How Climate Builtโ€”and Nearly Brokeโ€”Ancient Egypt

Ancient Egypt was one of the longest- lasting civilizations in history, thriving along the Nile River for roughly 3,000 years (from around 3100 BCE to 30 BCE). Its history is traditionally divided into periods of strong centralized rule (โ€œKingdomsโ€) separated by times of fragmentation and foreign influence (โ€œIntermediate Periodsโ€). The civilizationโ€™s success rested on the predictable annual Nile floods, which supported intensive agriculture, surplus food, a strong central state, and monumental architecture.

Climate played a foundational role in both the rise of ancient Egyptian civilization and several of its major periods of stress or decline.

Egyptโ€™s entire society depended on the Nile Riverโ€™s annual floods, which deposited fertile silt and enabled intensive agriculture in an otherwise arid landscape. Local rainfall was minimal; the floods were driven primarily by monsoon rains over the Ethiopian highlands (feeding the Blue Nile) and equatorial Africa (White Nile).

A split scene depicting ancient Egypt; on the left, lush green fields, the Nile River, and pyramids under a bright sky, illustrating prosperity, while on the right, a desolate landscape with cracked earth, ruins, and dark stormy skies, representing decline and climate challenges.
AI generated by Grok

Ancient Egypt was one of the longest- lasting civilizations in history, thriving along the Nile River for roughly 3,000 years (from around 3100 BCE to 30 BCE). Its history is traditionally divided into periods of strong centralized rule (โ€œKingdomsโ€) separated by times of fragmentation and foreign influence (โ€œIntermediate Periodsโ€). The civilizationโ€™s success rested on the predictable annual Nile floods, which supported intensive agriculture, surplus food, a strong central state, and monumental architecture.

Rise: Unification and Early Strength

In the Predynastic Period (c. 5000- 3100 BCE), communities along the Nile shifted from nomadic hunting and gathering to settled agriculture. Villages grew into towns, early forms of hieroglyphic writing emerged, and distinct cultures developed in Upper Egypt (south) and Lower Egypt (north, the Nile Delta).

Around 3100 BCE, Upper and Lower Egypt were unified under a ruler traditionally identified as Narmer (also associated with the legendary Menes). This event marks the start of the Early Dynastic Period (Dynasties 1- 2, c. 3100- 2686 BCE). A capital was established at Memphis, the concept of the divine pharaoh (as the living embodiment of Horus) solidified, and early administrative and religious systems took shape.

The Old Kingdom (Dynasties 3- 6, c. 2686- 2181 BCE) represents the first major peak.

Centralized power enabled the construction of the Step Pyramid of Djoser (designed by Imhotep) and the great pyramids at Giza (built for Khufu, Khafre, and Menkaure). Solar worship (centered on Ra) rose, along with early development of the Osiris cult. Egypt expanded its influence and trade networks.

Cycles of Decline and Recovery

The Old Kingdom collapsed into the First Intermediate Period (c. 2181- 2040 BCE) due to a combination of factors: weakening of central authority, succession problems, rising power of local governors (nomarchs), and severe climate stress (including the 4.2- kiloyear event around 2200 BCE). Prolonged droughts and low Nile floods caused famine, leading to political fragmentation between northern and southern centers.

The Middle Kingdom (c. 2055/2030- 1650 BCE) began with reunification under Mentuhotep II of Thebes. It was a time of renewed prosperity, stronger central control (especially under Senwosret III), expansion into Nubia, and cultural flourishing (literature, art, and the Coffin Texts). Decline set in with weaker later rulers and loss of control over peripheral areas.

The Second Intermediate Period (c. 1650- 1550 BCE) saw foreign Hyksos rulers (of Levantine origin) control the Delta while native dynasties held the south. The Hyksos introduced technologies such as the horse- drawn chariot and composite bow. They were eventually expelled by Ahmose I, founding the New Kingdom.

Peak: The New Kingdom Empire

The New Kingdom (Dynasties 18- 20, c. 1550- 1070 BCE) was Egyptโ€™s imperial high point. Pharaohs expanded territory from Nubia in the south into the Levant and parts of modern Syria. Famous rulers include Hatshepsut (a powerful female pharaoh), Thutmose III (great military conqueror), Amenhotep III, Akhenaten (who briefly promoted monotheistic Aten worship), Tutankhamun, Seti I, and Ramesses II (the Great). Monumental temples (Karnak, Luxor, Abu Simbel), the Valley of the Kings, and international diplomacy and trade flourished.

Gradual Fall

Decline began in the late New Kingdom. Factors included:

  • Overextension from costly wars and building projects.
  • Invasions and pressure from the Sea Peoples (repelled by Ramesses III but at great cost).
  • Prolonged drought, famine, and disruption of Mediterranean trade networks during the wider Late Bronze Age collapse (around 1200 BCE).
  • Growing power of the priesthood of Amun, economic strain, corruption, and civil unrest.

This led to the Third Intermediate Period (c. 1070- 664 BCE), with divided rule (pharaohs in the north, high priests of Amun in the south), Libyan dynasties, and eventual Nubian (Kushite) reunification under the 25th Dynasty. Assyrian invasions in the 7th century BCE ended Nubian control.

The Late Period (c. 664- 332 BCE) saw a Saite revival (26th Dynasty) under Psamtik I, followed by two periods of Persian (Achaemenid) rule, interspersed with brief native independence. Egypt became a Persian satrapy.

In 332 BCE, Alexander the Great conquered Egypt. After his death, the Ptolemaic Dynasty (Greek Macedonian rulers, 305- 30 BCE) governed, blending Greek and Egyptian traditions (most famously under Cleopatra VII). Native Egyptians were often marginalized politically. The dynasty ended with the defeat of Cleopatra and Mark Antony by Octavian (Augustus) in 30 BCE, after which Egypt became a Roman province.

Key Factors in Rise and Fall

  • Rise: Nile- based agriculture and surplus; geographic protection (deserts); strong ideology of divine kingship; effective bureaucracy and writing; control of trade routes.
  • Fall: Climate variability and droughts that reduced Nile floods; internal political fragmentation and succession crises; economic overreach and inequality (temples and elites controlling land); military technological lag at times; repeated foreign invasions (Hyksos, Libyans, Nubians, Assyrians, Persians, Greeks, Romans).

Egyptian culture, religion, language, and artistic traditions proved highly resilient and continued under foreign rule for centuries, influencing later Mediterranean and Near Eastern societies. The end of independent pharaonic rule in 30 BCE marks the conventional close of โ€œancient Egyptโ€, though its legacy endures.

Map of Ancient Egypt depicting major sites and geographical features, including the Nile River, Lower and Upper Egypt, and significant locations like Giza, Thebes, and Abu Simbel.
Map of Ancient Egypt, AI generated by Meta

Cleopatra VII (Cleopatra VII Philopator) is widely regarded as the last pharaoh of Egypt.

She ruled from 51 BCE until her death in 30 BCE as a member of the Ptolemaic (Macedonian Greek) dynasty, which had governed Egypt since the time of Ptolemy I after Alexander the Greatโ€™s conquest. She initially co- ruled with her younger brothers (Ptolemy XIII and then Ptolemy XIV) and later with her son Ptolemy XV Caesarion (also known as Caesarion, son of Julius Caesar).

After her defeat (along with Mark Antony) by Octavian (the future Emperor Augustus) at the Battle of Actium in 31 BCE and the subsequent Roman invasion of Egypt, Cleopatra died by suicide in Alexandria in August 30 BCE.

Egypt then became a Roman province, ending more than three millennia of independent pharaonic rule.

Key nuances

  • Caesarion was briefly the nominal sole ruler for a short time after Cleopatraโ€™s death before Octavian had him executed. Cleopatra is still considered the last active and effective pharaoh.
  • The last native Egyptian pharaoh (of fully Egyptian ancestry) was Nectanebo II of the 30th Dynasty (reigned c. 360- 343/342 BCE), before the second Persian conquest.
  • Later Roman emperors were sometimes depicted and given traditional pharaonic titles by Egyptians in temple contexts (as a form of local recognition), with the practice continuing in a limited way until around the early 4th century CE (e.g., Maximinus Daza). However, they ruled Egypt as a Roman province and are not counted as traditional independent pharaohs.

In standard historical accounts, Cleopatra VII marks the end of the long line of pharaohs.

Infographic illustrating the climate system of the Nile and its influence on ancient Egypt, featuring sections on the Ethiopian Highlands and Equatorial Africa as sources of rainfall.
AI generated by Meta

Climate played a foundational role in both the rise of ancient Egyptian civilization and several of its major periods of stress or decline.

Egyptโ€™s entire society depended on the Nile Riverโ€™s annual floods, which deposited fertile silt and enabled intensive agriculture in an otherwise arid landscape. Local rainfall was minimal; the floods were driven primarily by monsoon rains over the Ethiopian highlands (feeding the Blue Nile) and equatorial Africa (White Nile).

Climate and the Rise of Ancient Egypt

During the early- to- mid Holocene (roughly 10,000- 6,000/5,000 years ago), the Sahara experienced a โ€œGreen Saharaโ€ or African Humid Period. Higher rainfall supported grasslands, lakes, and widespread human settlement across what is now desert. As Earthโ€™s orbital changes caused the African monsoon to weaken and shift southward, the region gradually aridified.

Populations that had lived as pastoralists or foragers in the Sahara were forced toward the more reliable Nile Valley. This concentration of people along a narrow, highly productive floodplain created the conditions for denser settlement, intensive agriculture, social complexity, and eventual state formation. By the Predynastic period (c. 5000- 3100 BCE), the climate was generally wetter than today, with higher Nile flows supporting early farming communities.

The unification of Upper and Lower Egypt around 3100 BCE (under Narmer/Menes) and the rise of a centralized state coincided with the later stages of this drying process, which increased โ€œenvironmental circumscriptionโ€, making the Nile Valley far more productive than the surrounding hinterland and encouraging political consolidation and control over resources.

Reliable (but not excessive) Nile floods allowed surplus food production, population growth, specialized labor, monumental architecture, and a strong central administration. Extreme floods or prolonged low floods could disrupt this system.

Major Climate Impacts Across Egyptian History

Climate variability continued to influence Egypt throughout its history.

Key patterns and events include:

  • Predynastic to early Old Kingdom: Generally favorable or transitional conditions with relatively high Nile flows supporting the development of hieroglyphs, early towns, and unification.
  • Old Kingdom (c. 2686- 2181 BCE) and the 4.2-kiloyear event: The most famous climate- linked crisis. Around 2200 BCE (the 4.2 ka BP aridification event), a widespread megadrought affected the Mediterranean, Near East, and parts of Africa and Asia. In Egypt, this meant weaker summer monsoons in Ethiopia, reduced Nile flood volumes and baseflow, increased aridity, encroachment of desert sand into the valley, and lower agricultural yields. Evidence includes sediment cores from the Nile Delta and Saqqara showing low floods, higher aeolian (wind- blown) inputs, and changes in pollen and isotopes. Contemporary texts describe famine, and the centralized state fragmented into the First Intermediate Period. Climate stress interacted with internal factors (weak succession after the long reign of Pepi II, rising power of local governors, and administrative strain). It was a major contributing factor rather than the sole cause.
  • Middle Kingdom recovery: Conditions improved somewhat (moister overall), supporting reunification and prosperity, though a drier phase contributed to later decline.
  • New Kingdom and later: The period ended under drier conditions. Broader Late Bronze Age stresses (including droughts around 1200 BCE) affected the eastern Mediterranean and contributed to pressures on Egypt (e.g., Sea Peoples invasions), though Egypt proved more resilient than some neighbors.
  • Ptolemaic period (late centuries BCE): Volcanic eruptions (sometimes distant, such as in Alaska) could suppress the African monsoon, lowering Nile floods for years. Studies link certain low- flood years to crop failures, economic stress, disease, and social unrest that compounded political challenges leading toward the dynastyโ€™s end.

After the Late Period, an increasingly arid climate became established across the Nile Basin and has largely persisted.

Overall Pattern and Resilience

Ancient Egypt repeatedly adapted to climate variability through irrigation, grain storage, centralized redistribution, and administrative responses. Periods of stable or moderate Nile floods supported prosperity and state strength. Extreme low floods (drought) or occasionally excessive flooding often correlated with political instability, famine risk, and fragmentation, especially when combined with other stressors such as succession crises, elite competition, or foreign threats.

Climate was never the only factor, but Egyptโ€™s extreme dependence on a single river system made it particularly sensitive to changes in monsoon strength, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and related global climate patterns (including possible links to North Atlantic Oscillation or volcanic aerosols). Modern paleoclimate research, using sediment cores, isotopes, pollen, lake levels, and historical Nile records, continues to refine this picture.

A scenic view of a river landscape featuring a village with thatched-roof huts, surrounded by lush green fields, elephants, giraffes, and hippos in the water.
โ€œGreen Saharaโ€ or African Humid Period, AI generated by Meta

Major climate impacts on ancient Egypt centered on the Nile Riverโ€™s annual floods, which were the foundation of agriculture, surplus production, and state power in an otherwise arid environment.

Egypt received almost no significant local rainfall; floods depended on monsoon rains far upstream in the Ethiopian highlands (Blue Nile) and equatorial Africa (White Nile). Variations in these floods, driven by shifts in the African monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and broader climate patterns, repeatedly shaped the civilizationโ€™s trajectory.

1. Drying of the Sahara and the Rise of the State (c. 6000- 3100 BCE)

During the early- to- mid Holocene โ€œGreen Saharaโ€ (African Humid Period), higher rainfall supported grasslands, lakes, and widespread settlement across what is now desert. As orbital changes weakened the monsoon and shifted it southward, the region aridified. Populations migrated toward the more reliable Nile Valley. This concentration of people along a narrow, highly productive floodplain enabled denser settlement, intensive farming, social complexity, and the eventual unification of Upper and Lower Egypt around 3100 BCE. The drying process increased โ€œenvironmental circumscription,โ€ making the Nile core far more productive than the hinterland and favoring centralized control.

2. The 4.2- Kiloyear Event and Collapse of the Old Kingdom (c. 2200 BCE)

This is the most significant and best-documented climate crisis. Around 2200 BCE, a widespread megadrought (the 4.2 ka BP aridification event) affected large parts of the Mediterranean, Near East, Africa, and Asia. In Egypt it produced:

  • Weaker summer monsoons over Ethiopia.
  • Sharply reduced Nile flood volumes and baseflow.
  • Increased aridity, encroachment of desert sand into the valley, and lower agricultural yields.
  • Famine and food shortages documented in contemporary texts.

Sediment cores from the Nile Delta, Saqqara, Faiyum, and other sites show low floods, higher wind-blown sand, changes in pollen, and isotopic evidence of drier conditions. The centralized Old Kingdom fragmented into the First Intermediate Period of political division and local rule. Climate stress interacted with internal factors (long reign of Pepi II, succession issues, and rising power of provincial governors), acting as a major contributing cause rather than the sole one.

3. Later Periods of Drought and Variability

  • End of the Middle Kingdom and Second Intermediate Period: A drier phase contributed to decline and vulnerability to foreign (Hyksos) control.
  • Late New Kingdom / Late Bronze Age (around 1200 BCE): Broader regional droughts and climate stress across the eastern Mediterranean reduced Nile reliability, strained resources, and coincided with invasions (including by the Sea Peoples), economic pressure, and the transition to the Third Intermediate Period.
  • Ptolemaic Period (especially late centuries BCE): Distant volcanic eruptions could suppress the African monsoon for years, producing abnormally low Nile floods. These led to crop failures, economic hardship, disease outbreaks, and social unrest that compounded political weaknesses and contributed to the dynastyโ€™s challenges.

4. Long-Term Aridification

After the Late Period, an increasingly arid climate became established across the Nile Basin and has largely persisted to the present, with occasional severe drought episodes in later historical times.

Overall Pattern

Stable or moderate Nile floods supported prosperity, population growth, and strong central government. Extreme low floods (drought) or occasionally excessive flooding often correlated with political instability, famine risk, and fragmentation, especially when combined with succession crises, elite competition, or external threats. Egypt repeatedly adapted through irrigation works, grain storage, centralized redistribution, and administrative responses, which helped it survive longer than many contemporary societies.

Paleoclimate evidence (sediment cores, isotopes from shells and sediments, pollen records, lake levels, and historical flood data) continues to refine these connections.

Climate was rarely the only factor, but Egyptโ€™s extreme dependence on a single river system made it highly sensitive to monsoon variability and related global climate shifts.

An infographic illustrating how climate and the Nile River contributed to the development of Ancient Egypt, highlighting monsoon rains, the confluence of the Blue and White Nile, and the impact of annual floods on agriculture.
AI generated by Meta

UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for September 2026: +0.61 deg. C

The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September 2026 was +0.61 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the August 2026 value of +0.68 deg. C.

Graph displaying UAH satellite-based temperature variations of the global lower atmosphere from 1979 to 2026. The chart shows temperature departures from the 1991-2020 average, with a linear trend line indicating an increase of +0.16 degrees Celsius per decade. The data points are represented by blue dots, and a red trend line highlights the running centered 13-month average, noting a temperature of +0.61 degrees Celsius as of September 2026.

From Roy Spencer, PhD

October 2nd, 2026 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September 2026 was +0.61 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down from the August 2026 value of +0.68 deg. C.

Line graph depicting UAH satellite-based temperature data of the global lower atmosphere from 1979 to 2026, showing temperature departures from the 1991-2020 average in degrees Celsius, with a linear trend indicating an increase of +0.16 deg. C per decade.

The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through September 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).

The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 33 months (record highs are in red).

YearMonGlobeNHemSHemTropicUS48ArcticAust.Can.
2024Jan+0.80+1.02+0.57+1.20-0.19+0.40+1.12+0.97
2024Feb+0.88+0.94+0.81+1.16+1.31+0.85+1.16+2.45
2024Mar+0.88+0.96+0.80+1.25+0.22+1.05+1.34+1.12
2024Apr+0.94+1.12+0.76+1.15+0.86+0.88+0.54+1.39
2024May+0.77+0.77+0.78+1.20+0.04+0.20+0.52+0.67
2024June+0.69+0.78+0.60+0.85+1.36+0.63+0.91+0.19
2024July+0.73+0.86+0.61+0.96+0.44+0.56-0.07+1.15
2024Aug+0.75+0.81+0.69+0.74+0.40+0.88+1.75+1.36
2024Sep+0.81+1.04+0.58+0.82+1.31+1.48+0.98
2024Oct+0.75+0.89+0.60+0.63+1.89+0.81+1.09+0.89
2024Nov+0.64+0.87+0.40+0.53+1.11+0.79+1.00+1.61
2024Dec+0.61+0.75+0.47+0.52+1.41+1.12+1.54+1.65
2025Jan+0.45+0.70+0.21+0.24-1.07+0.74+0.48+1.04
2025Feb+0.50+0.55+0.45+0.26+1.03+2.10+0.87-0.35
2025Mar+0.57+0.73+0.41+0.40+1.24+1.23+1.20+0.80
2025Apr+0.61+0.76+0.46+0.36+0.81+0.85+1.21+0.45
2025May+0.50+0.45+0.55+0.30+0.15+0.75+0.98+0.81
2025June+0.48+0.48+0.47+0.30+0.80+0.05+0.39-0.22
2025July+0.36+0.49+0.23+0.45+0.32+0.40+0.53-0.23
2025Aug+0.39+0.39+0.39+0.16-0.06+0.82+0.11+0.62
2025Sep+0.53+0.56+0.49+0.35+0.38+0.77+0.30+2.44
2025Oct+0.53+0.52+0.55+0.24+1.12+1.42+1.67+2.59
2025Nov+0.43+0.59+0.27+0.24+1.32+0.78+0.36+1.47
2025Dec+0.30+0.45+0.15+0.19+2.10+0.32+0.37-1.86
2026Jan+0.35+0.51+0.19+0.09+0.30+1.40+0.95+1.17
2026Feb+0.39+0.54+0.23+0.03+1.91-0.48+0.73+0.32
2026Mar+0.38+0.33+0.42+0.07+3.74-0.48+1.14-3.17
2026Apr+0.39+0.43+0.34+0.23+1.20+0.30+0.70-0.89
2026May+0.53+0.46+0.60+0.58+0.21+0.34+0.10+0.21
2026June+0.46+0.54+0.38+0.57+0.64+1.01+0.38+0.99
2026July+0.48+0.68+0.27+0.85+1.14+0.53-0.22+0.78
2026Aug+0.68+0.76+0.59+0.90+0.60+0.80+0.39+0.71
2026Sep+0.61+0.78+0.44+0.89+1.32+0.80+1.13+0.99
YearMonGlobeNHemSHemTropicUS48ArcticAust.Can.

Time Series Plots for Tropics, USA48, Canada, and Australia

Line graph displaying the UAH satellite-based temperature departures from the 1991-2020 average for the lower atmosphere, with data points from 1979 to 2026. Blue points represent individual measurements, while a red line indicates a running centered 13-month average. The linear trend shows an increase of +0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. Notable data point for September 2026 shows a temperature departure of +0.9 degrees Celsius.
Line graph showing UAH satellite-based temperature departures from the average from 1991-2020 in degrees Celsius, covering years 1979 to 2026, with a red trend line indicating a linear temperature increase of +0.21 C per decade.
Line graph showing the satellite-based temperature departures from the 1991-2020 average in Canada from 1979 to 2026, with blue data points and a red line indicating a centered 13-month average.
Graph depicting UAH satellite-based temperature departures in Australia from 1991-2020 average, showing fluctuations from 1979 to 2026 with a trend line indicating a +0.22 C increase per decade.

The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global grid point anomaly map for September 2026 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.

The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:

Lower Troposphere

Mid-Troposphere

Tropopause

Lower Stratosphere

Democratic Socialists want a Green New Deal โ€ฆ and more

The Democratic Socialists of America arenโ€™t whispering anymore. Theirย official party platformย is a blueprint to remake the country: tax the rich, cancel student debt, free healthcare including โ€œgender-affirming care,โ€ free college and medical school, a living wage, and a 32-hour workweek with full pay.

The new DSA Green New Deal keeps all of that and piles on โ€œsocial, economic, racial, regional, and gender-based justice and equality.โ€

A group of protesters holding a large banner that reads 'DOWN WITH IMPERIALISM NO WAR BUT THE CLASS WAR' and waving red flags, gathered outside a historic building.

From CFACT

By Craig Rucker

The Democratic Socialists of America arenโ€™t whispering anymore. Theirย official party platformย is a blueprint to remake the country: tax the rich, cancel student debt, free healthcare including โ€œgender-affirming care,โ€ free college and medical school, a living wage, and a 32-hour workweek with full pay.

Their big tent panders to pretty much everything โ€” except John Fetterman and traditional American values.

They vilify President Trump for denying a catastrophic climate crisis; walking away from Paris; and reviving coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power.ย 

So, the DSA promises a Green New Deal to reverse all of that โ€” one that goes well beyond what Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey proposed in 2019.

The first GND was already a budget-buster: $52 trillion to $93 trillion over 10 years, by the American Action Forumโ€™s count. AOCโ€™s then-chief of staff acknowledged it wasnโ€™t โ€œa climate thing at all.โ€ It was โ€œa how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.โ€

Ending fossil fuels and converting the grid to weather-dependent wind and solar would do exactly that โ€” and leave Americans without the fuels, fertilizers, plastics, and medicines that come from oil and gas.

Many of the same advocates also wanted โ€œcooperative and public ownershipโ€ of essential industries โ€” starting with utilities and the grid โ€” and some wanted the government to own transportation, manufacturing, and natural resources.

Washington would then subsidize the newly jobless and make sure โ€œthe publicโ€ got โ€œappropriate ownership stakes and returns on investment.โ€

The new DSA Green New Deal keeps all of that and piles on โ€œsocial, economic, racial, regional, and gender-based justice and equality.โ€

What leprechaun pot of gold pays the tab? How does an economy buried in that kind of debt help American workers and families? On those questions, they take the Fifth.

On what planet have wind, solar, communal ownership, and anti-capitalist government delivered anything but poverty and decline?

Britain and Germany now have nearly the highest household and industrial electricity prices on earth.ย They have sent millions of jobs and entire industries to China and India โ€” countries that burn coal, lean on oil and gas, and emit far more greenhouse gases than the United States, Europe, Australia, and Africa combined.

Rich UK families are already leaving for lower-tax shores. In the process, the Brits, Germans, and other Europeans have set the planet to mining metals and minerals for turbines, panels, batteries, and thousands of miles of new transmission lines that blanket the land and slaughter birds and bats.

This, they assure us, is clean, green, renewable, and sustainable.

Climate-obsessed California and New York are on the same path: theย highest continental U.S. electricity prices, lost jobs, and the same ecological wreckage at home and abroad.

Newly reinstated DSA member AOC has now reintroduced the Green New Deal for Public Housing Act with Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Delia Ramirez. The โ€œclimate crisis,โ€ said Ocasio-Cortez, has brought โ€œrecord-breaking heat waves to extreme flooding.โ€

โ€œNatural disasters are getting far worse,โ€ and โ€œhurricanes are intensifying,โ€ Sanders claimed. โ€œSafe, sustainable, resilient, affordable housing is a HUMAN RIGHT,โ€ย Ramirez insistsย โ€” especially amid our โ€œurgent climate crisis.โ€ Colorado DSA candidateย Melot Kirosย calls the GND โ€œa floor, not a ceilingโ€ and a zero-emissions grid โ€œfeasible and essential.โ€

The Housing Act would mandate all-electric apartments โ€” supposedly resilient to climate threats but chained to policies that drive power prices ever upward.

Back on the actual planet, we face no climate crisis. No Category 3-5 hurricanes hit the United States from October 2005 to August 2017. Models and press releases are not evidence. And the GND is only the opening bid.

The same DSA platform also wants to fight mass incarceration and police brutality, โ€œFree Palestine,โ€ end the U.S. war machine, demilitarize the border so workers can โ€œmigrate as they wish,โ€ and extend full voting rights to noncitizens.

Ultimately, the DSA treats almost every problem as a symptom of capitalismโ€™s alleged drive for resource extraction, excess profits, and endless growth. The more โ€œeducatedโ€ people become at Indoctrination U, the more they share those views.

A change-the-entire-economy thing? They want to change everything about the America we love. Weโ€™ve long said todayโ€™s Greens are watermelons: green on the outside, red on the inside. This platform proves it.

That these factions, ideologies, and policies already control too much of our educational system, media, boardrooms, and state and local governments is bad enough.

On September 1, after Democratic primary voters embraced multiple Democratic Socialist candidates, the House of Representatives adopted a resolution denouncing socialism โ€œin all its forms.โ€ All Republicans and eight Democrats supported the resolution; 192 Democrats voted against denouncing socialism, and two voted โ€œpresent.โ€

Give the Democrats and Democratic Socialists control of Congress and the Supreme Court, and affordability, justice, equality, and opportunity become a distant memory โ€” or a pipe dream โ€” for the middle- and working-class Americans they claim to champion.

This article originally appeared at DC Journal

Melting Alps, Ancient Crystal: Mesolithic Secrets Emerge from Switzerlandโ€™s Vanishing Glaciers

Glacier archaeologist Marcel Cornelissen describes glaciers as โ€œtreasure trovesโ€. As they melt, artifacts emerge on the surface (rather than being deeply buried), giving unique insights into the past. Finds are increasing with accelerated ice loss. Researchers are often alerted by mountaineers who spot objects, then document, stabilize, and transport them for laboratory analysis and dating.

A close-up view of crystalline ice formations on rocky terrain with majestic snow-capped mountains in the background under a partly cloudy sky.
AI generated by Grok

Switzerlandโ€™s melting glaciers are revealing ancient secrets, according to an article published on October 2, 2026, by SWI swissinfo.ch.

Glacier archaeologist Marcel Cornelissen describes glaciers as โ€œtreasure trovesโ€. As they melt, artifacts emerge on the surface (rather than being deeply buried), giving unique insights into the past. Finds are increasing with accelerated ice loss. Researchers are often alerted by mountaineers who spot objects, then document, stabilize, and transport them for laboratory analysis and dating.

Notable discoveries

  • Bronze Age weapons (including a bow and arrowheads from the Lรถtschen Pass on the Bern-Valais border)
  • Ancient animal remains (such as a cowโ€™s skull)
  • A small Roman statue
  • A rosary
  • Other items linked to Mesolithic rock crystal extraction and use

Some of these appear in an exhibition at the Glacier Garden in Lucerne. Cornelissen is involved in the โ€œBergeisโ€ project at the Uri Institute Cultures of the Alps and is especially interested in reconstructing daily life from thousands of years ago (e.g., hunting, protecting livestock, or possible conflicts).

The urgency

Glacial ice acts as a major archaeological archive that is disappearing rapidly.

Related reporting notes that about a fifth of Swiss Alpine ice has vanished in five years, with 2026 heatwaves and low winter snowfall accelerating the loss of dozens of glaciers.

Cornelissen warns that โ€œa great deal of archaeological knowledge is being lostโ€, as future analytical methods may arrive too late for much of the remaining ice.

The piece is a short (~3- minute) feature translated from German, focusing on the race to document these finds before they are gone.

Read the full story here.

A collection of various polished stones and crystals arranged on a rocky surface, featuring different shapes including triangles and circular forms in shades of gray and transparent.
AI generated by Grok

โ€œBergeisโ€ (Mountain Ice) is a research and public archaeology project at the Uri Institute Cultures of the Alps (Urner Institut Kulturen der Alpen and Institut Kulturen der Alpen), an affiliated institute of the University of Lucerne based in Altdorf, Canton Uri, Switzerland.

Focus and goals

It investigates the extraction, processing, and use of rock crystal (Bergkristall and quartz) by Mesolithic hunter- gatherer societies in the Swiss Alps (primarily Cantons Uri and Valais), roughly 8000/7000- 5800 BC. The project examines how people sourced and worked this material at high altitudes, its societal value, and the broader environmental and climatic context (including past and present glacier dynamics).

A key site is a rock- crystal extraction fissure near the Untere Stremlรผcke and Fuorcla da Strem Sut (around 2817- 2831 m), exposed by the retreating Brunnifirn glacier (Oberalpstock area).

Discovered in 2013 by a crystal hunter (โ€œStrahlerโ€), it yielded:

  • Rock- crystal tools, manufacturing waste, and knapping debris
  • Rare organic remains preserved in the ice (antler artefacts and wood fragments, the oldest ice-preserved organic finds known in the Alps at the time)

This is described as the first securely dated Mesolithic glacial rock-crystal extraction site in the Swiss Alps. The project also studies related assemblages elsewhere in Uri and Valais and includes further field surveys (in collaboration with cantonal archaeological services).

Dual aims:

  • Scientific research into alpine Mesolithic life, raw- material procurement, and the deep history of crystal hunting (โ€œStrahlenโ€), a tradition that continues in the region.
  • Public outreach: raising awareness of alpine cultural history, potential glacier/ice-patch finds, and encouraging hikers, mountaineers, crystal hunters, and locals to report discoveries to authorities.

Leadership and timeline

  • Project lead: Marcel Cornelissen, M.A. (freelance archaeologist and Junior Research Fellow at the institute, specializing in early post-glacial and alpine archaeology). He runs it on a mandate basis.
  • Official run: approximately January 2021- October 2023 (with related fieldwork, analysis, and outreach continuing; listed as 2021- 24 in some of Cornelissenโ€™s records).

Related activities and outputs

  • Excavations and surveys (e.g., 2020 work at the Stremlรผcke site).
  • Exhibitions such as โ€œBergeis- Strahlen der Steinzeitโ€ (shown at Talmuseum Ursern in Andermatt and Stockalperschloss in Brig, 2022- 2023/2025), featuring tiny rock- crystal tools, large- format photos by Valentin Luthiger, and documentation of the fieldwork team.
  • Publications (including a 2022 paper in Norwegian Archaeological Review on the glacially preserved site) and outreach materials such as flyers and brochures

The project sits under the instituteโ€™s research focus on โ€œForms of cultural inscriptionโ€ and highlights how melting glaciers both reveal and threaten this archaeological archive. It connects prehistoric alpine practices with contemporary mountain culture and climate change.

Global Warming Is Making Days Longer by Speeding Up the Atmosphere

This is a Science X Dialog piece written by the lead author of the research. It closely follows (and largely reproduces) his earlier โ€œBehind the Paperโ€ post on the Springer Nature Research Communities site. It summarizes the findings of the March 2026 paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

There is a blog post by Susmit Subhransu Satpathy (PhD student researcher at the IBS Center for Climate Physics) on the Springer Nature Research Communities site. It discusses his teamโ€™s research paper published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

A digital illustration of Earth surrounded by swirling energy patterns and flames, with arrows indicating movement toward a smaller celestial body in space.
AI generated by Grok

This is a Science X Dialog piece written by the lead author of the research. It closely follows (and largely reproduces) his earlier โ€œBehind the Paperโ€ post on the Springer Nature Research Communities site. It summarizes the findings of the March 2026 paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

Atmospheric circulation not only drives weather and climate but also carries angular momentum. Shifts in winds or mass distribution allow the atmosphere to exchange momentum with the solid Earth, slightly changing the planetโ€™s rotation rate (and thus the Abstract

Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation that regulate Earthโ€™s climate can slow its rotation by increasing the Length of Day (LOD). Using large-ensemble simulations from three global climate models under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, we find that global warming-driven changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) propagate into measurable variations in LOD. These arise from modifications in both the mass and motion components of AAM. As the climate warms, expansion of the Hadley cell, intensification of subtropical jets, and weakening of tropical trade winds enhance the motion of the AAM, while a strengthened westward pressure gradient force associated with mountain torque and weakened surface friction torque indicate a reduced efficiency of momentum exchange with the solid Earth. Together, these processes accelerate the atmosphere and slow Earthโ€™s rotation. By the late 21st century, AAM-driven LOD increases reach 10โ€“18% of the lunar tidal friction trend, highlighting anthropogenic climate changeโ€™s role in Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics., or LOD).

Previous work had projected rising Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) under warming, but the dynamical reasons were unclear. Using large- ensemble simulations from three global climate models under a high- emissions scenario, the team found a consistent picture:

  • The Hadley cell expands poleward
  • Subtropical jets intensify
  • Tropical trade winds weaken
  • Upper- level zonal winds strengthen

These well- known responses to warming systematically increase AAM. At the same time, momentum exchange between the atmosphere and solid Earth weakens (through changes in mountain and friction torques).

The result is a slightly faster -moving atmosphere and a slightly slower- rotating Earth.

By the end of the 21st century, the atmospheric contribution to LOD increase reaches about 10- 18% of the long- term lunar tidal friction trend. Although modest, the signal is systematic (externally forced by anthropogenic warming rather than internal variability) and arises from well- understood circulation changes.

The authors place this in context: tidal friction has long been the dominant long- term driver of rotational slowing, while core- mantle interactions dominate decadal- to- centennial variability. Atmospheric changes represent an additional, climate-driven component.

Climate change is reshaping the fundamental dynamical balance of the Earth system. The atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and solid Earth are tightly coupled, so changes in one can propagate into others in unexpected ways. Global warming influences Earth beyond the climate system itself.

Global map showing topography-weighted zonal pressure gradients with highlighted mountain ranges including the Rockies, Alps, Himalayas, and Andes.
The weakening of the momentum exchange between the solid Earth and atmosphere through changing mountain and friction torques. Credit: Susmit Subhransu Satpathy

There is a blog post by Susmit Subhransu Satpathy (PhD student researcher at the IBS Center for Climate Physics) on the Springer Nature Research Communities site. It discusses his teamโ€™s research paper published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

Key research findings

The paper, Anthropogenic warming- driven atmospheric circulation shifts and angular momentum increase: influence on the Earthโ€™s rotation (Satpathy, Franzke, Yuan, Maher, Park & Lee, 2026), shows that global warming alters atmospheric circulation in ways that increase Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM). This accelerates the atmosphere slightly and slows Earthโ€™s rotation, lengthening the day (increasing Length of Day, or LOD).

Using large- ensemble simulations from three climate models (CESM2- LE, ACCESS- ESM- 1.5, and MIROC6) under the high- emissions SSP3- 7.0 scenario, the researchers found:

  • Circulation changes that boost AAM (especially its motion component):
    • Poleward expansion of the Hadley cell
    • Intensification of subtropical jets
    • Weakening of tropical trade winds
    • Strengthening of upper- level zonal winds
  • Weakened momentum exchange between the atmosphere and solid Earth (via changes in mountain and surface friction torques), so the Earth does not โ€œkeep upโ€ as efficiently with the faster-moving atmosphere.

By the late 21st century, the AAM- driven LOD increase reaches about 10- 18% of the long- term lunar tidal friction trend (the dominant natural process that has been slowing Earthโ€™s rotation for billions of years). The effect is subtle but systematic and externally forced by anthropogenic warming, not just internal variability.

Broader context

Earthโ€™s rotation rate already fluctuates due to lunar tides, core- mantle interactions, post- glacial rebound, and mass redistribution (e.g., melting ice sheets increasing polar flattening and oblateness). This work isolates the atmospheric contribution as an additional climate- driven signal. Conservation of angular momentum means gains in atmospheric angular momentum are balanced by a corresponding slowing of the solid Earthโ€™s spin.

The blog emphasizes that climate change reshapes fundamental dynamical balances across the Earth system (atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and solid Earth), producing effects that extend beyond temperature, precipitation, or extremes.

Diagram illustrating the Earth's axis of rotation and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) changes, including graphs of Motion AAM anomaly, Mass AAM anomaly, Total AAM anomaly, and LOD AAM anomaly over time from 1850 to 2100, comparing different climate models.
The increasing trend of AAM with global warming. Credit: Susmit Subhransu Satpathy

Anthropogenic warming- driven atmospheric circulation shifts and angular momentum increase: influence on the Earthโ€™s rotation

Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation that regulate Earthโ€™s climate can slow its rotation by increasing the Length of Day (LOD).

Using large- ensemble simulations from three global climate models under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the authors find that global warming- driven changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) propagate into measurable variations in LOD.

These arise from modifications in both the mass and motion components of AAM.

As the climate warms, expansion of the Hadley cell, intensification of subtropical jets, and weakening of tropical trade winds enhance the motion component of AAM, while a strengthened westward pressure gradient force associated with mountain torque and weakened surface friction torque indicate reduced efficiency of momentum exchange with the solid Earth.

Together, these processes accelerate the atmosphere and slow Earthโ€™s rotation. By the late 21st century, AAM- driven LOD increases reach 10- 18% of the lunar tidal friction trend, highlighting anthropogenic climate changeโ€™s role in Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics.

Key points from the paper

  • Background: Earthโ€™s rotation rate (and thus LOD) varies due to core-mantle coupling, lunar tidal friction, post- glacial rebound, and mass redistribution (e.g., melting ice sheets increasing polar oblateness/Jโ‚‚). AAM consists of a motion term (related to zonal winds) and a mass term (related to surface pressure distribution). Conservation of angular momentum means changes in AAM are balanced by opposite changes in the solid Earthโ€™s spin.
  • Methods: Analysis of large- ensemble simulations under the high- emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario:
    • CESM2- LE (100 members)
    • ACCESS- ESM-1.5 (40 members)
    • MIROC6 (50 members)
      These allow separation of externally forced signals from internal variability. Baseline period: 1850- 2014.
  • Main results:
    • Both motion and mass components of AAM increase under warming (motion component dominates).
    • Circulation changes driving higher motion AAM include poleward Hadley cell expansion, stronger subtropical jets, weaker tropical easterlies and trade winds, and stronger upper- level equatorial westerlies (including signs of equatorial upper- tropospheric super-rotation later in the century).
    • Surface torques weaken, reducing momentum transfer from atmosphere to solid Earth.
    • Rising AAM translates linearly into increasing LOD anomalies. By late 21st century the atmospheric contribution reaches ~10- 18% of the long- term lunar tidal friction trend (~2.4 ms/century). The magnitude is comparable to effects from ice- sheet melting and oblateness changes.
    • Rough scaling: ~0.09- 0.11 ms of LOD lengthening per degree of global mean surface temperature rise.
  • Significance: The atmospheric signal is a systematic, externally forced response to anthropogenic warming. It demonstrates that climate change influences Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics beyond the better- known effects of ice melt and mass redistribution.

The full article (including figures on AAM trends, Hadley cell expansion, torque changes, and LOD projections) is freely available as open access at the link above, with a PDF download option.

Journal information: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, volume 9, Article number: 101 (2026)

DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01382-z

Published: 20 March 2026 | Open access

Authors:

Susmit Subhransu Satpathyยนห’ยฒ, Christian L. E. Franzkeยนห’ยฒ, Naiming Yuanยณห’โดห’โต, Nicola Maherโถ, Wonsun Parkยนห’ยฒ & Sun-Seon Leeยนห’โทยน Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan, Republic of Korea
ยฒ Department of Carbon Neutrality and Climate Change, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
ยณ School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
โด Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, China
โต Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China
โถ ARC Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century and Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
โท Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea

Corresponding authors: susmitsatpathy@pusan.ac.kr; christian.franzke@pusan.ac.kr

Abstract

Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation that regulate Earthโ€™s climate can slow its rotation by increasing the Length of Day (LOD). Using large-ensemble simulations from three global climate models under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, we find that global warming-driven changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) propagate into measurable variations in LOD. These arise from modifications in both the mass and motion components of AAM. As the climate warms, expansion of the Hadley cell, intensification of subtropical jets, and weakening of tropical trade winds enhance the motion of the AAM, while a strengthened westward pressure gradient force associated with mountain torque and weakened surface friction torque indicate a reduced efficiency of momentum exchange with the solid Earth. Together, these processes accelerate the atmosphere and slow Earthโ€™s rotation. By the late 21st century, AAM-driven LOD increases reach 10โ€“18% of the lunar tidal friction trend, highlighting anthropogenic climate changeโ€™s role in Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics.

Impossible, Asia Nikkei, Climate Change Canโ€™t Be Harming Indonesian Coffee Production, It Is Setting Records

A โ€œspotlightโ€ article posted by Asia Nikkei claims climate change is destroying Indonesian coffee crop, a major agricultural export for the country. Fortunately for Indonesian coffee producers and the Indonesian economy, this it flat out false.

In fact, Indonesiaโ€™s most recent production record was set in 2024, with the previous record having been set in 2021. With just two years of modest declines, Indonesiaโ€™s coffee yields increased eight of the past 10 years.

A colorful illustration discussing coffee production in Indonesia from 2000 to 2024, highlighting increases in yields and production, with a smiling farmer holding a coffee cup and a concerned character in glasses expressing disbelief about climate narratives.
AI generated by ChatGPT

From ClimateRealism

By H. Sterling Burnett

A โ€œspotlightโ€ article posted by Asia Nikkei claims climate change is destroying Indonesian coffee crop, a major agricultural export for the country. Fortunately for Indonesian coffee producers and the Indonesian economy, this it flat out false. Amid modest warming over the past century and a half, Indonesiaโ€™s coffee production and yields have increased dramatically, regularly setting new records for production.

Fathiya Dahrul, the author of the of the Asia Nikkei story, โ€œIndonesia coffee trade wilts under brunt of climate change,โ€ writes, โ€œ[i]n southern Sumatra, the cost of global warming stares Rusi Siruadi in the face as he surveys the stunted trees on his coffee farm.โ€

โ€œOn a plot of land, a little bigger than a soccer field, Siruadi expects his robusta bean crop to shrivel by nearly a third from last yearโ€™s level once harvesting is wrapped up in late September,โ€ Dahrul continues. โ€œRobusta beans, often used to manufacture instant coffee, account for 80% to 90% of the crop across Indonesia, one of the worldโ€™s top five coffee producers.

โ€œThe culprit, Siruadi told Nikkei Asia, is the kind of extreme, erratic rainfall Indonesia has seen since last year,โ€ Dahrul says. โ€œScientists attribute those weather patterns to human-induced climate change.โ€

The first clear error in this story is its author attributing a single yearโ€™s bad weather to climate change. While this one coffee producer, or even coffee growers across some or all of Indonesia, may have suffered crop losses due to weather in 2026, that, as meteorologist Anthony Watts points out in Climate at a Glance: Weather Vs. Climate, is a symptom of weather, not necessarily indicative of long-term climate change for the region. Farmers have always suffered good and bad years and even, on occasion, multiple good and bad weather years back-to-back, hurting or boosting crop production in the short-term.

To show that a yearโ€™s weather is associated with climate change, one would have to find a long-term consistent trend in the type of weather of concern. That is not what we find in Indonesia, however. Indonesia historically has experienced wet and dry monsoon seasons, and this hasnโ€™t changed in recent decades. Indonesian agriculture relies upon the monsoon. Some years are wetter than others and some dryer. But the trend over time is that the monsoons arrive and provide the moisture Indonesia needs for crop production. This has not changed.

And Indonesiaโ€™s coffee production trend since 2000 shows substantial growth rather than a decline. Data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that Indonesiaโ€™s coffee production and yields have, if anything, benefitted from modestly warmer temperatures, more consistent precipitation, and carbon dioxide fertilization. Specifically, from 2000 through 2024, the last year for which Indonesia has reported agricultural data, supposedly the hottest decades on record:

  • Indonesiaโ€™s coffee yields increased by approximately 45 percent; and
  • Indonesiaโ€™s coffee production grew by nearly 46 percent. (See the figure, below)
Line graph showing the trend of Indonesia's green coffee yield and production from 2000 to 2024. The blue line represents yield, while the red line represents production, with both showing fluctuations and an overall upward trend.

In fact, Indonesiaโ€™s most recent production record was set in 2024, with the previous record having been set in 2021. With just two years of modest declines, Indonesiaโ€™s coffee yields increased eight of the past 10 years. In short, whatever the coffee growers interviewed by Asia Nikkei have experienced and may believe, there is no evidence in the data that climate change is causing coffee to โ€œwilt,โ€ or is harming coffee production in general. Anecdotal evidence from interviews with a few growers concerning a single yearโ€™s crop output canโ€™t put to lie the long-term data.

Had the mainstream media not been falsely blaming climate change for nearly every bad weather event over the past 30 years, I would wager that if those same farmers had been interviewed during a year of high heat and or erratic rainfall in 1994, for example, they would not have blamed climate change for any resultant crop failures. Rather, they likely would have said it was the vagaries of the weather, representing ups and downs that they had known throughout their years of farming.

In the end, the data suggests that Indonesiaโ€™s coffee growers have been benefitting from modest climate change, not suffering. Somehow Asia Nikkei, failed to get the memo. Its writers and fact checkers need to wake up to the existence of real-world long-term data before penning and allowing false stories to be posted about a climate disaster that isnโ€™t in evidence.

Climate Alliance featured โ€œaffordabilityโ€ law is anti-affordability

The Climate Alliance coalition of Democrat Governors recently featured a new Illinois โ€œaffordabilityโ€ law which is actually the opposite. This is a good example of the Allianceโ€™s anti- affordability policies.

Keep in mind that the idea of โ€œaffordabilityโ€ refers to alleviating todayโ€™s escalating energy costs, especially electricity bills. In stark contrast, this bill is claimed to save electricity users a lot of money over the next 20 years or so, but it only does so at great expense today. So, it is an anti-affordability law.

A woman in a bright green blazer holds her hand up in a stop gesture, facing a stack of cash on a table.
Business woman refusing to take bribe. Female at desk and money on table.

From CFACT

By David Wojick

The Climate Alliance coalition of Democrat Governors recently featured a new Illinois โ€œaffordabilityโ€ law which is actually the opposite. This is a good example of the Allianceโ€™s anti- affordability policies.

The reported and claimed name of this new law is the โ€œClean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (CRGA)โ€. That is what the Governorโ€™s press release and news reports call it. The official name however is hilarious. The bill is here and is clearly labeled the โ€œSWIMMING FACILITY COLD SPAโ€ law.

Apparently, the Democrat controlled Legislature took a rule-avoiding shortcut. They took this little swimming pool bill, which was already well along, stripped it of its text and added a monster 1,200-page energy bill, then quickly passed the critter.

In any case, this is not an affordability law โ€” quite the contrary โ€” and this speaks to the Climate Allianceโ€™s entire policy posture.

Keep in mind that the idea of โ€œaffordabilityโ€ refers to alleviating todayโ€™s escalating energy costs, especially electricity bills. In stark contrast, this bill is claimed to save electricity users a lot of money over the next 20 years or so, but it only does so at great expense today. So, it is an anti- affordability law.

Here is how the Governorโ€™s press release puts it:

โ€œCRGA will lower costs by driving the development of new energy resources, enacting new regulatory powers to support consumers, and creating and enhancing consumer cost-saving programs. The Illinois Power Agency (IPA) found that CRGAโ€™s critical measures are expected to save Illinois energy customers $13.4 billion over the next two decades.โ€

These supposedly lower future costs come at the usual huge present day green costs. The biggest cost drivers are lots of renewables, batteries, and efficiency programs, all paid for by suffering ratepayers.

There is also lots of electrification and EV stuff, plus โ€œenvironmental justice,โ€ and so on โ€” the whole big green ball of money.

They do lift the ban on nuclear power, which is good news since Illinois used to be a leader on this. But it saves nobody anything in the near future.

Here is the โ€œaffordabilityโ€ fantasy made clear: โ€œWeโ€™re making it easier to develop renewable energy,โ€ bill sponsor Sen. Bill Cunningham, D-Chicago, said at the signing ceremony. โ€œWeโ€™re going to deploy battery storage; weโ€™re lifting the nuclear moratorium. Thatโ€™s all going to bring more supply onto the grid, and that will help hold the line on our electrical bills.โ€

Spending untold billions of dollars on renewables, batteries, and new nukes (if ever) is not going to โ€œhold the lineโ€ on electrical bills.

Batteries in particular are incredibly expensive to buy and provide no new supply. They just make money for their owners by buying low off peak and selling high on peak. In fact, they consume energy in this expensive arbitrage process.

A law like this that is certain to drive up electricity bills can best be described as anti- affordability. It is just more hugely expensive energy transition nonsense.

The Climate Alliance boasts that they have over 4,000 laws, executive orders, and related policy documents from their member States in their policy database.

These are basically the โ€œblue states,โ€ and if anti-affordability Illinois CRGA is representative of these over 4,000 mandates, then it is no wonder these stateโ€™s electricity prices are far greater than in the other states. The so- called energy transition is driving up peopleโ€™s bills.

People in blue states suffering from exorbitant electric bills need look no further than the U.S. Climate Coalition to see what is hitting them. Anti- affordability is the policy.

Three Years of Drought That Ended an Empire: How Climate Crushed Hattusa

The Hittites were an ancient Indo- European people who established a major Bronze Age civilization and empire in Anatolia (modern- day Tรผrkiye) from roughly the 17th to the early 12th century BCE. They were one of the great powers of the Late Bronze Age Near East, rivaling Egypt, Mitanni, Babylon, and Assyria. Their language is the oldest attested Indo- European language.

Hattusa (also spelled Hattuลกa, Hattusas, or Hattusha; Turkish: HattuลŸaลŸ) was the capital of the Hittite Empire during the Late Bronze Age. Its extensive ruins lie near the modern village of BoฤŸazkale (formerly BoฤŸazkรถy) in ร‡orum Province, north- central Tรผrkiye, about 150- 210 km east of Ankara, within the great bend of the Kฤฑzฤฑlฤฑrmak River (ancient Marashantiya/Halys).

A dramatic landscape featuring ancient stone ruins and a large hilltop structure under a cloudy sky, with cracked earth and sparse vegetation in the foreground.
AI generated by Grok

The Hittites were an ancient Indo- European people who established a major Bronze Age civilization and empire in Anatolia (modern- day Tรผrkiye) from roughly the 17th to the early 12th century BCE. They were one of the great powers of the Late Bronze Age Near East, rivaling Egypt, Mitanni, Babylon, and Assyria. Their language is the oldest attested Indo- European language.

They did not call themselves โ€œHittites.โ€ That name comes from the biblical Hebrew term for the land of Hatti (central Anatolia).

In their own records they referred to their realm as the Land of Hatti. They absorbed and blended with earlier local populations, especially the non- Indo- European Hattians (whose language and many cultural elements they adopted), as well as Luwians and Hurrians.

Origins and Early History

Speakers of an Indo- European language (related to later languages such as English, Greek, and Sanskrit) appear to have entered Anatolia by the early 2nd millennium BCE, possibly from regions north of the Black Sea. Early polities included the kingdom of Kussara and the city of Kanesh/Neลกa (modern Kรผltepe), an important Assyrian trading colony site.

The Hittite state proper began around 1650 BCE when Hattusili I (or Labarna) made Hattusa (modern BoฤŸazkale/BoฤŸazkรถy, about 150- 200 km east of Ankara) the capital. The city, set in a rugged, defensible highland basin, became the political, religious, and administrative heart of the kingdom for centuries.

Scholars conventionally divide Hittite history into:

  • Old Kingdom (c. 1650- 1500/1400 BCE)
  • A poorly documented Middle Kingdom or interregnum
  • New Kingdom / Empire (c. 1400- c. 1180 BCE)

The Old Kingdom

Early kings expanded control across central Anatolia and into northern Syria. Notable rulers include:

  • Hattusili I (c. 1650- 1620 BCE): Consolidated power and established Hattusa.
  • Mursili I (c. 1620- 1590 BCE): Conducted a dramatic raid down the Euphrates that sacked Babylon around 1595 BCE, ending the Amorite dynasty there. The Hittites could not hold distant Mesopotamian territories.

Dynastic struggles and weak succession followed. King Telipinu issued an edict attempting to regulate royal succession and stabilize the state.

The Empire Period (New Kingdom)

The empire reached its height in the 14th-13th centuries BCE. Key rulers:

  • Suppiluliuma I (c. 1344-1322 BCE): The greatest Hittite conqueror. He destroyed the Mitanni kingdom, established firm control over northern Syria, and placed vassal kings (including his own sons) in key cities such as Carchemish and Aleppo. The empire then stretched across most of Anatolia, northern Syria, and parts of Upper Mesopotamia.
  • Muwatalli II (c. 1295-1272 BCE): Fought the famous Battle of Kadesh (c. 1274 BCE) against the Egyptian pharaoh Ramesses II. One of the largest chariot battles in history, it ended in a tactical stalemate; both sides claimed victory.
  • Hattusili III (c. 1267-1237 BCE): Negotiated the worldโ€™s oldest known surviving international peace treaty with Egypt (c. 1259 BCE). The parity treaty established mutual non-aggression, defensive alliance, and extradition provisions; copies survive in both Hittite and Egyptian versions. A dynastic marriage followed.

Later kings faced growing pressure from Assyria, internal rivals, the Kaska tribes to the north, and western Anatolian states.

Society, Culture, and Achievements

  • Language and Writing: Hittite (Nesite) was written in cuneiform on clay tablets. Archives at Hattusa contain tens of thousands of tablets covering laws, treaties, rituals, myths, correspondence, and administration, many in multiple languages (Hittite, Akkadian, Hurrian, Hattic, Luwian). Hieroglyphic Luwian was also used, especially on monuments. Bedล™ich Hroznรฝ deciphered Hittite in 1915, proving it Indo- European.
  • Law and Administration: A sophisticated legal code existed. Kings ruled as divine representatives but relied heavily on treaties with vassals, a system of oaths, and delegated authority suited to Anatoliaโ€™s fragmented geography.
  • Military: Famous for three- man chariots and effective use of iron technology (though widespread iron use came later). They maintained professional armies and extensive fortifications.
  • Religion: Highly polytheistic and inclusive, โ€œthe Land of a Thousand Godsโ€. They readily incorporated deities of conquered or neighboring peoples (Hattian, Hurrian, Mesopotamian). Major gods included the Storm God of Hatti (Tarhunt and or Teshub) and the Sun Goddess of Arinna. The capital contained numerous temples; the king performed important ritual roles. Rock sanctuaries such as Yazฤฑlฤฑkaya feature elaborate processions of deities.
  • Architecture and Art: Monumental stone walls, gates (Lion Gate, Sphinx Gate), temples, and rock reliefs. Hattusa was a large, planned city with upper and lower sections, reservoirs, and sophisticated defenses.

Decline and Collapse

Around 1200-1180 BCE the empire disintegrated as part of the broader Late Bronze Age collapse. Hattusa was largely abandoned (and later burned); the royal archives cease. Contributing factors appear to have included:

  • Prolonged severe drought (tree- ring evidence points to multi- year droughts around 1198-1196 BCE that devastated grain harvests)
  • Internal dynastic strife and loss of central control
  • Attacks by the Kaska and other groups
  • Pressure from migrating peoples (including those associated with the โ€œSea Peoplesโ€ in Egyptian records)
  • Economic disruption and plague

The Hittite language and cuneiform tradition disappeared from central Anatolia. Successor โ€œNeo- Hittiteโ€ (or Syro- Hittite) states continued in southeastern Anatolia and northern Syria (e.g., Carchemish) into the Iron Age until conquered by the Assyrians in the 8th- 7th centuries BCE. Biblical references to Hittites generally refer to these later groups or to residual populations in Canaan.

Legacy and Rediscovery

Forgotten for nearly three millennia except for brief biblical mentions, the Hittites were rediscovered through archaeology in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Excavations at Hattusa (begun systematically by German teams in 1906 under Hugo Winckler and continuing today) revealed the capitalโ€™s scale and the vast tablet archives. The site is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

The Hittites demonstrated sophisticated diplomacy, legal innovation, multi-ethnic administration, and military power in a challenging highland environment. Their peace treaty with Egypt remains one of the earliest examples of formal international diplomacy, and their Indo- European language provides crucial evidence for historical linguistics.

Two carved stone bear sculptures flank an ancient pathway, surrounded by a rocky landscape and blue sky.
The Lion Gate at Hattusa, the capital of the Hittite Empire.ย 
Lion Gate at Hattusa – World History Encyclopedia

Hattusa (also spelled Hattuลกa, Hattusas, or Hattusha; Turkish: HattuลŸaลŸ) was the capital of the Hittite Empire during the Late Bronze Age. Its extensive ruins lie near the modern village of BoฤŸazkale (formerly BoฤŸazkรถy) in ร‡orum Province, north- central Tรผrkiye, about 150- 210 km east of Ankara, within the great bend of the Kฤฑzฤฑlฤฑrmak River (ancient Marashantiya/Halys).

It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site (inscribed 1986) recognized for its urban organization, monumental fortifications, temples, royal residences, sculptured gates, and the nearby Yazฤฑlฤฑkaya rock sanctuary.

Historical Overview

Settlement at the site dates back to the Chalcolithic period (as early as the 6th millennium BCE), with continuous occupation through the Bronze Age. In the early 2nd millennium BCE, it was a Hattian town (called Hattush). Around the mid- 18th century BCE, the Hittite king Anitta of Kussara conquered and destroyed it, placing a curse on the site.

It was reoccupied and became the permanent capital around 1650 BCE under Hattusili I (who took his throne name meaning โ€œman of Hattusaโ€), shifting the center of power from earlier cities such as Neลกa and Kanesh. It remained the main political, administrative, and religious capital for most of the empireโ€™s history (with temporary relocations, such as under Muwatalli II to Tarhuntassa and earlier under Tudhaliya III to Samuha).

At its peak in the 14th-13th centuries BCE (especially under Suppiluliuma I and later kings), the city covered roughly 1.8 kmยฒ (about 440 acres or 180 hectares). Estimates of population range up to 40,000-50,000. It consisted of:

  • An inner and lower city (c. 0.8 kmยฒ) with the royal citadel, major temples, and administrative buildings.
  • An outer and upper city with additional temples, residences, and monumental gates.

The city was gradually abandoned around 1200-1180 BCE during the Late Bronze Age collapse, as the Hittite Empire disintegrated. Evidence points to a methodical evacuation by the royal administration and elites rather than a sudden violent conquest; the city was later burned. Contributing factors included severe multi- year droughts (tree- ring data indicate extreme dryness around 1198-1196 BCE), famine, internal instability, and external pressures. Sparse post- Hittite settlement followed.

Layout and Major Features

Hattusa occupied a rugged, elevated plateau (around 1,100 m) with natural defenses of steep ridges and valleys. Key elements include:

  • Fortifications: Massive double walls (casemate construction) totaling 6- 8 km in length, following the terrain in a zigzag pattern. Built or expanded especially under Suppiluliuma I (c. 1344- 1322 BCE). Sections reached 8 m or more in height. A reconstructed stretch of mud- brick wall (using traditional materials) helps visualize the original appearance.
  • Monumental Gates:
    • Lion Gate (southwest): Famous pair of large stone lions (or lion-sphinxes) carved in high relief, facing outward as guardians.
    • Kingโ€™s Gate (east): Features a warrior- God relief (originally interpreted as a king; now seen as a deity, possibly the war god).
    • Sphinx Gate (south, on the Yerkapฤฑ rampart): Originally had four sphinxes (some now in museums; replicas on site).
    • Yerkapฤฑ (โ€œEarth Gateโ€): An artificial embankment with a long (c. 70- 71 m) stone-lined postern tunnel that visitors can still walk through.
  • Bรผyรผkkale (โ€œGreat Fortressโ€): The royal citadel and palace complex on the highest peak, containing administrative buildings, archives, and residential quarters of the king.
  • Great Temple (Temple 1) in the Lower City: The largest known Hittite temple complex (roughly 65 ร— 42 m or more, covering thousands of square meters). Dedicated primarily to the Storm God of Hatti and the Sun Goddess of Arinna. It included storage magazines with enormous pithoi (storage jars). A notable large green stone (possibly a cult object or base) is associated with the temple area.
  • Upper City temples: Multiple additional temples (at least four major ones) arranged around courtyards.
  • Yazฤฑlฤฑkaya: An open- air rock sanctuary about 1- 2 km northeast of the main city. It features elaborate processional reliefs of Hittite (and Hurrian- influenced) deities, kings, and mythological scenes carved into natural rock chambers. It likely served major religious ceremonies.

Other features include water reservoirs, workshops, residential areas, and outlying fortresses (e.g., KayalฤฑboฤŸaz).

Archives and Discoveries

Excavations have yielded more than 30,000 cuneiform clay tablets and fragments (the BoฤŸazkรถy Archive). These form the primary source for Hittite history, law, diplomacy (including the Egyptian peace treaty after Kadesh), religion, mythology, and administration. Tablets appear in Hittite, Akkadian, Hurrian, Hattic, Luwian, and other languages. Recent finds include a previously unknown Indo-European language linked to the region of Kalaลกma.

Archaeology and Modern Site

French explorer Charles Texier first drew attention to the ruins in 1834. Systematic excavations began in 1906 under the German Oriental Society (Hugo Winckler) and have continued, primarily under the German Archaeological Institute (currently directed by Andreas Schachner). Work is ongoing (reaching the 120th season in recent years) and involves multidisciplinary teams. The site remains an active dig and open- air museum.

Visitors can explore the extensive ruins, reconstructed wall sections, gates, temples, and Yazฤฑlฤฑkaya. The surrounding landscape of rocky hills and valleys still conveys the dramatic setting chosen by the Hittites for their highland capital.

Hattusa stands as the best-preserved and most informative capital of a major Late Bronze Age Near Eastern empire, providing unique insight into Hittite urbanism, religion, and statecraft.

A view of a reconstructed ancient fortress with tall walls and crenellations, set against a backdrop of rolling green hills and blue skies.
The city walls of Hattusa. Photo: Wikimedia
Hattusha’s Timeless Beauty on World Hittite Day | Anatolian Archaeology

Hattusa (near modern BoฤŸazkale in ร‡orum Province, north- central Tรผrkiye) sits on the high central Anatolian plateau at roughly 1,000- 1,250 meters elevation. Its climate is continental and semi- arid, both in the present day and, with some variations, during the Hittite period (c. 1650- 1180 BCE).

Modern Climate

Central Anatolia experiences a classic continental climate influenced by surrounding mountain ranges (Pontus to the north, Taurus to the south):

  • Hot, dry summers: Daytime highs often reach 30- 31ยฐC in July- August, with very little rainfall (August averages around 10 mm).
  • Cold winters: January daytime averages around 3ยฐC, with nights frequently dropping to โ€“5ยฐC or lower; snow is common and can persist on higher ground for weeks.
  • Precipitation: Annual totals are relatively low, typically 550- 600 mm, concentrated in winter and spring (highest in December, around 80 mm). Summers are the driest period.
  • Seasonal pattern: Short, vibrant springs with wildflowers; crisp, clear autumns; limited possibilities for extensive artificial irrigation due to the terrain and water sources.

Average annual temperatures are around 11ยฐC overall. The landscape is steppe- like with limited forest cover today, though pollen and other evidence suggest denser woodlands existed in earlier periods before human impact (including Hittite- era deforestation for construction, fuel, and agriculture).

These conditions support one main annual harvest in good years, primarily of grains, making the region vulnerable to rainfall variability.

Ancient Climate and Impacts on the Hittites

Paleoclimate data (especially pollen analyses) indicate that overall climatic conditions in central Anatolia have remained broadly similar for the last ~12,000 years since the end of the last Ice Age, continental and semi- arid, with limited rainfall. However, there were significant short- term fluctuations.

The Hittite core territory around Hattusa depended heavily on rain- fed agriculture (wheat, barley) and animal husbandry. The empire developed resilience strategies, including grain storage, taxation systems, and redistribution from more productive areas, which allowed it to survive ordinary single- year droughts (which occurred regularly).

Key climate impact โ€” the severe multi-year drought of c. 1198โ€“1196 BCE:

A landmark 2023 study published in Nature analyzed tree- ring widths and stable carbon isotope (ฮดยนยณC) records from ancient juniper trees recovered at Gordion (about 230 km west of Hattusa, still within the broader central Anatolian climate zone). These trees provide an annually resolved dryness record spanning centuries.

  • The data show a general shift toward drier conditions from the later 13th into the early 12th century BCE.
  • The standout event was an unusually severe, continuous three-year drought approximately 1198- 1196 BCE (ยฑ3 years). This ranks as one of the driest (or the driest) multi-year intervals between 1400 and 1000 BCE.
  • Narrow tree rings indicate the trees were severely stressed by lack of water; isotope data independently confirm the extreme dryness.

Consequences for Hattusa and the empire:

  • Near- complete crop failure for three consecutive years would have exhausted grain stores (normally sufficient for one bad year).
  • Widespread famine, collapse of the agricultural tax base, inability to feed the large standing army, and social unrest.
  • Hattusa and other key sites show evidence of empty grain depots around this time.
  • Textual references from the late Hittite period and neighboring regions (e.g., Ugarit) mention famine and grain shortages.
  • The landlocked nature of the Hittite heartland limited options for importing food on a large scale.
  • Combined with existing stresses (dynastic conflicts, external pressures from groups such as the Kaska, possible disease, and broader Late Bronze Age disruptions), the drought is widely viewed as a major tipping point that overwhelmed the stateโ€™s resilience. Hattusa was methodically abandoned by the royal administration and elites around 1180 BCE (or shortly after), with later burning of the emptied city.

Scholars emphasize that climate was not the sole cause of the empireโ€™s collapse, it interacted with political, economic, military, and social factors in a โ€œperfect storm.โ€

Single- year droughts were manageable; three consecutive extreme years were not.

This event provides one of the most precisely dated links between climate stress and the fall of a major ancient Near Eastern power.

In summary, Hattusaโ€™s semi- arid highland environment shaped Hittite agriculture, urban planning (including water management features), and ultimately contributed decisively to the empireโ€™s end through a rare, prolonged drought at a critical historical moment.

Ancient Seas Reveal Earthโ€™s Poles Went Wandering Four Times in 320 Million Years

A new study in Science (published around early October 2026) shows that analysis of ancient continental flooding patterns reveals multiple episodes of relatively rapid โ€œtrue polar wanderโ€ (TPW) over the past 320 million years.

True polar wander (TPW), when the solid outer Earth (crust and mantle) shifts relative to the planetโ€™s spin axis, is hard to detect reliably with standard paleomagnetic methods. Domeier et al. used an independent approach based on reconstructions of ancient sea level as a proxy.

Illustration of the Earth showing its poles moving over 320 million years, with labels 'Paleonorth' and 'Paleosouth', surrounded by vegetation and dinosaurs.
AI generated by Grok

A new study in Science (published around early October 2026) shows that analysis of ancient continental flooding patterns reveals multiple episodes of relatively rapid โ€œtrue polar wanderโ€ (TPW) over the past 320 million years.

True polar wander occurs when the solid outer Earth (crust and mantle) reorients relative to the planetโ€™s spin axis (while the core and climate belts stay more fixed to that axis). This happens as Earth redistributes mass (e.g., via tectonic or mantle processes) to keep its rotation stable. It is distinct from magnetic pole reversals or ordinary plate tectonics.

Today, TPW occurs at roughly 10 cm per year (partly linked to ice- sheet melting), faster than average plate motion, but its past speed and frequency have been debated due to conflicting paleomagnetic data.

Rapid TPW shifts the solid Earth relative to the equatorial bulge created by rotation. This produces a distinctive โ€œquadrupolarโ€ (beachball or four- leaf- clover) pattern of relative sea- level change: two opposing quarters of the globe experience flooding while the other two become more exposed. The water itself stays put; continents effectively move through the bulge. This signature is not produced by other common processes.

Lead author Mathew Domeier (University of Osloโ€™s Centre for Planetary Habitability) and colleagues examined continental flooding reconstructions at 10- million- year intervals over the last 320 million years, combined with statistical modeling. They identified multiple robust quadrupolar patterns consistent with rapid TPW (rates exceeding roughly 0.6ยฐ per million years, faster than most tectonic plates).

Four intervals show strong signals:

  • Early Jurassic (~200- 190 million years ago)
  • Late Jurassic- Early Cretaceous (~150- 140 million years ago; one of the strongest)
  • Mid-Cretaceous (~100- 90 million years ago)
  • Oligocene- Miocene (~30- 20 million years ago; more debated or weaker)

These broadly align with some earlier paleomagnetic and plate- motion suggestions of rapid TPW, especially in the Jurassic and Cretaceous (Age of Dinosaurs). The study finds little evidence for rapid TPW through most of the Cenozoic and does not support the idea that TPW was the main driver of Pangeaโ€™s rapid northward motion in the late Carboniferous- Permian.

The findings challenge views that TPW has been negligible or always slow on geological timescales. Over millions of years, even these โ€œrapidโ€ shifts can move continents across climate zones (with less relative motion between them), influence sea- level patterns, and potentially affect climate, the biosphere, and other Earth- system processes. Researchers emphasize treating TPW as an episodic control rather than a constant background effect.

In short, ancient sea- level maps act as an independent โ€œfingerprintโ€ confirming that Earthโ€™s geographic poles have wandered more dynamically, and episodically, than some prior models assumed.

Diagram showing regions of regression and transgression related to Earth's geoid, spin axis, and equatorial bulge.
Patterns of sea level change induced by TPW. Credit: Science (2026). DOI: 10.1126/science. aec8423

Quadrupolar sea level fluctuations reveal episodes of rapid polar wander

True polar wander (TPW), when the solid outer Earth (crust and mantle) shifts relative to the planetโ€™s spin axis, is hard to detect reliably with standard paleomagnetic methods. Domeier et al. used an independent approach based on reconstructions of ancient sea level as a proxy.

They identified a robust quadrupolar (degree- 2, order- 1 spherical harmonic, Y21Y_{21}) pattern of global sea- level fluctuations caused by relative changes in centrifugal potential during rapid TPW. This shows that couplings among Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics, mantle processes, and surface environments can be highly episodic.

True polar wander (TPW) is occurring today at ~10 cm/year, faster than the average rate of differential plate motion. It has been unclear whether this rate is only transient and negligible on geological timescales or whether Earth has experienced protracted rapid TPW lasting millions of years. Paleomagnetic data have suggested fast TPW episodes, but the limitations of that record have prevented definitive conclusions.

Rapid TPW should produce predictable global sea- level fluctuations tied to changes in centrifugal potential. The authors tested this prediction using continental flooding reconstructions and found multiple robust quadrupolar patterns since 320 million years ago. This confirms that protracted rapid TPW has occurred on Earth.

Key findings (from the paper and supporting materials)

  • Analysis of continental flooding maps at 10- Myr intervals, combined with statistical modeling, revealed significant Y21Y_{21} (quadrupolar and or tesseral) signals.
  • Four main episodes with rates โ‰ฅ ~0.6ยฐ per million years (a conservative lower bound inferred from forward modeling of viscoelastic Earth responses):
    • ~200- 190 Ma (Early Jurassic)
    • ~150- 140 Ma (Late Jurassic- Early Cretaceous; one of the strongest)
    • ~100- 90 Ma (mid- Cretaceous)
    • ~30- 20 Ma (Oligocene- Miocene)
  • These signals are robust even after tests for regional confounding effects.
  • Little evidence for rapid TPW through most of the Cenozoic.
  • No significant support for the hypothesis that rapid northward motion of Pangea in the late Carboniferous- Permian was driven primarily by TPW.
  • The results broadly corroborate some earlier paleomagnetic and plate- motion studies while providing an independent test that avoids many of their limitations.

Implications

The work refutes the view that TPW has been negligible or persistently slow on geological timescales. It highlights TPW as an episodic control on sea- level change and, potentially, other global environmental and biological processes (e.g., by moving continents across climate belts while relative plate positions change less).

Data and codes are available on Zenodo (version linked in the supplementary materials). The full paper is behind the Science paywall; the abstract, editorโ€™s summary, and supplementary materials (including methods details on the Y21Y_{21}forward model and rate bounds) are the primary publicly extractable content. Secondary coverage in outlets such as New Scientist, Scientific American, and AAAS summaries expands on the environmental context.

Journal information: Science, Vol. 394, Issue 6819, pp. 87- 90 (1 October 2026)

DOI: 10.1126/science.aec8423

Authors: Mathew Domeier, Leandro C. Gallo, Chloรฉ M. Marcilly and Trond H. Torsvikย 

Abstract

True polar wander (TPW) is presently occurring at a rate of ~10 centimeters per year, exceeding the mean rate of differential plate motion. Whether this rate is transient and negligible on geological timescales or whether Earth has experienced rapid TPW lasting millions of years is unclear. Paleomagnetic evidence has been used to propose fast episodes of TPW, but limitations of the paleomagnetic record have precluded definitive results. Rapid TPW will induce global sea level fluctuations associated with relative changes in centrifugal potential, offering an independent test. We evaluated this prediction using continental flooding reconstructions and identified multiple robust quadrupolar patterns since 320 million years ago, confirming that protracted rapid TPW has occurred on Earth and that couplings among Earthโ€™s rotational dynamics, mantle processes, and surface environments can be strongly episodic.

โ€œBig Oil Is the New Big Tobaccoโ€ (Remembering the 2012 La Jolla Legal Plan)

They said what they were doing. The fossil-fuel industry, they argued, had copied the tobacco companiesโ€™ old trick of manufacturing doubt.

My question is: What is the โ€˜cancerโ€™ of climate change that we need to focus on?โ€

A barrel of oil, a ton of coal, and a thousand cubic feet of natural gas are the inputs of modern life. They heat the house in Sheboygan in January. They move us from place to place.

An illustrated infographic comparing big oil to the tobacco industry, titled 'Big Oil is the New Big Tobacco' with references to legal actions against fossil fuel companies, including strategies like 'deceive,' 'delay,' and 'litigate.'

From Master Resource

By Stephen Heins

โ€œLetโ€™s be clear: the frequent comparison of the fossil fuel and tobacco industries is nonsense. Fossil fuels are a valuable energy source that has done yeomen service for humankind.โ€ โ€“ James Hansen (below)

At the time, this environmental workshop was not secret. That is the first thing worth saying about the June 2012 meeting at the Martin Johnson House, on the grounds of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla.

On June 14 and 15, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Climate Accountability Institute brought together about two dozen scientists, lawyers, historians, and public-opinion hands. The workshop was conceived by Naomi Oreskes, then at the University of Californiaโ€“San Diego; Peter C. Frumhoff and Angela Ledford Anderson of the Union of Concerned Scientists; Richard Heede of the Climate Accountability Institute; and Lewis M. Branscomb.  Seth Shulman of UCS wrote the summary. In October 2012 they published it under a title that did not bother with code: Establishing Accountability for Climate Change Damages: Lessons from Tobacco Control.

They said what they were doing. The fossil-fuel industry, they argued, had copied the tobacco companiesโ€™ old trick of manufacturing doubt. The remedy, they proposed, was to copy the tobacco control campaign in return: find internal documents, build a public story of knowing deception, attach particular damages to particular companies, and take the fight into court.

Oreskes put the assignment in one sentence that still reads like a brief. โ€œWhen I talk to my students I always say, tobacco causes lung cancer, esophageal cancer, mouth cancer. My question is: What is the โ€˜cancerโ€™ of climate change that we need to focus on?โ€

That was the agreed propaganda. Not a slur. A plan, written down.

The reportโ€™s own highlights are plain. A breakthrough against tobacco came when internal documents showed the industry had misled the public. Similar documents, the group said, โ€œmightโ€ sit in the vaults of fossil-fuel companies and their trade associations. Any corporate talk about climate could certainly be used against them.

They discussed how a forthcoming โ€œcarbon majorsโ€ analysis could let advocates attribute sea-level rise and other changes to named producers. But, a compelling public narrative was still missing, and litigation, science, and advocacy should reinforce one another.

Stanton Glantz, a veteran of the tobacco document wars, was in the room. So was Sharon Eubanks, who had led the Justice Departmentโ€™s racketeering case against the cigarette makers. So were trial lawyers and legal scholars, including Mary Christina Wood. The point was not a seminar. The point was they were looking for a transferable methodology to demonize energy.

However, this method had a hole in it the size of a nuclear power plant, and the hole is still there.

A cigarette is a product that harms the person who buys it, sold by companies that spent years denying the harm their own scientists had measured. A barrel of oil, a ton of coal, and a thousand cubic feet of natural gas are the inputs of modern life. They heat the house in Sheboygan in January. They move us from place to place. They move the grain. They make the fertilizer, the steel, the plastic in the hospital equipment. James Hansen, father of the alarm, put the mischaracterization in its place:

Letโ€™s be clear: the frequent comparison of the fossil fuel and tobacco industries is nonsense. Fossil fuels are a valuable energy source that has done yeomen service for humankind.

Treating the seller of that energy as the legal twin of the seller of cigarettes required a story that ignored the difference. The La Jolla group set out to build that story before the attribution paper even existed. Heedeโ€™s carbon-majors work came after the meeting that had already decided it would be useful.

What followed tracked the actual memo. The PR came first.

InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times, with Columbia Journalism School, published the 2015 investigations that became #ExxonKnew. Rockefeller family philanthropies helped fund the work. New Yorkโ€™s attorney general opened an investigation of the kind the workshop had sketched.

State and city lawsuits followed, many of them filed by the same small circle of firms, pleading public nuisance and consumer fraud, and seeking money for sea walls and adaptation. The Center for Climate Integrity and allied groups kept the public script running.

Oreskes stayed on the case, later co-authoring the 2023 Science paper on Exxonโ€™s old internal projections. Frumhoff and UCS stayed in the briefing business. Heedeโ€™s producer-by-producer accounting became a standard exhibit. The โ€œcancerโ€ they settled on was not one disease. It was every flood, fire, and heat wave that could be passed through an attribution study and handed to a plaintiff.

That is the current green propaganda, and it has chief proponents rather than a single author.

The legal wing is the plaintiffsโ€™ bar that lives on these cases, backed by the Center for Climate Integrity and by funders who have been open about wanting industry documents and industry money. The scientific wing is attribution research put to work as exhibit A, with Oreskes as the historian of the indictment.

The advocacy wing runs from the Union of Concerned Scientists through 350.org and the larger climate NGOs, which still frame the problem as a conspiracy of sellers rather than a physics-and-engineering problem of supply. The media wing, led for years by the New York Times, the Guardian, and the specialty climate outlets, treats the La Jolla theory as settled background. The political wing is the attorney general or the city council that files, then poses.

The script has been updated, not replaced. Where La Jolla said โ€œfind the documents,โ€ the update says โ€œthey knew.โ€ Where La Jolla asked for a cancer, the update supplies a weekly one: this hurricane, this wildfire, this heat dome, with a percentage attached.

Where La Jolla wanted courts to do what legislatures would not, the update keeps filing after federal judges have thrown cases out, and keeps hoping a state jury will do the regulating. The tobacco line is still the prestige analogy. It still does the work of making a complicated energy system sound like a pack of Marlboros.

What the script leaves out is the part a Midwest reader notices first. It leaves out that the same fuels under indictment are why infant mortality fell and why a Wisconsin winter is survivable. It leaves out that the United States has cut emissions while growing, largely by swapping gas for coal and by not shutting the nuclear plants that still run.

It leaves out that China builds coal plants on a scale that makes a San Francisco lawsuit look like a press release. It leaves out the woman in a kitchen in Lagos or rural India whose โ€œtransitionโ€ is still a wood fire and a bad lung. And it leaves out the price of the remedy on offer: intermittent power, higher bills, and a planning system that treats reliability as a moral failure.

La Jolla was candid about means. The current campaign is candid about villains. Neither has been candid about the product. Energy is not tobacco. A strategy that needs them to be the same thing is a strategy for the courtroom and the headline, not for the energy grid.

The 36 pages from October 2012 are still the best field guide to what followed. Compare them against the lawsuits, the attribution briefs, and the evening news. The plot has not changed. Only the stationery has changed.

Stephen Heins writes commentary at The Word Merchant, where this slightly revised post originally appeared. For other analyses of โ€˜ExxonKnewโ€™, see Big Oil, Exxon Not Guilty as Charged (a rebuttal in six parts). He can be reached at steve@heins.net.