EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On December 5, 2023, during the COP28 international climate conference, the Government of Canada announced draft regulations to reduce oil and natural gas methane emissions by at least 75 percent below 2012 levels by 2030.

Methane (CH4) is a colourless, odourless, flammable gas present in the Earth’s atmosphere at low concentrations. It acts as a greenhouse gas (GHG). Water vapor is the main GHG, with a concentration in the atmosphere of 6,400 parts per million (ppmv). Carbon dioxide’s (CO2) concentration is 420 ppmv. Methane (CH4) has a concentration of about 1.9 ppmv, or less than one two-hundredths of that of carbon dioxide.

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2022 global methane emissions were around 580 million tonnes. Natural sources such as wetlands account for about 40% of the emissions, and the remaining 60% is from human activity. The emissions from human activity in turn are divided among agriculture (40-50%); coal mining (10-15%); oil production (10%); natural gas production (10-15%); waste water (7-10%); and solid waste (7-10%). Methane emissions from oil and gas thus account for about (60×25%=) 16 % of total annual methane emissions, including natural sources.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated a global warming potential (GWP)  for methane between 84 and 87 times that of CO2 when considering its impact over a 20-year period and between 28 and 36 times when considering its impact over a 100-year timeframe. 

In 2020, Canada’s methane emissions amounted to 92 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). That equates to about 3.7 million tonnes of CH4. That is 13.6% of Canada’s total GHG emissions in 2020 or 0.2% (two one thousandths) of global GHG emissions in 2020. The emissions were largely from fugitive sources in oil and natural gas systems (32.5 MtCO2e, or 34% of Canadian CH4 emissions); agriculture (30% of total Canada CH4 emissions); and  municipal landfills and industrial wood waste landfills (27% of total Canadian CH4 emissions).

China, India, Russia,and Iran, four of the 10 highest methane emitters, have not signed the Global Methane Pledge.

As is typical of global and national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there has been no published estimate of the costs and benefits of the actions involved.  The federal government estimates that the proposed new regulations will cost Canadian industry about $15 billion between 2027 and 2040.

One is left asking questions about the priority being placed on efforts globally and in Canada to reduce methane emissions. Fundamentally, why would Canada, a country whose methane emissions constitute 0.2% of the global total, decide to far exceed the methane emission reduction pledges made by other countries and to incur proportionately far more of the costs?

Canadians should demand answers.

The post Gas-lighting Alberta: Canada’s Oil and Gas Methane Regulations first appeared on Friends of Science Calgary.