From KlimaNachrichten

By Fritz Vahrenholt

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

as the chart below shows, global mean temperatures in February 2025 remained roughly the same as in the previous month. The deviation from the long-term average of satellite measurements is only 0.5 degrees Celsius. Temperatures are expected to continue to decline over the course of the year, even though the cold LaNina phase in the Pacific Ocean is coming to an end and neutral temperatures are setting in.

Today I will deal with the disappointing results of the exploratory agreement on energy and climate policy between the CDU and SPD.

No change of policy of the Red-Green energy policy

A revealing sentence by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz is the appropriate summary of the momentous “business as usual” in energy policy by the black-red coalition:

“Almost everything we propose has already been presented by the Greens in the last legislative period.”

As a reminder: the serious mistakes of the nuclear phase-out by the Merkel and traffic light governments, the escalating CO2 pricing of energy in Germany, the premature decommissioning of coal-fired power plants, the €500 billion expansion of renewable energies and the equally high costs of grid expansion have led to a dramatic increase in electricity prices. Germany has the highest electricity price of all industrialized nations, and the energy-intensive industry is shrinking and leaving Germany as a result.

Black-Red continues the expensive energy transition

This fatal policy of replacing base-load electricity from nuclear and coal-fired power plants with more expensive and unreliable renewable energies is to be continued by the black-red coalition. For example, the exploratory paper calls for “the determined and grid-friendly expansion of solar and wind energy”. The fact that solar and wind energy need 20 billion euros in subsidies every year is not an issue. Solar energy and wind energy have never been grid friendly. On summer days (Hellbrise), the unchecked feed-in of solar power leads to frequency problems in the grid, so that entire regions will soon have to be switched off to avoid a “brownout”.

In winter, a lack of solar power leads to dark doldrums when there is no wind, which causes prices to explode and even sweeps away our neighbors and gets them into trouble. To bridge such times, a second power plant inventory of 20,000 MW of gas-fired power plants is to be built. However, according to the coalition partners, natural gas use is to be ended in 2045 (“We stand by the European climate targets”). Long-term gas contracts are no longer possible for gas-fired power plants, which may be connected to the grid from 2030. An annual subsidy of billions is looming here, because LNG gas is two or three times as expensive as pipeline gas. Its own gas production – Germany has enough of its own shale gas for the next 30 years – is not even mentioned. Shale gas production in Germany remains prohibited.

The fact that six to nine nuclear power plants could be brought back within 2 to 5 years is not addressed with a single sentence. During the election campaign, the CDU and also Friedrich Merz threw sand in the eyes of the citizens that they wanted to examine the return of the nuclear power plants. Even an examination is no longer mentioned in the exploratory paper. With the 20 billion subsidies for wind and solar energy in a single year, the revitalization of 6 reliable, inexpensive nuclear power plants could be achieved. As Boris Pistorius so aptly said: “We have them (the CDU/CSU, ed.) not allowed into our front yard for a second”.

Billions in subsidies instead of base-load power generation

The erosion of the German energy-intensive industry is not to be achieved by expanding base-load power plants, but by subsidizing the price of electricity. Electricity is to be subsidized by 5 €ct/kWh from taxpayers’ money. With 450 terawatt hours per year, this amounts to around €20 billion. They are divided into the reduction of electricity tax (about €7 billion) and the halving of grid fees (about €12.5 billion). This is not of great importance for energy-intensive industry, which has so far been significantly exempt from electricity tax and grid charges. However, this is essential for the survival of the manufacturing industry, it is true. We now know the price tag of the wrong energy policy: the relief from the costs of the energy transition will cost 80 billion over the next four years. That’s why you need special debts to finance it.

The CDU and SPD have agreed that CO2 capture (CCS), which has so far been banned in Germany, can be used in certain industries such as cement plants. However, this had already been initiated by the red-green coalition at the end of the traffic light. The CDU celebrates this as a success. But the crucial question of whether coal- and gas-fired power plants (instead of the unaffordable hydrogen power plants) will also be equipped with CCS is not to be found in the exploratory paper. The SPD did not let the CDU into its front yard, which was barricaded with ideological fences.

The CDU also sees the agreement on the promotion of fusion energy (“We want to promote fusion research more strongly”) on its meager credit side. In reality, however, it is a Social Democratic concern to promote fusion research, in particular the Wendelstein 7-X fusion device in Greifswald. Since Gerd Schröder, the federal government has been funding fusion research with €150 million per year. Only the Greens have repeatedly tried to abolish fusion research in the budget committee. But in the last traffic light government, fusion research was increased to €250 million at the insistence of the FDP. The CDU is selling the continuation of the traffic light policy as a groundbreaking success, because it wants to distract from the fact that nuclear energy research for the development of the inherently safe nuclear power plants of the 4th generation of nuclear power plants, which Merz raved about so much during the election campaign, could not be enforced against the SPD. How pathetic!

Industry in the stranglehold of climate policy

On the other hand, the creation of “lead markets for climate-neutral products” such as “quotas for climate-neutral steel” was full-bodiedly agreed. This swamp plant from the front yard of the Greens leads to nothing more than a significant increase in the price of green steel-based products in Germany. Green steel is twice as expensive. The struggling automotive industry or the construction industry are happy to pay for that.

We remember how the CDU already demanded the lifting of the ban on internal combustion engines (2035) during the European election campaign and also suggested to citizens in the Bundestag election campaign that the ban on internal combustion engines should be lifted. The SPD has not allowed any of this in its front yard. The position paper says cloudy and cheap: “We are committed to Germany as an automotive location and its jobs. In doing so, we rely on openness to technology.”

That’s a rather cryptic formulation. Technology openness in achieving the zero CO2 target for 2035 for motor vehicles, which is not in question, means CO2-free fuels. Not a word about it, no promotion of e-fuel, no research. Instead, the e-mobility of cars with batteries from China is to be promoted again with a purchase incentive. How many billions? In our electricity mix, every car with a battery made from coal-fired electricity from China emits as much CO2 as a diesel vehicle that has driven 100,000 km. The subsidy will therefore lead to global additional emissions in China. With German taxpayers’ money.

But it can get worse. The Greens are playing high stakes in order to give their clientele of climate NGOs, climate associations and the climate industry a fat chunk of the 500 billion euros in special infrastructure debts. And if things get really bad, there is not only an informal black-red-green government. After all, Robert Habeck would prefer to continue where he left off with the destruction of German prosperity. And he could live very well with this position paper as a minister at the cabinet table.

Yours

sincerely, Fritz Vahrenholt