{"id":487649,"date":"2026-11-13T07:56:56","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T14:56:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=487649"},"modified":"2026-11-13T07:56:58","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T14:56:58","slug":"stop-drinking-first-streets-poisoned-kool-aid-grist-climate-change-isnt-causing-housing-values-to-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=487649","title":{"rendered":"Stop Drinking First Street\u2019s Poisoned Kool- Aid, Grist, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing Housing Values to Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Editorial
AI generated by Meta<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By H. Sterling Burnett<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gr\ufeffist<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

An article published by Grist, \u201cThe American Dream wasn\u2019t built for climate change<\/a>,\u201d posits that climate change is making it hard, if not impossible, for many people to buy homes because it is increasing extreme weather and resulting in rising insurance costs. This is false. Extreme weather events are not becoming more common, and so can\u2019t be responsible for rising insurance costs. To the extent that the costs related to natural disasters are rising, it is due to more people and more expensive development in areas prone to periodic extreme weather events, referred to in the literature as the expanding bullseye effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOwning a home has long been seen as a cornerstone of the American Dream, a way to build wealth that you could use one day to pay for your children\u2019s education and fund your retirement,\u201d writes Kate Yoder, senior staff writer for Grist. \u201cThat arrangement was always more precarious than it was made out to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut as fires and floods damage homes and drive-up insurance rates, pouring your life savings into a house has become riskier than ever,\u201d Yoder continues. \u201cIn a report called \u2018Property Prices in Peril,\u2019 the firm First Street projected last year that climate risks could knock nearly $1.5 trillion off the value of American homes by 2055. For some people, the sociologist Rebecca Elliott wrote, \u2018the American dream of homeownership may become a nightmare.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Home ownership has long been part and parcel of, if not synonymous with, the \u201cAmerican Dream,\u201d and it has become more difficult over time as housing prices and insurance costs have risen, with demand rising faster than supply and material costs, and thus replacement values, increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, climate change is not a factor in the rising cost of home buying or ownership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the series of informational posts at Climate at a Glance<\/a> demonstrate, there is little if any evidence that extreme weather is becoming more frequent or severe when it does occur. Drought<\/a>, extreme heat<\/a>, floods<\/a>, heat waves<\/a>, hurricanes<\/a>, and tornadoes<\/a> have not become worse over the past century of modest warming, while wildfires<\/a> and deaths related to temperatures<\/a> or extreme weather<\/a> have fallen dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grist\u2019s story is misguided, in large part, because it is based on a biased and untrustworthy source for its claims about why home ownership is becoming more difficult. First Street is not a neutral property risk analysis firm; rather, it was explicitly founded to connect climate change to property risk, nothing else. First Street starts with the assumption that climate change threatens homes and businesses and then designs its analyses to make that connection and demonstrate how bad the threat could be. First Street is a climate alarm advocacy group rather than a legitimate risk assessment firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, for example, Climate Realism<\/em> has debunked multiple mainstream media reports based on First Street analyses in which First Street claimed that floods, wildfires, and property losses related to other extreme weather events were increasing due to climate change, making neighborhoods and cities uninhabitable, uninsurable, or impossible to get affordable insurance for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most salient bit of data debunking First Street\u2019s claims that climate change is and will negatively affect property values is the fact that, despite repeated similar reports produced by the firm in previous years, property values have continued to increase rather than decline as predicted. Every year First Street offers a new report claiming climate change will cause property values to decline by trillions of dollars, with each new report citing ever greater losses in value. Yet every year, property values in the areas it focuses on increase, as discussed here<\/a> and here<\/a>. In point of fact, if anything is causing a decline in the value of some properties, as explained in a report by the American Energy Institute<\/a>, it is property listers, brokers, and real estate firms using or referencing First Street\u2019s subjective rating system, a rating scheme whose metrics and methodology are kept secret and whose ratings conflict with official ratings by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rising prices, not falling prices, are the real threat to the American Dream of home ownership. These are driven not by climate change but by a combination of increasing demand while supply is limited by building codes incorporating climate concerns; higher material costs and supply chain shortages; higher property taxes, with the increases reflecting higher home values; higher interest rates due to inflation and Federal Reserve policies; and higher insurance costs reflecting the increased costs of reconstructing and repairing homes after claims due to higher labor and material costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end, had Grist been concerned about truth and integrity, it would have checked its source, First Street, particularly its track record of bad predictions, data on natural disaster trends, and simple economic theory. Home prices are rising, reflecting increasing demand and limited supply, not fear of climate change impacts suppressing home values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Senior writer Kate Yoder wrote that climate change is making homeownership harder because fires and floods are damaging homes and driving up insurance. She cited First Street’s report “Property Prices in Peril” which projected climate risks could knock nearly $1.5 trillion off the value of American homes by 2055.<\/p>\n

Grist also cited polling that 58% of voters believe climate change will hinder their ability to achieve the American Dream.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":487650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"A Climate Realism analysis challenges Grist\u2019s claims that climate change drives home prices and insurance costs, citing weather trends and housing data.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing Home Values to Decline","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831284,691818056,691819743,691818514,691847480,691831276,691847481,691819088,691842453,691847479,691847482],"class_list":["post-487649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-american-dream","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-extreme-weather","tag-first-street-analyses","tag-grist-article","tag-housing-values","tag-natural-disasters","tag-rising-insurance-costs","tag-senior-writer-kate-yoder","tag-sociologist-rebecca-elliott"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-22Rj","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":292725,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292725","url_meta":{"origin":487649,"position":0},"title":"Grist: LGBTQ+ Outreach Therapy Might Help Climate Deniers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Why people still fall for fake news about climate change","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Adam-Pulicicchio-Dec-30-17-Jones-Public-Library-East-Toronto-Drag-Queens-Storytime-08-1680x0-c-default.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Adam-Pulicicchio-Dec-30-17-Jones-Public-Library-East-Toronto-Drag-Queens-Storytime-08-1680x0-c-default.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Adam-Pulicicchio-Dec-30-17-Jones-Public-Library-East-Toronto-Drag-Queens-Storytime-08-1680x0-c-default.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Adam-Pulicicchio-Dec-30-17-Jones-Public-Library-East-Toronto-Drag-Queens-Storytime-08-1680x0-c-default.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Adam-Pulicicchio-Dec-30-17-Jones-Public-Library-East-Toronto-Drag-Queens-Storytime-08-1680x0-c-default.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":435715,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435715","url_meta":{"origin":487649,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Chicago Sun Times, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing High Insurance Cost in Illinois","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/30\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article at the Chicago Sun Times (CST) claims that \u201cClimate change is fueling a surge in Illinois home insurance premiums,\u201d via increases in severe weather. This is false. Severe weather is not getting worse in Illinois, so it cannot be the driver for insurance costs. 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