Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
Boutros Boutros got the UNFCCC, Kofi Annan the Kyoto Protocol, Ban Ki-Moon the Paris Agreement, but António Gutteres gets – nothing.
The lack of UN progress on climate change is so desperate, Gutteres tried to diversify;
But with China and the USA going all in on the race for artificial super intelligence, nobody is going to put the brakes on AI development anytime soon.
Record heat waves, deadly flooding and extreme weather reflect an ever-warming planet poised to soon breach safe temperature limits, according to a UN report released on Tuesday, but doubling down on climate action now could avoid a climate catastrophe.
Key points
Rapid, collective and global action is vital to cap the temperature rise at 1.5°C
Climate action can reverse current trend by slashing methane pollution, protecting land, forest and oceans and accelerating the phaseout of fossil fuels
Every fraction of a degree will cost lives, destroy livelihoods, deepen inequality and push ecosystems closer to irreversible damage
The scorching heat in the northern hemisphere in recent months, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
He recalled that the historic 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw world leaders pledge to keep temperature rise to the 1.5°C limit above pre-industrial levels, which scientists say is critical to avoiding the worst climate devastation.
Indeed, the world is failing to keep that promise, according to the new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
“The fight for 1.5 degrees is the fight for humanity,” he said. “We are set to breach the 1.5°C limit within the next few years.”
The lack of UN progress on climate change is so desperate, Gutteres tried to diversify;
Antonio Guterres at AI Impact Summit: ‘Less hype, less fear’ – IPCC-style UN panel aims for ‘human control’ of AI
At the India AI Impact Summit 2026, UN chief Antonio Guterres emphasised the need for a balanced approach to AI, advocating for less hype and fear while promoting human oversight.
Written By Gulam Jeelani Published 20 Feb 2026, 11:57 AM IST
India AI Impact Summit: UN chief Antonio Guterres on 20 February called for ‘less hype, less fear’ over Artificial Intelligence (AI) as he said that a new expert panel aimed to make human control ‘a technical reality’, news agency AFP reported.
Guterres said the United Nations General Assembly had confirmed the 40 members proposed for the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence.
“Science-led governance is not a brake on progress” but can make it “safer, fairer, and more widely shared”, he said at the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi.
‘Less hype, less fear. More facts and evidence’
“The message is simple: Less hype, less fear. More facts and evidence,” he said. The advisory body – aiming to be to AI what the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to global warming – was created in August.
…
“We are barrelling into the unknown. Our goal is to make human control a technical reality — not a slogan,” he said.
But with China and the USA going all in on the race for artificial super intelligence, nobody is going to put the brakes on AI development anytime soon.
Gutteres became UN Secretary General in December 2016 – just after President Trump won his first term. When Trump was defeated by President Biden in 2020, Gutteres must have known hope for a climate achievement of his very own.
But this was not to be. Biden’s unfocussed scattergun approach to advancing green causes failed to win traction with the global community. The one real chance Biden had of advancing environmental causes – silencing people who criticised him – collapsed in ridicule, after it emerged the person Biden chose to head his climate censorship push was a real oddball.
The Disinformation Governance Board, DisavowedHomeland Security pauses a speech board that sparked public mistrust.
Quick as she came, the Mary Poppins of Disinformation unfurled her umbrella and floated away to her next job, nannying another nation of children who had the wrong ideas. Nina Jankowicz, age 33, was supposed to lead the Department of Homeland Security’s new Disinformation Governance Board.
Only three weeks after that announcement, media reports say the board is being “paused” and Ms. Jankowicz has resigned. It isn’t difficult to see why. “You can just call me the Mary Poppins of disinformation,” she tweeted last year, with a video of herself singing modified song lyrics to “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.”
Who can forget the video, of the woman chosen by Biden to silence climate skeptics singing her version of Mary Poppins?
Gutteres one big hope for a major climate treaty to his name, a global carbon tax on shipping, was derailed by President Trump threatening economic retaliation against anyone who tried to impose such taxes on the USA.
UN Secretary General António Gutteres only has until the end of December to make his mark. I can’t see him achieving anything significant in the time remaining to him – I mean, if he hasn’t achieved anything in the last decade, why would that change in the next few months? But expect a few months of increasingly shrill UN headlines.
Hang on, maybe I spoke too soon – Will COP 31 “President of Negotiations” Chris Bowen save the day with a world changing green diplomatic breakthrough?
Researchers used deep learning on decades of seismic data to identify six previously undocumented heterogeneous zones (or strong scatterers) near Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB), roughly 2,900 km (about 1,800 miles) deep.
The study presents the most comprehensive global map to date of small-scale seismic scatterers near Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB, ~2,900 km depth). It does this by systematically detecting and analyzing PKP precursors—faint seismic signals that arrive slightly before the main PKP/PKIKP core phases.
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Researchers used deep learning on decades of seismic data to identify six previously undocumented heterogeneous zones (or strong scatterers) near Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB), roughly 2,900 km (about 1,800 miles) deep.
The work, led by scientists including Yurui Guan and colleagues at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, was published in 2026 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (Guan et al.).
It analyzes PKP precursors—faint seismic signals that arrive slightly ahead of the main PKP/PKIKP waves. These precursors arise when seismic waves from large earthquakes scatter off small-scale irregularities (heterogeneities) just above the CMB.
A supervised deep-learning system (combined with iterative human-guided optimization) processed more than 2 million vertical-component waveforms from earthquakes (typically Mw ≥ 6.0) recorded between about 1990 and 2024.
It automatically detected roughly 174,929–175,000 high-quality PKP precursor signals—more than ten times the total from all previous global studies combined. This dramatically improved sampling density and coverage.
Earlier maps showed relatively sparse, isolated scattering patches. The expanded dataset reveals many of these connecting into broader, continuous belts or bands in the lowermost mantle.
The analysis independently confirmed known scattering regions and, for the first time, highlighted six new high-potential strong-scattering zones (labeled B1–B6 in some reports). These lie in previously undersampled areas, including regions beneath high-latitude Eurasia, Central Asia, the South Atlantic, parts of the circum-Antarctic domain, and other locations.
These small-scale structures act as “deep-seated scatterers” that affect how seismic waves travel.
Possible origins (within the study’s interpretive limits) include remnants of multi-episode subducted slabs (ancient oceanic crust and related material dragged into the deep mantle), localized partial melting, mineral phase transitions under extreme pressure/temperature, and interactions with larger known features such as large low-shear-velocity provinces (LLVPs, the continent-sized “blobs” under Africa and the Pacific) or ultra-low-velocity zones (ULVZs).
The CMB is a critical interface for heat transfer and material exchange between the mantle and core.
Mapping these fine-scale heterogeneities improves understanding of mantle convection, possible plume roots, chemical cycling, and how deep processes may ultimately influence surface phenomena such as volcanism and tectonics. The six new zones are flagged as priority targets for future multi-phase seismic imaging and other studies.
Global Distribution of PKP Precursors Derived From Three Decades of Seismic Data With Deep Learning
“Global Distribution of PKP Precursors Derived From Three Decades of Seismic Data With Deep Learning” is a 2026 research article by Yurui Guan and colleagues (primarily from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences).
The study presents the most comprehensive global map to date of small-scale seismic scatterers near Earth’s core-mantle boundary (CMB, ~2,900 km depth). It does this by systematically detecting and analyzing PKP precursors—faint seismic signals that arrive slightly before the main PKP/PKIKP core phases. These precursors are generated when seismic waves scatter off fine-scale lateral heterogeneities (compositional or thermal variations) in the lowermost mantle.
Methods and data:
Researchers combined supervised deep learning with iterative human-guided optimization.
They processed over 2 million vertical-component waveforms from earthquakes with magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 recorded between 1990 and 2024.
The system automatically identified 174,929 high-quality PKP precursor signals—roughly an order of magnitude more than all previous global compilations combined. (Related conference abstracts sometimes cite slightly different totals, such as ~227,000, depending on quality thresholds.)
They introduced a dual-probability framework that integrates:
Precursor occurrence probability (how consistently signals appear in a region).
Scatterer location probability (likely positions of the scattering features).
This framework evaluates the spatial stability of observations and helps pinpoint localized strong scatterers.
Key results:
Sampling density and geographic coverage improved dramatically compared with earlier manual or smaller-scale studies.
Previously isolated scattering patches (e.g., beneath the Pan-American region) now appear connected into continuous bands or belts.
The expanded dataset confirms known scattering regions associated with deep anomalies and, for the first time, identifies six high-potential strong-scattering zones in previously undersampled areas. These include regions beneath the South Atlantic, high-latitude Eurasia, Central Asia, and circum-Antarctic domains.
Small-scale scatterers occur in both high-velocity and low-velocity domains of the lower mantle, indicating diverse origins that are not limited to the edges of large low-shear-velocity provinces (LLVPs).
Possible sources of the heterogeneities include remnants of multi-episode subducted slabs, localized partial melting, mineral phase transitions, and interactions with larger-scale features such as LLVPs or ultra-low-velocity zones (ULVZs). The results underscore the complexity of the lowermost mantle and provide prioritized targets for future multi-phase joint inversions and high-resolution imaging of CMB structure.
This work advances understanding of mantle convection, core-mantle interactions, heat and material exchange, and the potential links between deep-Earth features and surface processes. Related presentations (e.g., at EGU 2026) under titles such as “Global Mapping of Small-Scale Heterogeneities at the Core-Mantle Boundary” describe the same dataset and findings.
Provided: Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract
Small-scale lateral heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle are crucial for understanding mantle convection and core-mantle interactions. Owing to their high sensitivity to fine scatterers, PKP precursors provide a powerful probe of deep Earth heterogeneities. However, manual identification of these precursors is inefficient, subjective, and insufficient for vast global seismic data sets. Here, we integrate deep learning with iterative manual optimization to process over 2 million waveforms from earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0) between 1990 and 2024, automatically identifying 174,929 precursors, an order of magnitude more than prior data sets, to build the most comprehensive global map of potential scattering distributions. We propose a dual-probability framework integrating precursor occurrence and scatterer location probabilities to assess the global spatial stability of precursor observations and to constrain the probable locations of localized strong scatterers. By applying this extensive catalog within the dual-probability framework, we achieved an order-of-magnitude improvement in global sampling density and a substantial expansion of spatial coverage over previous individual-detection studies, connecting once-isolated sampling zones (e.g., beneath Pan-America) into continuous bands. Cross-validation with independent seismic phases confirms the robust embedding of multiple ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZs) within diverse velocity heterogeneity backgrounds, suggesting that these structures represent thermochemical piles shaped by some combination of multi-episode subducted slab remnants, localized partial melting, and interactions with large low-velocity provinces (LLVPs). Extension to undersampled regions reveals, for the first time, six high-potential scattering zones, laying the groundwork for prioritized target areas in subsequent multi-phase joint inversions and fine-scale imaging of core-mantle boundary (CMB) heterogeneity.
The sun is cheap in the Pilbara, but telecoms, food, water, air conditioning, houses, and lakes are not. Nor are 5,000-kilometer subsea cables, or 1,000 miles of transmission lines to major population centers.
The size of Australia’s largest renewable energy project has been cut by nearly half, and the remote Pilbara site will no longer produce ammonia from green hydrogen.
Australia map with solar panels inserted on a whith background
Unfortunately the same thing that makes a site perfect for solar power is exactly the reason that almost no one wants to live there, it’s baking hot, waterless, barely inhabited and thus “available” for acres of solar panels. (Everything that makes it good for solar and wind power makes it horrible for the economics of collecting all that “free” energy). Let’s just say wages need to be high. The sun is cheap in the Pilbara, but telecoms, food, water, air conditioning, houses, and lakes are not. Nor are 5,000 kilometer subsea cables, or 1,000 miles of transmission lines to major population centers.
BP abandoned the project a year ago, following in the footsteps of Vestas, Macquarie and others that had abandoned it before BP did. In January our government gave it $22 million to study how to make hydrogen projects work in the Pilbara. Pfft, went that cash.
Now the owners have downgraded the 26GW venture back to a 15GW project that was approved in 2020. Forget the big export plans, now they just hope to power, you guessed it, some miners and data-centers in Port Hedland with a small 1 GW starter. Ammonia, may or may not be produced closer to Port Hedland.
The size of Australia’s largest renewable energy project has been cut by nearly half, and the remote Pilbara site will no longer produce ammonia from green hydrogen.
The company spokeswoman said the project strategy subsequently evolved toward supplying renewable electricity and hydrogen to support industry in the Pilbara, including green iron, mining decarbonisation and critical minerals processing.
There is still just that small detail about needing 550 km of high voltage power lines to reach the customers:
To succeed, the project needs the Pilbara Green Link to connect AREH and the Pilbara power network with 550km of high-voltage 330kV transmission lines.
Perry Williams and Nick Evans in The Australian explain that BP abandoned it because customers just weren’t willing to pay:
The oil major’s country president Lucy Nation said at the time its most likely customers — widely understood to include large iron ore miners operating in the Pilbara and countries such as Japan — had significantly delayed plans to commit to long-term offtake agreements.
And Chris Bowen’s Big Hydrogen plan has reached 0.2% of it’s target!
Released in 2024 by Energy Minister Chris Bowen, the National Hydrogen Strategy set out the government’s ambition to boost production of renewable-generated hydrogen at a competitive cost, setting a target of 500,000 tonnes by 2030.
This was once a giant flagship proposal that pulled in not just BP but InterContinental Energy, CWP Global, and Macquaries Green Investment Group. Scores of engineers and entrepeneurs must have tried to make the numbers work as they chased the solar-wind-hydrogen fairy hob goblin.
Yet here we are again, like an impossible Escher puzzle. The illusion of “free energy” beguiles the human brain but the cost of collecting, storing and transporting the invisible fire fools us every time. We just have to find an empty first world desert near the equator and 10 million people, and an endlessly replenishing hydroelectricity dam and it will all be perfect.
The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots. It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for the Great Energy Transition.
The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean. Each month and year exposes again the growing disconnect between the real world and the Zero Carbon zealots. It is as though the anti-hydrocarbon band wagon hopes to drown out the data contradicting their justification for the Great Energy Transition. Yes, there was warming from an El Nino buildup coincidental with North Atlantic warming, but no basis to blame it on CO2.
As an overview consider how recent rapid cooling completely overcame the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016). The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one were gone as of April 2021, again in November 2021, and in February and June 2022 At year end 2022 and continuing into 2023 global temp anomaly matched or went lower than average since 1995, an ENSO neutral year. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020). Then there was an usual El Nino warming spike of uncertain cause, unrelated to steadily rising CO2, which dropped back toward normal values. Now in August 2026 there is again an El Nino peaking, albeit at a lower level.
For reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa. While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~66 ppm, an 18% increase.
Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.
The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby. These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event. The exhibit shows since 1947 GMT warmed by 0.8 C, from 13.9 to 14.7, as estimated by Hadcrut4. This resulted from three natural warming events involving ocean cycles. The most recent rise 2013-16 lifted temperatures by 0.2C. Previously the 1997-98 El Nino produced a plateau increase of 0.4C. Before that, a rise from 1977-81 added 0.2C to start the warming since 1947.
Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate. On the contrary, all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief events associated with oceanic cycles. And in 2024 we saw an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures, now dropping well below its peak.
Chris Schoeneveld has produced a similar graph to the animation above, with a temperature series combining HadCRUT4 and UAH6. H/T WUWT
August 2026 UAH Temps: Ocean and Land Warms in All Regions
With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea. While you heard a lot about 2020-21 temperatures matching 2016 as the highest ever, that spin ignores how fast the cooling set in. The UAH data analyzed below shows that warming from the last El Nino had fully dissipated with chilly temperatures in all regions. After a warming blip in 2022, land and ocean temps dropped again with 2023 starting below the mean since 1995. Spring and Summer 2023 saw a series of warmings, continuing into 2024 peaking in April, then cooling off to a low in January 2026. Since then El Nino in the Tropics has risen sharply pulling up all regions despite a drop in July.
UAH has updated their TLT (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for August 2026. Due to one satellite drifting more than can be corrected, the dataset has been recalibrated and retitled as version 6.1 Graphs here contain this updated 6.1 data. Posts on their reading of ocean air temps this month are ahead the update from HadSST4 I posted recently on July 2026 El Nino Spikes SSTs Warming, These posts have a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.
Sometimes air temps over land diverge from ocean air changes. 2025 showed a sharp contrast between land and sea, first with ocean air temps falling in January recovering in February. Then in November and December SH land temps spiked while ocean temps showed litle change. In February 2026 NH land temps doubled, from Dec. 0.53C up to 1.14C last month. Despite SH land changing little, and Tropical land cooling, the Global land anomaly jumped up from 0.53 to 0.93C. That reversed in March with both NH land and Global land anomaly back down to 0.63C. That cooling offset SH Ocean warming doubling from 0.19C to 0.38C. In May was a warming spike in Tropics and SH ocean air while NH ocean air was flat. At the same time, Land air temps warmed in Tropics and NH while dropping in SH. The unusual end result for May was Global, Land and Ocean air temp anomalies all showing the same 0.53C. In June and July there were ups and down, and now in August an upward bump in NH and SH, both land and sea.
Note: UAH has shifted their baseline from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 beginning with January 2021. v6.1 data was recalibrated also starting with 2021. In the charts below, the trends and fluctuations remain the same but the anomaly values changed with the baseline reference shift.
Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system. Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy. Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements. In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates. Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.
Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST. Thus cooling oceans portend cooling land air temperatures to follow. He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months. This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?
After a change in priorities, updates are now exclusive to HadSST4. For comparison we can also look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6.1 which are now posted for August 2026. The temperature record is derived from microwave sounding units (MSU) on board satellites like the one pictured above. Recently there was a change in UAH processing of satellite drift corrections, including dropping one platform which can no longer be corrected. The graphs below are taken from the revised and current dataset.
The UAH dataset includes temperature results for air above the oceans, and thus should be most comparable to the SSTs. There is the additional feature that ocean air temps avoid Urban Heat Islands (UHI). The graph below shows monthly anomalies for ocean air temps since January 2015.
After sharp cooling everywhere in January 2023, there was a remarkable spiking of Tropical ocean temps from -0.5C up to + 1.2C in January 2024. The rise was matched by other regions in 2024, such that the Global anomaly peaked at 0.86C in April. Since then all regions have cooled down sharply to a low of 0.27C in January. During 2025 there were ups and downs, but in November/December all regions were cooler, led by a sharp drop in SH bringing the Global ocean anomaly down to 0.02C. In 2026, ocean warming was evident, with Tropics and SH pulling up Global ocean air temps despite little rise in NH ocean. Now in June and July that has reversed with SH cooling and pulling down the Global ocean anomaly, even despite tropical warming. Now in August all regions are up again, near summer of 2024 values, though Tropics rose only slightly.
Land Air Temperatures Tracking in Seesaw Pattern
We sometimes overlook that in climate temperature records, while the oceans are measured directly with SSTs, land temps are measured only indirectly. The land temperature records at surface stations sample air temps at 2 meters above ground. UAH gives tlt anomalies for air over land separately from ocean air temps. The graph updated for Augusr is below.
Here we have fresh evidence of the greater volatility of the Land temperatures, along with extraordinary departures by SH land. The seesaw pattern in Land temps is similar to ocean temps 2021-22, except that SH is the outlier, hitting bottom in January 2023. Then exceptionally SH goes from -0.6C up to 1.4C in September 2023 and 1.8C in August 2024, with a large drop in between. In November, SH and the Tropics pulled the Global Land anomaly further down despite a bump in NH land temps. February showed a sharp drop in NH land air temps from 1.07C down to 0.56C, pulling the Global land anomaly downward from 0.9C to 0.6C. Some ups and downs followed with returns close to February values in August. A remarkable spike in October was completely reversed in November/December, along with NH dropping sharply bringing the Global Land anomaly down to 0.52C, half of its peak value of 1.17C 09/2024.
In 2026 January and February Global land rebounded up to 1.14C, led by a NH warming spike. That NH spike was reversed in March and April back down to 0.43C. In June land temps in SH plunged nearly 0.6C down to 0.2C, pulling Global land anomaly down more than 0.1C. July and August saw Global land temps up again with warming in all regions.
The Bigger Picture UAH Global Since 1980
The chart shows monthly Global Land and Ocean anomalies starting 01/1980 to present. The average monthly anomaly is -0.02 for this period of more than four decades. The graph shows the 1998 El Nino after which the mean resumed, and again after the smaller 2010 event. The 2016 El Nino matched 1998 peak and in addition NH after effects lasted longer, followed by the NH warming 2019-20. An upward bump in 2021 was reversed with temps having returned close to the mean as of 2/2022. March and April brought warmer Global temps, later reversed
With the sharp drops in Nov., Dec. and January 2023 temps, there was no increase over 1980. Then in 2023 the buildup to the October/November peak exceeded the sharp April peak of the El Nino 1998 event. It also surpassed the February peak in 2016. In 2024 March and April took the Global anomaly to a new peak of 0.94C. The cool down started with May dropping to 0.9C, later months declined steadily dropping. to 0.3C in December. In 2026 the global anomaly was little changed through April, then rose to a new peak of 0.68C in August.
The graph reminds of another chart showing the abrupt ejection of humid air from Hunga Tonga eruption.
TLTs include mixing above the oceans and probably some influence from nearby more volatile land temps. Clearly NH and Global land temps have been dropping in a seesaw pattern, nearly 1C lower than the 2016 peak. Since the ocean has 1000 times the heat capacity as the atmosphere, that cooling is a significant driving force. TLT measures started the recent cooling later than SSTs from HadSST4, but are now showing the same pattern. Despite the three El Ninos, their warming had not persisted prior to 2023, and without them it would probably have cooled since 1995. Of course, the future has not yet been written.
Rujm el-Hiri (also known as Gilgal Refaim or the “Wheel of Giants”), a large prehistoric stone complex of concentric basalt rings in the Golan Heights.
Note that a separate, more precisely dated ~6,000- 6,200-year-old (around 4000- 3900 BCE) “megastructure” from the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture has also drawn recent attention: a large (~350 m²) communal building with an oak floor at the Stăuceni- Holm settlement in northeastern Romania.
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Rujm el- Hiri (also known as Gilgal Refaim or the “Wheel of Giants”), a large prehistoric stone complex of concentric basalt rings in the Golan Heights.
It consists of (typically described as) five concentric circles of thousands of smaller uncut basalt stones (not massive megaliths like Stonehenge), with a total estimated weight over 40,000 tons.
The outermost ring is more than 500 feet (roughly 150-160 meters) across; a central tumulus/mound (about 15-16 feet / 5 meters high) contains a chamber or passage roughly 20 feet long.
From the ground it can look unremarkable or like scattered stone heaps, but aerial views reveal the clear circular “bull’s- eye” pattern. It was essentially invisible to modern notice until aerial surveys after Israel took control of the Golan Heights in 1967.
Dating relies mainly on limited pottery sherds, flint tools, and some OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) results rather than abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating.
Estimates generally place the main construction in the late Chalcolithic to Early Bronze Age, beginning as early as ~3500 BCE (or roughly 5,000- 5,500 years ago), with possible later additions or use into the Bronze Age.
Some evidence has suggested parts could be older.
No written records or clear oral traditions identify the builders; theories have included local Chalcolithic/Early Bronze Age communities (possibly related to nearby settlements) or groups with the organizational capacity to mobilize significant labor (estimates have run to tens or hundreds of thousands of workdays).
The Arabic name means roughly “stone heap of the wild cat”; the Hebrew name evokes biblical “giants” (Rephaim), but neither solves the origin question.
Excavations and surveys over decades have yielded few artifacts, leaving the site enigmatic. It is sometimes compared to Stonehenge in public discussion for its scale and mystery, though the construction style (piled smaller stones in rings) and cultural context differ.
Note that a separate, more precisely dated ~6,000- 6,200-year-old (around 4000- 3900 BCE) “megastructure” from the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture has also drawn recent attention: a large (~350 m²) communal building with an oak floor at the Stăuceni- Holm settlement in northeastern Romania.
It is one of only a handful of excavated examples of its type from that culture and sits prominently near a settlement entrance amid smaller houses, raising questions about social organization in relatively egalitarian early farming communities. The user’s phrasing matches recent popular coverage of the Golan Heights site, however.
The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture and the builders of Rujm el- Hiri in the Golan Heights were two completely separate prehistoric societies. There is no archaeological evidence that Cucuteni-Trypillia people ever reached, settled in, or significantly influenced the Golan Heights.
Key differences
Aspect
Cucuteni-Trypillia
Rujm el-Hiri (Golan Heights)
Location
Romania, Moldova, Ukraine (forest-steppe)
Golan Heights (southern Levant)
Distance
—
~1,500–1,800 km apart
Main period
~4800- 3000/2800 BCE
Mainly ~3500- 3000 BCE (Chalcolithic- Early Bronze Age)
Both cultures existed in roughly the same broad time window (late 5th- 4th millennium BCE) and both produced impressive large- scale constructions.
This has occasionally led to superficial comparisons in popular articles, but archaeologists treat them as independent developments:
Cucuteni-Trypillia grew out of earlier Neolithic farming traditions in the Carpathian- Dnieper region.
The Golan Heights megalithic structures (including Rujm el-Hiri) belong to the local Levantine Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age cultural sphere, related to other stone monuments and settlements in the southern Levant.
No migration route, shared pottery styles, genetic evidence, or material culture links connect the two regions in a way that would indicate Cucuteni-Trypillia people moved south into the Golan Heights.
In short: the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture stayed in Eastern Europe. Rujm el- Hiri was built by local Levantine communities. They are contemporary but unrelated.
AI generated by Grok
Rujm el-Hiri (also known as Gilgal Refaim) and climate impacts involve the environmental context of the southern Levant / Golan Heights during the late Chalcolithic to Early Bronze Age (roughly 3500- 2500 BCE or slightly earlier/later depending on dating), when the concentric stone circles were built and used.
The Golan Heights and broader southern Levant experienced Mediterranean climate conditions (wet winters, dry summers) throughout the mid- to- late Holocene.
Pollen records from nearby sites such as Birkat Ram (northern Golan crater lake) indicate that the area remained under Mediterranean influence with no extreme, long- term shifts to full aridity over the past ~6,500 years. The mountainous topography around Mt. Hermon helped buffer large- scale precipitation fluctuations that affected drier parts of the Near East more severely.
Broader Levantine records (Dead Sea levels, speleothems, Lake Kinneret/Sea of Galilee pollen) show:
Relatively wetter/warmer conditions in parts of the early- to- mid Holocene that supported early agricultural and pastoral economies.
A gradual trend toward drier conditions in the mid- Holocene, with aridization becoming more pronounced later (peaking toward the early 2nd millennium BCE in some reconstructions).
Multi- centennial fluctuations rather than a single catastrophic event during the main period of Rujm el-Hiri’s construction and primary use.
The famous 4.2 ka event (~2200 BCE), a severe multi-year drought linked to societal stresses across the Near East, post- dates the main building phase of Rujm el-Hiri and is more relevant to later Bronze Age changes.
Direct evidence tying climate specifically to the monument’s construction, use, or abandonment is limited because the site itself has very few organic remains suitable for detailed environmental reconstruction, and the local microclimate is harsh. However, several connections have been proposed:
Favorable conditions for construction and use: The wetter phases of the late Chalcolithic / Early Bronze Age supported mixed agro- pastoral economies in the region. Rujm el-Hiri and similar stone circles are often located near seasonal water sources or streams. This suggests the monument (and related structures) may have functioned within systems of seasonal herding, resource management, territorial marking, or communal gatherings that depended on reliable (if seasonal) water and pasture.
Later aridization and decline: Some researchers suggest that progressive drying in the mid- to- late Holocene contributed to changes in lifestyle across the region, including reduced intensity of use or shifts away from the cultural practices associated with large megalithic constructions like Rujm el- Hiri and surrounding monuments. Drought stress could have encouraged more mobile pastoral strategies and affected settlement patterns.
Landscape and human impact: Pollen data from the northern Golan show strong human signals (e.g., olive cultivation and other anthropogenic indicators) during the Chalcolithic- Early Bronze Age, followed by declines in agriculture at the end of the Early Bronze Age. Climate may have interacted with human land use, but the Golan’s buffered environment means local vegetation remained relatively resilient compared with more arid zones farther south or east.
Climate provided the broader environmental stage rather than a single decisive “cause.” Relatively favorable Mediterranean conditions in the relevant millennia allowed agro- pastoral communities to invest in large communal/ritual monuments such as Rujm el- Hiri.
Gradual aridization trends later in the Holocene likely contributed to shifts in settlement, economy, and the intensity of monument use, alongside social, political, and cultural factors.
The Golan’s topography appears to have moderated the most extreme climate swings seen elsewhere in the Near East.
Research continues to integrate remote sensing, paleoenvironmental proxies, and archaeological data to refine these relationships.
The monument’s exact function remains debated (ritual, calendrical, territorial, seasonal assembly, or multi-purpose), so climate impacts are best understood as influencing the societies that built and used it rather than determining the stones themselves.
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Cucuteni-Trypillia culture (also called Cucuteni-Trypillia or Trypillia- Cucuteni) was one of the most remarkable prehistoric societies of Europe. It flourished from roughly 4800 to 3000/2800 BCE across a vast area of Eastern Europe that today includes northeastern Romania, Moldova, and western to central Ukraine.
It is best known for its enormous planned settlements (including the famous “mega-sites”), sophisticated painted pottery, large communal buildings (megastructures), and relatively egalitarian social organization at a time when many other regions were still small-scale farming villages.
The culture is conventionally divided into phases:
Early (Pre-Cucuteni / Trypillia A): ~4800- 4500/4400 BCE
Late (Cucuteni B / Trypillia CI- CII): ~4000/3800- 3000/2800 BCE
It occupied the fertile forest- steppe zone between the Carpathian Mountains and the Dnieper River, taking advantage of rich chernozem soils ideal for agriculture.
Settlements ranged from small villages to enormous “mega- sites” that rank among the largest prehistoric population centers in the world before the rise of Mesopotamian cities.
The biggest examples (e.g., Talianki, Maidanetske, Nebelivka, Dobrovody) covered 100- 450 hectares and may have housed 10,000- 30,000 people at their peak (estimates vary).
Typical layout features:
Concentric rings or circuits of houses around a large open central space
Radial streets and wide “ring corridors”
Surrounding ditches and palisades
Standardized rectangular houses (often two- story, timber-framed with wattle- and daub walls and clay floors)
Houses were frequently burned (possibly deliberately after one generation), leaving distinctive burned- daub remains visible in geomagnetic surveys.
Megastructures, oversized buildings several times larger than ordinary houses (100- 1,200 m²), stood in prominent public locations (near entrances, plazas, or ring corridors). These are widely interpreted as communal assembly halls used for meetings, decision-making, feasting, storage, craft activities, and rituals. Only a handful have been fully excavated (including the recent ~350 m² example at Stăuceni- Holm in Romania, dated around 4000- 3900 BCE).
The economy was based on mixed farming and animal husbandry:
Cultivation of cereals (emmer, einkorn, barley) and especially pulses
Cattle, pigs, sheep/goats, and some hunting
Sophisticated practices such as intensive manuring of fields
Isotope and archaeobotanical studies show advanced, integrated agricultural systems capable of supporting large populations.
The culture produced some of the most beautiful prehistoric pottery in Europe:
Finely made, thin- walled vessels painted with intricate geometric, spiral, and zoomorphic designs in red, black, and white
Clay figurines (especially female “goddess” or fertility figures)
House models, tools of flint, bone, and copper (in later phases)
Copper metallurgy appeared in the later stages, though metal objects remained relatively rare.
One of the most intriguing aspects is the apparent lack of strong hierarchy.
Houses were generally similar in size, rich elite burials and palaces are almost absent, and wealth differences appear limited.
Researchers debate whether this reflects a genuinely egalitarian or “corporate” society that managed large populations through nested communal institutions (neighborhood and settlement-level assembly houses) rather than powerful chiefs or kings.
The megastructures are central to this discussion.
Mega -sites largely disappeared around 3600 BCE. Possible contributing factors include:
Climatic cooling and drying (Sub-Boreal shift) that stressed intensive agriculture
Internal social or organizational challenges of maintaining very large aggregations
Increasing interactions with steppe pastoralist groups
Gradual shift toward more mobile or pastoral economies
The culture did not vanish abruptly; later groups transformed and interacted with incoming steppe populations, contributing to subsequent Bronze Age developments.
Cucuteni- Trypillia represents one of Europe’s earliest experiments with large- scale, planned settlement and complex social organization without writing or clear centralized authority.
It challenges traditional narratives that equate “civilization” only with cities, states, and hierarchical elites.
Ongoing research using geomagnetics, isotopes, aDNA, and paleoenvironmental data continue to refine our understanding of how these communities lived, governed themselves, and ultimately changed.
Cucuteni-Trypillia megastructures and climate impacts are linked mainly through the broader environmental context of the culture’s settlements and mega- sites, rather than any direct evidence that climate specifically dictated the design or function of the large communal buildings themselves.
The culture (ca. 4800- 3000/2800 BCE) flourished across the forest- steppe of modern Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine during relatively favorable mid- Holocene conditions, warmer and moister than later periods in parts of the region, supporting intensive agriculture on fertile chernozem soils. Mega- sites (often with megastructures) peaked around 4100- 3600 BCE.
Paleoclimate reconstructions show mean annual temperatures roughly 5-12°C and precipitation 377- 810 mm/year across the culture’s range, with variations by phase and location. Early-to-middle phases occupied somewhat cooler/drier niches in places; later groups expanded into steppe areas with broader ecological flexibility. Some studies note increasing temperature seasonality and precipitation variability over time.
Rapid Climate Change (RCC) intervals and Bond events (e.g., around 6000- 5000 cal BP / roughly related to Tripolye BII) have been correlated by some researchers with settlement shifts, including migrations into the Southern Bug- Dnieper interfluve and the formation of giant settlements.
Cooler and drier conditions may have reduced carrying capacity in western areas, prompting agglomeration farther east as an adaptive response rather than collapse.
Black Sea level fluctuations (as a proxy for regional temperature/aridity) have also been linked to middle-to- late Tripolye movements during cooler and drier phases.
Around or after 3500 BCE (and more markedly toward 3200 BCE into the Sub- Boreal), a shift to cooler and drier conditions is widely noted.
This is sometimes described as contributing to the decline of large sedentary farming communities, with agriculture becoming less reliable (analogous to severe drought stress). Pastoralism (more resilient in arid conditions) became advantageous, facilitating interactions or integration with steppe groups such as Yamnaya- related populations. Some accounts frame this as a major environmental transformation that altered soils, flora, fauna, and lifestyles, favoring mobile herding over dense agrarian settlements.
Multi- proxy studies (pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, microcharcoal, sedimentology) at sites like Nebelivka show surprisingly moderate local human impact during mega- site occupation, despite estimated large populations.
There is limited evidence of major deforestation, massive cereal peaks, heavy erosion, or sustained fire regimes tightly tied to the peak occupation. Pre- and post- occupation signals of cultivation and fire can be stronger in some records. This supports models of lower- intensity land use, possibly non-permanent or seasonally varying populations, or highly sustainable practices rather than overexploitation leading to environmental collapse.
Isotope studies of crops and animals indicate sophisticated, integrated systems (intensive manuring of pulses with cattle dung from managed pastures) that sustained mega- populations under the prevailing conditions. Some δ¹³C patterns may reflect broader climatic signals (e.g., slightly warmer temperatures during agglomeration phases). Water resources near sites could have been strained by settlement demand, but overall ecological footprints appear lighter than maximalist population estimates would predict.
There is little direct evidence tying climate fluctuations to the architecture, placement, or purpose of megastructures (the oversized communal/assembly buildings). These are interpreted primarily through social organization, integrative spaces for decision-making, feasting, processing, and ritual in relatively egalitarian or nested community systems that helped manage large aggregations.
Climate likely influenced the viability of the large settlements that contained them (via agricultural productivity and resource availability), and thus indirectly the need for or sustainability of such communal infrastructure.
During drier and cooler phases, the organizational advantages of megastructures (coordination, redistribution, social cohesion) may have been particularly valuable, or ultimately insufficient,as conditions shifted toward pastoral adaptations.
The fading of mega- sites around 3600 BCE and the culture’s later transformation are multi- causal.
Climate stress (cooling and drying, reduced carrying capacity) is one proposed factor, but researchers also emphasize internal social and organizational challenges, possible loss of prestige of the mega- site model, interactions with steppe groups, and other dynamics.
Pure environmental determinism is often rejected; the culture persisted in various forms, and ecological records do not show catastrophic local degradation at key sites. Some view agglomeration itself as a resilient response to earlier climate pressures.
In short, climate shaped the environmental stage on which Cucuteni-Trypillia societies built and eventually moved beyond their mega- sites and megastructures, but social organization, agricultural innovation, and cultural choices were equally (or more) central to the story. Ongoing paleoenvironmental work continues to refine these links.
Refiners are set to reap stronger profits on the global diesel shortage, Goldman Sachs has said, revising its earlier profit forecast to double the total profits that refining companies would make from the squeeze.
“Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a note, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally,” they added
Global diesel stocks are running low due to refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia. According to Goldman’s commodity team, refinery outages are currently 60% higher than the seasonal average, and the tightness in diesel will extend into next year.
…
In Europe, the situation is additionally complicated by a shortage of refineries, as EU climate regulations forced energy companies to shut down refining capacity in anticipation of demand destruction that has yet to materialize.
The Iran war and Ukraine conflict might have interrupted Western access to Middle Eastern and Russian refining capacity, but our lack of resilience to handle such an interruption, the lack of Western refinery capacity, is a self inflicted failure.
Fuel shortages couldn’t have come at a worse time. Diesel prices are strongly tied to food prices, or in the worst cases, food availability.
A friend who runs a farm in NSW has told me that lots of people he knows cut back on planting because with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices, they couldn’t see a path to making a profit. How many other farmers throughout the world are making similar choices?
President Trump’s efforts to revive the USA’s fossil fuel industry may help to buffer the USA from the worst of the coming diesel supply shock, except in places like California which are still doing everything in their power to wreck their own economies with European style climate regulations. But Europe, whose economies are already stretched to the brink by the Ukraine war, skyrocketing government debt and crippling regulations on farming and industry, they could be in for some real hardship.
Naturally all this will be blamed on the coming “super El-Nino” – you can already see the green establishment laying the groundwork for a climate narrative interpretation of any Fall food shortages. But make no mistake, much of the increase in food prices which a spike in diesel prices could trigger will be because the irresponsible climate idiocy our politicians destroyed the economic viability of refining oil in Western countries.
The new “Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence: 4th Edition” from the Federal Judicial Center has a chapter “How Science Works” that was written by a climate alarmist, and it shows.
Another chapter — “Reference Guide on Climate Science” — was withdrawn after a letter from 27 state attorneys general pointed out that it was pure alarmist advocacy.
The new “Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence: 4th Edition” from the Federal Judicial Center has a chapter “How Science Works” that was written by a climate alarmist, and it shows. It is trying to sell the nonsense that science is all about consensus, when it is really all about debate. Nor is there a consensus supporting climate alarmism.
Another chapter — “Reference Guide on Climate Science” — was withdrawn after a letter from 27 state attorneys general pointed out that it was pure alarmist advocacy. The “How Science Works” chapter should be withdrawn for the same reason.
The “How Science Works” chapter is pages 47 to 111 in Volume one.
One of the two authors, Professor Michael Weisberg is a leading alarmist activist. His university website calls him a “climate diplomat” because he is active in UN climate negotiations including the infamous “loss and damage” reparations funding scheme.
“How Science Works” gets off to a quick bad start. The very first paragraph contains this gem of alarmism: “…. public relations campaigns have misled the public about the true state of scientific consensus regarding certain scientific issues.” Citation: Naomi Oreskes & Erik M. Conway, “Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming” (2010)
This ridiculous Oreskes book is a pillar of climate alarmism. So, the bogus thrust of the chapter is that climate alarmism is a consensus and skepticism is a public relations stunt. This is pure advocacy.
Most of the rest of the chapter is a long, false claim that science works by consensus. It mostly works by debate, as scientists struggle to explain how the natural world works. These proposed explanations are debated by the scientific community, sometimes in complex ways and often for a long time without resolution.
Consensus does have a very long-term role to play because science is an ever-growing body of knowledge. But scientific activity is mostly a lively marketplace of argument.
The fundamental scientific method is very simple. Given some observations people propose various hypotheses to explain them. These hypotheses are then tested against additional observations. In theory, if the testing observations do not support the hypothesis, it is rejected.
In modern science, this seemingly simple process can become very complex, especially when trying to explain complex natural systems. For example, individual scientists may perform just part of process. Then, too, observations are often “theory laden,” so they can be challenged. In addition, hypotheses can be very complex, making it hard to know where the error lies.
Not only are hypotheses and observations often debated, but these debates can also last a long time. In major cases, they lead to alternative schools of thought (which is where human caused climate change is today).
For example, the hot debate between particle and wave theories of light lasted over 200 years. The climate change debate is now well over 40 years old.
Note that you cannot see the debates using the journal literature because criticizing or disagreeing with another scientist is generally not allowed in journal articles. Articles just report specific research results. Of the 3 million or so articles published a year very few are likely to refer to the ongoing debates.
It used to be that the widespread debates were publicly invisible. They mostly occurred during conference presentation question periods or via personal correspondence. The rise of online debating of science has changed this a lot. Chatbots might be useful for finding these debates. For example, there are hundreds of distinct controversies in climate change science, many of which are publicly debated.
The unscientific term “consensus” occurs over 70 times in “How science works.” The key word “debate” occurs just four times near the end. Ironically, one of these is a statement that “in science, debates relating to scientific evidence generally play out over many years….”. Max Planck put it very nicely: “Your ideas will (only) be accepted when your students become journal editors.” The climate science debate has lasted even longer, so the claim of consensus is wildly false.
This chapter on “How science works” is basically a misleading attempt to advance the false claim that there is a consensus supporting climate alarmism. As such, it is political advocacy, not sound judicial guidance. The chapter should be removed just as the advocacy chapter on climate science has been removed.
When natural disaster strikes, climate charlatans pounce.
Climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann (of Climategate fame) wrote in the UK Guardian that Nepal’s flood reveals “the apocalyptic future that lies in store if we fail to take dramatic climate action.”
The executive director of the UN Green Climate Fund, Mafalda Duarte, shamelessly turned the tragedy into a call for cash, saying, “We see when there is will, that finance is mobilized to respond to emergencies. For some reason, we don’t see the same type of response to climate.”
Climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann (of Climategate fame) wrote in the UK Guardian that Nepal’s flood reveals “the apocalyptic future that lies in store if we fail to take dramatic climate action.”
The executive director of the UN Green Climate Fund, Mafalda Duarte, shamelessly turned the tragedy into a call for cash, saying, “We see when there is will, that finance is mobilized to respond to emergencies. For some reason, we don’t see the same type of response to climate.”
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal wants China, India, the U.S., and other industrialized nations to compensate Nepal financially, framing it as a matter of “moral liability.” He said Nepal “will turn this into an issue of justice in the international arena.” He added, “This is not about asking for aid; it is about the obligation of large nations.”
Nepal’s flash flood was not caused by your SUV or refrigerator.
CFACT’s Marc Morano and Chris Martz brought the receipts.
Marc posted at CFACT’s Climate Depot: “Climate narrative obliterated: Satellite images reveal massive bedrock collapse beneath glacier in Nepal — Turns out the avalanche was caused by the collapse of bedrock… not the glacier collapsing itself.”
CFACT meteorologist Chris Martz posted a video to X in which he describes a wall of water as high as the Statue of Liberty but notes that the tragedy was both natural and historically normal. Plate tectonics cause a great deal of seismic activity in the area, and dramatic avalanches occur frequently. This avalanche was accentuated by the weight of massive amounts of recent snow.
What happened in Nepal and Tibet was a genuine tragedy. The human toll is heartbreaking.
No amount of climate socialism, taxes, or mandating inefficient energy could have prevented this loss.
Exploiting human tragedies such as those that occurred in Nepal and Tibet in a bid to obtain wealth and power is utterly shameless.
The political talking point ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.
Reports of the devastation in Nepal following a massive landslide now indicate that the death toll from Wednesday’s devastating flash floods in Nepal and China has risen to 800, with around 3,000 people still missing.
The political talking point ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.
Reports of the devastation in Nepal following a massive landslide now indicate that the death toll from Wednesday’s devastating flash floods in Nepal and China has risen to 800, with around 3,000 people still missing.
Nepal’s disaster agency said Sunday the death toll had climbed to 788 with 2,502 missing, while Chinese authorities reported 16 deaths and 546 missing on the Chinese side of the border.
Poor weather and challenging terrain have hampered aerial rescue operations.
In Nuwakot, one of the Nepali districts devastated by the floods, helicopters resumed operations before noon Saturday after poor weather temporarily obstructed their activities. Some helicopters were loaded with boxes and bags of aid, including clothes, instant noodles, crackers and rice. Others returned from the flood-hit areas carrying survivors.
…More than 3,700 people have been rescued in Nepal so far, according to authorities there. Hundreds of the missing are foreigners who were in the area to work, trek or make a pilgrimage to a sacred peak on the Tibet side of the border.
Nepal’s deadly Himalayan flash flood this week has predictably produced a familiar ritual: before rescue crews had finished counting bodies, climate cultists and their political acolytes were already racing to slot the disaster into their favorite narrative. Outlets from the New York Times to CNN to Forbes rushed out pieces insisting that “climate change” primed the catastrophe.
Suddenly everyone became an expert on the Himalayan climate.
Climate change is leading to conditions that can destabilize high-mountain rock and ice, which may cause disasters such as the flood along the border between Nepal and Tibet, scientists say, though it might not be the sole trigger https://t.co/qS76HHtT5cpic.twitter.com/QlNuFJ9uWx
Three clear-eyed voices on X pushed back: Dr. Matthew Wielicki (Director – United States Global Change Research Program), meteorologist Chris Martz, and Jim Steele (ecologist and author of Landscapes & Cycles). They deserve amplification, not the usual media silence.
So, let’s take a deep dive into Himalayan geology and geography with them.
The flooding in Nepal and Tibet is devastating.
Hundreds of people have died in these catastrophic floods and over 2,000 are still missing.
No, President Trump. Climate change is not a hoax. It is causing devastating crises all over the planet.
The disaster began when an enormous chunk of a glacier on Langtang Lirung, high in the Himalayas, sheared off and slammed into the valley below with such force that it registered as a magnitude 5.2 seismic event, according to the US Geological Survey. The ice and rock mass blocked the Lhende Khola river, and when the makeshift dam gave way, it unleashed a wall of water, mud, and boulders the size of cars that buried villages downstream. Even the outlets pushing the climate narrative admit the actual trigger is still “under investigation” and that no formal attribution study has been done.
This newly surfaced video shows the landslide that occurred just a few hours after the main glacier collapse.
The event formed a barrier lake that dammed the Lhende Khola River along the Nepal–Tibet border. pic.twitter.com/U99m3uURaq
That inconvenient detail didn’t stop the parade of quotes about “what climate change looks like.” One geologist told CNN, “Whether this particular event can be tied to climate change or not, this is what we expect.” This is not science, but a talking point dressed up as science.
The mountains have been doing this for millions of years.
Meteorologist Chris Martz cut through the noise by noting that landslides and avalanches in Nepal have occurred for tens of millions of years, long before humans existed, let alone burned fossil fuels. As he noted, the V-shaped valleys carved through the region were carved by exactly these landslide-flood events at pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels, a geologic fact that climate cultists conveniently skip.
Long story short, this is BS.
Landslides / avalanches in Nepal have happened for tens of millions of years. In fact, floods associated with landslides are how the V-shaped valleys in the region were carved out millions of years ago at pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide… https://t.co/oud6rlrZqHpic.twitter.com/sRGsVHISIB
Geologist Dr. Matthew Wielicki, who has done fieldwork sitting above the Himalaya’s “enormous, deeply incised” river systems in Tibet, made the same point: This landscape is robustly geologically active on its own, independent of anything happening in the atmosphere.
I’ve spent many weeks doing fieldwork in Tibet, sitting above these enormous, deeply incised Himalayan river systems and seeing firsthand just how geologically active this landscape is.
So spare me the climate-change grift every time a natural disaster strikes.
— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) August 27, 2026
Both men are pointing to something the peer-reviewed record supports. The Himalaya is a young, still-rising mountain range, formed by the Indian plate colliding with Eurasia roughly 40 to 65 million years ago, and it remains one of the most tectonically active zones on Earth.
Research into the region’s landslide history documents “giant rock slope failures” tied to the North Himalayan Fault system going back tens of thousands of years, driven by the constant interplay between tectonic and glacial activity… not modern emissions.
In fact, Wielicki wrote a paper noting that southern Tibet rapidly eroded and exposed rock from about 17–16 million to 12–11 million years ago, probably because tectonic uplift and steep rivers drove intense erosion. Around 10 million years ago, enhanced uplift in the Himalayas (likely driven by crustal thickening and fault-related rock stacking) shifted drainage divides southward and diverted rivers away from southern Tibet. This tectonic restructuring strengthened the Himalayan rain barrier, dried southern Tibet, reduced river power, and largely shut down erosion there even as the mountain belt continued to develop.
In other words, this event is an example of Earth-caused climate change.
Rain, snow, and mountains that manufacture their own weather.
Another detail missing from the climate-panic coverage is that the Himalaya doesn’t just sit there passively, waiting to be affected by global climate. The mountains are so large that they actively create their own extreme weather.
Keep in mind that the Great Himalaya’s average high crest is about 3.8 miles high, with the iconic Mount Everest reaching roughly 5.5 miles.
The sheer height of these peaks forces monsoon moisture upward, and the precipitation released drives erosion and landslides for eons. Add seasonal snowmelt and near-vertical topography, and you have a landscape engineered by nature to periodically fail catastrophically, regardless of the level of carbon dioxide and with or without an added tenth of a degree of global average temperature.
Geothermal heat melts ice from below.
Where there is a collision of 2 tectonic plates, there is a great deal of geothermal heat that arises FROM THE SURFACE, not THE ATMOSPHERE. SUVs are not responsible for this heat. Furthermore, glacial forces themselves can elevate temperature.
However, on Langtang Lirung, at the 5200 meter elevation where the rock-ice block first separated to start the 2026 avalanche, the average summer temperature is still below freezing at -6°C to -8°C (21°F to 17°F). During the warmest summer period, mid-day averages reach 2°C to 6°C (36°F to 43°F) but night temperatures stay near -2°C to -5°C (28°F to 23°F). Furthermore, science suggests air temperatures are not affecting the surface ice.
The top few meters of a glacier, rapidly respond to air temperature, sunshine, and seasons. Nonetheless winter cold and summer warmth only penetrate about 10–20 m from the glaciers’ surface. Thus, changes in atmospheric temperature are unlikely to provide “lubricating” melt water in 200-meter thick glaciers. Below the shallow “seasonal layer,” temperature is steady and often close to the local mean annual air temperature, which again averages summer temperature below freezing at -6°C to -8°C (21°F to 17°F).
Still studies show the glacier-ground interface is almost always warmer than the ice above it for 3 main reasons: 1) Because ice is such a good insulator, the geothermal heat rising from Earth’s interior accumulates at the glacier’s bottom. 2) frictional heat from ice sliding over rock adds to the temperature. 3) Under thick ice, the melting point is lower due to pressure effects. So even if the surface is –30 °C or colder, the bed of a 2–3 km ice sheet can sit at or very near 0 °C. Global warming is not a factor.
How Grifters Twist Nepal’s Natural Glacier Avalanche to Blame Fossil Fuels.
Avalanches and earthquakes are relatively common in the Himalaya and recently drove Langtang Lirung’s glacier collapses. For example, on the south-facing side of Langtang Lirung, a 7.8 earthquake caused… pic.twitter.com/qrFLpV2WMR
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the regional scientific body actually based in Kathmandu, remarked that it’s simply “too early to determine what role climate change played in this specific event”. That’s the honest scientific position.
Everything past that point is ghoulish narrative laundering that uses dead villagers as a backdrop for a political talking point and ignores tens of millions of years of plate tectonics and its consequences, and completely dismisses well-established mountain-weather dynamics.
Salt may have amplified Earth’s descent into a “Snowball Earth” state around 700 million years ago through salt- albedo feedback, according to research published in Climate of the Past.
Cryogenian climate models investigate the extreme “Snowball Earth” glaciations of the Cryogenian Period (roughly 720–635 million years ago), particularly the long Sturtian (~717–660 Ma) and Marinoan (~645–635 Ma) events. These models explore how Earth could enter a near-global ice-covered state, the climate dynamics once frozen, and how it could escape that state.
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Salt may have amplified Earth’s descent into a “Snowball Earth” state around 700 million years ago through a salt- albedo feedback, according to research published in Climate of the Past.
During the Cryogenian Period (roughly 720- 635 million years ago), Earth experienced extreme glaciations in which ice advanced from the poles to the tropics, covering oceans and continents. Geological evidence includes glacial deposits at low latitudes.
The classic ice- albedo feedback is central to explanations: snow and ice reflect most incoming sunlight (high albedo), reducing absorption of solar energy, which cools the planet further and allows more ice to form.
Researchers from UiT, The Arctic University of Norway (Aksel Samuelsberg, Per Kristen Jakobsen, and Martin Rypdal) proposed an additional mechanism.
As sea ice forms, most salt is expelled, but some remains trapped in brine pockets. Under very cold, dry conditions (relevant to a Snowball Earth), salts crystallize, e.g., mirabilite near –8°C and hydrohalite (a hydrated sodium chloride) around –23°C or lower.
As bare sea ice sublimates (turns directly from solid to vapor, common in dry tropical regions with limited snowfall), these salts are left behind as a lag deposit of bright white crystals.
These salt crystals have extremely high albedo, models used values around 93% reflectance for a hydrohalite- rich surface, compared with about 55% for bare sea ice and 80% for snow/ice.
This creates a positive feedback: more reflection → less warming → further cooling and more ice/salt.
In a simple climate (energy- balance) model that incorporated this salt- albedo feedback, the process intensified cooling once activated during the early stages of global glaciation. It acted like an accelerator, helping push the planet into a deeper frozen state than ice- albedo alone, and made the frozen state more resistant to melting (requiring substantially more greenhouse warming to exit).
The study notes limitations: it is an initial investigation using a simplified model.
It is uncertain whether large, persistent salt deposits would have formed and lasted; more complex models including clouds, winds, ice dynamics, dust, and other processes are needed.
Over long timescales, ice flow from higher latitudes could also dilute tropical salt. The salt feedback complements rather than replaces the ice- albedo effect and may help explain aspects of how Earth entered (and stayed in) these extreme states.
Snowball Earth events are thought to have occurred more than once in the Neoproterozoic and may have influenced early life evolution. This work highlights how surface physical processes can strongly affect planetary climate under conditions very different from today’s.
Cryogenian climate models investigate the extreme “Snowball Earth” glaciations of the Cryogenian Period (roughly 720- 635 million years ago), particularly the long Sturtian (~717- 660 Ma) and Marinoan (~645- 635 Ma) events. These models explore how Earth could enter a near- global ice-covered state, the climate dynamics once frozen, and how it could escape that state.
The central mechanism is the ice- albedo feedback. Snow and ice have high reflectivity (albedo), so expanding ice reflects more sunlight, cools the surface further, and promotes more ice growth.
This creates bistability (hysteresis) in climate models:
A warm, partially ice- covered or ice-free state can tip into a fully glaciated “Snowball” state under reduced solar luminosity (Neoproterozoic Sun was ~6% weaker), low CO₂, continental configurations favoring high albedo, or other triggers.
Once in the Snowball state, escape typically requires very high atmospheric CO₂ (from volcanic outgassing, as silicate weathering is suppressed under ice) to overcome the high planetary albedo.
Simple one- dimensional energy- balance models (EBMs, e.g., Budyko- Sellers type) capture this hysteresis clearly, showing stable warm, intermediate, and fully glaciated branches, with an unstable regime between them. More complex models produce qualitatively similar behavior.
“Hard Snowball” (near- total ice cover) versus “slushball” or “Waterbelt” (narrow equatorial open- water band) remains debated. Geological evidence (equatorial glacial deposits, cap carbonates) supports extensive ice, but models and some proxy data allow limited open water or thin ice in places.
Types of Models Used
Energy- balance models (EBMs): Idealized, low-dimensional (often 1D meridional). They efficiently explore bifurcation points, albedo parameterizations, and feedback. Recent work incorporates a salt- albedo feedback: in net-ablation (sublimation- dominated) tropical zones, cold bare sea ice can leave highly reflective salt crystal lag deposits (e.g., hydrohalite, albedo ~0.93). This intensifies cooling once initiated and makes the frozen state more resistant to melting.
General circulation models (GCMs) / Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs (AOGCMs): 3D models (e.g., CAM, ECHAM, FOAM, GENESIS, LMDz, MIROC, MPI-ESM) simulate atmospheric circulation, clouds, hydrology, ocean dynamics, and sometimes coupled ice sheets. They resolve Hadley cells, polar vortices, and regional effects under prescribed or evolving ice cover.
Intermediate- complexity models (e.g., CLIMBER) and specialized setups: Used for sensitivity studies on paleogeography, orbital parameters, and volcanism.
Coupled climate- ice- sheet and biogeochemical models: Explore long- term ice dynamics, sea- glacier flow, and carbon- cycle interactions (e.g., CO₂ buildup for deglaciation).
Boundary conditions typically include reduced solar constant (~94% of modern), Cryogenian continental configurations (often tropical land bias after Rodinia breakup), variable CO₂, and sometimes large igneous province sulfur aerosols or orbital variations.
Main Findings from Modeling
Initiation:
Ice- albedo feedback can drive rapid global glaciation (years to decades in some simulations) once a critical ice- line latitude is crossed.
Sensitivity studies show CO₂ thresholds for inception vary widely (roughly 10- 250 ppm or more) depending on continental layout, orbital geometry, and volcanic aerosols. Tropical continents raise planetary albedo and can favor colder climates. Asteroid or large volcanic sulfur injections can tip already- cool states into Snowball conditions.
Snowball climate dynamics:
Atmosphere becomes very dry and cold. Tropical circulation can reverse due to low thermal inertia of an ice- covered surface, creating an equatorial desert with net sublimation and accumulation of snow/frost at higher latitudes.
Intermodel comparisons of fully ice- covered states show substantial differences in surface temperatures and ice thickness (one outlier model, FOAM, is notably colder partly due to limited clouds).
Clouds generally provide a net warming effect and can lower the CO₂ needed for deglaciation; high-resolution simulations reveal complex, meandering cloud structures.
Limited open water (~15% or less) can allow climate oscillations (seasonal, interannual) similar to modern ones, consistent with some sedimentary records.
Ocean circulation changes include strong salinity stratification during sea- ice expansion.
Termination:
Requires high CO₂ (hundreds of times pre- industrial in some older GCM results; lower in models with stronger cloud or dust effects). Dust accumulation, snow aging, or mid- latitude processes can aid melting in some simulations.
Deglaciation is often abrupt once melting begins, followed by extreme greenhouse conditions and deposition of distinctive “cap carbonates.”
Additional feedbacks and processes:
Salt precipitation from sea ice (as noted above) can amplify early- stage cooling.
Sea- glacier flow, cryoconite holes, meltwater ponds, and subglacial oceans are explored for their roles in ice dynamics and potential refugia for life.
Paleogeography, reduced degassing rates, and weathering of volcanic provinces have been linked to initiation in combined tectonic– climate models.
Challenges and Uncertainties
Models disagree on exact CO₂ thresholds, the persistence of open water, cloud radiative effects, and the relative importance of various feedbacks.
Surface albedo schemes (snow vs. bare ice vs. salt vs. dust) strongly influence results.
Many simulations idealize geography or omit full ice dynamics, clouds, or dust. Geological constraints (duration of glaciations, proxy temperatures, paleogeography) continue to refine model setups.
Overall, models of increasing complexity confirm that ice -albedo feedback makes global glaciation a robust possibility under Neoproterozoic conditions, while highlighting the sensitivity of the climate system to surface processes, clouds, and boundary conditions.
Ongoing work integrates better paleogeography, biogeochemistry, and high- resolution physics to better match the geological record of these extreme events.
Salt- albedo feedback is positive climate feedback in which the precipitation of salts from sea ice increases surface reflectivity (albedo), leading to greater reflection of sunlight, further cooling, and more ice/salt formation. It is particularly relevant to extreme cold climates such as Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events (~720- 635 million years ago).
When seawater freezes, most salt is rejected into the surrounding water or concentrated in brine pockets within the ice (brine rejection).
Under sufficiently low temperatures, salts crystallize out of these brine inclusions:
Different salts precipitate at different temperatures. Mirabilite (Na₂SO₄·10H₂O) can form around –8°C. Hydrohalite (NaCl·2H₂O), the most abundant, begins precipitating significantly below about –23°C. The full seawater eutectic (complete solidification of remaining brine) occurs near –36°C to –37°C.
Precipitation shows hysteresis: crystals form at lower temperatures than those at which they dissolve upon warming.
In a net- ablation (sublimation- dominated) environment, expected in the dry tropics of a Snowball Earth, ice sublimates (solid → vapor), leaving behind a lag deposit of bright salt crystals on the surface. These crystals are highly scattering and reflective, especially in the near infrared where pure ice absorbs more strongly.
Laboratory measurements show broadband albedos for hydrohalite-rich crusts reaching ~0.93, compared with ~0.5- 0.55 for bare cold sea ice, ~0.8 for snow, and lower values for melting or ponded ice.
This creates a positive feedback loop:
Cooling allows salt precipitation and/or crust formation.
Higher albedo reflects more solar radiation.
Less energy is absorbed → further cooling → more precipitation/ice.
There are related sub- processes: a milder “precipitation feedback” (salts inside ice raise albedo slightly) and stronger “crust- dissolution feedback” (warming dissolves the lag deposit, sharply lowering albedo and accelerating melt).
Observational and Experimental Evidence:
Field measurements (e.g., McMurdo Sound, Antarctica): Bare cold sea ice albedo increases gradually as temperatures drop below the hydrohalite precipitation threshold, consistent with salt crystallization.
Laboratory experiments: Controlled growth of NaCl ice, sublimation to form hydrohalite lag deposits, and spectral albedo measurements confirm very high reflectivity (~0.93 all- wave). Warming causes rapid dissolution, ponding, and albedo collapse (sometimes below 0.4). Optical modeling derives inherent optical properties of hydrohalite and provides parameterizations for climate models.
On the modern Earth the effect is negligible because temperatures cold enough for significant precipitation occur mainly in polar winter under snow cover with limited sunlight. It becomes climatically important only under prolonged, low- latitude, cold, dry conditions with exposed sea ice.
Most Snowball Earth simulations have used simplified albedo schemes (snow- covered, bare cold ice, melting ice, ponds). The salt- albedo effect was hypothesized earlier (around 2009- 2016) but only recently incorporated into climate models.
In a 2026 study, researchers added a salt-albedo parameterization to a one- dimensional energy-balance model (EBM). Key features included:
Temperature- dependent switch to high salt albedo (0.93) below a eutectic threshold in the net-ablation zone.
Resulting bifurcation diagrams showed two coexisting stable Snowball states: one with salt deposits (significantly colder) and one without.
Once activated, the feedback intensified early- stage cooling (acting as an “accelerator”) and raised the radiative forcing (e.g., CO₂) needed for deglaciation, making the frozen state more resistant to melting.
Albedo values used in related modeling include ~0.55 for bare sea ice, ~0.80 for snow/ice, and ~0.93 for hydrohalite- rich surfaces.
The feedback has also been explored for exoplanets (e.g., M- dwarf habitable- zone worlds), where hydrohalite’s high near- infrared reflectivity interacts strongly with the host star’s spectrum and can cool planets further.
In Snowball Earth contexts, the feedback helps explain how an already cooling planet could plunge deeper into a hard- frozen state, especially in tropical ablation zones where snow cover was limited. It adds nuance to the classic ice- albedo feedback and hysteresis loop.
In Snowball Earth contexts, the feedback helps explain how an already cooling planet could plunge deeper into a hard- frozen state, especially in tropical ablation zones where snow cover was limited. It adds nuance to the classic ice- albedo feedback and hysteresis loop.
Limitations and uncertainties include:
Duration and persistence of salt crusts (ice flow from higher latitudes could supply fresher ice; winds, dust, or clouds could modify the effect).
Exact temperatures and rates under realistic multi-salt seawater chemistry and dynamics.
Need for fuller 3D GCMs that include clouds, winds, ice dynamics, and dust to quantify the net strength.
Potential competing effects during deglaciation (dissolution of salt could lower albedo and aid melting once temperatures rise).
Overall, salt-albedo feedback illustrates how micro-scale surface processes (brine chemistry and crystal optics) can influence planetary- scale climate under extreme conditions. It remains an active area of research, with the recent EBM results providing a foundation for more sophisticated modeling.
Amplified cooling of Snowball Earth from a salt– albedo feedback
On a Snowball Earth, atmospheric circulation creates a net ablation (sublimation- dominated) zone at lower latitudes. Bare sea ice is exposed for long periods under extreme cold. At sufficiently low temperatures, salts precipitate from brine pockets in the ice. As the ice sublimates, these salts form a lag deposit of highly reflective crystals (primarily hydrohalite, NaCl·2H₂O).
This raises surface albedo and creates positive salt- albedo feedback that intensifies cooling. The effect had not previously been included in Snowball Earth climate models.
The authors implemented a simplified salt-albedo parameterization in a classic one- dimensional (meridional) diffusive energy- balance model (EBM).
The model equation balances heat capacity, meridional diffusion of heat, absorbed solar radiation (modified by albedo), and outgoing longwave radiation (Planck response, parameterized as
A + BT).
Key albedo features:
Standard ice- albedo feedback (higher albedo below an ice- line temperature threshold).
Lower bare- sea-i ce albedo in the net ablation zone (Jormungand/Waterbelt- style setup).
Salt albedo () Activated below a eutectic temperature (C) in the ablation zone, representing hydrohalite lag deposits.
Equilibrium solutions were found analytically via boundary integrals (locating both an ice line and a “salt line”). Bifurcation diagrams were constructed using outgoing longwave parameter (A) as the control (proxy for greenhouse forcing such as CO₂). Stability was assessed with the slope- stability theorem and finite-difference simulations.
Main Results
The salt- albedo feedback produces two coexisting stable fully glaciated (Snowball) states: one with salt deposits on equatorial bare ice (significantly colder) and one without.
Once the feedback activates, it amplifies cooling during the early phase of global glaciation, acting like an accelerator that pushes the climate deeper into a frozen state than ice- albedo feedback alone would achieve.
The salt- covered state is more resistant to deglaciation: substantially stronger warming (higher greenhouse forcing) is required to exit it compared with the salt- free Snowball state.
For the model parameters examined, the salt-deposit state is the one preferentially reached when cooling from a warm climate, consistent with the classic Snowball Earth hysteresis (warm state → Snowball → eventual escape under high CO₂).
The authors note that multiple unstable states with partial salt deposits also appear but are not the focus.
Salt precipitation may have played a role in shaping the early climate of Snowball Earth by rapidly intensifying cooling via the high albedo of salt crystals.
The work is described as an initial investigation.
Limitations include the simplicity of the EBM (no clouds, winds, full ice dynamics, dust, or multi- component ocean chemistry) and uncertainty about how long salt deposits would persist (ice flow from higher latitudes could dilute them).
More sophisticated 3D models are needed to quantify the effect under realistic conditions.
This study builds directly on earlier laboratory and field work (Light, Carns, and colleagues, ~2009- 2016) that measured the high albedo of hydrohalite crusts and hypothesized the feedback, providing the first climate- model demonstration of its potential climatic impact.
DOI: final version: Clim. Past, 22, 1499–1506, 2026
Authors: Aksel Samuelsberg, Per Kristen Jakobsen, and Martin Rypdal (UiT—The Arctic University of Norway)
Abstract.
It is believed that the atmospheric circulation on Snowball Earth produced a net ablation zone exposing bare sea ice. Under sufficiently low temperatures, salt begins to precipitate out of sea ice, forming a lag deposit of crystals with high albedo as the ice sublimates. This could have resulted in a salt- albedo feedback that has not previously been included in modeling studies of Snowball Earth. We implement salt-albedo feedback in a simple climate model and show that, once initiated, this mechanism could have intensified global cooling in the initial phase of Snowball Earth. Our results suggest that salt precipitation may have played a role in shaping the early climate of Snowball Earth.
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