December 14, 2023 by KlimaNachrichten Editor

Monthly newsletter by Fritz Vahrenholt

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, As usual, you will receive my monitor on global temperature rise. After that, I will deal with the role of the German government at the climate conference in Dubai.

In November 2023, the deviation of global temperature from the 30-year average of satellite measurements from the University of Alabama (UAH) remained the same compared to October. The value is 0.91 degrees Celsius. The El Niño is expected to last until April-June 2024. However, the peak seems to have been passed. The average temperature increase per decade since 1979 has been 0.14 degrees Celsius.

The UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai 

The UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai shows how far Germany has moved away from the real energy policy of other countries. Chancellor Scholz did not achieve much resonance with his appearance, because the others know the German tune that wind power and photovoltaics save the world.

They know the fatal consequences of German energy policy on economic development and know that this naïve, unrealistic German energy policy has led the country to the highest electricity prices in the world. Scholz: “The technologies are there: wind power, photovoltaics, electric drives and green hydrogen.” In other words, he is reducing the energy future to two energy sources, because electric drives and green hydrogen are not primary energy sources.

In 2022, 5% of the primary energy generated globally came from solar and wind energy. Therefore, his call for a tripling of wind and solar energy by 2030 is at best suitable for meeting the world’s growing hunger for energy rather than replacing the coal, oil and gas base in any relevant form. And he forgets, as he always does in this country, two technological paths that the whole world will take – except for the green-ideological barricaded Germany: the expansion of nuclear energy and CO2 capture in the use of coal, oil and gas. The 250 German delegates had to take note of the fact that 22 countries were calling for the tripling of nuclear energy capacity in Dubai. Nuclear energy – Olaf Scholz’s dead horse – has thus left its wallflower existence at world climate conferences behind and has become part of the final document.

The resolution, adopted on 13 December, calls on states to make a just, orderly and fair transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. In addition, the draft calls for greater reliance on other emission-free or low-emission technologies. In addition to renewables, nuclear power, hydrogen and technologies for capturing and storing CO₂ (CCS) are also mentioned. The final document does not provide for a binding phase-out of coal, oil and gas.
Germany only attracts attention when it puts on its spending pants, as it did on the first day, when Minister Schulze put 100 million on the table in Dubai for distribution to other countries. In the end, Minister Baerbock added another €60 million. This ignores the fact that Germany has been distributing the largest chunk of taxpayers’ money of any country in the world for years: €10 billion per year for climate protection projects in other countries. Mr. Lindner is still looking for spending cuts to avoid further debt in order not to have to abandon the debt brake. This would be a large fund, the deletion of which would not result in any loss of prosperity in Germany.

In their fight against coal, oil and gas, Chancellor Scholz and the German delegation conceal the fact that CO2 emissions in this country, which have been falling for decades, have only risen again as a result of the traffic light government as a result of the decommissioning of the last six nuclear power plants. In the following figure, we can see the CO2 pollution of the German electricity supply. Since 2021, it has been increasing again. In 2023, CO2 intensity did not increase further because energy-intensive industry collapsed by 20% in 2023 and therefore the demand for coal-fired electricity did not increase further. At the time of the Dubai conference, Germany had a CO2 intensity of 597g CO2/kWh – one of the highest in the last 6 years.

In addition to the additional CO2 emissions, the German government is also responsible for a doubling of electricity prices on the stock exchange. In one year alone, this amounts to €25 billion in additional costs for citizens and businesses (500 TWh times €5 cents/kWh). In addition, there is a €10.6 billion EEG levy for 2024 for wind and solar energy, which is now to be paid by taxpayers through the federal budget. Not to mention the increased grid costs and costs for parked wind power (1 billion in 2022).

According to the coalition agreement of the federal government, the coal phase-out should “ideally” be brought forward to 2030. When the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining, 50 new gas-fired power plants (25,000 MW) are to be built (construction period approx. 6 years), which will be mainly supplied by additional liquefied natural gas. That’s not wise. First, imported liquefied natural gas is more expensive than pipeline gas. But based on a calculation by the US scientist Robert Howarth of Cornell University, this path leads to extremely high greenhouse gas emissions.

Howarth convincingly calculates that the greenhouse gas emissions of a gas-fired power plant powered by liquefied natural gas from the USA are as high as those of a coal-fired power plant in Germany. Natural gas has a greenhouse effect 30 times higher than CO2. So much gas is lost on the way from production to liquefaction, transport and regasification in Germany that the gas-fired power plant operated by it has no less of a greenhouse effect than a coal-fired power plant.

Liquefied natural gas instead of coal – this green path of the German government makes Germany’s electricity generation more expensive and increases greenhouse gas emissions. It would be better, as Howarth writes, to keep the coal-fired power plants in Germany on the grid and not replace them with liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plants. If the existing coal-fired power plants were then equipped with CO2 capture, one would even contribute to CO2 reduction. The production of its own shale gas in northern Germany would also bring great ecological and economic advantages over LNG imports. As a rule, however, the green-red-yellow federal government too often decides on the solution that is the worst for Germany out of ignorance or ideology.

Ms. Baerbock and the Paris Agreement 

In her press conference in Dubai, the German Foreign Minister declared: “We are here to save the world for all humanity.” Again and again, she refers to the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times – preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius. At this point, we do not want to deal with the fact that the period around 1860 with the end of the Little Ice Age was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years. To take this time, which was dangerously cold for humanity, as a starting point for a temperature target may well be questioned. The average temperature of the last 2000 years is more likely to be around the year 1950. However, it is more important to deal with the wording of the Paris Agreement. Article 4, paragraph 1 of the agreement sets out the emission targets for this century.

“In order to achieve the long-term temperature target referred to in Article 2, the Parties shall
aim to reach the global peak of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognising that the timeframe for reaching the peak will be longer for the Parties that are developing countries, and thereafter rapid reductions in line with the best available scientific data. evidence to achieve a balance in the second half of this century between anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases from sources and removals of such gases by sinks … to produce.”

In the second half of this century, therefore, a balance should be achieved between CO2 emissions and CO2 sinks, i.e. oceans and plants that absorb CO2. As the CO2 balances of the Global carbon project published a few days ago show, 57% of CO2 emissions are now absorbed by oceans and plants.

The historical development shown below shows that the uptake of plants and the oceans has increased with the increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Reducing emissions to the level of ocean and plant uptake in the second half of the century, as required by the Paris Agreement, would stop further increases in CO2 in the atmosphere. In this respect, net zero is achieved when CO2 emissions are halved. This is because the uptake of oceans and plants depends solely on the CO2 concentration achieved in the air and not on the emissions from the chimneys. So if the uptake of oceans and plants remains constant and emissions are halved, the CO2 problem will be solved.

I wish you all a blessed Christmas season and a Happy New Year 2024
Yours sincerely
, Fritz Vahrenholt