Watts Up With That?

Essay by Eric Worrall

“… Major uncertainties include … exit or connection of large loads, dependability of new technologies … regular or seasonal decommitment of coal units … changes to exit timing or unexpected plant failure. …”

Energy grid not ready for Eraring coal plant’s closure, AEMO says

By political reporter Jake Evans

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The energy grid is not ready for the closure of the Eraring coal plant, the energy operator has warned, raising the threat of widespread blackouts in eastern Australia.

The Hunter Valley coal plant’s life had already been extended from a planned closure of 2025 to 2027, at a cost to taxpayers of up to $225 million a year.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has warned, however, that while there are enough renewables in the pipeline to cover its closure, supporting infrastructure to keep the grid stable is not expected to be ready.

“Coal-fired power stations are retiring, and this is not new news. Ten have retired since 2012, and the remaining fleet are getting old,” AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman told AM.

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“We need to make sure that the grid has a steady heartbeat.”

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But he said necessary technology like synchronous condensers, which help to absorb reactive power and keep the grid stable, is not due to be installed until after Eraring’s closure.

…Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-01/energy-grid-not-ready-eraring-coal-aemo/106085200

From the AEMO report 2025 Transition Plan for System Security;

2025 Transition Plan for System Security December 2025

Maintaining system security through the energy transition

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Throughout this transition, the NEM must be both reliable and secure. To be reliable, there must be enough generation to meet consumer needs at any point in time. To be secure, the power system must operate safely within its defined technical limits, withstand disturbances, and be able to restart in the event of a widespread outage.

For decades, system security services have been a by-product of coal-fired power generation. As these aging generators withdraw and retire, replacement services must be delivered on time to support higher levels of renewable energy produced by residential rooftops and commercial scale generators.

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Shortfalls in security investment mean action is needed for imminent transition points

Industry and governments are already acting to resolve known risks, with specific remedial action needed to navigate fast-approaching transition points:

System strength requirements to enable the planned retirement of Eraring Power Station have been identified by AEMO each year since 2021, and Transgrid is progressing the procurement of new synchronous condensers. The decommitment of Eraring before these synchronous condensers are operational would result in the activation of Transgrid system security contracts (where available). If security contracts are unavailable, operational intervention may be required by AEMO up to 30% of the time, at significant cost to consumers, to avoid potential consequences of greater severity. Furthermore, without these synchronous condensers the New South Wales power system could face periods where there may not be enough large synchronous units available for AEMO to direct online for system strength, creating a plausible risk of last-resort operational actions.

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1.2.3 Shortages of system security can have severe consequences

Despite best endeavours, the power system can, on rare occasions, experience cascading failures resulting in loss of supply to large portions of the power system. Recent examples – including on the Iberian Peninsula and Chile in 2025, Brazil in 2023 and 2018, and South Australia in 2016 – demonstrate how failures to maintain sufficient system security can lead to widespread blackouts with severe consequences.

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1.2.4 System security risks are asymmetric

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The period of infrastructure renewal and technology change in the NEM presents a heightened risk profile for system security. This is due to uncertainties associated with what asset and technology changes might occur, when, and the practicalities of commissioning new large infrastructure.

Major uncertainties include the timing of network augmentation, delivery of synchronous condensers and new generators, potential exit or connection of large loads, dependability of new technologies in providing certain security services, regular or seasonal decommitment of coal units under flexible operating regimes, changes to exit timing or unexpected plant failure. Statistically, failure rates increase as plants near the end of their planned operational life …

…Read more: https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/tpss/2025-transition-plan-for-system-security.pdf

Wow. Who could have seen this coming, other than anyone with a brain and an ounce of engineering knowledge?

Not Zero? NSW State Government to Pay up to $225 Million per Annum to a Single Coal Plant to Remain Open

The AEMO is still talking like the renewable transition just needs a little adjustment, slightly earlier delivery of inertial stability systems, but big questions remain unanswered, like how to time shift the duck neck duck curve between peak solar around midday and peak demand in early evening. And even the AEMO admits to “major uncertainties”, including uncertainties over the “dependability of new technologies” in stabilising the grid.

One of my first software development gigs, many years ago, was working for a major Aussie state government electricity utility. The thing which impressed me was those guys had a real sense of mission, like police or emergency services. It wasn’t just a job to the electricity people, knew there would be real consequences if the grid went down, and saw it as their mission to keep the electricity flowing.

But how could anyone maintain that loyalty to mission in today’s net zero madhouse?

Coal plant operators, vilified as climate enemies, are trying to bail out of the sinking ship before they are forced into 5 year notice period contracts or whatever term of indentured servitude the Aussie government chooses to impose.

Gas plant operators are forced to play second fiddle to renewables, with the ever present threat of price controls if they try to make up lost revenue when the renewables inevitably stumble.

Hydropower – in a country as dry as Australia, there just isn’t that much to go around.

The Aussie mainstream opposition just cautiously backed away from Net Zero, which while a step in the right direction will depress investment even further.

And none of the other technologies meant to stabilise the coming renewable heavy grid is known to be fit for purpose – as the AEMO themselves admit.

The Aussie electricity grid is politicians playing a game of chicken against the laws of physics. And the green fanatics who run Australia have no intention of being the first to blink.

A Murdoch Media Sky News video on the situation is available here.

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Correction (EW): I mentioned the “Duck Neck”, I should have said “Duck Curve”. The Duck Curve is the amount of load which has to be carried by sources other than solar and wind, with maximum load appearing in the early evening, when solar is dropping to zero.