All the claims about Net Zero from the temperature record through catastrophic warming to cheap renewables and becoming a green energy superpower are fake

By David Turver

“When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there.”

“Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid.”

Attributed to Valery Legasov in the mini-series Chernobyl.

Introduction

There is a series of steps you must go through to conclude that Net Zero is a good idea which basically go like this. Eigen Values has the story.

The Earth is warming because we are burning fossil fuels; the climate is extremely sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide concentrations and so we are facing a climate emergency which must be addressed by installing lots of cheap wind and solar power that will make us a green energy superpower with lots of green jobs in a green economic utopia.

The trouble is almost all the arguments used to support this line of reasoning are simply not based on truth. Western economies have been incurring this debt to the truth for at least two decades and now we are paying the price of Net Zero lies.

Before we begin and to avoid being called a “climate denier” I do believe that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and increasing concentrations will have a small impact on climate. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law indicates climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration, without unproven feedback, is about 1 K (or 1^oC) which might be a problem but is certainly not a crisis. It certainly does not justify total a rewiring of the economy.

The first problem is the temperature record itself. Over the years, Tony Heller has worked tirelessly to show how the global temperature record has been manipulated as shown in Figure 1.

In 2005, the GISS global temperature record showed about 0.55 degrees of warming between 1910 and 2005. By 2013, the amount of warming between the same two dates had grown to 0.75 degrees. In effect, the past has been cooled and the present has been warmed to exaggerate the amount of warming that has occurred. HADCRUT also tripled the warming between 1998 and 2013 between versions 4 and 5.

This is not the full extent of the problem, because recent analysis of Met Office’s temperature record by Ray Sanders and Chris Morrison shows that it relies on dodgy weather stations. First, more than three quarters of the weather stations used by the Met Office are CIMO Class 4 or 5, meaning they have a margin of error of 2-5^oC. It is inconceivable that such weather stations can produce a temperature record accurate to less than one tenth of s degree. Second, some of the weather stations used by the Met Office no longer exist. For instance, Lowestoft weather station has been closed since 2010 and the data for Lowestoft has been synthesised from nearby stations since then. However, the nearest climate stations to Lowestoft, Hemsby (four miles away), Coltishall (25 miles), Scole (26 miles) and Morley St Botolph (30 miles) are all closed too. Third, newer weather stations are highly sensitive to transient spikes in air temperature. The alleged temperature record at RAF Coningsby in 2022 occurred just as three Typhoon fighter jets landed.

If the fundamental temperature records are questionable, then everything that is built on them is questionable too.

Faulty Climate Models and Flawed Climate Sensitivity

Some estimates of climate sensitivity derive from the instrumental record, and these estimates must also be called into question because of the weaknesses identified above. These high estimates of climate sensitivity are then fed into climate models that consistently over-estimate global temperatures, see Figure 2 from the US Department of Energy’s Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate (p33).

Note that the low sensitivity (Low-ECS) column on the left more closely matches the observed temperature. The high sensitivity column (High-ECS) on the right over-estimate’s global temperatures. Note also that the amount of observed warming in the black lines from satellite measurements (UAH) is lower than all the instrumental records from HadCRUT, NOAA and GISTEM.

These faulty climate models are then fed with estimates of greenhouse gas emissions to create what are termed Representative Concentration Pathways. The high emissions scenarios such as RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 are then used to create scare stories about 4 or 5^oC of warming by 2100.

We now know these scenarios and their associated scare stories are fake because the IPCC has eliminated them from its analysis framework. This means that many thousands of scientific papers peddling climate catastrophe (maybe 97% of the total) were based on the false RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, the fake alarmism has caused 59% of young people to be “very r extremely worried” about climate change and 140+ central banks stress-tested their financial systems against it.

Fake Climate Emergency

The results of the faulty models, using fake emissions scenarios were used to justify the fake “Climate Emergency.” We know the Climate Emergency was built on a foundation of sand because even the IPCC has been unable to find much in the way of extreme Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs) even using the now withdrawn RCP8.5 (see Figure 3).

The dark blue cells indicate a high confidence of an increase and they are only really confident of an increase in land and ocean temperatures and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. The dark orange cells indicate a high confidence in a decrease. They have found a reduction in lake, river and sea ice. The white cells indicate a “low confidence in the direction of change.” Even using the now discredited extreme RCP8.5 scenario, the white cells predominate which indicates they cannot find evidence of extreme weather to justify a climate emergency.

The DOE report linked above comes to the same conclusion, saying:

“Most types of extreme weather exhibit no statistically significant long-term trends over the available historical record.”

In addition, they found no trend in global major hurricane frequency or wildfires. As might be expected, the Climate Emergency narrative built on faulty models and fake emissions scenarios is also fake.

Read the full story here.