Europe’s Great Drought of 1975–76: The Summer That Turned Rivers to Dust and Forced Millions to Queue at Standpipes

The 1975–1976 European drought (often called the Great Drought of 1976, especially in the UK) was one of the most severe and widespread droughts in western and central Europe in the 20th century.

The drought ended abruptly with heavy rains from September 1976 onward in many areas, though recovery of groundwater and some ecosystems took longer.

The 1975- 1976 European drought (peaking in summer 1976) resulted from a combination of large- scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, preceding dry conditions, and reinforcing feedback. It was not caused by a single factor but by interacting meteorological and oceanic influences that produced persistent high pressure and diverted moist Atlantic air away from western and central Europe.

A group of villagers, including men, women, and children, stands in a line holding buckets in a dry, cracked landscape with a setting sun in the background.
AI generated by Grok

The 1975–1976 European drought (often called the Great Drought of 1976, especially in the UK) was one of the most severe and widespread droughts in western and central Europe in the 20th century.

It lasted roughly from autumn and late 1975 through summer 1976 (peaking around July- August 1976), with effects lingering into early 1977 in some hydrological records. It primarily affected the UK, France, parts of Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and broader central and northern Europe; the Mediterranean and northwest Norway were largely spared.

Causes and meteorological context

It developed from a prolonged period of below- average rainfall starting in mid- 1975 (or earlier in some areas), combined with a mild, dry winter of 1975- 76 that limited groundwater and reservoir recharge, followed by an exceptionally hot, dry spring and summer in 1976.

Persistent high- pressure systems (blocking anticyclones, including a northward- shifted Azores High) diverted Atlantic moisture away from western Europe.

Contributing factors included jet- stream shifts northward, unusual sea- surface temperature patterns (e.g., cooler North Pacific and Canada in winter), feedback from dry soils and Atlantic temperatures, and possible teleconnections (an El Niño event began in early 1976).

In the UK, the 16- month period from May 1975 to August 1976 was among the driest on record (driest for England and Wales since at least the early 1700s in some analyses); rainfall deficits exceeded 40- 60% in places, with some areas seeing consecutive rain- free months.

Extreme heat compounded it: in the UK, temperatures reached ≥32.2°C for 15 consecutive days (23 June- 7 July 1976), and highs over 25°C occurred daily for weeks.

Key impacts

Water resources: Severe depletion of rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater (especially chalk aquifers in southern and eastern England). Many rivers reached historic low flows (some UK minima not approached since); springs dried up; saline intrusion occurred in coastal and estuarine areas. In the UK, hosepipe bans, standpipes (shared outdoor taps), and rota cuts affected over a million people by August 1976; the Drought Act 1976 was passed. France and other areas saw supply restrictions and emergency deliveries (trucks and helicopters in places). Hydropower output fell sharply (e.g., ~30% drop in France early on); inland navigation on rivers like the Rhine was heavily disrupted.

Agriculture: Major crop failures and livestock stress. Cereals, potatoes, vegetables, and grass and hay yields dropped sharply (e.g., spring barley down up to 50% on sandy UK soils; potato shortages drove prices up dramatically). Fodder shortages led to early slaughter of livestock and reduced milk production (notably in France, UK, Denmark). Food prices rose; some countries restricted exports of straw and fodder. Economic losses included an estimated 0.5% hit to French GDP growth and billions of francs in commercial losses.

Environment and ecology: Widespread wildfires (e.g., ~90,000- 105,000 ha burned in France, far above average; elevated fire numbers in southern England and northern Germany and Denmark). Fish kills from high temperatures, low oxygen, and pollution concentration; drying of ponds and streams; algal blooms; impacts on wetlands and forests (drought stress, disease). Land subsidence damaged properties in parts of southern and eastern England.

Other: Higher excess mortality linked to the heat (estimates around 6,000 in France, though not fully recognized at the time); tourism and industry disruptions in some regions.

The drought ended abruptly with heavy rains from September 1976 onward in many areas, though recovery of groundwater and some ecosystems took longer.

It remains a benchmark event for UK and northwest European drought and heatwave studies, with ongoing research into its rarity, synoptic drivers, and how climate change may alter the likelihood of similar extremes.

Detailed contemporary reviews (e.g., UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology reports) document it as the most severe multi- month event in the instrumental record for much of the UK.

A group of people, including children and adults, stands beside a water tap in a drought-affected area with dry, cracked ground. A sign indicates water restrictions due to the 1975-76 drought.
AI generated by Meta

The 1975- 1976 European drought (peaking in summer 1976) resulted from a combination of large- scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, preceding dry conditions, and reinforcing feedback. It was not caused by a single factor but by interacting meteorological and oceanic influences that produced persistent high pressure and diverted moist Atlantic air away from western and central Europe.

Primary atmospheric drivers

  • Persistent blocking anticyclones: Strong, long- lived high- pressure systems (notably a northward-shifted Azores High) dominated from late 1975 through summer 1976. These blocked or steered rain-bearing low- pressure systems (depressions) northward or away from the region. High- pressure ridges near the British Isles and across western Europe were exceptionally frequent and intense.⁠
  • Northward displacement of the jet stream: From the winter of 1974- 75 onward, the main Atlantic jet stream shifted well north of its usual position (north of the Hebrides in 1975, near Iceland by 1976). This directed cyclonic activity and storms farther north, leaving much of western Europe under drier, more stable conditions.⁠

Contributing and reinforcing factors

  • Antecedent dryness: Rainfall was already below average in much of 1975 (especially from May onward in places), and the winter of 1975- 76 was mild and unusually dry. This limited groundwater and reservoir recharge, so soils and water stores entered spring and summer already depleted. The period May 1975- August 1976 ranks among the driest on record for England and Wales.⁠
  • Ocean and remote influences: Unusual coldness in the North Pacific Ocean and over Canada during the winter half-year, stronger- than- usual upper winds in the central Pacific, and the phase of the quasi- biennial oscillation were linked to the broader circulation pattern. Feedback involving North Atlantic sea- surface temperatures helped sustain the anomalous atmospheric mode. An El Niño event began in early 1976 and may have played a teleconnection role.⁠
  • Land- atmosphere feedback: Once soils dried out extensively, reduced evaporation (latent heat) and increased sensible heating further suppressed cloud formation and rainfall, helping maintain the dry, hot conditions through the summer of 1976. Modeling at the time supported that large areas of dry ground can inhibit precipitation.

Contemporary analyses (e.g., by Met Office scientists such as R.A.S. Ratcliffe) concluded that the drought arose from the interaction of these anomalies rather than any single cause, and that it appeared to be a rare extreme event rather than clear evidence of a long- term climatic shift at the time. The pattern finally broke in late August- September 1976 with a return of more normal Atlantic flow and heavy rains.

In short, the drought was driven by a prolonged, anomalous northward shift in the jet stream and persistent blocking highs that starved the region of rain, amplified by prior dryness and soil- moisture feedback.

A vibrant outdoor swimming pool scene filled with families and children enjoying a sunny day. In the foreground, a man is holding a young girl with a colorful float, while a woman sits next to them. Other adults and children are swimming and lounging around the pool, and the background features a pool house with a sign in German and an assortment of colorful beach umbrellas.
Summer of ’76 feeling
AI generated by Meta

Key data and statistics for the 1975- 1976 European drought (primarily affecting the UK, France, and parts of central and northern Europe; duration roughly November 1975- early 1977, peaking July- August 1976).

Rainfall and duration

  • Overall scale (Europe): Climatological drought (SPI-6) peaked around 27 July 1976, affecting ~61% of Europe (~4.5 million km²). Hydrological drought peaked around 1 July 1976, covering ~71% of temperate Europe (~5.3 million km²). Approximate duration: November 1975–February 1977.⁠
  • UK (England & Wales): The 16-month period May 1975–August 1976 recorded only 756 mm of rainfall– assessed as the worst on record. This was ~61% of the 1916- 1950 average.
    • May- August 1976: 140 mm vs. long-term average of 278 mm (~50% of average).
    • June- August 1976: ~35% of average for England & Wales.
    • Return period estimates for the 16- month drought: often >1 in 250 years (some analyses suggested ~1 in 1,000 years, with large uncertainty).
    • Regional examples (as % of 1916- 1950 average to end of August 1976): Southwest and Welsh areas ~61% over 16 months; Thames, Southern and Wessex ~59%.
  • France: Spring 1976 had a ~46% precipitation deficit overall (second- driest spring in records from 1959 onward in some analyses). Deficits often >50- 60% north of a Bordeaux, Metz, La Rochelle and Mulhouse line (return periods estimated 60- 120 and more years in ultra- oceanic regions like Brittany, Normandy, Pays de la Loire).
  • Example: Évreux (April- June) received 21 mm vs. usual ~150 mm. Mediterranean areas were often near or above normal.

Temperature and heat

  • UK: Temperatures ≥32.2°C recorded somewhere in Britain for 15 consecutive days (23 June- 7 July 1976). Mean daily maximum temperatures June- August 1976 were ~3.0°C above average over most of England and Wales. Sunshine totals >130% of average in many areas. One of the warmest and driest summers on record.⁠
  • Extreme heatwave conditions combined with the drought, amplifying evaporation and soil moisture deficits. Potential evaporation was often 110- 130% of average in England and Wales.

Hydrological impacts (rivers, groundwater, reservoirs)

  • River flows (UK): Minimum flows in late summer 1976 remain among the lowest (or the lowest) on record across much of England and Wales; many have not been approached since. Daily outflows from England & Wales were at record lows through most of spring and all of summer 1976. Some rivers dried up in sections; chalk streams were particularly affected. Flow augmentation (pumping groundwater into rivers) was used in places (e.g., River Lambourn, Candover Stream).⁠
  • Groundwater: Near or at natural base levels by late summer and early autumn 1976 in many aquifers (especially Chalk in south and east England). Winter 1975- 76 recharge was near zero in large areas — the primary driver of the severity. Springs ceased over wide areas. Recovery lagged the meteorological end of the drought (into late 1976- early 1977).
  • Reservoirs: Many in England and Wales were half-full or less by early 1976; some approached critical levels (e.g., London ~90 days’ supply left by late August; Leeds ~80 days). Standpipes and rota cuts affected hundreds of thousands to over a million consumers in the worst- hit areas (e.g., parts of Devon, Yorkshire, South Wales). Drought orders covered roughly one- third of the country by mid- June.

Agricultural and economic impacts

  • UK: Spring barley yields on sandy soils in the east and southeast down by as much as 50% in 1975. Acute potato shortages (estimated deficit ~2 million tonnes); prices soared (e.g., open- market potatoes reached ~£170/tonne vs. contract prices ~£45). Grass and hay shortages forced early livestock sales and reduced milk yields. Farmers’ losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of pounds (one contemporary figure cited ~£500 million).
  • France: Crop losses significant for spring cereals, maize, potatoes, and especially fodder and pasture (deficits of 50- 60% reported). Potato prices rose sharply (e.g., tomatoes doubled in a week in mid- June reports). Agricultural production volume down ~1.8% overall (vegetables more). Commercial losses estimated >4 billion francs; ~0.5% reduction in GDP growth. Government aid of 2.2 billion francs (partly funded by a temporary “drought tax” of 4- 8% on higher incomes).
  • Broader Europe: Widespread fodder shortages, early livestock slaughter, and reduced milk production (notably France, UK, Denmark). Food price rises for potatoes, vegetables, etc.

Other impacts

  • Wildfires: France: ~90,000–105,000 hectares burned (vs. long-term annual average ~32,000 ha). Elevated fire numbers in southern England (up to 40 times previous years in some reports) and parts of northern Germany and Denmark.
  • Ecology: Fish kills (elevated temperatures, low oxygen, pollution concentration); drying of ponds and stream sections; algal blooms; saline intrusion in some coastal and estuarine areas; impacts on wetlands and forests.
  • Water supply and society: Hosepipe bans widespread; standpipes (often 1 per ~20 houses in affected districts); night- time cut- offs in places (e.g., up to 17 hours in parts of South Wales). Industry restrictions and reuse measures in some areas. Land subsidence damaged properties in parts of southern and eastern England.

The drought ended abruptly with heavy rains from September 1976 (one of the wettest Septembers and Octobers in long UK records in some analyses), though groundwater and some ecological recovery took longer.

It remains a benchmark extreme event in UK and northwest European hydrological records.

Data are drawn primarily from contemporary UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) and National Hydrological Monitoring Programme reviews, Met Office analyses, and French meteorological and agricultural reports.

Fiji Pre COP31 Climate Conference Panic: “is anyone listening?”

Greens are starting to worry they have lost their audience.

You can understand the distress of the Climate Cargo Cult. They’re putting their hearts into the money dance, dancing their feet off, but no bales of cash are showing up.

The Trump Administration thinks the climate crisis is fraud, and climate believer administrations like the governments of Australia, Canada and Europe don’t have any cash to spare.

A satirical cartoon depicting a pre-COP31 meeting in Fiji, featuring a frantic speaker emphasizing the urgency of climate change, while attendees appear disinterested or asleep. The background shows rising sea levels threatening Tuvalu, along with humorous annotations about the meeting's ineffectiveness.
AI generated by Meta

From Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Greens are starting to worry they have lost their audience.

Talanoa: Is anyone listening? Global leaders need to learn and act on climate change in the Pacific 

By Prof. Jioji Ravulo

Pacific people have raised the alarm on climate change for decades, as rising seas pull them away from their homes, weather patterns become more extreme, and traditional food sources come under threat. 

But is anyone listening? 

…

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) made a landmark ruling in July 2025, holding countries legally responsible for the harms they are causing related to climate change.  

…

he International Court of Justice (ICJ) made a landmark ruling in July 2025, holding countries legally responsible for the harms they are causing related to climate change.  

…

For climate action activists and leaders in the Pacific, the ruling was an opportunity to focus climate change to a human rights and justice approach. Placing Pacific people and their lived and living experience in the centre of the narrative should be privileged, and key to accountability.

…

Additional funds are needed by governments to support these transitions. However, Pacific people risk abandoning centuries of connection to the vanua, including ancestors that are buried and won’t be relocated.

…Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/talanoa-climate-change-pacific-is-anyone-listening-cop31/107220240

You can understand the distress of the Climate Cargo Cult. They’re putting their hearts into the money dance, dancing their feet off, but no bales of cash are showing up.

So, they’re going to try to bombard us with more heart rending “stories”, to try to summon back the cash – but the timing couldn’t be worse. The Trump Administration thinks the climate crisis is fraud, and climate believer administrations like the governments of Australia, Canada and Europe don’t have any cash to spare.

I wonder how people like Professor Jioji Ravulo will explain to climate activists that the magic isn’t working anymore?

How bad a flop will COP31 prove to be?

How many climate activists will jump ship and join the United Nations new Artificial Intelligence COP?

I don’t think the climate movement will completely disappear. Those cargo cults which appeared when Pacific Islanders saw the US military airdropping supplies during WW2, some of them are still active, still holding out hope the magic food and money rain will one day return. But nobody cares about a bunch of powerless true believers.

My prediction is COP31 is the turning point we’ve all been waiting for – after COP31, the power of the green movement will be broken, and they will rapidly lose any remaining ability to mess up our lives with climate narratives.

Rare Atomic Pair Reveals Where Earth’s Nitrogen Really Goes

Scientists have developed a new way to track microbial nitrogen removal using the rare pairing of two heavy nitrogen- 15 atoms in N₂ gas molecules.

Clumped isotope theory (or clumped- isotope geochemistry) studies the tendency of rare, heavy isotopes to bond preferentially with one another within molecules, rather than being randomly distributed among the more common light isotopes.

Illustration depicting the nitrogen cycle on Earth, highlighting the role of rare isotopic pair 15N, terrestrial pathways, aquatic pathways, and microbial processes in nitrogen conversion.

Scientists have developed a new way to track microbial nitrogen removal using the rare pairing of two heavy nitrogen-15 atoms in N₂ gas molecules.

The article (by Harrison Tasoff of UC Santa Barbara, in collaboration with Holly Ober of UCLA) covers research published in Science on October 8, 2026. Biogeochemists from UC Santa Barbara, UCLA, and other institutions showed that this rare isotopic “clumping” acts as a natural fingerprint for how much nitrogen microbes convert back into gas.

The problem

Nitrogen is essential for life (proteins, DNA), but excess nitrogen compounds in water, from fertilizer runoff, wastewater, etc., can degrade water quality, fuel harmful algal blooms, and create oxygen- depleted “dead zones”.

Microbes help by converting usable nitrogen compounds into N₂ gas that escapes to the atmosphere (via processes like denitrification). Measuring this removal has been difficult because large amounts of atmospheric N₂ dissolve in water and mask the microbial signal.

The clue from two atoms

N₂ consists of two nitrogen atoms. Most are the common isotope nitrogen- 14; a small fraction is the heavier nitrogen-15. Extremely rarely, both atoms in a molecule are nitrogen- 15 (¹⁵N¹⁵N).

  • In atmospheric nitrogen, these two heavy atoms pair up more often than random chance would predict (an anomalous “clumped isotope” signature from high-atmosphere photochemistry).
  • Microbially produced N₂ has the isotopes paired nearly at random (due to enzyme kinetics).

When microbial N₂ mixes with atmospheric N₂, it dilutes the excess of heavy- heavy pairs. Measuring the relative abundance of this rare molecule therefore reveals how much of the gas came from microbes.

How they measured it

The team used UCLA’s large Panorama high- resolution mass spectrometer, which can separate molecules with tiny mass differences that ordinary instruments cannot resolve.

They analyzed samples from diverse environments: Texas groundwater, lakes in Antarctica and Minnesota, Southern California coastal basins, the Bay of Bengal, and deep- sea sediments off Alaska. Microbial mats at methane seeps, for example, emerged as hotspots for nitrogen conversion.

Lead author Jiarui Liu (who did the work as a postdoc at UCLA and UCSB’s Marine Science Institute) and co- authors including Edward Young (UCLA), David Valentine (UCSB), and Alan Seltzer (University College Dublin) emphasize that while the technique currently requires specialized equipment and is not yet for routine field use, it offers a powerful new geochemical tool for understanding Earth’s nitrogen cycle.

Underwater scene showcasing textured rocks covered with yellow and grayish biofilm or algae against a dark background.
Analysis revealed that the microbial mats at methane seeps, like this one off the coast of Southern California, can be hotspots for converting nitrogen compounds into nitrogen gas. Credit Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/ Submersible Alvin

Clumped isotope theory (or clumped- isotope geochemistry) studies the tendency of rare, heavy isotopes to bond preferentially with one another within molecules, rather than being randomly distributed among the more common light isotopes.

Core idea

Ordinary stable- isotope geochemistry measureOrdinary stable-isotope geochemistry measures bulk ratios such as

15N/14N (δ15N)

13C/12C (δ13C)

18O/16O (δ18O)

Clumped- isotope geochemistry goes one step further: it quantifies how often two (or more) rare isotopes occur together in the same molecule, the “clumps.”

Examples of clumped isotopExamples of clumped isotopologues:

In nitrogen gas (N₂): 15N15N (mass- 30)

In CO₂ or carbonate: 13C18O16O (mass- 47)

In methane: 13CH₃D or 12CH₂D₂

Stochastic (random) baseline

If isotopes combined purely by chance, the abundance of a doubly substituted molecule would simply be the product of the individual isotope abundances.

For N₂, the expected stochastic fraction of 15N15N is roughly (15N abundance)2.

Why clumping occurs

Bonds between two heavy isotopes have slightly lower zero-point vibrational energy than bonds between light isotopes or mixed pairs. Thermodynamics therefore favor “clumping” of heavy isotopes because it lowers the molecule’s total energy.

This preference is temperature- dependent:

  • At low temperatures, the energy difference matters more → more clumping (higher enrichment relative to stochastic).
  • At high temperatures, thermal energy overwhelms the small energy difference → the distribution approaches pure randomness.

The deviation from randomness is reported as a Δ value (in per mil, ‰):

Δi=(RsampleRstochastic−1)×1000Δi​=(Rstochastic​Rsample​​−1)×1000

where R is the ratio of the clumped isotopologue to a reference isotopologue.
Δ = 0 ‰ means a purely stochastic distribution. Positive Δ means excess clumping.

Key applications

  1. Paleothermometry (most famous use)
    In carbonate minerals, the amount of 131C–18O clumping (Δ₄₇) records the temperature at which the mineral formed, independent of the isotopic composition of the water. This has revolutionized paleoclimate reconstruction.
  2. Tracing processes (as in the nitrogen paper)
    Atmospheric N₂ has a large excess of 15N15N (Δ₃₀ ≈ +19 ‰) produced by photochemical and ion-molecule reactions high in the atmosphere.
    Microbial processes (denitrification, anammox) produce N₂ with near- stochastic pairing (Δ₃₀ ≈ 0 ‰).
    Mixing of the two sources dilutes the atmospheric excess, allowing scientists to quantify how much N₂ came from microbes.

Other controls on clumping include kinetic isotope effects, mixing of reservoirs with different bulk compositions, diffusion, and certain photochemical or biological fractionations.

Measurement

Because the clumped species are extremely rare (parts per million or less), high -resolution isotope- ratio mass spectrometers (or specialized laser techniques) are required to resolve them from interferences of nearly identical mass.

In short, clumped- isotope theory turns the internal arrangement of isotopes within molecules into a powerful tracer of temperature, reaction pathways, and mixing, information that bulk isotope ratios alone cannot provide.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Natural 15N15N abundances constrain fixed nitrogen loss

Editor’s summary

Nitrogen gas (N₂) is produced naturally by either photochemical reactions in the atmosphere or microbial processes in the biosphere, but the magnitudes of those sources are poorly quantified. Liu et al. showed that the abundance of the rare 1515N1515N isotopologue can be used to determine the amount of biogenic N₂ production in aquatic environments, thereby allowing physical and biological N₂ sources to be distinguished. This approach, applied to a wide spectrum of surface and ground water bodies, will help to better constrain the global nitrogen cycle.
—Jesse Smith

Abstract

Nitrogen regulates primary productivity across much of the biosphere, yet fixed nitrogen loss remains poorly constrained because existing methods rely on indirect proxies or ex situ experiments.

In this study, the authors show that natural abundances of the rare 15N15N isotopologue of dinitrogen (N₂) provide a direct tracer of biological N₂ production across diverse aquatic environments.

  • N₂ produced by denitrification and anammox has a near- stochastic 15N15N distribution (≈ 0 ‰).
  • Atmospheric N₂ carries a distinct 15N15N excess of ~19 ‰.

This large contrast allows the two sources to be quantitatively distinguished.

Across aquifers, stratified lakes, coastal basins, oxygen minimum zones, and marine sediments, 15N15N measurements reveal widespread nitrogen loss that was previously obscured by physical gas accumulation and nitrogen fixation.

Natural 15N15N abundances therefore provide a general framework for directly constraining fixed nitrogen loss across the aquatic nitrogen cycle.

This is the peer- reviewed paper underlying the popular- science articles.

The full text is behind the Science paywall, but the abstract and editor’s summary capture the core advance:

using the clumped- isotope signature of N₂ (Δ₃₀) as a natural tracer for microbial nitrogen removal.

Journal: Science ,Vol. 394, Issue 6820, pp. 207- 211, 8 October 2026

DOI: 10.1126/science.aei0940

Provided: University of California – Santa Barbara

Authors: Jiarui Liu, David L. Valentine, Annie Bourbonnais, Dale T. Andersen, Daniele Bianchi, Grace Brown, M. Bayani Cardenas, Daniel Fillion, Claudia Frey, Kelsey M. Gosselin, Aoshuang Ji, Franklin S. Kinnaman, Denis Lacelle, Moritz F. Lehman, Katelyn McPa , James Mullahoo, Victoria J. Orph, André Pellerin, Elen Reji, Elizabeth D. Swanner, Tina Treude, Alan M. Seltzer, and Edward D. Young

Climate Fact-Check September 2026

Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the most widespread false claims made about climate change by the media in September 2026.

Summer 2026 NOT hottest evah! – ‘Climate Change’ NOT gobbling up apples or making wildfires more frequent & intense – Sea Levels NOT rising faster than ever – Flash flooding NOT due to ‘climate change’

Text overlay reading 'Climate Fact Check: September 2026 Edition' against a backdrop of a scenic canyon landscape.

From ClimateRealism

Guest Post by: The Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, The Heartland Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, and the International Climate Science Coalition, and Truth in Energy and Climate.

Editor’s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the most widespread false claims made about climate change by the media in September 2026.

Summer 2026 NOT hottest evah! – ‘Climate Change’ NOT gobbling up apples or making wildfires more frequent & intense – Sea Levels NOT rising faster than ever – Flash flooding NOT due to ‘climate change’

Infographic discussing claims by UN Secretary-General António Guterres about rising sea levels, featuring a tweet by him and a graph comparing past and present sea level rise rates.
Links: Post by Secretary-General António Guterres, sea level rise studies, 1920s-1940s rates.

Article discussing the flash flooding incident in the Grand Canyon on August 29, 2026, highlighting claims about climate change and providing a fact-check on the geological history related to flooding.
Links: CNN report, Grand Canyon history.

Article discussing claims about the summer of 2026 being the hottest on record, highlighting NOAA data and clarifying that it was the warmest but not the hottest.
Map showing average temperature ranks by climate district in the United States for May 2026, with areas color-coded based on temperature rank intensity.
Links: CNN post, CBS post, USA Today post, NOAA data, NOAA press release, U.S. climate divisions recording records, TOB adjustment, homogenization issues, blending urban warming.

Article titled 'No, NPR, climate change is not challenging New York's apple growers' discussing the impact of late frosts and other factors on apple production.
Links: NPR affiliate post, USDA data.

Infographic fact-checking claims about climate change and wildfires, highlighting a Senate statement by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and providing satellite data showing no increase in global wildfire area since 2002.
Links: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse clip, satellite record, fuel buildup research, 1910 “Big Burn.”

An article titled 'September 25th: Wrong, TIME, nor'easters aren't proof of climate change' discussing a claim by TIME on the impact of climate change on nor'easters and providing a fact-check.
Links: TIME Magazine article, IPCC wind speed confidence.

Until next month, enjoy these and other great climate fact checks at:

ClimateRealism.com

ClimateDepot.com

Wattsupwiththat.com

Read the original PDF, here.

Beast from the East Showdown: 2018 Still Reigns Supreme Over 2021’s Sequel and 2024’s Empty Hype

The “Beast from the East” was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.

Infographic comparing the winter weather events of 2018, 2021, and 2024, highlighting the chaos of 2018, the unoriginal sequel of 2021, and the disappointment of 2024.
AI generated by Grok

The “Beast from the East” was a major cold wave and severe winter weather event that affected the UK, Ireland, and much of continental Europe in late February and early March 2018.

It is also known by the official meteorological designation Anticyclone Hartmut. The nickname “Beast from the East” (used by media and the public) referred to the bitterly cold easterly/northeasterly winds that transported Arctic and Siberian air masses across Europe.

Causes

The event was triggered by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in the Arctic around 10-12 February 2018. This disrupted the polar vortex, leading to a high- pressure blocking anticyclone over Scandinavia. The resulting flow pattern reversed the usual mild westerly winds, drawing in very cold continental air from Siberia and Russia.

As this cold, dry air moved over the relatively warmer North Sea, it produced widespread lake- effect (or sea-effect) snow showers, especially across eastern and northern parts of the UK and Ireland.

Around 1- 2 March, it collided with Storm Emma (a low- pressure system moving north from the Atlantic/continent), intensifying snowfall, winds, and disruption, particularly in southern and western areas.

Impacts

  • Temperatures: Widely sub- zero by day; overnight lows around –10°C to –12°C in rural UK areas (feels- like temperatures lower due to strong winds). Some of the coldest late- February and early- March conditions in decades. A record low March maximum of –4.7°C was set in parts of Wales.
  • Snow: Widespread accumulations of 5- 20 cm, with 40- 50 and more cm in higher or exposed areas (e.g., parts of Scotland, northern England, south Wales, and southwest England). Blizzards and deep drifts occurred in places.
  • Disruption: Hundreds of schools closed; major travel chaos on roads, rail (some trains stranded for hours), and airports (flights cancelled); power cuts; some communities isolated.
  • Water supplies: Rapid thaw after the freeze caused widespread pipe bursts; over 200,000 customers in England and Wales lost supply for more than four hours (tens of thousands for longer).
  • Casualties: At least 10- 17 weather- related deaths in the UK (including road accidents, falls, and exposure); dozens more across Europe (especially Poland and other eastern and central countries).
  • Economic: Significant costs (estimates around £1 billion and more in the UK); impacts on retail, deliveries, energy demand, and construction.

A weaker follow- up cold spell around 17- 18 March was nicknamed the “Mini Beast from the East”.

The event highlighted vulnerabilities in infrastructure (especially water networks after the thaw) and linked extreme mid- latitude cold outbreaks to polar vortex disruptions, which some researchers connect to broader Arctic changes. It remains one of the most memorable UK winter weather events of recent decades.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Here’s a clear comparison of the 2018 “Beast from the East” with the main comparable 2021 event and the situation in 2024.

Overview of the Events

Aspect2018 (Beast from the East / Anticyclone Hartmut)2021 (Storm Darcy / “Beast from the East 2”)2024
DatesLate February – early March (main phase ~24 Feb–4 and 5 Mar; mini follow- up mid- March)7- 13 February (peak around 7- 11 Feb)No single major equivalent event. Notable cold and snow periods in January and especially mid- late November
Primary CauseMajor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) disrupting the polar vortex → strong high pressure over Scandinavia → Siberian and Arctic easterly flow. Combined with Storm EmmaEasterly flow of cold air from eastern Europe (Ukraine and Black Sea region) and Storm Darcy (named by Dutch Met Service). Linked to an earlier SSW but air mass not as extremeVarious cold snaps (Arctic and continental air at times). Media often speculated about SSW-driven “Beast” returns, but none fully developed into a major prolonged easterly outbreak
Air MassVery cold polar continental (Siberian origin); one of the coldest late- winter outbreaks in recent decadesCold easterly, but milder and origin slightly less extreme than 2018 (Met Office noted it was not as bitingly cold)Variable; some Arctic outbreaks but generally less sustained extreme continental cold
TemperaturesWidely sub- zero by day; overnight lows often –10°C to –12°C or lower (feels- like much colder with wind). Some March records setDaytime near or below freezing in many areas; overnight extremes to –23°C at Braemar (UK’s lowest since 1995). Eastern Scotland –10°C to –15°C+January: lows around –14°C in Scotland (coldest January night since 2019 in places). November: significant cold (e.g., –12.6°C, coldest November night in ~15 years in some spots)
SnowfallWidespread 5–20 cm; 40–50 and more cm (locally higher) in higher/exposed areas (Scotland, N England, S Wales, SW England). Blizzards and driftsSignificant in eastern and SE England (10- 20 and more cm) and eastern Scotland (20- 38 cm at places like Aboyne). More regionally focusedNovember 2024: notable event with 8–15 cm in Midlands, up to ~28 cm in places (e.g., Loch Glascarnoch or Crymych); described as most significant November snow since 2010. January had more limited accumulations
Disruption & ImpactsNationwide: schools closed, major road, rail and airport chaos (trains stranded for hours), power cuts, communities isolated. Post- thaw water supply failures (200,000 and more affected). ~10- 17 UK deaths; dozens more across Europe. Economic cost ~£1bn and more.Significant but more regional (especially east and SE England and Scotland): roads closed, travel disruption, some school and COVID vaccine centre closures, power cuts in places. Fewer fatalities reported; less prolonged national chaosLocalized and moderate disruption from snow and ice (schools closed in places, travel issues), but nowhere near 2018 scale. No widespread “Beast”- level infrastructure crisis
Duration & IntensityLongest and most intense of the three, multi- week cold with two phasesAbout a week of severe conditions; coldest spell since 2018 but shorter and less extreme overallNo comparable multi-day national freeze and more heavy snow event

Key Takeaways

  • 2018 remains the standout event, the original and most severe “Beast from the East”. It combined extreme cold from a true Siberian air mass, widespread heavy snow (enhanced by sea- effect showers and Storm Emma), and major nationwide impacts including infrastructure failures after the thaw.
  • 2021 was a genuine “Beast from the East 2” (media and some forecasters used the name). It produced the coldest conditions since 2018 (with a notable absolute low temperature record for the period) and disruptive snow, especially in the east. However, the air mass was not quite as cold, the event was shorter, and impacts were more regional rather than nationwide.
  • 2024 had no true equivalent. Cold snaps and snow occurred (notably a significant November event), and media frequently hyped potential “Beast from the East” returns based on forecast charts and possible SSW activity. None matched the intensity, duration, or disruption of 2018 or even 2021. The term is often applied loosely by the media to any cold easterly spell.

In short: 2018 > 2021 >> 2024 in terms of severity and national impact for these types of easterly cold outbreaks.

The Met Office and meteorologists generally reserve strong “Beast from the East” comparisons for events involving prolonged polar continental air with significant snow and sub- zero conditions across large parts of the UK.

Stratospheric Warmings Can Triple Risk of Extreme Power Demand in Europe

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.

In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects

Infographic illustrating the effects of stratospheric warmings on extreme power demand in Europe, highlighting the impact of a weakened polar vortex and cold Arctic air. Key points include increased electricity demand, potential strain on power systems, and the geographical distribution of affected areas.
AI generated by Grok

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), temporary breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, raise the odds of extreme cold and resulting spikes in electricity demand across northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times, according to a University of Exeter- led study.

Normally, strong, stable westerly winds form the stratospheric polar vortex high above the Arctic in winter.

Roughly once every two years this vortex temporarily breaks down in an SSW. The stratosphere warms, but cold surface air can spill southward into Europe (and North America). Cold weather after an SSW, such as the 2018 “Beast from the East”, typically arrives a few weeks later, giving energy providers and governments a useful early- warning window.

Key findings

  • Extreme electricity demand was defined as at least 20% above average and is driven mainly by heating needs.
  • Impacts vary by country: Scandinavian nations (better adapted to cold) show smaller demand increases, while France (with a highly electrified system) sees a steeper rise.
  • The UK is currently relatively well buffered by gas central heating, but the shift toward electrification (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals will make cold, low- wind periods more challenging for grid reliability and costs.

Lead author Dr Regan Mudhar (now at the University of Lausanne) noted the clear statistical link between SSWs and extreme demand events, using the 2018 polar- vortex split as a prominent example.

Co- author Dr Hannah Bloomfield (Newcastle University) highlighted the growing relevance for energy systems as heating electrifies. Mudhar also observed that while greenhouse- gas- driven warming continues, SSWs are still expected to occur and bring cold snaps, so preparedness matters alongside emissions reductions during the renewable transition.

The peer- reviewed paper, “The influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on extreme European electricity demand,” appears in Meteorological Applications (DOI: 10.1002/met.70241) and was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council GW4 and Doctoral Training Partnership. The work builds on earlier research linking stratospheric variability to European weather and energy impacts.

Infographic illustrating Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and its impact on the polar vortex, showing temperature rise in the stratosphere over the North Pole before and during SSW events, depicting atmospheric wave propagation and altered weather patterns.
“Sudden stratospheric warming” (SSW), AI generated by Meta

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) mainly affect the Northern Hemisphere in winter. Their surface impacts (cold air outbreaks, shifts in the jet stream, storm tracks, etc.) vary a lot by location:

  • Northern and Central Europe (the focus of the recent University of Exeter study): Higher chance of extreme cold and elevated electricity demand (especially heating- driven) in the weeks after an SSW.
  • North America (especially eastern US and Canada): Can also bring cold outbreaks, though the exact patterns differ from Europe.
  • East Asia: Sometimes linked to colder conditions.
  • Southern Hemisphere, tropics and high Arctic: Impacts are generally weaker, different, or minimal for the classic “SSW → cold snap” pathway discussed in the European energy study.

In Europe, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) most commonly increase the risk of colder-than- average winter weather, especially in northern and central regions, with knock -on effects for energy demand.

Typical weather impacts

SSWs disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and often lead (within days to a few weeks) to a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This favours:

  • High pressure over Scandinavia or the North Atlantic (“blocking”).
  • A southward shift or weakening of the jet stream.
  • Easterly or northerly winds that draw cold continental or Arctic air into Europe.

Key regional patterns (based on observations and studies):

  • Northern and central Europe (Scandinavia, UK, Baltics, much of Germany, Poland, etc.): Higher chance of prolonged cold spells, more intense cold extremes (coldest days and nights often 2°C+ colder in SSW winters for parts of Scandinavia), and increased snow risk (especially in milder western areas like the UK and Ireland). Average winter temperatures can be ≥1°C cooler in SSW winters over large parts of Scandinavia.⁠
  • Southern Europe: Tendency toward milder, wetter, and sometimes stormier conditions, with increased precipitation and more wet days.⁠
  • Impacts are not guaranteed, only a portion of SSWs produce strong surface cold (roughly half or somewhat more, depending on the metric and region). Effects can persist for weeks to ~40- 60 and more days and vary by SSW type (more “radical” events tend to produce stronger, more widespread cold).

Classic example: the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe.

Energy and societal impacts

The recent University of Exeter- led study (published in Meteorological Applications) specifically quantified electricity demand effects:

  • SSWs raise the probability of extreme electricity demand (≥20% above average) in northern and central Europe by 1.5- 3 times. This is driven mainly by heating needs during cold weather.
  • Demand response varies by country: Scandinavian nations (already well adapted to cold) show smaller relative increases; France (highly electrified heating) shows steeper rises. The UK is currently buffered by gas heating but faces growing challenges as heating electrifies (e.g., heat pumps) under net- zero goals.⁠

Related studies (e.g., for Finland) also link SSW winters, especially when combined with the easterly phase of the Quasi- Biennial Oscillation, to colder temperatures, lower wind speeds, higher electricity consumption, and reduced wind power generation.

Broader effects can include transport disruptions from snow/ice, higher cold- related health risks, and stress on energy systems (particularly as renewables and electrification expand). Storm- related hazards in northern Europe are often less frequent after SSWs than after strong- vortex periods.

Practical note

Because the surface response typically lags the stratospheric change by days to weeks, an observed SSW can serve as an early- warning signal for energy providers and governments to prepare for potential demand spikes. Not every event produces extreme cold, but the elevated risk is clear and statistically robust for northern and central Europe.

Infographic on February 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event explaining its contribution to the 'Beast from the East' cold outbreak in the UK and Northern Europe. Includes details about polar vortex lobes, temperature anomalies, cold air flow from the Arctic, and impacts on various cities like London and Berlin. Features a timeline and visual representation of the stratospheric wind patterns.
the February 2018 SSW, which contributed to the “Beast from the East” cold outbreak across the UK and northern Europe.
AI generated by Meta

The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand

Abstract and Core Findings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) offer surface predictability up to several weeks ahead. They typically precede colder weather (including extremes) across the northern mid-latitudes. Because cold weather drives higher heating- related electricity demand, the authors investigate the SSW, demand link using:

  • ERA5 reanalysis data and a weather- driven electricity demand model for various European countries.
  • Subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI) project, focused on the February 2018 SSW.

Key results:

  • Extreme electricity demand (~120% of climatology, i.e., at least ~20% above average) is 1.5- 3 times more likely in the periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe.
  • For the specific February 2018 SSW (which preceded a notable European cold outbreak), the SNAPSI nudged experiments show a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk that can be attributed to the SSW itself.
  • This creates a practical “window of opportunity” for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks after SSWs are observed.

Methods Overview

  • Historical analysis: Identified 30 major SSWs (1979/80- 2024/25) using the Charlton & Polvani criterion on ERA5 10 hPa, 60°N zonal wind. Examined temperature-derived electricity demand in the 45 days after each SSW onset.
  • Attribution for 2018: Used SNAPSI ensemble forecasts with two stratospheric nudging setups (nudged to the observed SSW evolution vs. nudged to climatology). This isolates the causal contribution of the anomalous stratospheric state to surface temperatures and, via the demand model, to electricity demand extremes.

Broader Context

The paper emphasises that SSWs are one of the few sources of subseasonal- to- seasonal (S2S) predictability and that linking them explicitly to energy-system impacts (rather than just temperature) is novel. It also discusses the value of forecast- based attribution approaches for impact studies.

Title: The Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Extreme European Electricity Demand

Journal:  Meteorological Applications (Volume 33, Issue 5, e70241)

DOI: 10.1002/met.70241

Published: 8 October 2026

Provided: University of Exeter

ABSTRACT

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) provide a source of surface predictability up to several weeks in advance. They generally precede cold weather across the northern midlatitudes, including extremes. When it is cold, demand for heating typically increases electricity demand. We use reanalysis data and a weather-driven demand model for various European countries to investigate the relationship between SSWs and extreme electricity demand. We find that extreme demand of ~120% of climatology is 1.5–3 times more likely in periods following SSWs across northern and central Europe. We then use subseasonal forecast experiments from the Stratospheric Nudging and Predictable Surface Impacts project to explicitly attribute the impact of the February 2018 SSW, an event that preceded a cold weather outbreak across Europe. These experiments include nudging of the stratospheric state to either its observed or climatological evolution, allowing the causal impact of the SSW to be identified. We find a robust simulated increase in extreme demand risk attributed to the 2018 event. This indicates a window of opportunity for earlier prediction of extreme European electricity demand risks following SSWs.

Euronews Is Wrong, Climate Change Is NOT The Biggest Threat to Tourism

Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors.

An airplane flying above the clouds on a clear day.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

Euronews reports that climate change is the biggest threat to tourism, according to a travel commission CEO. This is nonsense. Weather has always interrupted travel; the CEO and Euronews did not even try to cite any data demonstrating it is becoming more common. Tourism is so huge in Europe, that the term “overtourism” is being used to describe the conditions of popular European cities that are experiencing huge numbers of visitors. Sometimes violent anti-tourist protests are breaking out in some European cities. Based on recent protests, if anything is threatening tourism there, it is the backlash against visitors in various popular European locations.

The article, “European Travel Commission CEO: ‘Climate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now’,” reports on a speech given by Eduardo Santander, who is the CEO and Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC), at a recent tourism summit put on by Euronews.

The ETC, according to their website, “is a non-profit organization representing the national tourism organizations of Europe.” Santander explained that tourism makes up 10 percent of Europe’s economy, and 10 percent or more of the GDP of Spain alone. Santander proceeded to say that tourism infrastructure needs more investment because of the pressures of “overtourism” causing congestion at airports and in the visited communities. He then goes off the rails and claims that “climate change is the biggest threat to tourism right now, by far.”

Euronews quotes him as citing anecdotes like train service interruption “because the rails are expanded because of the heat,” and cruise lines being unable to enter some European rivers due to drought causing falling water levels.

The truth is that bad weather has and always will impact tourism. Deadly or severe heat waves are not unprecedented for Europe, nor are their impacts. This is especially true regarding drought: one need look no further than the reappearance of “hunger stones” – ancient drought-indicating markers in European rivers and lakes which show that severe drought in fact occurred multiple centuries before industrialization.

The article also claims that people are fleeing hotter vacation destinations for cooler ones. It is true that more of the cooler parts of the world are seeing more tourism, but so are the warmer locations. Indeed, tourism is booming in many countries as greater numbers of tourists explore beyond historically popular destinations, including colder locales. Overall, France saw the busiest summer tourism season in 15 years this year. Data from this year showed that tourism increased more in parts of France like Normandy than they did on the French Mediterranean coast, but numbers are still well above pre-pandemic levels.

It is almost certainly not the heat itself, tourists looking for a beach vacation expect and want the heat… except that perhaps American tourists would rather not stay in the hotels that lack air conditioning.

If it were true that global warming was making it so that people were abandoning hot destinations, places like Mexico would be seeing declines, but this is not the case. Mexico’s attractive areas have also seen increased tourism despite known dangers, and Mexico is much hotter than France. Mexico’s tourism has surpassed pre-pandemic tourism levels such that it is expected to be one of the top five most-visited countries by 2040.

This year, Spain is expected to surpass its all time record for tourist visits. The Canary Islands are warm year round, and saw a record breaking year last year for tourism.

Recently, the massive increase in tourism has become so stressful to some European city residents that protests against tourists have broken out in France and Spain, again the two places where climate change is supposedly threatening tourism.

In France, residents complain about the “Disneyfication” of parts of Paris, overcrowding has led to strikes and unrest. In Spain it is worse: protests have broken out in Barcelona, the Canaries, and other locations, some involving violent confrontations this year and in 2025.

Just because weather and transit disruptions in some locations can cause tourists to modify their vacation choices, does not mean that climate change is a huge threat to tourism. Despite knowing that the numbers are improving almost everywhere, Euronews and Santander decided to exaggerate the threat in order to give lip service to the climate agenda. At the same time, they are deflecting blame for European policies and the actions of some of Europe’s citizens that discourage or make tourism less welcoming.

Tiny Baltic Sea microbes clump together to ferry carbon into the deep

Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.

The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.

Underwater scene featuring clusters of small blue particles and organic matter suspended in water, surrounded by bubbles.
AI generated by Grok

Tiny photosynthetic organisms (picocyanobacteria, mainly Synechococcus strains smaller than 2 micrometers) in the Baltic Sea can substantially help transport carbon from surface waters to deeper layers by forming colonies and aggregates that sink more readily.

A study from the Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences at Stockholm University (led by Martin Ekman, with co- author Rachel Foster) shows that the tendency of different strains to aggregate directly controls how much of their biomass is exported downward.

Individual cells are too small to sink efficiently on their own, but colony- forming strains appear more often in larger size fractions and in sediment-trap material. Their contribution to exported biomass was broadly proportional to their abundance in surface waters (often a large share of the phytoplankton community).

Researchers sampled surface water plus depths of 25 m and 75 m at Landsort Deep (a long- term monitoring site) during spring and summer, used sediment traps below the sunlit zone, and combined microscopy, flow cytometry, size fractionation (>10 µm vs. free/small cells), and genetic sequencing (16S rRNA).

Seasonal differences appeared between colony- forming and mostly single- cell strains, suggesting aggregation is an important ecological trait.

This matters for the biological carbon pump: phytoplankton photosynthesis takes up CO₂, and sinking biomass moves that carbon deeper, helping regulate atmospheric CO₂. Remineralization of the sinking material also contributes to oxygen- poor (anoxic) bottom waters in places like the Baltic Sea.

Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding how their biomass can still be exported is relevant for predicting carbon cycling and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors note that similar processes should be checked in other picophytoplankton-dominated regions, such as open- ocean gyres.

The peer- reviewed paper is “Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export,” published in The ISME Journal (2026).

Microscopic view of various microorganisms, including clusters of cells and filamentous structures, with a scale bar indicating 10 micrometers.
Micrograph of phytoplankton from Landsort Deep, BY31, the long-term monitoring site of the Baltic Sea where samples were taken for the reported study. In the upper left corner is a large diatom, Chaetoceros danicus, distinguished by its long spines protruding from the cell, a few large colonies and aggregates of picocyanobacteria lie in the background, and in the bottom middle are two pigmented and compacted colonies of the cyanobacteria Woronichinia next to two filaments of the N2-fixing cyanobacteria Aphanizomenon. Credit: Helena Höglander

The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a suite of biologically mediated processes that transfer carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the sunlit surface ocean (euphotic zone) into the ocean interior, sequestering it away from exchange with the atmosphere on timescales of months to millennia.

It is a major component of the global carbon cycle. Phytoplankton perform roughly half of Earth’s photosynthesis, drawing down dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, including CO₂) and helping the ocean absorb atmospheric CO₂. Without the BCP, atmospheric CO₂ would be substantially higher (estimates often cite ~200 ppm higher in a world without export).

The BCP is often discussed alongside the solubility (or physical) pump and the carbonate (or alkalinity and hard- tissue) pump. A related concept is the microbial carbon pump, which transforms labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into more refractory forms that can persist for centuries to millennia.

Core Stages of the Biological Carbon Pump

  1. Primary production: Phytoplankton (including diatoms, coccolithophores, and picocyanobacteria such as Synechococcus) fix CO₂ into organic matter (particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) via photosynthesis in the euphotic zone.
  2. Food- web processing and transformation: Much of the fixed carbon is rapidly recycled in the surface layer by grazing, respiration, and bacterial degradation (the microbial loop). A fraction escapes recycling and is available for export.
  3. Export from the surface: Organic carbon (and some inorganic carbon) moves downward via multiple pathways.
  4. Attenuation and remineralization: As material sinks or is transported, microbes and zooplankton consume and respire it, releasing CO₂ (DIC) at various depths. The depth of remineralization largely determines how long the carbon is sequestered.
  5. Sequestration: Carbon that reaches greater depths (or is transported into poorly ventilated water masses) remains isolated from the atmosphere longer.

Main Export Mechanisms (Pathways)

Modern frameworks often group processes into three broad categories (gravitational, migrant, and mixing/physical injection pumps), sometimes expanded into six more specific “particle injection pumps”.⁠

1. Gravitational (sinking) pump: The classic pathway, often the largest contributor to net export.

  • Sinking particles: individual cells (especially larger phytoplankton), phytodetritus, marine snow (aggregates of cells, debris, transparent exopolymer particles- TEP), and zooplankton fecal pellets.
  • Aggregation is critical: small cells (e.g., picocyanobacteria <2 µm) rarely sink alone but can form colonies or stick together into faster- sinking aggregates, as shown in the Baltic Sea study. Ballasting by dense minerals (opal from diatoms, calcium carbonate from coccolithophores) increases sinking speeds.
  • Marine snow and fecal pellets sink at rates from meters to hundreds of meters per day. Recent work highlights that the internal viscosity structure of aggregates influences bacterial colonization and degradation rates, more viscous particles degrade more slowly and can sequester carbon more effectively.⁠

2. Migrant (animal- driven) pumps

  • Diel vertical migration: Zooplankton (and some fish) feed near the surface at night and migrate to deeper waters by day, where they respire, excrete, and defecate, actively transporting carbon downward.
  • Seasonal and ontogenetic (lipid) pump: High- latitude zooplankton (especially copepods) accumulate lipid stores in surface waters during productive seasons, then migrate to depth for overwintering (diapause), releasing carbon via respiration or mortality.

3. Mixing and physical injection (particle injection) pumps:

These transport both particulate and dissolved organic carbon via physical processes acting across different scales:

  • Mixed- layer pump: Seasonal deepening and subsequent shoaling of the mixed layer detains organic matter below the new mixed- layer depth.
  • Eddy and submesoscale subduction pump: Intense vertical velocities at fronts and eddies inject surface water (and its organic carbon) downward.
  • Large- scale subduction pump: Associated with large- scale circulation and Ekman pumping.

Additional contributions come from DOC export (some DOC is labile and quickly remineralized; a fraction becomes refractory via the microbial carbon pump) and from the carbonate pump (formation and sinking of CaCO₃ shells, which has different chemical effects on seawater alkalinity and CO₂).

Global estimates of organic carbon export from the euphotic zone are typically in the range of ~10- 15 Pg C yr⁻¹ (with substantial uncertainty and rapid attenuation so that much less reaches the deep ocean). A significant fraction of century- scale sequestration can occur above 1,000 m in some regions (“continuous vertical sequestration”).

Efficiency, Variability, and Climate Relevance

Export efficiency (the fraction of primary production that is exported) and transfer efficiency (how much of the export reaches greater depths) vary strongly with region, season, ecosystem structure (e.g., size of phytoplankton, zooplankton communities), temperature, nutrient availability, and oxygen levels. Warmer, more stratified, nutrient- poor oceans are expected to favor smaller phytoplankton (including picophytoplankton), which may alter aggregation and export dynamics.

The BCP also influences oxygen distributions: remineralization of sinking organic matter is a major cause of oxygen minimum zones and anoxic conditions in places such as the Baltic Sea.

Climate change is projected to affect the BCP through shifts in primary production, community composition, sinking rates, remineralization rates (often temperature- dependent), and ocean circulation. Earth- system models currently disagree on the net future change in global export flux.

In short, the biological carbon pump is not a single process but an interconnected set of biological, chemical, and physical mechanisms whose combined effect helps regulate atmospheric CO₂ and sustains deep- ocean ecosystems. Aggregation of even the smallest photosynthetic cells (as in the Baltic picocyanobacteria example) is one concrete illustration of how microscopic traits scale up to influence global carbon cycling.

A bar and line graph comparing carbon concentrations of eukaryotes (Euks), Nostocales (Nost), and other cyanobacteria across specific dates.
Seasonal trends in Baltic Sea phytoplankton identified by microscopy and flow cytometry.
Figure 1 Seasonal trends in Baltic Sea… | Oxford Academic

Differential aggregation properties among Baltic Sea picocyanobacterial strains impact their export

Key Findings (from the abstract and available excerpts)

Picocyanobacteria (especially Synechococcus) contributes substantially to carbon export in the ocean, but the mechanism allowing their tiny cells (<2 µm) to reach depth was unclear. This study provides in situ evidence from the Baltic Sea (Landsort Deep area) linking cell aggregation and colony formation directly to sedimentation.

  • Picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70- 90%) to their abundance in surface waters.
  • Both cell aggregation (enrichment in the >10 µm size fraction) and sedimentation (enrichment in sediment- trap material) varied among different Synechococcus amplicon sequence variants (ASVs/strains).
  • A robust linear relationship exists between an ASV’s enrichment in the large-size fraction and its enrichment in sediment traps. This indicates that the degree of aggregation is a direct determinant of how much of that strain sinks.
  • Dominant aggregate- forming ASVs showed similar seasonal abundance patterns that differed from single- cell ASVs, suggesting that colony/aggregate formation is an important ecological trait influencing strain distribution and responses to environmental conditions (possibly nutrient dynamics).
  • By correlating microscopy observations with sequence data, the authors propose genotypes for the dominant colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes in the Baltic Sea.

Methods Snapshot

Researchers combined:

  • Size- fractionated water sampling (surface, 25 m, 75 m)
  • Sediment traps
  • Microscopy and flow cytometry
  • 16S rRNA gene sequencing of free- living vs. aggregated fractions and trap material

Broader Implications

These results help explain how pico- sized phytoplankton biomass is exported from the photic zone. Because picophytoplankton are expected to become more abundant in warmer, more stratified, nutrient-poorer future oceans, understanding aggregation mechanisms is important for predicting biological carbon pump strength and atmospheric CO₂ levels. The authors recommend investigating similar processes in other picophytoplankton- dominated regions (e.g., open- ocean gyres).

This is the peer- reviewed source behind the Stockholm University press release discussed earlier.

The full text is available via the Oxford Academic link (may require institutional access or open- access options).

Journal: The ISME Journal (2026), volume 20, article wrag214

DOI: 10.1093/ismejo/wrag214

Link: academic.oup.com/ismej/article/20/1/wrag214/8772006

Provided: Stockholm University 

Published: 27 August 2026

Authors: Martin Ekman ,

Elina Viinamäki,

Anders Verstraaten-Svensson,

Ryan W Paerl,

Anders F Andersson,

Helena Höglander,

Jakob Walve,

Rachel A Foster

Abstract

Picocyanobacteria contribute significantly to carbon export but the mechanism by which their biomass is transported to depth is unclear. By analyzing 16S rRNA gene sequences from sediment trap material and size-fractionated water samples from different depths in the Baltic Sea, we show that picocyanobacterial contribution to phytoplankton biomass export was largely proportional (70%–90%) to their surface water abundances. However, we also found that both cell aggregation (enrichment in >10 μm fraction) and sedimentation (trap enrichment) varied among Synechococcus ASVs (amplicon sequence variants). A robust linear relationship was identified between ASV enrichment in traps and ASV enrichment in the >10 μm fraction, suggesting that cell aggregation is a direct determinant of Synechococcus sedimentation. Seasonal abundance patterns were similar among the dominant aggregate-forming ASVs but distinct from those of single-cell ASVs, suggesting aggregate/colony formation being an important trait in determining distribution of Synechococcus strains and their response to environmental conditions. Correlating microscopy- and sequence-based abundances further allowed us to propose genotypes for the dominant Baltic Sea colonial picocyanobacterial morphotypes. Our results provide in situ data linking phenotypic characteristics of picocyanobacteria with sedimentation properties and several lines of evidence for a quantitative dependency between surface water picocyanobacterial aggregate/colony formation and sinking. These findings are important for our understanding of mechanisms involved in export of pico-sized phytoplankton biomass from the photic zone to depth and emphasize the need to investigate occurrence and environmental regulation of cell aggregation in other picophytoplankton-dominated waters (e.g. open ocean gyres).

Build power stations to protect the environment

Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.

A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’

Two professionals in safety vests shaking hands against a sunset backdrop with power lines.
Electrician Workers Shaking Hands Near High Voltage Circuit Line Tower

From CFACT

By Kelvin Kemm

Most of the Western world is obsessed with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. This sentiment typically translates into an obsession with cutting back on industry which produces CO2, such as fossil-fuelled power stations, steel foundries, and so on. So, it does not immediately strike one as a good idea to aim to cut down CO2 emissions by building coal-fired power stations in Africa. But it definitely would curtail CO2 emissions a great deal.

Right now, there are 600 million people in Africa who do not have access to electricity. But these people still cook meals for the family and need to keep warm in winter. How do they complete these very human tasks? They light fires. What do they use for fuel? They collect fuel from the immediate surroundings. That fuel consists of materials such as wood and dung. The dung they collect from their cattle, or maybe they get some from wild animals in the neighbourhood. The wood they get from the natural environment. They go out into the surrounding bush and collect dead trees and branches. They also chop trees down. This is hard work, I know that from personal experience because I have collected bush-wood a number of times. On camping trips and day excursions out in the bush, us South Africans quite frequently collect the natural dry dead wood to make a fire to cook lunch or dinner. It is a favourite pastime to do a BBQ, or as we call it, a braai.

For tribal people living deep in a rural area, not connected to electricity, having a braai lunch or dinner is not fun, but rather survival. Collecting the wood is considered women’s work, and it is not unusual to see African women walking long distances with large collections of wood on their heads. It is amazing the loads that they can carry balanced on their heads.

Burning wood and dung creates smoke, plus the gases emanating from all the impurities in the wood and dung, plus loads of CO2. So just imagine millions of fires burning every day. Imagine also how quickly one could cut the CO2 emissions, if all these people were connected to electricity. That would be great. It has to happen in due course. The electricity could be produced using coal-fired power stations, burning coal cleanly with great modern efficiency. Such power stations are known as HELE technology. The HELE is; High Efficiency Low Emissions.

As illogical as it may sound, the construction of HELE coal-fired power stations would be good for the environment and for human health, if built in large numbers in Africa.

But the no-coal zealots would never hear of such a thing. They are not interested in doing the right thing for the environment, they are interested in their will being the dominant force. They are playing a political game.

A while ago I met a Swiss extreme-green who was in South Africa as part of a group of greens who travelled here to ‘teach Africans how to be responsible citizens of the planet.’ During a coffee break discussion with him he said that Switzerland should cut its electricity consumption by 20%, because Swiss people could afford to live a less extravagant lifestyle. He was also of the opinion that Africa should be limited to a 10% increase in electricity consumption. By 10% he meant ever, not per annum. He then produced pictures and waxed lyrical about how Africans should be an example to the world, on how to live ‘in harmony with nature.’ The pictures he produced showed an African woman walking from the river with a bucket of water on her head. Another showed an African subsistence farmer ploughing with a wooden plough, drawn by one ox. The Swiss greenie enthusiastically explained to me how they were living in harmony with nature, leaving a small footprint behind… as if the concept were new to me. I replied that I would rather see the farmer get a tractor and a steel plough. The greenie just about had a fit, and pointed out that not only does a tractor produce CO2 it would also lead to leaks of oil and fuel into the ground…bad for ants, worms, etc. Furthermore, the tractor would cause fuel tankers to have to deliver fuel, he earnestly explained, leading to more CO2 emissions, etc. I also got the lecture on how bad it would be to pump water to the village… that would require pumps and lubricants.

I marvelled at the mentality of the Swiss fellow who really seemed to think that he could convince me that it would be helping mankind and the planet by blocking electricity and fuel into African countries.

Of course, I don’t for one moment expect the large-scale building of HELE coal-fired power stations in African countries to actually take place, even if the countries had coal, which they don’t. But certainly, what can be done is the large-scale electrification of African countries by using nuclear power, particularly Small Modular Reactors. From an environmental conservation point of view, SMRs not only have a very small physical land area footprint, but they also use so little fuel that there’s no large-scale fuel delivery footprint. An SMR can have fuel deliveries three or four times a year, using a truck modified to carry the fuel. There’s no need for a fuel conveyor belt or railway, as required to deliver fossil fuel continuously.

When advocating environmental solutions for the world, it really is necessary to think carefully about the real circumstances of the various people concerned.

Here in Africa it does not go down at all well when people from European countries arrive and sanctimoniously preach to us on how we should be ‘saving the planet’ their way because they say so.

Ancient Mantle Flow Fossilized Beneath Earth’s Oldest Ocean Floor

Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160–180 million years old).

The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench).

Illustration of ancient mantle flow beneath the Earth's oldest ocean floor in the Western Pacific, showing layers including seawater, sediment, oceanic crust, lower crust, and upper mantle, with annotations for fossilized mantle flow and seismic wave paths.
AI generated by Grok

Seismic analysis reveals “fossilized” traces of ancient mantle flow beneath the Pacific Triangle, the Pacific Ocean’s oldest preserved oceanic crust (about 160- 180 million years old).

The findings come from a study led by YoungHee Kim of Seoul National University and colleagues, published in Seismological Research Letters (announced by the Seismological Society of America on 7 October 2026).

Researchers analyzed seismic anisotropy, directional variations in wave speeds caused by the alignment of minerals (mainly olivine) in the upper mantle under the influence of flow, using data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018- 2019).

Key results

  • The Pacific Triangle lies ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench and marks the site of an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.
  • Anisotropy patterns in the uppermost mantle are spatially variable and complex. They partly align with both ancient (fossil) and more recent plate motions but cannot be explained by simple present- day plate- motion- driven deformation alone.
  • Some orientations reflect inherited structures from the plate’s long tectonic history (changes in plate motion), while others show mantle deforming around features such as a sunken lithospheric remnant (redirecting flow, consistent with earlier tomographic images) and possible localized hotspot upwelling near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the old triple junction (areas with weak or absent clear anisotropic signals).

This provides a rare window into past mantle flow beneath old oceanic lithosphere, the interaction between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and the evolution of Earth’s crust. Fossil anisotropy in the lithosphere can coexist with signals from ongoing upper- mantle flow.

The team is now analyzing data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to extend the picture and better separate contributions from regional flow, inherited deformation, and the subduction system.

Source: Seismological Society of America news release summarizing the Seismological Research Letters paper by Kim et al. (2026).

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The oldest large- scale oceanic crust still preserved on the seafloor is in the western Pacific Ocean, specifically in the region known as the Pacific Triangle (or Pigafetta Basin area, east of the Mariana Trench). 

It is generally dated to about 160-180 million years old (Middle to Late Jurassic).⁠

  • This crust formed at the birth of the Pacific Plate around an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges within the Panthalassa Ocean.
  • Direct sampling (e.g., Ocean Drilling Program Site 801) and magnetic anomaly data support ages around 167- 170 Ma for the main mid- ocean ridge basalts, with some studies indicating the plate began accreting as early as ~190- 192 Ma.⁠
  • Oceanic crust is continuously created at mid- ocean ridges and destroyed by subduction, so almost none survives longer than ~200 million years. The western Pacific holds the oldest extensive, relatively undisturbed examples.

Possible older remnant

A 2016 study using magnetic data proposed that crust in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Herodotus Basin) could be ~315- 365 million years old (Carboniferous–Permian, potentially a remnant of the ancient Tethys Ocean). This would make it the oldest known oceanic crust still in place under the seafloor.

However, this interpretation is more debated: the area is covered by very thick sediments, direct sampling is limited, and many standard references still cite the Jurassic western Pacific crust as the oldest well- documented large- scale oceanic lithosphere.

In summary: For the vast majority of scientific contexts and global seafloor age maps, the oldest oceanic crust is the Jurassic crust of the western Pacific (~160- 180 and more Ma). Older fragments exist as ophiolites emplaced on land (sometimes billions of years old), but those are no longer part of the intact ocean floor.

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Complex Upper‐Mantle Anisotropy Beneath the Pacific Triangle Revealed by Shear‐Wave Splitting 

The full text appears to be behind a GeoScienceWorld, SSA paywall or institutional access (attempts to retrieve the complete page content were blocked). The publicly available summary and related coverage provide the following key points:

Summary of the study

Seismic data from broadband ocean-bottom seismometers in the Korean- Japanese Oldest- 1 experiment (2018–2019) reveal complex, spatially variable seismic anisotropy in the uppermost mantle beneath the Pacific Triangle, a ~160- 180-million- year- old region of oceanic crust ~1,000 km east of the Mariana Trench. This area marks an ancient triple junction of spreading ridges.

  • Method: Analysis of shear- wave splitting (anisotropy), which records the lattice preferred orientation of minerals (primarily olivine) aligned by past and present mantle flow.
  • Main finding: The directional patterns of anisotropy are complicated. Some orientations align with both fossil (ancient plate- motion) and more recent plate motions, while others deviate from simple predictions based on present- day plate motion alone. Fossil anisotropy preserved in the lithosphere coexists with signals from ongoing upper-mantle flow.
  • Additional observations:
    • Systematic changes in wave direction indicate mantle flow redirected around a sunken lithospheric remnant (previously hinted at by tomography).
    • Weak or absent clear anisotropic signals near the Magellan Seamount Trail and the ancient triple junction, consistent with possible localized hotspot upwelling.
  • Significance: Provides a rare view of how mantle flow evolves beneath the oldest preserved oceanic plate, reflecting the interplay of plate-motion changes, inherited structures, and local features over geological time.

The research team is extending the work with data from the nearby Oldest- 2 array (closer to the Mariana Trench) to map regional trends and better separate contributions from inherited deformation, regional flow, and subduction- related processes.

For the complete abstract, figures, methods, and discussion, institutional or personal access to GeoScienceWorld / Seismological Research Letters is required. The SSA news release remains the most detailed open summary currently available.