improves understanding of how extreme rainfall events, expected to become more common in a warming climate, can rapidly influence glacier motion and potentially contribute to mass loss or instability.

Status: Open for discussion until 5 December 2026.
Full PDF and supplement are available on the EGUsphere page.

Journal: The Cryosphere

DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-6232

Preprint: EGUsphere, (discussion started 22 October 2026; under review for The Cryosphere)

Authors: Parker Wilkerson,
Ellyn Enderlin,
Yoram Terleth,
Jukes Liu,
and Jake Anderson

Abstract.

Temperate surge-type glaciers undergo periodic order-of-magnitude increases in flow speeds generally attributed to drainage system evolution, making them ideal sites to explore how the kinematic response of glaciers to rain events varies with subglacial drainage system efficiency. Here, we compare ten GPS-derived glacier surface speed records with modeled rainfall to assess short-term evolutions of the drainage system at the end of a surge (2020–2021) and during quiescent flow (2022–2024) at Sít’ Kusá, Alaska. Speed anomalies were identified using a short-term to long-term average ratio approach and all speed anomalies that followed large rain events were characterized by their duration, magnitude, and immediacy. During the surge, 9 of 16 large rain events (56%) caused speed anomalies, peaking at 7.5 m/d (116% increase) and lasting 66.5 hours on average. During quiescence, rain-induced speed-ups were less frequent (17 of 37 rain events (46%)), smaller (~1.5 m/d), shorter (~33 hours), but greater in percent increase (251%). Although the differences in speed characteristics generally indicate that the drainage system is more efficient during quiescence, speed-ups throughout the surge cycle suggest there is a persistently inefficient component of the drainage system. We find that particularly large and prolonged rain events can cause temporary slow-downs during the surge, but that speeds return to pre-event levels in less than two weeks as the drainage system reverts to its inefficient state. Our work supports recent analyses of glacier instabilities suggesting there isn’t a binary switch in drainage system configuration during surges. More broadly, our findings expand our understanding of glacier kinematic responses to rainfall, demonstrating that rain events can modulate speeds of both fast- and slow-flowing glaciers.