Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. I deal with evidence and not with frightening computer models because the seeker after truth does not put his faith in any consensus. The road to the truth is long and hard, but this is the road we must follow. People who describe the unprecedented comfort and ease of modern life as a climate disaster, in my opinion have no idea what a real problem is.
On October 9th, as Hurricane Isaias closed in on the coast, Climate Central put out a rapid attribution analysis saying human-caused warming had heated the water under the storm and added about 7 mph to its winds.
Climate Centralโs claim was carried by WSMV-TV and many other media outlets.
That same day, a reader asked Chris Martz about a claim attributed to Al Roker, that Isaias was fueled by a Gulf running 5 to 6 degrees above normal. Climate Realism was unable to find the claim online. It probably occurred during a TV segment.
The story you just read is true. Only the name of the Gulf has been changed.
On October 9th, as Hurricane Isaias closed in on the coast, Climate Central put out a rapid attribution analysis saying human-caused warming had heated the water under the storm and added about 7 mph to its winds.
That same day, a reader asked Chris Martz about a claim attributed to Al Roker, that Isaias was fueled by a Gulf running 5 to 6 degrees above normal. Climate Realism was unable to find the claim online. It probably occurred during a TV segment.
Chris, a friend of Climate Realism, answered with data. His post follows, with a few notes added by Charles Rotter from WUWT. Chris Martz says:
Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist.
But I am.
You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data.
Yes, it is true that tropical cyclones (TCs) operate as thermodynamic heat engines sustained by ocean-to-atmosphere enthalpy fluxes, including sensible and latent heat transfer, with latent heat released during condensation, which maintain the deep convection. The higher the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are, the higher the likelihood for TC intensification.
However, SST anomalies represent departures from climatological averages rather than absolute SSTs. That means below-average SSTs can still support an intense hurricane. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico (or Gulf of America; call it whatever you want) is warm enough during late August, September, and early October every year to support a hurricane of category four or five strength. That has always been the case and it always will be.
Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist.
But I am.
You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data.
Thatโs the whole argument in one paragraph. An anomaly is a departure from average. It isnโt the temperature, and the Gulf in September is never short of fuel.
I hypothesized that Gulf SSTAs donโt really affect TC strength as commonly claimed because of this fact. So, I decided to investigate this question to provide a numerical answer. All science is numbers.
For this analysis, I decided to use the NOAA National Hurricane Centerโs (NHC) HURDAT2 database, which contains historical TC tracks (coordinates), maximum sustained wind speeds (Vmax), and pressures, which contains data spanning 1851 to 2025. I then employed the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSSTv5) dataset from NOAA, which contains monthly SST estimates on a 2ยฐ ร 2ยฐ grid since January 1854. So, my analysis must be restricted from 1854 to 2025.
I identified 269 TCs that attained hurricane strength (โฅ64 kt / โฅ74 mph) within the Gulf during the study period. Of this subset, 70 originated within the Gulf itself, while the remaining 199 developed elsewhere, primarily in the Atlantic or the Caribbean Sea, before entering the Gulf. For each hurricane, I determined its highest Vmax while inside the Gulf specifically. I then compared that intensity against the mean SSTA (calculated by evaluating SST departures from the 1991โ2020 baseline) sampled along its Gulf track, using the monthly ERSSTv5 data.
Monthly SST data is not perfect, but it provides us a fairly good estimate because water has a high heat capacity, meaning it takes a lot of energy gain in order to warm a body of water and a lot of energy loss to cool it. In layman terms, SSTs are usually rather slow to change from week-to-week.
Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist.
But I am.
You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data.
Both datasets are NOAAโs and both are public. Available to everyone.
The results show essentially no linear relationship between Gulf SST anomalies and the maximum sustained wind speeds attained by hurricanes within the basin.
Across all 269 Gulf hurricanes, the Pearson correlation coefficient was just r = +0.036, which indicates an extremely weak positive correlation. The coefficient of determination (Rยฒ) was 0.001, meaning that variations in SST anomalies explained approximately 0.1% of the observed variation in peak hurricane intensity under a simple linear regression model. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was similarly negligible at ฯ = +0.012. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation yielded a p-value of 0.555, well above the conventional statistical significance threshold of 0.05.
Therefore, the observed relationship is not statistically significant.
Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist.
But I am.
You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data.
An Rยฒ of 0.001. Departures from normal account for about a tenth of one percent of how strong Gulf hurricanes get.
The scatterplot below illustrates this quite clearly. Hurricanes attaining relatively modest maximum intensities of 65โ85 kt occurred across a broad range of SSTAs, as did much stronger hurricanes exceeding 100โ120 kt. Some of the most intense hurricanes in the dataset occurred during periods when SSTs along their Gulf tracks were below the 1991โ2020 average. Conversely, some hurricanes traversing anomalously warm waters never intensified beyond minimal hurricane strength.
In layman terms? An anomalously warm Gulf has no meaningful correlation to Gulf hurricane intensity.
Al Roker is not an actual meteorologist.
But I am.
You ask a really good question. And while Roker has opinions, I have data.
A new study led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), published in Science on or around October 15, 2026, provides the most comprehensive observational analysis of ice cliffs at the margins of Earthโs ice sheets (primarily Antarctica and Greenland).
Marine ice- cliff instability (MICI) is a hypothesized process in which tall, near- vertical ice cliffs at the edges of marine- terminating glaciers or ice sheets become structurally unstable and collapse under their own weight, potentially triggering rapid, self- sustaining retreat of the ice sheet.
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A new study led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), published in Science on or around October 15, 2026, provides the most comprehensive observational analysis of ice cliffs at the margins of Earthโs ice sheets (primarily Antarctica and Greenland).
Researchers, including lead author Caroline Needell (MIT- WHOI Joint Program doctoral student), Catherine Walker (WHOI), and Jeremy Bassis (University of Michigan), analyzed 15,330 individual satellite observations (mainly from NASAโs ICESat- 2 laser altimetry, plus some earlier airborne data).
These measured cliff heights, ice thickness, water depth, crevassing, calving rates, and how fronts evolved over time (often in ~3- month intervals over multi- year periods).
Marine Ice- Cliff Instability (MICI)
MICI is a long- debated theory proposing that ice cliffs taller than roughly 100 m above the waterline can become structurally unstable under their own weight. Collapse would expose even taller inland ice, potentially trigger rapid, self- sustaining retreat and substantially accelerate sea- level rise contributions from ice sheets. It has featured in some of the highest sea- level projections but has never been directly observed in a runaway form, leading to debate over its inclusion in models.
Key Findings
Tall ice cliffs (>~90- 100 m) are rare. Most are much shorter (e.g., 95% under ~52 m in Antarctica and ~77 m in Greenland); the tallest observed reached a bit over ~125 m. Only a small number of glaciers had cliffs near the theoretical critical height.โ
When tall cliffs do retreat and calve, they do so faster than existing parameterizations assume, sometimes more than three times the rate predicted by formulas used in high-end projections for a ~100 m cliff. Models may therefore underestimate short- term calving rates from tall cliffs.โ
However, the rapid retreat is typically short- lived rather than runaway. Glaciers often thin, retreat into regions with less favorable conditions (e.g., varying bed topography that reduces effective height, or other stabilizing factors), and re- stabilize as shorter, more stable cliffs. No observed cases showed sustained unstable retreat.โ
Other factors beyond pure height matter for stability, including bed topography, ice thinning rates, water depth (buoyancy effects), and mรฉlange (the mix of ice debris at the front).
Implications
The observations confirm that some mechanical processes described by MICI occur in nature, but they also show limiting factors that can halt rapid retreat. This provides an empirical global dataset to better constrain ice- sheet models, helping reduce uncertainty in sea- level rise projections. Accurate modeling will need to incorporate variables like bed topography and thinning rates, not just cliff height.โ
The work was supported by the National Science Foundation, NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy, the DOMINOS project (part of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration), and others.
Full paper: โEmpirical constraints on ice-cliff calvingโ (DOI: 10.1126/science.aee0658).
An ice cliff near Brown Bluff on the Antarctic Peninsula. Scientists are using observations of ice cliffs like this one to test theories about how tall cliffs may influence glacier retreat and future sea level rise. Credit: Caroline Needell, WHOI
Marine ice- cliff instability (MICI) is a hypothesized process in which tall, near- vertical ice cliffs at the edges of marine- terminating glaciers or ice sheets become structurally unstable and collapse under their own weight, potentially triggering rapid, self- sustaining retreat of the ice sheet.
Basic mechanism
Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica often end in the ocean either as floating ice shelves or as grounded ice cliffs. When a protective ice shelf collapses or thins away (due to warming oceans or atmosphere), it can expose a steep cliff of grounded ice.
Theory and modeling indicate that once the cliff height above the waterline exceeds a critical threshold, commonly estimated around 80- 100 meters (roughly the height of the Statue of Liberty), the stresses in the ice approach or exceed the material strength of the ice.
This can cause the cliff to fail through brittle fracture, shear, or slumping. The collapse produces icebergs and exposes a new, often taller cliff farther inland (especially in regions where the bed deepens inland, called a retrograde slope). If successive failures continually expose taller ice, the process can become a positive feedback loop of accelerating retreat.
Key factors that influence whether this occurs include:
Cliff height above water
Water depth (deeper water provides more buoyant support)
Ice thickness gradients and bed topography
Pre- existing damage or crevassing in the ice
Presence of proglacial mรฉlange (a mix of icebergs and sea ice that can buttress the cliff)
Rates of dynamic thinning (the ice flowing and stretching and thinning as it approaches the front)
Why it matters for sea- level rise
MICI has been included in some ice- sheet models that produce the highest projections of future sea- level rise. In particular, early parameterizations suggested it could contribute to multi- meter rises over centuries by enabling rapid collapse of vulnerable regions such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 3- 5 meters if fully lost). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has treated projections involving MICI with low confidence because of large uncertainties.
Controversies and observational constraints
The idea remains debated for several reasons:
True runaway MICI has never been directly observed in the modern era; it is largely inferred from theory, limited observations of tall cliffs, high- fidelity fracture models, and interpretations of past sea-level high stands.
Tall ice cliffs (near or above ~100 m) are rare today. Comprehensive satellite surveys (e.g., of more than 15,000 cliffs using ICESat- 2 and airborne laser altimetry) show that most cliffs are far shorter (means around 30 m; 95th percentiles typically under 50- 80 m depending on the ice sheet).
A 2026 study in Science (Needell, Walker, and Bassis) provided the largest observational dataset to date. It found that the tallest cliffs do calve (break off) faster than many existing model parameterizations assume, sometimes more than three times as fast for ~100 m cliffs. However, the rapid retreat phases were short-lived. Dynamic thinning and retreat into areas with smaller ice-thickness gradients caused the cliffs to stabilize rather than continue runaway collapse. The work indicates that models may underestimate short-term calving rates from tall cliffs, but that instability depends sensitively on factors beyond height alone (especially thickness gradients and topography).
In short, MICI describes a plausible mechanical pathway for accelerated ice loss after ice- shelf disintegration, but real- world observations so far show that stabilizing processes often interrupt the feedback. Improved models will need to incorporate these additional controls to narrow the range of future sea-level projections.
Rumleren Glacier calves ice from its face in South Skjoldungen Fjord, Greenland. Calving is one of the processes scientists are examining to better understand how ice cliffs break apart and retreat. Credit: Catherine Walker, WHOI
Empirical constraints on ice cliff calving
Editorโs summary
Sections of the ice cliffs at the margins of Earthโs ice sheets constantly collapse into the adjacent sea in a process called calving. Could such calving turn into a runaway retreat of the ice sheet edge if it proceeds into thick enough parts of the ice sheet past the limits of ice cliff stability? Needell et al. measured the profiles of more than 15,000 ice cliffs in Greenland and Antarctica and examined the characteristics that promote calving. Using a subset of suitable glaciers, they found that the tallest cliffs calved more rapidly than current parameterizations assume, but also that dynamic thinning and margin retreat into regions with low ice thickness gradients prevented runaway losses. โJesse Smith
Abstract
When calving cliffs at the margins of Earthโs ice sheets exceed a critical height, runaway retreat may be initiated in a process called the marine ice cliff instability. However, sufficiently tall ice cliffs have rarely been observed. To address this gap, we measured the characteristics of 15,330 ice cliffs across Earthโs ice sheet margins using laser altimetry. We show that cliff height is highly correlated with mรฉlange thickness, water depth, and crevassing. We found that tall cliffs calve more rapidly than parameterizations assume, but dynamic thinning and retreat into regions with low ice thickness gradients prevent runaway retreat. These observations suggest that model projections may underestimate subannual rates of cliff calving, but that the potential for instability will depend sensitively on additional quantities, not cliff height alone.
Key points from the study (drawing on the published abstract/editor summary and closely matching preprint)
Researchers compiled ~15,000 and more laser altimetry observations (primarily NASA ICESat- 2, 2018- 2023, plus earlier Operation IceBridge airborne data) of ice- cliff heights around the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.
Cliff- height distributions are right- skewed. Means are ~31- 33 m. The 95th percentile is only ~52 m in Antarctica and ~77 m in Greenland. Maximum observed heights are ~124- 128 m. Cliffs near or above the commonly cited ~100 m theoretical critical height (*H*crit) are rare.
Cliff height correlates positively with water depth and proglacial mรฉlange thickness and shows a relationship with a proxy for pre- existing ice damage and crevassing (taller cliffs tend not to be the most damaged, suggesting highly stressed, damaged ice fails before reaching extreme heights). No strong link to atmospheric or sea- surface temperature was found.
Focusing on the tallest cliffs (>90 m; 16 glaciers identified), four with good repeat sampling that retreated during the study period were analyzed in detail (Fleming, Commandant Charcot, and Frost glaciers in Antarctica; Tuttulikassaap Sermia in Greenland).
Calving rates increase with cliff height and exceed existing parameterizations (e.g., the DeConto & Pollard formulation used in high -end sea- level projections) by up to a factor of ~3 for ~100 m cliffs.
Rapid retreat was observed but was short- lived. Dynamic thinning combined with retreat into regions of low ice- thickness gradient suppressed further cliff growth and prevented runaway (self- sustaining) retreat. No cases of sustained marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) were observed.
Implications: Ice- sheet models that rely solely on cliff height for calving parameterizations may underestimate short- term (sub-annual) retreat rates from tall cliffs. However, the potential for true MICI-style instability depends sensitively on additional factors, especially ice -thickness gradients, bed topography, dynamic thinning, and mรฉlange, rather than height alone. The new observational dataset provides empirical constraints to improve these parameterizations and reduce uncertainty in sea- level rise projections.
The full text is behind the Science paywall (or institutional access). A preprint version with highly similar content is available on Research Square (DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7133627/v1). Supplementary materials (methods, additional figures, data) are linked from the Science page, and replication data have been deposited (e.g., Dryad).
When Andy Burnham returned from the summer recess to make his first Commons speech as Prime Minister, he promised MPs a โclear diagnosisโ of what ails Britain. From the 1980s, he said, the country took a series of wrong turns. According to him, political power was centralised, economic assets were privatised and industry was hollowed out. Thatcher was the villain and the 1970s constituted the lost Eden. The Institute of Economic Affairs rightly called it a speech steeped in nostalgia.
โCommon goodโ is no accident of speechwriting. It is the title of Mariana Mazzucatoโs recent book.
When Andy Burnham returned from the summer recess to make his first Commons speech as Prime Minister, he promised MPs a โclear diagnosisโ of what ails Britain. From the 1980s, he said, the country took a series of wrong turns. According to him, political power was centralised, economic assets were privatised and industry was hollowed out. Thatcher was the villain and the 1970s constituted the lost Eden. The Institute of Economic Affairs rightly called it a speech steeped in nostalgia. Weeks later, at the Labour conference in Liverpool, the PM went further. Invoking 1945, he declared that โwe built the common goodโ, then promised to repeal the Thatcher-era ban on public ownership of water companies and to launch GB Grid, a publicly owned company to take on private energy operators. Energy, water and housing were to come back under โpublic controlโ.
โCommon goodโ is no accident of speechwriting. It is the title of Mariana Mazzucatoโs recent book. She is the self-billed โone of the worldโs most influential economistsโ and her consultancies with governments, international agencies and politicians are too numerous to list here but investigative reporter Charlotte Gillโs blog provides good coverage. The day before Burnham took the Liverpool stage, she published a Project Syndicate column urging that the stateโs public-finance institutions be scaled up and the fiscal rules reformed to let them โgrowโ. Britain, she says, has recorded the lowest public investment in the G7 for most of three decades, a gap she puts at roughly ยฃ500 billion. The column opens by welcoming Chancellor John Healeyโs pledge to sharpen the focus of those institutions, which tells you who is advising whom. Mazzucato is the mediaโs favourite economist, whose ideas helped shape Labourโs pitch for power, and who is fรชted on Channel 4, in the New Statesman and the Guardian, and on podcasts without end. She is no less active in social media (here and here).
Meanwhile one barely hears of Jon Moynihan, whose two-volume Return to Growth is probably among the most thorough audits of British stagnation, as I argued in my review. The pattern is familiar. In 1980 the Malthusian doomster Paul Ehrlich bet the economist Julian Simon that the prices of five metals would rise over a decade. All five fell, and Ehrlich mailed Simon a cheque for $576.07. Ehrlich went on collecting honours despite every one of his dire predictions failing. Simon died in 1998 with little notice from the legacy media. Mazzucato is the Paul Ehrlich of British economics, consulted by the powerful whatever the predictive or analytical worth of her work. Moynihan is the Julian Simon. Britain is being handed the Fabian compass when what it needs is Moynihanโs detailed, classical liberal reform manual.
A compass with no needle
What, exactly, is the โcommon goodโ? Not, Mazzucato insists, the economics textbook definition of public goods which the state supplies because they are non-excludable and non-rivalrous and hence unprofitable for private enterprise. In her own telling it is โan objective, not a correctionโ, a collectively chosen goal to be written into contracts, procurement, patents and public balance sheets from the start. The bookโs โcompassโ has five points: purpose and direction, co-creation, collective learning, reward-sharing through โpre-distributionโ, and accountability.
As I noted in my June review, there are no difficult, real world economic trade-offs in her list of items for the common good. The content of the โcommon goodโ, whether Net Zero, โshared prosperityโ or public control of water, is whatever the โcommissionsโ and โstakeholder panelsโ decide. And who decides who participates in these commission and panels? We donโt know, although it is presumed that these are democratic in construct.
Letโs examine the Climate Change Committee quango as an example. As Ross Clark notes in the Telegraph, the Committee seems to think that โit is being paid to behave like a green pressure groupโ. The CCCโs recommendations, while not binding on the Government, have been adopted in every instance. One can only imagine Mazzucato-style committees and panels being stuffed with fellow redistributionist Fabians and green zealots and called โdemocratic representationsโ of the public. Can you imagine a Tommy Robinson being in a Mazzucato-inspired panel to discuss immigration policy in the UK?
Mazzucato dresses up her Fabian ideals in contemporary clothes. Allow private capital to remain private, but direct it permanently by public purpose as defined by experts. Burnhamโs โpublic controlโ is its political twin, and the family resemblance is plain. The abstract of Mazzucatoโs new UCL report frames its subject as delivering the Governmentโs commitment to greater public control of essential services. The IEAโs Kristian Niemietz finds the same link, calling Burnhamโs โManchesterismโ speech โstraight out of the Mariana Mazzucato playbookโ. In July, she was already telling readers how Burnham can make devolution work.
Marking her own homework
A sound economist would ask what the doctrine has actually delivered. Camden is the test case Mazzucato never tires of citing. She co-chaired its Renewal Commission in 2020-21, and her institute then drew up the blueprint for a ยฃ30 million Community Wealth Fund. Deployment did not begin until 2025, when the council committed an initial ยฃ4 million to a pilot, ยฃ2 million for a Youth Fund and ยฃ2 million for a Diversity Fund, steered by a panel of young people and a diversity panel of over 500. The Youth Fundโs first investment was ยฃ112,000 in a single outfit. After years of commissions, strategies and panels, there is little published evidence that child poverty, food access or employment in Camden has improved at all, as I set out earlier in these pages.
What the council publishes so far is mostly about โmissionsโ and process: who sits on the panels, how many residents took part, how well โdiverseโ applicants fit the missions. None of that tells a Camden resident whether her street, her child or her small business is better off. The process has become the product, and the process is what Mazzucatoโs common good project is all about. Itโs all hat and no cattle, as the cousins across the pond might say. Charlotte Gill captures this best, if somewhat cynically: โA mission-led mission to use the word mission as much as mission possible.โ Here is a doctrine that cannot lose. When mission-oriented policy works, the doctrine is vindicated; when it flounders, the government misunderstood the doctrine, and the remedy is a bigger mandate and a bigger balance sheet.
The UCL September report asks for precisely that. It grades the National Wealth Fund, Great British Energy and the new National Housing Bank against nine design features of a โmission-orientedโ public finance institution, criteria of the authorโs own devising. She, of course, finds that more scale, more coordination and looser fiscal rules are needed. A student who sets the exam, marks the paper and recommends more generous funding for her school would be viewed with suspicion. The NWF, meanwhile, was launched with a target of mobilising ยฃ3 of private money for every ยฃ1 of its own, at least ยฃ70 billion in all, and its flagship is the ยฃ38 billion Sizewell C, in which the British state is the largest shareholder at 44.9%. As Moynihan documents, such reactors cost four to five times what the Koreans or Emiratis pay, given the strangulating regulations in Britain.
Moynihanโs operating manual
Moynihan surveys the same stagnation and writes from a different prescription. Volume I organises the problem around three variables: the size of the state, the tax burden and the volume of regulation. Debt servicing costs over ยฃ100 billion a year, debt is over 110% of GDP, and the tax take is forecast to reach a historic high within five years. This is hardly a state starved of resources. Regulation is the third and deadliest variable: housebuilders tangled in habitats rules for bats while demand for homes soars, domestic oil and gas left in the ground while nuclear costs multiply, a City smothered by compliance.
None of these is a shortage of public equity. Set Mazzucatoโs ยฃ500 billion against that. Her counterfactual treats public capital โ which as Margaret Thatcher never tired of reminding us, is taxpayersโ money โ as growth-enhancing by definition. The institutions she wants to be โscaledโ inherit every constraint Moynihan documents. It would seem that Mazzucato has never read Friedrich von Hayekโs work and its lessons of the inefficiencies of government planning. She is apparently unaware that the policy-induced distortions of government planning are far worse than the market imperfections it is meant to cure. Nor, apparently, is the famous economist aware of how state control of credit, industrial licensing and foreign exchange breeds corruption and rent-seeking. Perhaps her focus on government-led โmissionsโ as the solution to Britainโs two-decades long stagnation blinds her to the lesson that central planning concentrates power rather than creating resources. Prime Minister Burnham, with advisor Mazzucatoโs assistance, has misdiagnosed Britainโs ills.
Simonโs fate, Moynihanโs warning
Why, then, does Mazzucato get the microphone? Because she tells governments what they want to hear: that they are the architects of prosperity. Moynihan tells them to shrink the state, cut taxes, slash regulation and allow the economy to grow. This is not something the elites, the state salariat and the legacy media find comfortable.
Konstantin Kisin, writing after the Liverpool speech, concluded that Burnham will get his way because voters when polled in the abstract oppose taxes and government spending in general. โBut ask about anything specific and the picture inverts. 72% want higher taxes on the top 5%. 61% will pay more themselves for the NHS.โ 82% want water nationalised and 76% the railways, with large majorities of Reform voters among them. It will not work, he argues, because โBritain has a production problem rather than a distribution problemโ, with the tax burden already at a post-war high of 36% of GDP. Kisin believes โthe whole thing will end in the kind of humiliation that lingers in the national memory for a generationโ, as it is hard to see Britain breaking out of the ideology it is trapped in.
The belief that prosperity is brought about by โmission-orientedโ government mandarins in Whitehall rather than created by entrepreneurs unencumbered by stifling regulations โ as Ayn Randโs novel Atlas Shrugged so memorably novelised โ is a faith. And faiths are refuted by failure, not evidence. Moynihan himself expects no better: he doubts any government will adopt his reform programme short of a crisis on the scale of the late 1970s. The bond market, where 30-year gilt yields touched 6.03% on October 1st, the highest in 28 years, is watching.
Burnhamโs Government will, I suspect, give Mazzucatoโs compass a thorough trial: more public control, more public equity, looser fiscal rules, more missions. The Wealth Fund will report billions โmobilisedโ, a Camden-style panel will bless the result, and the debt-service bill will keep climbing. Britain has run this experiment before, and it ended in the 1976 crisis which led Britain to approach the IMF with the begging bowl.
Dr Mazzucatoโs โmission-orientedโ policy advice is Britainโs primrose path to economic disaster, and it seems there is no other path that is even faintly discernible on the horizon despite the clear programme outlined by Moynihan. Woe unto Britain indeed, it shall never again rule the waves and being enslaved to sovereign bond holders for a generation is in prospect.
Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the Daily Scepticโs Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO2 Coalition and a former (cancelled) contributor to Forbes. Follow him onSubstackandX.
A decade- long prospective evaluation of earthquake forecasting models in California, tested against nearly 600 quakes (exactly 597 of magnitude Mw โฅ 3.95), shows that select models, especially certain versions of well- established operational ones, can reliably describe next- day patterns of earthquake numbers, locations, and magnitudes.
ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) and STEP (Short- Term Earthquake Probability) are two leading statistical models used for short- term earthquake forecasting, particularly for aftershock sequences and clustered seismicity.
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A decade- long prospective evaluation of earthquake forecasting models in California, tested against nearly 600 quakes (exactly 597 of magnitude Mw โฅ 3.95), shows that select models, especially certain versions of well- established operational ones, can reliably describe next- day patterns of earthquake numbers, locations, and magnitudes.
This comes from a University of Bristol-led study published in Nature Communications (August 2026; press coverage around October 14- 15, 2026). Researchers assessed 27 time- varying seismicity models (focusing on 21 for Mw โฅ 3.95) operated fully prospectively by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) from August 2007 to August 2018.
These generated 51,625 automated next- day forecasts for California, using only data available before each forecast day. The forecasts were compared to the 597 observed earthquakes (depths โค 30 km in the CSEP- California test region), which included major sequences such as the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor- Cucapah, the 2012 Brawley swarm, and the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa event.
Key Findings
Roughly 95% of the models produced forecasts statistically consistent with the number of observed earthquakes (using a Negative Binomial Distribution test that better handles clustering variability; a stricter Poisson test was less favorable overall).
About two- thirds were consistent with the spatial locations (epicenters) of the quakes.
Individually, select versions of the Epidemic- Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) and Short- Term Earthquake Probability (STEP)models, widely used types for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by agencies in places like Italy, New Zealand, and the US, showed sustained consistency with the prospective data.
Some newer models and those incorporating smaller earthquakes as inputs performed relatively better, indicating progress in forecasting skill over time. Many models slightly overestimated rates but stayed within statistical bounds cumulatively; daily performance was stronger in quieter periods or certain aftershock sequences and weaker right after the largest mainshocks (as expected, since these models struggle to anticipate the exact timing of large events themselves).
Context and Implications
These are probabilistic forecasts of rates and likelihoods (where, when, how large activity is more likely over the next day), not deterministic predictions of exact events. No method currently predicts the precise time, place, and size of the next earthquake. The California test stands out for its scale (number of models, decade- long duration, and volume of prospective observations) compared to earlier CSEP efforts in Japan, New Zealand, and Italy.โ
The results provide strong evidence supporting the use of these model types in public OEF systems for situational awareness, especially during elevated activity periods. The team offers recommendations (โmodel recipesโ), open- source software (including pyCSEP tools and reproducibility packages), and benchmarking data to aid development of operational systems worldwide. Funding came from the Leverhulme Trust, USGS, and Statewide California Earthquake Center.
In short, the nearly 600 California earthquakes supplied rigorous, bias- resistant validation that certain next- day seismic risk models work as intended over long periods, bolstering confidence in their practical value for preparedness without overclaiming predictive power.
Forecast maps generated by 21 Mwโโฅโ3.95 next-day seismicity models and one time-invariant model (HKJ-ADAPTIVE-M2) for four different seismically calm days in California. Credit: Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-76243-7
ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) and STEP (Short- Term Earthquake Probability) are two leading statistical models used for short- term earthquake forecasting, particularly for aftershock sequences and clustered seismicity.
Both are widely applied in operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems by agencies such as the USGS, Italyโs INGV, and New Zealandโs Earth Sciences agencies. They rely on well- established empirical laws of seismicity rather than deterministic physical prediction of individual events.
Core Shared Principles
Both models describe seismicity as a combination of:
A background (or spontaneous and long- term) rate of earthquakes.
Triggered (clustered) seismicity, where past earthquakes increase the likelihood of future ones.
They incorporate classic empirical relations:
Omori- Utsu law: Aftershock rates decay as a power law with time after a triggering event (roughly rate โ 1/(t + c)^p).
Gutenberg- Richter law: Earthquake frequency decreases exponentially with magnitude (more small events than large ones).
Productivity scaling: Larger earthquakes trigger more aftershocks.
These enable probabilistic forecasts of the expected rate (or probability) of earthquakes of certain magnitudes in space and time, often for the next day, week, or other short windows, without claiming to predict exact times or locations of individual shocks.
ETAS Model
Introduced by Yosihiko Ogata in the late 1980s, ETAS is a self- exciting point process (a type of Hawkes process). It treats every earthquake as a potential โparentโ that can trigger its own โoffspringโ aftershocks, which can in turn trigger further events, forming a cascading, epidemic-like branching process.
The conditional intensity (expected rate) at a given time t, location, and above a magnitude threshold is typically expressed as:Where:
is the background rate (spatially varying, often from long-term seismicity).
The sum is over past events i.
K and ฮฑ control productivity (how many aftershocks a magnitude miโ event produces).
ฮฝ(t– tiโ) is the temporal decay (Omori- Utsu form).
s(โ ) is a spatial kernel (often isotropic or anisotropic, decaying with distance).
is a completeness magnitude threshold.
Key features:
Fully recursive: secondary and higher- order aftershocks are naturally included.
Parameters are usually estimated by maximum likelihood from a catalog (sometimes Bayesian methods are used for robustness).
Flexible spatial kernels and variants exist (e.g., adaptive smoothing, incorporation of smaller events, or slow- slip effects).
Limitations: Can be computationally intensive; sensitive to catalog incompleteness; spatial kernels are often simplified (isotropic by default).
ETAS and its variants performed well in the long- term California CSEP tests referenced in recent studies.
STEP Model
Developed by Gerstenberger and colleagues (around 2004- 2005), STEP builds on the simpler Reasenberg- Jones (1989) aftershock model and was designed for practical, real- time use (including early USGS aftershock forecasts).
It also has background and clustered components, but differs in structure:
Background: Often taken from a long- term seismic hazard model (e.g., Frankel et al. smoothed seismicity or national hazard maps).
Clustering: Uses the Reasenberg- Jones formulation for aftershock rates after a mainshock, extended to multiple sequences. Parameters can be generic (from past sequences in similar settings) or sequence- specific (updated as new events occur).
Combination rule: Rates from background and aftershock components are typically combined by taking the maximum (rather than summing), which helps avoid double- counting in active areas.
Spatial component: Empirically derived decay with distance; earthquakes are classified into primary and secondary events or clusters, with zone- specific adjustments.
Variants such as STEPJAVA (a Java reimplementation) appear in CSEP experiments.
Key features:
More modular and heuristic: Combines distinct model pieces rather than a single unified branching process.
Computationally efficient and analytic in many implementations.
Easily integrates with official long- term hazard maps for consistency.
Strengths: Practical for operational use; adapts parameters per sequence; often produces focused โhot spotsโ.
Limitations: Less fully recursive than classic ETAS in some formulations; spatial rules can be more empirical.
Main Differences
Aspect
ETAS
STEP
Triggering style
Fully recursive branching (every event can trigger others equally)
Cluster and sequence- oriented; primary vs. secondary events
Rate combination
Background and sum of all triggers
Often max(background, clustered rates)
Parameter handling
Global or regionally fitted; fixed during forecast windows
Generic and sequence- specific; updated as events accrue
Spatial treatment
Continuous kernels
Empirical zones and distance decay
Computational style
Point-process intensity
More modular, often faster for real- time use
In prospective tests (including California CSEP experiments spanning ~2007- 2018), select versions of both models showed good consistency with observed numbers, locations, and magnitudes of moderate earthquakes, supporting their use in public OEF.
Performance is often comparable, with results depending on the specific variant, catalog, and evaluation metric; neither perfectly forecasts the occurrence of large mainshocks themselves (a known limitation of pure clustering models).
Practical Use
Both generate probabilistic rate maps or expected counts for short time windows. They are routinely updated with new catalog data. Modern research continues to refine them (e.g., better handling of incompleteness, anisotropy, swarms, or hybrid deep- learning combinations).
In short, ETAS emphasizes a unified, cascading statistical process, while STEP emphasizes practical, adaptive combination of background hazard and aftershock sequences. Together they form the backbone of many current short- term seismic risk forecasts.
Image shows spatial earthquake forecasts generated by the models for specific days. Bright colours denote regions of relatively high expected seismicity, while dark regions indicate the opposite. Image credit: J. Bayona
Select earthquake forecasting models demonstrate consistency with prospective decadal observations in California
Abstract Summary
Earthquake forecasting systems are operational in several countries.
To validate them rigorously, the authors prospectively tested 27 forecasting models (including types used for operational earthquake forecasting) operated by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).
From August 2007 to August 2018 these models produced 51,625 next- day Mw โฅ 3.95 seismicity forecasts for California. The forecasts were evaluated against 597 observed Mw โฅ 3.95 earthquakes (depths โค 30 km) using community- vetted statistical methods.
Background and Methods
CSEP ran fully automated, prospective experiments to avoid retrospective bias.
Models included variants of:
Epidemic- Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)
Short- Term Earthquake Probability (STEP)
Alternatives (e.g., PPE, EEPAS)
Nonparametric and ensemble models
Forecasts were issued daily at midnight UTC for the next 24 hours on a spatial grid, using only prior data.
Evaluation used CSEP tests for number (Poisson and Negative Binomial Distribution), spatial distribution, and magnitude distribution, plus comparisons against a time- invariant smoothed seismicity benchmark (HKJ-ADAPTIVE-M2).
Focus was primarily on the 21 models targeting Mw โฅ 3.95 (results for a smaller set of Mw โฅ 4.95 models appear in supplementary material). The catalog included sequences such as the 2010 Mw 7.2 El MayorโCucapah, 2012 Brawley swarm, and 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa.
Key Results Highlights
Number consistency: Nearly all models (20/21 under the NBD test) matched cumulative observed counts statistically, despite fixed productivity parameters and fully automated operation. About half differed by โค20% from observations; strong performers included STEPJAVA and certain ETAS versions.
Daily performance: Models often under -predicted rates on the day of large mainshocks (inherent limitation of clustering models) but performed better in subsequent days or quiet periods.
Spatial and magnitude: Over two- thirds consistent spatially; 95% matched magnitude distributions. Nonparametric and adaptive- smoothing components helped spatial skill.
Overall, time- varying clustering models added value over purely time- invariant ones. Newer models and those using smaller earthquakes as inputs tended to perform relatively better.
Discussion and Implications
The study supports use of ETAS- and STEP- type models in public OEF for situational awareness.
Limitations remain (e.g., forecasting the exact occurrence of large events themselves and handling certain swarms). The authors offer โmodel recipesโ, open- source reproducibility tools (Code Ocean capsule and GitHub), forecast data via CSEP, and the USGS earthquake catalog.
Data and Code Availability: Forecasts at cseptesting.org; catalog via USGS; software packages cited in the paper (including a peer- reviewed Code Ocean version).
This paper provides one of the most extensive prospective validations of next- day seismic forecasting models to date and underpins recent coverage about nearly 600 California earthquakes validating such models. The full article (including figures, methods, and supplementary material) is freely available at the linked URL.
The findings could have practical implications for government agencies, civil protection authorities and scientific organisations developing – or considering developing – operational earthquake forecasting systems. Image credit: Tumisu
A recent article in The Conversation, โColonisation, not climate change, first primed these forests to burn,โ claims that changing forest management practices, or lack thereof, are primarily responsible for Australian wildfires getting out of control, and climate change is only part of the equation. This is true, at least in some respects. Low-intensity controlled burns and timber harvesting can prevent more intense fires from being able to get started, and many indigenous people frequently burned landscapes to improve hunting grounds.
A recent article in The Conversation, โColonisation, not climate change, first primed these forests to burn,โ claims that changing forest management practices, or lack thereof, are primarily responsible for Australian wildfires getting out of control, and climate change is only part of the equation. This is true, at least in some respects. Low-intensity controlled burns and timber harvesting can prevent more intense fires from being able to get started, and many indigenous people frequently burned landscapes to improve hunting grounds. This is true of European cultures as well, however, and the framing of this article makes the mistake of forwarding well-meaning but still racist โnoble savageโ tropes.
The post authors, researchers from the University of Melbourne along with an Aboriginal โTraditional Custodian,โ correctly state that โweather is only part of a catastrophic fire.โ
They emphasize fuel load as a major component that contributes to out of control, devastating wildfires. Their research focused on the evidence of more frequent, low-intensity fires occurring in the ancient past of Australia, which suddenly stop after British colonization of the continent. They assert that โcurrent fuel loadโ in Australian forests is due to human intervention, in this case because controlled burning was discontinued after the Aboriginal people were displaced.
The authors โfound that for more than 800 years, frequent, low-temperature cultural burning under GunaiKurnai care held this land as stable, open woodland,โ and after colonization, โ[h]ot fire becomes dominant, shrubs thicken, eucalypt cover surges to nearly four times pre-colonial levels, and open woodland becomes todayโs flammable forest.โ
They still make nods towards what they call โhuman-driven climate change,โ but acknowledge that it โdid not start this vulnerability โ it amplifies one that colonisation began.โ
There are a few angles at work here, but first I will note that they are correct that controlled burning reduces fuel load and thus makes it harder for very hot fires to get started.
A major mistake of environmentalists of the past several decades was to stop timber harvesting and deadfall clearing, and limit even low intensity natural burns. Climate Realism explains how in posts about California, Texas, and Canada, among others. Environmental goals, like saving the Spotted Owl for instance, seen in Figure 1 below, led to the building up of burnable fuel that can explode into intense wildfires when an arsonist or lightning strikes.
Figure 1. Graph combining data for Federal lands showing acres harvested vs. acres burned, in millions of acres. Data from U.S. Forest Service and the National Interagency Fire Center. Graph by Anthony Watts.
Incorrect in the Conversation piece, however, is the assertion that climate change is making wildfires worse at all. The data simply do not show it, satellite data show that global wildfire occurrence has been on a downward trend for decades. (See Figure 2 below)
Figure 2: Total acreage burned by fires each year between 2003 and 2015. Trend line in red indicates a steady decline. Source: โNASA detects drop in global fires,โ NASA website, June 29, 2017.
Similarly, data show that Australian wildfires are also becoming smaller since peaking in the 1970s, there is no trend towards more or worse drought. If anything, as pointed out in โClimate Blame for Australian Wildfires Ages Poorly, as Rainfall Remains Abundant,โ precipitation seems to be improving for the continent since the droughts of the mid-twentieth century.
The authors are probably right that when the previous owners of the land, Aborigines, were pushed out, the land management practices changed. Itโs not clear from the article whether the researchers determined with certainty that the frequent low-intensity fires were directed by Aborigines, or just at times allowed to burn when they started naturally.
Their solution is that โTraditional Ownersโ โ that is to say, Aboriginesโmust be โresourcedโ so they can restore โhealthy Country and cultural burning.โ
They do not explain how Aboriginal โcultural burningโ is better than normal controlled burning that is done in other parts of the world, one suspects that it is not very different.
Ancient Europeans practiced forest and moorland management as well, thinning forests via logging and controlled burns on the moors were practiced by the British. It is nonsense to imply that white settlers were unaware that these methods helped to maintain healthy woodlands. It is a sort of โnoble savageโ fallacy being pushed here, that native people were living in harmony with nature, and not constantly battling it, compared to the foolish nature-hating Europeans. Controlled or cultural burning is not, definitionally, living in harmony with nature. It is aggressive management and shaping the land to your own wants and needs, and the Aborigines themselves know this, as they say in the article, โwild Country is sick Country.โ
Today, you canโt blame wildfires in Australia on British colonists; a better argument can be made that progressive environmentalists are the ones currently responsible.
It is good that The Conversation allowed any article that explains something as straightforward as the fact that fuel load is more to blame for severe fires than climate change, but it is shameful that it appears the only way this can get published is by making the lede about scolding the British.
U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remained essentially flat from 2019- 2024 even as production rose, according to a Johns Hopkins University study led by Ao Chen (PhD student) and Scot Miller (associate professor of environmental health and engineering), published in Communications Earth & Environment.
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U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remained essentially flat from 2019- 2024 even as production rose, according to a Johns Hopkins University study led by Ao Chen (PhD student) and Scot Miller (associate professor of environmental health and engineering), published in Communications Earth & Environment.
The researchers used satellite observations from TROPOMI and GOSAT combined with atmospheric inverse modeling to estimate emissions across the contiguous U.S. Total oil and gas methane emissions stayed in a narrow range of about 9.3-10.4 teragrams (Tg) per year. They fell by 0.58 Tg from 2019- 2023 but rose slightly from 2023- 2024. Emissions intensity (methane released relative to oil and gas production) dropped by roughly 11%, continuing a longer- term downward trend rather than reflecting a sharp new policy- driven decline.โ
Key points from the study and related coverage:
Good news and bad news framing: Emissions did not surge despite major growth in production (especially after the hydraulic fracturing boom), contrary to some earlier fears. However, oil and gas remain a large share of U.S. methane emissions, and the data show no clear detectable drop attributable to recent federal measures such as the Inflation Reduction Actโs methane fees and Waste Emissions Charge or EPA Clean Air Act rules. Researchers note the counterfactual is unknown; emissions might have been higher without the policies.โ
Drivers of stable absolute emissions and falling intensity: Improved infrastructure (more pipelines to capture and sell gas instead of flaring and venting it, especially in places like the Permian Basin), better industry practices and leak detection and repair, earlier regulations (e.g., New Source Performance Standards for newer facilities), and the rising economic value of natural gas as a commodity. Most of the intensity decline occurred around 2020- 2022.โ
Regional variation: Texas saw a roughly 14% decline in oil and gas methane emissions. California and Colorado appear to be falling short of their own reduction goals. States with statutory targets sometimes have better inventory alignment with satellite data, but this did not clearly translate into faster emission reductions than states without such targets.โ
Context on policy and inventories: Implementation of the IRA fee and related rules faced delays and was limited during the study window. Satellite- based estimates remain higher than EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory figures (consistent with prior top-down studies), though they capture a similar intensity trend.โ
Methane is a potent short- lived greenhouse gas (roughly 30 times more powerful than COโ over short timescales), so absolute reductions matter for near- term climate impact.
The authors emphasize that while falling intensity is positive, sustained cuts in total emissions are still needed, and long- term regulatory consistency could influence future industry incentives.
The original Johns Hopkins Hub article (by Hannah Robbins, published October 13, 2026) is available at hub.jhu.edu. The peer- reviewed paper is in Communications Earth & Environment (DOI related to 10.1038/s43247-026-04039-0).
TROPOMI and GOSAT provide key satellite observations of atmospheric methane (CHโ) used in the Johns Hopkins study and many other emissions analyses.
In that research, scientists combined data from these instruments with atmospheric modeling. Because methane disperses with wind, they applied inverse modeling (an algorithm that works backward from observed atmospheric concentrations) to estimate where and how much methane was emitted from oil and gas sources on the ground across the contiguous U.S. for 2019- 2024.
TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument)
Platform: Onboard the European Space Agencyโs (ESA) Sentinel- 5 Precursor satellite, launched in October 2017.
Capabilities: A push- broom imaging spectrometer that measures reflected sunlight across ultraviolet, visible, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands. Methane is retrieved primarily from the SWIR band around 2.3 ฮผm.
Coverage and resolution: Daily near- global coverage with a wide ~2,600 km swath. Nadir pixel size is about 7 ร 7 km (improved to ~5.5 ร 7 km after August 2019).
Strengths: High spatial resolution and dense sampling enable mapping of both regional patterns and some larger point sources. It produces column- averaged dry- air mole fractions of methane (XCHโ).
Limitations: Strict quality filtering yields a relatively low retrieval success rate (~3% in some analyses) due to clouds, aerosols, and surface conditions. It can show larger regional biases (especially over low- albedo surfaces) compared with more mature instruments. Reported precision is around 0.6%.
GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite)
Platform: Japanโs GOSAT series (first satellite, nicknamed โIBUKIโ, launched in 2009; successor GOSAT- 2 launched in 2018). Operated by JAXA with involvement from Japanโs Ministry of the Environment and National Institute for Environmental Studies.
Capabilities: Dedicated greenhouse- gas mission using Fourier- transform spectrometers (TANSO-FTS / TANSO- FTS-2) to measure COโ and CHโ columns via solar backscatter in the SWIR.
Coverage and resolution: Sparser sampling, circular pixels of ~10.5 km diameter, typically spaced hundreds of kilometers apart, with a multi- day revisit cycle (e.g., ~3 days in standard mode for the original GOSAT). Higher retrieval success rate (~24%, limited mainly by clouds) than TROPOMI.
Strengths: More mature retrievals with generally lower biases. Often used as a reference or for bias correction of denser datasets like TROPOMI. Precision is typically reported around 0.7%. It has provided a long- term record of global methane trends since 2009.
Limitations: Much lower data density (roughly 100- 250 times fewer observations than TROPOMI in comparable periods), which limits fine- scale mapping.
How they are used together
TROPOMI supplies dense, high- resolution coverage, while GOSAT offers higher- accuracy, lower- bias measurements. Many studies (including the Johns Hopkins work) blend or jointly assimilate the two datasets. Machine- learning approaches are sometimes applied to correct TROPOMI biases relative to GOSAT (e.g., adjusting for aerosols, surface albedo, or viewing geometry). Validation against ground-based networks such as TCCON typically shows small global mean biases for both (often a few ppb), though regional differences can exceed 10- 20 ppb in challenging conditions.
These satellite XCHโ observations enable independent, top- down estimates of emissions that complement bottom- up inventories (such as the EPAโs Greenhouse Gas Inventory). In the Johns Hopkins analysis, the combined data supported the conclusion that U.S. oil and gas methane emissions stayed relatively flat (~9.3- 10.4 Tg/year) while intensity declined ~11% amid rising production.
U.S. oil and gas methane emission intensity declined 2019โ2024 with little indication of federal policy impact
U.S. oil and gas methane emissions remained essentially flat from 2019 to 2024 even as production increased, according to a Johns Hopkins University study.
The research, led by PhD student Ao Chen and senior researcher Scot Miller (associate professor of environmental health and engineering), was published in Communications Earth & Environment. It is covered in a Johns Hopkins Hub article by Hannah Robbins (published October 13, 2026).
Key findings
Researchers combined satellite data from TROPOMI and GOSAT with atmospheric inverse modeling to estimate emissions across the contiguous United States.
Total methane emissions from oil and gas activities stayed between roughly 9.3 and 10.4 teragrams (Tg) per year.
Emissions declined by 0.58 Tg from 2019- 2023, then rose slightly from 2023- 2024.
Emissions intensity (methane released relative to oil and gas production) fell by about 11%. This continues a longer-term downward trend rather than reflecting a sharp drop driven by recent policy.โ
Miller described it as a โgood news/bad news situationโ: emissions did not surge as some had feared amid major production growth (especially after the hydraulic fracturing boom), but oil and gas still account for a large share of U.S. methane emissions, and the study found no clear detectable reduction attributable to recent federal measures such as the Inflation Reduction Actโs methane- related provisions or related EPA rules. The authors note it is impossible to test the counterfactual; emissions might have been higher without those policies.
Why emissions stayed flat while production rose
Contributing factors include expanded pipeline infrastructure (allowing more gas to be captured and sold instead of flared or vented, particularly in areas like the Permian Basin), improved industry practices and leak detection, earlier regulations on newer facilities, and the rising economic value of natural gas as a commodity. Better protocols and reduced flaring have helped lower intensity even as overall output grew.
Regional notes
Texas (home to the largest oil- producing basin) saw an approximately 14% decline in oil and gas methane emissions. California and Colorado appear to be falling short of their own reduction goals.โ
Methane is a potent, shorter- lived greenhouse gas (roughly 30 times more powerful than COโ over short timescales). The authors stress that while falling intensity is positive, meaningful climate impact requires reductions in absolute emissions, and longer-term regulatory consistency may be needed to further incentivize cuts.
The original Hub article is available at hub.jhu.edu.
The U.S. federal government undertook a historic legislative effort to regulate methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors beginning in 2021 through the Inflation Reduction Act and Waste Emissions Charge. Despite a substantial rollback of these regulations in subsequent years, U.S. oil and gas methane emissions during this policy window are largely uncharacterized. Here we estimate changes in U.S. methane emissions both before and directly after this policy window (years 2019 to 2024) using an inverse model constrained by satellite observations. Overall, we find that oil and gas methane emissions decreased by 0.58 [0.30, 0.96] Tg from 2019 to 2023, but increased by 0.21 [-0.06, 0.53] Tg in the years following the new federal policy (2023โ2024). We find that methane emissions intensity declined by 11.1% [9.3%, 13.6%] from 2019 to 2024, likely as a result of gradual technological and operational developments, and existing federal regulations.
The Trump administration is preparing to scrap another Biden-era climate regulation, taking aim at a methane leak program that federal officials argue has burdened American oil and gas producers with billions in costs.
Former President Joe Bidenโs EPA finalized sweeping methane regulations in 2023, later establishing the super-emitter program as part of its 2024 oil and natural gas rules. The administration projected that the broader regulations would prevent approximately 58 million tons of methane emissions between 2024 and 2038.
Gas price. Rise in gas prices in USA. A burner with a flame and an arrow up, painted in the colors of the USA flag. The concept of rising gas or energy prices.
The Trump administration is preparing to scrap another Biden-era climate regulation, taking aim at a methane leak program that federal officials argue has burdened American oil and gas producers with billions in costs.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announced Wednesday that the agency will soon propose eliminating the Biden administrationโs โsuper-emitterโ program, which requires oil and gas operators to investigate reports of major methane leaks detected by third parties. The announcement came during an oil and gas industry meeting in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Former President Joe Bidenโs EPA finalized sweeping methane regulations in 2023, later establishing the super-emitter program as part of its 2024 oil and natural gas rules. The administration projected that the broader regulations would prevent approximately 58 million tons of methane emissions between 2024 and 2038.
โIn an upcoming proposal, which is currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget, U.S. EPA will take an important step in easing regulatory burdens and unleashing the Nationโs domestic energy supply by proposing the next step in the agencyโs wide-scale reconsideration of the Biden-Harris Administrationโs Clean Air Act rules for the oil and natural gas industry,โ an EPA spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
โBehind every barrel of oil and every cubic foot of natural gas produced in the U.S. are millions of workers, businesses, and the heartbeat of this nationโs economy; the Biden-era regulations posed a monumental threat,โ the spokesperson continued. โAs a result, Americans in every state suffered from higher energy prices. The U.S. produces energy in a better and more environmentally friendly way than anywhere else in the world.โ
The EPA estimates its broader proposed changes to the Biden-era oil and gas regulations would save $45 billion, according to the Wednesday press release. The agency also argues that the super-emitter program is ineffective and unnecessary to satisfy Clean Air Act requirements.
โThe Trump EPA knows our policies must match our nationโs potential and is working to unleash the full ability of American energy and lower costs for Americans by returning commonsense to regulations. The proposal will be released once it has been signed by the Administrator.โ
Methane, however, has become a major target of climate activists because of its ability to trap heat in the atmosphere. NASA identifies methane as the second-largest contributor to global warming behind carbon dioxide, estimating that rising methane concentrations have accounted for 20% to 30% of Earthโs warming since the Industrial Revolution.
The gas is also considerably more potent than carbon dioxide over shorter periods. One ton of methane can trap 84 to 87 times as much heat as a ton of carbon dioxide over 20 years, according to NASA. Methane generally remains in the atmosphere for only about a decade, compared with the centuries that carbon dioxide can persist.
Today, EPA Admin. Zeldin announced a rollback of federal rules that ensure oil and gas operators don't pollute our air. This decision clearly shows that Trump is putting polluters first over the wellbeing of the American people. #Methanepic.twitter.com/ZHumKW2iXj
— Conservation Voters New Mexico (@ProtectNM) October 7, 2026
Methane emissions are not exclusive to fossil fuel production. Agriculture, landfills and natural wetlands also release the gas, with NASA estimating that roughly 60% of global methane emissions come from human activities.
The super-emitter program allows EPA-certified groups, including nonprofit Carbon Mapper, to use satellites, aircraft and other technologies to detect methane leaks of at least 100 kilograms per hour, according to the agency.
Operators receiving qualifying notifications must investigate the suspected leaks, report their findings and make repairs when required under applicable EPA standards.
The Trump administration previously delayed future implementation of the program until January 2027. Its latest announcement goes further, proposing to eliminate the program altogether.
The proposed rollback comes as the administration continues dismantling Biden-era environmental regulations. The EPA previously repealed greenhouse gas standards for coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, a move the agency estimated would eliminate more than $300 billion in regulatory costs, as the Daily Caller News Foundation previously reported.
โAmericans must be able to afford to heat their homes in the winter and fill up their car and drive to work. They canโt do that when the people producing the energy are weighed down by unnecessary burdens,โ Zeldin said in the EPAโs press release. โThe Trump EPA is committed to fixing this so the U.S. can reach its full energy potential.โ
Scientists found evidence that Earthโs mantle was interacting with (and being oxidized by) surface oxygen as early as ~3.4 billion years ago, roughly a billion years before the Great Oxidation Event permanently raised atmospheric oxygen levels around 2.3- 2.2 billion years ago.
Sanukitoid petrogenesis refers to the origin and formation processes of a distinctive suite of intermediate to felsic igneous rocks (mainly diorites, monzodiorites, granodiorites, and related rocks) that are characteristic of the late Archean to early Paleoproterozoic (~3.0- 2.5 Ga, with some earlier examples from ~3.4- 2.9 Ga).
Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and intermittent โwhiffsโ of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have driven an early rise in sub-arc mantle fugacity before the Great Oxidation Event (GOE, ~2.3-2.2 Ga), reaching conditions comparable to the modern Earth by ~2.1 Ga.
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Scientists found evidence that Earthโs mantle was interacting with (and being oxidized by) surface oxygen as early as ~3.4 billion years ago, roughly a billion years before the Great Oxidation Event permanently raised atmospheric oxygen levels around 2.3- 2.2 billion years ago.
This comes from a University of Portsmouth- led international study published in Nature Geoscience (DOI: 10.1038/s41561-026-02119-6; lead author Dr. Hugo Moreira). It builds on earlier 2023 work by the same group linking mantle chemistry changes to the Great Oxidation Event itself.
Key methods and findings
Researchers analyzed tiny โtime capsulesโ: apatite mineral inclusions sealed inside durable zircon crystals from sanukitoid rocks (a distinctive type of magma linked to early subduction- like processes). Samples spanned more than 3 billion years and came from sites including the Pilbara Craton (Australia; ~3.42 and 2.9 Ga), Karelian and Kaapvaal Cratons (Finland and South Africa; ~2.7 Ga), Sรฃo Francisco Craton (Brazil; ~2.13 Ga), and Scotland (~425 Ma).โ
Zircons were dated precisely (some to exactly 3.4 billion years old) using laser techniques at Portsmouth.
Sulfur oxidation states (Sโถโบ, Sโดโบ, Sยฒโป) in the protected apatite inclusions were measured via sulfur K-edge micro- X- ray absorption near- edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF) in France. These states act as a sensitive proxy for oxygen fugacity (how oxidizing the magma and mantle environment was).โ
Results show a progressive increase in oxygen fugacity in the sub-arc mantle starting between ~3.4 and 3 billion years ago. The signature remained present across the studied interval and approached modern levels by ~2.1 billion years ago. This indicates that subduction was already recycling oxidized surface material (from early weathering and intermittent โwhiffsโof oxygen) deep into the mantle long before permanent atmospheric oxygenation.โ
The team ruled out alternative explanations (temperature and pressure variations, fractional crystallization, degassing) and noted that even small amounts of oxidized sulfur would have had a strong effect on the more reduced early mantle.
They propose feedback: early oxidative recycling raised sub-arc mantle oxidation โ more oxidizing volcanic gases โ more felsic crust and intensified surface weathering โ further contribution to long- term atmospheric oxygen buildup.
This provides the most continuous timeline yet of how surface oxygen and deep- Earth processes co-evolved. It supports the idea that plate tectonics (or early analogs) connected Earthโs exterior and interior reservoirs far earlier than often assumed, helping create conditions for a habitable planet.
The work is curiosity- driven basic research into Earthโs origins and the emergence of life, rather than an immediate practical application.โ
In short, the mantle was effectively โbreathingโ (exchanging and responding to) oxygen via recycling processes a billion years before free oxygen dominated the atmosphere.
Earth’s First ‘Breath’
Sanukitoid petrogenesis refers to the origin and formation processes of a distinctive suite of intermediate to felsic igneous rocks (mainly diorites, monzodiorites, granodiorites, and related rocks) that are characteristic of the late Archean to early Paleoproterozoic (~3.0- 2.5 Ga, with some earlier examples from ~3.4- 2.9 Ga).
They mark a transitional phase in Earthโs crustal evolution, bridging the dominant Archean tonalite- trondhjemite- granodiorite (TTG) magmatism and more modern- style calc- alkaline arc magmatism.
Geochemical Characteristics
Sanukitoids are defined by a dual โmantle and crustโ signature:
Mantle- compatible elements: High MgO (typically 1.5โ9 wt%), Mg# (molecular Mg/ (Mg and Fe) โ 45โ65 or higher in primitive members), Ni (>100 ppm in many definitions), Cr (>100- 200 ppm).
Incompatible elements: Strong enrichment in large- ion lithophile elements (LILE), especially KโO (1.5โ5 wt%), Ba, and Sr (Ba and Sr often >1,000โ1,400 ppm); high light rare- earth elements (LREE); relatively high KโO/NaโO compared with TTGs; fractionated REE patterns with low HREE and no or minor Eu anomalies.โ
Classic strict definition (Stern et al., 1989) focused on SiOโ 55โ- 60 wt% with the above traits, but the broader โsanukitoid suite and seriesโ includes more evolved members produced by fractional crystallization. High- Ti and low- Ti varieties are sometimes distinguished.
They resemble high- Mg andesites (sanukites) from the Setouchi volcanic belt in Japan, hence the name.
Petrogenetic Models
The consensus is that sanukitoids form by interaction between mantle peridotite and a recycled crustal component (typically TTG- like or slab- derived felsic melts, possibly with fluids and/or sediments).
Two main (not mutually exclusive) pathways are debated:
Two- stage (metasomatism and later melting) process (most widely invoked)
Stage 1: Subduction- related fluids and or silicate melts (from partial melting of subducted oceanic crust and metabasite, often eclogite- facies, ยฑ sediments) metasomatize the mantle wedge or subcontinental lithospheric mantle. This creates enriched domains (e.g., amphibole- or phlogopite- bearing veins).
Stage 2: Later thermal perturbation (slab break-off, mantle plume, or continued subduction heating) causes partial melting of this metasomatized peridotite, generating the sanukitoid parental magma.โ
One- stage (assimilation and reaction) process
TTG- like or hydrous eclogite melts directly react with and assimilate mantle peridotite during ascent, producing hybrid melts with the characteristic dual geochemistry.โ
Recent Ti- isotope studies (ฮดโดโนTi) of primitive sanukitoids show elevated values requiring a hydrous metabasite (eclogite) melt component formed in equilibrium with residual rutile. This favors fluid- fluxed melting of eclogite in a subduction- like setting and indicates parental magmas were water- rich and relatively oxidized, comparable to modern arc magmas.โ
Melting conditions are typically high- pressure (>1- 2.5 GPa, corresponding to ~35- 80 and km depth), hydrous, and oxidized. Differentiation often involves amphibole ยฑ plagioclase ยฑ orthopyroxene fractionation, sometimes at lower pressures where a distinct cotectic may control the series.
Geodynamic Significance
Sanukitoids appear mainly near the Archean- Proterozoic transition and are linked to the progressive cooling of Earth and the evolution of subduction:
Early Archean: High heat production favored extensive slab melting โ pure TTG magmas with limited mantle interaction.
Late Archean: Reduced slab melting โ more interaction with the mantle wedge โ sanukitoids (hybrids).
Post ~2.5 Ga: Predominantly fluid- fluxed melting of the mantle wedge (modern- style arcs), with slab melts rarer.โ
They are therefore key evidence for the onset or maturation of plate- tectonic (or proto- subduction) processes, deep crust- mantle recycling, and the changing nature of continental crust growth.
In the context of the recent Nature Geoscience study on mantle oxidation, sanukitoids serve as excellent monitors of sub- arc mantle redox state because their sources record metasomatism by recycled surface materials.
Modern Analogues and Distribution
Phanerozoic high- Mg diorites, vaugnerites, appinites, and some post-collisional I- type granitoids share similarities and may represent analogues. Archean examples occur worldwide (e.g., Superior Province, Pilbara, Kaapvaal, Karelian, North China, Amazonian/Carajรกs, Yilgarn, and Sรฃo Francisco cratons).
In summary, sanukitoid petrogenesis records hybridization between depleted mantle and recycled crustal melts and fluids in a subduction- related setting under hotter Archean conditions.
This dual signature makes them invaluable for tracking early Earth geodynamics, mantle metasomatism, and the co- evolution of crust and mantle.
Progressive oxidative weathering raised sub-arc mantle fugacity on the Archaean Earth
Abstract (summary)
In the modern Earth, sub- arc mantle oxygen fugacity is linked to addition of sulfur species by slab fluids. It has been unclear to what extent volatile recycling controlled redox changes in the early Earth.
Using sulfur K -edge micro- X- ray absorption near- edge structure (ฮผ-XANES) spectroscopy, the authors measured the relative abundances of Sโถโบ, Sโดโบ, and Sยฒโป in apatite inclusions hosted in geochemically characterized and precisely dated zircons from sub- arc sanukitoid magmas spanning 3.4 billion years of Earth history.
Key results:
The sub- arc mantle shows a marked increase in oxygen fugacity (fOโ) between 3.4 and 3.0 Ga.
It is substantially more oxidized than the unaltered ambient upper mantle.
This cannot be explained by fractional crystallization, degassing, or intrinsic mantle processes.
The authors propose that progressive oxidative weathering increased the proportion of oxidized sulfur recycled into mantle- wedge sources.
This established a feedback between subduction of surface materials and progressively more oxidized arc magmatism.
Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and intermittent โwhiffsโ of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have driven an early rise in sub-arc mantle fugacity before the Great Oxidation Event (GOE, ~2.3-2.2 Ga), reaching conditions comparable to the modern Earth by ~2.1 Ga.
Methods highlights
Samples: Geochemically coherent sanukitoids (metasomatized- mantle- derived magmas) from the Pilbara Craton (Australia; 3.42 and 2.9 Ga), Karelian Craton (Finland; 2.7 Ga), Kaapvaal Craton (South Africa; 2.7 Ga), Sรฃo Francisco Craton (Brazil; 2.13 Ga), and Northern Highland Terrane (Scotland; 0.425 Ga).
337 analyses on 39 apatite inclusions + 213 analyses on 65 matrix apatites, performed at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF, ID21 beamline).
Sโถโบ/S_total ratios converted to ฮFMQ (deviation from the fayalite- magnetite- quartz buffer) using an experimental oxybarometer.
Supporting U- Pb dating, trace- element, and oxygen- isotope data on the host zircons.
Broader implication
This provides the first continuous record showing that surface oxidative weathering products were already being recycled into the deep Earth via early subduction- like processes more than a billion years before permanent atmospheric oxygenation. The mantle was not a passive spectator; it participated in a feedback loop that helped shape the conditions leading to a habitable, oxygenated Earth.
In the modern Earth, sub-arc mantle oxygen fugacity is intrinsically associated with addition of sulfur species by slab fluids. However, it is unclear to what extent recycling of volatiles controlled redox changes of the sub-arc mantle in the early Earth. Here we use sulfur K-edge micro-X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy to measure the relative abundances of S6+, S4+ and S2โ in apatite inclusions hosted by geochemically characterized and dated zircons from sub-arc sanukitoid magmas that span 3.4 billion years of Earthโs geological history. The sub-arc mantle shows marked increase in oxygen fugacity between 3.4 and 3.0 billion years ago (Ga). It is substantially more oxidized than unaltered ambient upper mantle, a characteristic that cannot be explained by fractionation, degassing or intrinsic mantle processes. We propose that progressive oxidative weathering enhanced the proportion of oxidized sulfur recycled to mantle wedge sources, establishing feedback between subduction of surface materials and incrementally oxidized arc magmatism. Early subduction involving inorganic oxidation and โwhiffsโ of oxygen between 3.4 and 2.7 Ga may have regulated an early increase in fugacity of the sub-arc mantle before the Great Oxidation Event, matching similar conditions to the modern Earth by 2.1 Ga.
Kim Rogalin posted about the controversy over the (now removed) 4th edition of the Federal Judicial Center’s Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence from the National Academy of Sciences.
Bradley says his points about RCP 8.5 were never directly answered, and that Climategate should not be forgotten, quoting Andrew Dessler from 2009 calling the emails “embarrassing and a public-relations disaster for science.”
The problem with that chapter centered on the fact it was not neutral or unbiased, as the science manual is supposed to be, but was written by activist lawyers and academics actively involved in climate lawsuits filed across the nation, plus plaintiffs, advisors, and climate experts participating in those trials. Being written by public advocates of climate lawsuits, while citing materials and using whole sections written by attorneys and academics testifying for the plaintiffs in those lawsuits, doesnโt just tiptoe along the line of the appearance of impropriety. It is flat-out improper and should have been sufficient by itself to disqualify the climate science document from inclusion in the FJC science manualโฆ.
The Academy did the right thing by removing the climate chapter from its website and formally investigating.
Jim Cooper Exchange
Enter Jim Cooper, Professor Emeritus at the University of Minnesota, who commented.
What BS. Members of National Academy of Sciences are elected based of quality of their scientific research not their political positions. Members are elected โฆ in recognition of their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research. Membership is a widely accepted mark of excellence in science and is considered one of the highest honors that a scientist can receive. Current NAS membership totals approximately 2,700 members and 500 international members, of which approximately 200 have received Nobel prizes.โ [NAS here]
I then engaged him as follows:
Bradley: Shame that climate science ruined the reputation of science in general. From Climategate to RCP 8.5.
Jim Cooper: No the shame is folks unwillingness to read the scientific literature . As retired scientist and Scientific Journal Editor, I know that the scientific evidence for Climate Change is robust and the quality of the research on par with other scientific fields. The exchange of personal opinions in a few emails did not affect the quality of the published research. I challenge you to prove otherwise using links to credible documentation.
Bradley: Are/were you part of the problem? Climategate was about real-time cheating for โthe causeโ (and getting called out for it) and an admitted promise to attempt to skew peer review. Read the quotations! Secondly, what about all the journal articles based on RCP 8.5. Retraction? Climate models are not scienceโฆ.
Bradley: What about the busted paradigm of RCP 8.5-based peer-reviewed articles? Why did the profession turn the speculative (and now rejected) model scenario into a base case? Politicization or mass intellectual error?
Cooper: Again and again I will remind you and others that posts without links to credible domination for claims are noise. Links please, otherwise I will not respond.
Bradley: It is international news in the climate community that RCP 8.5 was formally rejected after a decade of primary use. It was the basis for literally thousands of published climate articles. Roger Pielke Jr. has covered this in detail. Are you following the debate? So again my question: โWhat about the busted paradigm of RCP 8.5-based peer-reviewed articles?โ rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead
Conclusion
My points were never directly answered by the self-anointed authority. If I had made the same case in a journal article, providing a link, what would Cooper have said? My guess is that he would state that it was not a quality journal. Such is the narrative that the experts do not want to disturb.
Climategate livesโand should never be forgotten. As a leading climate alarmist-qua-scientist, Andrew Dessler, stated back in 2009: โThere is no doubt that these emails are embarrassing and a public-relations disaster for science.โ
Jim Cooper Background
In a previous Facebook post concerning the Climate Change Reality Forum, Cooper wrote:
The goal of this site is: โThe Climate change reality forum is an open Facebook group established to reach people with information that differs from the IPCCโs official position on this subject.โ IPCC presents scientific research findings and the only valid debate must be with scientific research findings accompanied by full citation of sources not opinions. But I find that the latter predominant thus are not honest discussions of reality.
This led to more than one hundred comments, with Cooper responding to criticism by stating:
Itโs your responsibility to prove your claims using data and/or previous published research findings. Thatโs part of critical thinking, and I repeat in science all statements and/or claims must be backed by citation of credible documentation. Please provide a link to paper where the figure appearsโฆ.
How trueโexcept when it comes to climate science and other politicized areas of scientific research.
The first human inhabitants of the Japanese archipelago have been traced to the Paleolithic, around 38- 39,000 years ago. The Jลmon period followed, lasting roughly from c. 14,000- 13,000 BC to about 1000- 300 BC.
Over 10,000- 14,500 Paleolithic sites are now known across the archipelago, one of the densest concentrations in the world, aided by widespread volcanic tephra layers (especially the Aira- Tanzawa tephra) that provide excellent chronological markers.
The Paleolithic ends with the appearance of pottery (among the worldโs oldest) around 16,000- 14,000 years ago. This marks the beginning of the Jลmon culture, characterized by greater sedentism, more complex hunter- gatherer adaptations, and the famous cord- marked ceramics.
AI generated by Grok
The first human inhabitants of the Japanese archipelago have been traced to the Paleolithic, around 38- 39,000 years ago. The Jลmon period followed, lasting roughly from c. 14,000- 13,000 BC to about 1000- 300 BC.
Paleolithic period
Hunter- gatherers reached the islands during the Late Pleistocene. Reliable archaeological evidence places the earliest human presence at approximately 38- 40,000 years ago (some sites, such as Lake Nojiri, yield dates near 37,900 years BP).
Japanโs acidic soils preserve few bones, so the record rests mainly on stone tools, including distinctive edge- ground axes more than 30,000 years old. People almost certainly arrived by watercraft; land bridges existed at times of lower sea level, but the islands were not continuously connected.
Sites on Okinawa (Yamashita Cave, ~32,000 years ago) and Ishigaki further document early settlement. These groups hunted now- extinct megafauna such as the elephant Palaeoloxodon naumanni and the giant deer Sinomegaceros yabei.
Jลmon period
Named for its characteristic cord-marked (jลmon) pottery, among the worldโs oldest ceramics, appearing by ~16,500- 14,000 years ago, the period is defined by a predominantly hunter- gatherer culture that achieved notable sedentism and complexity.
People lived in pit dwellings, exploited rich marine and forest resources, and produced elaborate pottery, figurines (dogลซ), and lacquerware. Population size remained relatively small for millennia after isolation from the continent (driven by post-glacial sea-level rise). Genetic studies indicate the Jลmon lineage diverged from continental East Asian populations roughly 20,000- 15,000 years ago and maintained a distinct profile until later admixture.
The Jลmon era ended with the arrival of continental influences that inaugurated the Yayoi period (wet- rice agriculture, metallurgy, and new population movements), followed by the Kofun, Nara, and Heian periods that saw the formation of a centralized state and the adoption of writing and Buddhism.โ
This summary draws primarily from the established archaeological and genetic consensus reflected in major reference works and recent ancient- DNA research.
Japanese Paleolithic period (ๆง็ณๅจๆไปฃ, kyลซsekki jidai)
The Japanese Paleolithic is the earliest phase of human occupation of the Japanese archipelago, defined as the pre- pottery period. It is generally dated from roughly 40,000- 36,000 BC (or about 38,000- 40,000 years ago) to around 14,000- 10,000 BC, when pottery appears and the Jลmon period begins.โ
Recent consensus places reliable evidence for modern humans (Homo sapiens) and the Early Upper Paleolithic from approximately 38,000- 36,000 years ago onward. Earlier claims of Lower or Middle Paleolithic occupation (tens or hundreds of thousands of years ago) were largely discredited after a major archaeological scandal.
Chronology and Environment
During cold phases of the Late Pleistocene (especially the Last Glacial Maximum), lower sea levels transformed the geography:
Paleo- Honshu: Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu formed a single large island.
Paleo- Hokkaido Peninsula: linked to the Asian continent via Sakhalin.
Expanded Ryukyu Islands.
People were mobile hunter- gatherers who hunted megafauna such as the straight- usked elephant Palaeoloxodon naumanni and the giant deer Sinomegaceros yabei. One key site, Lake Nojiri (Nagano Prefecture), dates to about 37,900 years BP and preserves evidence of butchery of these animals.
Japanโs volcanic soils are highly acidic, so human skeletal remains are extremely rare. Most evidence consists of stone tools. Limited fossils come from Okinawa (e.g., Yamashita Cave ~32,000 years ago; Shiraho Saonetabaru Cave) and a few main- island sites such as Hamakita (Negata) in Shizuoka.
Stone Tool Technology
The Japanese Paleolithic is notable for several distinctive features:
Early appearance of edge- ground and polished stone tools (axes) around 30,000 BC, technology elsewhere associated with the much later Neolithic.
Flake industries with trapezoids and denticulate in the earliest Upper Paleolithic (~39- 37 ka cal BP) on Paleo- Honshu.
Later development of blade technology, knife- shaped tools, and eventually micro blades.
Evidence of trap- pit hunting and possible early use of watercraft.
These assemblages show both local innovation and connections to contemporary industries in China and the Korean Peninsula.โ
Over 10,000- 14,500 Paleolithic sites are now known across the archipelago, one of the densest concentrations in the world, aided by widespread volcanic tephra layers (especially the Aira- Tanzawa tephra) that provide excellent chronological markers.
History of Research and the Fujimura Hoax
Systematic Paleolithic archaeology in Japan began relatively late. The first recognized site was Iwajuku (Gunma Prefecture), discovered by Tadahiro Aizawa in 1946 and excavated in 1949. Before then, excavators typically stopped at Jลmon layers, assuming no earlier occupation.
From the 1970s onward, amateur archaeologist Shinichi Fujimura reported a series of sensational early finds, pushing dates back as far as 600,000 years and establishing an apparent Early and Middle Paleolithic sequence. In November 2000 the newspaper Mainichi Shimbun published photographs of Fujimura burying artifacts at the Kamitakamori site. He later admitted to planting genuine (mostly later) tools at dozens of sites (at least 42 confirmed by the Japanese Archaeological Association).
The scandal invalidated the majority of claimed pre- 40,000- year assemblages and forced a major reassessment. Today only a handful of sites are considered possible candidates for activity before ~40,000 years ago, and the widely accepted start of continuous human presence is placed around 38,000- 35,000 years ago.
Transition to the Jลmon Period
The Paleolithic ends with the appearance of pottery (among the worldโs oldest) around 16,000- 14,000 years ago. This marks the beginning of the Jลmon culture, characterized by greater sedentism, more complex hunter- gatherer adaptations, and the famous cord- marked ceramics.
In summary, the Japanese Paleolithic represents the first successful colonization of the archipelago by modern humans, featuring distinctive early ground-stone technology and a rich, well- dated archaeological record that has been refined through rigorous post- 2000 re- evaluation.
At a campsite in the Paleolithic Period in Japan. Picture painted by Shuichi Hosono, based on the excavation findings at the Tomizawa archaeological site in Miyagi Prefecture. (Courtesy of the Sendai City Board of Education.) Paleolithic Period in Japan – Unfamiliar Japan Tours
Jลmon period (็ธๆๆไปฃ, Jลmon jidai)
The Jลmon period is a major prehistoric era in Japan, lasting approximately from c. 14,000 BC to 300 BC (some chronologies place the start as early as ~16,500- 14,500 years ago with the earliest pottery, and the end as late as ~300โ- 100 BC). It follows the Paleolithic and precedes the Yayoi period.
The name comes from the distinctive โcord- markedโ (jลmon) decoration on pottery, a term coined by American zoologist Edward S. Morse after his 1877 excavation of the ลmori shell mounds near Tokyo.โ
The Jลmon people were primarily sedentary or semi- sedentary hunter -gatherer- fishers who also practiced limited plant cultivation. They achieved a high degree of cultural complexity without full- scale agriculture or metallurgy until the very end of the period. Their society is often described as a sophisticated Mesolithic or early Neolithic culture adapted to Japanโs rich post- glacial environment.
Chronology
The period is conventionally divided into six phases based mainly on pottery typology (with supporting radiocarbon dates).
Approximate ranges (BCE) are:
Phase
Approximate dates
Key characteristics
Incipient
13,750- 8,500
Earliest pottery (among the worldโs oldest); transition from Paleolithic; simple dwellings
Initial
8,500- 5,000
Bullet- shaped pots; first clear settlements and graves
Dates vary slightly by region and source; the Middle phase is widely regarded as the height of Jลmon cultural florescence.
Lifestyle, Settlements, and Economy
People lived in pit dwellings (shallow excavated floors with thatched roofs supported by posts), often arranged around open central spaces. Settlements ranged from small clusters to large villages. One of the most famous is Sannai- Maruyama (Aomori Prefecture, northern Honshu), a major Middle Jลmon hub settlement with large buildings, storage pits, and evidence of long- term occupation.
Subsistence relied on:
Hunting (deer, wild boar; use of bows, arrows, and dogs)
Fishing and shellfish gathering (extensive shell mounds)
Gathering of nuts (chestnuts, walnuts, acorns), roots, and other plants
Limited cultivation of useful plants (e.g., chestnuts, lacquer trees, some beans)
Tools and crafts included polished stone implements, bone and antler tools, lacquerware (among the oldest in the world), baskets, and jewelry. Ritual objects such as clay figurines (dogลซ) are characteristic, especially in later phases.
Pottery
Jลmon pottery is hand- built (coil method), low-fired earthenware and ranks among the earliest ceramics known globally (earliest examples ~14,500- 13,000 BC from sites such as Odai Yamamoto I in Aomori).
Styles evolved from simple pointed- or rounded-bottom vessels to elaborate, highly decorated forms, most famously the ornate โflame- styleโ (kaen- dokฤซ) vessels of the Middle Jลmon. Decoration used cord impressions, shells, sticks, and applied clay.
Archaeology and Key Sites
Systematic study began in the late 19th century. Japan has thousands of Jลmon sites. Notable examples include:
Sannai-Maruyama (Aomori): large Middle Jลmon settlement
ลyu Stone Circles and other ritual sites in the northeast
Shell mounds such as ลmori and Natsushima
Sites in the UNESCO World Heritage โJomon Prehistoric Sites in Northern Japanโ serial property
Northern Japan (Tลhoku and Hokkaido) preserves particularly rich remains due to environmental conditions and later cultural continuity with the Ainu.
Genetics and Origins
Ancient DNA studies show the Jลmon lineage diverged from continental East Asian populations roughly 20,000- 15,000 years ago, coinciding with post-glacial isolation of the archipelago.
They maintained a relatively small effective population size for millennia and show some regional diversity, with later gene flow. Modern Japanese people carry roughly 10% autosomal Jลmon ancestry on average (higher in some regions and among the Ainu). The Jลmon were largely assimilated by incoming Yayoi migrants (associated with rice agriculture and Northeast Asian ancestry) beginning around 900- 300 BC.
End of the Period
The Jลmon era gradually gave way to the Yayoi period with the introduction of wet- rice agriculture, metallurgy, and new population movements from the Korean Peninsula and continent. In some northern areas, Jลmon- derived cultures persisted longer (sometimes called Epi- Jลmon).
The Jลmon period represents one of the longest continuous hunters- gatherer traditions with advanced material culture in the world, lasting roughly 10,000- 14,000 years and leaving a lasting genetic and cultural legacy in Japan.
The Japanese Paleolithic (roughly 40,000/38,000- 14,000 years ago) occurred during the Late Pleistocene, spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 2. Climate was generally colder and often drier than today, with significant fluctuations that reshaped landscapes, vegetation, fauna, and human adaptations.
Key Climate Features
Early to middle phase (MIS 3, ~57,000- 29,000 years ago): Relatively warmer and more temperate conditions in places, though cooling overall. Lake Nojiri sediment records show temperate climates supporting megafauna around 53- 37 ka cal BP.
Cooling toward the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM): Gradual cooling from ~38 ka onward.
Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, roughly 26,000- 19,000 years ago, peak ~24- 20 ka): Coldest phase. Mean temperatures were several degrees lower (estimates of 5- 9ยฐC cooler in August depending on region; annual means ~6- 7ยฐC cooler in some southern areas like Okinawa). Precipitation was often reduced, with drier conditions in many areas. Global sea levels dropped by ~120โ140 m.โ
Late Glacial and deglaciation (~18,000- 14,000 years ago):Rapid warming, increased humidity, and major vegetation shifts after ~14- 15 ka.
Volcanic tephra layers and pollen records (e.g., from Lake Nojiri) provide high- resolution proxies for these changes.
Geographic and Environmental Impacts
Lower sea levels created three main landmasses:
Paleo- Honshu (Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu as one large island).
Paleo- Hokkaido Peninsula (linked to Sakhalin and the Asian continent).
Expanded Ryukyu Islands.
This facilitated some animal migrations earlier in the Pleistocene but required watercraft for initial human arrival during MIS 3-2 (no continuous land bridges to the continent at the time of Homo sapiens colonization).
Vegetation:
Much of the archipelago was dominated by coniferous forests (subarctic/boreal types with Picea, Abies, Tsuga, Pinus).
Northern Hokkaido: parkland and tundra- like conditions.
Temperate broadleaf trees retreated to southern or humid valley refugia.
Abrupt post- LGM shift (~14 ka) from subarctic conifer forests to deciduous broadleaf forests.
Megafauna declined or went extinct around or after the LGM (~26,000 years ago on Paleo-Honshu for some large species), shifting hunting toward medium/small animals (deer, wild boar).
Impacts on Human Populations and Culture
Settlement and mobility: Site numbers increased after ~38 ka with the arrival of modern humans, but declined significantly during the LGM in areas like Lake Nojiri. High-altitude resource areas (e.g., Central Highlands obsidian sources) saw reduced use in the early LGM due to cold conditions.โ
Subsistence: Heavy reliance on hunting in cold, open or coniferous landscapes with limited reliable plant foods (except in the Ryukyus). Post- LGM vegetation change supported greater plant use and set the stage for Jลmon adaptations.
Technology and culture: Lithic industries shifted in response to environmental change, e.g., trapezoids and edge- ground axes early on; backed blades, points, and later micro blades during colder phases. Different strategies developed in open northern landscapes versus forested Paleo-Honshu. Population fluctuations and cultural shifts (e.g., from Early to Middle Upper Paleolithic) correlate with cooling stadial.โ
Overall adaptation: Humans showed flexible responses, adjusting mobility ranges, toolkits, and land use. The cold, unstable climate favored mobile hunter- gatherer lifestyles. Post- LGM warming and forest change coincided with increased activity and the transition to pottery- using Jลmon cultures (~15- 13 ka).
In summary, the cold, fluctuating climate of the Japanese Paleolithic, especially the LGM, drove major landscape restructuring through sea- level drop, forest shifts, and faunal change. These pressures shaped human colonization patterns, technological innovation, population dynamics, and the eventual transition to the more sedentary Jลmon period as conditions warmed.
The Jลmon period (c. 14,000- 300 BC) unfolded during the Holocene, a time of post- glacial warming after the Last Glacial Maximum. Climate was generally warmer and wetter than the preceding Paleolithic, with rising sea levels that fully isolated the Japanese archipelago from the Asian continent. This created rich, diverse ecosystems that supported a long-lasting sedentary hunter- gatherer culture, though fluctuations still drove major cultural and demographic changes.
Key Climate Phases
Early Holocene and Incipient- Initial and Incipient (c. 14,000- 5,000 BC): Rapid warming after the Younger Dryas, with the Bรธlling- Allerรธd and Pre- Boreal warm intervals. Sea levels rose, forming productive coastal environments and shellfish-rich intertidal zones. Broadleaf forests (deciduous nut-bearing trees such as chestnut, oak, and walnut) expanded northward, replacing coniferous forests.
Holocene Climatic Optimum and Early- Middle Jลmon (roughly 9,000- 5,000 BP, peaking in the Middle Jลmon): Warmest and most stable phase. Temperatures were higher than today in many areas, with increased precipitation and strong East Asian summer monsoon influence. This supported peak population density, large settlements, and cultural florescence.
Cooling after the Middle Jลmon (from ~4,500- 4,200 BP onward): Gradual cooling, including the global 4.2 ka event (a significant cool, dry episode). Sea levels fluctuated and sometimes fell slightly. Evergreen forests expanded in the west, while conifers increased in some northern and inland areas. Other shorter Bond events (e.g., 8.2 ka) also caused temporary downturns.โ
Volcanic events (such as the massive Kikai- Akahoya eruption ~7.3 ka) added abrupt local stresses through ash fall and possible short- term cooling.
Environmental Impacts
Sea- level rise created extensive coastlines, lagoons, and shell mounds, boosting marine resources (fish, shellfish).
Forest succession provided abundant plant foods (nuts, chestnuts managed through hansaibai, selective tending), enabling greater sedentism than pure hunting.
Regional differences: Northern Japan (Tลhoku, Hokkaido) remained cooler and more marine-oriented; western Japan saw stronger evergreen forest expansion.
Impacts on Jลmon Society and Culture
Population and settlements: Numbers and size of sites peaked during the warm Middle Jลmon (e.g., the large Sannai- Maruyama settlement in Aomori thrived ~5.9- 4.2 ka under warm conditions that favored chestnut management). Cooling after ~4.2 ka correlated with population decline, abandonment of large โhubโ settlements, and a shift to smaller, more dispersed communities, especially in eastern and northern Japan.โ
Subsistence adaptations: Warmer phases supported intensive plant use, fishing, and limited cultivation. Cooling reduced some terrestrial resources, prompting greater reliance on marine foods, food sharing, and possible dietary stress (e.g., evidence of increased scurvy in some Late Jลmon groups). People managed chestnut and lacquer trees, showing resilience.
Cultural responses: Pottery production expanded with warming and resource abundance. Technological and stylistic changes (projectile points, settlement organization) tracked climatic shifts. In Hokkaido, climate influenced the spread of related cultures through changes in ocean currents and westerlies.
Resilience and limits: Jลmon societies adapted flexibly for millennia through mobility, resource diversification, and social sharing. However, prolonged cooling and resource scarcity contributed to the eventual decline of classic Jลmon patterns and the transition toward Yayoi agriculture and migration.
In short, the post- glacial warming of the Holocene enabled the Jลmonโs remarkable longevity and complexity by creating productive forests and coasts. Yet cooling events, especially the 4.2 ka episode, triggered population reorganization, settlement collapse in some regions, and adaptive shifts that ultimately paved the way for the Yayoi period.
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