From Watts Up With That?

Guest “long-time, no-posts” by David Middleton

Texans recently experienced our worst winter storm since Uri in February 2021. Here in the DFW area, the temperature dropped below freezing early on Saturday morning, January 24, and stayed below 32 °F until the afternoon of January 27. In Dallas, we experienced freezing rain, sleet and snow for two straight days (January 24-25).

Fern impacted about half of the Lower 48…

Things were so rough that alleged energy expert and frequent ERCOT critic Ed Hirs was predicting the imminent collapse of the grid on Saturday afternoon…

The heavy stuff won’t be here until later, and the ERCOT grid is already showing stress.

But… Somehow the ERCOT grid held up just fine…

Winter Storm Fern – January 2026
Summary
During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT successfully managed the Texas electric grid through a period of extreme cold and freezing precipitation, utilizing available tools and resources to ensure electricity demand was met safely and reliably. The statewide grid performed well; ERCOT did not need to call for conservation, did not issue an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and there were no systemwide power outages.

ERCOT

Any guesses as to which generation fuel carried the load?

Natural gas carried the load, despite the fact that more gas production was shut-in due to freeze-offs than during Uri.

How could this be? Firstly, natural gas production in January 2026 was about 20 Bcf/d higher than it was in February 2021. And, secondly, more than enough gas was available in storage to cover the short-fall.

While the deep freeze temporarily spiked natural gas prices to >$30/mcf, prices quickly fell back to pre-fern levels.

From January 24 through January 27, fossil fuels and nuclear power delivered 77% of the electricity, wind delivered delivered a fairly steady 15% and the combination of solar power and batteries delivered a paltry 8% of the electricity generation desoite this…

Solar Gains Traction
Texas managed to install as much solar power capacity to its grid last year as it did in 2024, despite the lack of federal support and with the additional pressure of tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.

Despite the range of headwinds, the Dallas Fed said utility-scale solar power will remain an important source of energy for the grid in Texas for years to come.

Texas is the top state for utility-scale solar power generation. Industrial Info is tracking 25 solar projects in the state in the construction phase with a high probability of completion that are worth an estimated $9.5 billion. Greenalia Power U.S. is behind the largest of those, with a $1.04 billion project slated for Childress, Texas.

Link

If ERCOT only had more solar power and batteries!

Solar actually performed very well on the afternoon of January 26, nearly knocking coal off the grid for an hour or two…

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck… Peak solar delivery occurred right when demand was bottoming out. When solar power works as intended, it totally disrupts the reliable components of the grid. Fortunately, it rarely works as intended. Just two days earlier, solar delivered almost nothing…