From No Trick Zone

By Kenneth Richard 

Natural changes in cloud albedo, absorbed shortwave forcing (ASW), and solar activity (TSI, total solar irradiance) are “the dominant factors driving climate change.”

Dai Ato, an independent researcher from Japan, has completed a comprehensive regression analysis (Ato, 2026) using key climate variables and published the results in the Science of Climate Change journal.

Using widely accepted global temperature, specific humidity, solar activity, and albedo (cloud) datasets, Ato has reaffirmed the now-common conclusion (Koutsoyiannis, 2024, Berry, 2023, Nikolov and Zeller, 2024, Grabyan, 2025, Soon et al., 2023, Ato, 2024) that absorbed shortwave radiation forcing (via cloud albedo changes) and variations in solar activity are driving modern global warming.

Anthropogenic CO2, amplified by positive water vapor feedbacks, is not a primary climate change factor.

Similar to the dependence of water vapor or specific humidity on temperature, multivariate analysis supports the conclusion that changes in CO2 are a consequence or a “byproduct” of global sea surface temperature (G-SST).

CO2 thus has almost no explanatory power as a causal factor in 21st century climate change.

“CO2 is not needed as an explanatory factor. Therefore, these results demonstrate that CO2, a byproduct of preceding SST, has virtually no explanatory power for G-SST, even secondarily.”

“[W]ater vapor, the primary contributor to the greenhouse effect on Earth, has been a dependent variable of global SST at least since the year 2000.”

In contrast to CO2’s “negative explanatory factor” climate sensitivity, ASW [absorbed shortwave radiation] and TSI [total solar irradiance] have a “positive explanatory power” with far better sequencing and correlational alignment as causal agents in modern global warming trends, or climate change.

Comprehensive data analysis can thus be shown to undermine key tenets of the anthropogenic global warming theory.

“Furthermore, multivariate analysis confirmed that the combination of leading  ASW and TSI most effectively predicts G-SST  since 2000.”

“The sequence of influence on Earth’s climate is as follows: solar activity and albedo determine Earth’s SST and air temperature, and SST then exclusively determines G-SpHm [global specific humidity/water vapor concentrations]. Compared to these two indicators (ASW and TSI), the influence of atmospheric CO2 was confirmed to be effectively negligible.”

“These results indicate that from 2000 to the present, the dominant factors driving climate change have been solar activity and cloud variations by reducing albedo in the sky during the period. Consequently, the anthropogenic theory of global warming and the positive feedback theory are denied, according to the data of worldwide prominent climate research institutes. Furthermore, since human influence remains negligible even in the 21st century, the same holds true for the past.”