As German Gas Storage Dips Dangerously Low…Shortage Hardly Avoidable

By P Gosselin

German energy channel Energie & Outdoor Chiemgau looks at the heating gas supply in Germany, which is steadily approaching a tense phase as storage levels dwindle. 

This January is described as one of the coldest in the last 15 years. During such cold phases, German gas consumption spikes drastically (up to a 1.3% loss in capacity per day). Currently (as of January 19) the gas storage level is at 41.8%, much lower than at this time last year (near 64%).

Nearing critical levels

As the current storage levels in Germany continue fall, a critical point approaches: Once storage drops below 20%, it becomes technically difficult to maintain enough pressure for standard withdrawal. According to Stefan Spiegelsperger of Energie & Outdoor Chiemgau, this marks the beginning of a gas shortage situation.

A significant portion of Germany’s stored gas is being used to generate electricity, especially during periods of low wind (which we currently have) or solar output (“Dunkelflaute”). And although LNG terminals are available, many remain underutilized due to a shortage of tanker ships. Moreover, Germany still continues to transit gas to neighboring countries.

In his video, Spiegelsperger criticizes the forecasts from INES (Initiative Energien Speichern) as being too optimistic. He points out that actual storage levels are already falling below their predicted curves, which is worrisome. If the cold wave lasts until mid-February, a reference calculation (based on the year 2010) suggests that storage facilities could be completely emptied.

Potential consequences of a gas shortage

So what happens if the gas storage levels continue on their worrisome path and a real shortage develops? Answer: Rationing begins and the supply of homes will have priority. To secure the supply for private households, the industry would have to drastically curtail its consumption. This would lead to harsh economic consequences.

Also public facilities like swimming pools could be closed, and there might be appeals to lower heating temperatures in homes.

Moreover, based on supply and demand, gas prices are expected to rise.

Stefan Spiegelsperger of Energie & Outdoor Chiemgau believes a gas shortage is hardly avoidable at this point, unless the remainder of the winter surprises and turns out to be extremely mild. At the moment, weather models aren’t seeing that scenario.

Spiegelsperger advises viewers to prepare for potential bottlenecks. A small piece of positive news mentioned is the start of gas deliveries from Azerbaijan, though these only cover a small fraction of the total demand.

This dire situation is in large part thanks to Germany’s reckless foray into green energy fantasies.