By Jim Steele

First the facts. Skeptics point to the Accumulated Cyclone Index (graphic A) that measures the global energy of all hurricanes. Lots of variability but NO TREND. Hurricane expert Chris Landsea presents a graph showing no increasing hurricanes, whether strong or weak since 1850 (graphic B).

But climate scientists who are not hurricane experts, will push a narrative that CO2 warming is making hurricanes more intense. But when hurricane storm tracks are followed, hurricanes only sustain intense category 4 or 5 winds for a very short time, and only in limited locations. As exemplified by Hurricane Ian, hurricanes often intensify as they travel northward over cooler surface waters, exhibiting the Temperature Paradox: which is exact opposite of what climate alarmists fearmonger!

Using the National Weather Services’ online model I measured the temperatures throughout Ian’s Storm track (graphic C). When Ian was a category 1 to the west of Jamaica surface waters were 29C. Approaching Cuba it intensified to category 3 even though surface temperatures dropped to 28C. After exiting Cuba, water temperatures fell further to 26.7C. And just before landfall on Florida’s west coast as a category 4, surface water temperatures fell to 25.4C.

A major factor controlling hurricane intensity is the amount of ocean subsurface heat in ocean’s barrier layers that gets supplied to the storm. Greenhouse infrared can only penetrate a few microns into the ocean’s surface before being immediately radiated away. The sun’s energy however, penetrates 20 to100 meter depths. When a layer of freshwater overlays salty subsurface water, the solar heated water cannot convect to the surface. So it is trapped and accumulates.

Where barrier layers are thin Category 1 storms occur as subsurface heat is exhausted and then hurricane suck up cold water that weakens the storm. Where barrier layers are thick, hurricane will intensify to category 4 and 5 (graphic D) In the Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi River supplies the fresh water, while the Orinoco and Amazon provide the fresh water to form barrier layers that intensify hurricanes in the Caribbean.

Similarly, the Bay of Bengal is known for many intense hurricanes, as the freshwater outflows from the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers generate strong Barrier Layers.

And it was a strong barrier layer and a natural El Nino that intensified Hurricane Otis to category 5 when it hit Acapulco in October 2023. Around the same time, Hurricane Norma made landfall as a Category 1. Hurricane intensification has nothing to do with CO2 climate change.