From NoTrickZone

By P Gosselin

Aroused by every model forecast heat wave

I don’t know how it’s been in other countries so far this year, but in Germany it seems a number of German weathermen have been getting acutely aroused every time a model sees a heat wave in the pipeline 2 weeks out. The media make headlines out of them.

Of all people, you’d think meteorologists would know the huge uncertainties these models have beyond 7 days. But, when you’re desperate for attention, you might succumb to the temptation to take them as being real enough and have yourself quoted in the press.

Germany has seen an unusually dry spring this year. This has likely raised hopes of a hot summer. The DWD German national Weather Service reports that spring 2025 in Germany was 0.9°C warmer than the 1991-2020 reference period. One reason for the warmth was unusually sunny weather. Spring 2025 in Germany saw 695 hours of sunshine, around 33% more than the reference period 1991-2020 (522 hours) mean.

The plentiful sunshine meant lower precipitation. Spring 2025 in Germany was the third driest on record. Only 96 liters of rain fell per square meters.

Spring has aroused forecasters

The warm dry weather has definitely aroused many of Germany’s weathermen, who are now caught up in full blown record-heatwave summertime fantasies. Lost from memory are the months of heavy rainfall seen from late 2023 to the end of 2024.

Over at German Weather Channel here, Jan Schenk  suddenly warned of “a 100-year summer” with temps soaring to 40°C in Germany. “One of the hottest summers ever is in the cards at 70 to 100%.”… “The previous summer of the century in 2003 could soon be replaced.” … “Over the course of the summer, a heat dome will form over south-eastern Europe, which will also spread to Germany. This means that we can expect a lot of high pressure and sunshine – and little rain. The highs will not stop at 30 or 35 degrees. We can already assume that the 40 degree mark will be exceeded several times in the summer of 2025. And the first heatwave in Germany will already appear in June.”

It’s important to point out that many weathermen today no longer forecast the weather, but instead simply report spectacular scenarios that models invariably churn out.

20°C could mean 40°C!

Over at Wetter.net, meteorologist Dominik Jung said the European Weather Model (ECMWF) is showing a“massive high altitude heat” for June 9, “Down on the ground, that would mean more than 35 degrees, maybe 38, 39, maybe almost 40 degrees,” says Jung.

So far, however, the ECMWF model is showing no such heat for early June. We can only speculate that Jung’s forecast has its origins in overly active fantasies.

So, what will become of Germany’s summer? A hot one of course cannot be excluded. But to claim a near record hot summer is 70-100% sure is nothing but meteorological attention seeking and headline-grabbing.