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Nearly 600 California Quakes Prove Next-Day Earthquake Forecasts Actually Work

A decade- long prospective evaluation of earthquake forecasting models in California, tested against nearly 600 quakes (exactly 597 of magnitude Mw ≥ 3.95), shows that select models, especially certain versions of well- established operational ones, can reliably describe next- day patterns of earthquake numbers, locations, and magnitudes.

ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) and STEP (Short- Term Earthquake Probability) are two leading statistical models used for short- term earthquake forecasting, particularly for aftershock sequences and clustered seismicity.

Infographic detailing earthquake data analysis in California, emphasizing nearly 600 earthquakes studied to validate next-day earthquake forecasts, with visual elements showing fault lines, statistical models, and performance summaries. — AI generated by Grok

This comes from a University of Bristol-led study published in Nature Communications (August 2026; press coverage around October 14- 15, 2026). Researchers assessed 27 time- varying seismicity models (focusing on 21 for Mw ≥ 3.95) operated fully prospectively by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) from August 2007 to August 2018.

These generated 51,625 automated next- day forecasts for California, using only data available before each forecast day. The forecasts were compared to the 597 observed earthquakes (depths ≤ 30 km in the CSEP- California test region), which included major sequences such as the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor- Cucapah, the 2012 Brawley swarm, and the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa event.

Key Findings

Roughly 95% of the models produced forecasts statistically consistent with the number of observed earthquakes (using a Negative Binomial Distribution test that better handles clustering variability; a stricter Poisson test was less favorable overall).
About two- thirds were consistent with the spatial locations (epicenters) of the quakes.
About 95% matched the magnitude distributions.⁠

Individually, select versions of the Epidemic- Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) and Short- Term Earthquake Probability (STEP) models, widely used types for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by agencies in places like Italy, New Zealand, and the US, showed sustained consistency with the prospective data.

Some newer models and those incorporating smaller earthquakes as inputs performed relatively better, indicating progress in forecasting skill over time. Many models slightly overestimated rates but stayed within statistical bounds cumulatively; daily performance was stronger in quieter periods or certain aftershock sequences and weaker right after the largest mainshocks (as expected, since these models struggle to anticipate the exact timing of large events themselves).

Context and Implications

These are probabilistic forecasts of rates and likelihoods (where, when, how large activity is more likely over the next day), not deterministic predictions of exact events. No method currently predicts the precise time, place, and size of the next earthquake. The California test stands out for its scale (number of models, decade- long duration, and volume of prospective observations) compared to earlier CSEP efforts in Japan, New Zealand, and Italy.⁠

The results provide strong evidence supporting the use of these model types in public OEF systems for situational awareness, especially during elevated activity periods. The team offers recommendations (“model recipes”), open- source software (including pyCSEP tools and reproducibility packages), and benchmarking data to aid development of operational systems worldwide. Funding came from the Leverhulme Trust, USGS, and Statewide California Earthquake Center.

In short, the nearly 600 California earthquakes supplied rigorous, bias- resistant validation that certain next- day seismic risk models work as intended over long periods, bolstering confidence in their practical value for preparedness without overclaiming predictive power.

A grid of earthquake prediction model visualizations displaying various versions of ETAS, STEP, and alternative models with corresponding parameters. Each model projection covers a specific geographic area in California, showcasing expected earthquake counts. — Forecast maps generated by 21 M_w ≥ 3.95 next-day seismicity models and one time-invariant model (HKJ-ADAPTIVE-M2) for four different seismically calm days in California. Credit: *Nature Communications* (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-76243-7

Both are widely applied in operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems by agencies such as the USGS, Italy’s INGV, and New Zealand’s Earth Sciences agencies. They rely on well- established empirical laws of seismicity rather than deterministic physical prediction of individual events.

Core Shared Principles

Both models describe seismicity as a combination of:

A background (or spontaneous and long- term) rate of earthquakes.
Triggered (clustered) seismicity, where past earthquakes increase the likelihood of future ones.

They incorporate classic empirical relations:

Omori- Utsu law: Aftershock rates decay as a power law with time after a triggering event (roughly rate ∝ 1/(t + c)^p).
Gutenberg- Richter law: Earthquake frequency decreases exponentially with magnitude (more small events than large ones).
Productivity scaling: Larger earthquakes trigger more aftershocks.

These enable probabilistic forecasts of the expected rate (or probability) of earthquakes of certain magnitudes in space and time, often for the next day, week, or other short windows, without claiming to predict exact times or locations of individual shocks.

ETAS Model

Introduced by Yosihiko Ogata in the late 1980s, ETAS is a self- exciting point process (a type of Hawkes process). It treats every earthquake as a potential “parent” that can trigger its own “offspring” aftershocks, which can in turn trigger further events, forming a cascading, epidemic-like branching process.

The conditional intensity (expected rate) at a given time t, location, and above a magnitude threshold is typically expressed as: $λ (x, y, t ∣ H_{t}) = μ (x, y) + \sum_{i : t_{i} < t} K \cdot 10^{α (m_{i} - m_{c})} \cdot ν (t - t_{i}) \cdot s (x - x_{i}, y - y_{i})$ Where:

$μ (x, y)$ is the background rate (spatially varying, often from long-term seismicity).
The sum is over past events i.
$K$ K and $α$ α control productivity (how many aftershocks a magnitude $m_{i}$ mi event produces).
ν(t– ti) is the temporal decay (Omori- Utsu form).
s(⋅) is a spatial kernel (often isotropic or anisotropic, decaying with distance).
$m_{c}$ is a completeness magnitude threshold.

Key features:

Fully recursive: secondary and higher- order aftershocks are naturally included.
Parameters are usually estimated by maximum likelihood from a catalog (sometimes Bayesian methods are used for robustness).
Flexible spatial kernels and variants exist (e.g., adaptive smoothing, incorporation of smaller events, or slow- slip effects).
Strengths: Captures cascading triggering well; widely tested and extended; strong theoretical foundation.
Limitations: Can be computationally intensive; sensitive to catalog incompleteness; spatial kernels are often simplified (isotropic by default).

ETAS and its variants performed well in the long- term California CSEP tests referenced in recent studies.

STEP Model

Developed by Gerstenberger and colleagues (around 2004- 2005), STEP builds on the simpler Reasenberg- Jones (1989) aftershock model and was designed for practical, real- time use (including early USGS aftershock forecasts).

It also has background and clustered components, but differs in structure:

Background: Often taken from a long- term seismic hazard model (e.g., Frankel et al. smoothed seismicity or national hazard maps).
Clustering: Uses the Reasenberg- Jones formulation for aftershock rates after a mainshock, extended to multiple sequences. Parameters can be generic (from past sequences in similar settings) or sequence- specific (updated as new events occur).
Combination rule: Rates from background and aftershock components are typically combined by taking the maximum (rather than summing), which helps avoid double- counting in active areas.
Spatial component: Empirically derived decay with distance; earthquakes are classified into primary and secondary events or clusters, with zone- specific adjustments.
Variants such as STEPJAVA (a Java reimplementation) appear in CSEP experiments.

Key features:

More modular and heuristic: Combines distinct model pieces rather than a single unified branching process.
Computationally efficient and analytic in many implementations.
Easily integrates with official long- term hazard maps for consistency.
Strengths: Practical for operational use; adapts parameters per sequence; often produces focused “hot spots”.
Limitations: Less fully recursive than classic ETAS in some formulations; spatial rules can be more empirical.

Main Differences

Aspect	ETAS	STEP
Triggering style	Fully recursive branching (every event can trigger others equally)	Cluster and sequence- oriented; primary vs. secondary events
Rate combination	Background and sum of all triggers	Often max(background, clustered rates)
Parameter handling	Global or regionally fitted; fixed during forecast windows	Generic and sequence- specific; updated as events accrue
Spatial treatment	Continuous kernels	Empirical zones and distance decay
Computational style	Point-process intensity	More modular, often faster for real- time use

In prospective tests (including California CSEP experiments spanning ~2007- 2018), select versions of both models showed good consistency with observed numbers, locations, and magnitudes of moderate earthquakes, supporting their use in public OEF.

Performance is often comparable, with results depending on the specific variant, catalog, and evaluation metric; neither perfectly forecasts the occurrence of large mainshocks themselves (a known limitation of pure clustering models).

Practical Use

Both generate probabilistic rate maps or expected counts for short time windows. They are routinely updated with new catalog data. Modern research continues to refine them (e.g., better handling of incompleteness, anisotropy, swarms, or hybrid deep- learning combinations).

In short, ETAS emphasizes a unified, cascading statistical process, while STEP emphasizes practical, adaptive combination of background hazard and aftershock sequences. Together they form the backbone of many current short- term seismic risk forecasts.

Map of significant earthquakes in California and surrounding areas from 2008 to 2018, displaying earthquake locations with magnitudes indicated by circle sizes and colors representing different years. — Image shows spatial earthquake forecasts generated by the models for specific days. Bright colours denote regions of relatively high expected seismicity, while dark regions indicate the opposite.
Image credit: J. Bayona

Select earthquake forecasting models demonstrate consistency with prospective decadal observations in California

Abstract Summary

Earthquake forecasting systems are operational in several countries.

To validate them rigorously, the authors prospectively tested 27 forecasting models (including types used for operational earthquake forecasting) operated by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).

From August 2007 to August 2018 these models produced 51,625 next- day Mw ≥ 3.95 seismicity forecasts for California. The forecasts were evaluated against 597 observed Mw ≥ 3.95 earthquakes (depths ≤ 30 km) using community- vetted statistical methods.

Background and Methods

CSEP ran fully automated, prospective experiments to avoid retrospective bias.

Models included variants of:

Epidemic- Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)
Short- Term Earthquake Probability (STEP)
Alternatives (e.g., PPE, EEPAS)
Nonparametric and ensemble models

Forecasts were issued daily at midnight UTC for the next 24 hours on a spatial grid, using only prior data.

Evaluation used CSEP tests for number (Poisson and Negative Binomial Distribution), spatial distribution, and magnitude distribution, plus comparisons against a time- invariant smoothed seismicity benchmark (HKJ-ADAPTIVE-M2).

Focus was primarily on the 21 models targeting Mw ≥ 3.95 (results for a smaller set of Mw ≥ 4.95 models appear in supplementary material). The catalog included sequences such as the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, 2012 Brawley swarm, and 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa.

Key Results Highlights

Number consistency: Nearly all models (20/21 under the NBD test) matched cumulative observed counts statistically, despite fixed productivity parameters and fully automated operation. About half differed by ≤20% from observations; strong performers included STEPJAVA and certain ETAS versions.
Daily performance: Models often under -predicted rates on the day of large mainshocks (inherent limitation of clustering models) but performed better in subsequent days or quiet periods.
Spatial and magnitude: Over two- thirds consistent spatially; 95% matched magnitude distributions. Nonparametric and adaptive- smoothing components helped spatial skill.
Overall, time- varying clustering models added value over purely time- invariant ones. Newer models and those using smaller earthquakes as inputs tended to perform relatively better.

Discussion and Implications

The study supports use of ETAS- and STEP- type models in public OEF for situational awareness.

Limitations remain (e.g., forecasting the exact occurrence of large events themselves and handling certain swarms). The authors offer “model recipes”, open- source reproducibility tools (Code Ocean capsule and GitHub), forecast data via CSEP, and the USGS earthquake catalog.

Data and Code Availability: Forecasts at cseptesting.org; catalog via USGS; software packages cited in the paper (including a peer- reviewed Code Ocean version).

This paper provides one of the most extensive prospective validations of next- day seismic forecasting models to date and underpins recent coverage about nearly 600 California earthquakes validating such models. The full article (including figures, methods, and supplementary material) is freely available at the linked URL.

Journal: Nature Communications, (volume 17, Article number: 9444

Published: 06 August 2026, Open access paper

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-76243-7

Provided: University of Bristol

Authors: José A. Bayona,
Francesco Serafini,
Fábio Silva,
Pablo Iturrieta,
William H. Savran,
Marcus Herrmann,
Warner Marzocchi,
Philip J. Maechling &
Maximilian J. Werner

Illustration of the Earth with a seismic wave graph and red concentric circles representing an earthquake epicenter. — The findings could have practical implications for government agencies, civil protection authorities and scientific organisations developing – or considering developing – operational earthquake forecasting systems.
Image credit: Tumisu

The Conversation Admits Fuel Load Is Responsible For Severe Fires, Not Climate

A recent article in The Conversation, “Colonisation, not climate change, first primed these forests to burn,” claims that changing forest management practices, or lack thereof, are primarily responsible for Australian wildfires getting out of control, and climate change is only part of the equation. This is true, at least in some respects. Low-intensity controlled burns and timber harvesting can prevent more intense fires from being able to get started, and many indigenous people frequently burned landscapes to improve hunting grounds.

A kangaroo standing in a grassy field surrounded by trees and bushes.

From ClimateRealism

By Linnea Lueken

The post authors, researchers from the University of Melbourne along with an Aboriginal “Traditional Custodian,” correctly state that “weather is only part of a catastrophic fire.”

They emphasize fuel load as a major component that contributes to out of control, devastating wildfires. Their research focused on the evidence of more frequent, low-intensity fires occurring in the ancient past of Australia, which suddenly stop after British colonization of the continent. They assert that “current fuel load” in Australian forests is due to human intervention, in this case because controlled burning was discontinued after the Aboriginal people were displaced.

The authors “found that for more than 800 years, frequent, low-temperature cultural burning under GunaiKurnai care held this land as stable, open woodland,” and after colonization, “[h]ot fire becomes dominant, shrubs thicken, eucalypt cover surges to nearly four times pre-colonial levels, and open woodland becomes today’s flammable forest.”

They still make nods towards what they call “human-driven climate change,” but acknowledge that it “did not start this vulnerability – it amplifies one that colonisation began.”

There are a few angles at work here, but first I will note that they are correct that controlled burning reduces fuel load and thus makes it harder for very hot fires to get started.

A major mistake of environmentalists of the past several decades was to stop timber harvesting and deadfall clearing, and limit even low intensity natural burns. Climate Realism explains how in posts about California, Texas, and Canada, among others. Environmental goals, like saving the Spotted Owl for instance, seen in Figure 1 below, led to the building up of burnable fuel that can explode into intense wildfires when an arsonist or lightning strikes.

Line graph showing federal timber acres harvested (blue) and acres burned (red) from 1990 to 2020, highlighting a drop in acres harvested after 1990 when the Spotted Owl was listed as endangered. — Figure 1. Graph combining data for Federal lands showing acres harvested vs. acres burned, in millions of acres. Data from U.S. Forest Service and the National Interagency Fire Center. Graph by Anthony Watts.

Incorrect in the Conversation piece, however, is the assertion that climate change is making wildfires worse at all. The data simply do not show it, satellite data show that global wildfire occurrence has been on a downward trend for decades. (See Figure 2 below)

Line graph depicting the normalized global burned area from 2003 to 2015, showing fluctuations with a slight downward trend indicated by a red line. — Figure 2: Total acreage burned by fires each year between 2003 and 2015. Trend line in red indicates a steady decline. Source: “NASA detects drop in global fires,” NASA website, June 29, 2017.

Similarly, data show that Australian wildfires are also becoming smaller since peaking in the 1970s, there is no trend towards more or worse drought. If anything, as pointed out in “Climate Blame for Australian Wildfires Ages Poorly, as Rainfall Remains Abundant,” precipitation seems to be improving for the continent since the droughts of the mid-twentieth century.

The authors are probably right that when the previous owners of the land, Aborigines, were pushed out, the land management practices changed. It’s not clear from the article whether the researchers determined with certainty that the frequent low-intensity fires were directed by Aborigines, or just at times allowed to burn when they started naturally.

Their solution is that “Traditional Owners” – that is to say, Aborigines—must be “resourced” so they can restore “healthy Country and cultural burning.”

They do not explain how Aboriginal “cultural burning” is better than normal controlled burning that is done in other parts of the world, one suspects that it is not very different.

Ancient Europeans practiced forest and moorland management as well, thinning forests via logging and controlled burns on the moors were practiced by the British. It is nonsense to imply that white settlers were unaware that these methods helped to maintain healthy woodlands. It is a sort of “noble savage” fallacy being pushed here, that native people were living in harmony with nature, and not constantly battling it, compared to the foolish nature-hating Europeans. Controlled or cultural burning is not, definitionally, living in harmony with nature. It is aggressive management and shaping the land to your own wants and needs, and the Aborigines themselves know this, as they say in the article, “wild Country is sick Country.”

Today, you can’t blame wildfires in Australia on British colonists; a better argument can be made that progressive environmentalists are the ones currently responsible.

It is good that The Conversation allowed any article that explains something as straightforward as the fact that fuel load is more to blame for severe fires than climate change, but it is shameful that it appears the only way this can get published is by making the lede about scolding the British.

U.S. Oil and Gas Methane Emissions Stay Flat Despite Rising Production

U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remained essentially flat from 2019- 2024 even as production rose, according to a Johns Hopkins University study led by Ao Chen (PhD student) and Scot Miller (associate professor of environmental health and engineering), published in Communications Earth & Environment.

Infographic illustrating U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remaining steady despite increasing production, featuring a chart displaying methane emissions from 2015 to 2024 and highlighting satellite technologies used for measurement. — AI generated by Grok

The researchers used satellite observations from TROPOMI and GOSAT combined with atmospheric inverse modeling to estimate emissions across the contiguous U.S. Total oil and gas methane emissions stayed in a narrow range of about 9.3-10.4 teragrams (Tg) per year. They fell by 0.58 Tg from 2019- 2023 but rose slightly from 2023- 2024. Emissions intensity (methane released relative to oil and gas production) dropped by roughly 11%, continuing a longer- term downward trend rather than reflecting a sharp new policy- driven decline.⁠

Key points from the study and related coverage:

Good news and bad news framing: Emissions did not surge despite major growth in production (especially after the hydraulic fracturing boom), contrary to some earlier fears. However, oil and gas remain a large share of U.S. methane emissions, and the data show no clear detectable drop attributable to recent federal measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act’s methane fees and Waste Emissions Charge or EPA Clean Air Act rules. Researchers note the counterfactual is unknown; emissions might have been higher without the policies.⁠
Drivers of stable absolute emissions and falling intensity: Improved infrastructure (more pipelines to capture and sell gas instead of flaring and venting it, especially in places like the Permian Basin), better industry practices and leak detection and repair, earlier regulations (e.g., New Source Performance Standards for newer facilities), and the rising economic value of natural gas as a commodity. Most of the intensity decline occurred around 2020- 2022.⁠
Regional variation: Texas saw a roughly 14% decline in oil and gas methane emissions. California and Colorado appear to be falling short of their own reduction goals. States with statutory targets sometimes have better inventory alignment with satellite data, but this did not clearly translate into faster emission reductions than states without such targets.⁠
Context on policy and inventories: Implementation of the IRA fee and related rules faced delays and was limited during the study window. Satellite- based estimates remain higher than EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory figures (consistent with prior top-down studies), though they capture a similar intensity trend.⁠

Methane is a potent short- lived greenhouse gas (roughly 30 times more powerful than CO₂ over short timescales), so absolute reductions matter for near- term climate impact.

The authors emphasize that while falling intensity is positive, sustained cuts in total emissions are still needed, and long- term regulatory consistency could influence future industry incentives.

The original Johns Hopkins Hub article (by Hannah Robbins, published October 13, 2026) is available at hub.jhu.edu. The peer- reviewed paper is in Communications Earth & Environment (DOI related to 10.1038/s43247-026-04039-0).

Offshore oil rig silhouetted against a sunset sky over the ocean.

TROPOMI and GOSAT provide key satellite observations of atmospheric methane (CH₄) used in the Johns Hopkins study and many other emissions analyses.

In that research, scientists combined data from these instruments with atmospheric modeling. Because methane disperses with wind, they applied inverse modeling (an algorithm that works backward from observed atmospheric concentrations) to estimate where and how much methane was emitted from oil and gas sources on the ground across the contiguous U.S. for 2019- 2024.

TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument)

Platform: Onboard the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel- 5 Precursor satellite, launched in October 2017.
Capabilities: A push- broom imaging spectrometer that measures reflected sunlight across ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands. Methane is retrieved primarily from the SWIR band around 2.3 μm.
Coverage and resolution: Daily near- global coverage with a wide ~2,600 km swath. Nadir pixel size is about 7 × 7 km (improved to ~5.5 × 7 km after August 2019).
Strengths: High spatial resolution and dense sampling enable mapping of both regional patterns and some larger point sources. It produces column- averaged dry- air mole fractions of methane (XCH₄).
Limitations: Strict quality filtering yields a relatively low retrieval success rate (~3% in some analyses) due to clouds, aerosols, and surface conditions. It can show larger regional biases (especially over low- albedo surfaces) compared with more mature instruments. Reported precision is around 0.6%.

GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite)

Platform: Japan’s GOSAT series (first satellite, nicknamed “IBUKI”, launched in 2009; successor GOSAT- 2 launched in 2018). Operated by JAXA with involvement from Japan’s Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies.
Capabilities: Dedicated greenhouse- gas mission using Fourier- transform spectrometers (TANSO-FTS / TANSO- FTS-2) to measure CO₂ and CH₄ columns via solar backscatter in the SWIR.
Coverage and resolution: Sparser sampling, circular pixels of ~10.5 km diameter, typically spaced hundreds of kilometers apart, with a multi- day revisit cycle (e.g., ~3 days in standard mode for the original GOSAT). Higher retrieval success rate (~24%, limited mainly by clouds) than TROPOMI.
Strengths: More mature retrievals with generally lower biases. Often used as a reference or for bias correction of denser datasets like TROPOMI. Precision is typically reported around 0.7%. It has provided a long- term record of global methane trends since 2009.
Limitations: Much lower data density (roughly 100- 250 times fewer observations than TROPOMI in comparable periods), which limits fine- scale mapping.

How they are used together

TROPOMI supplies dense, high- resolution coverage, while GOSAT offers higher- accuracy, lower- bias measurements. Many studies (including the Johns Hopkins work) blend or jointly assimilate the two datasets. Machine- learning approaches are sometimes applied to correct TROPOMI biases relative to GOSAT (e.g., adjusting for aerosols, surface albedo, or viewing geometry). Validation against ground-based networks such as TCCON typically shows small global mean biases for both (often a few ppb), though regional differences can exceed 10- 20 ppb in challenging conditions.

These satellite XCH₄ observations enable independent, top- down estimates of emissions that complement bottom- up inventories (such as the EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory). In the Johns Hopkins analysis, the combined data supported the conclusion that U.S. oil and gas methane emissions stayed relatively flat (~9.3- 10.4 Tg/year) while intensity declined ~11% amid rising production.

A futuristic drilling site with a glowing pipeline cutting through rocky layers, emitting sparks and water, under a dramatic sky.

U.S. oil and gas methane emission intensity declined 2019–2024 with little indication of federal policy impact

U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remained essentially flat from 2019 to 2024 even as production increased, according to a Johns Hopkins University study.

The research, led by PhD student Ao Chen and senior researcher Scot Miller (associate professor of environmental health and engineering), was published in Communications Earth & Environment. It is covered in a Johns Hopkins Hub article by Hannah Robbins (published October 13, 2026).

Key findings

Researchers combined satellite data from TROPOMI and GOSAT with atmospheric inverse modeling to estimate emissions across the contiguous United States.

Total methane emissions from oil and gas activities stayed between roughly 9.3 and 10.4 teragrams (Tg) per year.
Emissions declined by 0.58 Tg from 2019- 2023, then rose slightly from 2023- 2024.
Emissions intensity (methane released relative to oil and gas production) fell by about 11%. This continues a longer-term downward trend rather than reflecting a sharp drop driven by recent policy.⁠

Miller described it as a “good news/bad news situation”: emissions did not surge as some had feared amid major production growth (especially after the hydraulic fracturing boom), but oil and gas still account for a large share of U.S. methane emissions, and the study found no clear detectable reduction attributable to recent federal measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act’s methane- related provisions or related EPA rules. The authors note it is impossible to test the counterfactual; emissions might have been higher without those policies.

Why emissions stayed flat while production rose

Contributing factors include expanded pipeline infrastructure (allowing more gas to be captured and sold instead of flared or vented, particularly in areas like the Permian Basin), improved industry practices and leak detection, earlier regulations on newer facilities, and the rising economic value of natural gas as a commodity. Better protocols and reduced flaring have helped lower intensity even as overall output grew.

Regional notes

Texas (home to the largest oil- producing basin) saw an approximately 14% decline in oil and gas methane emissions. California and Colorado appear to be falling short of their own reduction goals.⁠

Methane is a potent, shorter- lived greenhouse gas (roughly 30 times more powerful than CO₂ over short timescales). The authors stress that while falling intensity is positive, meaningful climate impact requires reductions in absolute emissions, and longer-term regulatory consistency may be needed to further incentivize cuts.

The original Hub article is available at hub.jhu.edu.

Journal: Communications Earth & Environment 7, Article number: 813 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-04039-0 peer- reviewed

Provided: Johns Hopkins University

Authors: Ao Chen,
William S. Daniels,
Ziting Huang,
Arvind P. Ravikumar,
Sarah M. Jordaan,
Zhen Zhang,
Leyang Feng,
Hanyu Liu,
Lee T. Murray,
Xueying Yu,
Dylan C. Gaeta,
Kristan L. Morgan,
Jialuo Yuan &
Scot M. Miller

Abstract

The U.S. federal government undertook a historic legislative effort to regulate methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors beginning in 2021 through the Inflation Reduction Act and Waste Emissions Charge. Despite a substantial rollback of these regulations in subsequent years, U.S. oil and gas methane emissions during this policy window are largely uncharacterized. Here we estimate changes in U.S. methane emissions both before and directly after this policy window (years 2019 to 2024) using an inverse model constrained by satellite observations. Overall, we find that oil and gas methane emissions decreased by 0.58 [0.30, 0.96] Tg from 2019 to 2023, but increased by 0.21 [-0.06, 0.53] Tg in the years following the new federal policy (2023–2024). We find that methane emissions intensity declined by 11.1% [9.3%, 13.6%] from 2019 to 2024, likely as a result of gradual technological and operational developments, and existing federal regulations.

EPA wants to scrap Biden-era regs that pose ‘monumental threat’ to natural gas

The Trump administration is preparing to scrap another Biden-era climate regulation, taking aim at a methane leak program that federal officials argue has burdened American oil and gas producers with billions in costs.

Former President Joe Biden’s EPA finalized sweeping methane regulations in 2023, later establishing the super-emitter program as part of its 2024 oil and natural gas rules. The administration projected that the broader regulations would prevent approximately 58 million tons of methane emissions between 2024 and 2038.

A stylized upward arrow with a U.S. flag design placed on a gas burner with blue flames, symbolizing growth or progress in an American context. — Gas price. Rise in gas prices in USA. A burner with a flame and an arrow up, painted in the colors of the USA flag. The concept of rising gas or energy prices.

From CFACT

BY PARIS APODAKA:

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announced Wednesday that the agency will soon propose eliminating the Biden administration’s “super-emitter” program, which requires oil and gas operators to investigate reports of major methane leaks detected by third parties. The announcement came during an oil and gas industry meeting in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

“In an upcoming proposal, which is currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget, U.S. EPA will take an important step in easing regulatory burdens and unleashing the Nation’s domestic energy supply by proposing the next step in the agency’s wide-scale reconsideration of the Biden-Harris Administration’s Clean Air Act rules for the oil and natural gas industry,” an EPA spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

“Behind every barrel of oil and every cubic foot of natural gas produced in the U.S. are millions of workers, businesses, and the heartbeat of this nation’s economy; the Biden-era regulations posed a monumental threat,” the spokesperson continued. “As a result, Americans in every state suffered from higher energy prices. The U.S. produces energy in a better and more environmentally friendly way than anywhere else in the world.”

The EPA estimates its broader proposed changes to the Biden-era oil and gas regulations would save $45 billion, according to the Wednesday press release. The agency also argues that the super-emitter program is ineffective and unnecessary to satisfy Clean Air Act requirements.

“The Trump EPA knows our policies must match our nation’s potential and is working to unleash the full ability of American energy and lower costs for Americans by returning commonsense to regulations. The proposal will be released once it has been signed by the Administrator.”

Methane, however, has become a major target of climate activists because of its ability to trap heat in the atmosphere. NASA identifies methane as the second-largest contributor to global warming behind carbon dioxide, estimating that rising methane concentrations have accounted for 20% to 30% of Earth’s warming since the Industrial Revolution.

The gas is also considerably more potent than carbon dioxide over shorter periods. One ton of methane can trap 84 to 87 times as much heat as a ton of carbon dioxide over 20 years, according to NASA. Methane generally remains in the atmosphere for only about a decade, compared with the centuries that carbon dioxide can persist.

Today, EPA Admin. Zeldin announced a rollback of federal rules that ensure oil and gas operators don't pollute our air. This decision clearly shows that Trump is putting polluters first over the wellbeing of the American people. #Methane pic.twitter.com/ZHumKW2iXj
— Conservation Voters New Mexico (@ProtectNM) October 7, 2026

Methane emissions are not exclusive to fossil fuel production. Agriculture, landfills and natural wetlands also release the gas, with NASA estimating that roughly 60% of global methane emissions come from human activities.

The super-emitter program allows EPA-certified groups, including nonprofit Carbon Mapper, to use satellites, aircraft and other technologies to detect methane leaks of at least 100 kilograms per hour, according to the agency.

Operators receiving qualifying notifications must investigate the suspected leaks, report their findings and make repairs when required under applicable EPA standards.

The Trump administration previously delayed future implementation of the program until January 2027. Its latest announcement goes further, proposing to eliminate the program altogether.

The proposed rollback comes as the administration continues dismantling Biden-era environmental regulations. The EPA previously repealed greenhouse gas standards for coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, a move the agency estimated would eliminate more than $300 billion in regulatory costs, as the Daily Caller News Foundation previously reported.

“Americans must be able to afford to heat their homes in the winter and fill up their car and drive to work. They can’t do that when the people producing the energy are weighed down by unnecessary burdens,” Zeldin said in the EPA’s press release. “The Trump EPA is committed to fixing this so the U.S. can reach its full energy potential.”

This article originally appeared at The Daily Caller

Earth’s Mantle Was “Breathing” Oxygen Billion Years Before the Atmosphere

Scientists found evidence that Earth’s mantle was interacting with (and being oxidized by) surface oxygen as early as ~3.4 billion years ago, roughly a billion years before the Great Oxidation Event permanently raised atmospheric oxygen levels around 2.3- 2.2 billion years ago.

Sanukitoid petrogenesis refers to the origin and formation processes of a distinctive suite of intermediate to felsic igneous rocks (mainly diorites, monzodiorites, granodiorites, and related rocks) that are characteristic of the late Archean to early Paleoproterozoic (~3.0- 2.5 Ga, with some earlier examples from ~3.4- 2.9 Ga).

Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and intermittent “whiffs” of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have driven an early rise in sub-arc mantle fugacity before the Great Oxidation Event (GOE, ~2.3-2.2 Ga), reaching conditions comparable to the modern Earth by ~2.1 Ga.

A surreal landscape featuring a glowing pool of lava surrounded by dark volcanic rock, with shimmering blue streams of energy and crystalline formations emerging from the ground. — AI generated by Grok

This comes from a University of Portsmouth- led international study published in Nature Geoscience (DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02119-6; lead author Dr. Hugo Moreira). It builds on earlier 2023 work by the same group linking mantle chemistry changes to the Great Oxidation Event itself.

Key methods and findings

Researchers analyzed tiny “time capsules”: apatite mineral inclusions sealed inside durable zircon crystals from sanukitoid rocks (a distinctive type of magma linked to early subduction- like processes). Samples spanned more than 3 billion years and came from sites including the Pilbara Craton (Australia; ~3.42 and 2.9 Ga), Karelian and Kaapvaal Cratons (Finland and South Africa; ~2.7 Ga), São Francisco Craton (Brazil; ~2.13 Ga), and Scotland (~425 Ma).⁠

Zircons were dated precisely (some to exactly 3.4 billion years old) using laser techniques at Portsmouth.
Sulfur oxidation states (S⁶⁺, S⁴⁺, S²⁻) in the protected apatite inclusions were measured via sulfur K-edge micro- X- ray absorption near- edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF) in France. These states act as a sensitive proxy for oxygen fugacity (how oxidizing the magma and mantle environment was).⁠

Results show a progressive increase in oxygen fugacity in the sub-arc mantle starting between ~3.4 and 3 billion years ago. The signature remained present across the studied interval and approached modern levels by ~2.1 billion years ago. This indicates that subduction was already recycling oxidized surface material (from early weathering and intermittent “whiffs” of oxygen) deep into the mantle long before permanent atmospheric oxygenation.⁠

The team ruled out alternative explanations (temperature and pressure variations, fractional crystallization, degassing) and noted that even small amounts of oxidized sulfur would have had a strong effect on the more reduced early mantle.

They propose feedback: early oxidative recycling raised sub-arc mantle oxidation → more oxidizing volcanic gases → more felsic crust and intensified surface weathering → further contribution to long- term atmospheric oxygen buildup.

This provides the most continuous timeline yet of how surface oxygen and deep- Earth processes co-evolved. It supports the idea that plate tectonics (or early analogs) connected Earth’s exterior and interior reservoirs far earlier than often assumed, helping create conditions for a habitable planet.

The work is curiosity- driven basic research into Earth’s origins and the emergence of life, rather than an immediate practical application.⁠

In short, the mantle was effectively “breathing” (exchanging and responding to) oxygen via recycling processes a billion years before free oxygen dominated the atmosphere.

Earth’s First ‘Breath’

Sanukitoid petrogenesis refers to the origin and formation processes of a distinctive suite of intermediate to felsic igneous rocks (mainly diorites, monzodiorites, granodiorites, and related rocks) that are characteristic of the late Archean to early Paleoproterozoic (~3.0- 2.5 Ga, with some earlier examples from ~3.4- 2.9 Ga).

They mark a transitional phase in Earth’s crustal evolution, bridging the dominant Archean tonalite- trondhjemite- granodiorite (TTG) magmatism and more modern- style calc- alkaline arc magmatism.

Geochemical Characteristics

Sanukitoids are defined by a dual “mantle and crust” signature:

Mantle- compatible elements: High MgO (typically 1.5–9 wt%), Mg# (molecular Mg/ (Mg and Fe) ≈ 45–65 or higher in primitive members), Ni (>100 ppm in many definitions), Cr (>100- 200 ppm).
Incompatible elements: Strong enrichment in large- ion lithophile elements (LILE), especially K₂O (1.5–5 wt%), Ba, and Sr (Ba and Sr often >1,000–1,400 ppm); high light rare- earth elements (LREE); relatively high K₂O/Na₂O compared with TTGs; fractionated REE patterns with low HREE and no or minor Eu anomalies.⁠

Classic strict definition (Stern et al., 1989) focused on SiO₂ 55–- 60 wt% with the above traits, but the broader “sanukitoid suite and series” includes more evolved members produced by fractional crystallization. High- Ti and low- Ti varieties are sometimes distinguished.

They resemble high- Mg andesites (sanukites) from the Setouchi volcanic belt in Japan, hence the name.

Petrogenetic Models

The consensus is that sanukitoids form by interaction between mantle peridotite and a recycled crustal component (typically TTG- like or slab- derived felsic melts, possibly with fluids and/or sediments).

Two main (not mutually exclusive) pathways are debated:

Two- stage (metasomatism and later melting) process (most widely invoked)
- Stage 1: Subduction- related fluids and or silicate melts (from partial melting of subducted oceanic crust and metabasite, often eclogite- facies, ± sediments) metasomatize the mantle wedge or subcontinental lithospheric mantle. This creates enriched domains (e.g., amphibole- or phlogopite- bearing veins).
- Stage 2: Later thermal perturbation (slab break-off, mantle plume, or continued subduction heating) causes partial melting of this metasomatized peridotite, generating the sanukitoid parental magma.⁠
One- stage (assimilation and reaction) process
- TTG- like or hydrous eclogite melts directly react with and assimilate mantle peridotite during ascent, producing hybrid melts with the characteristic dual geochemistry.⁠

Recent Ti- isotope studies (δ⁴⁹Ti) of primitive sanukitoids show elevated values requiring a hydrous metabasite (eclogite) melt component formed in equilibrium with residual rutile. This favors fluid- fluxed melting of eclogite in a subduction- like setting and indicates parental magmas were water- rich and relatively oxidized, comparable to modern arc magmas.⁠

Melting conditions are typically high- pressure (>1- 2.5 GPa, corresponding to ~35- 80 and km depth), hydrous, and oxidized. Differentiation often involves amphibole ± plagioclase ± orthopyroxene fractionation, sometimes at lower pressures where a distinct cotectic may control the series.

Geodynamic Significance

Sanukitoids appear mainly near the Archean- Proterozoic transition and are linked to the progressive cooling of Earth and the evolution of subduction:

Early Archean: High heat production favored extensive slab melting → pure TTG magmas with limited mantle interaction.
Late Archean: Reduced slab melting → more interaction with the mantle wedge → sanukitoids (hybrids).
Post ~2.5 Ga: Predominantly fluid- fluxed melting of the mantle wedge (modern- style arcs), with slab melts rarer.⁠

They are therefore key evidence for the onset or maturation of plate- tectonic (or proto- subduction) processes, deep crust- mantle recycling, and the changing nature of continental crust growth.

In the context of the recent Nature Geoscience study on mantle oxidation, sanukitoids serve as excellent monitors of sub- arc mantle redox state because their sources record metasomatism by recycled surface materials.

Modern Analogues and Distribution

Phanerozoic high- Mg diorites, vaugnerites, appinites, and some post-collisional I- type granitoids share similarities and may represent analogues. Archean examples occur worldwide (e.g., Superior Province, Pilbara, Kaapvaal, Karelian, North China, Amazonian/Carajás, Yilgarn, and São Francisco cratons).

In summary, sanukitoid petrogenesis records hybridization between depleted mantle and recycled crustal melts and fluids in a subduction- related setting under hotter Archean conditions.

This dual signature makes them invaluable for tracking early Earth geodynamics, mantle metasomatism, and the co- evolution of crust and mantle.

Close-up of an orange mineral rock on a textured surface with small pebbles and dust. — Ancient Zircons Reveal Oxygen Was Quietly Oxidizing Earth’s Mantle

Progressive oxidative weathering raised sub-arc mantle fugacity on the Archaean Earth

Abstract (summary)

In the modern Earth, sub- arc mantle oxygen fugacity is linked to addition of sulfur species by slab fluids. It has been unclear to what extent volatile recycling controlled redox changes in the early Earth.

Using sulfur K -edge micro- X- ray absorption near- edge structure (μ-XANES) spectroscopy, the authors measured the relative abundances of S⁶⁺, S⁴⁺, and S²⁻ in apatite inclusions hosted in geochemically characterized and precisely dated zircons from sub- arc sanukitoid magmas spanning 3.4 billion years of Earth history.

Key results:

The sub- arc mantle shows a marked increase in oxygen fugacity (fO₂) between 3.4 and 3.0 Ga.
It is substantially more oxidized than the unaltered ambient upper mantle.
This cannot be explained by fractional crystallization, degassing, or intrinsic mantle processes.

The authors propose that progressive oxidative weathering increased the proportion of oxidized sulfur recycled into mantle- wedge sources.

This established a feedback between subduction of surface materials and progressively more oxidized arc magmatism.

Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and intermittent “whiffs” of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have driven an early rise in sub-arc mantle fugacity before the Great Oxidation Event (GOE, ~2.3-2.2 Ga), reaching conditions comparable to the modern Earth by ~2.1 Ga.

Methods highlights

Samples: Geochemically coherent sanukitoids (metasomatized- mantle- derived magmas) from the Pilbara Craton (Australia; 3.42 and 2.9 Ga), Karelian Craton (Finland; 2.7 Ga), Kaapvaal Craton (South Africa; 2.7 Ga), São Francisco Craton (Brazil; 2.13 Ga), and Northern Highland Terrane (Scotland; 0.425 Ga).
Protected apatite inclusions inside zircon crystals acted as unaltered “time capsules”.
337 analyses on 39 apatite inclusions + 213 analyses on 65 matrix apatites, performed at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF, ID21 beamline).
S⁶⁺/S_total ratios converted to ΔFMQ (deviation from the fayalite- magnetite- quartz buffer) using an experimental oxybarometer.
Supporting U- Pb dating, trace- element, and oxygen- isotope data on the host zircons.

Broader implication

This provides the first continuous record showing that surface oxidative weathering products were already being recycled into the deep Earth via early subduction- like processes more than a billion years before permanent atmospheric oxygenation. The mantle was not a passive spectator; it participated in a feedback loop that helped shape the conditions leading to a habitable, oxygenated Earth.

Journal: Nature Geoscience

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02119-6

Provided: University of Portsmouth

Published: 14 October 2026 (Open Access)

Authors: Hugo Moreira,
Emilie Bruand,
Craig Storey,
James Darling,
Mike Fowler,
Marine Cotte,
Fleurice Parat,
Lorraine Tual &
Bruno Dhuime

Abstract

In the modern Earth, sub-arc mantle oxygen fugacity is intrinsically associated with addition of sulfur species by slab fluids. However, it is unclear to what extent recycling of volatiles controlled redox changes of the sub-arc mantle in the early Earth. Here we use sulfur K-edge micro-X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy to measure the relative abundances of S⁶⁺, S⁴⁺ and S²⁻ in apatite inclusions hosted by geochemically characterized and dated zircons from sub-arc sanukitoid magmas that span 3.4 billion years of Earth’s geological history. The sub-arc mantle shows marked increase in oxygen fugacity between 3.4 and 3.0 billion years ago (Ga). It is substantially more oxidized than unaltered ambient upper mantle, a characteristic that cannot be explained by fractionation, degassing or intrinsic mantle processes. We propose that progressive oxidative weathering enhanced the proportion of oxidized sulfur recycled to mantle wedge sources, establishing feedback between subduction of surface materials and incrementally oxidized arc magmatism. Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and ‘whiffs’ of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have regulated an early increase in fugacity of the sub-arc mantle before the Great Oxidation Event, matching similar conditions to the modern Earth by 2.1 Ga.

Is Climate Science Politicized? An Exchange

Kim Rogalin posted about the controversy over the (now removed) 4th edition of the Federal Judicial Center’s Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence from the National Academy of Sciences.

Bradley says his points about RCP 8.5 were never directly answered, and that Climategate should not be forgotten, quoting Andrew Dessler from 2009 calling the emails “embarrassing and a public-relations disaster for science.”

From Master Resource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

Kim Rogalin posted on social media (Facebook) about the controversy concerning the (now removed) Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (fourth edition) of the National Academy of Sciences Federal Judicial Center (FJC). Her post (August 28, 2026) summarized a Federalist article, “After Climate Activism Scandal, 25 State AGs Push Feds to Suspend Grants to National Science Org,” where author Shown Fleetwood wrote:

The problem with that chapter centered on the fact it was not neutral or unbiased, as the science manual is supposed to be, but was written by activist lawyers and academics actively involved in climate lawsuits filed across the nation, plus plaintiffs, advisors, and climate experts participating in those trials. Being written by public advocates of climate lawsuits, while citing materials and using whole sections written by attorneys and academics testifying for the plaintiffs in those lawsuits, doesn’t just tiptoe along the line of the appearance of impropriety. It is flat-out improper and should have been sufficient by itself to disqualify the climate science document from inclusion in the FJC science manual….

The Academy did the right thing by removing the climate chapter from its website and formally investigating.

Jim Cooper Exchange

Enter Jim Cooper, Professor Emeritus at the University of Minnesota, who commented.

What BS. Members of National Academy of Sciences are elected based of quality of their scientific research not their political positions. Members are elected … in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research. Membership is a widely accepted mark of excellence in science and is considered one of the highest honors that a scientist can receive. Current NAS membership totals approximately 2,700 members and 500 international members, of which approximately 200 have received Nobel prizes.” [NAS here]

I then engaged him as follows:

Bradley: Shame that climate science ruined the reputation of science in general. From Climategate to RCP 8.5.

Jim Cooper: No the shame is folks unwillingness to read the scientific literature . As retired scientist and Scientific Journal Editor, I know that the scientific evidence for Climate Change is robust and the quality of the research on par with other scientific fields. The exchange of personal opinions in a few emails did not affect the quality of the published research. I challenge you to prove otherwise using links to credible documentation.

Bradley: Are/were you part of the problem? Climategate was about real-time cheating for ‘the cause’ (and getting called out for it) and an admitted promise to attempt to skew peer review. Read the quotations! Secondly, what about all the journal articles based on RCP 8.5. Retraction? Climate models are not science….

Bradley: What about the busted paradigm of RCP 8.5-based peer-reviewed articles? Why did the profession turn the speculative (and now rejected) model scenario into a base case? Politicization or mass intellectual error?

Cooper: Again and again I will remind you and others that posts without links to credible domination for claims are noise. Links please, otherwise I will not respond.

Bradley: It is international news in the climate community that RCP 8.5 was formally rejected after a decade of primary use. It was the basis for literally thousands of published climate articles. Roger Pielke Jr. has covered this in detail. Are you following the debate? So again my question: “What about the busted paradigm of RCP 8.5-based peer-reviewed articles?” rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead

Conclusion

My points were never directly answered by the self-anointed authority. If I had made the same case in a journal article, providing a link, what would Cooper have said? My guess is that he would state that it was not a quality journal. Such is the narrative that the experts do not want to disturb.

Climategate lives–and should never be forgotten. As a leading climate alarmist-qua-scientist, Andrew Dessler, stated back in 2009: “There is no doubt that these emails are embarrassing and a public-relations disaster for science.”

Jim Cooper Background

In a previous Facebook post concerning the Climate Change Reality Forum, Cooper wrote:

The goal of this site is: “The Climate change reality forum is an open Facebook group established to reach people with information that differs from the IPCC’s official position on this subject.” IPCC presents scientific research findings and the only valid debate must be with scientific research findings accompanied by full citation of sources not opinions. But I find that the latter predominant thus are not honest discussions of reality.

This led to more than one hundred comments, with Cooper responding to criticism by stating:

It’s your responsibility to prove your claims using data and/or previous published research findings. That’s part of critical thinking, and I repeat in science all statements and/or claims must be backed by citation of credible documentation. Please provide a link to paper where the figure appears….

How true–except when it comes to climate science and other politicized areas of scientific research.

Surviving the Ice Age: How Climate Shaped Japan’s First Humans

The first human inhabitants of the Japanese archipelago have been traced to the Paleolithic, around 38- 39,000 years ago. The Jōmon period followed, lasting roughly from c. 14,000- 13,000 BC to about 1000- 300 BC.

Over 10,000- 14,500 Paleolithic sites are now known across the archipelago, one of the densest concentrations in the world, aided by widespread volcanic tephra layers (especially the Aira- Tanzawa tephra) that provide excellent chronological markers.

The Paleolithic ends with the appearance of pottery (among the world’s oldest) around 16,000- 14,000 years ago. This marks the beginning of the Jōmon culture, characterized by greater sedentism, more complex hunter- gatherer adaptations, and the famous cord- marked ceramics.

Prehistoric humans in fur clothing stand on a snowy landscape, observing an elephant and a deer, with mountains in the background. — AI generated by Grok

Paleolithic period

Hunter- gatherers reached the islands during the Late Pleistocene. Reliable archaeological evidence places the earliest human presence at approximately 38- 40,000 years ago (some sites, such as Lake Nojiri, yield dates near 37,900 years BP).

Japan’s acidic soils preserve few bones, so the record rests mainly on stone tools, including distinctive edge- ground axes more than 30,000 years old. People almost certainly arrived by watercraft; land bridges existed at times of lower sea level, but the islands were not continuously connected.

Sites on Okinawa (Yamashita Cave, ~32,000 years ago) and Ishigaki further document early settlement. These groups hunted now- extinct megafauna such as the elephant Palaeoloxodon naumanni and the giant deer Sinomegaceros yabei.

Jōmon period

Named for its characteristic cord-marked (jōmon) pottery, among the world’s oldest ceramics, appearing by ~16,500- 14,000 years ago, the period is defined by a predominantly hunter- gatherer culture that achieved notable sedentism and complexity.

People lived in pit dwellings, exploited rich marine and forest resources, and produced elaborate pottery, figurines (dogū), and lacquerware. Population size remained relatively small for millennia after isolation from the continent (driven by post-glacial sea-level rise). Genetic studies indicate the Jōmon lineage diverged from continental East Asian populations roughly 20,000- 15,000 years ago and maintained a distinct profile until later admixture.

The Jōmon era ended with the arrival of continental influences that inaugurated the Yayoi period (wet- rice agriculture, metallurgy, and new population movements), followed by the Kofun, Nara, and Heian periods that saw the formation of a centralized state and the adoption of writing and Buddhism.⁠

This summary draws primarily from the established archaeological and genetic consensus reflected in major reference works and recent ancient- DNA research.

Map of Japan highlighting the Tohoku region, with labels for Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu, and indicating geographical proximity to China and Korea. — Japan at the Last Glacial Maximum in the Late Pleistocene about 20,000 years ago
Japan glaciation – Japanese Paleolithic – Wikipedia

Japanese Paleolithic period (旧石器時代, kyūsekki jidai)

The Japanese Paleolithic is the earliest phase of human occupation of the Japanese archipelago, defined as the pre- pottery period. It is generally dated from roughly 40,000- 36,000 BC (or about 38,000- 40,000 years ago) to around 14,000- 10,000 BC, when pottery appears and the Jōmon period begins.⁠

Recent consensus places reliable evidence for modern humans (Homo sapiens) and the Early Upper Paleolithic from approximately 38,000- 36,000 years ago onward. Earlier claims of Lower or Middle Paleolithic occupation (tens or hundreds of thousands of years ago) were largely discredited after a major archaeological scandal.

Chronology and Environment

During cold phases of the Late Pleistocene (especially the Last Glacial Maximum), lower sea levels transformed the geography:

Paleo- Honshu: Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu formed a single large island.
Paleo- Hokkaido Peninsula: linked to the Asian continent via Sakhalin.
Expanded Ryukyu Islands.

People were mobile hunter- gatherers who hunted megafauna such as the straight- usked elephant Palaeoloxodon naumanni and the giant deer Sinomegaceros yabei. One key site, Lake Nojiri (Nagano Prefecture), dates to about 37,900 years BP and preserves evidence of butchery of these animals.

Japan’s volcanic soils are highly acidic, so human skeletal remains are extremely rare. Most evidence consists of stone tools. Limited fossils come from Okinawa (e.g., Yamashita Cave ~32,000 years ago; Shiraho Saonetabaru Cave) and a few main- island sites such as Hamakita (Negata) in Shizuoka.

Stone Tool Technology

The Japanese Paleolithic is notable for several distinctive features:

Early appearance of edge- ground and polished stone tools (axes) around 30,000 BC, technology elsewhere associated with the much later Neolithic.
Flake industries with trapezoids and denticulate in the earliest Upper Paleolithic (~39- 37 ka cal BP) on Paleo- Honshu.
Later development of blade technology, knife- shaped tools, and eventually micro blades.
Evidence of trap- pit hunting and possible early use of watercraft.

These assemblages show both local innovation and connections to contemporary industries in China and the Korean Peninsula.⁠

History of Research and the Fujimura Hoax

Systematic Paleolithic archaeology in Japan began relatively late. The first recognized site was Iwajuku (Gunma Prefecture), discovered by Tadahiro Aizawa in 1946 and excavated in 1949. Before then, excavators typically stopped at Jōmon layers, assuming no earlier occupation.

From the 1970s onward, amateur archaeologist Shinichi Fujimura reported a series of sensational early finds, pushing dates back as far as 600,000 years and establishing an apparent Early and Middle Paleolithic sequence. In November 2000 the newspaper Mainichi Shimbun published photographs of Fujimura burying artifacts at the Kamitakamori site. He later admitted to planting genuine (mostly later) tools at dozens of sites (at least 42 confirmed by the Japanese Archaeological Association).

The scandal invalidated the majority of claimed pre- 40,000- year assemblages and forced a major reassessment. Today only a handful of sites are considered possible candidates for activity before ~40,000 years ago, and the widely accepted start of continuous human presence is placed around 38,000- 35,000 years ago.

Transition to the Jōmon Period

In summary, the Japanese Paleolithic represents the first successful colonization of the archipelago by modern humans, featuring distinctive early ground-stone technology and a rich, well- dated archaeological record that has been refined through rigorous post- 2000 re- evaluation.

A prehistoric scene depicting three individuals engaging in daily activities near a campfire, with mountains and trees in the background. One person is preparing food, while another sharpens a tool and the third sits nearby. Remnants of an animal carcass are visible. — At a campsite in the Paleolithic Period in Japan. Picture painted by Shuichi Hosono, based on the excavation findings at the Tomizawa archaeological site in Miyagi Prefecture. (Courtesy of the Sendai City Board of Education.)
Paleolithic Period in Japan – Unfamiliar Japan Tours

Jōmon period (縄文時代, Jōmon jidai)

The Jōmon period is a major prehistoric era in Japan, lasting approximately from c. 14,000 BC to 300 BC (some chronologies place the start as early as ~16,500- 14,500 years ago with the earliest pottery, and the end as late as ~300–- 100 BC). It follows the Paleolithic and precedes the Yayoi period.

The name comes from the distinctive “cord- marked” (jōmon) decoration on pottery, a term coined by American zoologist Edward S. Morse after his 1877 excavation of the Ōmori shell mounds near Tokyo.⁠

The Jōmon people were primarily sedentary or semi- sedentary hunter -gatherer- fishers who also practiced limited plant cultivation. They achieved a high degree of cultural complexity without full- scale agriculture or metallurgy until the very end of the period. Their society is often described as a sophisticated Mesolithic or early Neolithic culture adapted to Japan’s rich post- glacial environment.

Chronology

The period is conventionally divided into six phases based mainly on pottery typology (with supporting radiocarbon dates).

Approximate ranges (BCE) are:

Phase	Approximate dates	Key characteristics
Incipient	13,750- 8,500	Earliest pottery (among the world’s oldest); transition from Paleolithic; simple dwellings
Initial	8,500- 5,000	Bullet- shaped pots; first clear settlements and graves
Early	5,000- 3,520	Flat- bottomed pottery; growing sedentism; shell mounds
Middle	3,520- 2,470	Cultural peak; large settlements; elaborate “flame-style” pottery; population growth
Late	2,470- 1,250	Regional variation; continued complexity
Final	1,250- 300	Transition toward Yayoi influences; thinner pottery

Dates vary slightly by region and source; the Middle phase is widely regarded as the height of Jōmon cultural florescence.

Lifestyle, Settlements, and Economy

People lived in pit dwellings (shallow excavated floors with thatched roofs supported by posts), often arranged around open central spaces. Settlements ranged from small clusters to large villages. One of the most famous is Sannai- Maruyama (Aomori Prefecture, northern Honshu), a major Middle Jōmon hub settlement with large buildings, storage pits, and evidence of long- term occupation.

Subsistence relied on:

Hunting (deer, wild boar; use of bows, arrows, and dogs)
Fishing and shellfish gathering (extensive shell mounds)
Gathering of nuts (chestnuts, walnuts, acorns), roots, and other plants
Limited cultivation of useful plants (e.g., chestnuts, lacquer trees, some beans)

Tools and crafts included polished stone implements, bone and antler tools, lacquerware (among the oldest in the world), baskets, and jewelry. Ritual objects such as clay figurines (dogū) are characteristic, especially in later phases.

Pottery

Jōmon pottery is hand- built (coil method), low-fired earthenware and ranks among the earliest ceramics known globally (earliest examples ~14,500- 13,000 BC from sites such as Odai Yamamoto I in Aomori).

Styles evolved from simple pointed- or rounded-bottom vessels to elaborate, highly decorated forms, most famously the ornate “flame- style” (kaen- dokī) vessels of the Middle Jōmon. Decoration used cord impressions, shells, sticks, and applied clay.

Archaeology and Key Sites

Systematic study began in the late 19th century. Japan has thousands of Jōmon sites. Notable examples include:

Sannai-Maruyama (Aomori): large Middle Jōmon settlement
Ōyu Stone Circles and other ritual sites in the northeast
Shell mounds such as Ōmori and Natsushima
Sites in the UNESCO World Heritage “Jomon Prehistoric Sites in Northern Japan” serial property

Northern Japan (Tōhoku and Hokkaido) preserves particularly rich remains due to environmental conditions and later cultural continuity with the Ainu.

Genetics and Origins

Ancient DNA studies show the Jōmon lineage diverged from continental East Asian populations roughly 20,000- 15,000 years ago, coinciding with post-glacial isolation of the archipelago.

They maintained a relatively small effective population size for millennia and show some regional diversity, with later gene flow. Modern Japanese people carry roughly 10% autosomal Jōmon ancestry on average (higher in some regions and among the Ainu). The Jōmon were largely assimilated by incoming Yayoi migrants (associated with rice agriculture and Northeast Asian ancestry) beginning around 900- 300 BC.

End of the Period

The Jōmon era gradually gave way to the Yayoi period with the introduction of wet- rice agriculture, metallurgy, and new population movements from the Korean Peninsula and continent. In some northern areas, Jōmon- derived cultures persisted longer (sometimes called Epi- Jōmon).

The Jōmon period represents one of the longest continuous hunters- gatherer traditions with advanced material culture in the world, lasting roughly 10,000- 14,000 years and leaving a lasting genetic and cultural legacy in Japan.

A vibrant illustration of a prehistoric village by a river, depicting people engaging in various activities such as cooking over a fire, gathering food, and fishing, with thatched huts and colorful trees in the background. — Jomon period – NamuWiki

Paleolithic period climate and impacts in Japan

The Japanese Paleolithic (roughly 40,000/38,000- 14,000 years ago) occurred during the Late Pleistocene, spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 2. Climate was generally colder and often drier than today, with significant fluctuations that reshaped landscapes, vegetation, fauna, and human adaptations.

Key Climate Features

Early to middle phase (MIS 3, ~57,000- 29,000 years ago): Relatively warmer and more temperate conditions in places, though cooling overall. Lake Nojiri sediment records show temperate climates supporting megafauna around 53- 37 ka cal BP.
Cooling toward the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM): Gradual cooling from ~38 ka onward.
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, roughly 26,000- 19,000 years ago, peak ~24- 20 ka): Coldest phase. Mean temperatures were several degrees lower (estimates of 5- 9°C cooler in August depending on region; annual means ~6- 7°C cooler in some southern areas like Okinawa). Precipitation was often reduced, with drier conditions in many areas. Global sea levels dropped by ~120–140 m.⁠
Late Glacial and deglaciation (~18,000- 14,000 years ago): Rapid warming, increased humidity, and major vegetation shifts after ~14- 15 ka.

Volcanic tephra layers and pollen records (e.g., from Lake Nojiri) provide high- resolution proxies for these changes.

Geographic and Environmental Impacts

Lower sea levels created three main landmasses:

Paleo- Honshu (Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu as one large island).
Paleo- Hokkaido Peninsula (linked to Sakhalin and the Asian continent).
Expanded Ryukyu Islands.

This facilitated some animal migrations earlier in the Pleistocene but required watercraft for initial human arrival during MIS 3-2 (no continuous land bridges to the continent at the time of Homo sapiens colonization).

Vegetation:

Much of the archipelago was dominated by coniferous forests (subarctic/boreal types with Picea, Abies, Tsuga, Pinus).
Northern Hokkaido: parkland and tundra- like conditions.
Temperate broadleaf trees retreated to southern or humid valley refugia.
Abrupt post- LGM shift (~14 ka) from subarctic conifer forests to deciduous broadleaf forests.

Fauna:

Paleo- Honshu: Palaeoloxodon- Sinomegaceroides complex (Naumann’s elephant Palaeoloxodon naumanni, giant deer).
Northern areas: mammoth fauna in some periods.
Megafauna declined or went extinct around or after the LGM (~26,000 years ago on Paleo-Honshu for some large species), shifting hunting toward medium/small animals (deer, wild boar).

Impacts on Human Populations and Culture

Settlement and mobility: Site numbers increased after ~38 ka with the arrival of modern humans, but declined significantly during the LGM in areas like Lake Nojiri. High-altitude resource areas (e.g., Central Highlands obsidian sources) saw reduced use in the early LGM due to cold conditions.⁠
Subsistence: Heavy reliance on hunting in cold, open or coniferous landscapes with limited reliable plant foods (except in the Ryukyus). Post- LGM vegetation change supported greater plant use and set the stage for Jōmon adaptations.
Technology and culture: Lithic industries shifted in response to environmental change, e.g., trapezoids and edge- ground axes early on; backed blades, points, and later micro blades during colder phases. Different strategies developed in open northern landscapes versus forested Paleo-Honshu. Population fluctuations and cultural shifts (e.g., from Early to Middle Upper Paleolithic) correlate with cooling stadial.⁠
Overall adaptation: Humans showed flexible responses, adjusting mobility ranges, toolkits, and land use. The cold, unstable climate favored mobile hunter- gatherer lifestyles. Post- LGM warming and forest change coincided with increased activity and the transition to pottery- using Jōmon cultures (~15- 13 ka).

In summary, the cold, fluctuating climate of the Japanese Paleolithic, especially the LGM, drove major landscape restructuring through sea- level drop, forest shifts, and faunal change. These pressures shaped human colonization patterns, technological innovation, population dynamics, and the eventual transition to the more sedentary Jōmon period as conditions warmed.

A historical scene depicting individuals engaged in pottery making and farming in an ancient village, featuring thatched huts, rice paddies, and people tending to crops and livestock. — Jomon and Yayoi — Japan’s two prehistoric periods | Japan Culture Navi

Jōmon period climate and impacts

The Jōmon period (c. 14,000- 300 BC) unfolded during the Holocene, a time of post- glacial warming after the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate was generally warmer and wetter than the preceding Paleolithic, with rising sea levels that fully isolated the Japanese archipelago from the Asian continent. This created rich, diverse ecosystems that supported a long-lasting sedentary hunter- gatherer culture, though fluctuations still drove major cultural and demographic changes.

Key Climate Phases

Early Holocene and Incipient- Initial and Incipient (c. 14,000- 5,000 BC): Rapid warming after the Younger Dryas, with the Bølling- Allerød and Pre- Boreal warm intervals. Sea levels rose, forming productive coastal environments and shellfish-rich intertidal zones. Broadleaf forests (deciduous nut-bearing trees such as chestnut, oak, and walnut) expanded northward, replacing coniferous forests.
Holocene Climatic Optimum and Early- Middle Jōmon (roughly 9,000- 5,000 BP, peaking in the Middle Jōmon): Warmest and most stable phase. Temperatures were higher than today in many areas, with increased precipitation and strong East Asian summer monsoon influence. This supported peak population density, large settlements, and cultural florescence.
Cooling after the Middle Jōmon (from ~4,500- 4,200 BP onward): Gradual cooling, including the global 4.2 ka event (a significant cool, dry episode). Sea levels fluctuated and sometimes fell slightly. Evergreen forests expanded in the west, while conifers increased in some northern and inland areas. Other shorter Bond events (e.g., 8.2 ka) also caused temporary downturns.⁠

Volcanic events (such as the massive Kikai- Akahoya eruption ~7.3 ka) added abrupt local stresses through ash fall and possible short- term cooling.

Environmental Impacts

Sea- level rise created extensive coastlines, lagoons, and shell mounds, boosting marine resources (fish, shellfish).
Forest succession provided abundant plant foods (nuts, chestnuts managed through hansaibai, selective tending), enabling greater sedentism than pure hunting.
Regional differences: Northern Japan (Tōhoku, Hokkaido) remained cooler and more marine-oriented; western Japan saw stronger evergreen forest expansion.

Impacts on Jōmon Society and Culture

Population and settlements: Numbers and size of sites peaked during the warm Middle Jōmon (e.g., the large Sannai- Maruyama settlement in Aomori thrived ~5.9- 4.2 ka under warm conditions that favored chestnut management). Cooling after ~4.2 ka correlated with population decline, abandonment of large “hub” settlements, and a shift to smaller, more dispersed communities, especially in eastern and northern Japan.⁠
Subsistence adaptations: Warmer phases supported intensive plant use, fishing, and limited cultivation. Cooling reduced some terrestrial resources, prompting greater reliance on marine foods, food sharing, and possible dietary stress (e.g., evidence of increased scurvy in some Late Jōmon groups). People managed chestnut and lacquer trees, showing resilience.
Cultural responses: Pottery production expanded with warming and resource abundance. Technological and stylistic changes (projectile points, settlement organization) tracked climatic shifts. In Hokkaido, climate influenced the spread of related cultures through changes in ocean currents and westerlies.
Resilience and limits: Jōmon societies adapted flexibly for millennia through mobility, resource diversification, and social sharing. However, prolonged cooling and resource scarcity contributed to the eventual decline of classic Jōmon patterns and the transition toward Yayoi agriculture and migration.

In short, the post- glacial warming of the Holocene enabled the Jōmon’s remarkable longevity and complexity by creating productive forests and coasts. Yet cooling events, especially the 4.2 ka episode, triggered population reorganization, settlement collapse in some regions, and adaptive shifts that ultimately paved the way for the Yayoi period.

Thwaites Glacier Could Contribute Twice as Much Sea-Level Rise by 2100, New Model Shows

A new UC Irvine and NASA JPL study finds that Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) could contribute up to ~30 mm (1.2 inches) of global sea- level rise by 2100, roughly twice prior estimates, even under constant recent climate conditions (no additional warming).

The grounding zone is a transitional band (often several kilometers wide) at the edge of a marine-terminating glacier where ice shifts between resting on the seabed and floating on the ocean.

Aerial view of the Thwaites Glacier with visible ice and melting areas, highlighting potential contributions to sea-level rise by 2100. — AI generated by Grok

The research, led by Mattia Poinelli (then at UC Irvine, now UCLA) with Eric Rignot (UC Irvine) and colleagues from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and other institutions, was published in Nature Communications (October 2026). The paper is titled “Sea- level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation- constrained ice- sheet model.”

Key advance: modeling a “grounding zone” instead of a simple “grounding line”

Traditional ice- sheet models treat the transition from grounded ice to floating ice shelf as a narrow, discrete grounding line. Satellite radar data (including from the ICEYE constellation) show a broader grounding zone, often several kilometers wide, where warm, pressurized seawater repeatedly intrudes under ice that models previously treated as firmly grounded. This causes vigorous basal melting during tidal cycles.

By incorporating a grounding zone (typically 2- 5 and more km wide) into the Ice- sheet and Sea- level System Model (ISSM) and calibrating it against more than 20 years of observations (ice speed, thinning, and grounding-line position from the mid-1990s to 2023), the model much better reproduces the glacier’s rapid historical retreat, thinning, and acceleration. Without the zone, historical mass loss is under-reproduced by a factor of about four.

Projections

Under climate conditions held at the recent average:

No grounding zone: ~8.3 mm by 2100.
1 km zone: ~14.3 mm (near the ISMIP6 multi- model ensemble mean of ~15.2 mm).
3 km zone (statistically strong fit): ~19.4 mm.
5 km zone (consistent with current radar observations): ~30.1 ± ~6 mm, about twice the ensemble average.

Adding a realistic grounding zone increases the projected contribution substantially (more than extra ocean warming of 0.5- 0.7 °C in the model). The main trunk of Thwaites is currently stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge; simulations with wider zones give roughly a 60% probability of unpinning from it by 2100 (as early as the late 2030s in some runs), after which retreat can continue more readily over a deepening seafloor.

Context and caveats

Thwaites (sometimes called the “Doomsday Glacier”) holds enough ice for ~65 cm of global sea- level rise if fully melted and sits in a sector responsible for roughly one-third of Antarctic ice loss.

The new 30 mm figure is for Thwaites alone by 2100 under no further climate change; it is a lower- bound scenario that does not include additional warming, calving, or evolving zone width. Full collapse is not projected this century.⁠

Rignot noted that earlier projections struggled to match observed mass- loss rates due to missing physics; the updated model matches the record and yields higher projections, implying greater coastal flooding risk in coming decades than previously anticipated.

The authors recommend incorporating actively melting grounding zones into broader ice- sheet models and collecting more oceanographic data beneath the ice shelf.⁠

This builds on earlier 2024 UC Irvine- led satellite observations of kilometer- scale seawater intrusions under Thwaites.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

The grounding zone is a transitional band (often several kilometers wide) at the edge of a marine-terminating glacier where ice shifts between resting on the seabed and floating on the ocean.

It replaces the simpler traditional concept of a sharp “grounding line”.

Traditional grounding line vs. observed grounding zone

In classic ice- sheet models, the grounding line is treated as a narrow, discrete boundary: upstream of it, ice is firmly grounded on bedrock (supported by the solid Earth), and downstream it floats as an ice shelf. Ocean melting is typically assumed to drop to zero at or just beyond that line.

Satellite radar observations (especially high- resolution synthetic aperture radar from constellations like ICEYE) show a broader, dynamic grounding zone. At Thwaites Glacier, this zone is typically 2- 6 km (or more) wide along the main trunk, depending on the local bed slope. In shallower- slope areas it can reach ~6 km; on steeper flanks it is narrower (~2 km). Within this zone the ice is not permanently grounded or floating, it migrates and flexes with the tides.

How the mechanics work

Tidal flexure and lift- off
Ocean tides raise and lower the water level. Because ice is elastic and the bed is not perfectly flat, the floating ice shelf transmits this pressure inland. The ice sheet periodically lifts a few centimeters to tens of centimeters off the seabed over a multi- kilometer distance. When the tide falls, the ice settles again. This creates a migrating “hinge” or transition zone rather than a fixed line.
Seawater intrusion
As the ice lifts, pressurized seawater from the ocean cavity under the ice shelf is forced inland beneath the previously grounded ice. Intrusions can be only 5- 10 cm thick but can extend several kilometers upstream of the mean grounding position, especially into bed depressions or channels beyond stabilizing ridges (such as the Mouginot Ridge at Thwaites). The water is relatively warm (often several degrees above the in- situ freezing point) because it originates from Circumpolar Deep Water or modified versions of it that have been steered toward the Antarctic coast by climate- altered currents.
Vigorous basal melting
The intruding seawater contacts the underside of the ice over a large area. Melting rates in this zone can reach tens to over 100 meters of ice thickness per year, far higher than typical rates under fully grounded ice or even under many floating shelves. The meltwater and tidal pumping help flush the zone, continually renewing the heat supply. This basal melting thins the ice from below, reduces the effective weight of the ice column, and lowers basal friction (the ice is no longer fully “stuck” to the bed).
Feedback on ice flow and stability
Thinning and reduced basal resistance allow the ice to accelerate and stretch. Faster flow draws more ice from the interior. Because many West Antarctic beds slope downward inland (retrograde), once the grounding zone retreats past a stabilizing topographic high (a ridge or bump), the glacier can un- pin and continue retreating more readily. The wider the active melting zone, the easier and earlier this detachment becomes.

Why this matters for projections

Most earlier models that treated the transition as a thin line under- predicted the observed rates of thinning, acceleration, and grounding- line retreat at Thwaites. When models incorporate a multi- kilometer actively melting grounding zone and are calibrated to decades of satellite observations, they reproduce the historical changes far better and project roughly twice as much sea- level contribution by 2100 (up to ~30 mm from Thwaites alone under constant recent climate forcing).⁠

In short, the grounding zone acts as a dynamic “leaky hinge” where tidal pumping delivers warm ocean water deep under the ice sheet, driving enhanced melting, reducing stability, and accelerating mass loss in ways a simple grounding- line assumption cannot capture.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model

Abstract summary

Thwaites Glacier is a major contributor to Antarctic mass loss. Most models treat the grounded-to-floating transition as a sharp boundary and ignore kilometer-scale seawater intrusions that create an actively melting grounding zone. Using a calibrated Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), the authors show that actively melting grounding zones 2–5 km wide are required to reproduce nearly three decades (1996–2023) of observed retreat, thinning, and acceleration. Projecting the calibrated model forward under constant recent climate forcing yields up to 30 ± 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 2100—approximately double previous projections—because grounding-zone processes control detachment from stabilizing seafloor ridges (unpinning possible as early as 2038).

Key scientific points

Problem with traditional models

Standard ice- sheet models struggle to simultaneously match the observed rapid retreat (~25 km on the main trunk since 1996 at ~800 m yr⁻¹), thinning, and acceleration of Thwaites. They typically treat the grounding line as a discrete boundary and force melt rates toward zero there. Satellite data (especially ICEYE SAR) show a dynamic grounding zone several kilometers wide where warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water repeatedly intrudes under ice, lifts it during tidal cycles, and drives vigorous melting.

Model setup

Model: ISSM with a regularized Coulomb friction law.
Actively melting grounding zone of length L is explicitly parameterized; melt is allowed inland of the flotation line.
Initialized to a mid-1990s state.
Calibrated via Bayesian methods against three independent observational records (1996- 2023): surface velocity, ice thickness change, and grounding- line position.
A small, localized bed- elevation correction (within map uncertainty) was applied to satisfy flotation consistency with the 1996 grounding line.

Historical reconstruction results

Simulations without a grounding zone require unrealistically high melt rates (~150 m yr⁻¹) and still under-predict later discharge, thinning, acceleration, and retreat.
Grounding zones of 2- 5 km with melt rates of 90-120 m yr⁻¹ (consistent with satellite and ocean-model estimates) successfully reproduce concurrent retreat of both the main trunk and the eastern ice shelf, the observed ~32 m of grounded-ice thinning, and the acceleration.
Simulations lacking a grounding zone are four times less likely to match the historical record.

Future projections (constant 1996- 2023 climate forcing, a lower- bound scenario)

The main trunk is currently stabilized by the Mouginot Ridge (~950 m below sea level).
Probability of unpinning from this ridge by 2100:
- No zone or 1 km zone → essentially 0% (stays pinned).
- 2- 3 km zone → ~45%.
- 4- 6 km zone (consistent with recent observations) → ~60%, with unpinning as early as 2038.
Once unpinned, the glacier retreats more readily across retrograde seafloor toward the South Ridge.
Sea- level contribution by 2100 (melt rate fixed near the observationally preferred ~110 m yr⁻¹):
- No grounding zone: 8.3 ± 3.0 mm
- 1 km zone: 14.3 ± 3.1 mm (near the ISMIP6 ensemble mean of 15.2 mm)
- 3 km zone: 19.4 ± 5.2 mm
- 5 km zone: 30.1 ± 5.7 mm (twice the ISMIP6 mean)

Simply including a grounding zone raises the contribution by ~51%; each extra kilometer of zone width changes it by ~22% on average. Moderate additional ocean warming (+0.5- 0.7 °C) adds only ~15% more loss, so grounding-zone extent is the stronger control under the tested conditions.

Discussion and limitations

The authors emphasize that representing actively melting grounding zones, combined with observational calibration, substantially improves both hindcast skill and projection reliability. Limitations include:

Fixed (time- averaged) grounding- zone length rather than a prognostic, evolving one.
No explicit reduction in basal friction from seawater lubrication.
No evolving sub- shelf cavity geometry or full ocean circulation.
No calving or interannual ocean variability.
The projections are deliberately a lower- bound scenario (no further climate warming).

They conclude that actively melting grounding zones should be incorporated into regional and continental-scale ice- sheet models and call for more oceanographic measurements beneath the ice shelf.

The full paper (including methods, figures, and supplementary material) is available at the link you provided; a PDF download is offered on the page.

Journal: Nature Communications on 12 October 2026 (open access).

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77976-1

Provided: University of California, Irvine

Authors: Mattia Poinelli,
Eric Rignot,
Hélène Seroussi,
Joshua Cuzzone,
Tyler Pelle &
Eric Larour

ACE Index reveals a DECREASE, not increase, in Northern Hemsisphere tropical cylones.

If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven’t heard what’s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it’s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.

A satellite view of the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding land, showing a hurricane with cloudy formation near the center. — Hurricane Laura from Space. Extremely detailed and realistich high resolution 3d illustration.

From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

IOW, the average over the last 6 years out there has been as feeble as our Atlantic Basin is this year in total ACE. This is because a large-scale event is reducing, not increasing, tropical activity and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite of what you are being told. I will show those numbers later

But first, in the western Pacific.

Average ACE for 2019–2025: approximately 209.

The north Atlantic this year is about 100 ACE points below average (season may not be done yet).

But the point is, the western Pacific, the busiest basin in the world, up until this year, is averaging almost as far below normal as the Atlantic is this year.

Are you aware of this?

And the Northern Hemisphere ACE index (where most of the global ACE occurs) since 2019 is averaging 13% below normal (it’s averaged 497; normal is 571).

So, the total ACE index has been significantly below average.

The Ace/storm in that time is 7.4.

In the previous 20 years, it was 9.04.

The AI conclusion:

Recent Northern Hemisphere seasons have had both fewer/less intense systems overall and less ACE generated per named storm. The drop shows up in both the seasonal totals and the intensity-duration metric.

So, tropical cyclones are not getting worse.

Which fits with the ideas I have put forth that the nature of the warming, more in higher latitudes than lower, and more poleward than toward the equator, is leading to a more stable climate.

You can’t claim overall it’s getting worse if it’s not. Fewer storms globally and less intense, is not more storms and more intense. Although, with some of the things going on today, someone will argue that is not true. Fill in the blanks for your favorite example of that.

The media ignores this and simply pushes any big event, of which there were more before. They ignore that western Pacific and activity has been decreasing, not increasing. You only hear about it when there is some kind of major storm.

A major balancing act is occurring here. This year, for instance, is likely to end as a record-high year for ACE in the eastern Pacific. Even when they don’t hit the U.S., storms contribute to wave action that can cause major flooding in Southern California. Waves radiate outward from tropical cyclones, so Marie and Rachel got out to the southwest of California, and the wave action piles up when it reaches the coast. It’s not climate change. In fact, here is Grok’s response to the question of when I first warned of what was going to happen with Rachel:

September 30, 2026, is the earliest clear public statement by Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) specifically warning that Tropical Storm Rachel would produce significantly larger waves (and related coastal impacts).

That’s a 10-day warming

The flooding is indirectly related to the strong El Niño because it leads to more tropical cyclones. We knew that before the season and warned back in April that storms would hit Mexico this year. In the Atlantic, the El Niño plus the configuration of the Atlantic SST (sea surface temperature) has led to the down year. But the point is, someone always has a down year. What has been significant is it’s been mainly in the busiest basin on the planet, and it’s never reported on because it’s a sign of tranquility.

And in the Northern Hemisphere overall, there is more down than up as the numbers clearly show.

As I said, the Atlantic sea surface temperature configuration (something we talked about in the pre-season) has a lot to do with it.

Look at the El Niño of 2023:

A map depicting sea surface temperature variations across the Atlantic Ocean, with areas of warmer temperatures shown in orange and red, cooler regions in blue and green, and geographical outlines of North and South America.

Healthy El Niño, but the water is warm through the tropics in a way that encourages development.

So, most of the action was out to sea; the number of storms and the ACE index were way above normal.

Named storms: 20
ACE index: 148.2

Normal is 14 storms and ACE 123.

Now look at this year:

Map showing sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, with warmer areas depicted in shades of orange and red, and cooler areas in blue and green.

Very warm water to the north. Sure, there is a strong El Niño, but we have had only 9 storms and an ACE near 20.

The strong El Niño of 2015 had 11 storms and an ACE of 62.7.

The strong El Niño of 1997 had eight storms and an ACE of 40.

This year sticks out like a sore thumb, and it’s because of the way its warming.

So, the way the Atlantic is warm this year is helping to cut it.

Next year, we are already thinking it looks like a blend of 1998 and 2024, both high-impact years.

Bottom line: The idea that tropical cyclones are becoming more numerous and more intense is the opposite of what has been happening as the Earth warms. And it points to the fact that the way it’s warming promotes a more stable climate overall. More stable lapse rates and less zonal available potential energy are the opposite of what is needed for the anarchy that man-made global warming pushers want to brainwash people into believing (which they have in many cases, with the aid of media with a lack of integrity to actually look at the total picture). Tropical cyclones are yet another example of this.

Ocean Circulation Continues for Centuries Even After Key AMOC Engine Shuts Down

The Ocean Circulation That Persists Even After a Key AMOC Component Fails, by Nathaniel Scharping (Eos, American Geophysical Union, published 13 October 2026), is a research spotlight summarizing a study in AGU Advances.

Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) is a fully coupled, open- source global Earth system model developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the broader research community. It simulates Earth’s past, present, and future climate and Earth-system states and served as a major contributor to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Model output from preindustrial control, historical, and other experiments is publicly available (e.g., via ESGF). CESM2 has been applied in diverse studies, including AMOC behavior under CO₂ quadrupling, ice-sheet coupling, sub seasonal prediction, and chemistry- climate interactions.

Map illustrating the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), showing warm surface currents in red/orange flowing northward and cold deep currents in blue returning southward at depth. — AI generated by Grok

It covers work by Shantong Sun and Andrew F. Thompson showing that a cross-hemispheric overturning circulation can continue for centuries even after North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, the sinking branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), shuts down under extreme warming.

Key points from the study

Climate models disagree on the AMOC’s future under warming. The researchers used a hierarchy of models, including the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) under a CO₂- quadrupling scenario and an idealized reduced- gravity ocean model.
In the CESM2 simulation, NADW formation fully ceases, yet the cross- hemispheric overturning transport slows only gradually and persists for centuries.
This residual circulation is not driven by a steady balance of sinking and rising water (diapycnal processes). Instead, it arises from a transient adjustment: progressive deepening of density layers (isopycnal surfaces) that rearranges the ocean’s stratification.
The same behavior appears in the idealized model, confirming the mechanism.
The circulation is therefore temporary; it may last several centuries until the ocean reaches a new density distribution, after which it could change further. Predicting the AMOC’s ultimate fate remains difficult.

Broader implications

The continued interbasin flow leads to a clockwise overturning circulation in the Indo- Pacific. This redistributes heat (shifting more into intermediate depths and potentially keeping the surface cooler), biogeochemical tracers, and ventilation. Expected effects include reduced nutrient- rich water in the upper ocean and substantially older ventilation ages in the deep Atlantic, with possible wide- ranging consequences for marine ecosystems and global climate.

The original research article is “Transient Global Overturning Following the Shutdown of North Atlantic Deep Water Formation” (Sun & Thompson, AGU Advances, 2026; DOI: 10.1029/2026AV002462).

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Overview and purpose

CESM2 is the successor to CESM1 and includes substantial scientific and infrastructure improvements. It is maintained primarily by the Climate and Global Dynamics (CGD) Laboratory at NSF NCAR, with primary support from the U.S. National Science Foundation. The model is widely used for climate research, including studies of ocean circulation (such as AMOC responses under extreme forcing), paleoclimate, and future projections.⁠

Official site: https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm2

Main components

CESM2 couple’s interactive models for multiple Earth system components that exchange states and fluxes:

Atmosphere: Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6; low-top ~40 km with limited chemistry, or high-top Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model/WACCM6 extending to ~130- 140 km with comprehensive chemistry).
Ocean: Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2).
Land: Community Land Model (CLM).
Sea ice: Community Ice CodE (CICE).
Land ice: Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM).
River runoff: Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART).
Waves: WaveWatch III (WW3).

Key improvements and performance relative to CESM1

CESM2 shows better agreement with observations in several areas, including reduced low- latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases, improved representation of the Madden- Julian Oscillation, better El Niño- Southern Oscillation teleconnections, and a more realistic global land carbon accumulation trend.

Climate sensitivity (a measure of long- term global temperature response to doubled CO₂):

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS): approximately 5.1- 5.3 °C (higher than CESM1, largely due to changes in cloud microphysics and boundary- layer parameters).
Transient climate response (TCR): about 1.9- 2.0 °C (comparable to CESM1).⁠

These higher ECS values have been noted in the literature; some studies examine whether they affect 21st- century projections or paleoclimate simulations.

Current releases (as of recent information)

Supported production release: CESM 2.1.5 (recommended for most science applications, especially CMIP6- related work).
Developmental release: CESM 2.2.2 (includes newer features but is not yet scientifically supported with long validated simulations).⁠

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Transient Global Overturning Following the Shutdown of North Atlantic Deep-Water Formation

Abstract summary

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken under climate warming, raising concerns about a possible collapse. Recent work has suggested that wind- driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean may prevent a full AMOC collapse even under extreme forcing.

This study analyzes a climate model (CESM2) under CO₂ quadrupling and shows that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation can completely cease under extreme warming. Despite this shutdown, a cross-hemispheric overturning circulation persists for centuries.

This residual circulation is a transient adjustment of the global ocean caused by progressive deepening of isopycnal (density) surfaces, rather than sustained diapycnal (across- density) downwelling in the interior ocean. The same adjustment explains the emergence of a clockwise overturning circulation in the Indo-Pacific even without deep- water formation there.

These features are reproduced in an idealized 1.5- layer reduced- gravity model. The transient overturning has important climate implications: it redistributes heat into intermediate depths (helping mitigate surface warming) and reorganizes ocean tracers, altering global patterns of nutrients and ventilation that may feed back onto the climate system.

Key findings (from the paper and the Eos research spotlight)

In the CESM2 CO₂- quadrupling experiment, NADW formation shuts down, but cross- hemispheric overturning transport only slows gradually and continues for centuries.
A buoyancy- budget analysis shows that the apparent downwelling in the Atlantic and Indo- Pacific after NADW cessation is mainly adiabatic (linked to the deepening of density layers) rather than diabatic.
The continued circulation is therefore temporary: it reflects the ocean adjusting toward a new stratification state and may last several centuries before further change.
One consequence is the development of clockwise overturning in the Indo- Pacific, which redistributes heat, nutrients, and ventilation. Expected effects include more heat stored at intermediate depths (keeping the surface relatively cooler), reduced nutrient concentrations in the upper ocean, and substantially older ventilation ages in the deep Atlantic.

Data and models

CESM2 output from the Earth System Grid Federation (CMIP6 node).
Idealized reduced- gravity model code available on figshare.

The full PDF (and supporting files including the original manuscript and peer-review history) is freely available via CaltechAUTHORS: https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/26z4c-48×90.

This paper is the scientific source highlighted in the Eos article “The Ocean Circulation That Persists Even After a Key AMOC Component Fails” by Nathaniel Scharping (13 October 2026).

Journal: AGU Advances, Volume 7, Issue 5, e2026AV002462

DOI: 10.1029/2026av002462

Provided: American Geophysical Union

Published: 22 August 2026 (online)

Open access under Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial- NoDerivs License.

Authors: Shantong Sun, (Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China) and

Andrew F. Thomps, (California Institute of Technology)

Peer Review :The peer review history for this article is available as a PDF in the Supporting Information.

Key Findings

Context and Implications

Core Shared Principles

ETAS Model

STEP Model

Main Differences

Practical Use

Abstract Summary

Background and Methods

Key Results Highlights

Discussion and Implications

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TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument)

GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite)

How they are used together

Key findings

Why emissions stayed flat while production rose

Regional notes

Abstract

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Key methods and findings

Geochemical Characteristics

Petrogenetic Models

Geodynamic Significance

Modern Analogues and Distribution

Abstract (summary)

Methods highlights

Broader implication

Abstract

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Paleolithic period

Jōmon period

Chronology and Environment

Stone Tool Technology

History of Research and the Fujimura Hoax

Transition to the Jōmon Period

Chronology

Lifestyle, Settlements, and Economy

Pottery

Archaeology and Key Sites

Genetics and Origins

End of the Period

Key Climate Features

Geographic and Environmental Impacts

Impacts on Human Populations and Culture

Key Climate Phases

Environmental Impacts

Impacts on Jōmon Society and Culture

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Key advance: modeling a “grounding zone” instead of a simple “grounding line”

Projections

Context and caveats

Traditional grounding line vs. observed grounding zone

How the mechanics work

Why this matters for projections

Abstract summary

Key scientific points

Discussion and limitations

Like this:

Like this:

Key points from the study

Broader implications

Overview and purpose

Main components

Key improvements and performance relative to CESM1

Current releases (as of recent information)

Abstract summary

Key findings (from the paper and the Eos research spotlight)

Data and models

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