{"id":480406,"date":"2026-10-19T07:17:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T14:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=480406"},"modified":"2026-10-19T07:17:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T14:17:50","slug":"record-el-nino-depends-whos-counting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=480406","title":{"rendered":"Record El Ni\u00f1o? Depends who’s counting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Map
AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, whether the current (2026) El Ni\u00f1o ranks as a record depends on the metric, region, and baseline used by different agencies.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Britain\u2019s Met Office<\/strong> has described this year\u2019s event as \u201cunprecedented\u201d<\/strong>, citing absolute (raw) sea- surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific that have surpassed levels from previous El Ni\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan\u2019s Meteorological Agency (JMA)<\/strong> declared it the strongest on record. In September 2026, the sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Ni\u00f1o 3 region (eastern Pacific)<\/strong> reached +4.0\u00b0C, exceeding the previous high of +3.6\u00b0C from December 1997 (records back to 1949). JMA states the strongest conditions are virtually certain to continue into boreal winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. NOAA (which primarily monitors the neighboring Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region in the east- central Pacific) has not yet called it the outright record in its books.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It defines El Ni\u00f1o via temperatures at least 0.5\u00b0C above normal plus atmospheric coupling (e.g., weakened trade winds and shifted rainfall). Due to accelerating climate change and widespread ocean warming, NOAA now emphasizes the Relative Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (RONI)<\/strong>. RONI uses a 30- year baseline<\/strong> but measures how warm<\/strong> the east- central Pacific is relative to the rest of the tropical oceans<\/em>, because that contrast better drives the weather impacts of interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA projects a high chance (about 83% for the October- December 2026 average) that the three- month RONI anomaly will reach +2.5\u00b0C or higher. That threshold would make it the strongest in NOAA\u2019s records (back to 1950), surpassing the major events of 1982- 83, 1997- 98, and 2015- 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of early October discussions, it was strengthening, with recent Ni\u00f1o-region anomalies already very high (e.g., conventional weekly Ni\u00f1o 3.4 readings around +3\u00b0C or more in some reports).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the rankings differ<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n