Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Greens are starting to worry they have lost their audience.
You can understand the distress of the Climate Cargo Cult. They’re putting their hearts into the money dance, dancing their feet off, but no bales of cash are showing up.
The Trump Administration thinks the climate crisis is fraud, and climate believer administrations like the governments of Australia, Canada and Europe don’t have any cash to spare.
Greens are starting to worry they have lost their audience.
Talanoa: Is anyone listening? Global leaders need to learn and act on climate change in the Pacific
By Prof. Jioji Ravulo
Pacific people have raised the alarm on climate change for decades, as rising seas pull them away from their homes, weather patterns become more extreme, and traditional food sources come under threat.
But is anyone listening?
…
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) made a landmark ruling in July 2025, holding countries legally responsible for the harms they are causing related to climate change.
…
he International Court of Justice (ICJ) made a landmark ruling in July 2025, holding countries legally responsible for the harms they are causing related to climate change.
…
For climate action activists and leaders in the Pacific, the ruling was an opportunity to focus climate change to a human rights and justice approach. Placing Pacific people and their lived and living experience in the centre of the narrative should be privileged, and key to accountability.
…
Additional funds are needed by governments to support these transitions. However, Pacific people risk abandoning centuries of connection to the vanua, including ancestors that are buried and won’t be relocated.
You can understand the distress of the Climate Cargo Cult. They’re putting their hearts into the money dance, dancing their feet off, but no bales of cash are showing up.
So, they’re going to try to bombard us with more heart rending “stories”, to try to summon back the cash – but the timing couldn’t be worse. The Trump Administration thinks the climate crisis is fraud, and climate believer administrations like the governments of Australia, Canada and Europe don’t have any cash to spare.
I wonder how people like Professor Jioji Ravulo will explain to climate activists that the magic isn’t working anymore?
I don’t think the climate movement will completely disappear. Those cargo cults which appeared when Pacific Islanders saw the US military airdropping supplies during WW2, some of them are still active, still holding out hope the magic food and money rain will one day return. But nobody cares about a bunch of powerless true believers.
My prediction is COP31 is the turning point we’ve all been waiting for – after COP31, the power of the green movement will be broken, and they will rapidly lose any remaining ability to mess up our lives with climate narratives.
Scientists have developed a new way to track microbial nitrogen removal using the rare pairing of two heavy nitrogen- 15 atoms in N₂ gas molecules.
Clumped isotope theory (or clumped- isotope geochemistry) studies the tendency of rare, heavy isotopes to bond preferentially with one another within molecules, rather than being randomly distributed among the more common light isotopes.
Scientists have developed a new way to track microbial nitrogen removal using the rare pairing of two heavy nitrogen-15 atoms in N₂ gas molecules.
The article (by Harrison Tasoff of UC Santa Barbara, in collaboration with Holly Ober of UCLA) covers research published in Science on October 8, 2026. Biogeochemists from UC Santa Barbara, UCLA, and other institutions showed that this rare isotopic “clumping” acts as a natural fingerprint for how much nitrogen microbes convert back into gas.
The problem
Nitrogen is essential for life (proteins, DNA), but excess nitrogen compounds in water, from fertilizer runoff, wastewater, etc., can degrade water quality, fuel harmful algal blooms, and create oxygen- depleted “dead zones”.
Microbes help by converting usable nitrogen compounds into N₂ gas that escapes to the atmosphere (via processes like denitrification). Measuring this removal has been difficult because large amounts of atmospheric N₂ dissolve in water and mask the microbial signal.
The clue from two atoms
N₂ consists of two nitrogen atoms. Most are the common isotope nitrogen- 14; a small fraction is the heavier nitrogen-15. Extremely rarely, both atoms in a molecule are nitrogen- 15 (¹⁵N¹⁵N).
In atmospheric nitrogen, these two heavy atoms pair up more often than random chance would predict (an anomalous “clumped isotope” signature from high-atmosphere photochemistry).
Microbially produced N₂ has the isotopes paired nearly at random (due to enzyme kinetics).
When microbial N₂ mixes with atmospheric N₂, it dilutes the excess of heavy- heavy pairs. Measuring the relative abundance of this rare molecule therefore reveals how much of the gas came from microbes.
How they measured it
The team used UCLA’s large Panorama high- resolution mass spectrometer, which can separate molecules with tiny mass differences that ordinary instruments cannot resolve.
They analyzed samples from diverse environments: Texas groundwater, lakes in Antarctica and Minnesota, Southern California coastal basins, the Bay of Bengal, and deep- sea sediments off Alaska. Microbial mats at methane seeps, for example, emerged as hotspots for nitrogen conversion.
Lead author Jiarui Liu (who did the work as a postdoc at UCLA and UCSB’s Marine Science Institute) and co- authors including Edward Young (UCLA), David Valentine (UCSB), and Alan Seltzer (University College Dublin) emphasize that while the technique currently requires specialized equipment and is not yet for routine field use, it offers a powerful new geochemical tool for understanding Earth’s nitrogen cycle.
Analysis revealed that the microbial mats at methane seeps, like this one off the coast of Southern California, can be hotspots for converting nitrogen compounds into nitrogen gas. Credit Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/ Submersible Alvin
Clumped isotope theory (or clumped- isotope geochemistry) studies the tendency of rare, heavy isotopes to bond preferentially with one another within molecules, rather than being randomly distributed among the more common light isotopes.
Core idea
Ordinary stable- isotope geochemistry measureOrdinary stable-isotope geochemistry measures bulk ratios such as
N/N (δN)
C/C (δC)
O/O (δO)
Clumped- isotope geochemistry goes one step further: it quantifies how often two (or more) rare isotopes occur together in the same molecule, the “clumps.”
Examples of clumped isotopExamples of clumped isotopologues:
In nitrogen gas (N₂): NN (mass- 30)
In CO₂ or carbonate: COO (mass- 47)
In methane: CH₃D or CH₂D₂
Stochastic (random) baseline
If isotopes combined purely by chance, the abundance of a doubly substituted molecule would simply be the product of the individual isotope abundances.
For N₂, the expected stochastic fraction of NN is roughly N abundance.
Why clumping occurs
Bonds between two heavy isotopes have slightly lower zero-point vibrational energy than bonds between light isotopes or mixed pairs. Thermodynamics therefore favor “clumping” of heavy isotopes because it lowers the molecule’s total energy.
This preference is temperature- dependent:
At low temperatures, the energy difference matters more → more clumping (higher enrichment relative to stochastic).
At high temperatures, thermal energy overwhelms the small energy difference → the distribution approaches pure randomness.
The deviation from randomness is reported as a Δ value (in per mil, ‰):
Δi=(RstochasticRsample−1)×1000
where R is the ratio of the clumped isotopologue to a reference isotopologue. Δ = 0 ‰ means a purely stochastic distribution. Positive Δ means excess clumping.
Key applications
Paleothermometry (most famous use) In carbonate minerals, the amount of 1C–O clumping (Δ₄₇) records the temperature at which the mineral formed, independent of the isotopic composition of the water. This has revolutionized paleoclimate reconstruction.
Tracing processes (as in the nitrogen paper) Atmospheric N₂ has a large excess of NN (Δ₃₀ ≈ +19 ‰) produced by photochemical and ion-molecule reactions high in the atmosphere. Microbial processes (denitrification, anammox) produce N₂ with near- stochastic pairing (Δ₃₀ ≈ 0 ‰). Mixing of the two sources dilutes the atmospheric excess, allowing scientists to quantify how much N₂ came from microbes.
Other controls on clumping include kinetic isotope effects, mixing of reservoirs with different bulk compositions, diffusion, and certain photochemical or biological fractionations.
Measurement
Because the clumped species are extremely rare (parts per million or less), high -resolution isotope- ratio mass spectrometers (or specialized laser techniques) are required to resolve them from interferences of nearly identical mass.
In short, clumped- isotope theory turns the internal arrangement of isotopes within molecules into a powerful tracer of temperature, reaction pathways, and mixing, information that bulk isotope ratios alone cannot provide.
Natural 15N15N abundances constrain fixed nitrogen loss
Editor’s summary
Nitrogen gas (N₂) is produced naturally by either photochemical reactions in the atmosphere or microbial processes in the biosphere, but the magnitudes of those sources are poorly quantified. Liu et al. showed that the abundance of the rare 15N15N isotopologue can be used to determine the amount of biogenic N₂ production in aquatic environments, thereby allowing physical and biological N₂ sources to be distinguished. This approach, applied to a wide spectrum of surface and ground water bodies, will help to better constrain the global nitrogen cycle. —Jesse Smith
Abstract
Nitrogen regulates primary productivity across much of the biosphere, yet fixed nitrogen loss remains poorly constrained because existing methods rely on indirect proxies or ex situ experiments.
In this study, the authors show that natural abundances of the rare NN isotopologue of dinitrogen (N₂) provide a direct tracer of biological N₂ production across diverse aquatic environments.
N₂ produced by denitrification and anammox has a near- stochastic NN distribution (≈ 0 ‰).
Atmospheric N₂ carries a distinct NN excess of ~19 ‰.
This large contrast allows the two sources to be quantitatively distinguished.
Across aquifers, stratified lakes, coastal basins, oxygen minimum zones, and marine sediments, NN measurements reveal widespread nitrogen loss that was previously obscured by physical gas accumulation and nitrogen fixation.
Natural NN abundances therefore provide a general framework for directly constraining fixed nitrogen loss across the aquatic nitrogen cycle.
This is the peer- reviewed paper underlying the popular- science articles.
The full text is behind the Science paywall, but the abstract and editor’s summary capture the core advance:
using the clumped- isotope signature of N₂ (Δ₃₀) as a natural tracer for microbial nitrogen removal.
Journal:Science ,Vol. 394, Issue 6820, pp. 207- 211, 8 October 2026
Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the most widespread false claims made about climate change by the media in September 2026.
Summer 2026 NOT hottest evah! – ‘Climate Change’ NOT gobbling up apples or making wildfires more frequent & intense – Sea Levels NOT rising faster than ever – Flash flooding NOT due to ‘climate change’
Guest Post by: The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The Heartland Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, and the International Climate Science Coalition, and Truth in Energy and Climate.
Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the most widespread false claims madeabout climate change by the media in September 2026.
Summer 2026 NOT hottest evah! – ‘Climate Change’ NOT gobbling up apples or making wildfires more frequent & intense – Sea Levels NOT rising faster than ever – Flash flooding NOT due to ‘climate change’
The “Beast from the East” was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.
AI generated by Grok
The “Beast from the East” was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.
It is also known by the official meteorological designation Anticyclone Hartmut. The nickname “Beast from the East” (used by media and the public) referred to the bitterly cold easterly/northeasterly winds that transported Arctic and Siberian air masses across Europe.
Causes
The event was triggered by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in the Arctic around 10-12 February 2018. This disrupted the polar vortex, leading to a high- pressure blocking anticyclone over Scandinavia. The resulting flow pattern reversed the usual mild westerly winds, drawing in very cold continental air from Siberia and Russia.
As this cold, dry air moved over the relatively warmer North Sea, it produced widespread lake- effect (or sea-effect) snow showers, especially across eastern and northern parts of the UK and Ireland.
Around 1- 2 March, it collided with Storm Emma (a low- pressure system moving north from the Atlantic/continent), intensifying snowfall, winds, and disruption, particularly in southern and western areas.
Impacts
Temperatures: Widely sub- zero by day; overnight lows around –10°C to –12°C in rural UK areas (feels- like temperatures lower due to strong winds). Some of the coldest late- February and early- March conditions in decades. A record low March maximum of –4.7°C was set in parts of Wales.
Snow: Widespread accumulations of 5- 20 cm, with 40- 50 and more cm in higher or exposed areas (e.g., parts of Scotland, northern England, south Wales, and southwest England). Blizzards and deep drifts occurred in places.
Disruption: Hundreds of schools closed; major travel chaos on roads, rail (some trains stranded for hours), and airports (flights cancelled); power cuts; some communities isolated.
Water supplies: Rapid thaw after the freeze caused widespread pipe bursts; over 200,000 customers in England and Wales lost supply for more than four hours (tens of thousands for longer).
Casualties: At least 10- 17 weather- related deaths in the UK (including road accidents, falls, and exposure); dozens more across Europe (especially Poland and other eastern and central countries).
Economic: Significant costs (estimates around £1 billion and more in the UK); impacts on retail, deliveries, energy demand, and construction.
A weaker follow- up cold spell around 17- 18 March was nicknamed the “Mini Beast from the East”.
The event highlighted vulnerabilities in infrastructure (especially water networks after the thaw) and linked extreme mid- latitude cold outbreaks to polar vortex disruptions, which some researchers connect to broader Arctic changes. It remains one of the most memorable UK winter weather events of recent decades.
Here’s a clear comparison of the 2018 “Beast from the East” with the main comparable 2021 event and the situation in 2024.
Overview of the Events
Aspect
2018 (Beast from the East / Anticyclone Hartmut)
2021 (Storm Darcy / “Beast from the East 2”)
2024
Dates
Late February – early March (main phase ~24 Feb–4 and 5 Mar; mini follow- up mid- March)
7- 13 February (peak around 7- 11 Feb)
No single major equivalent event. Notable cold and snow periods in January and especially mid- late November
Primary Cause
Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) disrupting the polar vortex → strong high pressure over Scandinavia → Siberian and Arctic easterly flow. Combined with Storm Emma
Easterly flow of cold air from eastern Europe (Ukraine and Black Sea region) and Storm Darcy (named by Dutch Met Service). Linked to an earlier SSW but air mass not as extreme
Various cold snaps (Arctic and continental air at times). Media often speculated about SSW-driven “Beast” returns, but none fully developed into a major prolonged easterly outbreak
Air Mass
Very cold polar continental (Siberian origin); one of the coldest late- winter outbreaks in recent decades
Cold easterly, but milder and origin slightly less extreme than 2018 (Met Office noted it was not as bitingly cold)
Variable; some Arctic outbreaks but generally less sustained extreme continental cold
Temperatures
Widely sub- zero by day; overnight lows often –10°C to –12°C or lower (feels- like much colder with wind). Some March records set
Daytime near or below freezing in many areas; overnight extremes to –23°C at Braemar (UK’s lowest since 1995). Eastern Scotland –10°C to –15°C+
January: lows around –14°C in Scotland (coldest January night since 2019 in places). November: significant cold (e.g., –12.6°C, coldest November night in ~15 years in some spots)
Snowfall
Widespread 5–20 cm; 40–50 and more cm (locally higher) in higher/exposed areas (Scotland, N England, S Wales, SW England). Blizzards and drifts
Significant in eastern and SE England (10- 20 and more cm) and eastern Scotland (20- 38 cm at places like Aboyne). More regionally focused
November 2024: notable event with 8–15 cm in Midlands, up to ~28 cm in places (e.g., Loch Glascarnoch or Crymych); described as most significant November snow since 2010. January had more limited accumulations
Disruption & Impacts
Nationwide: schools closed, major road, rail and airport chaos (trains stranded for hours), power cuts, communities isolated. Post- thaw water supply failures (200,000 and more affected). ~10- 17 UK deaths; dozens more across Europe. Economic cost ~£1bn and more.
Significant but more regional (especially east and SE England and Scotland): roads closed, travel disruption, some school and COVID vaccine centre closures, power cuts in places. Fewer fatalities reported; less prolonged national chaos
Localized and moderate disruption from snow and ice (schools closed in places, travel issues), but nowhere near 2018 scale. No widespread “Beast”- level infrastructure crisis
Duration & Intensity
Longest and most intense of the three, multi- week cold with two phases
About a week of severe conditions; coldest spell since 2018 but shorter and less extreme overall
No comparable multi-day national freeze and more heavy snow event
Key Takeaways
2018 remains the standout event, the original and most severe “Beast from the East”. It combined extreme cold from a true Siberian air mass, widespread heavy snow (enhanced by sea- effect showers and Storm Emma), and major nationwide impacts including infrastructure failures after the thaw.
2021 was a genuine “Beast from the East 2” (media and some forecasters used the name). It produced the coldest conditions since 2018 (with a notable absolute low temperature record for the period) and disruptive snow, especially in the east. However, the air mass was not quite as cold, the event was shorter, and impacts were more regional rather than nationwide.
2024 had no true equivalent. Cold snaps and snow occurred (notably a significant November event), and media frequently hyped potential “Beast from the East” returns based on forecast charts and possible SSW activity. None matched the intensity, duration, or disruption of 2018 or even 2021. The term is often applied loosely by the media to any cold easterly spell.
In short: 2018 > 2021 >> 2024 in terms of severity and national impact for these types of easterly cold outbreaks.
The Met Office and meteorologists generally reserve strong “Beast from the East” comparisons for events involving prolonged polar continental air with significant snow and sub- zero conditions across large parts of the UK.
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.
In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects
AI generated by Grok
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.
Normally, strong, stable westerly winds form the stratospheric polar vortex high above the Arctic in winter.
Roughly once every two years this vortex temporarily breaks down in an SSW. The stratosphere warms, but cold surface air can spill southward into Europe (and North America). Cold weather after an SSW, such as the 2018 “Beast from the East”, typically arrives a few weeks later, giving energy providers and governments a useful early- warning window.
Key findings
Extreme electricity demand was defined as at least 20% above average and is driven mainly by heating needs.
Impacts vary by country: Scandinavian nations (better adapted to cold) show smaller demand increases, while France (with a highly electrified system) sees a steeper rise.
The UK is currently relatively well buffered by gas central heating, but the shift toward electrification (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals will make cold, low- wind periods more challenging for grid reliability and costs.
Lead author Dr Regan Mudhar (now at the University of Lausanne) noted the clear statistical link between SSWs and extreme demand events, using the 2018 polar- vortex split as a prominent example.
Co- author Dr Hannah Bloomfield (Newcastle University) highlighted the growing relevance for energy systems as heating electrifies. Mudhar also observed that while greenhouse- gas- driven warming continues, SSWs are still expected to occur and bring cold snaps, so preparedness matters alongside emissions reductions during the renewable transition.
The peer- reviewed paper, “The influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on extreme European electricity demand,” appears in Meteorological Applications (DOI: 10.1002/met.70241) and was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council GW4 and Doctoral Training Partnership. The work builds on earlier research linking stratospheric variability to European weather and energy impacts.
“Sudden stratospheric warming” (SSW), AI generated by Meta
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) mainly affect the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Their surface impacts (cold air outbreaks, shifts in the jet stream, storm tracks, etc.) vary a lot by location:
Northern and Central Europe (the focus of the recent University of Exeter study): Higher chance of extreme cold and elevated electricity demand (especially heating- driven) in the weeks after an SSW.
North America (especially eastern US and Canada): Can also bring cold outbreaks, though the exact patterns differ from Europe.
East Asia: Sometimes linked to colder conditions.
Southern Hemisphere, tropics and high Arctic: Impacts are generally weaker, different, or minimal for the classic “SSW → cold snap” pathway discussed in the European energy study.
In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects for energy demand.
Typical weather impacts
SSWs disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and often lead (within days to a few weeks) to a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This favours:
High pressure over Scandinavia or the North Atlantic (“blocking”).
A southward shift or weakening of the jet stream.
Easterly or northerly winds that draw cold continental or Arctic air into Europe.
Key regional patterns (based on observations and studies):
Northern and central Europe (Scandinavia, UK, Baltics, much of Germany, Poland, etc.): Higher chance of prolonged cold spells, more intense cold extremes (coldest days and nights often 2°C+ colder in SSW winters for parts of Scandinavia), and increased snow risk (especially in milder western areas like the UK and Ireland). Average winter temperatures can be ≥1°C cooler in SSW winters over large parts of Scandinavia.
Southern Europe: Tendency toward milder, wetter, and sometimes stormier conditions, with increased precipitation and more wet days.
Impacts are not guaranteed, only a portion of SSWs produce strong surface cold (roughly half or somewhat more, depending on the metric and region). Effects can persist for weeks to ~40- 60 and more days and vary by SSW type (more “radical” events tend to produce stronger, more widespread cold).
Classic example: the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe.
Energy and societal impacts
The recent University of Exeter- led study (published in Meteorological Applications) specifically quantified electricity demand effects:
SSWs raise the probability of extreme electricity demand (≥20% above average) in northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times. This is driven mainly by heating needs during cold weather.
Demand response varies by country: Scandinavian nations (already well adapted to cold) show smaller relative increases; France (highly electrified heating) shows steeper rises. The UK is currently buffered by gas heating but faces growing challenges as heating electrifies (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals.
Related studies (e.g., for Finland) also link SSW winters, especially when combined with the easterly phase of the Quasi- Biennial Oscillation, to colder temperatures, lower wind speeds, higher electricity consumption, and reduced wind power generation.
Broader effects can include transport disruptions from snow/ice, higher cold- related health risks, and stress on energy systems (particularly as renewables and electrification expand). Storm- related hazards in northern Europe are often less frequent after SSWs than after strong- vortex periods.
Practical note
Because the surface response typically lags the stratospheric change by days to weeks, an observed SSW can serve as an early- warning signal for energy providers and governments to prepare for potential demand spikes. Not every event produces extreme cold, but the elevated risk is clear and statistically robust for northern and central Europe.
the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe. AI generated by Meta
The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand
Abstract and Core Findings
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) offer surface predictability up to several weeks ahead. They typically precede colder weather (including extremes) across the northern mid-latitudes. Because cold weather drives higher heating- related electricity demand, the authors investigate the SSW, demand link using:
ERA5 reanalysis data and a weather- driven electricity demand model for various European countries.
Subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project, focused on the February 2018 SSW.
Key results:
Extreme electricity demand (~120% of climatology, i.e., at least ~20% above average) is 1.5- 3 times more likely in the periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe.
For the specific February 2018 SSW (which preceded a notable European cold outbreak), the SNAPSI nudged experiments show a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk that can be attributed to the SSW itself.
This creates a practical “window of opportunity” for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks after SSWs are observed.
Methods Overview
Historical analysis: Identified 30 major SSWs (1979/80- 2024/25) using the Charlton & Polvani criterion on ERA5 10 hPa, 60°N zonal wind. Examined temperature-derived electricity demand in the 45 days after each SSW onset.
Attribution for 2018: Used SNAPSI ensemble forecasts with two stratospheric nudging setups (nudged to the observed SSW evolution vs. nudged to climatology). This isolates the causal contribution of the anomalous stratospheric state to surface temperatures and, via the demand model, to electricity demand extremes.
Broader Context
The paper emphasises that SSWs are one of the few sources of subseasonal- to- seasonal (S2S) predictability and that linking them explicitly to energy-system impacts (rather than just temperature) is novel. It also discusses the value of forecast- based attribution approaches for impact studies.
Title: The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) provide a source of surface predictability up to several weeks in advance. They generally precede cold weather across the northern midlatitudes, including extremes. When it is cold, demand for heating typically increases electricity demand. We use reanalysis data and a weather-driven demand model for various European countries to investigate the relationship between SSWs and extreme electricity demand. We find that extreme demand of ~120% of climatology is 1.5–3 times more likely in periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe. We then use subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts project to explicitly attribute the impact of the February 2018 SSW, an event that preceded a cold weather outbreak across Europe. These experiments include nudging of the stratospheric state to either its observed or climatological evolution, allowing the causal impact of the SSW to be identified. We find a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk attributed to the 2018 event. This indicates a window of opportunity for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks following SSWs.
Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors.
Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors. Sometimes violent anti-tourist protests are breaking out in some European cities. Based on recent protests, if anything is threatening tourism there, it is the backlash against visitors in various popular European locations.
The ETC, according to their website, “is a non-profit organization representing the national tourism organizations of Europe.” Santander explained that tourism makes up 10 percent of Europe’s economy, and 10 percent or more of the GDP of Spain alone. Santander proceeded to say that tourism infrastructure needs more investment because of the pressures of “overtourism” causing congestion at airports and in the visited communities. He then goes off the rails and claims that “climate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now, by far.”
Euronews quotes him as citing anecdotes like train service interruption “because the rails are expanded because of the heat,” and cruise lines being unable to enter some European rivers due to drought causing falling water levels.
The truth is that bad weather has and always will impact tourism. Deadly or severe heat waves are not unprecedented for Europe, nor are their impacts. This is especially true regarding drought: one need look no further than the reappearance of “hunger stones” – ancient drought-indicating markers in European rivers and lakes which show that severe drought in fact occurred multiple centuries before industrialization.
The article also claims that people are fleeing hotter vacation destinations for cooler ones. It is true that more of the cooler parts of the world are seeing more tourism, but so are the warmer locations. Indeed, tourism is booming in many countries as greater numbers of tourists explore beyond historically popular destinations, including colder locales. Overall, France saw the busiest summer tourism season in 15 years this year. Data from this year showed that tourism increased more in parts of France like Normandy than they did on the French Mediterranean coast, but numbers are still well above pre-pandemic levels.
It is almost certainly not the heat itself, tourists looking for a beach vacation expect and want the heat… except that perhaps American tourists would rather not stay in the hotels that lack air conditioning.
If it were true that global warming was making it so that people were abandoning hot destinations, places like Mexico would be seeing declines, but this is not the case. Mexico’s attractive areas have also seen increased tourism despite known dangers, and Mexico is much hotter than France. Mexico’s tourism has surpassed pre-pandemic tourism levels such that it is expected to be one of the top five most-visited countries by 2040.
This year, Spain is expected to surpass its all time record for tourist visits. The Canary Islands are warm year round, and saw a record breaking year last year for tourism.
Recently, the massive increase in tourism has become so stressful to some European city residents that protests against tourists have broken out in France and Spain, again the two places where climate change is supposedly threatening tourism.
In France, residents complain about the “Disneyfication” of parts of Paris, overcrowding has led to strikes and unrest. In Spain it is worse: protests have broken out in Barcelona, the Canaries, and other locations, some involving violent confrontations this year and in 2025.
Just because weather and transit disruptions in some locations can cause tourists to modify their vacation choices, does not mean that climate change is a huge threat to tourism. Despite knowing that the numbers are improving almost everywhere, Euronews and Santander decided to exaggerate the threat in order to give lip service to the climate agenda. At the same time, they are deflecting blame for European policies and the actions of some of Europe’s citizens that discourage or make tourism less welcoming.
Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.
The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.
AI generated by Grok
Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.
A study from the Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences at Stockholm University (led by Martin Ekman, with co- author Rachel Foster) shows that the tendency of different strains to aggregate directly controls how much of their biomass is exported downward.
Individual cells are too small to sink efficiently on their own, but colony- forming strains appear more often in larger size fractions and in sediment-trap material. Their contribution to exported biomass was broadly proportional to their abundance in surface waters (often a large share of the phytoplankton community).
Researchers sampled surface water plus depths of 25 m and 75 m at Landsort Deep (a long- term monitoring site) during spring and summer, used sediment traps below the sunlit zone, and combined microscopy, flow cytometry, size fractionation (>10 µm vs. free/small cells), and genetic sequencing (16S rRNA).
Seasonal differences appeared between colony- forming and mostly single- cell strains, suggesting aggregation is an important ecological trait.
This matters for the biological carbon pump: phytoplankton photosynthesis takes up CO₂, and sinking biomass moves that carbon deeper, helping regulate atmospheric CO₂. Remineralization of the sinking material also contributes to oxygen- poor (anoxic) bottom waters in places like the Baltic Sea.
Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding how their biomass can still be exported is relevant for predicting carbon cycling and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors note that similar processes should be checked in other picophytoplankton-dominated regions, such as open- ocean gyres.
The peer- reviewed paper is “Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export,” published in The ISME Journal (2026).
Micrograph of phytoplankton from Landsort Deep, BY31, the long-term monitoring site of the Baltic Sea where samples were taken for the reported study. In the upper left corner is a large diatom, Chaetoceros danicus, distinguished by its long spines protruding from the cell, a few large colonies and aggregates of picocyanobacteria lie in the background, and in the bottom middle are two pigmented and compacted colonies of the cyanobacteria Woronichinia next to two filaments of the N2-fixing cyanobacteria Aphanizomenon. Credit: Helena Höglander
The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.
It is a major component of the global carbon cycle. Phytoplankton perform roughly half of Earth’s photosynthesis, drawing down dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, including CO₂) and helping the ocean absorb atmospheric CO₂. Without the BCP, atmospheric CO₂ would be substantially higher (estimates often cite ~200 ppm higher in a world without export).
The BCP is often discussed alongside the solubility (or physical) pump and the carbonate (or alkalinity and hard- tissue) pump. A related concept is the microbial carbon pump, which transforms labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into more refractory forms that can persist for centuries to millennia.
Core Stages of the Biological Carbon Pump
Primary production: Phytoplankton (including diatoms, coccolithophores, and picocyanobacteria such as Synechococcus) fix CO₂ into organic matter (particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) via photosynthesis in the euphotic zone.
Food- web processing and transformation: Much of the fixed carbon is rapidly recycled in the surface layer by grazing, respiration, and bacterial degradation (the microbial loop). A fraction escapes recycling and is available for export.
Export from the surface: Organic carbon (and some inorganic carbon) moves downward via multiple pathways.
Attenuation and remineralization: As material sinks or is transported, microbes and zooplankton consume and respire it, releasing CO₂ (DIC) at various depths. The depth of remineralization largely determines how long the carbon is sequestered.
Sequestration: Carbon that reaches greater depths (or is transported into poorly ventilated water masses) remains isolated from the atmosphere longer.
Main Export Mechanisms (Pathways)
Modern frameworks often group processes into three broad categories (gravitational, migrant, and mixing/physical injection pumps), sometimes expanded into six more specific “particle injection pumps”.
1. Gravitational (sinking) pump: The classic pathway, often the largest contributor to net export.
Aggregation is critical: small cells (e.g., picocyanobacteria <2 µm) rarely sink alone but can form colonies or stick together into faster- sinking aggregates, as shown in the Baltic Sea study. Ballasting by dense minerals (opal from diatoms, calcium carbonate from coccolithophores) increases sinking speeds.
Marine snow and fecal pellets sink at rates from meters to hundreds of meters per day. Recent work highlights that the internal viscosity structure of aggregates influences bacterial colonization and degradation rates, more viscous particles degrade more slowly and can sequester carbon more effectively.
2. Migrant (animal- driven) pumps
Diel vertical migration: Zooplankton (and some fish) feed near the surface at night and migrate to deeper waters by day, where they respire, excrete, and defecate, actively transporting carbon downward.
Seasonal and ontogenetic (lipid) pump: High- latitude zooplankton (especially copepods) accumulate lipid stores in surface waters during productive seasons, then migrate to depth for overwintering (diapause), releasing carbon via respiration or mortality.
3. Mixing and physical injection (particle injection) pumps:
These transport both particulate and dissolved organic carbon via physical processes acting across different scales:
Mixed- layer pump: Seasonal deepening and subsequent shoaling of the mixed layer detains organic matter below the new mixed- layer depth.
Eddy and submesoscale subduction pump: Intense vertical velocities at fronts and eddies inject surface water (and its organic carbon) downward.
Large- scale subduction pump: Associated with large- scale circulation and Ekman pumping.
Additional contributions come from DOC export (some DOC is labile and quickly remineralized; a fraction becomes refractory via the microbial carbon pump) and from the carbonate pump (formation and sinking of CaCO₃ shells, which has different chemical effects on seawater alkalinity and CO₂).
Global estimates of organic carbon export from the euphotic zone are typically in the range of ~10- 15 Pg C yr⁻¹ (with substantial uncertainty and rapid attenuation so that much less reaches the deep ocean). A significant fraction of century- scale sequestration can occur above 1,000 m in some regions (“continuous vertical sequestration”).
Efficiency, Variability, and Climate Relevance
Export efficiency (the fraction of primary production that is exported) and transfer efficiency (how much of the export reaches greater depths) vary strongly with region, season, ecosystem structure (e.g., size of phytoplankton, zooplankton communities), temperature, nutrient availability, and oxygen levels. Warmer, more stratified, nutrient- poor oceans are expected to favor smaller phytoplankton (including picophytoplankton), which may alter aggregation and export dynamics.
The BCP also influences oxygen distributions: remineralization of sinking organic matter is a major cause of oxygen minimum zones and anoxic conditions in places such as the Baltic Sea.
Climate change is projected to affect the BCP through shifts in primary production, community composition, sinking rates, remineralization rates (often temperature- dependent), and ocean circulation. Earth- system models currently disagree on the net future change in global export flux.
In short, the biological carbon pump is not a single process but an interconnected set of biological, chemical, and physical mechanisms whose combined effect helps regulate atmospheric CO₂ and sustains deep- ocean ecosystems. Aggregation of even the smallest photosynthetic cells (as in the Baltic picocyanobacteria example) is one concrete illustration of how microscopic traits scale up to influence global carbon cycling.
Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export
Key Findings (from the abstract and available excerpts)
Picocyanobacteria (especially Synechococcus) contributes substantially to carbon export in the ocean, but the mechanism allowing their tiny cells (<2 µm) to reach depth was unclear. This study provides in situ evidence from the Baltic Sea (Landsort Deep area) linking cell aggregation and colony formation directly to sedimentation.
Picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70- 90%) to their abundance in surface waters.
Both cell aggregation (enrichment in the >10 µm size fraction) and sedimentation (enrichment in sediment- trap material) varied among different Synechococcus amplicon sequence variants (ASVs/strains).
A robust linear relationship exists between an ASV’s enrichment in the large-size fraction and its enrichment in sediment traps. This indicates that the degree of aggregation is a direct determinant of how much of that strain sinks.
Dominant aggregate- forming ASVs showed similar seasonal abundance patterns that differed from single- cell ASVs, suggesting that colony/aggregate formation is an important ecological trait influencing strain distribution and responses to environmental conditions (possibly nutrient dynamics).
By correlating microscopy observations with sequence data, the authors propose genotypes for the dominant colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes in the Baltic Sea.
Methods Snapshot
Researchers combined:
Size- fractionated water sampling (surface, 25 m, 75 m)
Sediment traps
Microscopy and flow cytometry
16S rRNA gene sequencing of free- living vs. aggregated fractions and trap material
Broader Implications
These results help explain how pico- sized phytoplankton biomass is exported from the photic zone. Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding aggregation mechanisms is important for predicting biological carbon pump strength and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors recommend investigating similar processes in other picophytoplankton- dominated regions (e.g., open- ocean gyres).
This is the peer- reviewed source behind the Stockholm University press release discussed earlier.
The full text is available via the Oxford Academic link (may require institutional access or open- access options).
Picocyanobacteria contribute significantly to carbon export but the mechanism by which their biomass is transported to depth is unclear. By analyzing 16S rRNA gene sequences from sediment trap material and size-fractionated water samples from different depths in the Baltic Sea, we show that picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70%–90%) to their surface water abundances. However, we also found that both cell aggregation (enrichment in >10 μm fraction) and sedimentation (trap enrichment) varied among Synechococcus ASVs (amplicon sequence variants). A robust linear relationship was identified between ASV enrichment in traps and ASV enrichment in the >10 μm fraction, suggesting that cell aggregation is a direct determinant of Synechococcus sedimentation. Seasonal abundance patterns were similar among the dominant aggregate-forming ASVs but distinct from those of single-cell ASVs, suggesting aggregate/colony formation being an important trait in determining distribution of Synechococcus strains and their response to environmental conditions. Correlating microscopy- and sequence-based abundances further allowed us to propose genotypes for the dominant Baltic Sea colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes. Our results provide in situ data linking phenotypic characteristics of picocyanobacteria with sedimentation properties and several lines of evidence for a quantitative dependency between surface water picocyanobacterial aggregate/colony formation and sinking. These findings are important for our understanding of mechanisms involved in export of pico-sized phytoplankton biomass from the photic zone to depth and emphasize the need to investigate occurrence and environmental regulation of cell aggregation in other picophytoplankton-dominated waters (e.g. open ocean gyres).
Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.
A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’
Electrician Workers Shaking Hands Near High Voltage Circuit Line Tower
Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.
Right now, there are 600 million people in Africa who do not have access to electricity. But these people still cook meals for the family and need to keep warm in winter. How do they complete these very human tasks? They light fires. What do they use for fuel? They collect fuel from the immediate surroundings. That fuel consists of materials such as wood and dung. The dung they collect from their cattle, or maybe they get some from wild animals in the neighbourhood. The wood they get from the natural environment. They go out into the surrounding bush and collect dead trees and branches. They also chop trees down. This is hard work, I know that from personal experience because I have collected bush-wood a number of times. On camping trips and day excursions out in the bush, us South Africans quite frequently collect the natural dry dead wood to make a fire to cook lunch or dinner. It is a favourite pastime to do a BBQ, or as we call it, a braai.
For tribal people living deep in a rural area, not connected to electricity, having a braai lunch or dinner is not fun, but rather survival. Collecting the wood is considered women’s work, and it is not unusual to see African women walking long distances with large collections of wood on their heads. It is amazing the loads that they can carry balanced on their heads.
Burning wood and dung creates smoke, plus the gases emanating from all the impurities in the wood and dung, plus loads of CO2. So just imagine millions of fires burning every day. Imagine also how quickly one could cut the CO2 emissions, if all these people were connected to electricity. That would be great. It has to happen in due course. The electricity could be produced using coal-fired power stations, burning coal cleanly with great modern efficiency. Such power stations are known as HELE technology. The HELE is; High Efficiency Low Emissions.
As illogical as it may sound, the construction of HELE coal-fired power stations would be good for the environment and for human health, if built in large numbers in Africa.
But the no-coal zealots would never hear of such a thing. They are not interested in doing the right thing for the environment, they are interested in their will being the dominant force. They are playing a political game.
A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’ During a coffee break discussion with him he said that Switzerland should cut its electricity consumption by 20%, because Swiss people could afford to live a less extravagant lifestyle. He was also of the opinion that Africa should be limited to a 10% increase in electricity consumption. By 10% he meant ever, not per annum. He then produced pictures and waxed lyrical about how Africans should be an example to the world, on how to live ‘in harmony with nature.’ The pictures he produced showed an African woman walking from the river with a bucket of water on her head. Another showed an African subsistence farmer ploughing with a wooden plough, drawn by one ox. The Swiss greenie enthusiastically explained to me how they were living in harmony with nature, leaving a small footprint behind… as if the concept were new to me. I replied that I would rather see the farmer get a tractor and a steel plough. The greenie just about had a fit, and pointed out that not only does a tractor produce CO2 it would also lead to leaks of oil and fuel into the ground…bad for ants, worms, etc. Furthermore, the tractor would cause fuel tankers to have to deliver fuel, he earnestly explained, leading to more CO2 emissions, etc. I also got the lecture on how bad it would be to pump water to the village… that would require pumps and lubricants.
I marvelled at the mentality of the Swiss fellow who really seemed to think that he could convince me that it would be helping mankind and the planet by blocking electricity and fuel into African countries.
Of course, I don’t for one moment expect the large-scale building of HELE coal-fired power stations in African countries to actually take place, even if the countries had coal, which they don’t. But certainly, what can be done is the large-scale electrification of African countries by using nuclear power, particularly Small Modular Reactors. From an environmental conservation point of view, SMRs not only have a very small physical land area footprint, but they also use so little fuel that there’s no large-scale fuel delivery footprint. An SMR can have fuel deliveries three or four times a year, using a truck modified to carry the fuel. There’s no need for a fuel conveyor belt or railway, as required to deliver fossil fuel continuously.
When advocating environmental solutions for the world, it really is necessary to think carefully about the real circumstances of the various people concerned.
Here in Africa it does not go down at all well when people from European countries arrive and sanctimoniously preach to us on how we should be ‘saving the planet’ their way because they say so.
Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160–180 million years old).
The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench).
AI generated by Grok
Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160- 180 million years old).
The findings come from a study led by YoungHee Kim of Seoul National University and colleagues, published in Seismological Research Letters (announced by the Seismological Society of America on 7 October 2026).
Researchers analyzed seismic anisotropy, directional variations in wave speeds caused by the alignment of minerals (mainly olivine) in the upper mantle under the influence of flow, using data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018- 2019).
Key results
The Pacific Triangle lies ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench and marks the site of an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.
Anisotropy patterns in the uppermost mantle are spatially variable and complex. They partly align with both ancient (fossil) and more recent plate motions but cannot be explained by simple present- day plate- motion- driven deformation alone.
Some orientations reflect inherited structures from the plate’s long tectonic history (changes in plate motion), while others show mantle deforming around features such as a sunken lithospheric remnant (redirecting flow, consistent with earlier tomographic images) and possible localized hotspot upwelling near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the old triple junction (areas with weak or absent clear anisotropic signals).
This provides a rare window into past mantle flow beneath old oceanic lithosphere, the interaction between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and the evolution of Earth’s crust. Fossil anisotropy in the lithosphere can coexist with signals from ongoing upper- mantle flow.
The team is now analyzing data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to extend the picture and better separate contributions from regional flow, inherited deformation, and the subduction system.
Source: Seismological Society of America news release summarizing the Seismological Research Letters paper by Kim et al. (2026).
The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench).
It is generally dated to about 160-180 million years old (Middle to Late Jurassic).
This crust formed at the birth of the Pacific Plate around an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges within the Panthalassa Ocean.
Direct sampling (e.g., Ocean Drilling Program Site 801) and magnetic anomaly data support ages around 167- 170 Ma for the main mid- ocean ridge basalts, with some studies indicating the plate began accreting as early as ~190- 192 Ma.
Oceanic crust is continuously created at mid- ocean ridges and destroyed by subduction, so almost none survives longer than ~200 million years. The western Pacific holds the oldest extensive, relatively undisturbed examples.
Possible older remnant
A 2016 study using magnetic data proposed that crust in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Herodotus Basin) could be ~315- 365 million years old (Carboniferous–Permian, potentially a remnant of the ancient Tethys Ocean). This would make it the oldest known oceanic crust still in place under the seafloor.
However, this interpretation is more debated: the area is covered by very thick sediments, direct sampling is limited, and many standard references still cite the Jurassic western Pacific crust as the oldest well- documented large- scale oceanic lithosphere.
In summary: For the vast majority of scientific contexts and global seafloor age maps, the oldest oceanic crust is the Jurassic crust of the western Pacific (~160- 180 and more Ma). Older fragments exist as ophiolites emplaced on land (sometimes billions of years old), but those are no longer part of the intact ocean floor.
Complex Upper‐Mantle Anisotropy Beneath the Pacific Triangle Revealed by Shear‐Wave Splitting
The full text appears to be behind a GeoScienceWorld, SSA paywall or institutional access (attempts to retrieve the complete page content were blocked). The publicly available summary and related coverage provide the following key points:
Summary of the study
Seismic data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018–2019) reveal complex, spatially variable seismic anisotropy in the uppermost mantle beneath the Pacific Triangle, a ~160- 180-million- year- old region of oceanic crust ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench. This area marks an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.
Method: Analysis of shear- wave splitting (anisotropy), which records the lattice preferred orientation of minerals (primarily olivine) aligned by past and present mantle flow.
Main finding: The directional patterns of anisotropy are complicated. Some orientations align with both fossil (ancient plate- motion) and more recent plate motions, while others deviate from simple predictions based on present- day plate motion alone. Fossil anisotropy preserved in the lithosphere coexists with signals from ongoing upper-mantle flow.
Additional observations:
Systematic changes in wave direction indicate mantle flow redirected around a sunken lithospheric remnant (previously hinted at by tomography).
Weak or absent clear anisotropic signals near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the ancient triple junction, consistent with possible localized hotspot upwelling.
Significance: Provides a rare view of how mantle flow evolves beneath the oldest preserved oceanic plate, reflecting the interplay of plate-motion changes, inherited structures, and local features over geological time.
The research team is extending the work with data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to map regional trends and better separate contributions from inherited deformation, regional flow, and subduction- related processes.
For the complete abstract, figures, methods, and discussion, institutional or personal access to GeoScienceWorld / Seismological Research Letters is required. The SSA news release remains the most detailed open summary currently available.
The Kingdom of Kush was a powerful ancient African civilization centered in Nubia (roughly modern northern Sudan and southern Egypt), along the Nile River south of Egypt. It flourished for over a thousand years, roughly from the 11th/8th century BCE to the 4th century CE and is best known today for its numerous steep- sided pyramids, its conquest of Egypt, and its sophisticated culture that blended local Nubian traditions with strong Egyptian influences.
Climate and environmental factors significantly shaped the Kingdom of Kush, from its rise and periods of prosperity to aspects of its decline, while modern climate pressures threaten its archaeological remains today.
AI generated by Grok
The Kingdom of Kush was a powerful ancient African civilization centered in Nubia (roughly modern northern Sudan and southern Egypt), along the Nile River south of Egypt. It flourished for over a thousand years, roughly from the 11th/8th century BCE to the 4th century CE and is best known today for its numerous steep- sided pyramids, its conquest of Egypt, and its sophisticated culture that blended local Nubian traditions with strong Egyptian influences.
Geography and Early History
Kush occupied the Nile Valley in Upper Nubia, a resource- rich region with gold, ivory, ebony, and later major iron production. Earlier cultures in the area include the Kerma culture (c. 2500- 1500 BCE), a powerful independent kingdom that rivaled Egypt before being conquered during Egypt’s New Kingdom. After Egypt’s control weakened around 1070 BCE, a new independent Kushite state emerged.
Major Periods
Napatan Period (c. 1000/800- 270 BCE): Capital at Napata (near modern Jebel Barkal and the Fourth Cataract). Kings adopted many Egyptian religious and artistic practices, especially the cult of Amun. Key rulers include Alara (traditional founder), Kashta, Piye (Piankhi), Shabaka, and Taharqa. In the 8th- 7th centuries BCE, Kushite kings conquered Egypt and ruled as the 25th Dynasty (often called the “Black Pharaohs” or Kushite Dynasty). Their empire stretched from the Mediterranean into deep into Sudan- the largest unified Nile state of its time. They were eventually driven out by Assyrian invasions (culminating c. 663- 656 BCE).
Meroitic Period (c. 270 BCE- 350 CE): After Egyptian forces sacked Napata around 590 BCE, the capital shifted south to Meroë (between the Fifth and Sixth Cataracts). This became a major center of ironworking, trade, and distinctive culture. The Kushites developed their own writing system (Meroitic script, still only partially deciphered) and continued pyramid-building on a large scale. Queens (kandakes or “Candaces”) sometimes ruled in their own right and held significant power.
Achievements and Culture
Built over 200 pyramids (more than Egypt), mainly as royal and elite tombs, smaller and steeper than Egyptian ones, with the largest concentration at Meroë.
Excelled in iron production, goldworking, trade (ivory, gold, slaves, exotic goods), and archery.
Maintained a complex administration, temple architecture, and art that mixed Egyptian motifs (Amun worship, pyramids, hieroglyphs early on) with local African elements.
Strong tradition of female political and religious authority.
Decline
The kingdom gradually weakened due to overexploitation of resources, shifts in trade routes, and external pressures. It was effectively ended by an invasion from the Kingdom of Aksum (in modern Ethiopia and Eritrea) around 330- 350 CE, which destroyed Meroë.
Kush was one of Africa’s longest- lasting and most sophisticated ancient states. It interacted extensively with Egypt (sometimes as subject, rival, or conqueror), traded with the Mediterranean and Red Sea worlds, and left a rich archaeological legacy that is still being uncovered in Sudan. Its pyramids and sites (Meroë, Nuri, El-Kurru, Jebel Barkal) are UNESCO World Heritage locations.
Reliable sources, including Guinness World Records, consistently put the number of extant ancient pyramids in Sudan at roughly 200- 255 (with Guinness citing at least 230 as of 2025, and some estimates up to 255). Egypt’s total is generally given as around 118- 140, depending on how incomplete or smaller structures are counted.
These are the Nubian pyramids, built by the Kingdom of Kush (in the region of ancient Nubia, which spans parts of modern northern Sudan and southern Egypt). Construction spanned roughly a millennium, from about the 8th/7th century BCE into the 4th century CE.
Key sites include:
Meroë (the largest concentration, with well over 100, often cited as the densest cluster of pyramids anywhere)
Nuri
El- Kurru
Jebel Barkal
And smaller sites such as Sedeinga
They served as tombs for Kushite royalty, nobles, and high officials. Unlike most Egyptian examples, the deceased were typically buried beneath the pyramids rather than inside them. The structures are generally smaller and steeper (often ~60- 70° angles) than the famous Egyptian ones, with bases typically in the range of several to a few dozen meters rather than the massive scale of Giza.
The Kingdom of Kush was a sophisticated African civilization that at times rivaled and even ruled Egypt (the 25th Dynasty, often called the “Black Pharaohs”). Pyramid- building there continued long after it had largely ceased in Egypt, which helps explain the higher total count. The sites see far fewer visitors than Giza due to location, logistics, and Sudan’s recent challenges, but several (including the Island of Meroë) are UNESCO World Heritage sites.
The contrast in fame is real and has more to do with modern history, accessibility, and scholarly focus than with the monuments’ historical importance.
A day in the Kuschite Empire (Kingdom of Kush), AI generated by Meta
Climate and environmental factors significantly shaped the Kingdom of Kush, from its rise and periods of prosperity to aspects of its decline, while modern climate pressures threaten its archaeological remains today.
Long-Term Holocene Context and the Rise of Kush
The broader region of Nubia (northern Sudan and southern Egypt) experienced major hydroclimatic shifts after the African Humid Period (“Green Sahara”, roughly ending around 5,000 years ago). As the climate dried, the Nile’s behavior changed dramatically.
Around 4,000 years ago, the river shifted from deep valley incision (erosion) to widespread floodplain aggradation (sediment buildup). This created more stable, fertile agricultural land near key sites such as Jebel Barkal and Napata.
The long- term stability of the Nile in this constrained valley section, combined with the sacred significance of Jebel Barkal, helped support enduring settlement and the later flourishing of the Kushite capital at Napata (c. 1070 BCE onward).
Relatively wetter conditions and more predictable Nile flooding in parts of the first millennium BCE underpinned agriculture, trade, and the kingdom’s expansion (including the 25th Dynasty conquest of Egypt).
Climate and the Meroitic Period and Decline
The capital later shifted south to Meroë (around the 3rd century BCE). Some researchers link this, at least in part, to hydroclimatic changes that made rain- fed agriculture more viable farther south.
From roughly 200 BCE (accelerating after ~50 CE), proxy records indicate progressive aridification across the region. This is associated with the end of the Roman Climatic Optimum, weakened monsoon systems, reduced rainfall in the Ethiopian Highlands (source of much of the Nile’s flow), and multi- century drought tendencies in the Sahel. Nile floods became less reliable.
A 2023 isotopic study of human and animal dental enamel from 13 cemeteries in Upper Nubia provides direct evidence: rising δ¹⁸O values (indicating greater aridity and higher temperatures or less precipitation) and less negative δ¹³C values (suggesting increased reliance on C₄ plants better adapted to dry conditions) toward the late Meroitic and post- Meroitic periods. These shifts align with changes in agricultural practices and land use and likely contributed to the kingdom’s dissolution around the mid- 4th century CE, alongside socio- political instability, economic pressures, and the Aksumite invasion.
Climate was not the sole cause of collapse, political fragmentation, trade shifts, and external military pressure were major factors, but increasing aridity appears to have stressed the agricultural base and resource systems that sustained the centralized Meroitic state.
Human Environmental Impacts (Especially Iron Production)
Meroë was a major iron- production center for centuries. Traditional narratives linked intensive charcoal use to large- scale deforestation and environmental degradation.
However, anthracological (charcoal) studies show extreme selectivity for Nile acacia (Acacia/Vachellia nilotica) throughout more than 1,000 years of metallurgy, with no clear evidence of fuel shortage or widespread environmental collapse from smelting alone.
Non metallurgical contexts used a broader range of woods. Resource management or access to specific wood sources may have mitigated impacts. Overgrazing and agricultural expansion likely played larger roles in local landscape pressure.
Modern Climate Impacts on Kushite Sites
Today the Nubian pyramids and related monuments (especially the UNESCO World Heritage site at Meroë) face accelerated threats from climate -related processes:
Encroaching sand dunes and wind erosion that bury structures, abrade stone, and promote salt crystallization and damage.
Occasional heavy rains and flooding risks that undermine foundations and accelerate decay.
Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that intensify these processes.
Conservation efforts have been severely disrupted by Sudan’s ongoing conflict since 2023, leaving sites more vulnerable.
In summary, the Kingdom of Kush thrived during phases of relative Nile stability and adequate moisture but faced growing environmental stress from progressive aridification in its later centuries.
These historical climate dynamics offer a clear illustration of how complex societies in the Nile corridor have long been intertwined with hydroclimatic variability, an issue that continues for the monuments left behind.
Map of the Kushite Empire, AI generated by Meta
Climate change has severely impacted modern Sudan, ranking it among the world’s most vulnerable countries despite its minimal contribution to global emissions. Sudan consistently appears near the top of vulnerability indices (e.g., fourth most affected out of 186 countries in recent Notre Dame rankings and very high exposure with low readiness on the ND- GAIN Index).
Observed Climate Changes
Rising temperatures: Mean annual temperatures have increased at roughly 0.3°C per decade (1961- 2015), with some regions (e.g., Sennar) seeing ~0.36°C per decade. Heat extremes have become more frequent and intense; summer temperatures in the north often exceed 43°C.
Erratic rainfall and extremes: Greater year- to- year variability, with alternating prolonged droughts and intense floods or flash floods. Rainfall patterns have shifted in timing, intensity, and distribution.
Desertification: Expanding arid and semi- arid zones, driven by higher temperatures, reduced soil moisture, overgrazing, and deforestation, reducing productive land (arid and semi- arid areas already cover a large share of the country).
Major Impacts
Agriculture and food security (the most direct and widespread effects): Over 90% of Sudan’s agriculture is rain- fed and employs a large share of the population. Droughts reduce soil moisture, disrupt planting, and lower yields of staples like sorghum, millet, and sesame. Floods destroy crops, cause waterlogging, and erode soil. Key production areas (Gedaref, Sennar, Blue Nile, Darfur) face recurring stress. Historical droughts affected tens of millions; recent years include major floods (e.g., 2020 and 2024 damaging large cropland areas) and ongoing dry conditions in 2025- 2026 that threaten harvests, partly linked to El Niño. These pressures contribute heavily to acute food insecurity (around 19.5 million people in Crisis or worse levels in early 2026 analyses).
Water resources: Higher temperatures increase evaporation and reduce available water for irrigation, livestock, and domestic use. Floods damage infrastructure and contaminate sources.
Health: Extreme heat raises risks of heat stress (especially for outdoor workers, children, elderly, and pregnant people). Floods and droughts promote waterborne diseases (cholera, diarrhea) and vector- borne ones (malaria, dengue, Rift Valley fever).
Displacement and livelihoods: Weather- related disasters have triggered an average of about 150,000 internal displacements annually in recent years. Pastoralists and farmers face livestock losses, pasture decline, and livelihood collapse. Climate stress multiplies existing pressures from conflict (which has displaced millions since 2023), increasing competition over land and water.
Economy and infrastructure: Agriculture (a major GDP contributor) suffers repeated losses. Floods damage roads, canals, homes, and other infrastructure; overall climate- related losses run into billions of dollars. Desertification further shrinks the economic base.
Future Outlook
Projections under various emissions scenarios show continued strong warming (roughly 1.5- 3°C or more by mid- century, potentially higher by late century under high- emissions pathways), more frequent and intense droughts, heavier rainfall extremes when they occur, shorter optimal growing seasons for key crops, and heightened water stress. These trends will intensify existing vulnerabilities unless adaptation measures scale up significantly.
In short, climate change acts as a powerful risk multiplier in Sudan: it undermines the rain- dependent economy, worsens food and water insecurity, damages health and infrastructure, drives displacement, and interacts dangerously with conflict and poverty. The combination has created one of the world’s most acute humanitarian and environmental challenges.
African Humid Period (“Green Sahara”), AI generated by Meta
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