Energy Dominance 2.0: Permian Basin Edition

As noted in a previous post, the Permian Basin would rank 4th in the world in natural gas production, if US plays were ranked as nations. Well, a new EIA analysis of โ€œtight oil and shale gas productionโ€ ranks the Permian Basin, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia in crude oil production, above every other oil producing nation on Earthโ€ฆ

From Watts Up With That?

Guest โ€œMaking American โ€˜Shaleโ€™ Greater Againโ€ by David Middleton

As noted in a previous post, the Permian Basin would rank 4th in the world in natural gas production, if US plays were ranked as nations. Well, a new EIA analysis of โ€œtight oil and shale gas productionโ€ ranks the Permian Basin, behind only Saudi Arabia and Russia in crude oil production, above every other oil producing nation on Earthโ€ฆ

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook (Table 10b), March 2026, and Enverus
Note: Other contains the Avalon, Barnett, Dean, and Woodford plays

We added the Avalon, Barnett, Dean, and Woodford plays within the Permian Basin to our estimates by formation for Permian tight oil and shale natural gas production in our March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The Permian formations already included the Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp plays. EIA periodically reviews and updates our play designations according to the latest interpretation of geologic information in identifying crude oil and natural gas production from tight oil and shale formations. At the same time, we removed the Delaware and Yeso-Glorieta plays. These modifications are isolated to the Permian formations, resulting in a net increase for tight oil production by 0.2 million barrels per day (b/d) and shale gas production by 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for 2025, compared with previous estimates.

With this update, the shale and tight formations within the Permian Basin produced 6.0 million b/d of crude oil (44% of total U.S. oil production) and 22.2 Bcf/d of dry natural gas (19% of total U.S. marketed gas production) in December 2025.

We measure tight oil and shale gas production two different ways in the STEO: by major geologic formations (STEO Table 10b) and by geography (STEO Tables 4a and 5a). These two methods lead to differences in our estimates because surface-level activity does not distinguish between formations, which can overlap each other like layers of a cake and have differing geographical boundaries. In contrast to the Permian formations, the geographic Permian region produced 6.7 million b/d of crude oil and 29.1 Bcf/d of marketed natural gas in December 2025.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. Geological Survey; University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology; and Enverus
Note: The Wolfcamp play is located throughout the Delaware and Midland sub-basins.

The Bone Spring, Spraberry, and Wolfcamp plays continue to underpin most crude oil and natural gas production in the Permian, and together they are the largest oil producing shale and tight formations in the country, accounting for a combined 5.7 million b/d and 20.8 Bcf/d in December 2025. In our latest review of available geologic information, we determined that the Delaware and Yeso-Glorieta plays were conventional in nature. The removal of the Delaware and Yeso-Glorieta plays accounted for a reduction of 0.1 million b/d and 0.3 Bcf/d in our estimate of production from the geologic Permian and was more than offset overall by the addition of the new plays. Our estimate for the Permian geographic area did not change.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) released reports on the Avalon, the Barnett, and the Woodford plays located within the Permian Basin. The USGS reports identify these plays as continuous accumulations, a category that includes shale and tight formations and is commonly referred to as unconventional. Although USGS has not yet released a geologic report on the Dean (sometimes referred to as the Wolfberry), we also include it because it is a relatively thin formationโ€”nearly indistinguishable from its continuous accumulation neighborsโ€”located vertically between the Spraberry and Wolfcamp plays.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook (Table 10b), March 2026, and Enverus

Although the four newly added plays account for approximately 5% of Permian production, recent increases in drilling activity and production growth in the plays have been significant. Compared with 2022, these plays combined have more than doubled (+0.2 million b/d) oil production and increased natural gas production by 72% (+0.6 Bcf/d) in 2025.

Principal contributors: Trinity Manning-Pickett, Troy Cook

Tags: Permian, map, oil/petroleum, natural gas, shale, production/supply, tight oil, liquid fuels

EIA

At 6 million barrels per day, the Permian Basin tight oil production would rank third in the world, if US oil production was broken up by play.

EIA

MAShGA!!!

Looming ESA listing of Dunes Sagebrush Lizard roils desert Southwest

Officials at the Department of Interiorโ€™s Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are within weeks of deciding whether to list a small, light-brown lizard as either threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

From CFACT

Byย Bonner Cohen, Ph. D

Sceloporus undulatus, Lookout Mountain Trail on the northeast side of Glenwood Springs, 39.551 -107.314, Garfield County, Colorado, 15 Jun 2008.

Officials at the Department of Interiorโ€™s Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are within weeks of deciding whether to list a small, light-brown lizard as either threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

The dunes sagebrush lizard was proposed for listing under the ESA in late June, giving the public 60 days to submit comments to the FWS. Swamped by comments opposed to the listing, the FWS extended the comment period for an additional 30 days, until Oct. 2. In 2018, the Center for Biological Diversity CBD) petitioned the FWS to add the lizard to the endangered species list, and โ€“ after five years of study and bureaucratic inertia โ€“ a final decision is expected this fall.

As fate would have it, the lizardโ€™s habitat in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas overlaps with the Permian Basin, home to Americaโ€™s most productive oil and gas fields. The Permian Basin produces up to 5.8 million barrels of oil per day and has a sizeable impact on the economies of both states.

Fearful that an ESA listing for the lizard would impose strict land-use restrictions on the area, the oil and gas industry, joined by cattle ranchers, has argued that voluntary community conservation efforts to protect the creature are more effective than the heavy hand of the ESA.

In comments submitted Aug. 25 to the FWS, Tim Tarpley, president of the Energy Workforce and Technology Council, said the listing would impede planning and cause delays for the energy sector., without benefiting the lizard. The council represents 250 companies and over 600,00 workers, he noted.

Voluntary Conservation Agreements

Tarpley also pointed out that about 1.9 million acres of land in New Mexico are enrolled in what are known as candidate conservation agreements, under which landowners undertake certain practices that protect the lizardโ€™s habitat, obviating the need for ESA-style land-use restrictions.

โ€œWhile the Sagebrush Lizard favors the welcoming landscape of Texas and New Mexico, this same habitat plays home to our nationโ€™s most critical oil and gas developments,โ€ he said in his comments (Carlsbad Current Argus, Sept. 12). โ€œUnder these agreements, the industry has voluntarily committed to implementing practices that reduce or even remove threats to the lizard.โ€

โ€œPlacement of the Dunes Sagebrush Lizard on the endangered species list will further reduce production and development opportunities across our robust energy industry jobs in the region and infringe on property rights,โ€ Tarpley added.

Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Western Energy Alliance, voiced similar concerns in her Aug. 4 comments to the FWS.

โ€œThe proposed Rule stands to have a significant impact on Alliance membersโ€™ business planning and operations by increasing operational costs, delaying project timeframes, and limiting or precluding operations in certain areas.โ€

The New Mexico Cattle Growers Association also urged the FWS to forego a listing, citing its effect on agriculture.

โ€œGiven the extensive work that has been done to protect this species in this state and the effectiveness those actions have had, it would be improper to list the dunes sagebrush lizard as threatened or endangered in New Mexico,โ€ Loren Patterson, the associationโ€™s president, wrote in his comments, as reported by the Carlsbad Current Argus.

Adult dunes sagebrush lizards are about 2.5 inches long and spend their lives in the regionโ€™s low-lying shinney oak shrubs, where they hunt insects and spiders and have some protection from the weather and predators. Their habitat is the second-smallest of any lizard species in North America.

โ€œWe wonโ€™t stand by while the last dunes sagebrush lizards disappear,โ€ said the Center for Biological Diversityโ€™s Michael Robinson in a statement last year. โ€œEven as the oil and gas industry ruins our climate, itโ€™s also destroying the lizardโ€™s last home. Protection under the Endangered Species Act is this unique animalโ€™s last hope.โ€

The Center for Biological Diversity may just get its way. Biden administration appointees at the FWS are every bit as hostile to the oil and gas industry and cattle ranchers as is the CBD. Adding the lizard to the endangered species list will reduce fossil-fuel production in the Permian Basin, something both want.

Author


Bonner Cohen, Ph. D.

Bonner R. Cohen, Ph. D., is a senior policy analyst with CFACT, where he focuses on natural resources, energy, property rights, and geopolitical developments. Articles by Dr. Cohen have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Investorโ€™s Busines Daily, The New York Post, The Washington Examiner, The Washington Times, The Hill, The Epoch Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Miami Herald, and dozens of other newspapers around the country.

He has been interviewed on Fox News, Fox Business Network, CNN, NBC News, NPR, BBC, BBC Worldwide Television, N24 (German-language news network), and scores of radio stations in the U.S. and Canada.

He has testified before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, the U.S. House Judiciary Committee, and the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee. Dr. Cohen has addressed conferences in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Bangladesh.

He has a B.A. from the University of Georgia and a Ph. D. โ€“ summa cum laude โ€“ from the University of Munich.