From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

For anyone at the conference, if you run into me, I will be more than happy to answer any questions.

Major points:

• The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
  • The Canadian model has been thrown out.
• The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO “look”.
• The closest analog is 2015.
• The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
  • Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
• There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
• Early-season Gulf or SE system is a concern
• The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
• Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible

The forecast numbers for the 2026 season

Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105

The closest analog is 2015:

This El Niño means business:

Now that we have a good look at the Euro, its message is strongly bearish on the overall season and well below the averages since 2015.

SST forecasts

First of all, the 2023 hyper El Niño season had a nice warm stretch in the Atlantic. The SOI for that El Niño revealed a pattern that in the Pacific was unlike most El Niños, despite the warmth farther to the east and allowed the big numbers we had then.

So that analog has been taken out.

The hyper 2024 season, which we picked out in December before, had the ultimate presentation with a weak La Niña and a large area of warmer-than-average SSTs in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

This season is the antilog to that, with warm water split in the Atlantic and a stronger El Niño:

This is more like 2015:

So, I am jumping on that analog.

The Sea Level Pressure forecast is not favorable either, implying stronger than average low-level easterlies in the Main Development Region at the height of the season:

That would increase shear.

The CFSv2 shows lower shear to the north of the Main Development Region, which makes sense:

Again, it also sounds a bit of an alarm about in-close development, with a puncher’s chance of a major hit. There will be a tendency for development to the north of the Main Development Region, and that increases the chances for storms in the Atlantic to stay out there, unless it develops to the west of 70°W.

There is no stopping this El Niño event, as the cumulative buildup of heat has been held back by the La Niña.

However, it’s all there and has been waiting for a burst of low-level westerly winds. This should start as the SOI is reversing:

As far as landfalls, I have no strong opinion this year. I don’t think this is like the weak El Niño of 2004, which saw Florida get hit with multiple storms. The last El Niño produced a fake major landfall with Idalia, which fell apart completely with no verified wind gust over 90 mph over land. With the water so warm, any storm that develops in close can get in a slugger’s punch. So, we can’t rule out a major hurricane hitting. Overall, though, I believe it is going to be much more in line with scattershot seasons.

Remember though, three El Niño years, 1969, 1976, and 1991, had hits in the Northeast. You have to wonder how long their drought can go on, along with southeastern Florida (landfalls from the southeast).

Early on (before July 15), I am concerned about the Gulf states, including Florida. The Gulf is quite warm. While I am just speculating here, I am expecting higher than average pressures to stick their nose down the plains toward Mexico in May and June.

This would force convergence into the Gulf. So that is something to watch.

The Western Pacific Typhoon season has been remarkably quiet for the last few years, contributing to the overall downturn (slightly) of Global ACE. This is because the Western Pacific is home to close to 60% of the Northern Hemisphere’s normal ACE. There have been only two extremely active years since 2015, and the busiest was 2015, our analog.

Remember, normal there is around 300. So I would prepare for a lot of activity in the Western Pacific. The Eastern Pacific looks normal to a bit above normal, and there will likely be some late-season landfalls on the Mexican coast. Hawaii also has to be wary, as El Niño years have been known to bring problems there.

The Verdict

I have become more impressed with the El Niño forecast and what is going on in the Pacific. The burst of westerlies at 850 mb to the north of the tropics in the Pacific is the strongest on record so early, and the SOI is likely to tank. The very warm Gulf and the late May and June pattern have me concerned about early-season impacts. There have been El Niño years when the Northeast has been hit, but again, unlike other years, I have no strong feeling for where the storms will go. I do have a strong feeling about total numbers, which should be suppressed. Because of in-close development and the warm SSTs, there is a puncher’s chance of a major hurricane landfall.

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Joe Bastardi

Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com