From KlimaNachrichten

By KlimaNachrichten Redakteur

By Fritz Vahrenholt

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,

the unusually strong warming of global temperatures since 2023 continues. And although the strong El Niño of 23/24 is over, the temperatures remain high. At this point, I have pointed out two possible influences of warming. One is the eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga in 2022, which threw a column of water up into the stratosphere and increased the concentration of water (the most important greenhouse gas) by 15%, thereby causing a warming effect of a few tenths of a degree.

Another important reason for warming is the reduction in sulphate dust particles due to the international limitation of the sulphur content of shipping. NASA scientists came to the conclusion that the air pollution control measure reduced the dust particles in the air that contribute to cloud formation and therefore increased direct sunlight on Earth. They calculate that 80% of the warming since 2020 is due to this measure. It is true that the extraordinary warming is being used by parts of politics, the media and climate activists to tighten the steps to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the development of total CO2 emissions over the last 10 years hardly allows for a causal relationship between the extraordinary warming and CO2.

Total CO2 emissions have not increased for 10 years. Emissions from fossil sources have increased slightly, but this has been offset by reduced CO2 emissions due to changes in land use (deforestation, forest fires, agriculture). See next graphic, source: Global carbon project 2023) (Red: total CO2 emissions, Black: CO2 emissions from fossil sources, Brown: CO2 emissions from land use).

Of course, CO2 concentrations in the air have also increased in the last 10 years, as about the same amount has been added every year and today only about 57% of emissions are absorbed by oceans and plants. The rest will be mined in a few decades. The greenhouse effect caused by CO2 has therefore increased slightly over the last 10 years, but it does not explain the strong warming of the last three years (see first graph of the UAH temperatures at the top).

As early as 2021, Dr. Hans-Rolf Dübal and I carried out a sensational evaluation of NASA’s measurements of incoming short-wave solar radiation and long-wave reflection caused by greenhouse gases. We came to the conclusion that around 80% of the warming is due to increased irradiation of short-wave radiation from the sun. The main reason for this was the decline in clouds. Higher permeability to incoming solar radiation leads to warming. Of course, an increase in radiation to the earth also leads to an increase in long-wave radiation from the earth and an increase in the greenhouse effect.

But the result was clear. The greenhouse effect of CO2 has a subordinate significance for the warming of the last 20 years. The main effect was the increasing permeability of the clouds to solar radiation, which is also reflected in an increase in the number of sunshine hours per year. In Europe alone, sunshine hours have increased by 250 hours a year in the last 20 years. Other researchers confirmed this surprising development, such as NASA researcher Dr. Norman Loeb, who is responsible for the satellite measurements, Prof. Graeme Stephens (Caltech) and Prof. Thorsten Mauritsen (Stockholm University) or the Finnish climate scientist Prof. Antero Ollila.

But why have the clouds thinned out in the last 20 years? The main candidate for this development is environmental protection measures worldwide for the capture of dust and sulphur dioxide (SO2) – first in the USA and Europe from 1980 and then increasingly in China and Southeast Asia from 2005 onwards. Sulphur dioxide emissions fell by almost half from 2005 to 2022. In addition, from 2020 onwards, shipping emissions were reduced. They alone removed 7 million tons of sulfur dioxide from the air above the world’s oceans.

The decline in clouds is the main cause of warming over the last 20 years The publication by Dr. Hans-Rolf Dübal and me is from 2021 with data up to 2020. We asked ourselves: How has the trend of cloud decline continued since 2020 and have therefore updated the data from the CERES satellite. To anticipate it: the warming of the years 2020-2023 (annual averages) can easily be attributed to the increase in direct solar radiation due to the further thinning of the clouds.

A comparison of the development of short-wave radiation on Earth and long-wave radiation emitted by Earth shows that 2.5 W/m2 is the change in shortwave radiation and 0.66 W/m2 is due to the greenhouse effect. We calculated the radiation effect of CO2 according to the 5th IPCC report of 2018. (pp. 8SM-16). We determined the short-wave radiation from the CERES satellite data. (see next graphic: red : radiation effect of short-wave solar radiation, blue : radiation effect of CO2.

Mind you, these are measurements, not model calculations!

It should be in the highest interest of politics and science to clarify the causes of the increasing solar radiation in detail. Certainly, the reduced cloud-forming dust and sulfur particles played a role. The extent to which warmed oceans contribute is not clear. As it is, however, we are groping in the dark – but politicians are quite certain that a radical fight against CO2 can be derived from this.

Politicians are fighting CO2 – whatever the cost

There is hardly an activity that is not considered by politicians with a punitive tax on the CO2 emitted. From gas and oil heating to fuel, from the manufacture of industrial products to electricity generation, from the CO2 toll on truck transports to the taxation of aviation, goods and services are becoming more expensive and the state is skimming off tens of billions of euros. Yes, even waste incineration will now be subject to CO2 levies and thus the waste fees will also increase. Hardly anyone still has an overview of where the state intervenes and diverts the money collected into subsidies for wind turbines and solar systems.

The latest addition is the CO2 levy on ship transport. Since 1 January 2024, ship transports have also been subject to the CO2 levy. From 2024, 40% of CO2 emissions will be covered by the payment obligation, 70% from 2025 and 100% from 2026. About 6.4 billion will flow into the coffers of the national governments. Intra-European traffic is burdened by 100%, overseas traffic by 50%.
For a forty-foot container from Germany, which transports machines or other goods to the Far East or the East Coast of the USA, according to Maersk, the second largest container shipping company, you have to pay €170 in CO2 tax. A Chinese transport pays nothing. The freight rate currently costs about 400 € per container. This clearly shows that transports to and from Europe are becoming more expensive. Refrigerated ships, which also emit CO2 for cooling, have to reckon with 280 € per container.

If an ore freighter sails from Brazil to Germany, it will pay about €2 CO2 tax per ton of ore or coal in 2026. (0.06 t CO2 times 65 €/tCO2 times 0.5). If the ore freighter sails from Brazil to China, it pays nothing. ThyssenKrupp imports about 20 million tons of ore and coal per year. That makes 16 million in 2024 and 40 million in 2026 for the state treasury.

Why does the German government allow its own companies to be worse off in competition with China? The fact that ships on the route from East Asia hardly want to pass through the Suez Canal because of the Houthi attacks and therefore have to sail around Africa triples the CO2 costs. But that doesn’t interest the Brussels Eurocrats. The whole thing runs under the promising title “Fit for future”, which the federal government and the members of the CDU, Greens and SPD in the European Parliament have agreed to with great conviction. What does the competitiveness of an exporting nation like Germany matter when it comes to supposedly saving the climate?

Sincerely
Yours
Fritz Vahrenholt