{"id":473013,"date":"2026-09-22T05:23:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T12:23:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=473013"},"modified":"2026-09-22T05:23:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T12:23:33","slug":"climate-collapse-four-billion-to-perish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=473013","title":{"rendered":"Climate Collapse! Four Billion to Perish?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way\u2026. Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century\u2026. The \u2018insurance policy\u2019 against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The world\u2019s most viewed climate website (WUWT) contains a list<\/a> of the exaggerated, failed apocalyptic predictions from neo-Malthusians in the last half century. So I was surprised to see this new prediction making the rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark Campbell, \u201cenvironmental journalist and communicator<\/a>,\u201d posted at his website: \u201cInsurers Say Half the World Could Be Killed by Climate Change<\/a>\u201d (June 11, 2026). I learned of him and this prediction in a LinkedIn exchange where he protested against Michael Shellenberger\u2019s \u201cCaught Pushing an Apocalyptic Scenario They Knew Couldn\u2019t Occur, Climate Scientists Are Now Claiming Their Policies Prevented It<\/a>.\u201d Cambell commented<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Some of the worst misinformation I\u2019ve had the displeasure to read on LinkedIn and Substack. A total misrepresentation of the UN report. This sentence says it all: \u201cThey say the new worst-case scenario is just 3.3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 over pre-industrial temperatures.\u201d JUST 3.3 degrees?! 3.3 degrees would cause the deaths of 4 billion people, according to a report by the insurance industry \u2013 and they understand risk. Check out the 4 Billion Dead movement if you want actual facts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s a scandal of sorts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I would wager that\u2019s the most important story of your lifetime. But chances are, you haven\u2019t even read it, heard it, seen it. It was in the news cycle briefly in January 2025, and came from extremely credible sources. It was reported on by the likes of The Guardian, Grist, and the insurance media but soon disappeared.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Campbell bases his gloomy warning on a report, Planetary Solvency \u2013 Finding Our Balance with Nature<\/em>, published in January 2025 by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in collaboration with the University of Exeter. \u201cThe IFoA is the professional body for actuaries,\u201d Campbell explains,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

who underpin global insurance and pension markets \u2013 so it\u2019s basically the insurance industry, which is why it carries significant weight. They understand the risks. They need<\/strong> to know the facts.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Other Support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wilmar Igl,<\/a> a statistician from Sweden. commented<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

In fact, Professor Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber provided an educated \u201cguess-timate\u201d of the maximum carrying capacity of 1 billion (1 000 000 000) humans under un-controlled global warming at a plenary talk at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 (Schellnhuber, 2015, p. 507).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professor William Steffen, a leading climate scientist and senior research fellow at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, also used Schellnhuber\u2019s estimate for the maximum carrying capacity of \u201chothouse earth\u201d at a recent presentation at Uppsala University on March 16, 2019. However, at present 7.6 billion people are living on planet Earth. Even if these estimates of the maximum carrying capacity are way off and the actual number is 5 billions, it still indicates an existential crisis for future generations. [1]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The catastrophists are out in force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In mid-June, Action Network hosted \u201cThe 4 Billion Dead International Public Call<\/a>,\u201d described here. Doug Grandt contends<\/a> the debate is over:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Don\u2019t waste any more time engaging in this manufactured brouhaha [of skeptics]\u2026 even XOM has acknowledged the foreshadowing of imminent collapse as posted nearby by Rob de Laet<\/strong><\/a> https:\/\/lnkd.in\/p\/gfWYA9VH<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

What does the Brazilian de Laet<\/a>, \u201cCo-LeadeWhat does the Brazilian de Laet<\/a>, \u201cCo-Leader at Climate Cooling Initiative,\u201d state<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions cuts alone arrive way too late. We must also actively cool the planet the way Earth has always cooled itself: restoring forests, water cycles and living landscapes at scale, and financing the people who already protect them\u2026. Where is our plan?r at Climate Cooling Initiative,\u201d state<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EXPECT TWO TO FOUR BILLION PEOPLE TO PERISH
Their risk matrix:
\"\u25aa\ufe0f\" 2\u00b0C or more by 2050: \u201cCatastrophic.\u201d GDP losses above 25%, potential mortality above 2 billion people, ocean circulation severely impacted, involuntary migration of billions of people.
\"\u25aa\ufe0f\" 3\u00b0C or more by 2050: \u201cExtreme.\u201d GDP losses of 50% or more, potential mortality above 4 billion, global tipping point cascade, breakdown of critical Earth climate and social systems.
Exxon\u2019s business-as-usual forecast lands squarely between those two rows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The dashboard already rates the risk trajectory for climate and nature as RED.
So this is where we stand: the fossil industry publishes 2.5 to 3\u00b0C as a routine market outlook, and the actuarial profession tells us that range means civilizational breakdown. Both documents are public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions cuts alone arrive way too late. We must also actively cool the planet the way Earth has always cooled itself: restoring forests, water cycles and living landscapes at scale, and financing the people who already protect them\u2026. Where is our plan?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way. Remember what Obama\u2019s two-term science advisor John Holdren said? Back in the 1980s, he forecast<\/a> that as many as a billion people could perish from climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century by such names<\/a> as Mao Zedong, Adolf Hitler, and Joseph Stalin. The \u2018insurance policy\u2019 against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] References<\/strong>: Schellnhuber, HJ (2015). Selbstverbrennung. Bertelsmann, p. 507.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steffen, W. (2019-03-16). Climate Change 2019: Rising Risks; Growing Challenges. Uppsala University, Retrieved 2019-05-21 from https:\/\/bit.ly\/2Isb0Ue<\/strong><\/a> .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rees, W. E. (2019-09-18). Yes, the Climate Crisis May Wipe out Six Billion People. The Tyee Online Magazine. URL: https:\/\/thetyee.ca\/Analysis\/2019\/09\/18\/Climate-Crisis-Wipe-Out\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NEP Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) (2012). One Planet, How Many People? A Review of Earth\u2019s Carrying Capacity \u2013 A discussion paper for the year of RIO+20. URL: https:\/\/na.unep.net\/geas\/archive\/pdfs\/geas_jun_12_carrying_capacity.pdf<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

McKinsey Global Institute (January 2020). Climate risk and response \u2013 physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts. (\u201cLivability and workability\u201d, p. 98), https:\/\/mck.co\/2ZuSYcV<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global economy could face 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from climate shocks, say actuaries<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cThe doom industry is alive and well despite a litany of failed predictions along the way\u2026. Statism and statism alone can cause mass destruction and deaths, as proven in the 20th century\u2026. The \u2018insurance policy\u2019 against this is a free society based on private property rights, voluntary exchange, and the rule of law.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":473014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the stark warnings of climate doom as experts predict 4 billion could perish from rising temperatures and failing ecosystems.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Climate Collapse: The Stark Warning of 4 Billion Deaths","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691843308,691818056,691819743,691845602,691818087,691845604,691845607,691845603,691845605,691836511,691845606],"class_list":["post-473013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-apocalyptic-predictions","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-doom-industry","tag-global-warming","tag-mark-campbell","tag-mass-destruction-and-deaths","tag-neo-malthusians","tag-new-worst-case-scenario","tag-uppsala-university-in-sweden","tag-wilmar-igl","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Z3f","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":276695,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276695","url_meta":{"origin":473013,"position":0},"title":"Happy Labor Not Day!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Energy is the resource of resources, the master resource. 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