From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

We are hearing about the coming El Niño. I will deal with the weather aspects in a post later in the week. But look at this quote, I pulled in the Washington Post.

Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb described this change in global temperatures during major El Niño events as an upward “stairstep.”

“Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Niño event before the next El Niño comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,” he said.

1) How long have I been showing this is a step-up function?

Decades now.

And it’s the excess WV that we cannot get rid of, not the trace GHGs that man is putting into the atmosphere.

BUT YOU WILL NEVER GET THAT ADMISSION OUT OF PEOPLE PUSHING THIS. 

So now they acknowledge that the source region is the oceanic El Niño Step ups. 

So, what is causing the step up?

Let’s get to the source. So, without El Niños, there is no extra WV and now warming right. Again, as I have pointed out thousands of times there would have been little if any warming if the oceans were the same way 40 years ago.

now

I have gone through this in previous blogs. Notice another hot spot developing right over where the Hunga source region for underwater volcanic activity is.

So, the steady state increase of CO2 is clearly seen since the 1950s.

There was little change in SST from the 50s through the 80s (I have gone over this a thousand times, but since they are at least admitting the step-up function lets counter the idea that its man-made GHG that is causing all this.)

Here is what changed.  The increase in geothermal input, which PRECEDED THE RISE, indicates likely causation.

The hypothesis is simple.

This is a different aspect of the forcing that was not there 40 years ago.

Its input, which the scientific community refuses to acknowledge or take the steps to test (Saturate the ocean floor with sensors, so they have plausible deniability if they never measure it) causes a cumulative build-up of heat.

This distorts the global wind pattern, so we are in a La Niña base State to counter it. Plainly seen in the Multivariate Enso Index data since the super El Niño of 97-98.

Notice how the last El Niño was not as strong as the other big ones in the data.

This suggests that the spike in global temperatures was driven in part, and perhaps a major part, by Hunga. So, the 2 coincided, and as far as the Oceanic Niño Index, 23-24 was strong, but the impact on the atmosphere was blunted (that is why this is a multivariate index), likely because the difference in SST between the ENSO areas and the non-ENSO areas is not as great anymore.  It’s the difference that drives the weather, and if the ocean is simply warm all over, the impact would not be as great. This is part of the distortion I speak about.

That distortion is also leading to distorted cloud patterns as vertical velocities over the tropics have decreased with a weakened Hadley cell. The result is less clouds, so more incoming radiation to the tropics, and more heating.

Now here is the kill shot. If there is continuous high input of geothermal, then there is a cumulative buildup of heat in the oceans, so when the La Niña base state is disturbed, the El Niño comes back.  The La Niña base state is to counter the warming and is only because of the warming.  But the heat as to eventually overwhelm it until it can recalibrate. 

But how strong the El Niño is and how much input it has needs to be questioned. The more WV already in the air, the less the input, unless it’s very great, will impact the system.  It’s already warm, and it’s cooling back now.   

So, while climate activists can jump up and down screaming another spike is coming, 1) that admits the ocean is in control, and not man-made gasses, which is why they run to the argument that man-made gases won’t let it cool down, when in reality it’s the WATER VAPOR FROM NATURAL INPUT THAT IS DOING IT.  2) This may just be a bounce up and down in the new plateau from the last event, which ignores Hunga’s input, which IMO is an absurd avoidance of the issue.  Again, that would point to nature, not man, as the cause, and we can’t have that.

I suspect over the years (it’s taken 2 decades to get that admission) much of what I have been showing will be shown to have merit.  But in the meantime, remember the bottom line in this is that man is still the cause. They are not going to stop and any novel ideas, even if they are based on simple natural ideas, will be shot down. In fact, that’s the biggest danger. What if the simple answer is the correct answer? Down goes the whole cottage industry.  

Its political and the current administration is not going to be there forever. Remember, this is the ultimate weapon (climate) to take down the foundation system of this country.  So, anything countering that will be hidden.

Again, anyone who has followed me has seen me opine on this for close to 2 decades. So, if what I am saying has merit, it won’t be acknowledged till such a time when the political agenda at work here has made it so it’s too late.