{"id":476843,"date":"2026-10-05T06:58:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=476843"},"modified":"2026-10-05T06:58:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:58:46","slug":"antarcticas-last-great-unknown-holds-a-4-metre-climate-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=476843","title":{"rendered":"Antarctica\u2019s Last Great Unknown Holds a 4-Metre Climate Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"476844\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=476844\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;\\u00fe&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Signature: 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&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 Antarctica\u2019s Last Great Unknown Holds a 4-Metre Climate Threat\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Signature: 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&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Aerial view of a massive ice shelf with cracks, revealing dark water below, illuminated with golden reflections under a cloudy sky.\" class=\"wp-image-476844\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/0-Antarcticas-Last-Great-Unknown-Holds-a-4-Metre-Climate-Threat.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>East Antarctica\u2019s Wilkes Subglacial Basin (also called Antarctica\u2019s \u201clast great unknown\u201d) holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by an estimated 3- 4 metres and is far less understood than other parts of the continent, prompting a major international call for urgent research.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A review paper led by Professor Matt King (<strong>University of Tasmania and Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science<\/strong>) and co- authored by researchers from 14 countries, published in Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment (around late September 2026), synthesizes geology, oceanography, climate science, satellite data, and ice- sheet modelling. It highlights major observational gaps that prevent confident predictions of how quickly the region could change or what climate thresholds might trigger large- scale ice retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key points include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The basin is roughly 1,400 km long by 400 km wide (about half the size of New South Wales, Australia). Much of its ice rests on bedrock deeper than 2,000 m below sea level in places, and the bed deepens inland, a geometry that can enable self- sustaining \u201crunaway\u201d retreat once ocean- driven melting begins at the margins. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Access is extremely difficult due to persistent sea ice. No ship has come within ~150 km of the front of the key Cook Glacier; there is little or no in-situ seafloor mapping or ocean- condition data near the ice edge. Few (if any) living scientists have visited core parts of the region. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Geological evidence indicates substantial retreat during past warmer periods (e.g., the mid- Pliocene, when CO\u2082 levels were roughly comparable to recent values). Sparse modern observations show increasing thinning of the Cook Glacier since the 1990s, with current ice discharge around 40 billion tonnes per year. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>East Antarctica was long viewed as more stable than West Antarctica, but this region shares similar vulnerabilities. Melting here could also disrupt broader ocean circulation and the global climate system, though major collapse is not expected this century under current projections. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors urge a coordinated international campaign (not a single- nation effort) to map the bed and seafloor, improve ocean and ice observations, and refine models. Better understanding would reduce uncertainty for sea- level planning, especially for coastal communities in Australia, the Pacific, and elsewhere. The basin lies largely within the Australian Antarctic Territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the <strong>\u201cclimate threat\u201d<\/strong> is the combination of the basin\u2019s large ice volume, its potentially unstable bed geometry, evidence of past sensitivity to warming, and the current near- total lack of critical local data needed for reliable future projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The runaway (or self- sustaining) ice retreat mechanism<\/strong> is primarily the <strong>Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)<\/strong>. It occurs in marine-based ice sheets, those grounded on bedrock that lies below sea level, when the bed slopes downward (deepens) toward the interior of the ice sheet. This is called a retrograde or reverse-sloping bed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This geometry is a key feature of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (and parts of West Antarctica, such as the Thwaites Glacier region). Once triggered, the process can continue even if the original climate forcing stabilizes or weakens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Step- by- step mechanism<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Grounding line and ice flux basics<\/strong><br>The grounding line is the transition zone where grounded ice (resting on the bed) becomes thin enough to float and form an ice shelf. Ice flux (discharge into the ocean) across the grounding line increases strongly with ice thickness there. Thicker ice flows outward faster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Initial trigger (usually ocean- driven)<\/strong><br>Warmer ocean water reaches the ice- shelf base or grounding zone and increases basal melting. This thins the ice shelf, reducing its <strong>\u201cbuttressing\u201d <\/strong>effect (the resistance that slows the outflow of grounded ice). The ice upstream accelerates, thins, and the grounding line begins to retreat inland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Positive feedback on a retrograde bed<\/strong><br>On a retrograde slope, as the grounding line moves inland it encounters progressively deeper bedrock. This means the ice at the new grounding-line position is thicker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Thicker ice \u2192 higher discharge flux \u2192 faster mass loss.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Greater mass loss \u2192 further thinning and additional grounding-line retreat.<br>This is a self- reinforcing positive feedback loop. Theoretical analyses (e.g., Schoof 2007) show that, under these conditions, the grounding line is inherently unstable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Self- sustaining (runaway) phase<\/strong><br>Once the grounding line retreats past certain topographic<strong> \u201cpinning points\u201d<\/strong> (localized high points or ridges that temporarily stabilize it), the feedback can drive continued retreat for decades to millennia, even without further ocean warming. Model projections for the Wilkes Subglacial Basin indicate possible retreat rates of up to ~1 km per year in such phases, though exact timings remain highly uncertain due to sparse data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Additional related processes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ice- shelf weakening or collapse<\/strong> often initiates or accelerates the process by removing buttressing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Buoyancy- driven effects<\/strong> can produce very rapid short- term pulses of grounding-line retreat (hundreds of metres per day in paleo- records) across especially flat beds, when the ice approaches full flotation. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A separate (and still debated) process, <strong>Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI)<\/strong>, involves structural collapse of tall, exposed ice cliffs once ice shelves disappear; it can potentially amplify retreat but is not required for classic MISI.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why it matters for Wilkes Subglacial Basin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much of the basin\u2019s bedrock lies well below sea level and deepens inland. Past warm periods (e.g., the mid- Pliocene) show evidence of substantial retreat, and current sparse observations already indicate some grounding- line retreat and ice- shelf thinning. Because of the retrograde geometry, crossing a threshold could commit the region to multi- metre sea- level contribution over longer timescales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the runaway character arises because the bed geometry turns a modest initial retreat into a self-amplifying cycle of thicker ice, faster discharge, and further retreat. Accurate predictions require better mapping of the bed, ocean conditions, and ice properties in these poorly observed regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>There is no precise, well- constrained figure for total ice mass lost from the entire Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) over the last ~50 years, because the region remains poorly observed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Available observations and estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cook Glacier<\/strong> (the main outlet draining much of the WSB) currently discharges roughly <strong>40- 41 Gt of ice per year<\/strong>. It has shown increasing thinning rates since the 1990s (one estimate: ~33 \u00b1 12 cm\/year over ~25 years) following major ice- shelf loss. \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cook West lost most of its ice shelf between ~1973 and 1989 (roughly 1,200 km\u00b2 of ice shelf), accompanied by a roughly doubling of velocity (from ~700 m\/year to ~1,400 m\/year). Cook East has accelerated more modestly (~20% since the 1990s). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rignot et al. (2019) report a small dynamic mass loss of ~2- 3 Gt\/year averaged for the glaciers draining into the Cook Ice Shelf over 1979- 2017. One related analysis notes a combined increase in discharge of ~3 Gt\/year for Cook East and West since 1979. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Broader Wilkes Land<\/strong> (which includes the WSB plus neighboring areas such as parts of the Aurora Subglacial Basin) has contributed significantly to East Antarctic mass loss. According to Rignot et al. (2019):\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wilkes Land lost mass at rates that helped drive East Antarctica\u2019s overall contribution of <strong>4.4 \u00b1 0.9 mm sea-level equivalent<\/strong> from 1979- 2017.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the most recent interval, they analyzed (2009- 2017), Wilkes Land mass loss averaged <strong>51 \u00b1 13 Gt\/year<\/strong>. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Recent reviews of the WSB specifically note<strong> multidecadal grounding- line retreat<\/strong>, ice- shelf thinning, and some collapse of fringing ice shelves, but <strong>without clear large- scale upstream surface lowering<\/strong> of the grounded ice sheet. The basin as a whole still appears relatively close to balance compared with West Antarctica, with changes so far concentrated near the margins.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Context and limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Satellite records (altimetry, gravity, velocity) become denser after the 1990s- 2000s, so pre- 1990 estimates rely more heavily on sparse imagery and have larger uncertainties. Cumulative losses over a full 50- year period (roughly 1976- 2026) for the exact WSB catchment are therefore not reliably quantified in the literature and remain much smaller than the multi- metre sea- level potential stored in the basin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In summary, measurable ice loss has occurred mainly through coastal outlets (especially Cook Glacier) via acceleration, thinning, and ice-shelf reduction since the 1970s- 1990s, on the order of a few Gt per year for the core WSB outlets, but the interior of the basin has not yet shown major widespread drawdown. This limited observational record is one reason scientists are calling for urgent targeted research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB, East Antarctica) vs. Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both are marine- based systems grounded largely below sea level on beds that deepen inland (retrograde slopes). This geometry makes them susceptible to<strong> Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI)<\/strong>, positive feedback in which grounding- line retreat can become self- sustaining. Beyond that shared vulnerability, they differ sharply in scale, current activity, data coverage, and near- term risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Size and Sea- Level Potential<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th>Feature<\/th><th>Wilkes Subglacial Basin<\/th><th>Thwaites Glacier<\/th><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Approximate area<\/strong><\/td><td>~400 km wide \u00d7 1,400 km long inland<\/td><td>~192,000 km\u00b2 (roughly Florida-sized)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Sea- level equivalent<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>3- 4 metres<\/strong> if fully lost<\/td><td><strong>~65 cm<\/strong> if fully lost<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Role in larger system<\/strong><\/td><td>Major East Antarctic marine basin<\/td><td>Keystone of the Amundsen Sea sector; its collapse could unlock additional West Antarctic ice (&gt;3 m total potential in some scenarios)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">WSB holds far more ice. Thwaites is smaller but strategically important because it props up neighboring ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Current Observed Changes and Mass Loss<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Thwaites:<\/strong> Highly active and rapidly changing. It currently loses roughly<strong> 50 Gt of ice per year<\/strong> more than it gains from snowfall (net imbalance). Ice discharge has increased substantially since the 1990s; grounding- line retreat has accelerated; the glacier contributes ~4% of current global sea-level rise. Net loss since ~2000 exceeds 1,000 Gt in the broader basin. Ocean- driven basal melting is intense. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WSB (mainly via Cook Glacier):<\/strong> Much quieter so far. Cook Glacier discharges ~40 Gt\/year. There has been multidecadal grounding-line retreat, ice- shelf thinning and or collapse (notably Cook West ice shelf largely lost in the 1970s- 1980s), and increasing thinning rates since the 1990s, but <strong>no clear large- scale upstream surface lowering<\/strong> of the grounded ice sheet. Dynamic losses remain small (a few Gt\/year for the main outlets). The basin as a whole still appears relatively close to balance compared with Thwaites. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thwaites is already in a phase of rapid mass loss; WSB shows early warning signs but has not yet entered a comparable acceleration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Vulnerability and Timescales<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Both<\/strong> can undergo runaway retreat once the grounding line passes key pinning points.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Thwaites<\/strong> is already responding strongly to warm Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion. Recent modelling suggests it is unlikely to fully collapse this century but could still contribute several centimetres of sea-level rise by 2100; longer- term (centuries) risks remain high, and some loss may continue even if ocean melting is reduced because of past forcing. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WSB<\/strong> has the same geometric vulnerability. Paleorecords show substantial retreat during past warmer periods (e.g., Pliocene, some Pleistocene interglacials). Models indicate that once past thresholds, retreat rates could reach ~1 km\/year, with possible multi- millennial commitment from decisions made this century. However, the timing of any large-scale response remains highly uncertain due to data gaps.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Exploration and Knowledge Gaps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Thwaites:<\/strong> One of the most intensively studied glaciers on Earth. The multi- year International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration has produced extensive fieldwork, oceanography, radar, modelling, and satellite analysis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WSB:<\/strong> Described as Antarctica\u2019s <strong>\u201clast great unknown\u201d.<\/strong> No ship has approached within ~150 km of the Cook Glacier front; seafloor mapping and in- situ ocean data near the ice edge are essentially absent. Few living scientists have visited core areas. This is why a recent international review called for urgent coordinated research.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thwaites is the active, well- observed<strong> \u201cDoomsday Glacier\u201d<\/strong> already contributing significantly to sea- level rise and serving as a potential trigger for wider West Antarctic losses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is a much larger reservoir of ice with the same fundamental instability mechanism, but it remains far less dynamic and far less studied. Its potential impact is several times greater than Thwaites alone, yet the lack of basic observational data means scientists cannot yet confidently predict when (or how rapidly) it might cross a tipping point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In short: Thwaites is the present- day concern; WSB is a high- stakes future risk that is still poorly constrained.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dynamic instability of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet, East Antarctica<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB)<\/strong> is a marine- based sector of the <strong>East Antarctic Ice Sheet<\/strong> that holds enough ice to raise global mean sea level by <strong>3- 4 metres<\/strong>. Its bed geometry (deeply below sea level and deepening inland) makes it potentially vulnerable to unstable, self- sustaining retreat (Marine Ice Sheet Instability).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The review synthesises:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Paleo evidence:<\/strong> Substantial retreat occurred during the Pliocene and other past warm periods, although exact temperature thresholds remain uncertain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Modern observations:<\/strong> Multidecadal grounding- line retreat, plus thinning and collapse of key fringing ice shelves, but <strong>without clear upstream surface lowering<\/strong> of the grounded ice sheet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Future projections:<\/strong> Models show the potential for rapid retreat (up to ~1 km per year) once the grounding line passes bedrock pinning points. Timings are highly uncertain, and decisions this century could commit the basin to multi-millennial change.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors conclude that the potential consequences (sea- level rise, disruption of ocean circulation, carbon cycling, and marine ecosystems) are severe enough to warrant an urgent, coordinated, multi-national and multi- year programme of fieldwork and modelling to close the large observational gaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the scientific paper that prompted the recent press coverage describing the WSB as \u201cAntarctica\u2019s last great unknown.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The full text is behind a Nature paywall and institutional access, but the abstract and the associated University of Tasmania \/ ACEAS press materials provide the core findings that have been discussed in our prior exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Journal information:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/journals\/nature-reviews-earth-environment\/\">Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment<\/a> (published 30 September 2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s43017-026-00827-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10.1038\/s43017-026-00827-6<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Provided:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/partners\/university-of-tasmania\/\">University of Tasmania<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Authors:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Matt_A_-King-Aff1-Aff2-Aff3\">Matt A. King<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Nancy_A__N_-Bertler-Aff4-Aff5\">Nancy A. N. Bertler<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Sridhar-Anandakrishnan-Aff6\">Sridhar Anandakrishnan<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Guilhem-Barruol-Aff7\">Guilhem Barruol<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Michael_J_-Bentley-Aff8\">Michael J. Bentley<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Xavier-Crosta-Aff9\">Xavier Crosta<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Poul-Christoffersen-Aff2-Aff3\">Poul Christoffersen<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Florence-Colleoni-Aff10\">Florence Colleoni<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Laura-Santis-Aff10\">Laura De Santis<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Carlota-Escutia-Aff11\">Carlota Escutia<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Johan-Etourneau-Aff9-Aff12\">Johan Etourneau<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Dimitris-Evangelinos-Aff13-Aff14\">Dimitris Evangelinos<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Fausto-Ferraccioli-Aff10\">Fausto Ferraccioli<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Nicholas_R_-Golledge-Aff4\">Nicholas R. Golledge<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Matt-Harris-Aff5\">Matt Harris<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Petra-Heil-Aff15\">Petra Heil<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Nicole_A_-Hill-Aff2-Aff3\">Nicole A. Hill<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Indi-Hodgson_Johnston-Aff3\">Indi Hodgson-Johnston<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Coen-Hofstede-Aff16\">Coen Hofstede<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Xiaoxia-Huang-Aff17\">Xiaoxia Huang<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Richard-Jones-Aff18\">Richard Jones<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Serena-Lagorio-Aff10\">Serena Lagorio<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Won_Sang-Lee-Aff19\">Won Sang Lee&nbsp; (\uc774\uc6d0\uc0c1)<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Andrew-Mackintosh-Aff18\">Andrew Mackintosh<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Felicity_S_-McCormack-Aff18\">Felicity S. McCormack<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Robert_M_-McKay-Aff4\">Robert M. McKay<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Maxence-Menthon-Aff20\">Maxence Menthon<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Taryn-Noble-Aff2-Aff3\">Taryn Noble<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Marilyn_N_-Raphael-Aff21\">Marilyn N. Raphael<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Stephen-Rintoul-Aff22-Aff23\">Stephen Rintoul<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Martin-Siegert-Aff24\">Martin Siegert<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Craig-Stevens-Aff5-Aff25\">Craig Stevens<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Craig-Stewart-Aff5\">Craig Stewart<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Chris-Stokes-Aff8\">Chris Stokes<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Yusuke-Suganuma-Aff26\">Yusuke Suganuma<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Fiorenza-Torricella-Aff27-Aff28\">Fiorenza Torricella<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Yu-Wang-Aff3\">Yu Wang<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Trevor-Williams-Aff29\">Trevor Williams<\/a> &amp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-026-00827-6#auth-Chen-Zhao-Aff2-Aff3-Aff22\">Chen Zhao&nbsp; (\u8d75\u6668)<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB), a marine-based sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, contains enough ice to increase the global-mean sea level by 3\u20134\u2009m. The geometry of the WSB makes its ice sheet potentially vulnerable to unstable retreat, which could lead to rapidly increasing sea levels as well as meltwater production that could potentially disrupt ocean circulation, carbon cycling and marine ecosystems. This Review explores the climate vulnerability of the WSB in the context of future global warming. Paleo marine-sedimentary and model evidence suggests that substantial WSB ice-sheet retreat occurred during Pliocene and other past warm periods, albeit with uncertain temperature thresholds. Observations show unattributed multidecadal retreat of the grounding line and thinning and collapse of key fringing ice shelves but without clear upstream surface lowering. Projections of ice-sheet extent under future emissions scenarios indicate rapid retreat (up to ~1\u2009km yr<sup>\u22121<\/sup>) beyond bedrock pinning points, but with uncertain timings and the possibility of commitment to multimillennial change during this century. Given the potentially severe consequences of WSB ice-sheet change, a multinational and multiyear fieldwork and modelling programme is essential to reduce projection uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>East Antarctica\u2019s Wilkes Subglacial Basin (also called Antarctica\u2019s \u201clast great unknown\u201d) holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by an estimated 3- 4 metres and is far less understood than other parts of the continent, prompting a major international call for urgent research.<\/p>\n<p>There is no precise, well- constrained figure for total ice mass lost from the entire Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) over the last ~50 years, because the region remains poorly observed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":476844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, Antarctica's 'last great unknown,' and its potential to raise sea levels by 3-4 meters due to climate change.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Urgent Research Needed on Climate Threat from Wilkes Basin","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691846049,691833782,691846046,691846048,691819285,691846047,691846045],"class_list":["post-476843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarcticas-last-great-unknown","tag-east-antarctic-ice-sheet-eais","tag-glaciology","tag-marine-ice-sheet-instability-misi","tag-sea-level-rises","tag-topographic-pinning-points","tag-wilkes-subglacial-basin-wsb","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-2031","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":416122,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416122","url_meta":{"origin":476843,"position":0},"title":"Climate Extremists Ordered by Hamburg Court to Pay \u20ac400,000 In Damages","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Germany\u2019s\u00a0Junge Freiheit reports\u00a0that the Hamburg Regional Court (Landgericht Hamburg) ruled in November 2025 that ten climate activists from the group \u201cLast Generation\u201d must pay a total of approximately \u20ac400,000 in damages to an airline.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate extremists\"","block_context":{"text":"climate extremists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-extremists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQN2-952-QcgUuobMAQkWQfUwpHQZumz-wXiTB5pEDDo_3MTFCJ7fhqvCkdCpLkiwh1MzIdiNBBsEIt6jHpAnL39dhu38HAoA-IO9Q1QS0It8W8cvWcNMJHe3MDya2M-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C567&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQN2-952-QcgUuobMAQkWQfUwpHQZumz-wXiTB5pEDDo_3MTFCJ7fhqvCkdCpLkiwh1MzIdiNBBsEIt6jHpAnL39dhu38HAoA-IO9Q1QS0It8W8cvWcNMJHe3MDya2M-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C567&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQN2-952-QcgUuobMAQkWQfUwpHQZumz-wXiTB5pEDDo_3MTFCJ7fhqvCkdCpLkiwh1MzIdiNBBsEIt6jHpAnL39dhu38HAoA-IO9Q1QS0It8W8cvWcNMJHe3MDya2M-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C567&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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\u201cnew normal\u201d from global warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"2021\u20132023 event\"","block_context":{"text":"2021\u20132023 event","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2021-2023-event"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Antarcticas-Brief-Ice-Rebound-Was-Natural-Climate-Variability-%E2%80%94-Not-a-New-Normal.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Antarcticas-Brief-Ice-Rebound-Was-Natural-Climate-Variability-%E2%80%94-Not-a-New-Normal.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Antarcticas-Brief-Ice-Rebound-Was-Natural-Climate-Variability-%E2%80%94-Not-a-New-Normal.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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It depends, says Elon Musk\u2019s AI chatbot.\u201d\u00a0The article highlights how Grok, the AI chatbot developed by xAI, is presenting the debate about the causes and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AI models\"","block_context":{"text":"AI models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ai-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0Screenshot-2025-05-31-181253.png?fit=1200%2C755&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0Screenshot-2025-05-31-181253.png?fit=1200%2C755&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0Screenshot-2025-05-31-181253.png?fit=1200%2C755&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0Screenshot-2025-05-31-181253.png?fit=1200%2C755&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0Screenshot-2025-05-31-181253.png?fit=1200%2C755&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":317694,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=317694","url_meta":{"origin":476843,"position":3},"title":"Water Temperatures, Central Great Barrier Reef &amp; Aren\u2019t the Oceans Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/15\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"I was at John Brewer reef earlier in the month, and so I checked the AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Science) water temperature data for this location. The most up-to-date information is to February 7, 2024, and has been measured at 9 metres. 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post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-103.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-103.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-103.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-103.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-103.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":243198,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=243198","url_meta":{"origin":476843,"position":5},"title":"Thanks, Frontline News, For Debunking Alarming Claims Made About Antarctica\u2019s Temperature and Ice Trends","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article from\u00a0Frontline News, written by Chris Morrison originally for\u00a0The Daily Sceptic, describes the difficulties climate alarmists are having explaining why Antarctica is not warming as quickly\u2014if at all\u2014as climate models suggest it should.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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