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Greenland’s Ice Sheet Through Time: From Peak Glacial Power to Modern Melt

Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat) has a history of successive human migrations into an extreme Arctic environment and a polar climate dominated by its massive ice sheet.

The ice sheet has grown and shrunk over glacial- interglacial cycles.

Greenland during the Holocene (≈11,700 years ago to the present) is defined by the end of the last Ice Age, major ice- sheet retreat and partial recovery, vegetation colonization, climate oscillations driven mainly by orbital insolation changes, and the arrival of successive human cultures.

Illustration showing the changes in Greenland's ice sheet over time, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Includes different historical periods like Early Holocene, Mid-Holocene Minimum, Little Ice Age, and key takeaway emphasizing the ice sheet's dramatic changes. — AI generated by Grok

Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat) has a history of successive human migrations into an extreme Arctic environment and a polar climate dominated by its massive ice sheet.

Human presence in Greenland stretches back more than 4,500 years, with multiple waves of migration from what is now Canada and North America, interrupted by periods when the island was uninhabited due to harsh climate or lack of resources.

Early Paleo- Inuit cultures

Independence I (c. 2500– 1730 BCE): First arrivals in the far north.
Saqqaq culture (c. 2400- 800/400 BCE): Settled western and southern coasts.
Later Dorset culture groups followed. These hunter- gatherer societies adapted to Arctic conditions through specialized tools, dwellings, and hunting of marine and terrestrial animals.

Thule culture (ancestors of modern Inuit)

Around 1200 CE, the Thule people migrated from northern Canada into Greenland. They are the direct ancestors of today’s Greenlandic Inuit population and brought technologies such as umiaks, kayaks, and dog sleds that enabled survival in the high Arctic.

Norse settlement (late 10th- 15th centuries)

In 982 CE, the Norwegian- Icelandic explorer Erik the Red (Erik Thorvaldsson), banished from Iceland, explored and named the island “Greenland” to attract settlers.
Permanent Norse settlement began in 986 CE with the Eastern Settlement (southwest) and later the Western Settlement. These were primarily farming communities that also hunted and traded. Christianity was established early; a diocese existed at Garðar.
At its peak the Norse population numbered a few thousand. The last written record is a wedding at Hvalsey Church in 1408; archaeological evidence indicates the settlements disappeared around 1450–1500.
Causes remain debated and likely combined: onset of colder conditions associated with the Little Ice Age, declining trade with Europe, soil erosion, isolation, possible conflict with Inuit, and resource stress. The Inuit Thule culture expanded during this period.

European contact and Danish colonial period

After the Norse vanished, Greenland was inhabited solely by Inuit. European explorers and especially Dutch, English and Basque whalers made contact from the 16th- 17th centuries, trading (glass beads became culturally significant).

In 1721 the Danish- Norwegian missionary Hans Egede arrived near present-day Nuuk seeking Norse descendants; finding none, he began converting and trading with the Inuit. This marked the start of formal colonization. Denmark established a trade monopoly (Royal Greenland Trading Company) in 1776. After the 1814 Treaty of Kiel, Greenland remained Danish (Norway lost its claim). Epidemics of European diseases heavily impacted the Inuit population.

Modern era

1953: Colonial status ended; Greenland became an integral part of Denmark (a county) with Danish citizenship.
1979: Home Rule (hjemmestyre) granted.
2009: Self- Government Act expanded autonomy (control over most internal affairs, natural resources, etc.), while Denmark retains responsibility for defense and foreign policy. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark (Rigsfællesskabet) alongside the Faroe Islands.

Greenland has strategic importance (U.S. bases during and after WWII, Cold War radar installations such as Thule/Pituffik). Resource potential (minerals, rare earths) and Arctic geopolitics continue to shape its politics.

Climate

Greenland has a polar/Arctic climate (Köppen primarily EF ice- cap and ET tundra on the coasts). About 80% of the island is covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet, the second- largest body of ice on Earth (after Antarctica), up to ~3.2 km thick in places.

Regional variations

South and southwest coasts (e.g., around Nuuk): Milder due to maritime influence. Annual average temperatures near 0°C or slightly below; summers can reach 5- 10°C. Precipitation higher (often 600- 1,000+ mm/year), including rain in summer.
North and interior: Extremely cold and dry. Winters frequently −20°C to −30°C or lower; very low precipitation (100- 300 mm/year, mostly snow).
Strong winds, frequent storms, and long polar night/day cycles are characteristic. Coastal areas experience more variable weather influenced by the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.

Ice sheet and climate change

The ice sheet has grown and shrunk over glacial- interglacial cycles.

The oldest ice is roughly a million years old. In recent decades it has been losing mass rapidly:

Roughly 4,900 Gt of ice lost between 1992 and ~2020, contributing about 13 mm to global sea- level rise. Annual loss rates increased substantially after 2000.
Surface melt has accelerated (~1% per year since the 1990s), with more frequent extreme melt events (e.g., 2012, 2019, 2021). Drivers include warmer air temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation (blocking highs), albedo feedback, and oceanic influences.
Additional ice loss from glacier retreat at the margins has been quantified in recent studies, increasing total mass- loss estimates.
Projections: Even under moderate warming the ice sheet is committed to further sea- level contributions (centimeters by 2100, potentially meters over centuries to millennia if high warming is sustained). Complete melting would raise global sea level by ~7 m. Feedback such as melt- albedo and firn processes amplify loss beyond certain temperature thresholds.⁠

Paleoclimate evidence (ice cores, sediments) shows that parts of the ice sheet retreated significantly during past warmer intervals (e.g., ~416,000 years ago when summers were a few degrees warmer than today). Current human- driven warming is rapid compared with many past changes.

Climate has shaped human history: relatively milder conditions during the Medieval period supported Norse farming, while cooling contributed to their decline; Inuit cultures developed sophisticated adaptations to ice, cold, and marine resources.

A view of Greenland from space, showing its snowy landscape and surrounding ocean. — Greenland ice sheet as seen from space
Greenland ice sheet USGS – Greenland ice sheet – Wikipedia

The Holocene is conventionally divided into Early (Greenlandian, 11.7–8.2 ka), Middle (8.2–4.2 ka), and Late (4.2 ka–present) stages (ka = thousand years before 1950 CE).

Early Holocene: Rapid Warming and Ice-Sheet Retreat

The Holocene began with abrupt warming of >10 °C over Greenland within decades at the end of the Younger Dryas cold period (≈11.7 ka). Summer insolation at high northern latitudes was near its peak, producing the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM).

Summer temperatures across much of Greenland reached 3- 5 °C warmer than the mid-20th century (stronger and earlier in the north and east; somewhat milder in the south).⁠
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), which had expanded far beyond its present margins during the Last Glacial Maximum and was still connected to the Innuitian Ice Sheet in the northwest, retreated rapidly. Maximum recession rates in southwest Greenland occurred between ≈10.4 and 9.1 ka.⁠
Many local glaciers and ice caps disappeared or became much smaller than today. Perennial sea ice retreated, and marine and terrestrial species ranges shifted northward.
Ice- sheet volume continued to decline for several millennia after peak temperatures because of the long response time of the ice sheet. Modeled mass- loss rates reached hundreds of Gt per year at times.⁠

Vegetation colonized newly exposed land quickly: pioneer herb communities (grasses, Oxyria, etc.) appeared first, followed by dwarf shrubs (Empetrum, Vaccinium, Salix, Cassiope).

Middle Holocene: Ice- Sheet Minimum and Peak Warmth

Around 8- 5 ka (locally varying), Greenland experienced its warmest sustained conditions of the Holocene.

The GrIS reached its Holocene minimum extent and volume roughly 6- 5 ka (or slightly earlier and later depending on sector), contributing an estimated 0.15-1.2 m (commonly ~0.2- 0.5 m in many models) of sea-level equivalent relative to pre-industrial volume. In many areas the ice margin stood inland of its present position.⁠
Shrub tundra expanded; some southern areas supported denser vegetation, including birch scrub in favorable inland locations.
Ocean temperatures were elevated and Atlantic water influence was strong in some sectors.

Late Holocene: Neoglacial Cooling and Glacier Readvance

Declining summer insolation drove progressive cooling after ≈5–4 ka- the Neoglacial.

Temperatures fell on average ~3 °C from the warmest to coolest parts of the Holocene.
Local glaciers and ice caps regrew; outlet glaciers of the GrIS advanced in multiple phases (notably ≈2.5- 1.7 ka, 1.25- 0.95 ka, and especially during the Little Ice Age ≈1250- 1900 CE). The LIA generally marked the maximum Holocene ice extent in many regions.⁠
The GrIS slowly regained mass from its mid- Holocene minimum toward its pre- industrial size. Some models indicate it was still growing into the 19th–early 20th century as a delayed response to earlier cooling.⁠
Vegetation contracted somewhat in northern areas; conditions became more arid or colder in places.

Human Occupation

People first arrived in the mid- to- late Holocene, well after the main ice retreat:

Paleo- Inuit (Independence I, Saqqaq, Dorset cultures) from ≈4500- 2200 years ago (or slightly later for some groups), migrating from Arctic Canada. They adapted to marine and terrestrial hunting in a still- relatively warm but fluctuating climate. Abrupt temperature shifts appear linked to some settlement and abandonment episodes.⁠
A possible gap or sparse occupation, followed by Norse settlers (late 10th- 15th centuries CE) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and the Thule culture (ancestors of modern Inuit) from ≈1200 CE onward, who thrived through the Little Ice Age.

Industrial Era to Present

Anthropogenic warming has reversed the long- term Neoglacial cooling trend. Since the late 20th century, the GrIS has been losing mass at accelerating rates (hundreds of Gt/year on average), driven by surface melt, iceberg discharge, and glacier retreat. This loss is superimposed on the ice sheet’s incomplete recovery from Holocene warmth; present-day dynamics still carry a memory of the warmer mid- Holocene.⁠

In short, Greenland’s Holocene history is one of early rapid deglaciation and peak warmth, mid-Holocene ice minimum, progressive Neoglacial cooling and ice readvance culminating in the Little Ice Age, and a sharp modern reversal under human- driven climate change. The ice sheet’s slow response means today’s mass loss and future sea- level contribution are shaped by both recent forcing and the longer Holocene trajectory.

Map showing elevation of Greenland, Iceland, and surrounding areas with color gradient indicating altitude. — Historically, estimates of the timing of peak HTM warmth in Greenland have differed by thousands of years, and reconstructions of its magnitude have varied by several degrees, confounding our understanding of how temperature changes affect the ice sheet, ecosystems, and ocean conditions (e.g., Badgeley et al. 2020, Briner et al. 2016, Gajewski 2015b, McFarlin et al. 2018).
Past Warmth and Its Impacts During the Holocene Thermal Maximum in Greenland | Annual Reviews

Greenland’s ice cover has changed dramatically over the last ~25,000 years. No single simple static map captures the full sequence, but high- quality reconstructions exist, especially the PaleoGrIS 1.0 dataset (2024), which provides ice- margin isochrones (time- slice outlines) every 500 years from roughly 14,000 to 6,500 years before present.⁠

Here is a summary of the main stages, with references to the best available maps and visualizations.

Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈26- 19 ka)

The Greenland Ice Sheet was significantly larger. In most sectors it reached the continental shelf edge (and in places beyond). It was connected to the Innuitian Ice Sheet across Nares Strait in the northwest. Grounded ice covered a much greater area than today (estimates vary regionally; overall areal extent was substantially larger).

Maps of Northern Hemisphere LGM ice sheets show Greenland’s expanded outline clearly.

Late Glacial to Early– Mid Holocene Retreat (≈14- 6.5 ka)

This is the best- mapped interval. PaleoGrIS 1.0 reconstructs the progressive inland retreat of the ice margin using tens of thousands of geomorphological features and >1,400 dated points.

Key findings from the reconstruction:

At ≈14- 13 ka the ice sheet covered ≈2.61 million km².
By ≈6.5 ka it had lost about one- third of that area (≈0.89 million km²), approaching modern dimensions in many places.
Average areal loss rate ≈170 km² per year between ≈14 and 8.5 ka.
Retreat was highly regionally variable (faster in some fjord systems, slower elsewhere) and lagged temperature changes by centuries to millennia.⁠

The PaleoGrIS paper and its open data (shapefiles/NetCDF) contain detailed time- slice maps for the whole island and zoomed regional panels (e.g., Disko Bay, Scoresby Sund, Nares Strait). These are the most comprehensive published visualizations of ice- margin change during this period.

Mid- Holocene Minimum (roughly 7- 3 ka, peaking around 6- 5 ka in many models)

The ice sheet reached its smallest Holocene size. In southern and western sectors the margin commonly stood tens of kilometres inland of the present-day edge. Northern sectors show less inland retreat. Local glaciers and ice caps were also smaller or absent in many places. After this minimum the ice began a slow Neoglacial readvance.

Little Ice Age (≈1250- 1900 CE) to Present

Glaciers and the ice- sheet margin advanced to positions that in many places were at or slightly beyond the modern margin (the classic “historical” or LIA maximum). Since the late 19th and early 20th century, and especially since the 1980s- 1990s, the margin has been retreating again.

Present- day ice cover (2022 data): ≈1.73 million km², with an ice-margin length of ≈53,000 km.⁠

A standard thickness map of the modern Greenland Ice Sheet (BedMachine-based) is shown below. The ice is thickest in the centre (up to >3,000 m) and thins toward the coasts.

Recent margin change is also well documented: high- resolution 2022 ice-mask outlines (PROMICE) can be compared with 1980s positions, showing clear coastal retreat in many sectors.

Where to View Detailed Maps

PaleoGrIS 1.0 (best for 14- 6.5 ka isochrones): Open- access paper and data at Climate of the Past / Copernicus and associated repositories (shapefiles available for GIS use).
Present- day thickness and outline: BedMachine / NSIDC / GEUS PROMICE products.
Interactive or animated Holocene retreat simulations exist for specific sectors (e.g., southwest Greenland NASA/JPL visualizations).
LGM context maps appear in broader Northern Hemisphere ice- sheet compilations.

Map showing Radiocarbon event ages (a) and TCN exposure event ages (b) in Greenland, with marked locations differentiated by star and circle icons. The map includes geographic features such as Baffin Bay, the Greenland Sea, and Bathymetry and Topography color gradients. — CP – A Greenland-wide empirical reconstruction of paleo ice sheet retreat informed by ice extent markers: PaleoGrIS version 1.0

‘The Future of CCS Can No Longer Be Assumed’ (a supporter rethinks …)

Martin Jagger, a climate activist specializing in carbon capture & storage, recently wrote a sobering post on the progress of this technology in addressing the assumed- to- be climate crisis. This problematic approach is another example of the tears- in-the- ocean choices of climate mitigation policy.

Industrial scene featuring large pipes, equipment, and smokestacks, with text overlay discussing CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) and its future. — AI generation by Meta

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower.” (- Martin Jagger, below)

Martin Jagger, a climate activist specializing in carbon capture & storage, recently wrote a sobering post on the progress of this technology in addressing the assumed-to-be climate crisis. This problematic approach is another example of the tears-in-the-ocean choices of climate mitigation policy.

“For twenty years,” he begins, “I have argued that CCS has an important role to play in managing emissions from industries where practical alternatives remain limited.” The progress to date has been small, and the effect on global emissions minuscule. He explains:

Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower…. Closing even the gap between today’s operating capacity and the announced [EIA estimated] 2030 pipeline would require an extraordinary acceleration in permitting, financing, construction, commissioning and sustained operating performance.

The interest and potential investment are there, he believes, but “delivery” is small and problematic.

… announcements are not delivery, storage resources are not injection capacity, and nameplate capacity is not independently verified climate impact. The next phase of CCS must therefore be more demanding than the last. By 2030, success should no longer be measured primarily by the number of projects announced, memoranda signed, licences awarded or billions committed. It should be measured by verified net tonnes securely stored, year after year. That requires a tougher delivery model.

He alludes to the problem of getting from hyperbole to practice.

We have largely solved the problem of attracting interest and announcing investment. We have not yet solved the delivery problem. That distinction matters because CCS cannot indefinitely be judged by its potential. Nor should every delay be explained by saying that the industry simply needs more policy support or more public money. After two decades, the burden of proof must begin to shift.

Continuing:

That shift also requires greater honesty about how progress is reported. Too many of the institutions responsible for advocacy and industry leadership still present CCS largely as a good-news story. New projects, funding awards and headline capacity are publicised; delays, cancellations, operating shortfalls and the absence of verified storage receive much less attention.

Final Comment

Government incentives for carbon capture and storage, formalized in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (Section 45Q tax credit), should be terminated to please the free-market community and many environmentalists. [2] The whole initiative is inconsequential to global or regional climate, and projects have been opposed by local residents in the U.S. and elsewhere. [3]

[1] Martin Jagger’s bio reads:

I am an Executive Consultant in Energy Transition Strategy and Decarbonisation Delivery with a track record of bringing operator discipline to CCS policy and projects. I established Shell’s Carbon Capture and Storage Centre of Excellence in 2007 and helped shape international frameworks for long-term CO₂ storage that informed UNFCCC CDM mechanisms and regulatory guidance.

I currently advise sovereigns, regulators and innovators on areas where policy realism, technical feasibility and capital must align. My work tests the credibility of targets, the true scaling pathways for CCS and low-carbon fuels, and the structural barriers that stall momentum – especially FID drag, subsidy distortion, infrastructure mis-sequencing and the policy-performance gap.

[2] The tax credits since 2022 are $85 per ton of CO₂ stored for dedicated geologic storage projects and $60 per ton for CO₂ utilization projects with associated storage, increased subsidies from $50 and $35 (2018) and $20 and $10 (2008). A summary of federal largess from Taxpayers for Common Sense reads:

For decades, the federal government has provided billions of dollars in both direct and indirect subsidies to support CCS technology and projects. These subsidies have included research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits.

Over the past few decades some of these subsidies have gone to projects that have been repeatedly started and stopped, only to eventually collapse due to various economic issues and controversies (e.g., FutureGen, Kemper). Additionally, the 45Q tax credit, which has grown significantly in both size and scope, has been mired in fraud and waste. To date, the federal government has spent tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on CCS through research and development funding and tax credits, yet the technology is still struggling with widescale deployment issues due to high costs….

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress provided roughly $9 billion (in nominal dollars) in annual appropriations for DOE’s FECM from FY2010 to FY2023, with over $2.8 billion specifically directed towards CCS line items…. Congress appropriated $12 billion more to the technology through the infrastructure law (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, P.L. 117-58) and greatly expanded the already lucrative tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act (Public Law 117-169).

[3] There are currently 15 operating CCS facilities in the U.S. and another 120 projects under development. The top ten projects are (verbatim):

1. Stratos Direct Air Capture (DAC) Project

Companies: Occidental Petroleum (through its subsidiary 1 Point Five) and Origis Energy
Capacity: 500, 000 metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture powered by a dedicated solar portfolio
Source: Origis Energy Commissions 500 MWdc Swift Air Solar Projects in …

2. CF Industries Donaldsonville CCS Facility

Companies: Calpine Corporation and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: Approximately 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Low-carbon power generation from a new natural gas plant
Source: Calpine, Exxon Mobil sign CO 2 transportation and storage …

3. Calpine Baytown Energy Center CCS Project

Companies: CF Industries and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: A key component of Exxon Mobil’s contracted ~9 million metric tons per annum (MTA) portfolio
Application: Decarbonization of ammonia production
Source: Here’s How XOM Is Scaling Up Its CCS Footprint to Reduce Emissions

4. Google-Backed Gas Power Plant with CCS

Companies: Google and Mitsubishi Power
Capacity: Designed to capture 90% of CO₂ emissions
Application: Firm, low-carbon power for data centers
Source: Google Commits to First U.S. Gas-Fired Power Plant with Integrated …

5. California Resources Corporation (CRC) Carbon Terra Vault I (CTV I)

Company: California Resources Corporation
Capacity: Not specified; designed as a dedicated CO₂ storage facility
Application: CO₂ injection and permanent geologic storage
Source: California Resources Corporation Breaks Ground on California’s …

6. Sweetwater Carbon Storage Hub (SCS Hub)

Companies: Frontier Infrastructure and Baker Hughes
Capacity: Positioned to be one of the largest U.S. CO₂ sequestration assets (specific tonnage not provided)
Application: Multi-user CO₂ sequestration hub for industrial emitters
Source: Baker Hughes, Frontier Infrastructure Partner on Carbon Capture …

7. ADM Decatur CCS Facility

Company: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Capacity: Averages nearly 0.5 Mtpa (based on 4.5 million metric tons sequestered over a decade)
Application: Long-term industrial CCS for ethanol production
Source: ADM and Carbon Capture and Storage

8. Lake Charles Power Station Integrated CO₂ Capture Project

Company: Project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
Capacity: Not specified; large-scale pilot
Application: Advancing capture technologies for power generation
Source: [XLS] Sheet 1 – Climate Program Portal

9. Illinois CO₂ Injection Project

Company: Unnamed Texas-based developer
Capacity: Not specified; early-stage regulatory filing
Application: New CO₂ injection and storage project
Source: CP Daily Newsletter: Wednesday February 18, 2026 – Carbon Pulse

10. Bantam DAC Facility

Company: Climeworks
Capacity: Over 5, 000 tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture, noted as the largest operational DAC in the U.S. as of October 2025
Source: Facilities – CO 2 RE – Global CCS Institute

AI Fills the Gaps: New Diffusion Model Creates Seamless Global Rainfall Maps

Researchers at Chiba University (led by Assistant Professor Daiko Kishikawa, with Dr. Yuka Muto and Dr. Shunji Kotsuki) have developed a machine- learning method to fill gaps in global satellite- based rainfall maps.

An infographic illustrating a new diffusion model for creating seamless global rainfall maps. It highlights the process of filling gaps in incomplete satellite data, using AI to learn patterns and generate high-resolution rainfall maps. The image includes labeled sections for incomplete data, AI diffusion model capabilities, and a complete seamless map, along with a color scale indicating precipitation intensity. — AI generated by Grok

Global rainfall maps, such as those from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), are assembled from multiple satellites. Because satellites cannot observe the entire Earth at once, some areas lack valid observations. Traditional gap- filling approaches rely on earlier and later observations but often fail to fully capture how precipitation patterns evolve in space and time, leading to inconsistencies.

The team reframed the problem as a video- reconstruction (inpainting) task. They treat sequences of precipitation maps like video frames and estimate missing sections using information from nearby times and surrounding regions, plus auxiliary data. Their approach combines a three- dimensional (3D) U- Net convolutional neural network (which captures spatiotemporal patterns) with a 3D condition encoder. The encoder incorporates infrared satellite images, geographic coordinates, and time information. The overall method uses a conditional diffusion model.

Training and testing details:

The model was trained on hourly precipitation data from the ERA5 reanalysis (European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts) for 2020- 2023. Researchers simulated GSMaP- style gaps by removing corresponding areas from the complete ERA5 maps.
On 2024 test data, it outperformed other deep- learning baselines (standard U-Net, variational autoencoder, and generative adversarial network models) in prediction accuracy and image quality while producing spatially and temporally consistent rainfall patterns.
Sensitivity analysis showed that precipitation data and infrared images were the most important inputs.
When applied to real incomplete GSMaP maps (using ERA5 as a reference, since no complete GSMaP ground truth exists), it successfully reconstructed the missing regions.

Paper details: “Conditional Diffusion Models for Global Precipitation Map Inpainting,” published in Earth and Space Science (Volume 13, Issue 9; available online 24 September 2026; DOI: 10.1029/2025EA004666).

The method could support near- real- time applications for heavy- rainfall and flood monitoring, water- resource management, hydrological analysis, and disaster- risk reduction, particularly valuable in regions with sparse ground gauges or radars. Funding included support from JAXA’s Precipitation Measuring Mission, JSPS KAKENHI grants, and Chiba University programs.

This work is distinct from earlier Chiba University research (e.g., by Muto and Kotsuki) that used the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to improve gauge- based global precipitation estimates.

Three maps showing 'Input', 'Predicted', and 'True' precipitation data for different times (12:00, 13:00, 14:00) with a color scale indicating precipitation levels in mm h−1. — The left column shows precipitation maps containing simulated satellite-observation gaps, the middle column shows the reconstructed maps produced by the model, and the right column shows the corresponding complete target precipitation maps. Gray areas indicate missing observations. Credit: Assistant Professor Daiko Kishikawa and Dr. Shunji Kotsuki from Chiba University, Japan (Image source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EA004666)

Conditional Diffusion Models for Global Precipitation Map Inpainting

Abstract

Incomplete satellite- based precipitation data is a major challenge for global monitoring. Products such as JAXA’s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) have large missing regions because polar- orbiting satellites carrying microwave sensors cannot observe the whole Earth at once. Existing interpolation methods often create spatial discontinuities.

The authors treat gap- filling as a video inpainting problem and introduce a conditional diffusion model. It uses a 3D U- Net plus a 3D condition encoder that incorporates infrared satellite images, latitude- longitude grids, and physical time information to reconstruct complete precipitation maps while preserving spatiotemporal consistency.

Training data: ERA5 hourly precipitation (2020- 2023). Pseudo- GSMaP gaps were created by randomly applying real GSMaP observation masks to the complete ERA5 fields.
Evaluation: Calendar year 2024.
Result: The method produces more spatiotemporally consistent inpainted maps than conventional techniques and other deep- learning baselines.

The work demonstrates the potential of conditional diffusion models to improve continuous global precipitation monitoring.

Key Points

The approach outperforms conventional and other deep- learning methods at filling unobserved regions.

High-fidelity global precipitation maps are needed, but polar- orbiting satellites leave spatiotemporal gaps.

A diffusion- model inpainting method based on a 3D U- Net achieves strong spatiotemporal consistency.

Plain- Language Summary

Polar-orbiting satellites cannot see the entire planet at once, so large parts of global rainfall maps are missing. Current gap- filling methods mainly use neighboring hours and often produce unrealistic “seams” between observed and filled areas.

The team treats sequences of precipitation maps like video frames. A generative diffusion model learns to restore the missing parts by looking at nearby times, surrounding regions, and extra cues (infrared cloud images, geographic coordinates, and time).

Trained on complete reanalysis data with simulated satellite gaps (2020- 2023) and tested on 2024 data, the model fills gaps more smoothly and consistently than previous techniques.

Background and Motivation

Accurate, high- temporal- resolution global precipitation maps support extreme- weather mitigation, water- resource management, and policy.

Both GSMaP (JAXA) and IMERG (NASA) rely on microwave observations from polar- orbiting satellites and therefore contain large gaps. Conventional temporal interpolation prioritizes time consistency but neglects spatial consistency, producing discontinuities.

Method Overview

The approach is built on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). A forward process gradually adds Gaussian noise; a reverse process learns to denoise and reconstruct the missing precipitation.

Architecture: 3D U- Net (captures space + time) guided by a 3D condition encoder.
Conditioning inputs: infrared cloud imagery, topographic data, latitude- longitude grids, and physical time.
These multi- modal features are injected at multiple scales into the U- Net encoder blocks.

Training uses complete ERA5 fields with realistic GSMaP- style masks applied. The model is evaluated for accuracy, image quality, and spatiotemporal consistency against conventional interpolation and other deep-learning models (standard U-Net, VAE, GAN).

Significance

The method yields higher- fidelity, more consistent global precipitation maps and can support near- real- time applications such as heavy- rain and flood monitoring, hydrological analysis, and disaster- risk reduction, especially valuable in regions with sparse ground observations.

A free preprint with the full text, equations, architecture details, sensitivity analyses, and experimental results is available on arXiv. The published AGU version may contain minor updates or additional supporting information.

Journal: Earth and Space Science

DOI: 10.1029/2025ea004666

Provided: Chiba University, (AGU)

Authors: Daiko Kishikawa , Yuka Muto, Shunji Kotsuki

First published: 24 September 2026

Illustration depicting the forward and reverse diffusion processes across multiple time steps, with world maps transitioning from blue to red, indicating changes in diffusion states. — An example of forward and reverse diffusion processes applied to a global precipitation map. Conditional Diffusion Models for Global Precipitation Map Inpainting – Kishikawa – 2026 – Earth and Space Science – Wiley Online Library

Europe Cooks With Gas; Africa Breathes Smoke

From CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

In eastern Uganda, a mother can spend two hours a day gathering firewood to cook her family’s meals. Incredibly, 85% of Ugandan households still cook with wood and 13% depend on charcoal. Smoky indoor fires are estimated to cause thousands of premature deaths in the country every year, while clean-burning liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) reaches fewer than one home in a hundred. A billion sub-Saharan Africans are without clean fuel for cooking.

Standing between life and death is the European Investment Bank (EIB), the lending arm of the European Union that ended financing for fossil-fuel projects at the end of 2021. The World Bank runs a similar playbook. Last December, it issued a $200 million Clean Cooking Outcome Bond whose Ghana projects cover 245,000 electric cookers and 170,000 improved biomass stoves but not one LPG cylinder.

The body count Brussels ignores

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), household air pollution killed an estimated 2.9 million people in 2021. Soot from cooking fires has been blamed for nearly half of all deaths from lower respiratory infections in young children. Africa bears the heaviest share with an estimated 815,000 premature deaths a year.

WHO lists LPG and natural gas among the clean cooking fuels it wants expanded. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects gas to supply more than 60% of the African households that gain access to clean cooking through 2040. Its roadmap calls for spending about $2 billion a year to introduce clean cooking to 80 million people annually.

So, the world’s leading health agency calls LPG clean. The world’s leading energy agency calls it the main pathway out of smoke. Which guidelines, then, are the EIB and World Bank following?

Gas for me, firewood for thee

Look inside a European home. The European Heating Industry counted roughly 76.4 million installed gas boilers across the EU in 2023. Liquid Gas Europe reported that LPG met the heating needs of more than 20 million EU citizens. Eurostat data show that natural gas still delivers nearly 30% of all energy consumed by EU households, more than any other source.

Did a single European family wait for a foreign lender’s blessing before trading coal stoves for gas burners in the last century? Of course not. Gas lifted Europe’s women out of soot-filled kitchens, and they have never looked back.

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied about 45% of the EU’s gas and LNG imports. Brussels condemned Moscow and imposed sanctions. Yet the bloc imported a record 106 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, with Russia ranking as its second-largest supplier at about 14%.

The buying did not slow even as the ban approaches. In the first half of 2026, EU buyers took a record 9.97 million metric tons from Russia’s Yamal LNG plant, worth more than $6 billion and 16% above the year before, stocking up ahead of the full prohibition that begins at the beginning of 2027.

The double standard extends to Europe’s closest partners. Norway, bound to the EU through the European Economic Area, places no ceiling on petroleum development. Oslo awarded 57 offshore production licenses in January, after issuing 53 in 2025 and 62 in 2024. Each license grants rights to explore, drill, and extract. Across six years, Norway has handed out 333 of them. You will search in vain for an EIB statement condemning any of it.

A bloc that pays a geopolitical adversary for gas has no moral standing to deny an African widow a cooking cylinder.

Patricia Nanteza, Africa coordinator at WePlanet, told the Monitor that LPG is the most accessible clean option families have in the near term and that lifting the ban would free more households from biomass. When climate campaigners themselves plead for financing of gas, the ban has lost its last defense.

The EIB and World Bank policies that protect their climate scorecards while African women devote half their lives carrying water and children are lost to early death. That trade carries no scientific, moral, or economic justification.

Originally published at American Thinker, October 19th, 2026.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.

When Climate Shaped Civilization: How Warming and the Younger Dryas Transformed the Natufian Culture

The Natufian culture was a late Epipalaeolithic archaeological culture of the Levant (West Asia), dating roughly from about 15,000- 11,500 years before present (cal BP), or approximately 13,000- 9,500 BCE.

The Natufian culture (roughly 15,000- 11,500 cal BP) developed and changed against a backdrop of major late Pleistocene climate oscillations in the Levant. Climate strongly influenced settlement patterns, mobility, resource use, and ultimately the path toward agriculture, though the exact mechanisms and degree of impact remain debated.

An illustrated depiction of the impact of climate change on Natufian culture, showing transition phases during the Bølling-Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling periods. The image features people gathering crops, structures representing settlements, and diverse landscapes indicating environmental changes. — AI generated by Grok

It is named after Wadi en- Natuf (near Shuqba Cave in the West Bank), where British archaeologist Dorothy Garrod first identified it in 1928 during excavations.

Key Characteristics

The Natufians are especially notable as one of the earliest known societies to develop sedentary or semi-sedentary lifestyles while still relying primarily on hunting and gathering, before full agriculture. They are widely viewed as a transitional culture that set the stage for the Neolithic Revolution and the world’s earliest farming villages.⁠

Chronology: Commonly divided into Early Natufian (roughly 15,000/13,000- 13,000/11,500 cal BP) and Late Natufian (ending around 11,500 cal BP). The Late phase overlapped with the cooler, drier Younger Dryas climatic period.⁠
Geography: Centered in the Levant, modern- day Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Lebanon, and parts of Syria (with some extension toward the Euphrates). Key zones included the Mediterranean woodland hills, the Jordan Valley, and adjacent steppe areas.
Subsistence: Intensive hunting (especially gazelle) and gathering of wild plants, particularly cereals (wild barley, wheat, rye), nuts, legumes, and other seeds. They used flint sickle blades (often with characteristic sheen from plant cutting) set in bone or wood handles, plus abundant ground- stone tools (mortars, pestles, grinding slabs) for processing plants. Evidence includes early bread- like remains (e.g., at Shubayqa 1 in Jordan, ~14,400 years ago) and possible fermented cereal residues (e.g., at Raqefet Cave). Some sites show possible low-level cultivation or intensive management of wild cereals, though full domestication came later. Dogs appear as the earliest domesticates.⁠
Settlement and Architecture: Semi- sedentary base camps and hamlets with circular or oval semi-subterranean dwellings featuring stone foundations, hearths, postholes, and sometimes storage features. Larger open- air sites (such as ʿAin Mallaha (Eynan), el-Wad, and Wadi Hammeh 27) show repeated, long- term occupation. Caves and rock shelters were also used.⁠
Technology and Material Culture: Geometric microliths (especially lunates) are diagnostic. Rich bone- tool assemblages (including sickles), personal ornaments (shell beads, especially dentalium), and art (carved bone and stone figures, abstract designs, and rare figurative pieces such as the “Ain Sakhri Lovers”). Long- distance exchange of materials occurred.
Burial Practices and Social Life: Cemeteries within or near settlements, often with personal ornaments. Some evidence of secondary burial, skull treatment, and possible social differentiation. Ritual and symbolic behavior intensified, including possible feasting.

Significance and Major Sites

The Natufian marks a shift toward greater sedentism, intensified plant use, more complex social organization, and ritual investment. These changes occurred among the last purely foraging societies in the region before farming communities appeared. Successors include the Harifian (in the south) and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic (PPNA).⁠

Important sites include:

Shuqba Cave (type site)
ʿAin Mallaha (Eynan)
el-Wad, Hayonim, and Raqefet Cave (Mount Carmel area)
Beidha
Tell Abu Hureyra
Wadi Hammeh 27 (an Early Natufian open- air settlement near Pella, Jordan, with substantial architecture and recent finds of foundational burials)⁠

In short, the Natufians represent a pivotal “threshold” culture in human prehistory, bridging mobile Paleolithic foragers and the settled agricultural societies of the Neolithic Near East.

Map highlighting archaeological sites and regions along the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, with labels such as Abu Hureyra, Eynan, and Ein Gev. — A map of the Levant with Natufian regions across present-day Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Sinai, and a long arm extending into Lebanon and Syria

Wadi Hammeh 27 is indeed a significant Late Epipalaeolithic archaeological site near Pella (Tabaqat Fahl) in the Jordan Valley, Jordan. It preserves remains of a substantial Early Natufian settlement dating roughly to 14,500- 14,000 years ago (cal BP).

Key points that match and expand on the description:

It belongs to the Early Natufian phase of the Natufian culture (part of the broader Epipalaeolithic sequence in the Levant).
Excavations (notably by Phillip Edwards and others) uncovered evidence of a relatively large, semi-sedentary community, including multiple structures, hearths, and dense concentrations of cultural material.
Finds typically include ground- stone tools (mortars, pestles), microliths, bone tools, ornaments, and abundant faunal and botanical remains that illuminate early steps toward sedentism and intensive plant use in the region.
The site sits in the Wadi al- Hammeh drainage and is one of the better- preserved Early Natufian open- air settlements known from Jordan.

Ancient stone ruins on a hillside with two people exploring the site and a desert landscape in the background. — Protruding bastion along the line of the main inner wall at Khirbat al-Batrawy.
Image Gallery | Archaeology in Jordan, 2014 and 2015 Seasons | American Journal of Archaeology

Wadi Hammeh 27 chronology

Wadi Hammeh 27 is firmly dated to the Early Natufian period. The settlement was occupied for a relatively short span of roughly 500 years.

Key dating summary

Overall range: Approximately 12,500- 12,000 cal BC (or about 14,500- 14,000 years ago / cal BP).
This places it firmly in the Early Natufian, before the onset of the Younger Dryas.⁠
Radiocarbon evidence (main AMS dates from carbonized seeds and other organic material):
- Classic dates from Phase 1 (uppermost occupation):
  - OxA-393: 11,920 ± 150 BP
  - OxA-507: 11,950 ± 160 BP
  - OxA-394: 12,200 ± 160 BP
    These calibrate to roughly 12,000- 11,500 cal BC (with broader ranges possible).⁠
- Newer AMS dates from Phase 4 (foundational layers and burials, published in recent work):
  - Around 12,290- 12,438 BP, calibrating to approximately 12,700- 12,200 cal BC.
    These support an initial foundation of the burial ground and earliest occupation near 12,500 BCE.

Stratigraphic phases

The site has four main occupation phases (from lowest to highest):

Phase 4 (basal): Foundational burials established on travertine/bedrock (~12,500 BCE). Houses were later built directly over these graves. No further burials occurred after this phase.
Phases 3- 2: Intermediate architectural phases with continued occupation and commemorative features over the original graves.
Phase 1 (uppermost): Final substantial occupation with large oval stone dwellings, ending around 12,000 cal BC.

The entire sequence represents continuous or repeated use of the same location as a substantial “base camp” for several centuries, after which the site was abandoned. Sedimentation continued in the wadi after abandonment (e.g., Melanopsis shell date of ~11,100 BP).

In short, Wadi Hammeh 27 is one of the best-dated and earliest large open- air Early Natufian settlements in the southern Levant, spanning the later part of the Bølling– Allerød warming phase.

Map showing archaeological sites in the Levant region, featuring location markers and topographical details. — Map of the distribution of Natufian sites
Modeling identities among the first-sedentary communities: Emergence of clay personal ornaments in Epipaleolithic Southwest Asia | Science Advances

Wadi Hammeh 27 Climate Timeline

Wadi Hammeh 27 (Early Natufian, ~12,500- 12,000 cal BC / ~14,500- 14,000 cal BP) was occupied entirely during the later part of the Bølling- Allerød interstadial, a relatively warm and moist climatic phase that followed the Last Glacial Maximum. The site was abandoned before the full onset of the colder Younger Dryas.

Timeline (calibrated years)

Period	Approximate Dates	Climate Conditions	Relation to Wadi Hammeh 27
Late Glacial Maximum & early deglaciation	Before ~14,700 cal BP	Cold and relatively dry	Pre- occupation
Bølling- Allerød interstadial (warming)	~14,700- 12,900 cal BP	Warmer and wetter than preceding glacial conditions; expanded Mediterranean woodlands, higher lake levels in the region, increased plant productivity (wild cereals, oak, pistachio, etc.)	Full occupation of the site (~12,500–12,000 cal BC). Favorable conditions supported semi- sedentary base-camp life with substantial architecture, intensive plant harvesting (wild barley, etc.), and rich resource base. Local environment was moister than today, possibly with a nearby freshwater lake or high-water table.
Onset of Younger Dryas	~12,900- 12,700 cal BP	Rapid cooling begins (globally colder; in the Levant often cooler, with debated degree of drying)	Site occupation ends around or just before this transition (~12,000 cal BC). No clear evidence of occupation continuing into the full Younger Dryas.
Younger Dryas	~12,900- 11,500 cal BP	Cooler (and in many reconstructions drier or with altered seasonality)	Post- abandonment. The site was no longer occupied.
Early Holocene warming	After ~11,500 cal BP	Rapid return to warmer and wetter conditions	Long after the site was abandoned

Local environmental notes for the site

During occupation the surrounding landscape was more humid than the modern arid Jordan Valley, supporting oak woodland elements, wild cereals (especially barley), pistachios, lentils, and other edible plants.
The site sat in a spring- fed wadi system. Some researchers suggest it may have overlooked a temporary freshwater lake (sometimes called “Damya Lake”) or experienced elevated water levels related to the late stages of Lake Lisan.
After abandonment (~12,000 cal BC), regional lake levels continued to change, and the wadi eventually incised as base levels dropped following the final drying of Lake Lisan around 11,000 BP.

In short, Wadi Hammeh 27 flourished under the relatively benign, resource -rich conditions of the late Bølling- Allerød warming and was deserted before the climatic stress of the Younger Dryas fully set in. This places it among the classic Early Natufian settlements that benefited from the post- glacial climatic amelioration.

Graph depicting air temperatures in Greenland over the last 20,000 years, highlighting key periods: LGM, Pleistocene, Holocene, and significant climatic events such as Heinrich Event 1 and the 8.2 cold event. Below, a timeline of cultural periods from Kebaran to Iron Age. — The Natufian appeared at the time of the Bølling–Allerød warming, before temperatures dropped drastically again during the Younger Dryas. Temperatures would rise again at the end of the Younger Dryas, and with the onset of the Holocene and the Neolithic Revolution. Climate and Post-Glacial expansion in the Near East, based on the analysis of Greenland ice cores.^[11]
Climate and Post-Glacial expansion in the Near East – Natufian culture – Wikipedia

Climatic Context

The Natufian spanned the transition from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum into the early Holocene, encompassing:

Bølling- Allerød interstadial (roughly 14,700- 12,900 cal BP): A warmer and generally wetter phase that supported expanded Mediterranean woodlands (oak- pistachio forests) and abundant wild plant resources, including cereals. This period largely coincides with the Early Natufian.⁠
Younger Dryas (YD) (roughly 12,900- 11,500 cal BP): A sharp, globally recognized return to colder conditions lasting about 1,200- 1,500 years (somewhat longer or differently expressed in the Levant). The Late Natufian largely overlaps with this event.⁠
Onset of the Holocene: Rapid warming and wetter conditions after ~11,500 cal BP, coinciding with the end of the Natufian and the rise of the Pre- Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA).

Paleoclimate reconstructions (from pollen, speleothems, lake levels, charcoal, and isotopic data from gazelle teeth) show the Early Natufian flourished under relatively favorable conditions: higher precipitation (sometimes exceeding modern levels in places) and temperatures closer to or slightly below present- day values, fostering productive woodlands and cereal stands.

During the Younger Dryas, conditions became cooler (especially during the growing season). Traditional models emphasized strong drying and contraction of woodlands, but more recent isotopic evidence from gazelle tooth enamel indicates cooling without significant aridification in the southern Levant, water availability for plants remained similar or even higher than in the preceding phase. Seasonal contrasts may have been reduced, with potential effects on cereal productivity and harvest timing.

Climate Impacts on Natufian Culture

Early Natufian (warmer and wetter phase):

Favorable climate supported greater sedentism. Larger base camps and hamlets with durable stone architecture (e.g., Wadi Hammeh 27, ʿAin Mallaha) appeared, along with intensified plant processing (sickles, ground stone tools) and denser occupation. Resource abundance in Mediterranean woodlands and the Jordan Valley enabled semi- permanent settlements.

Late Natufian (Younger Dryas):

Cooler conditions are linked to shifts toward greater residential mobility, smaller or more dispersed sites in some areas, changes in burial practices, and possible intensification or broadening of diets (more small game, birds, or alternative plants). Some groups may have moved toward more climatically buffered zones such as the Jordan Valley, where wild cereals remained more productive. Site distributions show expansion into certain steppe or desert- margin areas.⁠

Not all researchers see the YD as a severe crisis that forced agriculture. Some argue Late Natufians successfully adapted through increased mobility and demographic adjustments rather than immediate cultivation. Continuity of occupation exists in many regions, and the Levant may have served as a refugium.⁠

Link to the origins of agriculture:

A long- standing hypothesis holds that YD stress on wild cereal stands (reduced productivity or reliability due to cooler temperatures) pressured sedentary populations, who had become dependent on these resources, to begin more intensive management or early cultivation. This is thought to have contributed to the emergence of farming in the subsequent PPNA after the climate improved. Other views emphasize that Natufians remained successful foragers throughout the YD and that agriculture arose more gradually under improving early Holocene conditions, or through a combination of social, demographic, and environmental factors.

Summary of Key Dynamics

Climate acted as an important but not sole driver.

The warm and wet Bølling- Allerød facilitated the Early Natufian florescence of sedentism and plant intensification.

The cooler Younger Dryas prompted adaptive responses (greater mobility in some areas, possible settlement shifts) without fully collapsing the culture.

The rapid post- YD warming then coincided with the transition to Neolithic farming villages. Regional variation was significant, Mediterranean core areas, the Jordan Valley, and peripheral steppes responded differently, and ongoing research continues to refine local climate reconstructions and their precise cultural correlations.

Mother Jones Blames Climate Change For Mass Migration, Data and Migrants Prove Them Wrong

A recent post at far-left news outlet Mother Jones, “There’s a Powerful, Hidden Force Behind Migration: Climate Change,” claims that climate change is a powerful driver of mass migration from the third world. This is false. The migrants themselves who were interviewed only bring up weather at all when pressed to do so, economic factors are the usually cited reasons for both illegal and legal attempts at migration to western countries. Extreme weather is not at all new to the regions discussed.

Text on a news article header discussing climate change and mass migration, with a desert landscape and a border fence in the background. — AI generated by Meta

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

A vast desert landscape featuring undulating sand dunes in warm tones, with greenery and a small settlement visible in the foreground, set against a backdrop of distant mountains and a partly cloudy sky.

The author claims that recent mass migration to Spain and other countries from places like Morocco is secretly being spurred on by climate change, and suggests that media does not often discuss that factor. This is immediately absurd, of course, because the mainstream media often cites climate change as a driver of both legal and illegal immigration. Climate Realism has recently debunked such claims regarding migrants from Somalia, here, for instance.

Undermining the initial claim of the headline and introduction, the author admits “[t]hat is not to say that the effects of climate change caused tens of thousands of people to risk their lives by attempting to swim to Ceuta. Economic forces were much more urgent motivators for Mohamed to leave his home.”

The migrant interviewed by Mother Jones says that the reason he is trying to leave Morocco is because of limited job opportunities. He does not mention climate change at all. But the author goes on to insist “after another summer of extreme temperatures and wildfires in the northern and southeastern provinces in Morocco, severe flash flooding and landslides in rural communities throughout the High Atlas Mountains, and the culmination of a seven-year drought after a winter of heavy rainfall across the country, climate change also may be an underlying factor in creating the economic crisis forcing so many to leave their homes.”

This is completely backwards. The reason these severe weather events have such a large impact on Morocco and other poorer countries is because they are weak economically in the first place, making it difficult or impossible for communities to invest in weather hardened infrastructure. The cited extreme weather events are not new to the region, and happen all around the world regardless of climate change.

Flash flooding is a feature of desert environments, once dry seasons are over. Likewise, drought for that matter is an obvious feature of the desert, especially lengthy droughts, which the author admits recently came to an end. Alternating periods of extended drought and deluge are the norm for Morocco in particular. The southeastern Morocco desert has recently seen dry lakebeds refill with water, when they have been mostly empty for a long time due to the recent drought period. Those lakebeds would not be there in the first place if they did not sometimes fill. Trying to claim that these natural patterns are evidence of climate change is nonsense.

As for the wildfires, again wildfire is not new to the region, and data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency joint project Copernicus show that there is no trend towards worsening wildfires in Morocco, neither in area burned nor number of fires. (See figure below)

A line and bar graph showing the yearly burned area in hectares (ha) and the yearly number of fires from 2002 to 2024. The bars represent the burned area, and the line indicates the number of fires per year. — Figure 1: Morocco Yearly burned area and number of fires, 2002-2024. Chart from Copernicus, https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/country.profile/charts/ba

Despite 2022 seeing a record bad fire year, 2024 was a record low for wildfires in Morocco since records begin in 2002 according to Copernicus data. Mother Jones is not interested in that, only the high years. Good scientists would not claim that 2024 represented a trend towards the elimination of wildfire, and likewise 2022 is not indicative of a trend towards climate catastrophe.

The Mother Jones post goes on to make the dubious claim that “North Africa and the Middle East are warming faster than the rest of the world, and Morocco’s agricultural sector—the cornerstone of the country’s economy—is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts like soil degradation and depleted groundwater.”

As discussed in “No, Atlantic Council, Climate Change is Not Making the Middle East and North Africa “Unlivable”,” even if the dubious claim that those regions are “warming faster than the rest of the world,” which has been claimed about every region of the whole world, the Middle East and North Africa have actually been seeing improving economic and agricultural conditions amid modern warming, disturbed only when violence and political unrest occur.

Soil degradation and depleted groundwater are resource management impacts, not climate impacts. For example, the same claim was made about depleted water resources in Nigeria, but population growth stressing the water supply around Lake Chad and other countries upriver building dams were the real cause. Natural drought under those conditions is bound to make things worse.

The most notable part of this article is the straightforward dismissal of the actual complaints of the migrants themselves, in order to push the climate claim. The so-called experts that the author interviews insist basically that the migrants don’t know what they are talking about, that climate change is the real background issue, instead of things like political corruption and violence making economies unstable in the region and hindering development.

The data do not show anything unprecedented happening with the weather, but it is clear that Mother Jones is not interested in facts.

“Bomb Carbon” from 1960s Tree Rings Reveals Biochar Stays Locked in Soil for Centuries

Researchers at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) developed a method using “bomb carbon” (elevated radiocarbon- 14 from 1960s atmospheric nuclear tests, preserved in tree rings) in wood shavings to track how stable biochar is when added to soil.

Close-up of a tree stump with a spotlight on 'Bomb Carbon 14C', showing bark and soil. In the background, a field of crops grows under a blue sky with clouds. The image suggests themes of carbon sequestration and environmental impact. — AI generated by Grok

Biochar is a charcoal- like material produced by heating biomass (here, wood) in low- oxygen conditions (pyrolysis). It is of interest for improving soil properties and as a potential long-t erm carbon sink to help mitigate climate change, with global estimates suggesting it could sequester carbon equivalent to roughly 6- 16% of annual anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. A key uncertainty has been how quickly biochar mineralizes (breaks down into CO₂) in soil versus remaining stable for decades or centuries, and how to distinguish its contribution from native soil organic matter.

The method

Atmospheric nuclear testing in the 1950s- 1960s roughly doubled atmospheric ¹⁴C levels, peaking around the mid-1960s. Tree rings from 1964-1967 therefore contain elevated “bomb” ¹⁴C. SLU researchers selected mature Norway spruce and Scots pine trunks from a Swedish clear- cut, identified the relevant rings, and used a professional woodturner to carefully remove outer wood and collect the thin, high-¹⁴C layers as shavings. These were pyrolyzed into biochar (tested at highest treatment temperatures of ~400°C and 650°C).

The resulting biochar had enough ¹⁴C enrichment (on average ~61.7 percent modern carbon higher than bulk soil organic matter in one report) to serve as a natural tracer. In a one-year laboratory incubation, they mixed it into soil (at 2% by dry mass), trapped emitted CO₂, and measured its ¹⁴C signature via accelerator mass spectrometry. This allowed them to quantify the share of CO₂ coming from the biochar versus the soil.

Key findings

CO₂ from biochar- amended soil showed up to about 10% higher ¹⁴C than controls, confirming a small but measurable contribution from the biochar.
Roughly 0.35% of the added biochar carbon converted to CO₂ over one year.
This implies high stability: at least half of the buried biochar is projected to remain in the soil after ~200 years (under the study conditions).
The method works with mature wood feedstock that resembles commercial biochars, offers higher precision than some natural- abundance ¹³C approaches, and avoids the need for expensive artificial isotopic labeling.

The work was published in Radiocarbon (Li et al., 2026: “Bomb ¹⁴C for tracing biochar mineralization in soil”). It was funded in part by Sweden’s Bio+ program (Swedish Energy Agency). Follow- up research is planned to examine biochar stability under climate- change scenarios in collaboration with researchers in Germany.⁠

This approach provides a practical way to study biochar persistence, its interactions with soil organic matter, and its viability for carbon sequestration without relying solely on short- term incubations or complex lab labeling.

A person using a wood lathe in a workshop, wearing safety glasses and ear protection, with wood shavings flying around. — To obtain wood formed during the years 1964–1967, the researchers engaged professional woodturner and wood artist Åke Landström from Glanshammar. Credit: Harald Cederlund

Bomb 14C for tracing biochar mineralization in soil

This is the open- access research article “Bomb ¹⁴C for tracing biochar mineralization in soil” by Haichao Li, Harald Cederlund, Elias S. Azzi, Cecilia Sundberg, and Erik Karltun (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences), published online 23 September 2026 in Radiocarbon (Volume 68, Issue 5, pp. 1146- 1154).

It is freely available under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC- BY) licence.

Core contribution

The authors introduce and validate a practical isotopic- tracing method that uses naturally elevated “bomb” radiocarbon (¹⁴C) preserved in tree rings formed during the atmospheric nuclear- test peak (1964- 1967). Biochar made from this wood carries a clear ¹⁴C signature that can be distinguished from soil organic matter (SOM), allowing precise quantification of how much of the CO₂ released from soil comes from the biochar itself.

Methods (summary)

Mature Norway spruce and Scots pine trunks (≥70 years old) were collected from a clear- cut near Uppsala, Sweden.
Annual rings from 1964- 1967 were identified by counting and carefully isolated by professional woodturning (producing shavings).
Biochar was produced by pyrolysis under N₂ at highest treatment temperatures of 400 °C (BC400) and 650 °C (BC650). The feedstock with the highest ¹⁴C enrichment (~172.9 pMC) was selected.
Biochars were acid- washed to remove carbonates, ground (<2 mm), and mixed into a loamy- sand agricultural soil (Cambisol, 1.4 % SOC) at a 2 % (w/w) application rate.
Soils were incubated for 365 days at ~20.7 °C and 60 % water- holding capacity. Emitted CO₂ was trapped in NaOH and analysed for total C and ¹⁴C (AMS) at multiple time points.
An isotope-mixing model calculated the biochar- derived fraction of respired CO₂. Priming effects on native SOC were also quantified.

Key results

Biochar was on average 61.7 pMC higher in ¹⁴C than bulk soil organic matter, providing a clear tracer signal.
¹⁴CO₂ from biochar- amended soils was consistently and significantly higher than from controls (p < 0.0001).
Early in the incubation (first 2 weeks) 8.3- 11.4 % of mineralized CO₂- C came from biochar; later this fell to 2.3- 7.5 %.
After one year, only 0.32 ± 0.02 % (BC400) and 0.35 ± 0.01 % (BC650) of the added biochar carbon had been mineralized. The two pyrolysis temperatures did not differ significantly.
BC650 produced a measurable negative priming effect on native soil organic carbon (–129 ± 20 mg CO₂-C kg⁻¹, or ~14.8 % relative to the control); BC400 showed essentially none.

Advantages claimed over other isotopic approaches

Higher precision than the natural- abundance ¹³C (C₃/C₄) method for detecting small biochar contributions.
Works with mature wood feedstock that closely resembles commercial biochars (unlike many laboratory pulse- labelled materials derived from young seedlings).
Relatively low cost and does not require specialised isotope-labelling facilities.
Uniform ¹⁴C enrichment because the trees grew continuously under elevated atmospheric ¹⁴C.

Conclusions

The bomb-¹⁴C method is shown to be effective for quantifying biochar mineralisation and its interactions with soil organic matter. It opens practical possibilities for longer- term studies of biochar persistence and carbon-sequestration potential under realistic conditions.

The paper includes supplementary material with additional figures on priming and sensitivity analyses. Funding came in part from the Swedish Energy Agency’s Bio+ programme.

Close-up of a cross-section of a tree trunk showcasing concentric growth rings with a small central hole, against a black background. The growth rings feature a red marking labeled 'S2'. — Log with younger wood turned away. The wood with the highest content of ‘bomb carbon’ is found in the growth rings between the red circles. Credit: Harald Cederlund

Journal: Radiocarbon (Volume 68, Issue 5, pp. 1146–1154)

DOI: 10.1017/rdc.2026.10247

Provided: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Authors: Haichao Li,

Abstract

Improving our understanding of biochar carbon (C) stability in soil is crucial given its potential for soil C sequestration. However, challenges with isotopic labeling of biochar restrict our ability to determine its fate in soil. Atmospheric nuclear bomb tests in the 1960s resulted in a 14C spike in tree rings, providing an opportunity to address this challenge. Here, we present a method that utilizes the elevated levels of 14C in wood from tree rings formed between 1964 and 1967 as a tracer to determine the proportion of biochar C in mineralized soil. Biochar was produced using wood from the 14C enriched tree rings as feedstock and thereafter used in a mineralization experiment capturing the emitted CO₂. We demonstrate that the bomb 14C-enrichment in the biochar is high enough to differentiate between CO₂ originating from either biochar or soil organic matter mineralization. The method can be used to address questions on biochar persistence, its interactions with soil organic matter and research that is needed to explore the potential to use biochar for C sequestration in soils.

The AI policy debate suffers from a dangerous plague of vagueness

“AI” is too broad to regulate as one thing. None of those everyday AI systems are actually what people are arguing about when they call for regulation, so just saying “AI” is way off the mark.

Because we “literally do not know what we are talking about,” policies passed in panic could be highly destructive.

A misty legislative chamber with shadows of people conversing around a podium, featuring words like 'AI', 'pause', 'race', and 'regulation' in the background.

By CFACT

By David Wojick

A robot holding a sign that says 'No AI' at a protest in an urban setting, surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. — Protest against ai technology robot holding no ai sign amidst determined crowd in urban setting

Debating policies in a rational manner requires a clear specification of the thing under consideration for regulation. The AI debate has nothing like that.

The AI debate does not even name the thing under discussion, as it is certainly not AI per se. Not being able to name the thing you are talking about is impossibly vague when it comes to policy making.

The field of AI is over 70 years old, and it has spawned a lot of different technologies, which are not part of the policy issue, so simply talking about AI is way off the mark.

Chess-playing machines that can beat grandmasters are an early example. There are now lots of AI game systems. My favorite is the blackjack program that saved me a lot of money by showing me I was no good at that gambling game.

In the late 1980s, expert systems became prominent. More recently, we got things like automated customer service systems and GPS routing systems. Now we have automated cars and military fighter drones. None of these are part of the AI policy discussion, nor are countless other AI systems in everyday use.

The AI issue mostly started with chatbots, which are typically called large language models (LLMs), so these are a good starting point. But there are lots of LLMs, some of which seem pretty harmless. The little AI summary that comes with each Google search, for example.

Plus, there are other AI systems besides LLMs that may be of concern. Examples include generative AI, diffusion models, and the interesting-sounding generative adversarial networks.

Then, too, there are AI agents that use models to perform instructed tasks. Concern about agents recently arose when a bunch started working together without being instructed to do so. We have no idea how many such systems exist.

The first thing a policy, law, or regulation must do is make clear who or what is covered and not covered. This is why regulations often have lengthy definition sections. They often create their own language in order to clearly specify the rules they state.

The AI policy debate has no such specificity. The things under discussion are not even named in many cases. As a Chinese philosopher friend of mine used to say, “We are talking in a vacuum.” Specifically, a cognitive vacuum which lacks needed substance.

Absent a clear specification of what we mean, any rules passed are likely to simply create destructive paralysis and confusion.

For example, people are talking about a pause in AI development. Which AI development? For that matter, what counts as AI development? This is another empty concept.

Let’s take Google. Last year, its R&D spending was over $60 billion. How much is AI related such that it would be paused? Some of it is labeled as AI development, but a lot of it is directly related to developments that have AI aspects, such as AI data centers.

It all depends on how AI is defined for the purposes of the pause, and there is not a shadow of a definition at this point. The potential for destructive confusion is immense. AI-related industry could run to trillions of dollars.

At the same time, there is much talk about an AI race, especially between America and China. I have yet to see this race defined or explained. Race to do what? What does winning look like? How are we doing?

It is not like there is going to be just one AI system, rendering all others obsolete. AI is a huge industrial domain with a vast number of diverse products. What then is this race?

The whole AI policy debate borders on being incoherent because we literally do not know what we are talking about. This is very dangerous because incoherent policies passed in panic can be highly destructive.

Hunter-Killer Membrane Destroys Forever Chemicals with Over 90% Efficiency

Researchers at Arizona State University (led by Bruce Rittmann of the Biodesign Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology), with collaborators from Rice University, Tongji University, the National University of Singapore, and Nanjing University, developed a catalytic “hunter- killer” membrane that both captures and chemically destroys PFAS (“forever chemicals”) rather than just concentrating them.

The membrane technology developed by Arizona State University researchers (led by Bruce Rittmann) and international collaborators is a catalytic hollow-fiber membrane system designed to both capture and chemically destroy PFAS (“forever chemicals”).

Researchers at Arizona State University (led by Bruce Rittmann of the Biodesign Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology), with collaborators from Rice University, Tongji University, the National University of Singapore, and Nanjing University, developed a catalytic “hunter- killer” membrane that both captures and chemically destroys PFAS (“forever chemicals”) rather than just concentrating them.

PFAS are synthetic compounds used in nonstick coatings, waterproof fabrics, firefighting foams, and many other products. Their extreme persistence comes from very strong carbon- fluorine bonds (often called the strongest in organic chemistry), which shield the carbon backbone and resist breakdown by conventional biological or chemical processes. Standard treatments (activated carbon, ion exchange, membrane filtration) remove them from water but leave concentrated waste that still needs disposal or destruction.

How the technology works

Hollow- fiber membranes are coated on the outside with palladium nanoparticles.
Pressurized hydrogen gas is fed through the interior of the fibers and diffuses outward to the palladium catalyst.
The palladium splits H₂ into highly reactive hydrogen atoms.
PFAS molecules from the surrounding water adsorb onto the same palladium surface.
At the catalyst surface, the reactive hydrogen attacks and breaks the C- F bonds (hydrodefluorination), stripping fluorine and converting the persistent molecules into less harmful components.

This “inside- out” hydrogen delivery is a key design feature: the membrane both concentrates the pollutants at the reactive surface and supplies the activated hydrogen needed to dismantle them.

Performance results

In a continuous 58- day laboratory test treating a mixture of six regulated- priority PFAS compounds, the system removed more than 90% of each compound and stripped away about 83% of the total fluorine, confirming actual chemical destruction rather than simple filtration. Rittmann described the mechanism as essentially universal across the six compounds tested.

Practical considerations and next steps

Palladium is expensive (roughly $50,000 per kilogram), so reducing catalyst loading is a major research priority. The approach is envisioned as a complement to existing concentration methods: conventional filtration would first shrink large volumes of contaminated water into a smaller waste stream that the catalytic membrane then destroys. Hybrid systems pairing the palladium catalyst with pollutant- degrading bacteria are also under development.⁠

This builds on earlier ASU work with membrane biofilm reactors (MBfR) and membrane catalyst- film reactors (MCfR) that combine catalytic defluorination with microbial degradation. While further engineering is needed for full- scale water treatment, the results demonstrate a promising route to permanently break down these persistent pollutants.

A digital illustration showing a molecular structure interacting with a membrane, featuring clusters of atoms and various colored molecules above the surface. — A palladium-coated membrane uses hydrogen to help break down PFAS “forever chemicals.” Credit: Jason Drees

The membrane technology developed by Arizona State University researchers (led by Bruce Rittmann) and international collaborators is a catalytic hollow- fiber membrane system designed to both capture and chemically destroy PFAS (“forever chemicals”).

Core design

Hollow- fiber membranes: Tiny tubular (“straw-like”) gas- transfer membranes.
Palladium nanoparticle coating: A thin layer of palladium nanoparticles is deposited on the outside of the fibers. Palladium acts as a catalyst.
Hydrogen delivery: Pressurized hydrogen gas (H₂) is fed through the inside of the hollow fibers. It diffuses outward through the membrane wall to the palladium layer.

How it works (“hunter- killer” mechanism)

Hydrogen reaches the palladium surface and is split into highly reactive atomic hydrogen.
PFAS molecules in the surrounding water adsorb onto the same palladium surface.
At the catalyst surface the reactive hydrogen attacks the strong carbon- fluorine bonds (hydrodefluorination), stripping fluorine atoms from the PFAS molecules.
This breaks the “forever” chemical structure, converting the compounds into less persistent (and ultimately more biodegradable) products.

The inside- out hydrogen supply is a key innovation: the membrane simultaneously concentrates the pollutants at the reactive surface and delivers the activated hydrogen needed to destroy them.

Performance

In a continuous 58- day laboratory trial treating a mixture of six regulated- priority PFAS compounds, the system:

Removed >90% of each individual PFAS.
Stripped ~83% of the total fluorine (confirming actual chemical destruction rather than mere capture).

Context and next steps

This builds on earlier ASU membrane technologies (Membrane Biofilm Reactor- MBfR and Membrane Catalyst- film Reactor- MCfR). Hybrid versions that combine the palladium catalyst with pollutant-degrading bacteria are also under development.

Main practical hurdle: Palladium is expensive (~$50,000/kg), so reducing catalyst loading is a priority. The technology is expected to work best as a polishing/destruction step after conventional concentration methods (e.g., activated carbon or ion exchange) have first reduced the volume of contaminated water.

The research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in October 2026.

Catalytic reactive-hydrogen membranes for rapid capture and hydrodefluorination of six PFAS of regulatory concern

This peer- reviewed paper reports the development and continuous testing of a hydrogen- based Membrane Catalyst -film Reactor (MCfR) for simultaneous capture and destruction of PFAS (“forever chemicals”).

It reports the development and continuous testing of a hydrogen- based Membrane Catalyst- film Reactor (MCfR) for simultaneous capture and destruction of PFAS (“forever chemicals”).

Key elements of the paper (from published summaries)

Lead institution & author: Arizona State University’s Biodesign Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology; senior/corresponding author Bruce E. Rittmann.
Collaborators: Researchers from Rice University (Texas), Tongji University (China), National University of Singapore, and Nanjing University (China).
Technology: Hollow- fiber gas- transfer membranes coated on the exterior with palladium (Pd) nanoparticles. Hydrogen gas is supplied from the lumen (inside) of the fibers, diffuses outward, and is activated on the Pd surface. PFAS molecules adsorb to the same surface, enabling catalytic hydrodefluorination (breaking of strong C- F bonds by reactive hydrogen).
Results: In a continuous 58- day operation treating a mixture of six regulatory-priority PFAS compounds, the system achieved >90% removal of each compound and ~83% overall fluorine removal (defluorination), confirming chemical destruction rather than simple separation.
Significance: Demonstrates a “universal” catalytic mechanism effective across the tested PFAS. The approach is positioned to treat concentrated waste streams after conventional separation processes. Palladium cost and catalyst loading reduction are noted as practical challenges; hybrid Pd–microbial systems are also referenced as ongoing work.

This builds on the group’s earlier Membrane Catalyst- film Reactor (MCfR) platform for catalytic reduction of oxidized contaminants using efficient H₂ delivery.

Direct full- text access may require institutional login or purchase via the PNAS site, as the open-page retrieval was restricted. The news coverage from ASU- affiliated and science outlets (e.g., Eurasia Review, Interesting Engineering, Bioengineer.org) provides consistent, detailed summaries of the findings.

Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2613985123

Provided: Arizona State University

Authors: Min Long , Ai-Shi Wang h, Welman C. Elias,, Thomas P. Senftle , Michael S. Wong, Jie Cheng and Bruce E. Rittmann

Abstract

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) persist in aquatic environments due to their ultrastable C–F bonds and poor susceptibility to conventional treatment. Here, we report an H₂-based catalytic-film membrane that enables PFAS destruction in ambient conditions by generating highly reactive surface (H_ads^*) and subsurface hydrogen (H_sub^*), the latter stored as β-phase palladium hydride (β-PdHx). Solid-state analyses evidenced β-PdHx formation and related lattice expansion with elevated H₂ chemical potential, revealing a structural mechanism that links hydrogen storage to catalytic defluorination. Mechanistically, the two hydrogen species play complementary roles: H_ads^*-rich Pd⁰ surface enabled PFAS capture through parallel adsorption to maximize interfacial contact with active H, whereas sustained H_sub^* supplied the energetic driving force for stepwise hydrodefluorination consistent with sequential C–F scission. As a result, across six PFAS of regulatory concern—PFOA, PFOS, PFNA, PFHxS, PFBS, and GenX—the catalytic membrane converted all contaminants toward fully defluorinated products. Long-chain PFAS were removed and defluorinated more rapidly than short-chain analogs, while GenX showed greater recalcitrance due to its ether linkage, weaker adsorption, and higher average C–F bond dissociation energy; nonetheless, GenX still exhibited removal and defluorination, with the production of 2-propoxypropanoic acid. The system also enabled continuous coremoval of all six PFAS in ambient conditions, with up to 96% removal and 83% defluorination over 58 d. These findings provide a mechanistic framework for how active hydrogen is generated, stored, and deployed in catalytic membranes, and identify engineered H₂-catalytic membranes as a promising low-energy technology for destructive PFAS treatment.

UN Climate Panic Rests on False Scenario and Buried Past

Guterres’ hysteria rests on three weak legs: a worst-case scenario that its own authors have now abandoned, a “pre-industrial” baseline drawn from one of the coldest centuries in 2,000 years, and almost total silence about warm periods that preceded multi-megawatt power plants and SUVs by hundreds and thousands of years.

For more than a decade, projections of flooded coasts and failed harvests were driven by RCP8.5 and its successor SSP5-8.5. The article says they assumed 12 billion people by 2100 and a near tenfold rise in coal use.

A dramatic landscape featuring glaciers with ancient artifacts, including a helmet and a stone tablet, under a moody sky, accompanied by the text 'UN Climate Panic Rests on False Scenario and Buried Past.' — AI generated by Meta

From CO2 Coalition

By Vijay Jayaraj

Three years ago, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters that “the era of global boiling has arrived.” In September he repeated the alarm. Launching the U.N.’s first report on temperature “overshoot,” he declared, “Humanity is speeding past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe.”

Start with the scenario. For more than a decade, a computer-based hypothetical case called RCP8.5 and its successor SSP5-8.5 drove the most frightening projections of flooded coasts and failed harvests. They assumed a world of 12 billion people by 2100 and a near tenfold rise in coal use, a future predicted by no energy market.

This April, the modelers who design scenarios for the next generation of climate simulations conceded the point. Their projections of high levels of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) had become “implausible,” and their update showed about 0.9 degrees Celsius less warming by century’s end. In August, the U.S. government proposed amending its Fifth National Climate Assessment so that results based on earlier projections can no longer be labeled “expected” or “business-as-usual.”

Now examine the yardstick. Every headline about crossing a 1.5-degree threshold measures warming from an 1850-1900 average. Those decades sit at the end of the Little Ice Age, an era when “livestock died, harvests failed, and humans suffered.” Choose the bottom of a cold trough as zero and every degree of recovery reads like a fever.

The most serious misdirection is what the panic merchants leave out. Earth’s climate swung widely long before anyone burned coal. A 2013 reconstruction in Science found that in comparison to today, intermediate Pacific waters were 2.1 degrees warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum 8,000 years ago and about 0.65 degrees warmer during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago. Tree rings from Finnish Lapland show that earlier estimates of warmth were too low.

Alaska’s retreating Mendenhall Glacier has exposed upright spruce and hemlock stumps more than 1,000 years old, a forest that grew where ice later advanced. At the Schnidejoch pass, more than 8,000 feet up in the Swiss Alps, melting ice has yielded more than 300 artifacts left by Neolithic, Bronze Age, Roman, and medieval travelers who crossed the mountains when the route was open. Certainly, temperatures warmer than today had prevailed.

Forecasts of heat-induced doom overlook the benefits of today’s elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. A NASA-led study found that a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated land grew significantly greener over a 35-year period, with CO₂ fertilization explaining 70% of the gain. The year after the world supposedly crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees, the world’s farmers brought in a record cereal harvest, according to FAO data.

Humans have always faced weather hazards. Floods, droughts, storms, heat waves, crop failures, and changing rainfall existed before the industrial age. They will exist whether a theoretical global average temperature is 1.8 degrees Celsius or 2.8 degrees above an arbitrary baseline. The question is not whether risk exists, but how people respond to it.

And this is where having energy supplies that are reliable, affordable, and abundant helps people manage nature’s challenges. Economies that become more prosperous, maintain reliable systems, strengthen infrastructure, and reduce vulnerabilities will do more to protect human beings from climatic hazards even if they do not satisfy U.N. emission targets.

The future trajectory of CO₂ emissions will be influenced overwhelmingly by the growth of energy demand in Asia and Latin America. There can be no justification for telling developing societies there that they must remain poor so that wealthy nations can preserve a global temperature target that has no scientific basis.

The U.N. fabricated an emergency, using a scenario its own modelers now call implausible, employing a baseline estimated rather than observed, and erasing warm eras that ancient farmers, traders, and travelers lived through. That is not science, but stagecraft performed for power and self-enrichment as it made the rest of the world poorer.

Originally published at Town Hall, October 19th, 2026.

Climate

Industrial Era to Present

Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ≈26- 19 ka)

Late Glacial to Early– Mid Holocene Retreat (≈14- 6.5 ka)

Mid- Holocene Minimum (roughly 7- 3 ka, peaking around 6- 5 ka in many models)

Little Ice Age (≈1250- 1900 CE) to Present

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