In the ScenarioMIP design paper for CMIP7 (the modeling foundation for future IPCC AR7), lead authors (including Detlef van Vuuren) state that the high-end CMIP6 scenario SSP5-8.5 (successor to RCP8.5) “have become implausible” for the 21st century.

Reasons cited: renewable cost trends, policy emergence, and recent emissions data. The new scenario range narrows on the high end; the replacement “High” scenario assumes policy rollback but stays below prior 8.5 W/m² forcing. Low-end scenarios have also shifted due to observed trends.

This echoes years of critiques from Roger Pielke Jr., Justin Ritchie, Glen Peters, Zeke Hausfather, and others: RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 assumed unrealistic coal resurgence (multiple times current levels, straining reserves), high population + slow tech progress, and was never ideal as a “business-as-usual” baseline. It was overused in thousands of papers, impact studies, and media for dramatic projections (often 4°C+ warming).

Gregory Wrightstone argues this validates long-standing critiques: extreme models were overstated, CO₂ is beneficial (plant food, not just a pollutant), modest warming has upsides, and there’s no existential crisis. He highlights record crop yields and ecosystem gains from CO₂ fertilization.

This fits broader data: satellite observations show significant planetary greening; global crop production has risen substantially with CO₂ and technology; deaths from extreme weather have plummeted due to wealth and adaptation.

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Exclusive: Wrightstone on U.N. Climate Panel Admission Apocalyptic Predictions Were Always ‘Implausible’

The United Nations’ Climate Panel admitted its apocalyptic predictions were always “implausible,” geologist Gregory Wrightstone, Executive Director of the CO2 Coalition and author of “A Very Convenient Warming: How Modest Warming And More CO2 Are Benefitting Humanity,” told Breitbart News Daily.

Wrightstone told listeners that he was happy to deliver “good news and the truth about what is actually happening to Earth’s ecosystems and to the human condition,” contrary to the fearmongering routinely espoused by the radical left. BREITBART has the story.

He touted “huge benefits” that are accumulating across “almost every ecological niche across the earth.”

“And humanity is benefiting from warming in more C02. We should welcome that. We should celebrate it instead,” he said, debunking the longtime narrative that C02 is a terrible, toxic pollutant and will inevitably lead to our demise. On the contrary, Wrightstone said it is not a pollutant at all.

“If we look at the science, the facts, and the data, number one: C02 is not a pollutant. It’s not toxic,” he said, explaining that if someone locked themselves in a room with only C02, they would die from lack of oxygen – not because C02 is toxic.

He continued, “Right now we’re a little bit over 400 parts per million ppm,” he said before referencing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which he is all too familiar with, serving as an “expert reviewer for that very same IPCC several years ago.”

“And they’ve been touting this, what’s called RCP 8.5,” he said, explaining this in layman’s terms.

“Representative Concentration Pathways. They predict that C02 levels will reach over 2,000 parts per million in the future. We’ve been pushing back. We, being the coalition experts, have been pushing back against that. And just last week, the IPCC came out, and get this. They said this, what we’ve been predicting for 15 years, they called it implausible,” he revealed, explaining that the IPCC admitted their own predictions were bunk.

“I would go further, I would call it impossible, and so all these models they’re using to predict warming from C02 that will be unusual and unprecedented, they’re all wrong, and this is just one part of it,” Wrightstone said, revealing that they also “amplify the supposed warming by increases in water vapor, which then increase temperatures even higher” – another falsehood.

“And again we find that’s just not true either,” he said, offering the biggest takeaway for Americans across the nation and individuals worldwide: The climate crisis does not exist.

“They should sleep well. There is no climate crisis, and they should sleep well because Earth and humanity are benefiting, not getting worse,” he added.

Read the full story here.