{"id":478972,"date":"2026-10-14T10:22:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T17:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=478972"},"modified":"2026-10-14T10:22:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T17:22:53","slug":"ace-index-reveals-a-decrease-not-increase-in-northern-hemsisphere-tropical-cylones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=478972","title":{"rendered":"ACE Index reveals a DECREASE, not increase, in Northern Hemsisphere tropical cylones."},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A
Hurricane Laura from Space. Extremely detailed and realistich high resolution 3d illustration.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven\u2019t heard what\u2019s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it\u2019s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IOW, the average over the last 6 years out there has been as feeble as our Atlantic Basin is this year in total ACE. This is because a large-scale event is reducing, not increasing, tropical activity and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite of what you are being told. I will show those numbers later<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But first, in the western Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Average ACE for 2019\u20132025: approximately 209.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The north Atlantic this year is about 100 ACE points below average (season may not be done yet).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the point is, the western Pacific, the busiest basin in the world, up until this year, is averaging almost as far below normal as the Atlantic is this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are you aware of this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the Northern Hemisphere ACE index (where most of the global ACE occurs) since 2019 is averaging 13% below normal (it\u2019s averaged 497; normal is 571).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, the total ACE index has been significantly below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ace\/storm in that time is 7.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the previous 20 years, it was 9.04.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AI conclusion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent Northern Hemisphere seasons have had both fewer\/less intense systems overall and less ACE generated per named storm. The drop shows up in both the seasonal totals and the intensity-duration metric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, tropical cyclones are not getting worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which fits with the ideas I have put forth that the nature of the warming, more in higher latitudes than lower, and more poleward than toward the equator, is leading to a more stable climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can\u2019t claim overall it\u2019s getting worse if it\u2019s not. Fewer storms globally and less intense, is not more storms and more intense. Although, with some of the things going on today, someone will argue that is not true. Fill in the blanks for your favorite example of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media ignores this and simply pushes any big event, of which there were more before. They ignore that western Pacific and activity has been decreasing, not increasing. You only hear about it when there is some kind of major storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major balancing act is occurring here. This year, for instance, is likely to end as a record-high year for ACE in the eastern Pacific. Even when they don\u2019t hit the U.S., storms contribute to wave action that can cause major flooding in Southern California. Waves radiate outward from tropical cyclones, so Marie and Rachel got out to the southwest of California, and the wave action piles up when it reaches the coast. It\u2019s not climate change. In fact, here is Grok\u2019s response to the question of when I first warned of what was going to happen with Rachel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

September 30, 2026, is the earliest clear public statement by Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) specifically warning that Tropical Storm Rachel would produce significantly larger waves (and related coastal impacts).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a 10-day warming<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The flooding is indirectly related to the strong El Ni\u00f1o because it leads to more tropical cyclones.  We knew that before the season and warned back in April that storms would hit Mexico this year. In the Atlantic, the El Ni\u00f1o plus the configuration of the Atlantic SST (sea surface temperature) has led to the down year. But the point is, someone always has a down year. What has been significant is it\u2019s been mainly in the busiest basin on the planet, and it\u2019s never reported on because it\u2019s a sign of tranquility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the Northern Hemisphere overall, there is more down than up as the numbers clearly show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said, the Atlantic sea surface temperature configuration (something we talked about in the pre-season) has a lot to do with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look at the El Ni\u00f1o of 2023:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Healthy El Ni\u00f1o, but the water is warm through the tropics in a way that encourages development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, most of the action was out to sea; the number of storms and the ACE index were way above normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Named storms: 20<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • ACE index: 148.2<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Normal is 14 storms and ACE 123.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Now look at this year:<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"Map<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Very warm water to the north. Sure, there is a strong El Ni\u00f1o, but we have had only 9 storms and an ACE near 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The strong El Ni\u00f1o of 2015 had 11 storms and an ACE of 62.7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The strong El Ni\u00f1o of 1997 had eight storms and an ACE of 40.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This year sticks out like a sore thumb, and it\u2019s because of the way its warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, the way the Atlantic is warm this year is helping to cut it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Next year, we are already thinking it looks like a blend of 1998 and 2024, both high-impact years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Bottom line: The idea that tropical cyclones are becoming more numerous and more intense is the opposite of what has been happening as the Earth warms. And it points to the fact that the way it\u2019s warming promotes a more stable climate overall.  More stable lapse rates and less zonal available potential energy are the opposite of what is needed for the anarchy that man-made global warming pushers want to brainwash people into believing (which they have in many cases, with the aid of media with a lack of integrity to actually look at the total picture). Tropical cyclones are yet another example of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven\u2019t heard what\u2019s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it\u2019s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":478973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how recent trends in tropical cyclones and climate patterns reveal a decline in storm activity despite media claims of increasing intensity.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Tropical Cyclones: Understanding Recent Decreases in Intensity","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826481,691819287,691821768,691846368,691846366,691846367],"class_list":["post-478972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace","tag-el-nino-2","tag-global-sea-surface-temperature-sst","tag-marie-and-rachel","tag-northern-hemsisphere","tag-tropical-cylones","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-20Bm","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":298146,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298146","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":0},"title":"Global Historical Hurricane & Cyclone Statistics Establish that 2023 Experienced a Very \u201cNormal Year.\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/22\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA concocted an array of \u201cSelected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events\u201d for year 2023 that are shown below as prominently featured in their Annual 2023 Global Climate Report.","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00hurricanes.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00hurricanes.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00hurricanes.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00hurricanes.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/00hurricanes.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417331,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417331","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":1},"title":"2025 global tropical cyclone season debunks climate hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/14\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Tropical cyclones have become a pawn in the man-made climate change game. If you ever want to gauge deception and ignorance as a metric, you can find it here. I aim to show the GLOBAL reality of this season in the tropics to counter the propaganda, sadly, on both sides,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"ACE\/STORM\"","block_context":{"text":"ACE\/STORM","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ace-storm"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408403,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408403","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":2},"title":"False, Santa Fe New Mexican, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing Higher Insurance Rates or Dropped Coverage","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article posted at the\u00a0Santa Fe New Mexican\u00a0(SFNM), \u201cClimate change and the coming real estate calamity,\u201d claims that climate change is causing an increase in extreme and damaging weather, which then causes homes to be uninsurable. This is false. There has been no increase in extreme weather alongside the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOFNtUzu2Fh-WhHAxiTpJOUbDdXU_ywvhIs0XWTEvvo2UXhHzbU26P3zBkoPGWJGTX3F6RjxsrdGIBpKMcLj2ofolyGj7ttP3OcxLpldAz7v6Y2aj6H4hii6AyQlkwd-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOFNtUzu2Fh-WhHAxiTpJOUbDdXU_ywvhIs0XWTEvvo2UXhHzbU26P3zBkoPGWJGTX3F6RjxsrdGIBpKMcLj2ofolyGj7ttP3OcxLpldAz7v6Y2aj6H4hii6AyQlkwd-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOFNtUzu2Fh-WhHAxiTpJOUbDdXU_ywvhIs0XWTEvvo2UXhHzbU26P3zBkoPGWJGTX3F6RjxsrdGIBpKMcLj2ofolyGj7ttP3OcxLpldAz7v6Y2aj6H4hii6AyQlkwd-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOFNtUzu2Fh-WhHAxiTpJOUbDdXU_ywvhIs0XWTEvvo2UXhHzbU26P3zBkoPGWJGTX3F6RjxsrdGIBpKMcLj2ofolyGj7ttP3OcxLpldAz7v6Y2aj6H4hii6AyQlkwd-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOFNtUzu2Fh-WhHAxiTpJOUbDdXU_ywvhIs0XWTEvvo2UXhHzbU26P3zBkoPGWJGTX3F6RjxsrdGIBpKMcLj2ofolyGj7ttP3OcxLpldAz7v6Y2aj6H4hii6AyQlkwd-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C880&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421742","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":3},"title":"Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/17\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Back in 2012,\u00a0Jessica Weinkle,\u00a0Ryan Maue, and I published the\u00a0first peer-reviewed paper\u00a0presenting a time series of global tropical cyclone landfalls of hurricane strength.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate hype\"","block_context":{"text":"climate hype","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-hype"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417032,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417032","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":4},"title":"Northern Hemisphere tropical activity in 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Second year in a row with below-normal tropical activity across the Northern Hemisphere\u2026 western Pacific Ocean leads the way with its seventh straight down year\u2026no hurricanes hit the US for the first time in a decade","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Screenshot-2025-12-11-193344.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":411107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107","url_meta":{"origin":478972,"position":5},"title":"The AP Gets Hurricanes Wrong, Again, Melissa\u2019s Intensity Is Not Proof of Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/31\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a widely published\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0(AP) article,\u00a0\u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d\u00a0reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Hurricane-Laura-from-space-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1280&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=478972"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":478990,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/478972\/revisions\/478990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/478973"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=478972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=478972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=478972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}