From CFACT

By Joe Bastardi

There are two ways to keep temperatures well above normal. We saw that in the UK this May, the warmest on record, not because of sunshine and dry ground, but instead because it was cloudy and we. So IT’S THE NIGHT-TIME LOWS that led to one of the warmest Mays on record for the UK, but many people did not even realize it because it was so wet. So the days were not that warm at all. That is a thumbprint of extra water vapor.

Of late, the Eastern and Southern United States have had warmer nights than days vs the averages.

Night time lows last 5 years July-Sep:

Now look at the precip.

Where it is very dry, THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE WAY ABOVE AVERAGE. This is centered over West Texas.

Further east, where it rains a lot, it is not as warm.

Now look at nighttime lows in the areas that were near normal.

They are well above normal.

But where it is dry, the max temps do go through the roof.

Mexico has been very dry and warm since spring.

That dryness is shifting north over the next few months.

And the response is the warmest we have seen on the European model.

Since this is the hottest time of the year, this is extremely impressive. The reason is because the higher the averages, the harder it is to make it higher. We could see unheard-of anomalies, up to 5F above normal, in the darker shades. You can see the warmth over eastern Hudson Bay, but with the means lower, it is easier to have a bigger deviation.

The mid and late-summer increase in moisture in the southwest, which is counted on for moisture and some cooling, is likely not to be that strong this year. For instance, in India, a strong monsoon will set in, and they have been very hot, but it will be cooler the rest of the summer. In fact, the strong Indian Monsoon is linked to the strong hurricane season in the Atlantic as those waves move west into Africa and then out into the Atlantic.  But why would it be dry over the southwest?  The reason is likely due to the hurricane season. When you have heavy precip around the Caribbean and Gulf into eastern Mexico, you have compensating areas of dryness to the northwest.

The entire basin

We have a hot summer for the country, and it may indeed be an endless summer into the fall for much of the nation. The center of the greatest heat RELATIVE TO AVERAGES is likely to be where averages are highest, meaning a challenge to the hottest JAS on record. Combine that with our ideas for an active hurricane season; there will be plenty to talk about. And, of course, even non-events relative to averages are already being hyped.

So I  wanted this idea out there front and center. Last year, the core of the worst heat was Texas and Louisiana. This year, it is further west.

Get ready for the heat to get turned up, not only with temperatures but weaponizing weather.