{"id":475460,"date":"2026-09-30T14:27:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T21:27:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=475460"},"modified":"2026-09-30T14:28:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T21:28:02","slug":"antarcticas-ice-loss-is-locked-in-this-century-even-at-1-5c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=475460","title":{"rendered":"\u201cAntarctica\u2019s Ice Loss Is Locked In This Century\u2014Even at 1.5\u00b0C\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"475461\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=475461\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;\\u00fe&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Signature: 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&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 \u201cAntarctica\u2019s Ice Loss Is Locked In This Century\u2014Even at 1.5\u00b0C\u201d\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Signature: 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&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A dramatic view of Antarctica featuring icebergs and glacial ice with a cloudy sky, accompanied by the text discussing the irreversible ice loss in the region.\" class=\"wp-image-475461\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A new study concludes that Antarctica\u2019s net ice loss this century is effectively locked in, even under the Paris Agreement\u2019s ambitious 1.5\u00b0C warming limit, and that extra snowfall from a warmer atmosphere will not offset it enough to reverse the trend. This will add to global sea- level rise that threatens low- lying coastal areas.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The article, by Yucheng Lin (City University of Hong Kong) and Robert Kopp (Rutgers University), was published in <em>The Conversation<\/em> on September 30, 2026. It summarizes their research in <em>Nature Geoscience<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Antarctica holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 58 meters (190 feet) if it all melted.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Roughly 1 billion people live in coastal areas, with about 100 million within 1 meter of current sea level and highly exposed to flooding.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Scientists have long disagreed on whether Antarctica will gain or lose mass this century, because warmer air holds more moisture (favoring more snowfall) while ocean warming melts ice shelves, speeds glacier flow, and drives ice loss.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How the study addressed uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ice- sheet models involve a chain of assumptions (emissions \u2192 ocean\/air warming around Antarctica \u2192 ice- shelf melting und or collapse \u2192 glacier sliding over bedrock). Different assumptions cascade into large differences in outcomes, and full simulations are computationally expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The researchers trained a physics- informed machine- learning emulator on the large archive of Antarctic simulations from the <strong>Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6)<\/strong>. This allowed them to rapidly explore hundreds of thousands to millions of combinations of assumptions. They then filtered the results against <strong>satellite gravity data (GRACE)<\/strong> that has measured <strong>Antarctic mass changes since 2002<\/strong>. Only scenarios consistent with observed ice- sheet behavior were retained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Main findings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The viable scenarios consistently show net ice loss from Antarctica this century, even if warming is limited to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extra snowfall does not compensate enough for dynamic losses driven by ocean warming and ice-shelf processes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Greenhouse- gas emissions still matter: every avoided ton reduces the amount of Antarctic ice loss this century, with benefits that persist for centuries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under very high- emissions scenarios, cascading effects (rapid ocean warming \u2192 thinner and weaker ice shelves \u2192 faster glacier flow) could contribute up to ~25 cm (10 inches) of sea- level rise from Antarctica alone by 2100, enough to permanently flood the homes of more than 10 million people.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The three most important physical uncertainties for future projections are: how ice shelves respond to a warming ocean, how ice slides over bedrock, and how quickly the ocean and atmosphere around Antarctica warm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Limitations and implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors note that some processes (e.g., ice fracturing and calving and the evolution of subglacial rivers and lakes) are not fully represented in current models, so the emulator cannot capture them. These could alter the timing or magnitude of ice loss and the window for coastal adaptation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The work provides a faster way to test assumption combinations and offers a clearer basis for the adaptation decisions already facing coastal communities worldwide. Sea- level rise is already driven by Greenland melt, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion of seawater; Antarctica\u2019s locked- in contribution adds to that total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the study reinforces that limiting emissions remains valuable for slowing the rate and ultimate amount of Antarctic contribution to sea- level rise, even though some ice loss this century appears unavoidable based on current observations and modeled physics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"543\" data-attachment-id=\"475473\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=475473\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?fit=2262%2C1698&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2262,1698\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?fit=723%2C543&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=723%2C543&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Diagram illustrating the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, global climate models, and their effects on global warming levels, sea-level change, and Antarctic ice sheet models. Includes graphics of factories emitting gases, a globe depicting climate patterns, and illustrations of ice dynamics.\" class=\"wp-image-475473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=1024%2C769&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=768%2C577&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=1536%2C1153&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=2048%2C1537&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?resize=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-181.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">What different types of models help scientists understand about ice melt, and how they are connected to help predict the Antarctic ice sheet&#8217;s future. On the left, how greenhouse gas emissions change the climate, including sea ice, ocean and atmospheric dynamics, which influence one another and levels of global warming. On the right, what goes into an ice sheet model, including ice shelf melt and collapse and how the ice slides. Every stage adds uncertainty. Credit: Yucheng Lin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6)<\/strong> is a coordinated multi- model effort that produced projections of 21st- century (and some longer- term) sea- level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. It systematically samples uncertainties arising from climate forcing, ice- sheet model structure and physics, parameters, and ice- ocean interactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)<\/strong> is the largest single source of uncertainty in future sea- level rise projections. Under high- emissions scenarios, ISMIP6 ensembles span roughly \u22125 to +43 cm <strong>sea- level equivalent (SLE)<\/strong> by 2100 (or \u22127.8 to +30 cm in core multi- model results relative to a control). Greenland contributions are more consistently positive and better constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Main categories of uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ISMIP6 was designed to quantify uncertainty from:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Emissions scenarios<\/strong> (e.g., RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5; later linked to CMIP6\/SSPs).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Climate models<\/strong> (AOGCMs\/ESMs from CMIP5\/CMIP6 that supply atmospheric and oceanic forcing).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ice- sheet models<\/strong> (structural differences across ~13+ international groups and models).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Parameters and parameterizations<\/strong>, especially for ice- ocean interactions (basal melt under ice shelves).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ice- climate interactions<\/strong> (how models translate ocean thermal forcing into melt rates, grounding- line migration, etc.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Quantified contributions to uncertainty (Antarctica)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analyses of the ISMIP6 ensemble (focusing on additional dynamic mass loss driven by changing oceanic conditions) break down total uncertainty at 2100 approximately as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th>Source of uncertainty<\/th><th>Share of total (AIS scale)<\/th><th>Notes \/ glacier-scale variation<\/th><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Choice of ice- sheet model<\/strong><\/td><td>~52%<\/td><td>Dominant overall. Ranges 14% (some ice streams) to 56% (Pine Island Glacier). Reflects differences in physics, resolution, sliding laws, calving, initial ice-shelf extent, and treatment of melt near the grounding line.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Ice- climate interaction<\/strong><\/td><td>~22%<\/td><td>Includes melt parameterization choice\/calibration and simulated ice- shelf geometries. Higher for sensitive glaciers (e.g., ~36- 39% for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites).<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Choice of climate model<\/strong><\/td><td>~13% (rising over time)<\/td><td>Grows through the century. Highly variable by glacier (4% for Thwaites to 53% for Whillans Ice Stream).<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Other important contributors include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ocean- induced basal melt rates<\/strong> and their calibration (often based on conditions outside ice-shelf cavities).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Initial ice- shelf extent<\/strong> (varies by a factor of ~2.5 across models).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Model spatial resolution<\/strong> and numerical treatment near the grounding line.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Basal sliding laws<\/strong> (e.g., Weertman, Coulomb, or hybrid) and related parameters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Calving and ice- shelf collapse<\/strong> representations (ISMIP6 used idealized schemes; many models lack full hydrofracture or marine ice- cliff instability processes). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key vulnerable glaciers identified include Thwaites and Pine Island (West Antarctica) plus Totten and Moscow University (East Antarctica), which show high sensitivity to ice-shelf basal melt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Differences between Greenland and Antarctica<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Greenland:<\/strong> Mass loss is more strongly driven by surface mass balance (atmospheric forcing). Model and climate uncertainties are substantial, but the sign is consistently positive. Ocean forcing plays a secondary role in the<strong> ISMIP6 design<\/strong>. One analysis attributes spreads of ~40 mm (ice-sheet model), ~36 mm (climate model), and ~19 mm (ocean forcing) under<strong> RCP8.5.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Antarctica:<\/strong> Competing effects of increased snowfall (atmospheric warming) versus ocean- driven dynamic loss creates sign uncertainty and weaker scenario dependence in many ensembles. Ocean forcing and ice-dynamics response dominate the spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Known limitations and gaps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Incomplete process representation:<\/strong> Many simulations omit or simplify ice fracturing and calving, subglacial hydrology\/lakes\/rivers, tidal water intrusion beyond the grounding line, and full <strong>marine ice- cliff instability (MICI)<\/strong>. These can alter rates of ice discharge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Underestimation of uncertainty:<\/strong> Some critiques note that the ensemble may under- sample parametric uncertainty or be biased low relative to recent observations of mass loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Computational constraints:<\/strong> Full exploration of all combinations is expensive, which is why later work (including machine- learning emulators trained on ISMIP6 archives) has been used to expand sampling, as in the recent study on locked- in Antarctic loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Forcing biases:<\/strong> Climate- model biases in polar ocean and atmosphere fields, and how melt rates are calibrated from them, remain major issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Longer projections (to 2300)<\/strong> show even larger spreads (e.g., \u22120.6 to +4.4 m under high emissions in some ensembles), with melt sensitivity and dynamic response factors explaining much of the variance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How ISMIP6 addressed (and continues to inform) these issues<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The protocol used<strong> \u201cstandard\u201d experiments<\/strong> with prescribed melt parameterizations (sampling low\/mid\/high parameter values) and <strong>\u201copen\u201d experiments<\/strong> allowing groups to use their preferred schemes. Forcing came from a curated subset of CMIP models selected for polar skill. Results fed into IPCC assessments and subsequent studies that refine or extend the ensemble (e.g., more comprehensive sampling of melt sensitivity or climate- ice interactions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, ISMIP6 showed that <strong>ice- sheet model structural differences and ice- ocean coupling are the leading sources of uncertainty for Antarctica<\/strong>, while climate forcing and surface processes matter more for Greenland. Reducing these uncertainties requires better observations of sub-shelf melt and grounding-line processes, improved basal sliding and calving physics, higher- resolution models, and tighter constraints from satellite mass- change records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"475492\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=475492\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?fit=2262%2C1272&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2262,1272\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing observations of Antarctic land ice mass changes from 2002 to 2025, with a blue graph indicating an average mass loss of -135 gigatons per year. The color gradient illustrates regions of ice mass change.\" class=\"wp-image-475492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=2048%2C1152&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-182.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">NASA&#8217;s Grace satellite has tracked ice mass loss over the years. Credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/31158\/#media_group_312023\">NASA<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The machine learning model<\/strong> referenced in the <em>The Conversation<\/em> article (and the underlying Nature Geoscience study by Yucheng Lin, Robert Kopp, and colleagues) is a<strong> physics- informed machine learning emulator<\/strong> trained on the large archive of Antarctic ice- sheet simulations from ISMIP6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Purpose and design<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Full ice- sheet models are computationally expensive, one simulation can take days on a supercomputer,so exploring every combination of physical assumptions (emissions scenarios, climate model forcings, basal sliding laws, ice-shelf melt parameterizations, etc.) is impractical. The emulator acts as a fast surrogate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It learns the mapping from each simulation\u2019s physical assumptions\/inputs to its outcomes (primarily sea- level contribution or ice- mass change).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Once trained, it evaluates in a fraction of a second while retaining accuracy comparable to the original numerical models.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This enables running <strong>millions of combinations and filtering<\/strong> hundreds of thousands of possible futures against satellite gravity observations (GRACE\/GRACE-FO mass-change data since 2002).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only scenarios consistent with the observed ice- sheet behavior are retained. This<strong> \u201ctransient calibration\u201d<\/strong> or bias- correction step is central to the study\u2019s finding that net Antarctic ice loss this century is locked in even under low- warming pathways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key capabilities highlighted in the work<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Systematic quantification of cascading uncertainties:<\/strong> It traces how each physical assumption propagates into spatiotemporally variable sea-level rise uncertainties.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bias correction:<\/strong> By calibrating to the observed long- term Antarctic mass- loss rate (approximately 0.44 mm\/yr sea- level equivalent, climate- variability corrected, 2002- 2021), the approach reduces projection uncertainty (by ~30- 42% in the 5th- 95th percentile range in related analyses) and increases median sea- level contributions relative to uncorrected ensembles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Identification of dominant uncertainty drivers:<\/strong> AOGCM (climate model) selection, basal sliding laws, and ice- shelf basal melt parameterizations emerge as primary sources.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Scenario dependence and tail risks:<\/strong> Higher emissions produce greater mass loss (with high probability). Under very high- emissions pathways, the upper tail reaches ~25 cm of Antarctic contribution by 2100 in some bias- corrected results.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The preprint describing this work is titled <strong>\u201cBias-corrected Antarctic sea-level projections reveal greater impact of historical warming\u201d <\/strong>(Lin et al.). It emphasizes that historical warming has already committed the Antarctic Ice Sheet to continued net mass loss through 2100 with high probability (P \u2265 0.92 even under aggressive mitigation such as SSP1-1.9), unlike some prior uncorrected ensembles that allowed for possible net gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Broader context of ML emulators for ice sheets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similar techniques have been applied elsewhere in the ISMIP6 ecosystem and related research:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Neural networks, LSTMs, Gaussian processes, and graph convolutional networks have been used to emulate ISMIP6 ensembles, regional sea- level fingerprints (GRD effects), surface mass balance, or specific glaciers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u201cPhysics- informed\u201d <\/strong>approaches incorporate physical constraints (mass conservation, flow laws, etc.) rather than treating the problem as a pure black-box regression, improving physical consistency and data efficiency.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this study, the emulator\u2019s speed and ability to perform large- scale sampling and observational constraint are what allowed the authors to conclude that extra snowfall will not reverse the locked- in ice loss and that emissions reductions still matter for limiting the rate and magnitude of Antarctic contributions to sea- level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is the largest source of uncertainty in sea- level rise projections. Uncertainties cascade through emissions scenarios, atmosphere\u2013 ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ice-sheet dynamics, and sea- level physics. Traditional intercomparison ensembles can be biased toward common modelling choices regardless of observational consistency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This study uses a <strong>machine- learning emulation framework<\/strong> trained on ISMIP6 simulations to quantify how each individual physical assumption propagates into projection uncertainty. It also applies Bayesian calibration against satellite observations to reduce bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key findings:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is <strong>very likely (\u22650.92 probability)<\/strong> that the AIS is committed to net mass loss by 2100, <strong>even under aggressive emissions- reduction scenarios.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher emissions drive greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100 (\u22650.89 probability), elevating near- term coastal risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under very high- emissions scenarios, cascading mechanisms consistent with satellite observations could produce <strong>up to 25.4 cm of sea- level rise by 2100<\/strong> (95th percentile; median = 15.7 cm).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Managing these risks requires rapid emissions reductions plus better constraints on AOGCM selection, basal sliding laws, and ice- shelf melt parameterizations (the primary uncertainty drivers identified).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Core approach<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The authors built a physics- informed machine-learning emulator on the ISMIP6 archive. This allowed them to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rapidly explore millions of combinations of modelling assumptions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Systematically attribute uncertainty to specific choices (e.g., sliding laws ~21%, ice-shelf melt parameterizations ~20% of variance in raw simulations).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Perform Bayesian transient calibration against GRACE\/GRACE-FO satellite mass-change observations (2002 onward).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Produce bias-corrected, probabilistic projections that better reflect historical performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They examined both raw and drift- corrected simulations and mapped how uncertainties cascade from global mean surface temperature \u2192 AOGCM choice \u2192 ice-sheet model features \u2192 regional sea-level fingerprints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the peer- reviewed scientific paper underlying the <em>The Conversation<\/em> article by Yucheng Lin and Robert Kopp that started this discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Title: <\/strong>Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty- first century<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Journal information:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/journals\/nature-geoscience\/\">Nature Geoscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s41561-026-02102-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10.1038\/s41561-026-02102-1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published: <\/strong>30 September 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Provided:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/partners\/the-conversation\/\">The Conversation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Authors:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Yucheng-Lin-Aff1-Aff2\">Yucheng Lin<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Xuebin-Zhang-Aff2\">Xuebin Zhang<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Nicholas_R_-Golledge-Aff3\">Nicholas R. Golledge<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Robert_E_-Kopp-Aff4-Aff5\">Robert E. Kopp<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-John_A_-Church-Aff6\">John A. Church<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Yi-Jin-Aff2\">Yi Jin<\/a>,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Chen-Zhao-Aff7-Aff8-Aff9\">Chen Zhao<\/a> &amp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-026-02102-1#auth-Chris_R_-Stokes-Aff10\">Chris R. Stokes<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest source of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections, with uncertainties propagating through emissions scenarios, atmosphere\u2013ocean general circulation models, ice-sheet dynamics and sea-level physics. In ice-sheet model intercomparison exercises, these uncertainties\u2014typically attributed to intermodel differences\u2014stem from modelling choices that may bias ensembles towards commonly adopted approaches regardless of observational consistency. Here we quantify how each individual physical assumption cascades into projection uncertainty using a machine-learning emulation framework, which also enables Bayesian calibration against satellite observations to reduce projection bias. Our results suggest it is very likely (\u22650.92 probability) that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is committed to twenty-first-century mass loss, even under aggressive emissions-reduction scenarios. Higher emissions drive greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100 (\u22650.89 probability), directly elevating near-term coastal risks. Under very high-emissions scenarios, we identify cascading mechanisms that could produce up to 25.4 cm of sea-level rise by 2100 (95th percentile; median = 15.7 cm) while remaining consistent with satellite observations. Effective management of these risks to densely populated coastal communities requires rapid emissions reductions and improved constraints on climate model selection, sliding laws and ice-shelf melt parameterizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new study concludes that Antarctica\u2019s net ice loss this century is effectively locked in, even under the Paris Agreement\u2019s ambitious 1.5\u00b0C warming limit, and that extra snowfall from a warmer atmosphere will not offset it enough to reverse the trend. This will add to global sea- level rise that threatens low- lying coastal areas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":475461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how Antarctica's ice loss is locked in this century, potentially raising sea levels and threatening coastal communities, despite efforts.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Antarctic Ice Loss: Locked In by 2100 Despite Emission Cuts","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834946,691845876,691845879,691818153,691845874,691845873,691845875,691845877],"class_list":["post-475460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarctic-ice-sheet-ais","tag-antarctic-mass-changes","tag-transient-calibration","tag-climate-models","tag-ice-sheet-model-intercomparison-project-ismip6","tag-ice-sheet-models","tag-satellite-gravity-data-grace","tag-sea-level-equivalent-sle","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ZGI","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":383514,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383514","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":0},"title":"New Study: Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Will Lead To Widespread Cooling, Sea Ice Expansion","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/17\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have counter-intuitively determined that a melting Antarctic ice sheet serves to mitigate global warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-ice-sheet-ais"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/0NOAAClimategov_Antarctica_locator_map_1860_1.png?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":352132,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352132","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":1},"title":"\u00a0\u2018Global\u2019 Warming? Little Ice Age Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion Is Still Ongoing Across Antarctica Today","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"New research\u00a0indicates there has been no reduction in sea ice in Antarctica\u2019s Robertson Bay (Ross Sea) during the last century. Instead, the frigid Little Ice Age and its expanded sea ice conditions continue unabated through the 20th and 21st centuries.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Antarctica-123.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Antarctica-123.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Antarctica-123.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Antarctica-123.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Antarctica-123.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":398970,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=398970","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":2},"title":"Wrong, CBS and Other Media Outlets, Abrupt Antarctic \u201cClimate Shifts\u201d Are Not New or Necessarily Catastrophic","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/30\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent CBS News article, \u201cAbrupt Antarctic climate shifts could lead to \u2018catastrophic consequences for generations,\u2019 experts warn,\u201d claims that Antarctica is on the brink of irreversible collapse due to climate change, warning that sea levels could rise by meters and that \u201ccatastrophic consequences for generations\u201d are looming. This is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMI_GllZNwtLMfGQo7zTgeWhRPGfyEhY00Cil7Zae_QvPSFs8mS3fIF_S6nrxQmKYfj3rXGKPhyqrfp1G6K1mVhpP-4mzrW1LwFWNKXuOWZ_gl1u0ovFG0pSuifNOBUgJam78rEVVgxYfhlJXoZPZ4eMAst4w-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMI_GllZNwtLMfGQo7zTgeWhRPGfyEhY00Cil7Zae_QvPSFs8mS3fIF_S6nrxQmKYfj3rXGKPhyqrfp1G6K1mVhpP-4mzrW1LwFWNKXuOWZ_gl1u0ovFG0pSuifNOBUgJam78rEVVgxYfhlJXoZPZ4eMAst4w-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMI_GllZNwtLMfGQo7zTgeWhRPGfyEhY00Cil7Zae_QvPSFs8mS3fIF_S6nrxQmKYfj3rXGKPhyqrfp1G6K1mVhpP-4mzrW1LwFWNKXuOWZ_gl1u0ovFG0pSuifNOBUgJam78rEVVgxYfhlJXoZPZ4eMAst4w-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMI_GllZNwtLMfGQo7zTgeWhRPGfyEhY00Cil7Zae_QvPSFs8mS3fIF_S6nrxQmKYfj3rXGKPhyqrfp1G6K1mVhpP-4mzrW1LwFWNKXuOWZ_gl1u0ovFG0pSuifNOBUgJam78rEVVgxYfhlJXoZPZ4eMAst4w-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMI_GllZNwtLMfGQo7zTgeWhRPGfyEhY00Cil7Zae_QvPSFs8mS3fIF_S6nrxQmKYfj3rXGKPhyqrfp1G6K1mVhpP-4mzrW1LwFWNKXuOWZ_gl1u0ovFG0pSuifNOBUgJam78rEVVgxYfhlJXoZPZ4eMAst4w-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377271,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377271","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":3},"title":"Antarctica\u2019s Ice Sheet Stages a Remarkable Comeback","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A groundbreaking study published in\u00a0Science China Earth Sciences\u00a0has unveiled a stunning reversal in the fortunes of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), which gained mass at an unprecedented rate between 2021 and 2023. This marks the first significant ice growth in decades, challenging the prevailing narrative of relentless ice loss and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Ice Sheet\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Ice Sheet","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-ice-sheet"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0view-of-antarctica-ice-sheet.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0view-of-antarctica-ice-sheet.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0view-of-antarctica-ice-sheet.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0view-of-antarctica-ice-sheet.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0view-of-antarctica-ice-sheet.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333199,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333199","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":4},"title":"Redressing Antarctic Glacier\u00a0Porn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/17\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate alarmists are known to recycle memes to frighten the public into supporting their agenda. The climate news control desk calls the plays and the media fills the air and print with the scare du jour.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":331213,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331213","url_meta":{"origin":475460,"position":5},"title":"New Study in journal Nature reveals \u201985 years of glacier growth &amp; stability in East Antarctica","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Currently, the earliest ice-sheet wide mass balance estimates start in the late 1970s3,6,7, and since then all the sub-regions examined in this study have exhibited either an overall mass gain or been relative unchanged.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glaciers\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glaciers","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glaciers"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0East-Antarctica-found-to-be-surprisingly-seismically-active.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0East-Antarctica-found-to-be-surprisingly-seismically-active.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0East-Antarctica-found-to-be-surprisingly-seismically-active.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0East-Antarctica-found-to-be-surprisingly-seismically-active.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0East-Antarctica-found-to-be-surprisingly-seismically-active.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Antarcticas-Ice-Loss-Is-Locked-In-This-Century%E2%80%94Even-at-1.5%C2%B0C.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=475460"}],"version-history":[{"count":49,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475460\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":475513,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475460\/revisions\/475513"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/475461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=475460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=475460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=475460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}